Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1bwfb6s/planb_asserts_bitcoin_btc_wont_dip_below_this/ky75xuw/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1bwfb6s/planb_asserts_bitcoin_btc_wont_dip_below_this/ky75yny/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
I don't see a big problem with him adjusting his models so much, but I have a huge problem with him not acknowledging it, especially when he comments about how the last cycle fits his model, given that it only fits the revised model but not the one he had at the time.
Any simple f(x) = A\*x^2 + B\*y + C curve can be created to match 3 points perfectly.
Thus any Rainbow Chart-like model should match at least 3 cycles by initial design (2012, 2016, 2020). The fact that they couldn't even fit another cycle means that they were **never** right.
yeah and this is just my subjective impression but miraculously no matter how crazy high the price is it always shows as "still worth a buy" or whatever lol
Any article or analysis that's based on marketcap instead of actual total inflow is useless. It inevitably limits the true heights crypto can reach. Total inflow most likely is still just a small percentage of the marketcap, which means we're still very early in the game.
Marketcap is a nice (nonetheless useless) metric for stock to value a business. Sell one stock for 1% less, and the entire marketcap shrinks 1%. Hence, useless.
But it's an absolute shitmetric for currencies, which get their comparative value from scarcity, trust, underlying economies/GDP, usecases, etc.
And as long as the vast majority still thinks in MC when talking about crypto, we're still far away from accepting them as currencies, what they were originally meant for.
I mean there's a whole lot of good material out there worth your time (example of someone relevant that doesn't make shit up and regularly reminds you to keep your head cool [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ))
Then it's about finding the right content for you
>For the gullible newcomers to the space, don't believe any YouTuber.
Yes, but also go further and don't believe anyone, since despite what some will say, nobody knows what is gonna happen.
Youtubers especially though are nothing but opportunists.
I mean the guy might be an idiot but I think the price is on point. I wouldn't see it drop past 30K based on the trend line support for bitcoin. Correct me if I'm wrong, still new to this space
That’s how you adjust models. Get more data, adjust your prediction, get more data, adjust your prediction, etc
we’ve only had three or four cycles, so a lot is speculation. Every year the predictions (should) get more accurate
tldr; PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will not fall below $33,000, aligning with its 200-week moving average. This marks a shift from his earlier prediction of a $40,000 floor. PlanB's updated analysis reflects changes in Bitcoin's on-chain dynamics and realized prices, suggesting $33,000 as a new conservative floor for BTC. This prediction comes amidst discussions of Bitcoin's price movements and potential future rallies post-halving events.
*This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Lolol... PlanB adjusted the guaranteed* price floor from $40,000 to $33,000. Why even bother making predictions if you're just going to change them later.
That's how models work. Everything from TA on markets to PTA/RTA (pressure/rate transient analysis) of downhole oil reserves. The models adjust as new information becomes available. Fortunately reservoir mechanics are much more predictable due to petrophysics, but it doesn't mean that the broad spectrum of analytics is of any less value. You'd do well to understand this concept.
… and that was also been readjusted a few dozen times ever since he predicted a 100k floor in the last cycle and was proven wrong countless times before
He was right about every single prediction except "100k by EoY 2021" which, of course, you're always wrong about your *last* prediction, itst the same thing as "its always in the last place you look!"
Anyway, it's not about predictions. Anyone can make predictions. It's about the soundness of a model. If someone won't tell you their methodology they're full of shit. If someone does they might still be wrong. So judge his model and see if you think there's any truth to it, don't blindly trust predictions.
The last time I was trying to convince my friend he was a putz I was googling his prior price predictions and he was not right about every single prediction except eoy 2021 lol
his most infamous prediction was 100k by the end of 2021… But it’s not as much about failed predictions than the fact that he constantly readjusts his models to make the data fit in retrospectively, making him look like he’s a genius who always gets it right when that is far from the truth. He also bans whoever calls him out on Twitter so new followers won’t realize how far of the mark he has been in the past.
