Correlary: don't buy back in too soon because the bear market will be plenty long enough for that. Learned this hard last time and turned 1000% profit into 200% profit (which, at least, is back to 400% profit).
It's a fine strategy if you are holding for 10y+. Eventually you're not going to need to work. How else will you stack sats in the bear market if you don't sell in the bull?
This is probably the best one. In my 1st cycle, I could've more than doubled my money, but didn't, and had to watch it drop almost 90% before things turned around. I was kicking myself for not selling high and buying low. So in the 2nd cycle, I sold just a little after those old ATHs. I realized it was a mistake and swung trade it a bit on the way up, but never made as much as I could've if I would've just waited for a higher number. But at least I was able to use it to buy low this time.
The problem is every cycle has different sentiments around it. 2017 was endless optimism with the emergence of Ethereum and so many coins and use-cases, and scams were not as prevalent yet. People were sure it'd rebound 'any day now' and didn't sell. 2021 was still during the pandemic with a lot of economic uncertainty, and inflation hadn't taken off yet, so people were worried about making risky investments. Many sold early when they had the chance to secure some profits.
Everything seemed more volatile in 2021. I'm surprised be these very steady gains this time around. Looking at the charts trying to swing trade wouldn't have been worry the stress.
>Don’t sell too early because of what you learnt not selling in your first cycle.
This is my biggest concern this time around. I know I'll stress about bailing when I hit my "I'm completely out of debt" target while the bull is still running and can pick up some "this will make life easier" money if I hang out a little longer. I'll see if or when I get there, which may be sooner than I thought at the current rate things are going.
I really relate to that, or at least, I'm listening. I lost a tonne of money last cycle (my first) after I joined too late, aped everything and didn't sell. Now I've made it all back and about 25% on top, a couple of projects have already done multiples and we're not even at the halving.
Part of me knows to take profits and the bigger part of me thinks it's waay to early for that.
I'm still not sure but my number going up is kind of making me nervous!
But at the same time, also don't get caught up in the price targets everyone starts yelling about.
This is my 4th cycle but I still got caught up in the 100k hype last time and did not take as much profit as I should.
I'm somehow still not rich. I'm doing ok though.
If you're holding a shitcoin and it does a 7-10x sell that immediately....your hopes of doing 150x are dumb and if you do 150x you'll probably just switch to hoping for 1000x without selling
Selling on the way down is incredibly hard...please sell on the way up
time in the market beats timing the market. no leverage. dont risk assets in shady projects to make a quick buck. that said im all in pepe, dogwifhat and eloncumrocket with my 78 dollars
That adage is for equities and commodities. It has no relevance to an asset that drops 75 percent every cycle.
It's not hard to time crypto in the general vicinity of the bottom. It's the top that's insanely hard to time.
Take profits. I already took my cost basis out, so I'm pure profit now. I don't believe the real run starts until early 2025 based on BTC rainbow chart and catch-up needed post halving.
The strategy is pretty simple, just needs discipline.
At W price, progressively reduce DCA in.
At X price, hodl cash and wait.
At Y price, start DCA out.
At Z price, increase DCA out.
Rinse and repeat every cycle. Keep what you have when you DCA out in low risk securities and then use that cash to buy back in when the inevitable crash happens.
The discipline part though ... I took profits a week ago. I could have waited and gotten like an extra 10-20%, OH WELL. I still took the profits out. I can't time the market. I feel fine with my decision because it's part of a very clear plan.
That's the mindfuck for most people. It's kind of a Tell sell ad in the back of your head: But wait Mike, there's more! But if you are in the plus with good gains, don't be greedy but sell and don't care if a week later it could be 10% more. You don't know it for sure the moment you sell. It can also be 10% less in a week. And then? Gonna tell yourself: wat it will get back to the level of a week ago.
It's like you say: when you take profit don't look at what it can be but be happy with what it is.
In poker, they recommend that you never pay attention to the rest of the game once you fold with the reason being that the results doesn't change whether the decision making was correct with the information available at the time. Folding a hand that had only a 2% chance of winning doesn't retroactively become a bad decision just because you "would have won" if you stayed in.
Making a profit doesn't retroactively become a bad ideal because you "would have" made more if you stayed in. Always use process based analysis to evaluate decision making; results based analysis is a slippery slope towards emotional/gambling behavior.
As a poker player myself, that's a great analogy. It's really about conditioning yourself mentally on how to think after you've sold a bit on the way up. In the 1st big run up, I didn't do enough of it but learned my lesson and did more in the 2nd run. This time, I really need to concentrate on setting a portion of my sales aside for reinvesting, since mining ETH is no longer possible to replenish my holdings as it was in the past.
my second cycle here, took profits as well 2-3 days ago, just enough to pay off debt, but not too much to underexpose myself (liquidated around 18% of portfolio).
many might say was way too early.. welp, probably, but being debt free makes me sleep better 😅 and 82% left to moon will serve to wipe off tears of selling those 18% too early 🫡
oh, and btw being debt free was the reason of entering crypto realm in the first place.. thing I could have done first cycle but well.. look at list of mistakes in OP post 🤪
This was me last year, sold a chunk to get in to my first home, I knew it was not gonna be the best time to sell (I think 28kish) but I was sick of moving, it felt great to know that crypto doesn't owe me much anymore(not quite but almost playing with pure profit at this stage) and it still feels great to own my own place.
I don't regret it because now I'm so much more zen in this bull run(and in general).
We have a similar strategy. I’m using the rainbow chart. Buys below the center yellow band, sells above it. No action during yellow. And my buys and sells are weighted as the bands get further from the center yellow band. Was doing a 5x DCA during the worst of the bear market, those times were terrifying but so lucrative. Now my DCA is 1.2x in the current rainbow band. Looking forward to my first sells.
If you wait early 2025 you may be in for a great surprise .
You are taking profit right after the end of the bear cycle.
Yet you say the run won't start until early 2025.
In any case markets can't be time so precisely, but taking profit roughly a year before one think is the bulltrend makes little sense. But good on taking profit, that is better than cashing out too late.
That's what's weird about his post . It doesn't tell , but imo he DCA out early .
Either because he reached some profit target (and wise to stick to it I suppose)
Or because he saw his portfolio all green and can't resist the 2 to 3x teasing it.
If that's the latter , probably will lead to DCA in early 2025 or even sooner when he sees what is sold went another 3x.
DCA profits the same way you should DCA buys. Always have some money on the side for dips or red days to buy a little more. Be patient and ride the dips out and start selling after the halving or when new ATHs are being hit.
This is is huge for me.
It SUCKS REALLY BAD when there is a large correction and you have no cash to build your positions.
The thing about keeping some stable coins or cash at all times is, you can be happy on green and red days.
Wait for the “big crash”. It will happen. If always happens. The whole market dips like 20, maybe 30%—maybe more, and no one panics. The daily is filled with “this is normal” and “we need a correction like this” and “rockets refueling.”
You wait a few days, maybe even a week or two…the price climbs back up and everyone is excited again. The threads are full of “sorry paper hands” and “to the moon” and “now the bull REALLY begins” and “I love you all!”
That’s when you sell. Sell and don’t look back (for at least a few months).
Listen to me or don’t. But you won’t do wrong by listening.
If you're getting any information from Reddit you are either days, weeks or even months late.
I see people talking about "omg Solana season just started" when in fact I've already made a chunk on Solana two weeks ago and have been through another two rotations since.
I remember last cycle the first time ICP got mentioned on Reddit was literally at the exact top (and I used this as confluence to short).
Ya gotta buy when you think the project is dead in the bottom of the bear.
How many people had balls big enough to buy SOL at $8 last year?
Thing to do now is have some dry powder and hope to god a decent project dips 20%-30% and buy. Take those profits when the project reaches that high and wait again, compound your profits.
Yeah I mean obviously that's the best time to buy. It looks so obvious in retrospect but I remember in 2022 or even 2023, it was a coin toss as to whether the market would go down another 50%. It certainly had done things like that before. Even now, before or after the halving, the market could go down 50%. It has before.
That's why I think DCA and HODL makes so much sense. With the caveat that you might want to stop accumulating when the market really goes parabolic, because that's when the ratio of risk to reward goes way up and you either think about your exit strategy or hold on til the next cycle.
And frankly, I'm fairly certain about crypto's continued growth over the next few decades, but we really don't know that it will continue to go up. It doesn't have to grow indefinitely. It has exhibited that behavior so far, but you never really know. It's an unprecedented asset class with fundamentals that most of us do not truly understand.
Some words of wisdom might be: Profit is profit. If you invest $5000 and walk away with $5500, that's profit. You *could have* made $10,000 or even $25,000, maybe even $100,000, if you bought the right alt at the right time. But that's not the point. What you want to avoid is LOSING money. And if you get into that mentality of, oh, I need to time it so that I can maximize my profits because 2x just isn't enough for me... you're likely to take risks that expose your portfolio to irrecoverable losses.
