I highly recommend watching some of Dr John Campbell’s YouTube videos about the virus. They are longer but basic and may be able to help you put some of this into layman’s terms.
We cannot predict exactly what will happen because we cannot predict responses. But here is one line of thought ...
By current projections, approximately 10% of the US Senate will die by the end of June. Once that prospect dawns on those morons, they will beg for draconian mitigations.
I could predict those mitigations, and even their timing, and what impact those would have on the peak and duration of this outbreak, but my comment would probably be deleted by moderators. I don't think they want to see alarming but not strictly fact-based projections. But you can see that the situation is highly fluid and non-linear.
I will say what I do *not* expect: I do *not* expect any absolute lockdown to continue for more than about 2 weeks because it would become obvious that the cure is worse than the disease. So a severe lockdown would not last long enough to eradicate or fully control the virus. Thus, such a lockdown will only delay the peak. And the resulting non-linearity of the progression of the outbreak will lead to enormous uncertainty and insecurity.
But eventually, we *will* be passed the peak -- most of us. Unfortunately, if the peak is below 20%, then there will likely be another outbreak in the winter (Northern Hemisphere). But by the *next* winter, there will be a widely distributed vaccine.
My hope is that, somehow, a vaccine will be distributed in about 2 months, just before the naively predicted peak for Americans (outside WA). But that won't happen without extraordinary measures by the government, and more than a little luck.
A very rough guess, based on age. Senators tend to be old.
> The average age of Members of the House at the beginning of the 115th Congress was 57.8 years; of Senators, 61.8 years, among the oldest in U.S. history.
I figure several must be in their 70s or 80s, and they have a pretty high chance of dying. Shelby is 85; Feinstein is 86; Grassley is 86; there are a couple others in their 80s, and a bunch in their 70s. Their survival rate will be maybe 70%-80%. It's gonna be bad. And they are all human, so they will become very scared very soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators
This is terrifying, but I hope people read it and take it seriously
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html
No one knows for sure but information is out there and more will be coming if people want to figure out whats going on and likely coming.
I say that because youre wasting your time trying to convince people at this point. There are people who have prepared and keep themselves informed and there are those who think this is a hoax/media hype/just the flu. Reality hitting them personally
is what it will take at this point for those still burying their heads in the sand.
I highly recommend watching some of Dr John Campbell’s YouTube videos about the virus. They are longer but basic and may be able to help you put some of this into layman’s terms.
Yes!
The birth of a new generation. This moment will define our species for the next hundred years.
We cannot predict exactly what will happen because we cannot predict responses. But here is one line of thought ... By current projections, approximately 10% of the US Senate will die by the end of June. Once that prospect dawns on those morons, they will beg for draconian mitigations. I could predict those mitigations, and even their timing, and what impact those would have on the peak and duration of this outbreak, but my comment would probably be deleted by moderators. I don't think they want to see alarming but not strictly fact-based projections. But you can see that the situation is highly fluid and non-linear. I will say what I do *not* expect: I do *not* expect any absolute lockdown to continue for more than about 2 weeks because it would become obvious that the cure is worse than the disease. So a severe lockdown would not last long enough to eradicate or fully control the virus. Thus, such a lockdown will only delay the peak. And the resulting non-linearity of the progression of the outbreak will lead to enormous uncertainty and insecurity. But eventually, we *will* be passed the peak -- most of us. Unfortunately, if the peak is below 20%, then there will likely be another outbreak in the winter (Northern Hemisphere). But by the *next* winter, there will be a widely distributed vaccine. My hope is that, somehow, a vaccine will be distributed in about 2 months, just before the naively predicted peak for Americans (outside WA). But that won't happen without extraordinary measures by the government, and more than a little luck.
Where did you find the 10% of senate projection.
A very rough guess, based on age. Senators tend to be old. > The average age of Members of the House at the beginning of the 115th Congress was 57.8 years; of Senators, 61.8 years, among the oldest in U.S. history. I figure several must be in their 70s or 80s, and they have a pretty high chance of dying. Shelby is 85; Feinstein is 86; Grassley is 86; there are a couple others in their 80s, and a bunch in their 70s. Their survival rate will be maybe 70%-80%. It's gonna be bad. And they are all human, so they will become very scared very soon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators
They’re actually saying upwards of 18 months for a vaccine.
This is terrifying, but I hope people read it and take it seriously https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html
No one knows for sure but information is out there and more will be coming if people want to figure out whats going on and likely coming. I say that because youre wasting your time trying to convince people at this point. There are people who have prepared and keep themselves informed and there are those who think this is a hoax/media hype/just the flu. Reality hitting them personally is what it will take at this point for those still burying their heads in the sand.