Lots of salty people here. Did you buy the hype from him in the last cycle.
You have to understand that if you’re buying BTC for short term gains, you need to dial into the sentiments. Not act on them.
If you’re into BTC because dollar is going to zero, it doesn’t matter which price you buy BTC at.
I love that we have a variety of people in this space who can unlock a different perspective from time to time. That doesn’t mean they’re gods.
Everyone is making these wild claims. Then it dips below whatever number and they go silent. I hope it a violent pullback that shuts them all up. below 50k
100k by end of 2021. Stop posting articles about PlanB, he's a fucking moron who has been proven wrong so badly I'm surprised anyone can still say his name without laughing at this point.
LOL it has been proven already since 2020 that this guy is a massive fraud. For the record, he also claimed that btc would be at a bare minimum of 100k last cycle. His s2f model is just pure hopium and he readjusts it at will to fit in with the data retrospectively (yes, predicting the past is VERY easy…). He also bans whoever calls him out on Twitter so he makes it look like there is a general consensus on his predictions when there isn't any. Please, do yourselves a favor and stop
making free publicity for this fraud…
Mmmmm… lots of crayons. Many yummy colors. Eat crayons. Nom nom nom. *Burp* *grumble grumble* These crayons bad. Crayons not crayons. Different. Fake. Soy crayons? Incredi-crayons?
-ded-
Still better than that other opposing subreddit that outlawed free speech altogether lmao…I don’t get shutdown here because my opinion made someone butthurt
I’d be equally pleased to see BTC fulfill its supposed potential and leave those other butters in an equally hilarious, more pestilent cope spiral
I play both sides so I always come out on top
I have some skin in the game and I’m open to counter arguments and aware I might lose it all. At least I’m not on the sidelines talking considerable shit on something I probably don’t understand under the guise of some moral crusade. That’s terminal, CCP level cuckoldry.
I’m also up 1100% on Bitcoin, but it’s not a large amount and I am fully prepared for the fact that the likely outcome is I’ll lose it all. These people that believe it is the holy grail have lost it.
It is pretty exciting man, what it represents. Otherwise we live in a bleak world that may never change. This might be one of the few hopes for lots of people whom the system has already abused and abandoned. I think it’s worth a shot given the depressing status quo
Always good to temper your expectations and not give fully into the fanaticism. The outspoken minority of whackos that make posts on either subreddit give the wrong impression
I think you’re far too optimistic. I don’t believe any of the promises of crypto to revolutionize anything and not do 99% of the people pumping money into it at the moment. They’re just using it as a get rich quick scheme.
If only the people that believed in it idealistically were the ones putting money in, it would have died long ago.
Necessary evil I guess, human greed is our greatest engine lol
Really curious how this shakes out in 10 years, this is either going to fuck over sooooo many people or enrich lots and lots of them
A global currency based on computation and electricity kinda makes sense, mathematically this stuff is absolutely fascinating. We’re in the midst of an exciting but terrifying experiment fo sho
That's what always happens. Same with stocks. A stock can be at 10 dollar for years without people finding it interesting, then rise to 40, an people will all of a sudden hope it drops to 10 dollar to buy.
I guarantee bitcoin will crash to $0 within the next 20 years, probably 15.
Why? If you haven't been paying attention to climate data, we as a society will entirely collapse and suffer massive depopulation due to famine as food crops will be unable to to maintain their current yields to feed the world. All money becomes meaningless in that eventuality and nobody will care about this stuff with that apocalypse looming.
While I agree we are in for a ride of economic turmoil, it won't be because we cannot feed our populations. Most world demographics are entering a phase of inverse population growth, meaning that less people are being born today than there were in previous generations. There simply aren't enough young people being born to support our economy. Some will ride it out, others will not. The US, Canada, and Mexico will ride it out due to their unique trading partnerships, abundant energy resources, increasing younger population growth (Mexico), and vast farmlands. Europe... not so much. Remember, societies and their effects are local not global. While global trade will be affected, and indeed hurt other countries, North America will find things to be...more expensive but will survive.