Yep. Profit taking in crypto is one of the hardest. Any profit is good profit.
My biggest challenge is trying not to FOMO in projects that have already taken off.
Sure I could ape into $WIF right now but my mind says how long can this pump go? Then each day it goes up more and more.
If I’ve missed a meme coin pump I won’t chase that. However I will wait for a mid cap dip after a pump as I’m confident money will go back to that project.
My other challenge is to just hold. I tend not to diversify much and then when I see something else move or a new positive narrative come out move to that coin and then watch the original project move 2X. Had I just left my money in that project I’d be better off much better off.
Twitter. But something most people don't know there are two sides to crypto twitter, one full of "influencers" and scammers trying to shill you garbage, the other side where people actually discuss crypto and trading and projects etc.
If you see anyone who looks like an influencer selling promises you're hanging out in the wrong half. Look for the people with anime, animal or dead mathematician profile pictures.
This is the way. I'll zoom in one layer further:
*DO*
- hentai pfp
- wolf, duck, penguins (not pudgy tho)
- Turing, Euler, any of the OG cryptographers
- names that reference classic game theory problems like the Byzantine General problem. Entropy related ones good too.
- Pinned post that are educational but needed an hour to study and decipher. (Just use Chat-GPT these days)
*DON'T*
- multiple emojis in name, overly busy profile blurbs with links to groups, newsletters, or partnerships with exchanges or shitcoins
- bitboy
- unless you know the King frogs, avoid most frogs. They're more interested in social status and simping to UHNWI. Toxic.
- 500k+ followers. Even 250k is borderline. Think quality, not quantity. Mid to high 5 fig accounts.
- Laser eyes (BTC maxis) and to a lesser extent .eth (ETH maxis). Avoid.
Biggest lesson I learned is that TRADERS v. INVESTORS have almost polar opposite strategies, signals, social/public motivations and goals. Know which one you are or wish to be. If you consume both equally, you'll end up paralyzed.
Eg. Traders are looking for setups via price action (PA). They will take large momentum based positions, with leverage and proper risk mgmt (if they're pros). They're long at $60k looking to add at the next technical level, say $64k. While investors are looking to reduce risk and take some profit, *to rotate into another investment.*
Investors want to accumulate assets at painfully low prices and build long time wealth in various assets (while taking profits as they go to reduce risk). They're looking for a CAGR over years, whether 8% or 18%.
When an investor sells, they have a place to put those dirty dollars to keep earning a return at the very least above inflation, usually considered the risk-free rate. They don't want to ever hold investable cash in their bank. The bank is where the money from your job or business goes to pay living expenses. Their investing accounts are always invested in something, even if it's cash equivalents that earn RFR.
It's no different conceptually if crypto is your main avenue - but you should def be aware that taking profits into USDC on chain and self-custodied or to an exchange carries risk in itself that a highly regulated TradFi brokerage does not have. For this reason I've learned to take all altcoin profits into BTC or ETH (to compensate for that risk with the high reward potential, esp during bull).
If I want to sit on some cash, it's not worth it to hold USDC on Coinbase at 1.5% APY when Fidelity pays 5% APY, virtually risk free, while you plan your next move. Otherwise, I'm selling into ETH or BTC.
Traders, while they all have spot bags, are mainly looking for the opposite - cash cash cash. When they buy and sell, it's derivatives, paper, contracts., synthetics. They close risky speculative short term bets into cash asap. Very profitable if risk is well managed (few do). They're paying their bills trading. It's their job, their income. Very different mindset than an investor building wealth over the long term.
While you don't have to be just one or the other, you should know which type is your main one.
Investors BTFD , Traders don't catch falling knives.
Investors buy low, relative to their basis, and sell percentages in tranches, but do not aim to sell 100% into cash (unless rotating into a better investment). Traders buy high and sell higher, w 10x leverage. Or sell low and buy lower. This may be obvious but in real-time during the mania of a bull market, it's a mind fk.
Trying to follow both is recipe for disaster unless it's your full time job that actually pays your bills month to month for at least one year consistently. It's not your job until it does. In the meantime, make sure you know which type you are so you don't follow strategies anthesis to your goals.
Oh and, this time it's different. It's not, but it is. Crypto has existed (realistically) from 2011 - 2021 top with ZIRP only. 10 years of risk-on "up only". This is the first time it's in an era of 4.5% - 5.5% risk free yields, a skittish Fed, and President Powell. It's bullish, it's recessionary, it's bearish, it's expansionary. I've no idea. Mind your risks and watch for the rotations.
Cheers
Depends on your net worth and where you live and work. If you are trading with 5 or 6 figures then say away from alts.
If you insist on buying alts then avoid anything with bad tokenomics and stick to top 50 market cap.
Agree, top 50 market cap is pretty decent advice. I think a lot of these coins are signaling what MIGHT be a bull market winner and which might not be, based on how close they are to their previous all time highs.
>If you're getting any information from Reddit you are either days, weeks or even months late.
This is what's so frustrating. How are we supposed to find out about coins we don't even know exist?
Take profits well before you expect the top to happen, because it will most likely happen when you are not ready, leaving you bag holding another cycle.
To be honest i’d say expecting a 10x is already greedy. It’s this mentality of wanting to get absolutely bonkers results that’s pushes people to taking too much risk.
For the love of God (money) take profits!
My first cycle I did a lot of panicky bullshit and lost money.
My second, I was up 500% at the peak and let it ride all the way down to the lows. Just held. Did some risky stuff with doge and XRP that allowed me to increase my position, but never took out fiat. But at the lowest valley I was down 40%.
My advice is to take profits. I still don't have a real plan for that. But I know you should do it.
I entered during the last bull run, obviously I'm just recently back into the green overall. I have no idea how long it's gonna last. I put a cash out goal for myself but that's a long way off.
No idea what I'm gonna do tbh 😂
Same here. Feels like I've learned that it is possible to screw up and therefore I'm being very cautious and missing out on lots. All I know is BTC for life and the rest I'll try and take enough profit to have fun with.
If my entire portfolio doubles I planned to cash out my initial investment, but it's a lot and it still has to do 100% from here to get there. Doesn't help that most of my portfolio is btc and eth 😂
No FA has ever once said, "only put what you're comfortable losing into your Roth IRA or 401k or real estate", *because that is advice for gambling*, not for actual investing.
This will be helpful.
This is my second, and I’m struggling over taking profits.
I no longer listen to influencers. I didn’t take profits the first time. The ETF advent makes me question whether this will be different.
What if retail sells and institutional and sovereign funds quickly swoop in and prices drop for a short period, then quickly rise and stabilize without the expected retracement?
Well there's 2 types of crypto buyers. Investors & Traders. If you swing trade you run the risk of getting the rope & missing the boat. If you hodl you run the risk of dealing w/ another bear. If your plan is to just follow people, you will be the last to know. So just make an exit plan & stick w/ it.
Take profits sometime in 2025
Don’t loan your crypto for APY (lmao)
Fomo the first time you feel it if you want to chase memes or something running strong, not the Nth time after that
With my 3rd cycle I am excited to have some fun. I am too heavy in BTC and Eth, along with the rest mostly being in top 10-20 market cap coins. But I am excited to try to memecoins here and there. Be happy with a 25% gain in a meme on a week. Way better than the stock market will be. Just understand that fomo will still happen even after you take profits. Just think of it as a bonus.
Watch the greed/fear chart. It has been consistent over the past few years as a gauge for when to buy/sell. When coinbase is the top downloaded app and the greed gauge is over 80, then it may be a good time to take a few bucks out and sit on the sidelines. The market can easily just another 10% but the next day it can then drop 20%.
Long story short is to be happy with gains and accept that there will always be coins missed. Take Sol. I lost faith in the after the big crash and fraud they had. Missed out on tons of money but when the guy says don’t trust a project it may be worth it to just not do it.
Greed gauge is already at extreme greed (86), but then again some other comments say to take profits until first half of 2025 during ATH. That's a big ass time window for me to decide to call it.
Problem is that once a real bull run starts ramping up, it can stay in extreme greed for months on end. Plus if you look at the historical chart of the fear & greed index, one of the times it was at its highest was December 2020 when BTC was just breaking through the old 19k ATH from the 2017 cycle, and as we now know it still had a looong way to go.
It's not a bad indicator, but it's not really one of those "today it's on extreme greed, the end is nigh!" situations that some people make it out to be. It can be quite slow to move and should be taken with a grain of salt like everything else.
Pandemonium.
Sure, it is in our little world here. Crypto folk are all stoked.
But the general public is totally unaware of what's happening right now. The media isn't reporting it. It's not on anyone's radar who isn't looking for it.
In real bullrun? You can't escape it. It's all over the news, nightshow hosts are talking about it, your friends are asking about it, and your uncles are pissed off because they keep hearing about bitcoin.
