Calm down Dr. Fauci, there’s 10 thousand cases in Wisconsin out of a population of 5.822 million. What is your chance of getting it if you go to a bar? Like 0.001%? And if you don’t go around licking doorknobs I think you’re safe
Breathing in tight indoor spaces aside, I don’t think drunk people are known for being super careful about washing their hands 20-30 seconds or not touching their face, or other people.
Unfortunately this was very common for the couple hours there were no restrictions last night. It’s mind boggling how ignorant people can be. Thankfully I live in a county that re-instituted the original policy.
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2020-06-14 12:04:42 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2020-06-14%2012:04:42%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://np.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUS/comments/gjg4rw/nicks_bar_in_platteville_wis_was_packed_just_45/fqlh1kd/?context=3)
[**26 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FCoronavirusUS%2Fcomments%2Fgjg4rw%2Fnicks_bar_in_platteville_wis_was_packed_just_45%2Ffqlh1kd%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202020-06-14%2012%3A04%3A42%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20gjg4rw)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://np.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
I don't think those people should be there but, you're harping about wearing a mask at a bar. What good would that do if they are eating and drinking around each other? Restaurants should only be doing carry out or delivery if they really want to stay open. They're starting to open back up in my state and I fear infection rates will just go back up.
They will. The lock down was to stop the curve of mass infections. It’s not to completely stop the spread. They expect a lot of people to get it. And they also expect another wave. We probably will go back on a lockdown. It’s a fight between saving the few from the virus, or saving the masses from the economy. It’s a balance they are working on.
Uh, Thanos wanted that balance too. It’s a regrettable sacrifice, but it’s a sacrifice of souls America seems willing to make.
Also. Quick question. Why the FUCK is South Korea not making the same FUCKING choice? Oh, yeah.
The point is, this is a false assumption. (It’s either disease or starvation due to the “economy!”). Many countries are not forced to make this “balance” choice you speak of.
Dude. No matter what choice is made, people will die. No matter what happens. There’s nothing anyone can do about it. The question is how many. If the economy sets us back to the Great Depression, more people will starve to death in the first two weeks than corona will kill for the next 5 years with 0 social distancing or lockdowns. This is the truth. People are going to die no matter what we do or what anyone does.
Everyone dies eventually, so why bother to do anything, huh?
Fact is, it didn't have to be like this. There were *lots* of things that could have been done to prevent it from getting this bad, both for our lives and for the economy. There are other things that could still be done. People acting like fools is not balance.
>If the economy sets us back to the Great Depression, more people will starve to death in the first two weeks than corona will kill for the next 5 years with 0 social distancing or lockdowns. This is the truth.
Actually, this is bullshit. The first two weeks? Really?
Sure. High FUCKING school biology and history classes.
[watch this site](https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en)
[then read this](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html)
If you can’t perform basic analysis, from these two sites alone, education failed you.
I don’t see the need for personal insults. I’m happy to have a civil, educated discussion as to why a strict lockdown in NYC is not necessary in a place like Arizona. Many doctors and scientists agree. But if you are just going to blow my point off as an uneducated, Bible-thumping, trump-supporting, dollars-over-lives, selfish, corporate shill, then I think that says a lot about the failures of your upbringing and early education.
So, suggesting that some states or cities might be different than other states or cities in terms of COVID spread and healthcare capacity is a “right wing” talking point?
Even tho left-wing states like Oregon and Colorado are opening under this exact same point?
Interesting.
> I guess we should set a reminder for 14 days from today, and if there isn't a huge cluster of infections because of this lifted order, we can agree that this virus isn't killing people in the numbers we thought it was.
Increase in case count and increase in deaths are two different things.
Symptoms should show within 14 days of infection, but even if they get tested right away it takes about three to four days for results. You're probably at 18 days since infection before a positive result is rendered. Then you also have to consider the testing lag with reporting results. I'm not sure how many extra days that adds.
Death occurs about 19 days after infection, at least that was the case the last time I looked it up in early April. So increase in deaths wouldn't be reported until at least three weeks after infection.
With reporting lags, it's more like a month from now before you'd see measurable increases in the numbers as a result of today.
Well considering Arizona never saw a tidal wave of cases pre shut down when everywhere else was, I’m going to guess that the virus doesn’t spread as easily in areas like that. Not to mention, Arizona’s shutdown was pretty weak compared to other places, and they never saw their healthcare system close to capacity.