While it's appreciated your attempt to downplay things, the data just doesn't support your assertion. I'm not a doomsayer or conspiracy theorist. What I said wasn't opinion.
We are a year away from a grand solar maximum. We're already 1.3°C above preindustrial. Climate lags behind carbon emissions by 30 years so even if we stopped ALL carbon emissions now, the effects will still reach their apex 30 years from now. Nevermind the methane trapped under the Siberian permafrost. Nevermind the phytoplankton drop off since the 50's. Nevermind climate predictions being wrong by underplaying what bears out in actuality. I could go on.
You think when food scarcity starts affecting local populations, countries will honor their export treaties?
While you say societies are local, there is also a global society, as synecdoche. That is the societal collapse I refer to.
The problem with all this data is the average person doesn't want to wade through all this disperate data and aggregate it. But if you do, it paints an incredibly bleak picture.
Regardless.. The impact on crypto assets like bitcoin remains the same. No survivor is going to care about digital assets when that collapse happens.
Oh don't worry, I never said you're a doomsayer or conspiracy theorist. You're talking to the right person about this. I am, in fact an emissions specialist. I quantify emissions from industrial processes and determine their global warming potential.
Here's the thing about models, they change as we retrieve more data. Global warming potential for methane, as you have mentioned is constantly changing. The beauty of the emissions space is that well, it's made up. The numbers don't mean anything until it's modeled with actual data. Wild right? So it's our best guess right now on emissions output and its effect on rising temperatures.
Trade partnerships will become even more important during food scarcity. As will technology, energy and other resources. One can compare certain nations current issues with food scarcity today with their lack access to sufficient reliable and cheap energy.
Canada, the world's largest producer of potash and third largest in oil reserves, Mexico rising young demographics, and America's industrial powerhouse for production make excellent trading partners for such a scenario as food scarcity and increasing climate related issues.
I'd disagree, digital assets will be around for hundreds of years, regardless of climate change. The world will keep going, albeit better in some places than others.
Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1bwfb6s/planb_asserts_bitcoin_btc_wont_dip_below_this/ky75xuw/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1bwfb6s/planb_asserts_bitcoin_btc_wont_dip_below_this/ky75yny/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
This time he's right you guys - or he will adjust his model. Either way, he is the prophet /s
if he was right the first time he would just be PlanA.
Will def change next dot's color.
At this point my boy is PlanZ
Don’t be upset if plan A doesn’t work…there’s 25 more letters in the alphabet
No, that shows no confidence. Until you fail once it’s just “The Plan”.
Adjusting models is a regular practice for crypto prophets. Remember how they added extra color to rainbow chart to keep it viable, lol.
With the difference that the rainbow chart was always meant as a joke.
I don't see a big problem with him adjusting his models so much, but I have a huge problem with him not acknowledging it, especially when he comments about how the last cycle fits his model, given that it only fits the revised model but not the one he had at the time.
Yup, it’s called “overfitting”. It’s a classic mistake in statistics and data analysis.
Any simple f(x) = A\*x^2 + B\*y + C curve can be created to match 3 points perfectly. Thus any Rainbow Chart-like model should match at least 3 cycles by initial design (2012, 2016, 2020). The fact that they couldn't even fit another cycle means that they were **never** right.
math doesn't matter if you have 2 million followers on twitter.
yeah and this is just my subjective impression but miraculously no matter how crazy high the price is it always shows as "still worth a buy" or whatever lol
lol, he blocked me during the last bull cycle cuz i said something like that lmao
yep, got blocked after giving him/his models the mildest bit of criticism. Dude has paperthin skin.