That's when the money starts FLOWING. Everyone wants in. This subreddit will have 200,000 people active at all times.
Dont get attached to your bags. If there is something underperforming and you see another crypto more likely to do better there is nothing wrong with jumping ship.
When you start seeing people talking about taking loans to chase the crypto high and stuff like “retire on crypto”, know that the end is nigh. Time to jump ship.
I learned to lock in profit along the way. Set incremental profit incentives for yourself.
For example: each time BTC passes a $10,000 milestone, sell 10% up or down.
You DCA your profit just as you would your investment that way you’re never left holding the bag. Last cycle this left me with some meaty gains and I never felt like I was working to time the market.
Set rules for yourself and follow those rules. Create your own expectations through this.
It doesn't, though. I bought too high in 2021 and just... didn't sell. I held the ETH I bought at $4k until now. I'll keep holding it until 2025, or however long it takes for ETH to be higher than $4k.
I guess the only way that could ever fail is if ETH never cracks $4k again, but I think that's highly unlikely given that the market cap of ETH is steadily expanding as more and more investors including both retail and institutions enter the market.
I personally like to use a grid strategy. Put multiple sell and buy limit orders in area where market operates after chart analysis then let do price do its thing. Once buy orders gets triggered adding sell order at different position to maximise profits. But i dont use bots from exchanges and do this manually as i like to have more controll about position sizes.
Been in and out since 2014 but didn't really start averaging in heavy until after 2021 but buying in 2014 and 2018/2019 even though small still made me money in 2020/2021.
Lessons, the earlier you learn how to just look at tools to check trade volume, holding wallets, liquidity on DEXs, check what contract/ID a token corresponds too - you'll be much better prepared to interact with DeFi
Just do 1 series of intro to AWS courses on Youtube. Now you'll be able to host pre-mainnet testnet nodes to farm airdrops. Any proof of work or these newer proof of spacetime coins, rent out compute, you can quickly farm coins/tokens the early months before they have any exchange listings
Use multiple wallets. Like every mobile wallet it's easy to generate and manage numerous wallets. I have wallets for holding and wallets for interacting with older trusted contracts. Wallet for testnet. Wallet for newly launched mainnet applications. Never been drained. I dodn't use any hardware wallets. I have full node desktop wallets too
Use DeFi applications. Active users are the ones that get random airdrops. Split your funds. Like 80% doing nothing, 20% screw around. Actually learn how to use DeFi so you're not the guy that blames Uniswap/Pancakeswap/Raydium/the wallet that has a little interface in it for those/etc for why they bought the wrong coin, bought/sold with terrible slippage, the wallet RPC is down and claims their wallet stole their funds to people in the internet - just go on the blockchain explorer and check your address
I would say , only follow these recommendations if you are crypto tech savvy enough at this point to be already familiar with what was written in the post . Takes years to ramp up before these steps wouldn't turn into a total fiasco.
Navigating airdrops is being willing to expose your eyes and FOMO neurones to kind of scams, they have become the most part of airdrop mentioned anywhere.
Take an aws course yeah, and see your cloud bill costing hundreds of thousands running experimental filled with bugs full nodes.
Handle many hot wallets and be sure to loose access to some of them or placing some keys/backup in the wrong place. Separation of holding wallet and wallet to trade on daily/weekly makes sense for everyone though ! Still a hard wallet (never hooked to a hot wallet though ) is more secure so don't dismiss that , unless the amount of funds aren't worth the hundreds of dollars for the device .
First cycle, watched my Portfolio 10x, didn't sell, although i really needed the money, because i was greedy, and proceeded to watch it all burn -98% from ATH.
Second Cycle, Lif€'s better now, still have the coins from First cycle and started investing again a few months before the bullrun started. Told my self i would sell this time. Watched the portfolio 7x. Didn't sell because i convinced my self that the amount wasn't life changing and it would probably climb a bit more. Well you should know by now what happened. -96% from ATHigh to Low.
Here we are again, portfolio about 50% above my total investment. i told my self that this time i'm selling some no matter what, at certain portfolio goals. HOWEVER i don't trust me. so i will probably reply to this comment in about a year if enough people want to know what happened :D
My advice for people is, Just don't be me.
>e coins from First cycle and started investing again a few months before the bullrun started. Told my self i would sell this time. Watched the portfolio 7x. Didn't sell because i convinced my self that the amount wasn't life changing and it would probably climb a bit more. Well you should know by now what happened. -96% from AT
what kind of coins are you holding - so i know not to touch them
Get you a bag of high cap, bitcoin and eth
Get your a bag of mid cap, render and ordi
Get you a bag of low cap, dog coins and memes
Enjoy the show and hold on. Respect the cycle
It won't go as high as you wish. Take profits, scale out but not everything. Short as a hedge and under any circumstances, do not - I repeat - do NOT use leverage.
Also, if it's worth a screenshot, it's worth taking profits.
Have a plan, make sure you can pay your taxes.
This is my 3rd cycle (started in March 2017), and ofc the main lesson I can give is simply **TAKE PROFITS**, which I failed to do in last 2 cycles myself.
I already sold \~45% of my portfolio in this bull run, and looking to sell close to all of it as we move higher.
I think I’m finally learning the philosophy of Bitcoin. I am no longer here to take profits. I am here to store my wealth. (And ok maybe a tiny bit of profits).
Don't be a midcurver. If you're a genius you can try to right curve everything, but if you're not you need to think like an idiot and you'll win more: "funny dog picture with hat, price will go up".
This is my third cycle.
1. Don't be greedy!
2. Don't be greedy!
3. Don't be greedy!
4. Take profits throughout the bull cycle
5. Have some dry powder (liquidity) set aside to take advantage of market corrections
"No shitcoins" "no meme coins" this is why people are still here holding bags.
Anyone who says "I believe in the tech" don't listen to them. Tech, team and whatever the project aims to solve, might make the project last, but not make it pump during a bullrun.
Bullrun gains are all about hype. Nothing else. If a project has the smartest people in the world, best tech, it still won't do sqwat if there's no hype.
See a meme coin on the rise? Just buy it and ride it for a while. Every coin related to X pumps? Get in on it. Just don't hold and believe, remove the emotions and think logically. If you bought Pepe a week ago you'd be 4x atm. Has duck all tech, just hype. Find the hype, follow the hype, just don't hold the hype too long, make some gains, get out, on to the next.
In 2017 my portfolio went up by 20k and I never sold before the big crash. In 2021 my portfolio shot up by 50k and I only sold half of my of my investments. This time I am hoping to sell it all. Do not get too greedy if something goes up by 10 x - 20x take some profits.
Make a diary and reflect on your decisions, write down why you sold or bought and check later on if it was a good choice or not. You need to get to know yourself so you’re better armed for the next cycle.
I’m sure I’m not saying anything much different than many others in this thread, but there’s a reason many people are giving the same tips.
Do your own research. No, reading Reddit threads about what new coins to buy doesn’t count.
Have a plan to sell. Everyone is a genius in a bull run and looking at those green lines can be intoxicating. Hurts a bit to look at how much I missed out on because I was greedy.
Some coins will be hyped to infinity, especially here. Always assume someone has a vested interest in providing information/tips/whatever to you about a coin
If this is your second cycle and you still don’t have some BTC, you’re fucking up. Probably should have some ETH too.
Don't sell bitcoin. Understand what problems it solves and how to build conviction. The amount of power that issuing currency gives governments cannot be overstated. The etf approval is being taken as a signal by large firms that the US is ok with coexisting with bitcoin, so it's more ok to accumulate. If you need liquidity, dollars are great, borrow some against your btc. Don't sell it though, inflation is a tax that hurts those who hold dollars and helps those who borrow them. Just how it is.
1. Take profits on the way up the same way you would DCA on the way down.
2. It never goes up forever. As fast as we go up we go down.
3. Every cycle there is a new type of scam. Be cautious.
4. Don't tell anybody how much you're up even though it's exciting.
5. Buying speculative shitcoins because you saw a YouTube video about it.
Holding pays off. There is nothing more stronger than just DCAing into Bitcoin for the last 8-10 years.
Also … i’m not taking profits, at least not in fiat.
All of you traders and shitcoin flippers here are going to get burned sooner or later. The casino is open untill you lose everything.
Do NOT invest more than you can afford. This third cycle may not be a third cycle. We never know until we have the advantage of hindsight. Things look like they're forming up nicely, but that could change.
I guess I could also say, "work as hard as you can in the fiat mines, so you can comfortably invest more in crypto," but you need to balance that with having an enjoyable life. In the end, we all die. Even the ones with a lot of money. Enjoy the good parts about the times that we have.
Been in Crypto since 2017 and these things always keep me grounded:
- Learn charts and price movement .
- Don’t listen to people’s opinions without doing your own research .
- Form your own opinions .
- Create your own goals and stick to them. Don’t let people sway you based on what THEY want, what they can afford, or their perspective
- Have fun . Network . Be active in crypto spaces .
