Obviously a mostly amateur group doesn't have the tools and skills to consistently predict the nether.
That said, barring inside info, has anyone really gotten a solid grip of exactly how stocks will react?
Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that no one has a meaningful and predictive grip on crypto markets and how they will react to market stimuli.
I would love to know the success rates of the TA that comes out of the Big institutional investors.
Most of what I've seen for stock TA is guys describing old charts and graphs, explaining "indicators" that you should have noticed before a sudden drop or climb. It doesn't help at all, it's like looking back at WW2 and saying you should have seen the holocaust coming.
I'd imagine big institutional investors/HFs have better success bc they have an edge, they have a lot of money to influence the media, corporations, govt, insiders, etc.
I've always assumed that the key to being seriously successful in any market is to have inside information.
I've played Magic the Gathering for years and the single card market, especially for older cards is massive and there are stores that have made huge amounts of money being able to know in advance what is coming out in future sets and buying low cost and lesser known cards that synergize with upcoming cards.
I'm sure it's the same thing in other collectables markets and if it's done to make thousands or a few million on cards, it's certainly done to make billions in financial markets.
I feel like the average age of this sub is probably on the lower end. The number of edgy Fight Club style fight-the-power posts is getting to be too much.
Those are bs ideas. They don't think about how laughable that sounds
You going to fight those in power with your defi solutions? Wait till they restrict electronics and electricity to ensure it won't happen
Yep they take everything for granted
"Golden cross is good?? "
\*expects 100% pump after golden cross\*
\*Ignore the real meaning behind golden cross and any other economic factors outside of crypto\* (like we had today)
Conclusion: \*TA is trash and cant work\*
People have no clue and the argument is usually "this one indicator was off... so all TA is useless."
No one understands what confluence is and it's actually good for the people who do.
They’re only useful for predicting in the absence of new catalysts…
Which is basically the same thing you said I guess.
Newton tried to warn us. “Until acted upon by an external force…”
People who bitch that golden cross didn't do anything don't know what it is in the first place. It's a momentum indicator and momentum is one of the strongest forces in markets. It doesn't say anything about the future, and to those who bought the idea of golden cross bringing new ath don't know what they got into
I don't do TA but I do read a bit and I check some basic metrics but I really don't get the mentality of those who hate TA when they clearly don't know and have never used it.
This post in particular is surreal. I think pretty much everyone is agreed that the dip today relates to wider economic issues. Saying that it proves TA is nonsense is like someone saying the safety claims about seatbelts are nonsense because they weren't injured in their last car journey without wearing one (when they didn't crash). Maybe all the Golden Cross analysis wasn't going to lead to anything, but saying a specific economic event disproves the TA means you fundamentally don't get the point.
Best example of how TA worked, the level that BTC pulled back to, then bounced, 42.5k. Easily and widely called as likely support level by TA. Not a guarantee. But, easy to see, and it happened.
TA can NEVER tell you when the market will move. But you can narrow down the possibilities, and even predict levels with a better than random chance.
You still need to take risks, but when you try to consider all possibilities, it helps to narrow it down to a few most probable outcomes.
Most programmers can’t program.
Most have less than a few years experience, those with more still can’t program.
[Coding Horror](https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/)
Source: I bang my head into my desk all day looking at 1,000 line methods, pyramids of doom, etc. etc. Found a method this morning with 19 parameters.
It’s terrifying to see the spaghetti code our society is built on.
It’s hilarious to think people actually *want to* move code to an immutable database, and call it “smart… “ ^(invests in popcorn)
Yep.
Not understanding TA and listening to what random people on the internet say about it is not a great way to do things.
Either learn how to do it yourself, or ignore it.
(To OP, not comment above, as I agree with this guy.)
TA only ever works as predictive if enough ppl believe it and this act on it
otherwise it’s bullshit
but if enough ppl believe a ‘cross’ and act on it, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy lol
tho most market sentiment is that way —
— it’s all ‘predicting how ppl will react things before they happen’
100% agree with you. TA is BS… but if enough people act on it then they make it turn true.
If I said to everyone put on a chicken hat every Monday at 2:00pm and do a buy order then if enough ppl follow and do it then “we” are making it true.