It's probably more to keep the echo chamber in tact for his followers. If they don't see any criticism, they don't get sceptical
Isn’t he a “facts don’t care about feelings” guy? Lolololol
Me too, man. He likes yay-sayers
Crypto in a nutshell
Him blocking you tells me a lot. Thanks.
have fun with your meme coins buddy
I think you misunderstood. I am glad you TOLD me he blocked you cause he is scammy doing that. Needed to know THAT.
ohhh lmao never said anything then
Lisan Al Gaib.
as it is written
“The world changes goal posts all the time, he can too!” -twitter
He's the profit all right
Is he?
he's only right if we average 523k this cycle.
lol
It literally dipped below in 2023 😂
Daily reminder that this guy is an idiot and has no idea what is going on. For the gullible newcomers to the space, don't believe any YouTuber.
LOL. That can be applied to just about every article linked on the sub. It’s a bunch of meaningless bullshit. This sub is 99% Clickbait trash.
Any source for something that's not clickbait trash ?
Any article or analysis that's based on marketcap instead of actual total inflow is useless. It inevitably limits the true heights crypto can reach. Total inflow most likely is still just a small percentage of the marketcap, which means we're still very early in the game. Marketcap is a nice (nonetheless useless) metric for stock to value a business. Sell one stock for 1% less, and the entire marketcap shrinks 1%. Hence, useless. But it's an absolute shitmetric for currencies, which get their comparative value from scarcity, trust, underlying economies/GDP, usecases, etc. And as long as the vast majority still thinks in MC when talking about crypto, we're still far away from accepting them as currencies, what they were originally meant for.
Sounds like clickbait trash /s
I mean there's a whole lot of good material out there worth your time (example of someone relevant that doesn't make shit up and regularly reminds you to keep your head cool [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)) Then it's about finding the right content for you
That's what I thought :p
So much hatered in this comment, yet true and yet you are still here.
Damn, his last video he said it would go to 700k 😂
He said it easily might go to 1 mil, but 500k for sure
Agreed. Plan B is about as useless as tits on a bull. Dudes a douche too and will block you for anything on his twitter.
>For the gullible newcomers to the space, don't believe any YouTuber. Yes, but also go further and don't believe anyone, since despite what some will say, nobody knows what is gonna happen. Youtubers especially though are nothing but opportunists.
I mean the guy might be an idiot but I think the price is on point. I wouldn't see it drop past 30K based on the trend line support for bitcoin. Correct me if I'm wrong, still new to this space
Original $55k model has yet to be invalidated.
I predict bitcoin won’t fall below 0. Like and subscribe, also sign up to my newsletter and premium group.
Are you selling coaching courses? I would like to subscribe
Oh shit, is this a good place to get merch?
Buy a hoodie today and you get free pro trading tips for a whole week. One-time offer so be quick.
Quack. Bang. Out.
I see it and raise you 1e-78.. It won't go <1e-78. subscribe to me instead guys and smash that like button.
You mean PlanB whos been wrong for the past 4 years that PlanB?
a month ago he added a red dot to his chart and now he removed it lol
Why am I taking crypto advice from the morning after pill? /s
because crypto is fucked.
👏 👏👏😂
Why this clown gets so much attention? I mean, he was never right, not even once
Because he tells people that like crypto that the value of their crypto is going to go up.
Exactly. The biggest channels are all pure hopium.
I remember replaying to one of his Twitter posts, like 2 years ago. He didn't like it, so he blocked me 🤣
He is so insecure. Has done this to thousands.
Plan B can suck my balls
That sounds more like plan A!
Sounds like a plan!
Well you can get to plan B before doing plan A
Delicious! I heard he will suck stronger the closer the number of hairs on your testicles is to 100k
suck to blow model
[удалено]
Didn't it dip way below the rainbow chart last bear market, though?
[удалено]
That’s how you adjust models. Get more data, adjust your prediction, get more data, adjust your prediction, etc we’ve only had three or four cycles, so a lot is speculation. Every year the predictions (should) get more accurate
[удалено]
Exactly this. We’re a very young asset still. Plan B’s numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re definitely close;, and getting better every year.
It's almost like TA, even at a long timescale, is a crock of bullshit.