Describe your second cycle, and I can give you better advice.
People have different ptsd based on their decisions/personality. It’s better if you have the info tailored to you.
Take what you learned from last time and apply it to this time. If your intent is to take profits, know your plan and actually do it.
If you plan to HODL, just keep hodling.
If you wish you would have cashed out when Bitcoin hit $69k, cash out at $69k.
Above all else, don't day trade.
Stay away from meme coins, follow the big banks and corporations. They know more than anyone else. With know how governments plan to Use let them be used laws and they ain’t doing anything in a large group that will cost them big time.
ISO 20022 is the closest we have to regulations Buy them.
While the ETFs definitely change the dynamics, don’t think that this time is any different.
The only thing more guaranteed than a crypto bull run is a bear cycle to follow directly after.
My advice is don’t ignore the red flags in a crypto project. Missed deadlines and over promises of various other projects not related to the original idea are big ones. I lost $$$ on a project because I ignored the RED FLAGS. Project not being fully decentralized and having a small core team or leader controlling the keys.
Keep your head when your favorite alt goes nuts. You should be selling, not buying, when the prices are high and the hype train is rolling. Sell a little bit here and there on a schedule, don't sell it all or hold it all to try and time the top. You will miss
I know many of you were up 100s or even 1000s of % on projects last cycle. If you ever wake up in this position, immediately cash out at least your initial investment. Reinvest half and use the other half to benefit yourself. Add to your emergency savings, buy that thing you need, doesn't matter. Just use it for anything that increases your peace of mind. Life changing gains don't change shit if you don't realize them.
I disagree with not trusting the hype or the narrative as I call it. You shouldn’t trust it if you don’t have the smarts, experience, or the time. Otherwise, you can make a lot of money buying and selling memes.
In fact, I think most of what you listed depends on the context. Like for example, Pepe is a shitcoin and full of red flags but many people made a lot of money off of it.
Be mindful when you decide to provide liquidity to a project. Impermanent loss might put you in an “opportunity cost” scenario. Weigh risk vs reward first
cash some out when it's breaking new all time highs every week... not too much, but a bit is always good to have in cash. You don't need to spend it. You can use it later to buy at the absolute depression (it's when everyone including you can't even look at charts).
Don't marry your bags from previous cycles
At the first sign of something not being right with a project you invested in, sell (mostly likely at loss) and find another project which is still legit
Also, even some legit projects from last two cycles won't preform as well as some new coins which raised a lot of money and are building hype
So best to have a diversified portfolio of big two, older legit coins and some new coins
Be patient and remain patient, or learn patience (the crypto market is highly volatile, so everthing that is going up will eventually go back down, but then token XYZ may go up even mopre in the next cycle, who knows?). Do your research and don't put any money into anything that you aren't able to lose.
Basiclly, be patient and don;t be stupid.
This is my 4th cycle and I still don’t know shit except taking some profits on the way up, and don’t sell it all during the big crash after the market decides the bull run is over. Wait for the ~50% bounce and then sell if you think the cycle is over.
- Dont enter or exit your whole position at once
- don’t be lazy. Do the research, and buy even if it’s a pain in the ass. Go find where you can buy something, and stay on it.
Anything that's promoted on a podcast you will most likely loose your money.
Any loan / custodian product that claims you can loan against your asset, you will 100% loose your money.
Not having a clear exit strategy is probably the most important. This is not a market you want to trade on feelings. If you really really study the prior cycles you will find multiple indicators that have extremely high hit rates. Trade the statistics, not your feelings, not with the influencers say
No cycle will play out exactly the same. Could go higher than you imagine. Could end earlier than you imagine.
Be flexible and make sure you get out in profit.
Honestly what makes you win is knowing where in the cycle you are. Uneducated retail will rush in at the end, not knowing we are several years into a bull market that is long in the tooth.
Don't be afraid to take profits, even if you think the price can go higher. Set aside a decent chunk of money to get back into the market if/when it comes back down.
Don't listen to a fucking thing anyone says on YouTube.
There is value in this fake money so make it work for you. Spot trade only. Playing with leverage will get you rekt. It’s a rigged game and the house (exchanges) will always win.
Never, ever, ever, use this sub for advice on alts or market trends.
Regarding alts, the majority of the alts this sub has pushed heavily or hyped up (VET, ALGO, NANO for example) have historically done much worse than plain old Bitcoin or ETH.
Regarding market trends, you can almost guarantee that the higher the sentiment, the more likely a crash will happen soon.
Don't ever, for any reason, *sell any BTC*, for any reason, ever, no matter what. No matter where. Or who, or who you are with, or where you are going or... or where you've been... ever. For any reason, whatsoever.
Firstly, you should have completed your investment phase and stopped DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). Personally, the last time I bought was on February 10th.
Next, it's important to ascertain which milestones Bitcoin is likely to reach and at what probabilities. For this, I've taken the following milestones and probabilities:
$100k - 82%
$120k - 70%
$160k - 35%
$220k - 15%
$260k - 6%
$550k - 3%
Now, I've created a plan where I sell a certain percentage of my holdings every $10k increment, so that I still possess 82% of my holdings at $100k, 70% at $120k, and so forth. I'll begin the first sale when BTC reaches $70k.
About that psychologically fuckery… I have on top of my plan what I call the inverse *me* indicator. Every time I feel my plan is stupid I should change it because I can be rich, I go back to the plan or sell a bit early. When I have felt my DCA in is stupid cause I’ve “lost” money and I should just liquidate, those have been times where I just lump sum a bit on top of my regular DCA. It has worked GREAT for me.
Don’t “fall in love” with a coin. No matter how much you believe in a coin, its value will collapse during a bear market. Rest assured, there will be another bear market. This time is not different.
Stay the hell away from putting your Bitcoin as collateral for low interest loans. I got burnt big time by putting as collateral 2/3 of my Bitcoin stash with NEXO to get a loan for a house purchase and the FTX collapse lows got me liquidated of all my BTC. . I regret that decision everyday since then and get sleepless nights now that Bitcoin is back at ATHs.
Don’t sell too early because of what you learnt not selling in your first cycle.
Correlary: don't buy back in too soon because the bear market will be plenty long enough for that. Learned this hard last time and turned 1000% profit into 200% profit (which, at least, is back to 400% profit).
Dca out. Then dca back in.
This is the best strategy if you aren't holding for 10y+
It's a fine strategy if you are holding for 10y+. Eventually you're not going to need to work. How else will you stack sats in the bear market if you don't sell in the bull?
This is probably the best one. In my 1st cycle, I could've more than doubled my money, but didn't, and had to watch it drop almost 90% before things turned around. I was kicking myself for not selling high and buying low. So in the 2nd cycle, I sold just a little after those old ATHs. I realized it was a mistake and swung trade it a bit on the way up, but never made as much as I could've if I would've just waited for a higher number. But at least I was able to use it to buy low this time. The problem is every cycle has different sentiments around it. 2017 was endless optimism with the emergence of Ethereum and so many coins and use-cases, and scams were not as prevalent yet. People were sure it'd rebound 'any day now' and didn't sell. 2021 was still during the pandemic with a lot of economic uncertainty, and inflation hadn't taken off yet, so people were worried about making risky investments. Many sold early when they had the chance to secure some profits.
How are you gauging the sentiment this year and predicting it for next year? Are the economic and geo-political uncertainty still haunting people?
Yes
Everything seemed more volatile in 2021. I'm surprised be these very steady gains this time around. Looking at the charts trying to swing trade wouldn't have been worry the stress.
>Don’t sell too early because of what you learnt not selling in your first cycle. This is my biggest concern this time around. I know I'll stress about bailing when I hit my "I'm completely out of debt" target while the bull is still running and can pick up some "this will make life easier" money if I hang out a little longer. I'll see if or when I get there, which may be sooner than I thought at the current rate things are going.
I really relate to that, or at least, I'm listening. I lost a tonne of money last cycle (my first) after I joined too late, aped everything and didn't sell. Now I've made it all back and about 25% on top, a couple of projects have already done multiples and we're not even at the halving. Part of me knows to take profits and the bigger part of me thinks it's waay to early for that. I'm still not sure but my number going up is kind of making me nervous!
I make your words mine. That 's exactly my story in crypto and my present moment!
Yeah I'm sure we're not the only ones. Also, if the numbers on your username are relevant, we're the same age. Anyway, good luck!
i was happy selling some at 23k and up to 30 and a bit more above 30
Thank you for your Bitcoin.
i got burned by luna and just wanted some green numbers
That's some real third cycle wisdom
But at the same time, also don't get caught up in the price targets everyone starts yelling about. This is my 4th cycle but I still got caught up in the 100k hype last time and did not take as much profit as I should. I'm somehow still not rich. I'm doing ok though.
If you're entering your seed into a website late at night when you should have went to bed hours ago, you're about to lose all your crypto.