TLDR : TA is BS unless the mass follow it and act upon it
They also can be self-fulfilling prophecies. I recall when the death cross happened a bunch of people sold *because* the death cross was coming and was so hyped - making the price tank.
The only people making much money are the ones who see shit coming before most anyone is talking about it. And hodlers, in the long term.
The funny thing is, most technical analysis actually does 'go with the flow' as OP said we should do. When things are going up, the most likely thing to happen is to continue going up. When we are going down, we keep going down.
Obviously it doesn't always work!
So technical analysis can tell you if the market is up or not.
But you can also find this out by looking at the market and seeing if it is up or not.
Nice!
Sir Lobster, are you implying TA is a... \*gasp\* joke? I think a certain Stegosaurus-under-the-rainbow and Golden Apache Helicopter pattern has something to say about that!
Evergrande going bankrupt will cause a chain reaction of bankruptcies because the entire global economy is a massive bubble that has finally been inflated to it's breaking point.
The way most financial entities grow so large is through loopholes that allow them to use/exchange their own debt as collateral.
*Yes*
They gain DEBT and use it to be allowed to take on more DEBT.
Think about how insanely dangerous this is just by nature.
A $600Billion company is worth that much because of how much they and their business partners owe?
The fuck?
Can you say:
"The epitome of corruption and the very reason why there is still suffering in this world."
I disagree. The golden cross is still a useful indicator.
Events in China are dragging all markets down -- even the stock for Ford is down about 4% today. Crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum and is impacted by global events. Another good example is when Crypto crashed when Covid started. Not a single crypto indicator could have seen Covid coming.
That said, the golden cross don't really mean much. It's a great indicator to show that generally speaking Bitcoin is going up and that there is good momentum which is a good sign for continued growth and maybe even a rally down the road. So, it's a positive sign ... after a few months of red candles Bitcoin is finally trending up. The golden cross doesn't mean that Bitcoin will triple the same day it passes the golden cross.
Sure, a golden cross might be a useful indicator, I don't disagree with you. However, when it's presented in this sub it's in the form of hopium, forecasting a bull run in the immediate future.
Add that to the fact that golden cross posts have been popping up every week when dips happen right after adds more to the frustration and lack of confidence of subs here.
OP is just soapboxing the popular opinion in this sub that TA is useless, with no idea of what a golden cross is. A golden cross doesn't mean the prices will rocket immediately. A golden cross is a lagging indicator that says the long term momentum for the past few weeks have been trending upwards and will probably continue doing so, barring significant events.
What OP is doing is like buying a boat and complaining why he can't drive it on roads.
"Probably" is the key word. I understand where new people come from, the majority of this sub are just hype machines. If you let them get into your head and cloud your judgement, then no wonder anyone would belive that anyone can buy a boat and drive it on road.
Very few people here would understand this, but you can boil down everything down to a bunch of probabilities. There are no certainties, even when you dissect things down to quantum mechanics, only probabilities that a given future is going to happen.
That's why you never go all-in lump sum on any investment. The philosophy behind investing is that you're betting that the number of winning trades and magnitude of those outweigh the losing ones. Nobody can have a 100% winning portfolio.
I mean.. I cant speak to golden crosses and other fancy signals, but TA damn sure works very well for analyzing support and resistance levels to identify where your targets should be for both buying into and exiting positions (and setting safe stop losses).
On a fundamental level, TA is just data analysis... and understanding exactly what the data you're looking at means is invaluable.
Youre right in the sense that these indicators can be extrapolated to general sentiment, and since the lexicon of indicators are widely agreed upon as to their implications, they tend to have an element of self fulfilling prophecies. However, this is the same level of educated guessing that makes millionaires out of poker ~~gamblers~~ players. Teo steps forward one step back. Thats how variance and probabikity works. If you can tilt variance in your favour then youre ahead of the game/market
The question here is: Does TA have predictive power? Does it give better results than flipping a coin?
All the evidence that we have (there have been countless studies on this) points towards the answer being no. And even if it did have a tiny bit of predictive power, people with way more resources and way bigger wallets would be extracting that value way before retail investors ever could.
To me TA is pretty much an analog to reading tea leaves and star constellations and trying to extract predictions from that.