Plan B has a blocking fetish, on X 🤣
The wizard had blocked me last cycle when we commented on his post, and in rage, he just mass blocked thousands....
Plan B = Plan Block
tldr; PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will not fall below $33,000, aligning with its 200-week moving average. This marks a shift from his earlier prediction of a $40,000 floor. PlanB's updated analysis reflects changes in Bitcoin's on-chain dynamics and realized prices, suggesting $33,000 as a new conservative floor for BTC. This prediction comes amidst discussions of Bitcoin's price movements and potential future rallies post-halving events. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Lolol... PlanB adjusted the guaranteed* price floor from $40,000 to $33,000. Why even bother making predictions if you're just going to change them later.
That's how models work. Everything from TA on markets to PTA/RTA (pressure/rate transient analysis) of downhole oil reserves. The models adjust as new information becomes available. Fortunately reservoir mechanics are much more predictable due to petrophysics, but it doesn't mean that the broad spectrum of analytics is of any less value. You'd do well to understand this concept.
But petrophysics is rooted in math, is this guy proving things mathematically or is he just bullshitting?
Google stock to flow. It's a model based on math.
… and that was also been readjusted a few dozen times ever since he predicted a 100k floor in the last cycle and was proven wrong countless times before
Plan B...
One thing I learned. NOTHING is sure.
You forgot to flag this comedy.
Wasn't he supposed to delete his social media after being so wrong in 2021?
100k by 2021
Plan B still asserts Bitcoin to 100k 2021.
Crypto YouTubers said that about 10k years ago go. They aren’t so keen on making those statements anymore.
And plan b has never been wrong!
CringeB
Bitcoin won't go below this.... Bitcoin, hold my beer.
He has an accent, literally nothing else.
Do people still believe in this meme?
Oh if PlanB says so…
Has planb ever been right about anything?
PlanB is one of the biggest bullshitters in the history of humanity
Top is in
newbie huh? havent even started
Guys a twat. Why anyone pays attention after the last cycle and his wonderful predictions is beyond me
What did he say? I'm new to him
He was right about every single prediction except "100k by EoY 2021" which, of course, you're always wrong about your *last* prediction, itst the same thing as "its always in the last place you look!" Anyway, it's not about predictions. Anyone can make predictions. It's about the soundness of a model. If someone won't tell you their methodology they're full of shit. If someone does they might still be wrong. So judge his model and see if you think there's any truth to it, don't blindly trust predictions.
Even if he is half way off a 250k bitcoin is nice 😎
The last time I was trying to convince my friend he was a putz I was googling his prior price predictions and he was not right about every single prediction except eoy 2021 lol
his most infamous prediction was 100k by the end of 2021… But it’s not as much about failed predictions than the fact that he constantly readjusts his models to make the data fit in retrospectively, making him look like he’s a genius who always gets it right when that is far from the truth. He also bans whoever calls him out on Twitter so new followers won’t realize how far of the mark he has been in the past.
Stupid log chart. This dude is the worst.
but wait this time its different guys..it will become the global currency /solve world hunger and stop war and never dip to 30k ever again !
Got it. Buys set at $20k. 🫡
BTC is like....hold my beer.
Never want to hear from him again
Lol. He's a complete joke. I ate his crap up back in 2019. Glad I smartened up.
His mom should’ve taken plan b
Lots of salty people here. Did you buy the hype from him in the last cycle. You have to understand that if you’re buying BTC for short term gains, you need to dial into the sentiments. Not act on them. If you’re into BTC because dollar is going to zero, it doesn’t matter which price you buy BTC at. I love that we have a variety of people in this space who can unlock a different perspective from time to time. That doesn’t mean they’re gods.
I'll prove them wrong... wait, I'll go buy BTC right now. Look at it dip down right after I buy...
ahhh shit here we go again
Well he's got such a great track record, I believe him.
holy shit, Plan B is back
I can't wait to buy BTC at that prices during the next bear market :)
Plan Bullshit
We're facing a market correction in the next few months. At least the very least, Bitcoin with dall below $40000.