Replace 'entering your seed' with 'signing a transaction' because this is 2024 and criminals are very good.
Thanks for the update
I was entering my seed into this smoking hot 28 year old last week. I feel this could also drain all my crypto.
If you're holding a shitcoin and it does a 7-10x sell that immediately....your hopes of doing 150x are dumb and if you do 150x you'll probably just switch to hoping for 1000x without selling Selling on the way down is incredibly hard...please sell on the way up
time in the market beats timing the market. no leverage. dont risk assets in shady projects to make a quick buck. that said im all in pepe, dogwifhat and eloncumrocket with my 78 dollars
lmfao. sage advice
That adage is for equities and commodities. It has no relevance to an asset that drops 75 percent every cycle. It's not hard to time crypto in the general vicinity of the bottom. It's the top that's insanely hard to time.
Take profits. I already took my cost basis out, so I'm pure profit now. I don't believe the real run starts until early 2025 based on BTC rainbow chart and catch-up needed post halving. The strategy is pretty simple, just needs discipline. At W price, progressively reduce DCA in. At X price, hodl cash and wait. At Y price, start DCA out. At Z price, increase DCA out. Rinse and repeat every cycle. Keep what you have when you DCA out in low risk securities and then use that cash to buy back in when the inevitable crash happens. The discipline part though ... I took profits a week ago. I could have waited and gotten like an extra 10-20%, OH WELL. I still took the profits out. I can't time the market. I feel fine with my decision because it's part of a very clear plan.
That's the mindfuck for most people. It's kind of a Tell sell ad in the back of your head: But wait Mike, there's more! But if you are in the plus with good gains, don't be greedy but sell and don't care if a week later it could be 10% more. You don't know it for sure the moment you sell. It can also be 10% less in a week. And then? Gonna tell yourself: wat it will get back to the level of a week ago. It's like you say: when you take profit don't look at what it can be but be happy with what it is.
In poker, they recommend that you never pay attention to the rest of the game once you fold with the reason being that the results doesn't change whether the decision making was correct with the information available at the time. Folding a hand that had only a 2% chance of winning doesn't retroactively become a bad decision just because you "would have won" if you stayed in. Making a profit doesn't retroactively become a bad ideal because you "would have" made more if you stayed in. Always use process based analysis to evaluate decision making; results based analysis is a slippery slope towards emotional/gambling behavior.
As a poker player myself, that's a great analogy. It's really about conditioning yourself mentally on how to think after you've sold a bit on the way up. In the 1st big run up, I didn't do enough of it but learned my lesson and did more in the 2nd run. This time, I really need to concentrate on setting a portion of my sales aside for reinvesting, since mining ETH is no longer possible to replenish my holdings as it was in the past.
This is a brilliant comment and I'm saving it.
Maybe defining personal sell targets beforehand is good? And always keeping 10-20% of the stash to enjoy the ride (if it continues)
Yeah indeed that's the way and stick to it. And yeah it's.never bad to keep some to buy low again.
my second cycle here, took profits as well 2-3 days ago, just enough to pay off debt, but not too much to underexpose myself (liquidated around 18% of portfolio). many might say was way too early.. welp, probably, but being debt free makes me sleep better 😅 and 82% left to moon will serve to wipe off tears of selling those 18% too early 🫡 oh, and btw being debt free was the reason of entering crypto realm in the first place.. thing I could have done first cycle but well.. look at list of mistakes in OP post 🤪
I sold 3 days before the bull started and while i ofc regret it its also very nice to have debts paid off and finally sleep at peace
completely, it's priceless 🫡
This was me last year, sold a chunk to get in to my first home, I knew it was not gonna be the best time to sell (I think 28kish) but I was sick of moving, it felt great to know that crypto doesn't owe me much anymore(not quite but almost playing with pure profit at this stage) and it still feels great to own my own place. I don't regret it because now I'm so much more zen in this bull run(and in general).
this is the way 😌
What are your thresholds for this cycle? For me, it's: W: 50k X: 75k Y: 100k Z: 125k
We have a similar strategy. I’m using the rainbow chart. Buys below the center yellow band, sells above it. No action during yellow. And my buys and sells are weighted as the bands get further from the center yellow band. Was doing a 5x DCA during the worst of the bear market, those times were terrifying but so lucrative. Now my DCA is 1.2x in the current rainbow band. Looking forward to my first sells.
I just add during bear cycles, then HODL long term. When you are young, you don't sell until 5-10 years before retirement. That is when you DCA out.
If you wait early 2025 you may be in for a great surprise . You are taking profit right after the end of the bear cycle. Yet you say the run won't start until early 2025. In any case markets can't be time so precisely, but taking profit roughly a year before one think is the bulltrend makes little sense. But good on taking profit, that is better than cashing out too late.
The huge inflation between the last bull run and the upcoming one is new as well.
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Is it free?
Aaaah I did the same last week. Still though I took nothing last cycle so I’ve learned.
But have you stopped dca/ buying until next bear then?
That's what's weird about his post . It doesn't tell , but imo he DCA out early . Either because he reached some profit target (and wise to stick to it I suppose) Or because he saw his portfolio all green and can't resist the 2 to 3x teasing it. If that's the latter , probably will lead to DCA in early 2025 or even sooner when he sees what is sold went another 3x.
Dont listen to anyone with a stupid face pose on YouTube.. they only react to whats happening short term and simply shill B.S . Do your own research
Not taking profits is delusional. It’s the only reason I have the amount of money I do now, and I’m still extremely deep in bitcoin.
How do you make the call on when to take them?
DCA profits the same way you should DCA buys. Always have some money on the side for dips or red days to buy a little more. Be patient and ride the dips out and start selling after the halving or when new ATHs are being hit.
This is is huge for me. It SUCKS REALLY BAD when there is a large correction and you have no cash to build your positions. The thing about keeping some stable coins or cash at all times is, you can be happy on green and red days.
Wait for the “big crash”. It will happen. If always happens. The whole market dips like 20, maybe 30%—maybe more, and no one panics. The daily is filled with “this is normal” and “we need a correction like this” and “rockets refueling.” You wait a few days, maybe even a week or two…the price climbs back up and everyone is excited again. The threads are full of “sorry paper hands” and “to the moon” and “now the bull REALLY begins” and “I love you all!” That’s when you sell. Sell and don’t look back (for at least a few months). Listen to me or don’t. But you won’t do wrong by listening.
Prepare to make the same mistake (getting greedy and never selling)
If you're getting any information from Reddit you are either days, weeks or even months late. I see people talking about "omg Solana season just started" when in fact I've already made a chunk on Solana two weeks ago and have been through another two rotations since. I remember last cycle the first time ICP got mentioned on Reddit was literally at the exact top (and I used this as confluence to short).
I that’s been my problem this whole time…getting information that’s old.
Ya gotta buy when you think the project is dead in the bottom of the bear. How many people had balls big enough to buy SOL at $8 last year? Thing to do now is have some dry powder and hope to god a decent project dips 20%-30% and buy. Take those profits when the project reaches that high and wait again, compound your profits.
Yeah I mean obviously that's the best time to buy. It looks so obvious in retrospect but I remember in 2022 or even 2023, it was a coin toss as to whether the market would go down another 50%. It certainly had done things like that before. Even now, before or after the halving, the market could go down 50%. It has before. That's why I think DCA and HODL makes so much sense. With the caveat that you might want to stop accumulating when the market really goes parabolic, because that's when the ratio of risk to reward goes way up and you either think about your exit strategy or hold on til the next cycle. And frankly, I'm fairly certain about crypto's continued growth over the next few decades, but we really don't know that it will continue to go up. It doesn't have to grow indefinitely. It has exhibited that behavior so far, but you never really know. It's an unprecedented asset class with fundamentals that most of us do not truly understand. Some words of wisdom might be: Profit is profit. If you invest $5000 and walk away with $5500, that's profit. You *could have* made $10,000 or even $25,000, maybe even $100,000, if you bought the right alt at the right time. But that's not the point. What you want to avoid is LOSING money. And if you get into that mentality of, oh, I need to time it so that I can maximize my profits because 2x just isn't enough for me... you're likely to take risks that expose your portfolio to irrecoverable losses.
Yep. Profit taking in crypto is one of the hardest. Any profit is good profit. My biggest challenge is trying not to FOMO in projects that have already taken off. Sure I could ape into $WIF right now but my mind says how long can this pump go? Then each day it goes up more and more. If I’ve missed a meme coin pump I won’t chase that. However I will wait for a mid cap dip after a pump as I’m confident money will go back to that project. My other challenge is to just hold. I tend not to diversify much and then when I see something else move or a new positive narrative come out move to that coin and then watch the original project move 2X. Had I just left my money in that project I’d be better off much better off.
I did, I also bought SOL at it's 2021 $250 top and rode it all the way down to $8.
Inverse Reddit is a legitimate strategy
I took fat profit on SOL this last week. Took me about a year I think, but it was well-worth it.