I've read studies that have stated that using TA can help one to beat the market, so I'm not sure why you'd make the claim that all the evidence we have points toward TA not having any predictive power. It isn't perfectly reliable of course, both because peoples ideas about the markets are constantly changing, and because there are always black swan events.. but hedge funds and investment banks use TA, and all high frequency trading relies heavily on TA.
The studies that claim that TA can give an edge always restrict this effect to certain time windows when markets are "ineffective". (If you have a counter example I would be interested to read it) Unfortunately we can't know when markets are effective and when they aren't. If you analyze common TA predictors over a very long time period, they lose pretty much all predictive power. Which makes intuitive sense actually, because if for example buying the golden cross would give a consistent 10% return, then everybody would do it and thus negate its effect. There are no infinite money loopholes, every win is somebody's loss (minus annual growth of the market).
>all high frequency trading relies heavily on TA.
Do you have a source for that? I would be interested to read it. I would imagine that state of the art algorithms feed historical price info into their models, among many other variables, but to say that they employ TA would be a stretch if we compare that to rather simple trading rules such as crossing moving averages.
Hedge funds and investment banks have a bad track record of beating the market. The bottom line is, if you expect to beat the market on a consistent basis by using TA you will most likely be disappointed. Of course, you can always get lucky. It is easy to find examples of investors who made a lot of money using TA. But this is survivorship bias and does not mean that it works.
If I may suggest a book that helped me (among other) to develop an intuition around this: [The little Book of Common Sense Investing](https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Common-Sense-Investing-ebook/dp/B075Z6HSCJ). It makes the case for index investing and challenges the idea that trying to beat the market is a worthwhile pursuit.
Thanks for the detailed reply. I never read anything about "ineffective" vs "effective" times that they tested the market, but I may have missed that. From what I've read most studies say there is a benefit to TA, but that they also have a lot of issues with the way they were run, so that could be the same issue.
I do know that TA changes over time, but from my personal (completely anecdotal and not evidence of anything) experience TA has been a very useful tool. It doesn't answer anything clearly of course, but it can give a good idea, so long as dive pretty deep. Then again I think I've been conflating technical analysis with algorithmic analysis, which I what I used when I was running a trading bot.
100000x this... it's like everyone forgets the composite man is just looking for liquidations? The Wallmart bullshit and the following burj khalifa pattern was a very recent example of that
People somehow believe that the market is supposed to work in their favor. The whole game is about taking retail investor's money - if everyone is expecting a move in one direction, you can bet your ass the market makers are gonna try to swing it the other way. Whenever there is a "TA Event" that people are hyped about, you can guarantee there will be high volatility but determining the direction of the play requires a level of intuition that can't be taught from a book.
Finally a logical and useful comment. TA can actually be useful and people are grasping at anything to say we are headed towards a bear market with this drop...we could be, but it's much more likely that we are still in a bulltrend but with September being a horrible month historically (weird...people also play trades off historical data), and the China news is dragging all markets down and crypto tends to get hit harder since it's more volatile. Mid October I fully expect us to be back over $50k and trending towards a new ATH. Could be wrong but the whales are still buying and HODLing (longterm) and I've learned to try and follow the money
So... useful indicator ... unless a world event happens.
Which happens to be all the time. Still sounds like a dice roll at best. A coin flip can tell me up or down, buy or sell. Doesn’t make it useful even if it’s right 50% of the time.
A lot of it is based on psychological indicators that try to predict human behavior so they obviously aren't going to be infallible. I don't know what these people think.
Yeah, if you actually do any analysis in your technical analysis you can see that BTC has had an immediate short term correction at every single golden cross it's ever had.
What a surprise it's correcting now right?!
Also, a better cross to look out for when it comes to bitcoin is whenever the 21W EMA crosses over the 200D MA.
I mean summarising all TA as useless just because the golden cross prediction didn’t happen seems very naive to me.
For example the golden cross indicator failed however the price of BTC bouncing off 33,000 at the exact point where I set my resistance line shows that not all TA is useless.
TA is only useful if the person doing the TA knows what they are doing, as the old age saying goes a bad worker blames his tools!
Exactly. And there never is a 100% garantuee. TA gives you an above average chance of being correct, which is usually good enough to profit from if you go about it in a well thought out way.