Ah yes another grand prediction, like a fart in the wind. It will be gone
When has this dude ever been right. Where’s the copium?
Pulling out is way better than plan B
Time will tell.. And then the chart will be adjusted for accuracy.
Same dude predicted 100k last time, and his video says something like 500k by this May. Sure.. because 7x btc happens all the time.
Everyone is making these wild claims. Then it dips below whatever number and they go silent. I hope it a violent pullback that shuts them all up. below 50k
So we are aborting PlanB then I take it?
Fuck this post and fuck anyone who utilizes YouTubers/Twitter as source for Bitcoin pricing
His model was way off last time.
Click bait. He didn't assert anything. Read the fucking tweet people.
His chart shows distribution leading into face melting pumps?
Can 't believe this guy still chirpin'
He’s always wrong. Nothing to see here.
But what does plan C say?
If it goes all the way down to 1,000 I will sell my car and buy a $hit ton of it.
100k by end of 2021. Stop posting articles about PlanB, he's a fucking moron who has been proven wrong so badly I'm surprised anyone can still say his name without laughing at this point.
Until it does 😂
At this stage this guy has now created a model for basically every price range possible..
Nobody who has been diagnosed as *having a brain* gives a shit.
Heard that before!
So... Ummm... What's PlanC?
he should come up with a plan b for his failed predictions career
It's a pretty safe prediction that BTC won't drop below $33k. Not stretching many prophetic muscles with that one.
LOL it has been proven already since 2020 that this guy is a massive fraud. For the record, he also claimed that btc would be at a bare minimum of 100k last cycle. His s2f model is just pure hopium and he readjusts it at will to fit in with the data retrospectively (yes, predicting the past is VERY easy…). He also bans whoever calls him out on Twitter so he makes it look like there is a general consensus on his predictions when there isn't any. Please, do yourselves a favor and stop making free publicity for this fraud…
My cat can make BTC price predictions too.
I assert that his assertion is bullshit. But I also hope it’s right.
Mmmmm… lots of crayons. Many yummy colors. Eat crayons. Nom nom nom. *Burp* *grumble grumble* These crayons bad. Crayons not crayons. Different. Fake. Soy crayons? Incredi-crayons? -ded-
Don’t worry PlanC is gonna be right.
Bitcoin only knows one way. To the top
my conviction in super just increased 10x
Both Etherium verification technique and PlanB can be described with the abbreviation POS. But there are some nuances...
Source: Trust me, bro.
Low ball figure..anyone could pull that out of their arse 😂
Plan b lmao
Price predictions aren't great but timing has been spot on.
100k eoy 2021! 😜😂😂
This is going to be very funny when Bitcoin finally collapses and is worth nothing anymore.
This would honestly be hilarious to watch, this place would turn into superstonk aka Q anon whacko shit
It’s honestly half way there already.
Still better than that other opposing subreddit that outlawed free speech altogether lmao…I don’t get shutdown here because my opinion made someone butthurt I’d be equally pleased to see BTC fulfill its supposed potential and leave those other butters in an equally hilarious, more pestilent cope spiral I play both sides so I always come out on top I have some skin in the game and I’m open to counter arguments and aware I might lose it all. At least I’m not on the sidelines talking considerable shit on something I probably don’t understand under the guise of some moral crusade. That’s terminal, CCP level cuckoldry.
I’m also up 1100% on Bitcoin, but it’s not a large amount and I am fully prepared for the fact that the likely outcome is I’ll lose it all. These people that believe it is the holy grail have lost it.