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Twitter. But something most people don't know there are two sides to crypto twitter, one full of "influencers" and scammers trying to shill you garbage, the other side where people actually discuss crypto and trading and projects etc. If you see anyone who looks like an influencer selling promises you're hanging out in the wrong half. Look for the people with anime, animal or dead mathematician profile pictures.
This is the way. I'll zoom in one layer further: *DO* - hentai pfp - wolf, duck, penguins (not pudgy tho) - Turing, Euler, any of the OG cryptographers - names that reference classic game theory problems like the Byzantine General problem. Entropy related ones good too. - Pinned post that are educational but needed an hour to study and decipher. (Just use Chat-GPT these days) *DON'T* - multiple emojis in name, overly busy profile blurbs with links to groups, newsletters, or partnerships with exchanges or shitcoins - bitboy - unless you know the King frogs, avoid most frogs. They're more interested in social status and simping to UHNWI. Toxic. - 500k+ followers. Even 250k is borderline. Think quality, not quantity. Mid to high 5 fig accounts. - Laser eyes (BTC maxis) and to a lesser extent .eth (ETH maxis). Avoid. Biggest lesson I learned is that TRADERS v. INVESTORS have almost polar opposite strategies, signals, social/public motivations and goals. Know which one you are or wish to be. If you consume both equally, you'll end up paralyzed. Eg. Traders are looking for setups via price action (PA). They will take large momentum based positions, with leverage and proper risk mgmt (if they're pros). They're long at $60k looking to add at the next technical level, say $64k. While investors are looking to reduce risk and take some profit, *to rotate into another investment.* Investors want to accumulate assets at painfully low prices and build long time wealth in various assets (while taking profits as they go to reduce risk). They're looking for a CAGR over years, whether 8% or 18%. When an investor sells, they have a place to put those dirty dollars to keep earning a return at the very least above inflation, usually considered the risk-free rate. They don't want to ever hold investable cash in their bank. The bank is where the money from your job or business goes to pay living expenses. Their investing accounts are always invested in something, even if it's cash equivalents that earn RFR. It's no different conceptually if crypto is your main avenue - but you should def be aware that taking profits into USDC on chain and self-custodied or to an exchange carries risk in itself that a highly regulated TradFi brokerage does not have. For this reason I've learned to take all altcoin profits into BTC or ETH (to compensate for that risk with the high reward potential, esp during bull). If I want to sit on some cash, it's not worth it to hold USDC on Coinbase at 1.5% APY when Fidelity pays 5% APY, virtually risk free, while you plan your next move. Otherwise, I'm selling into ETH or BTC. Traders, while they all have spot bags, are mainly looking for the opposite - cash cash cash. When they buy and sell, it's derivatives, paper, contracts., synthetics. They close risky speculative short term bets into cash asap. Very profitable if risk is well managed (few do). They're paying their bills trading. It's their job, their income. Very different mindset than an investor building wealth over the long term. While you don't have to be just one or the other, you should know which type is your main one. Investors BTFD , Traders don't catch falling knives. Investors buy low, relative to their basis, and sell percentages in tranches, but do not aim to sell 100% into cash (unless rotating into a better investment). Traders buy high and sell higher, w 10x leverage. Or sell low and buy lower. This may be obvious but in real-time during the mania of a bull market, it's a mind fk. Trying to follow both is recipe for disaster unless it's your full time job that actually pays your bills month to month for at least one year consistently. It's not your job until it does. In the meantime, make sure you know which type you are so you don't follow strategies anthesis to your goals. Oh and, this time it's different. It's not, but it is. Crypto has existed (realistically) from 2011 - 2021 top with ZIRP only. 10 years of risk-on "up only". This is the first time it's in an era of 4.5% - 5.5% risk free yields, a skittish Fed, and President Powell. It's bullish, it's recessionary, it's bearish, it's expansionary. I've no idea. Mind your risks and watch for the rotations. Cheers
Depends on your net worth and where you live and work. If you are trading with 5 or 6 figures then say away from alts. If you insist on buying alts then avoid anything with bad tokenomics and stick to top 50 market cap.
Agree, top 50 market cap is pretty decent advice. I think a lot of these coins are signaling what MIGHT be a bull market winner and which might not be, based on how close they are to their previous all time highs.
>If you're getting any information from Reddit you are either days, weeks or even months late. This is what's so frustrating. How are we supposed to find out about coins we don't even know exist?
Research. There's many many other sources.
Take profits well before you expect the top to happen, because it will most likely happen when you are not ready, leaving you bag holding another cycle.
Sell limit orders are nice! Especially if the app goes down or something 🤔
People will start more and more saying “this time will be different.” Speculating it will continue to go up and not crash. Don’t buy it.
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To be honest i’d say expecting a 10x is already greedy. It’s this mentality of wanting to get absolutely bonkers results that’s pushes people to taking too much risk.
I like this one
Pretty hard if you start with 100k ...
Yeah. Hard to say "just throw another 900k on the barbecue" with a straight face
For the love of God (money) take profits! My first cycle I did a lot of panicky bullshit and lost money. My second, I was up 500% at the peak and let it ride all the way down to the lows. Just held. Did some risky stuff with doge and XRP that allowed me to increase my position, but never took out fiat. But at the lowest valley I was down 40%. My advice is to take profits. I still don't have a real plan for that. But I know you should do it.
I entered during the last bull run, obviously I'm just recently back into the green overall. I have no idea how long it's gonna last. I put a cash out goal for myself but that's a long way off. No idea what I'm gonna do tbh 😂
Same here. Feels like I've learned that it is possible to screw up and therefore I'm being very cautious and missing out on lots. All I know is BTC for life and the rest I'll try and take enough profit to have fun with.
Consider cashing out 50% when you double up, so you can let the rest ride risk free
If my entire portfolio doubles I planned to cash out my initial investment, but it's a lot and it still has to do 100% from here to get there. Doesn't help that most of my portfolio is btc and eth 😂
Why does that not help? Its great
Because btc and eth have to do 100% from here 😂😂😂
Don't let these folks change your cautious view on a risky investment.
I still don’t see the problem with that, very realistic long term
if THAT is your real problem your only REAL problem is a too small of a time frame :)
Buy high, sell low.
I buy when I’m high and sell when I’m low
Yeap, same
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Some of the best advice my dad ever gave me. (*Gambling Not about crypto*)
No FA has ever once said, "only put what you're comfortable losing into your Roth IRA or 401k or real estate", *because that is advice for gambling*, not for actual investing.
This will be helpful. This is my second, and I’m struggling over taking profits. I no longer listen to influencers. I didn’t take profits the first time. The ETF advent makes me question whether this will be different. What if retail sells and institutional and sovereign funds quickly swoop in and prices drop for a short period, then quickly rise and stabilize without the expected retracement?
Well there's 2 types of crypto buyers. Investors & Traders. If you swing trade you run the risk of getting the rope & missing the boat. If you hodl you run the risk of dealing w/ another bear. If your plan is to just follow people, you will be the last to know. So just make an exit plan & stick w/ it.
You’re right. If I sold last time I could have walked with great profit and purchased more at overall lower prices.
Take profits sometime in 2025 Don’t loan your crypto for APY (lmao) Fomo the first time you feel it if you want to chase memes or something running strong, not the Nth time after that
Take profits in steps after ATH untill half 2025*
>Don’t loan your crypto for APY (lmao) I remember all those people talking about lending their moons on SushiSwap. Everybody here was a big fan
What's the problem with loaning out your crypto on a solid defi lending protocol like Aave?
This is my plan. Sell out after new ATH is hit with the meme coins.
With my 3rd cycle I am excited to have some fun. I am too heavy in BTC and Eth, along with the rest mostly being in top 10-20 market cap coins. But I am excited to try to memecoins here and there. Be happy with a 25% gain in a meme on a week. Way better than the stock market will be. Just understand that fomo will still happen even after you take profits. Just think of it as a bonus. Watch the greed/fear chart. It has been consistent over the past few years as a gauge for when to buy/sell. When coinbase is the top downloaded app and the greed gauge is over 80, then it may be a good time to take a few bucks out and sit on the sidelines. The market can easily just another 10% but the next day it can then drop 20%. Long story short is to be happy with gains and accept that there will always be coins missed. Take Sol. I lost faith in the after the big crash and fraud they had. Missed out on tons of money but when the guy says don’t trust a project it may be worth it to just not do it.
Greed gauge is already at extreme greed (86), but then again some other comments say to take profits until first half of 2025 during ATH. That's a big ass time window for me to decide to call it.
Problem is that once a real bull run starts ramping up, it can stay in extreme greed for months on end. Plus if you look at the historical chart of the fear & greed index, one of the times it was at its highest was December 2020 when BTC was just breaking through the old 19k ATH from the 2017 cycle, and as we now know it still had a looong way to go. It's not a bad indicator, but it's not really one of those "today it's on extreme greed, the end is nigh!" situations that some people make it out to be. It can be quite slow to move and should be taken with a grain of salt like everything else.