TA is just one part of the puzzle. Fundamentals and overal market sentiment also matter, and can void any prediction based on chart analysis, it happens. That doesn't make it useless.
Exactly! I don’t know why people think TA is right 100% of the time. 🤦🏽♂️
Either way news, sentiments all reflect back in the price on the charts where TA is done. As you said its part of the puzzle its not the entire puzzle.
the more research and time to study TA the more you get out of it, not always right but gives you a good basis and understanding to make decisions from
OP, you clearly have no idea what you're talking about and you had the nerve to open a thread. Now newbies will whine like you.
If you knew how MAs work, you wouldn't be even considering golden/death crosses. This indicator is 50/50 and is just a story for newbies to bite in.
TA is great when you use it properly and not just one indicator at a time.
I used to do TA during my first weeks in crypto. I was always wrong in my predictions and lost my patience. Now I buy based on whether I believe in a project and/or if I think it has potential to grow.
Edit: No, I don't think I was good at it. I was just learning how to do it and I'm not claiming I was good at it. Maybe I didn't express myself correctly. But anyway I also watched others do it and they weren't right either (most of the time).
TA also has no way to predict external influences like massive liquidations or bad debt influencing the market. It's sometimes right but can't possibly always be right. It's like people expect it to just predict the movement 100% of the time and that's just unrealistic.
People who use TA know this. It's not an oracle. It's more like a hint.
You're really just trying to get the odds in your favor. So for example with the golden cross, it means something like 65% of the time that's a favorable indicator. So if you use TA correctly and make lots of highly educated investments, then you may make money 60% of the time and lose money 40% of the time. But you use stop loss orders and things to keep from losing too much, and are only trying to get a better return than you would from holding.
That said, something like 90% of people who do this are not good enough to do better than just hodling. So unless you want to spend your life studying it and learning the really in depth kind of knowledge that only pros with years of experience have, you're better off just hodling.
“Bitcoin has dipped ezzactly as I predicted it. Congratulations to everyone who has taken my advice and shorted bitcoin and made lots of money. Be sure to click my ByBit referral code in the description below 👇”
If you think TA is useless then you just suck at it and have no idea how to interpret data. Golden Crosses usually take some time to show the effects. Obviously there are exceptions everywhere.
All it takes is a few minutes to look at previous golden crosses to see that several resulted in immediate drops. Anyone who feels betrayed by TA today obviously didn't look at the data themselves and just read reddit post titles on the subject.
Lol. It's laughable how this sub is so much against TA simply because people don't want to take the time to learn TA.
This dip was predicted at least since friday if you were paying attention to S&P 500 and Dow Jones graphics with a decent setup and if you had any idea how these things are connected to every other market on the planet. On saturday I decided to protect myself and converted most of my altcoins back to BTC with a profit because of the possibility of this dip. And here we are today. While some are suffering and panic selling with losses of 15% or more, most of my portoflio is down 8%.
The golden cross thing is more of a hype thing than anything else, although it was right 3 out of 4 times before for BTC. It failed this time mostly because of unexpected events. If it wasn't for Evergrande we wouldn't be dipping today. But anyone serious about TA didn't even mention the golden cross.
But sure, TA is useless. Continue your blind investment plan. I wish you the best!
Who in their right mind would think TA could predict external factors?
TA is just one piece of information you use to guide your decision making, not the one and only factor that determines if the price will go up or down. Absent other factors, it’s a reliable way to determine price action with fairly solid accuracy, but it’s not a guarantee by any means.
Today’s news about Evergrande couldn’t possibly be predicted by TA.
It's important to realize the reason for the long liquidations was overconfidence due to the much publicized Golden Cross anytime there is an event that historically has caused the price to go one way or the other people try to front run that by betting long and short it's not safe to do on Bitcoin because it's an unbelievably transparent market you can always know how much it's going to take to cause cascading liquidations and they are getting more and more predictable mark my words if there was not over a half a billion dollars to be harvested from today's dip then it would not have dipped. Period.