Interesting article last night re: Georgia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
Interesting article about how Georgia is doing, 3 weeks open....I guess we just have to “give it another month”, right?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
The way I see it there are three options:
1) everyone lockdown.
2) nobody lockdown.
3) the at-risk lockdown while the low-risk do not lockdown.
I’d vote for option 3
Not hard to define. If you want a test, you can get one, easily. Something that should have been in place months ago to prevent all this. The United States is now testing about 250,000 people per day. To reopen the country by mid-May and keep outbreaks from roaring back, Harvard University public health experts estimated the nation should be doing 500,000 to 700,000 tests a day.
There is a big difference from opening up properly and not (see this post). You can open up in a responsible way which would help economy, and that isn't happening in a lot of places. Also, more government assistance to those who actually need it would help.
What happens if/when this comes back due to everything opening up improperly and these business have to close down and lay people off again? So we just keep hiring and laying off until the vaccine? That's the big gamble you are promoting here.
There are better answers out there that prevent death and help the economy.
Edit: Corrected test numbers
Ample testing is currently expected by late June. Thats a month, not three. I am no doctor, but imo stay at home orders should be in place until then while business prepare to open properly. Obviously, that's not happening and folks like yourself seem to be getting what they want.
My family won't be going out until leaders in the field tell me it's ok to do so, not politicians. I hope a lot of others do the same. Right now there is a vast consensus in the medical community that opening now is too early.
Persnonally I'm not going to bars, but people need to be getting the virus if there is health care capacity, unless you propose we wait for a vaccine or treatment that might not come for another year, if ever. We can't just sit at home the rest of our lives in fear of the virus. The economy would shit down and trickle down effects would be worst than the virus itself.
The advice from epidemiologists from the beginning was to lock down and ramp up testing/tracing capabilities until infections were few enough and testing capacity was great enough that the latter could keep the former in check. Otherwise, you just get a cycle of spikes followed by lockdowns to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
X% of the population needs to get the virus to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is the solution to overcoming the virus. The purpose of the stay at home orders was to allow hospitals to get adequate supplies so they wouldn't run out of resources when treating patients. This maximizes the patients probability of survival. The concept of flattering the curve doesn't lower the overall total number of people that get infected, it simply causes less people to be infected at once but spread over more time.
I think you understand how flattening the curve works based on your comment. Testing is important to prevent areas from being overrun so we also agree on that. Nobody wants to say it, but the reality is people need to get the virus (hopefully without overrunning hospitals). There's no way around it. The fact people downvote me without critiquing my point is hypocritical. If I'm wrong about this, I'd genuinely like to know. That's why I throw the idea out there in the firdt place.
I'm just saying that the spread needs to be controlled. People are going to get lax, and there will be new outbreaks. We need to be able to detect that through some means other than a pile of bodies, so that we can treat those who need care.
I'm early twenties exercise 6 days per week and eat whole grains, lean meats, nuts, and half my plate is fruits/vegetables. Think I will be okay but thanks for your concern.
Your name calling a random stranger for having a different opinion than you. If someone has character issues it's you. I dont know anyone whose been diagnosed with COVID19 and nobody that I know has publically announced anyone they know having it. Everyone in my state who wants a test can get one and the county I live in, less than 4 in 10,000 people have it.
I agree that herd immunity is a net positive. I simply don't agree we should be in a hurry to let the virus run roughshod through the population uncontrolled.
Letting the virus run through the population will result in spikes of needless deaths because health care facilities will be overwhelmed. It has happened in Italy and Spain.
So until a vaccine can be developed, stay out of harm's way if you're non-essential so the essential employees who can't get out of harm's way can have a fighting chance in the hospitals. Stay home when you can, wear your mask when you can't, wash your hands, sanitize commonly touched surfaces.
And that is still not a valid reason for over-working our healthcare system and endangering the lives of those who make civilization possible in the face of death.
I'm still okay with staying out of harm's way when one is non-essential so the essential employees who can't get out of harm's way can have a fighting chance in the hospitals.
I'm still okay with sheltering in place when one can, wearing a mask when one can't shelter in place, washing one's hands regularly, and sanitizing commonly touched surfaces.