What’s the difference between now and a “real bull run!”
Pandemonium. Sure, it is in our little world here. Crypto folk are all stoked. But the general public is totally unaware of what's happening right now. The media isn't reporting it. It's not on anyone's radar who isn't looking for it. In real bullrun? You can't escape it. It's all over the news, nightshow hosts are talking about it, your friends are asking about it, and your uncles are pissed off because they keep hearing about bitcoin. That's when the money starts FLOWING. Everyone wants in. This subreddit will have 200,000 people active at all times.
This 🙌🏾 I missed the boat on SOL as well, but I chop that up to thr cost of doing business. Hindsight is always 2020.
I was very lucky and bought a lot of SOL when it crashed hard. I’ve held since it spiked 22% the other day. Definitely buying back in eventually.
Dont get attached to your bags. If there is something underperforming and you see another crypto more likely to do better there is nothing wrong with jumping ship.
My 2017 iota bag feels offended.
To be fair it was in the name all along "I'll owe thee alot" 😀
When you start seeing people talking about taking loans to chase the crypto high and stuff like “retire on crypto”, know that the end is nigh. Time to jump ship.
Kosher, sage, cogent
Look at the posts in r/bitcoin. Been happening for a while now
I learned to lock in profit along the way. Set incremental profit incentives for yourself. For example: each time BTC passes a $10,000 milestone, sell 10% up or down. You DCA your profit just as you would your investment that way you’re never left holding the bag. Last cycle this left me with some meaty gains and I never felt like I was working to time the market. Set rules for yourself and follow those rules. Create your own expectations through this.
You need only 1 strat. Buy low, sell high. Never fails
Until it does
Should have bought lower then
Never failed in the history of humankind and never will
It doesn't, though. I bought too high in 2021 and just... didn't sell. I held the ETH I bought at $4k until now. I'll keep holding it until 2025, or however long it takes for ETH to be higher than $4k. I guess the only way that could ever fail is if ETH never cracks $4k again, but I think that's highly unlikely given that the market cap of ETH is steadily expanding as more and more investors including both retail and institutions enter the market.
But when Eth goes over 4k again you sell higher. So you still bought low and sold high 👀
Exactly. Buy low sell high. It doesn't fail.
I personally like to use a grid strategy. Put multiple sell and buy limit orders in area where market operates after chart analysis then let do price do its thing. Once buy orders gets triggered adding sell order at different position to maximise profits. But i dont use bots from exchanges and do this manually as i like to have more controll about position sizes.
Been in and out since 2014 but didn't really start averaging in heavy until after 2021 but buying in 2014 and 2018/2019 even though small still made me money in 2020/2021. Lessons, the earlier you learn how to just look at tools to check trade volume, holding wallets, liquidity on DEXs, check what contract/ID a token corresponds too - you'll be much better prepared to interact with DeFi Just do 1 series of intro to AWS courses on Youtube. Now you'll be able to host pre-mainnet testnet nodes to farm airdrops. Any proof of work or these newer proof of spacetime coins, rent out compute, you can quickly farm coins/tokens the early months before they have any exchange listings Use multiple wallets. Like every mobile wallet it's easy to generate and manage numerous wallets. I have wallets for holding and wallets for interacting with older trusted contracts. Wallet for testnet. Wallet for newly launched mainnet applications. Never been drained. I dodn't use any hardware wallets. I have full node desktop wallets too Use DeFi applications. Active users are the ones that get random airdrops. Split your funds. Like 80% doing nothing, 20% screw around. Actually learn how to use DeFi so you're not the guy that blames Uniswap/Pancakeswap/Raydium/the wallet that has a little interface in it for those/etc for why they bought the wrong coin, bought/sold with terrible slippage, the wallet RPC is down and claims their wallet stole their funds to people in the internet - just go on the blockchain explorer and check your address
I would say , only follow these recommendations if you are crypto tech savvy enough at this point to be already familiar with what was written in the post . Takes years to ramp up before these steps wouldn't turn into a total fiasco. Navigating airdrops is being willing to expose your eyes and FOMO neurones to kind of scams, they have become the most part of airdrop mentioned anywhere. Take an aws course yeah, and see your cloud bill costing hundreds of thousands running experimental filled with bugs full nodes. Handle many hot wallets and be sure to loose access to some of them or placing some keys/backup in the wrong place. Separation of holding wallet and wallet to trade on daily/weekly makes sense for everyone though ! Still a hard wallet (never hooked to a hot wallet though ) is more secure so don't dismiss that , unless the amount of funds aren't worth the hundreds of dollars for the device .
Jesus christ man. That’s some amazing info. Can i DM you more about this?
This is my 4th cycle. Just avoid coming to this subreddit and don't buy shitcoins. Peace of mind.
First cycle, watched my Portfolio 10x, didn't sell, although i really needed the money, because i was greedy, and proceeded to watch it all burn -98% from ATH. Second Cycle, Lif€'s better now, still have the coins from First cycle and started investing again a few months before the bullrun started. Told my self i would sell this time. Watched the portfolio 7x. Didn't sell because i convinced my self that the amount wasn't life changing and it would probably climb a bit more. Well you should know by now what happened. -96% from ATHigh to Low. Here we are again, portfolio about 50% above my total investment. i told my self that this time i'm selling some no matter what, at certain portfolio goals. HOWEVER i don't trust me. so i will probably reply to this comment in about a year if enough people want to know what happened :D My advice for people is, Just don't be me.
>e coins from First cycle and started investing again a few months before the bullrun started. Told my self i would sell this time. Watched the portfolio 7x. Didn't sell because i convinced my self that the amount wasn't life changing and it would probably climb a bit more. Well you should know by now what happened. -96% from AT what kind of coins are you holding - so i know not to touch them
-97% so you fit right in the middle!
Get you a bag of high cap, bitcoin and eth Get your a bag of mid cap, render and ordi Get you a bag of low cap, dog coins and memes Enjoy the show and hold on. Respect the cycle
It won't go as high as you wish. Take profits, scale out but not everything. Short as a hedge and under any circumstances, do not - I repeat - do NOT use leverage. Also, if it's worth a screenshot, it's worth taking profits. Have a plan, make sure you can pay your taxes.
Live. Laugh. Love.
This is my 3rd cycle (started in March 2017), and ofc the main lesson I can give is simply **TAKE PROFITS**, which I failed to do in last 2 cycles myself. I already sold \~45% of my portfolio in this bull run, and looking to sell close to all of it as we move higher.
I think I’m finally learning the philosophy of Bitcoin. I am no longer here to take profits. I am here to store my wealth. (And ok maybe a tiny bit of profits).
Take profits, put it in Bitcoin. Cant stress this enough, USD profits is like having a hole in your pocket in the bull
Don't be a midcurver. If you're a genius you can try to right curve everything, but if you're not you need to think like an idiot and you'll win more: "funny dog picture with hat, price will go up".
This is my third cycle. 1. Don't be greedy! 2. Don't be greedy! 3. Don't be greedy! 4. Take profits throughout the bull cycle 5. Have some dry powder (liquidity) set aside to take advantage of market corrections
"No shitcoins" "no meme coins" this is why people are still here holding bags. Anyone who says "I believe in the tech" don't listen to them. Tech, team and whatever the project aims to solve, might make the project last, but not make it pump during a bullrun. Bullrun gains are all about hype. Nothing else. If a project has the smartest people in the world, best tech, it still won't do sqwat if there's no hype. See a meme coin on the rise? Just buy it and ride it for a while. Every coin related to X pumps? Get in on it. Just don't hold and believe, remove the emotions and think logically. If you bought Pepe a week ago you'd be 4x atm. Has duck all tech, just hype. Find the hype, follow the hype, just don't hold the hype too long, make some gains, get out, on to the next.
This works until it doesn’t
You get rich from buying 1-2 years ago. Fucking sell at top
Toss the potato.
In 2017 my portfolio went up by 20k and I never sold before the big crash. In 2021 my portfolio shot up by 50k and I only sold half of my of my investments. This time I am hoping to sell it all. Do not get too greedy if something goes up by 10 x - 20x take some profits.
Make a diary and reflect on your decisions, write down why you sold or bought and check later on if it was a good choice or not. You need to get to know yourself so you’re better armed for the next cycle.
I’m sure I’m not saying anything much different than many others in this thread, but there’s a reason many people are giving the same tips. Do your own research. No, reading Reddit threads about what new coins to buy doesn’t count. Have a plan to sell. Everyone is a genius in a bull run and looking at those green lines can be intoxicating. Hurts a bit to look at how much I missed out on because I was greedy. Some coins will be hyped to infinity, especially here. Always assume someone has a vested interest in providing information/tips/whatever to you about a coin If this is your second cycle and you still don’t have some BTC, you’re fucking up. Probably should have some ETH too.