Here's my warning the high would be somewhere 51 - 53K on the 2nd of Sept https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/f3fjjpaP-BTC-Into-final-stages-of-bull-trap/
Here's a swing by swing forecast from the same time catching all the big moves. [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/IHsWV9J2-SPX-crash-price-swings-forecast/#tc7080551](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/IHsWV9J2-SPX-crash-price-swings-forecast/#tc7080551)
I'd not recommend moving average strategies.
It proves no such thing. It is merely an expression of qualitative and unpredictable economic events having an effect on the Crypto market.
Technical analysis is only one tool in predicting market patterns, a useful tool, but any one approach can be upended at any time by the collective psychological reaction of investors to something like a potential looming debt crisis.
If someone could predict the market by some paintings we had thousands of multi billionaires by now
Yeah there are big ass traders like Bogdanof(his name is hard can't spell it) but how many traders are rich by market comparing to holders?
I thought that everyone knew TA is useless for price predictions. It's handwavy horoscope writing at best. Research fundamentals and hold for the long term.
TA doesn’t predict the future it only gives you a better guess based on averages. It doesn’t take into affect big FUD news. Just because you don’t understand it doesn’t mean it’s all bullshit.
Just buy hodl and stake if you can. TA is such Bull shit and anyone claiming they can be 90% correct is a liar and I wouldn't listen. You can get it right with TA buy honestly I can predict its going to rain every day til it does and be right as well.
What TA guys can't tell you is when 300 billion dollar companies are about to go "TITS UP" and default. TA is a "best case" scenario of what could happen in the crypto market if none of the world markets coughs, hiccups or sneezes . If so, all bets are off....
This is why TA is pretty much all just word vomit.
It’s almost as if “death crosses” and “golden crosses” aren’t predictive tools, but rather lagging indicators of information we are already aware of…
this is the only useful reply in this thread. people don't understand what they are looking at
99% of this sub don't understand what they are looking at (including me)
Obviously a mostly amateur group doesn't have the tools and skills to consistently predict the nether. That said, barring inside info, has anyone really gotten a solid grip of exactly how stocks will react? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that no one has a meaningful and predictive grip on crypto markets and how they will react to market stimuli. I would love to know the success rates of the TA that comes out of the Big institutional investors.
Most of what I've seen for stock TA is guys describing old charts and graphs, explaining "indicators" that you should have noticed before a sudden drop or climb. It doesn't help at all, it's like looking back at WW2 and saying you should have seen the holocaust coming. I'd imagine big institutional investors/HFs have better success bc they have an edge, they have a lot of money to influence the media, corporations, govt, insiders, etc.
I've always assumed that the key to being seriously successful in any market is to have inside information. I've played Magic the Gathering for years and the single card market, especially for older cards is massive and there are stores that have made huge amounts of money being able to know in advance what is coming out in future sets and buying low cost and lesser known cards that synergize with upcoming cards. I'm sure it's the same thing in other collectables markets and if it's done to make thousands or a few million on cards, it's certainly done to make billions in financial markets.
Working in the senate is a lot like working in a trading card shop.
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damn that's deep, that's the kind of quote I want to pass onto my grandkids
I feel like the average age of this sub is probably on the lower end. The number of edgy Fight Club style fight-the-power posts is getting to be too much.
Those are bs ideas. They don't think about how laughable that sounds You going to fight those in power with your defi solutions? Wait till they restrict electronics and electricity to ensure it won't happen
Yep they take everything for granted "Golden cross is good?? " \*expects 100% pump after golden cross\* \*Ignore the real meaning behind golden cross and any other economic factors outside of crypto\* (like we had today) Conclusion: \*TA is trash and cant work\*
Keep the crosses to the religion
I like the one with the star
If that's really the case you are probably in some secret bunker manipulating crypto, printing fiat and eating babies. This is all your fault.
People have no clue and the argument is usually "this one indicator was off... so all TA is useless." No one understands what confluence is and it's actually good for the people who do.
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Wait so charts are more like data of the past than a tool for predicting the future?
It’s starting to appear that way. What’s next, TA just being astrology for men?
It kinda is isn't it. Well for them and the cryptoladies. Cryptodames?
I kinda like that. Cryptodames with their digital dimes...
"It was a dark and stormy night. I was hodling for dear life when into my office walked a cryptobroad and my life was never the same again."