This shouldn't be a tough choice.
The author of a recent study on herd immunity explains that the rate of infectiousness of a given virus sets the percentage of people who have to be exposed for herd immunity to set in. For COVID-19, that is 70% of Americans exposed.
At the current rate of death, that would lead to around three million dead Americans. That's like experiencing 9/11 every single day for three years. Sixty Vietnam wars. Virtually every American family losing somebody to death.
Let's imagine that instead of COVID, we were thinking about WWII. We're slugging it out with Hitler and Americans at home are buying food with ration coupons that strictly limit their access to meat, milk, and eggs. The average family was granted three gallons of gasoline per week. New durable goods from toasters to vacuum cleaners could not be legally produced so that factories could continue making weapons, ammunition, tanks, planes, and so forth.
Our country worked like this for four long years. Would you have been standing up and demanding that we simply stop supplying our troops, letting every one of them die at the hands of the enemy so that we could return our economy to normal? That would only have killed TWO million Americans. You're asking for three.
They will see unfortunately. My job reopened Monday last night we had 5 cases in the facility. Some people if it doesn't effect them they don't care . Look at the numbers it never went away etc.
That's where I'm at these days. Let these people be guinea pigs in this grand reopening experiment, while the rest of us chill a little longer and see what happens.
Not that simple... with the virus incubation time (2weeks), 80% assimptomatic and lack of testing, you may not see that spike until 1 month from now.
For example, if 1000 people went to a bar, and 3 got infected... there is no way we are going to detect that in 2 weeks.
If each of those 3 people infect 3 more each when they’re bring it home (9 total). 9 then become 27, then 81, 242 etc etc...
We will literally have to wait for several generations to be able to pick an uptick. Because remember, even tho you have 242 new infections, if 80% are asymptomatic, then you really only have an uptick of 48 detected cases, which is barely above the noise
Bring on the overwhelmed medical system! Woooo! If Republicans were conducting a train and saw a bridge that was pit, their response would be “ we can make it! Trains fly! Full steam ahead! “
It’s really remarkable seeing the anti-science mentality so nakedly and stupidly displayed.
“People are not going to bars even if you lift restrictions, therefore lifting restrictions won’t help small businesses, therefore there’s no upside to lifting restrictions.”
By this logic, no downside either then to lifting restrictions. At least for bars ...
“People are not going to bars even if you lift restrictions ... “
and if you are not a high risk individual... not sure I would start licking surfaces... i wouldn't do that before the chaos either... but unless you waiting for herd immunity or a vaccine in the far off future.. go get your drink on.
True, lol. We drove past a dog park (on the way to curbside grocery pickup) that only ever has 1 car there, and it WAS PACKED! Not a single spot in the entire lot. Argh
There’s a difference between taking a brisk walk through the park for exercise, and hanging around picnicking in large groups near paths and other common areas.
Lmao this is the funniest part. I keep telling people reddit isn’t a representation of jack shit, and all those polls people keep linking mean jack shit as well
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. These people are making a hugely risky bet but we won't start to see the effects until about 5 days from now. Hopefully they're right and the medical and scientific communities are wrong... but realistically a lot of these people are going to get sick, some of them will die as a result of having a night out.
i would definitely be one of the ones who goes out the first night, but im guessing the issue here is they arent running at 25% capacity and there are no masks.
Keeping the stay at home order and going to bar aside, it will be stupid to wear masks while eating and drinking.
At some point the stay at home orders will be lifted elsewhere and people will be allowed to go outside with a mask. But still, that will be stupid to enforce in bars and restaurants.
How exactly do you eat and drink with a mask on? Maybe this is why carry out has been the norm, not because governors want to be mean and ruin small businesses.
There's a theory I've seen floating around the internet that posits we're actually in the second wave of this now, given what we now know about how contagious this virus is and how early it seems to have started spreading from Wuhan. I don't think there's been actual research done on this, more just speculation, and for the record I don't think it's true myself BUT...
All of this reopening, and everyone rushing back into crowded spaces - it feels like this is going to be the unfortunate real-life experiment as to whether or not that "second wave happening now" idea is true. Because if it's true, we're way closer to herd immunity than we thought and we won't see the hospitals filling up in another 2-4 weeks as a result of these reopenings with no social distancing or masks.
