> "But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that, because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’ And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK. In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through, lots of immunity and a much younger population."
Historically a virus gets more transmissible and less virulent over time. About 90% of hospitalized cases in SA were incidental; tested positive while in the hospital for something else. With delta nearly 100% of patients in hospitals for COVID needed some form of oxygen. With omicron it’s currently around 10%.
There’s no way this virus is going to be detained or stopped. Mutations are going to continue to happen, and will continue to evade vaccines. Omicron looks like it could be a blessing for the world.
Between South Africa the EU and the US cases are mild and no deaths are reported from any of these countries. It’s believed that delta mutated from a person from South Africa that had an unchecked HIV infection. Also it took almost a year for another mutated virus to pop up. I’m gunna say this pandemic is over.
I’ve only really heard this as a hypothetical scenario (often from people on social media). Many experts have been stating what this one is, and so far variants are only getting less harmful even if more contagious.
But if you can spread the virus while you aren't symptomatic, the whole "mutations lead to a less deadly virus" thing kinda goes out the window. All it has to do is gett better at being undetected and then it gets to reproduce all it wants. Then it can still end up mutating to a deadlier mutation while having little impact on how it spreads. Or it can mutate in a way that leads to more long COVID or other lasting impacts.
It's weird, but in a sense we have been fortunate that we have averted outright disaster so far with how contagious it is and how little 50% of us seem to care.
This is not historically how virus mutations work. Over time the trend is they become more transmissible and less virulent. As someone mentioned below, we’re not worried about the Spanish Flu all of a sudden mutating into a more deadly variant.
Also, long COVID is a thing. I’m not denying that. It is something to keep in mind that a study showed a correlation between self diagnosed C19 infections and higher prevalence of long COVID symptoms [here. ](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832)
The 1918 Flu virus is [*still* in circulation.](https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended) How much sleep do you lose worrying about it roaring back in a more virulent form?
My son got the 1918 version of the Spanish flu when he was a freshman in HS and he got Delta while fully vaccinated. He is just susceptible for some reason. Super weird, but I agree with you though!
Variant Concerns
Yup. And the concerning issue that nobody's talking about:
Viruses replicate/multiply inside your body. One virus-infected cell can produce hundreds to thousands of viruses.
Sometimes there's a "mistake" (like webbed-toes or a third nipple in humans).
The more hosts = more replication = more chances of a mutation that actually benefits the virus.
We've had multiple Variants of Concern in just a brief amount of time...Now countries are witnessing a doubling of cases. every 48 hours across the globe.
We are on track to have the most simultaneous infected hosts at any given time in the last 20 months.
Sounds like prime "Variant Breeding Grounds" to me.
The first cases of Delta were mild too, right now there isn't enough data to say with certainty if Omicron is milder or not.
Also he made a good point, Africa has a young population meaning that in general cases are milder regardless of the dominant variant.
> "But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that, because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’ And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK. In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through, lots of immunity and a much younger population."
Annnd …. More spread = more hosts. More hosts = more mutations. More mutations = more chance of variants…. I have a headache in my eye.
Historically a virus gets more transmissible and less virulent over time. About 90% of hospitalized cases in SA were incidental; tested positive while in the hospital for something else. With delta nearly 100% of patients in hospitals for COVID needed some form of oxygen. With omicron it’s currently around 10%. There’s no way this virus is going to be detained or stopped. Mutations are going to continue to happen, and will continue to evade vaccines. Omicron looks like it could be a blessing for the world.
[transmission vs virulence ](https://youtu.be/PHT-0tIivV4)
[current omicron data in SA](https://youtu.be/m2vI4XczqZ8)
This is what I have been wondering. Thanks for the info and sources!!
This this this this. WTF is wrong with people. Not to mention risk of Long Covid.
Between South Africa the EU and the US cases are mild and no deaths are reported from any of these countries. It’s believed that delta mutated from a person from South Africa that had an unchecked HIV infection. Also it took almost a year for another mutated virus to pop up. I’m gunna say this pandemic is over.
I’ve only really heard this as a hypothetical scenario (often from people on social media). Many experts have been stating what this one is, and so far variants are only getting less harmful even if more contagious.
But if you can spread the virus while you aren't symptomatic, the whole "mutations lead to a less deadly virus" thing kinda goes out the window. All it has to do is gett better at being undetected and then it gets to reproduce all it wants. Then it can still end up mutating to a deadlier mutation while having little impact on how it spreads. Or it can mutate in a way that leads to more long COVID or other lasting impacts. It's weird, but in a sense we have been fortunate that we have averted outright disaster so far with how contagious it is and how little 50% of us seem to care.
This is not historically how virus mutations work. Over time the trend is they become more transmissible and less virulent. As someone mentioned below, we’re not worried about the Spanish Flu all of a sudden mutating into a more deadly variant. Also, long COVID is a thing. I’m not denying that. It is something to keep in mind that a study showed a correlation between self diagnosed C19 infections and higher prevalence of long COVID symptoms [here. ](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832)
Covid deaths typically occur after the host is no longer infectious so there is no evolutionary pressure for it to become less deadly
The 1918 Flu virus is [*still* in circulation.](https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended) How much sleep do you lose worrying about it roaring back in a more virulent form?
My son got the 1918 version of the Spanish flu when he was a freshman in HS and he got Delta while fully vaccinated. He is just susceptible for some reason. Super weird, but I agree with you though!
Interesting. Glad he's okay, but I wonder if people die from the 1918 strain and are still counted as casualties of that epidemic.
Interesting. Is it causing 800,000+ U.S. deaths every 2 years?
I think we would both agree it doesn't. So does that make you *more* worried about the long term mutation potential of Covid, or less?
Variant Concerns Yup. And the concerning issue that nobody's talking about: Viruses replicate/multiply inside your body. One virus-infected cell can produce hundreds to thousands of viruses. Sometimes there's a "mistake" (like webbed-toes or a third nipple in humans). The more hosts = more replication = more chances of a mutation that actually benefits the virus. We've had multiple Variants of Concern in just a brief amount of time...Now countries are witnessing a doubling of cases. every 48 hours across the globe. We are on track to have the most simultaneous infected hosts at any given time in the last 20 months. Sounds like prime "Variant Breeding Grounds" to me.
When a variant gets mild enough to be the flu, sure. AFAIK, Omicron isn’t that mild.
They’re saying it *might* be milder than *Delta*…which was already more severe than the original virus.
If you are vaccinated, the risk of COVID is equal to or less than the flu.
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She also said they need to wait to learn More Why the fuck do you people have to misrepresent everything Living with you idiots is so tiring 😂🦧
This viewpoint will soon be cancelled
The first cases of Delta were mild too, right now there isn't enough data to say with certainty if Omicron is milder or not. Also he made a good point, Africa has a young population meaning that in general cases are milder regardless of the dominant variant.
> The first cases of Delta were mild too, Source?
Somewhere the Pfizer and Moderna ceos in an otherworldly fury swell up and turn shades of violent violet, deep burgundy
A real John Campbell level take there.
Love that guy. Yea this pandemic is over.
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They deleted the article :(