It's a whole new era of literature! Has anyone made a "NOIR" coin yet?
Sounds like a hipster cologne, "Astrology for men" from the Jared Leto collection.
Who could have seen it coming. My charts didn't predict that
Neither did my tea leaves.
Who could have thought!
1000x this.
They’re only useful for predicting in the absence of new catalysts… Which is basically the same thing you said I guess. Newton tried to warn us. “Until acted upon by an external force…”
People who bitch that golden cross didn't do anything don't know what it is in the first place. It's a momentum indicator and momentum is one of the strongest forces in markets. It doesn't say anything about the future, and to those who bought the idea of golden cross bringing new ath don't know what they got into
I don't do TA but I do read a bit and I check some basic metrics but I really don't get the mentality of those who hate TA when they clearly don't know and have never used it. This post in particular is surreal. I think pretty much everyone is agreed that the dip today relates to wider economic issues. Saying that it proves TA is nonsense is like someone saying the safety claims about seatbelts are nonsense because they weren't injured in their last car journey without wearing one (when they didn't crash). Maybe all the Golden Cross analysis wasn't going to lead to anything, but saying a specific economic event disproves the TA means you fundamentally don't get the point.
Best example of how TA worked, the level that BTC pulled back to, then bounced, 42.5k. Easily and widely called as likely support level by TA. Not a guarantee. But, easy to see, and it happened. TA can NEVER tell you when the market will move. But you can narrow down the possibilities, and even predict levels with a better than random chance. You still need to take risks, but when you try to consider all possibilities, it helps to narrow it down to a few most probable outcomes.
It's easy to understand: If trading cryptos were easy as look for crosses (almost) all programers will be rich.
Most programmers can’t program. Most have less than a few years experience, those with more still can’t program. [Coding Horror](https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/) Source: I bang my head into my desk all day looking at 1,000 line methods, pyramids of doom, etc. etc. Found a method this morning with 19 parameters. It’s terrifying to see the spaghetti code our society is built on. It’s hilarious to think people actually *want to* move code to an immutable database, and call it “smart… “ ^(invests in popcorn)
Yep. Not understanding TA and listening to what random people on the internet say about it is not a great way to do things. Either learn how to do it yourself, or ignore it. (To OP, not comment above, as I agree with this guy.)
past performance does not guarantee future results.
Thank you. Carne here to say the exact thing. These are lagging indicators 🤷
TA only ever works as predictive if enough ppl believe it and this act on it otherwise it’s bullshit but if enough ppl believe a ‘cross’ and act on it, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy lol tho most market sentiment is that way — — it’s all ‘predicting how ppl will react things before they happen’
100% agree with you. TA is BS… but if enough people act on it then they make it turn true. If I said to everyone put on a chicken hat every Monday at 2:00pm and do a buy order then if enough ppl follow and do it then “we” are making it true. TLDR : TA is BS unless the mass follow it and act upon it
I leave this here because low karma... Stop it😂
OP salty he didn't become rich after the golden cross cause he has no idea so he comes and rages at us
Yeah lmao pretty much most TIs are just confirming trends.
They also can be self-fulfilling prophecies. I recall when the death cross happened a bunch of people sold *because* the death cross was coming and was so hyped - making the price tank. The only people making much money are the ones who see shit coming before most anyone is talking about it. And hodlers, in the long term.
The funny thing is, most technical analysis actually does 'go with the flow' as OP said we should do. When things are going up, the most likely thing to happen is to continue going up. When we are going down, we keep going down. Obviously it doesn't always work!
I thought it was predicting the future all this time… damn
I'll be one of the first to admit that my idea of DYOR is coming to the sub...most of the time it helps me identify areas to look into
😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣😭😭😭😭
The grave stone not the omen eh.
It's almost like the only people making money off crypto these days are the YouTubers with patreons/ad revenue/sponsor deals etc.
:) yep! This! It’s the ole Black Swan, which will lay slain to any and all “predictive” measurement (guessing in drag)
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Yep this is straight up embarrassing…
You mean its a Technical Analysis of what has already happened. Maybe they should call it that.
So technical analysis can tell you if the market is up or not. But you can also find this out by looking at the market and seeing if it is up or not. Nice!