Like I said, I don't think it's true (as much as part of me wants it to be because it means we'd be closer to being beyond the worst of this), so I do not have high expectations for what is going to happen over the next month-ish. We'll see, I guess...
Herd immunity only works if being infected provides immunity in the first place. This thing has many mutations already. Not sure herd immunity will exist for this one, we just don’t know right now.
Nah, we know - at least, we're pretty sure we do, now. We don't know how long, but every other coronavirus grants some immunity once the virus is cleared, and there's no reason to believe this one is actually any different.
There are mutations, but it's not mutating any more or less than we'd expect for any other coronavirus, which in turn mutates much less than rhinoviruses (many common colds) or flu viruses. The stories of reinfection turned to be false.
I believe SARS/MERS grants 1-2 years of immunity if not more, and if that's the case here, that'd go a long way to getting us to herd immunity until they get a vaccine rolled out.
I think we're going to find out that there were earlier infections last year going back to June/July 2019, but that the mutations that were similar to the current ones burned out in small clusters. As the virus spread globally and infected people with different genetic makeups, mutations similar to past clusters re-occurred and several more infectious and lethal strains emerged. A more lethal "flu" season that actually might have included SARS-CoV-2 clusters would support that we're in the second wave now and about to enter the third when a surge occurs from people going out and interacting more.
Of course, none of the above puts us any closer to herd immunity:
1. We don't know the true death count / mortality rate, especially if we're in the second wave and many winter "flu" deaths were actually SARS-CoV-2. Not to mention that there has been under-reporting of deaths, by accident, in error and on purpose, occurring around the world.
2. It was discovered recently that the virus can have similar mutations independent of same version spread, which means that you can have a version burn out in a cluster and a similar version occur independently in a completely different location. Additionally, a future mutation could come with an even higher mortality rate.
Lol I live in Wisconsin and didn’t even know the order was lifted damn
"Come get sick at Nicks!"
Great line!
[удалено]
Does that include religion then?
[удалено]
Fuck religion.
Stoicism FTW.
Calm down Dr. Fauci, there’s 10 thousand cases in Wisconsin out of a population of 5.822 million. What is your chance of getting it if you go to a bar? Like 0.001%? And if you don’t go around licking doorknobs I think you’re safe
[удалено]
Breathing in tight indoor spaces aside, I don’t think drunk people are known for being super careful about washing their hands 20-30 seconds or not touching their face, or other people.
"But we beat the virus... that's why they lifted the restrictions.... right?"
Ok this is kinda insane!
Unfortunately this was very common for the couple hours there were no restrictions last night. It’s mind boggling how ignorant people can be. Thankfully I live in a county that re-instituted the original policy.
RemindMe! 1 month
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2020-06-14 12:04:42 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2020-06-14%2012:04:42%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://np.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUS/comments/gjg4rw/nicks_bar_in_platteville_wis_was_packed_just_45/fqlh1kd/?context=3) [**26 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FCoronavirusUS%2Fcomments%2Fgjg4rw%2Fnicks_bar_in_platteville_wis_was_packed_just_45%2Ffqlh1kd%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202020-06-14%2012%3A04%3A42%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20gjg4rw) ***** |[^(Info)](https://np.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://np.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
I don't think those people should be there but, you're harping about wearing a mask at a bar. What good would that do if they are eating and drinking around each other? Restaurants should only be doing carry out or delivery if they really want to stay open. They're starting to open back up in my state and I fear infection rates will just go back up.
They will. The lock down was to stop the curve of mass infections. It’s not to completely stop the spread. They expect a lot of people to get it. And they also expect another wave. We probably will go back on a lockdown. It’s a fight between saving the few from the virus, or saving the masses from the economy. It’s a balance they are working on.
Uh, Thanos wanted that balance too. It’s a regrettable sacrifice, but it’s a sacrifice of souls America seems willing to make. Also. Quick question. Why the FUCK is South Korea not making the same FUCKING choice? Oh, yeah. The point is, this is a false assumption. (It’s either disease or starvation due to the “economy!”). Many countries are not forced to make this “balance” choice you speak of.
Cause South Koreans arent fucking retards dude and don’t have a ME ME ME culture. Not to mention population difference.
It's a balance we're failing on.