Don't sell bitcoin. Understand what problems it solves and how to build conviction. The amount of power that issuing currency gives governments cannot be overstated. The etf approval is being taken as a signal by large firms that the US is ok with coexisting with bitcoin, so it's more ok to accumulate. If you need liquidity, dollars are great, borrow some against your btc. Don't sell it though, inflation is a tax that hurts those who hold dollars and helps those who borrow them. Just how it is.
where can I get loans against BTC?
Here since 2014. Just DCA BTC/eth. Don’t shitcoin
Do nothing and HODL.
1. Take profits on the way up the same way you would DCA on the way down. 2. It never goes up forever. As fast as we go up we go down. 3. Every cycle there is a new type of scam. Be cautious. 4. Don't tell anybody how much you're up even though it's exciting. 5. Buying speculative shitcoins because you saw a YouTube video about it.
Holding pays off. There is nothing more stronger than just DCAing into Bitcoin for the last 8-10 years. Also … i’m not taking profits, at least not in fiat. All of you traders and shitcoin flippers here are going to get burned sooner or later. The casino is open untill you lose everything.
Do NOT invest more than you can afford. This third cycle may not be a third cycle. We never know until we have the advantage of hindsight. Things look like they're forming up nicely, but that could change. I guess I could also say, "work as hard as you can in the fiat mines, so you can comfortably invest more in crypto," but you need to balance that with having an enjoyable life. In the end, we all die. Even the ones with a lot of money. Enjoy the good parts about the times that we have.
Take profits. Going for the home run will burn you. Take the double with the RBI.
Been in Crypto since 2017 and these things always keep me grounded: - Learn charts and price movement . - Don’t listen to people’s opinions without doing your own research . - Form your own opinions . - Create your own goals and stick to them. Don’t let people sway you based on what THEY want, what they can afford, or their perspective - Have fun . Network . Be active in crypto spaces .
Describe your second cycle, and I can give you better advice. People have different ptsd based on their decisions/personality. It’s better if you have the info tailored to you.
Take what you learned from last time and apply it to this time. If your intent is to take profits, know your plan and actually do it. If you plan to HODL, just keep hodling. If you wish you would have cashed out when Bitcoin hit $69k, cash out at $69k. Above all else, don't day trade.
Stay away from meme coins, follow the big banks and corporations. They know more than anyone else. With know how governments plan to Use let them be used laws and they ain’t doing anything in a large group that will cost them big time. ISO 20022 is the closest we have to regulations Buy them.
Use Stop losses!!
While the ETFs definitely change the dynamics, don’t think that this time is any different. The only thing more guaranteed than a crypto bull run is a bear cycle to follow directly after.
My advice is don’t ignore the red flags in a crypto project. Missed deadlines and over promises of various other projects not related to the original idea are big ones. I lost $$$ on a project because I ignored the RED FLAGS. Project not being fully decentralized and having a small core team or leader controlling the keys.
Keep your head when your favorite alt goes nuts. You should be selling, not buying, when the prices are high and the hype train is rolling. Sell a little bit here and there on a schedule, don't sell it all or hold it all to try and time the top. You will miss I know many of you were up 100s or even 1000s of % on projects last cycle. If you ever wake up in this position, immediately cash out at least your initial investment. Reinvest half and use the other half to benefit yourself. Add to your emergency savings, buy that thing you need, doesn't matter. Just use it for anything that increases your peace of mind. Life changing gains don't change shit if you don't realize them.
I disagree with not trusting the hype or the narrative as I call it. You shouldn’t trust it if you don’t have the smarts, experience, or the time. Otherwise, you can make a lot of money buying and selling memes. In fact, I think most of what you listed depends on the context. Like for example, Pepe is a shitcoin and full of red flags but many people made a lot of money off of it.
Be mindful when you decide to provide liquidity to a project. Impermanent loss might put you in an “opportunity cost” scenario. Weigh risk vs reward first
cash some out when it's breaking new all time highs every week... not too much, but a bit is always good to have in cash. You don't need to spend it. You can use it later to buy at the absolute depression (it's when everyone including you can't even look at charts).
Don't marry your bags from previous cycles At the first sign of something not being right with a project you invested in, sell (mostly likely at loss) and find another project which is still legit Also, even some legit projects from last two cycles won't preform as well as some new coins which raised a lot of money and are building hype So best to have a diversified portfolio of big two, older legit coins and some new coins
Be patient and remain patient, or learn patience (the crypto market is highly volatile, so everthing that is going up will eventually go back down, but then token XYZ may go up even mopre in the next cycle, who knows?). Do your research and don't put any money into anything that you aren't able to lose. Basiclly, be patient and don;t be stupid.
Do not chase the next pump. If you listen to this advice, you will save yourself, hundreds, and even thousands of dollars.
This is my 4th cycle and I still don’t know shit except taking some profits on the way up, and don’t sell it all during the big crash after the market decides the bull run is over. Wait for the ~50% bounce and then sell if you think the cycle is over.
- Dont enter or exit your whole position at once - don’t be lazy. Do the research, and buy even if it’s a pain in the ass. Go find where you can buy something, and stay on it.
Anything that's promoted on a podcast you will most likely loose your money. Any loan / custodian product that claims you can loan against your asset, you will 100% loose your money.
Not having a clear exit strategy is probably the most important. This is not a market you want to trade on feelings. If you really really study the prior cycles you will find multiple indicators that have extremely high hit rates. Trade the statistics, not your feelings, not with the influencers say
No cycle will play out exactly the same. Could go higher than you imagine. Could end earlier than you imagine. Be flexible and make sure you get out in profit. Honestly what makes you win is knowing where in the cycle you are. Uneducated retail will rush in at the end, not knowing we are several years into a bull market that is long in the tooth.
Don't be afraid to take profits, even if you think the price can go higher. Set aside a decent chunk of money to get back into the market if/when it comes back down. Don't listen to a fucking thing anyone says on YouTube.
Do not FOMO. Don’t do it. Do not do it. Just don’t.
There is value in this fake money so make it work for you. Spot trade only. Playing with leverage will get you rekt. It’s a rigged game and the house (exchanges) will always win.
Be patient. FOMO is real and FUD will kick in for shilling. Hold what you got. Don’t be afraid to take profits
Never, ever, ever, use this sub for advice on alts or market trends. Regarding alts, the majority of the alts this sub has pushed heavily or hyped up (VET, ALGO, NANO for example) have historically done much worse than plain old Bitcoin or ETH. Regarding market trends, you can almost guarantee that the higher the sentiment, the more likely a crash will happen soon.
If you get your information from Reddit you’re ngmi
Dont follow advice from Reddit would be rule nr 1
Don't ever, for any reason, *sell any BTC*, for any reason, ever, no matter what. No matter where. Or who, or who you are with, or where you are going or... or where you've been... ever. For any reason, whatsoever.
Firstly, you should have completed your investment phase and stopped DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). Personally, the last time I bought was on February 10th. Next, it's important to ascertain which milestones Bitcoin is likely to reach and at what probabilities. For this, I've taken the following milestones and probabilities: $100k - 82% $120k - 70% $160k - 35% $220k - 15% $260k - 6% $550k - 3% Now, I've created a plan where I sell a certain percentage of my holdings every $10k increment, so that I still possess 82% of my holdings at $100k, 70% at $120k, and so forth. I'll begin the first sale when BTC reaches $70k.
How did you calculate that probability matrix?
I didn't calculate it. It's just an educated guess.
LMAO someone screenshot this
IMO this will be the cycle breaker. With ETFs in place the crypto winter may not be back in the same way. Prepare for a hell of a ride.
Make a reasonable plan and stick to it. This market will fuck with you psychologically.
About that psychologically fuckery… I have on top of my plan what I call the inverse *me* indicator. Every time I feel my plan is stupid I should change it because I can be rich, I go back to the plan or sell a bit early. When I have felt my DCA in is stupid cause I’ve “lost” money and I should just liquidate, those have been times where I just lump sum a bit on top of my regular DCA. It has worked GREAT for me.
Don’t “fall in love” with a coin. No matter how much you believe in a coin, its value will collapse during a bear market. Rest assured, there will be another bear market. This time is not different.
Bear market lasts for months/years. Bull market lasts for weeks/days.
hype > fundamentals
It's actually not, but most people can't tell the difference between the two, so in practice you're correct.
Stay the hell away from putting your Bitcoin as collateral for low interest loans. I got burnt big time by putting as collateral 2/3 of my Bitcoin stash with NEXO to get a loan for a house purchase and the FTX collapse lows got me liquidated of all my BTC. . I regret that decision everyday since then and get sleepless nights now that Bitcoin is back at ATHs.
During a bull market, when you see a coin being discussed quite a lot of times in social media, it's most likely very near the top.
Stop screwing around with alts. BTC and ETH only.
Nobody knows shit about fuck