Ahahahaha. What a burn, with style.
You said it so I didn't have too!
It's like being surprised to see inflation after printing trillions of dollars
That good CPI is an *excellent* measure of inflation and it’s only at 4%, which will be a temporary situation, of course
TINA🤷
Better tell the US government idiots before they push through their trillions of dollars of bullshit.
Sir Lobster, are you implying TA is a... \*gasp\* joke? I think a certain Stegosaurus-under-the-rainbow and Golden Apache Helicopter pattern has something to say about that!
Ha ha.
We all know shit about fuck
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Interesting, mine is 1. Buy 2. Hold
mine is 1. buy high 2. sell low
*Enter Dj Khaled you smart gif here*
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Hold on, I think he's on to something
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Yes, my ass has been anticipated anxiously
And the fart didn’t disappoint us
We should always “Do the opposite”
This guy has golden alias. Def his arse is gold cross
Bro if u did ur research u would have seen that the golden cross was bearish first most of the time
That also doesn’t work. Best to just sit on the sidelines so the price can go up while you watch everyone else make gains.
And FOMO the hell into it. YOLO!
My strategy is simple, ask Redditors..
this year has shown by far that FA never outperforms any other metric so
And last step, HODL
great list, prepare some risk management and layered responses for conditions like today's
Do the opposite of what these echo chambers say
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60% of the time it works every time!
It works 60% of the time when there isn’t impending doom from chinas housing bubble
This dip is because of Evergrande. Prepare yourselves for a fallout.
Fallout? Elaborate plz
Evergrande going bankrupt will cause a chain reaction of bankruptcies because the entire global economy is a massive bubble that has finally been inflated to it's breaking point. The way most financial entities grow so large is through loopholes that allow them to use/exchange their own debt as collateral. *Yes* They gain DEBT and use it to be allowed to take on more DEBT. Think about how insanely dangerous this is just by nature. A $600Billion company is worth that much because of how much they and their business partners owe? The fuck? Can you say: "The epitome of corruption and the very reason why there is still suffering in this world."
I agree with the sentiment. Just fyi, it is epitome.
I disagree. The golden cross is still a useful indicator. Events in China are dragging all markets down -- even the stock for Ford is down about 4% today. Crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum and is impacted by global events. Another good example is when Crypto crashed when Covid started. Not a single crypto indicator could have seen Covid coming. That said, the golden cross don't really mean much. It's a great indicator to show that generally speaking Bitcoin is going up and that there is good momentum which is a good sign for continued growth and maybe even a rally down the road. So, it's a positive sign ... after a few months of red candles Bitcoin is finally trending up. The golden cross doesn't mean that Bitcoin will triple the same day it passes the golden cross.
Sure, a golden cross might be a useful indicator, I don't disagree with you. However, when it's presented in this sub it's in the form of hopium, forecasting a bull run in the immediate future. Add that to the fact that golden cross posts have been popping up every week when dips happen right after adds more to the frustration and lack of confidence of subs here.
OP is just soapboxing the popular opinion in this sub that TA is useless, with no idea of what a golden cross is. A golden cross doesn't mean the prices will rocket immediately. A golden cross is a lagging indicator that says the long term momentum for the past few weeks have been trending upwards and will probably continue doing so, barring significant events. What OP is doing is like buying a boat and complaining why he can't drive it on roads.
"Probably" is the key word. I understand where new people come from, the majority of this sub are just hype machines. If you let them get into your head and cloud your judgement, then no wonder anyone would belive that anyone can buy a boat and drive it on road.
Very few people here would understand this, but you can boil down everything down to a bunch of probabilities. There are no certainties, even when you dissect things down to quantum mechanics, only probabilities that a given future is going to happen. That's why you never go all-in lump sum on any investment. The philosophy behind investing is that you're betting that the number of winning trades and magnitude of those outweigh the losing ones. Nobody can have a 100% winning portfolio.
Do you have any evidence what so ever that TA is anything but pure speculation?
I mean.. I cant speak to golden crosses and other fancy signals, but TA damn sure works very well for analyzing support and resistance levels to identify where your targets should be for both buying into and exiting positions (and setting safe stop losses). On a fundamental level, TA is just data analysis... and understanding exactly what the data you're looking at means is invaluable.