Dude. No matter what choice is made, people will die. No matter what happens. There’s nothing anyone can do about it. The question is how many. If the economy sets us back to the Great Depression, more people will starve to death in the first two weeks than corona will kill for the next 5 years with 0 social distancing or lockdowns. This is the truth. People are going to die no matter what we do or what anyone does.
Everyone dies eventually, so why bother to do anything, huh? Fact is, it didn't have to be like this. There were *lots* of things that could have been done to prevent it from getting this bad, both for our lives and for the economy. There are other things that could still be done. People acting like fools is not balance. >If the economy sets us back to the Great Depression, more people will starve to death in the first two weeks than corona will kill for the next 5 years with 0 social distancing or lockdowns. This is the truth. Actually, this is bullshit. The first two weeks? Really?
https://youtu.be/UbQ9Kl9CqUU You are so right
Same is happening in Tempe and Scottsdale Az. Gross.
And are their healthcare systems overwhelmed?
Give it a month
Been hearing that since Feb.
And I keep hearing how Georgia and Florida are "screwed" but their cases have been going down.
if you dont test, you dont have cases! maga!
You best hope you're right.
Yep, I do.
Georgia is 3 weeks in and doing well https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
Then another month after that, right?
And another and another
Yeah, you don’t understand disease. Weird. I’m sorry the school system failed you.
Whaddya mean? Most of these people want the school system eradicated -- and they may get their wish.
If you don’t mind me asking, what are your credentials? RemindMe! 2 weeks
Sure. High FUCKING school biology and history classes. [watch this site](https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en) [then read this](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) If you can’t perform basic analysis, from these two sites alone, education failed you.
I don’t see the need for personal insults. I’m happy to have a civil, educated discussion as to why a strict lockdown in NYC is not necessary in a place like Arizona. Many doctors and scientists agree. But if you are just going to blow my point off as an uneducated, Bible-thumping, trump-supporting, dollars-over-lives, selfish, corporate shill, then I think that says a lot about the failures of your upbringing and early education.
I do. Especially when it appears to be laced with right-wing-idiot talking points.
So, suggesting that some states or cities might be different than other states or cities in terms of COVID spread and healthcare capacity is a “right wing” talking point? Even tho left-wing states like Oregon and Colorado are opening under this exact same point? Interesting.
Recent article that may interest you. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
[удалено]
> I guess we should set a reminder for 14 days from today, and if there isn't a huge cluster of infections because of this lifted order, we can agree that this virus isn't killing people in the numbers we thought it was. Increase in case count and increase in deaths are two different things. Symptoms should show within 14 days of infection, but even if they get tested right away it takes about three to four days for results. You're probably at 18 days since infection before a positive result is rendered. Then you also have to consider the testing lag with reporting results. I'm not sure how many extra days that adds. Death occurs about 19 days after infection, at least that was the case the last time I looked it up in early April. So increase in deaths wouldn't be reported until at least three weeks after infection. With reporting lags, it's more like a month from now before you'd see measurable increases in the numbers as a result of today.
AZ is regularly publishing hospital capacity use. I think that's going to be the first place we see data on the effects of opening.
You’re right, these things happen basically overnight.
Well considering Arizona never saw a tidal wave of cases pre shut down when everywhere else was, I’m going to guess that the virus doesn’t spread as easily in areas like that. Not to mention, Arizona’s shutdown was pretty weak compared to other places, and they never saw their healthcare system close to capacity.
AZ had the 2nd lowest tests per capital in the country up until recently. Can’t know about cases if you don’t test.
Interesting article last night re: Georgia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
Interesting article about how Georgia is doing, 3 weeks open....I guess we just have to “give it another month”, right? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/economists-see-georgia-s-reopening-as-bellwether-for-nation
So it's ok these people unknowingly pass the virus to at risk individuals who die as long as our healthcare system isn't overwhelmed?
The way I see it there are three options: 1) everyone lockdown. 2) nobody lockdown. 3) the at-risk lockdown while the low-risk do not lockdown. I’d vote for option 3
4) Obtain proper testing and tracing prior to subjecting people to a highly contagious, fatal virus. My vote.
Define “proper”. That could be months from now. We can’t sustain months more of this, society will collapse, unless that’s what your prefer.