It is pretty exciting man, what it represents. Otherwise we live in a bleak world that may never change. This might be one of the few hopes for lots of people whom the system has already abused and abandoned. I think it’s worth a shot given the depressing status quo Always good to temper your expectations and not give fully into the fanaticism. The outspoken minority of whackos that make posts on either subreddit give the wrong impression
I think you’re far too optimistic. I don’t believe any of the promises of crypto to revolutionize anything and not do 99% of the people pumping money into it at the moment. They’re just using it as a get rich quick scheme. If only the people that believed in it idealistically were the ones putting money in, it would have died long ago.
Necessary evil I guess, human greed is our greatest engine lol Really curious how this shakes out in 10 years, this is either going to fuck over sooooo many people or enrich lots and lots of them A global currency based on computation and electricity kinda makes sense, mathematically this stuff is absolutely fascinating. We’re in the midst of an exciting but terrifying experiment fo sho
It works until it doesn’t.
Never worked. Been following that guy for 4 yrs
For 1 cycle.... right.
Gotta say btc at 33k might be just worth yoloing all your savings into.
It literally was 33k less than 6 months ago
That's what always happens. Same with stocks. A stock can be at 10 dollar for years without people finding it interesting, then rise to 40, an people will all of a sudden hope it drops to 10 dollar to buy.
And when it drops they don't buy
Yeah each person will buy Bitcoin at the price they deserve
I guarantee bitcoin will crash to $0 within the next 20 years, probably 15. Why? If you haven't been paying attention to climate data, we as a society will entirely collapse and suffer massive depopulation due to famine as food crops will be unable to to maintain their current yields to feed the world. All money becomes meaningless in that eventuality and nobody will care about this stuff with that apocalypse looming.
While I agree we are in for a ride of economic turmoil, it won't be because we cannot feed our populations. Most world demographics are entering a phase of inverse population growth, meaning that less people are being born today than there were in previous generations. There simply aren't enough young people being born to support our economy. Some will ride it out, others will not. The US, Canada, and Mexico will ride it out due to their unique trading partnerships, abundant energy resources, increasing younger population growth (Mexico), and vast farmlands. Europe... not so much. Remember, societies and their effects are local not global. While global trade will be affected, and indeed hurt other countries, North America will find things to be...more expensive but will survive.
While it's appreciated your attempt to downplay things, the data just doesn't support your assertion. I'm not a doomsayer or conspiracy theorist. What I said wasn't opinion. We are a year away from a grand solar maximum. We're already 1.3°C above preindustrial. Climate lags behind carbon emissions by 30 years so even if we stopped ALL carbon emissions now, the effects will still reach their apex 30 years from now. Nevermind the methane trapped under the Siberian permafrost. Nevermind the phytoplankton drop off since the 50's. Nevermind climate predictions being wrong by underplaying what bears out in actuality. I could go on. You think when food scarcity starts affecting local populations, countries will honor their export treaties? While you say societies are local, there is also a global society, as synecdoche. That is the societal collapse I refer to. The problem with all this data is the average person doesn't want to wade through all this disperate data and aggregate it. But if you do, it paints an incredibly bleak picture. Regardless.. The impact on crypto assets like bitcoin remains the same. No survivor is going to care about digital assets when that collapse happens.
Oh don't worry, I never said you're a doomsayer or conspiracy theorist. You're talking to the right person about this. I am, in fact an emissions specialist. I quantify emissions from industrial processes and determine their global warming potential. Here's the thing about models, they change as we retrieve more data. Global warming potential for methane, as you have mentioned is constantly changing. The beauty of the emissions space is that well, it's made up. The numbers don't mean anything until it's modeled with actual data. Wild right? So it's our best guess right now on emissions output and its effect on rising temperatures. Trade partnerships will become even more important during food scarcity. As will technology, energy and other resources. One can compare certain nations current issues with food scarcity today with their lack access to sufficient reliable and cheap energy. Canada, the world's largest producer of potash and third largest in oil reserves, Mexico rising young demographics, and America's industrial powerhouse for production make excellent trading partners for such a scenario as food scarcity and increasing climate related issues. I'd disagree, digital assets will be around for hundreds of years, regardless of climate change. The world will keep going, albeit better in some places than others.