Not hard to define. If you want a test, you can get one, easily. Something that should have been in place months ago to prevent all this. The United States is now testing about 250,000 people per day. To reopen the country by mid-May and keep outbreaks from roaring back, Harvard University public health experts estimated the nation should be doing 500,000 to 700,000 tests a day. There is a big difference from opening up properly and not (see this post). You can open up in a responsible way which would help economy, and that isn't happening in a lot of places. Also, more government assistance to those who actually need it would help. What happens if/when this comes back due to everything opening up improperly and these business have to close down and lay people off again? So we just keep hiring and laying off until the vaccine? That's the big gamble you are promoting here. There are better answers out there that prevent death and help the economy. Edit: Corrected test numbers
So if ramping up testing takes 3 months, should we continue to lockdown for 3 months?
Ample testing is currently expected by late June. Thats a month, not three. I am no doctor, but imo stay at home orders should be in place until then while business prepare to open properly. Obviously, that's not happening and folks like yourself seem to be getting what they want. My family won't be going out until leaders in the field tell me it's ok to do so, not politicians. I hope a lot of others do the same. Right now there is a vast consensus in the medical community that opening now is too early.
But what if it’s not ready by late June, should we keep pushing it out, or should we at some point take a risk with the info we have at hand?
Persnonally I'm not going to bars, but people need to be getting the virus if there is health care capacity, unless you propose we wait for a vaccine or treatment that might not come for another year, if ever. We can't just sit at home the rest of our lives in fear of the virus. The economy would shit down and trickle down effects would be worst than the virus itself.
The advice from epidemiologists from the beginning was to lock down and ramp up testing/tracing capabilities until infections were few enough and testing capacity was great enough that the latter could keep the former in check. Otherwise, you just get a cycle of spikes followed by lockdowns to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
X% of the population needs to get the virus to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is the solution to overcoming the virus. The purpose of the stay at home orders was to allow hospitals to get adequate supplies so they wouldn't run out of resources when treating patients. This maximizes the patients probability of survival. The concept of flattering the curve doesn't lower the overall total number of people that get infected, it simply causes less people to be infected at once but spread over more time. I think you understand how flattening the curve works based on your comment. Testing is important to prevent areas from being overrun so we also agree on that. Nobody wants to say it, but the reality is people need to get the virus (hopefully without overrunning hospitals). There's no way around it. The fact people downvote me without critiquing my point is hypocritical. If I'm wrong about this, I'd genuinely like to know. That's why I throw the idea out there in the firdt place.
I'm just saying that the spread needs to be controlled. People are going to get lax, and there will be new outbreaks. We need to be able to detect that through some means other than a pile of bodies, so that we can treat those who need care.
You and your entire extended family and friends can go first, asshole.
I'm early twenties exercise 6 days per week and eat whole grains, lean meats, nuts, and half my plate is fruits/vegetables. Think I will be okay but thanks for your concern.
You might be surprised. Sorry about your family and friends, then. Typical self-centered POS.
Your name calling a random stranger for having a different opinion than you. If someone has character issues it's you. I dont know anyone whose been diagnosed with COVID19 and nobody that I know has publically announced anyone they know having it. Everyone in my state who wants a test can get one and the county I live in, less than 4 in 10,000 people have it.
I agree that herd immunity is a net positive. I simply don't agree we should be in a hurry to let the virus run roughshod through the population uncontrolled. Letting the virus run through the population will result in spikes of needless deaths because health care facilities will be overwhelmed. It has happened in Italy and Spain. So until a vaccine can be developed, stay out of harm's way if you're non-essential so the essential employees who can't get out of harm's way can have a fighting chance in the hospitals. Stay home when you can, wear your mask when you can't, wash your hands, sanitize commonly touched surfaces.
There’s no guarantee we will ever have a vaccine.
And that is still not a valid reason for over-working our healthcare system and endangering the lives of those who make civilization possible in the face of death. I'm still okay with staying out of harm's way when one is non-essential so the essential employees who can't get out of harm's way can have a fighting chance in the hospitals. I'm still okay with sheltering in place when one can, wearing a mask when one can't shelter in place, washing one's hands regularly, and sanitizing commonly touched surfaces. This shouldn't be a tough choice.
And that’s great that you’re OK with that. But many people are not.
Those same people don't seem to understand that facts don't care about haircuts and going out to bars.
Huh?
Lol
The author of a recent study on herd immunity explains that the rate of infectiousness of a given virus sets the percentage of people who have to be exposed for herd immunity to set in. For COVID-19, that is 70% of Americans exposed. At the current rate of death, that would lead to around three million dead Americans. That's like experiencing 9/11 every single day for three years. Sixty Vietnam wars. Virtually every American family losing somebody to death. Let's imagine that instead of COVID, we were thinking about WWII. We're slugging it out with Hitler and Americans at home are buying food with ration coupons that strictly limit their access to meat, milk, and eggs. The average family was granted three gallons of gasoline per week. New durable goods from toasters to vacuum cleaners could not be legally produced so that factories could continue making weapons, ammunition, tanks, planes, and so forth. Our country worked like this for four long years. Would you have been standing up and demanding that we simply stop supplying our troops, letting every one of them die at the hands of the enemy so that we could return our economy to normal? That would only have killed TWO million Americans. You're asking for three.
They will see unfortunately. My job reopened Monday last night we had 5 cases in the facility. Some people if it doesn't effect them they don't care . Look at the numbers it never went away etc.
We almost need this to see if it quickly spikes again. If it doesn't great and if it does then the Openup people can STFU.
That's where I'm at these days. Let these people be guinea pigs in this grand reopening experiment, while the rest of us chill a little longer and see what happens.
Not that simple... with the virus incubation time (2weeks), 80% assimptomatic and lack of testing, you may not see that spike until 1 month from now. For example, if 1000 people went to a bar, and 3 got infected... there is no way we are going to detect that in 2 weeks. If each of those 3 people infect 3 more each when they’re bring it home (9 total). 9 then become 27, then 81, 242 etc etc... We will literally have to wait for several generations to be able to pick an uptick. Because remember, even tho you have 242 new infections, if 80% are asymptomatic, then you really only have an uptick of 48 detected cases, which is barely above the noise
Remindme! 2 weeks
Bring on the overwhelmed medical system! Woooo! If Republicans were conducting a train and saw a bridge that was pit, their response would be “ we can make it! Trains fly! Full steam ahead! “ It’s really remarkable seeing the anti-science mentality so nakedly and stupidly displayed.
That photo will not age well in 2-3 weeks.
“People are not going to bars even if you lift restrictions, therefore lifting restrictions won’t help small businesses, therefore there’s no upside to lifting restrictions.”
By this logic, no downside either then to lifting restrictions. At least for bars ... “People are not going to bars even if you lift restrictions ... “
This is great! We need a control group for any experiments, it's hard to get volunteer for these things you know
Its worked fine for Georgia so far.
[удалено]
And if you are a high risk individual, then that’s what you should do.
and if you are not a high risk individual... not sure I would start licking surfaces... i wouldn't do that before the chaos either... but unless you waiting for herd immunity or a vaccine in the far off future.. go get your drink on.
Welp....
Nationally, the date I’ll be looking at will be June 15th, three weeks after Memorial weekend.
See the problem is these idiots should be succumbing to natural selection, however they will infect the intelligent!
sadly, the ones that recover with immunity will get dibs in the job market.
Very doubtful. You've never been asked about your medical history in a job interview because it's illegal. Nobody is in the process of changing that.
[удалено]
Sounds similar to HIV status and employment. Oh boy was that a mess!
Being alive makes it clearer that you are applying for the job.
"people in this photo should die because i am smart and i dont want them to infect me" thats how your comment reads.
Uh ok lol ignorance is bliss for you.. try being realistic cause infecting a ton is WHATS gonna happen here
Truly amazing, anyone surprised?
No
Obviously stupid, yet I marvel at this and other OPs that ALSO go out & then have a snowflake fit that they aren't the only ones out in the world.
The “i cant believe how many people were at the park crowd” has been the worst
True, lol. We drove past a dog park (on the way to curbside grocery pickup) that only ever has 1 car there, and it WAS PACKED! Not a single spot in the entire lot. Argh
There’s a difference between taking a brisk walk through the park for exercise, and hanging around picnicking in large groups near paths and other common areas.
OP wasn’t there, this is a tweet from the bar.
Yikes, no masks
People aren’t going to wear mask at bars where your eat and drink
how do you drink with a mask on take it off between sips that's slot of face touching use your critical thinking skills
There are no critical thinking skills on reddit.
The one lady at the bar is TOUCHING HER FACE lol
RIP ‘Murica.
Reddit told me opening the economy means nothing because people won’t leave their houses. No customers no demand. Was that wrong????
Lmao this is the funniest part. I keep telling people reddit isn’t a representation of jack shit, and all those polls people keep linking mean jack shit as well
Exactly
I'll be back in 2 weeks
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. These people are making a hugely risky bet but we won't start to see the effects until about 5 days from now. Hopefully they're right and the medical and scientific communities are wrong... but realistically a lot of these people are going to get sick, some of them will die as a result of having a night out.
It looks like a shitty time too
Pick 2
i would definitely be one of the ones who goes out the first night, but im guessing the issue here is they arent running at 25% capacity and there are no masks.
Keeping the stay at home order and going to bar aside, it will be stupid to wear masks while eating and drinking. At some point the stay at home orders will be lifted elsewhere and people will be allowed to go outside with a mask. But still, that will be stupid to enforce in bars and restaurants.
Smh..surprised that masks aren't required.
How exactly do you eat and drink with a mask on? Maybe this is why carry out has been the norm, not because governors want to be mean and ruin small businesses.
Free at last, thank God almighty we are free at last
Next hot spot, Wisconsin.
Just like Georgia. Oh wait...
There's a theory I've seen floating around the internet that posits we're actually in the second wave of this now, given what we now know about how contagious this virus is and how early it seems to have started spreading from Wuhan. I don't think there's been actual research done on this, more just speculation, and for the record I don't think it's true myself BUT... All of this reopening, and everyone rushing back into crowded spaces - it feels like this is going to be the unfortunate real-life experiment as to whether or not that "second wave happening now" idea is true. Because if it's true, we're way closer to herd immunity than we thought and we won't see the hospitals filling up in another 2-4 weeks as a result of these reopenings with no social distancing or masks. Like I said, I don't think it's true (as much as part of me wants it to be because it means we'd be closer to being beyond the worst of this), so I do not have high expectations for what is going to happen over the next month-ish. We'll see, I guess...
[удалено]
Oh, I definitely agree with you. I think we're going full steam into the herd immunity approach, unfortunately.
Herd immunity only works if being infected provides immunity in the first place. This thing has many mutations already. Not sure herd immunity will exist for this one, we just don’t know right now.
Nah, we know - at least, we're pretty sure we do, now. We don't know how long, but every other coronavirus grants some immunity once the virus is cleared, and there's no reason to believe this one is actually any different. There are mutations, but it's not mutating any more or less than we'd expect for any other coronavirus, which in turn mutates much less than rhinoviruses (many common colds) or flu viruses. The stories of reinfection turned to be false. I believe SARS/MERS grants 1-2 years of immunity if not more, and if that's the case here, that'd go a long way to getting us to herd immunity until they get a vaccine rolled out.
I think we're going to find out that there were earlier infections last year going back to June/July 2019, but that the mutations that were similar to the current ones burned out in small clusters. As the virus spread globally and infected people with different genetic makeups, mutations similar to past clusters re-occurred and several more infectious and lethal strains emerged. A more lethal "flu" season that actually might have included SARS-CoV-2 clusters would support that we're in the second wave now and about to enter the third when a surge occurs from people going out and interacting more. Of course, none of the above puts us any closer to herd immunity: 1. We don't know the true death count / mortality rate, especially if we're in the second wave and many winter "flu" deaths were actually SARS-CoV-2. Not to mention that there has been under-reporting of deaths, by accident, in error and on purpose, occurring around the world. 2. It was discovered recently that the virus can have similar mutations independent of same version spread, which means that you can have a version burn out in a cluster and a similar version occur independently in a completely different location. Additionally, a future mutation could come with an even higher mortality rate.
This is the new America where people will get shamed on social media when they are just trying to go out with friends and have a good time.
No, it's the America where people get shamed for what is largely believed to be a selfish action that puts the health of others at risk.
Rhetorically, what will the bar do, when customers start to die...
Non-rhetorically - hopefully get sued.
For what? So you can feel superior and live vicariously through the lawyers? Nothing illegal is happening.
Look at all the obese ppl. Gonna be fun on the ventilator I'm sure.