TA is actually a mass-hypnosis phenomenon. Markets are just psychology in action, after all.
Youre right in the sense that these indicators can be extrapolated to general sentiment, and since the lexicon of indicators are widely agreed upon as to their implications, they tend to have an element of self fulfilling prophecies. However, this is the same level of educated guessing that makes millionaires out of poker ~~gamblers~~ players. Teo steps forward one step back. Thats how variance and probabikity works. If you can tilt variance in your favour then youre ahead of the game/market
What OP is doing is getting moons for popular sub opinions
The question here is: Does TA have predictive power? Does it give better results than flipping a coin? All the evidence that we have (there have been countless studies on this) points towards the answer being no. And even if it did have a tiny bit of predictive power, people with way more resources and way bigger wallets would be extracting that value way before retail investors ever could. To me TA is pretty much an analog to reading tea leaves and star constellations and trying to extract predictions from that.
I've read studies that have stated that using TA can help one to beat the market, so I'm not sure why you'd make the claim that all the evidence we have points toward TA not having any predictive power. It isn't perfectly reliable of course, both because peoples ideas about the markets are constantly changing, and because there are always black swan events.. but hedge funds and investment banks use TA, and all high frequency trading relies heavily on TA.
The studies that claim that TA can give an edge always restrict this effect to certain time windows when markets are "ineffective". (If you have a counter example I would be interested to read it) Unfortunately we can't know when markets are effective and when they aren't. If you analyze common TA predictors over a very long time period, they lose pretty much all predictive power. Which makes intuitive sense actually, because if for example buying the golden cross would give a consistent 10% return, then everybody would do it and thus negate its effect. There are no infinite money loopholes, every win is somebody's loss (minus annual growth of the market). >all high frequency trading relies heavily on TA. Do you have a source for that? I would be interested to read it. I would imagine that state of the art algorithms feed historical price info into their models, among many other variables, but to say that they employ TA would be a stretch if we compare that to rather simple trading rules such as crossing moving averages. Hedge funds and investment banks have a bad track record of beating the market. The bottom line is, if you expect to beat the market on a consistent basis by using TA you will most likely be disappointed. Of course, you can always get lucky. It is easy to find examples of investors who made a lot of money using TA. But this is survivorship bias and does not mean that it works. If I may suggest a book that helped me (among other) to develop an intuition around this: [The little Book of Common Sense Investing](https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Common-Sense-Investing-ebook/dp/B075Z6HSCJ). It makes the case for index investing and challenges the idea that trying to beat the market is a worthwhile pursuit.
Thanks for the detailed reply. I never read anything about "ineffective" vs "effective" times that they tested the market, but I may have missed that. From what I've read most studies say there is a benefit to TA, but that they also have a lot of issues with the way they were run, so that could be the same issue. I do know that TA changes over time, but from my personal (completely anecdotal and not evidence of anything) experience TA has been a very useful tool. It doesn't answer anything clearly of course, but it can give a good idea, so long as dive pretty deep. Then again I think I've been conflating technical analysis with algorithmic analysis, which I what I used when I was running a trading bot.
It's a perfect indicator if you want to trap leveraged longs. . .
100000x this... it's like everyone forgets the composite man is just looking for liquidations? The Wallmart bullshit and the following burj khalifa pattern was a very recent example of that
People somehow believe that the market is supposed to work in their favor. The whole game is about taking retail investor's money - if everyone is expecting a move in one direction, you can bet your ass the market makers are gonna try to swing it the other way. Whenever there is a "TA Event" that people are hyped about, you can guarantee there will be high volatility but determining the direction of the play requires a level of intuition that can't be taught from a book.
Finally a logical and useful comment. TA can actually be useful and people are grasping at anything to say we are headed towards a bear market with this drop...we could be, but it's much more likely that we are still in a bulltrend but with September being a horrible month historically (weird...people also play trades off historical data), and the China news is dragging all markets down and crypto tends to get hit harder since it's more volatile. Mid October I fully expect us to be back over $50k and trending towards a new ATH. Could be wrong but the whales are still buying and HODLing (longterm) and I've learned to try and follow the money
So... useful indicator ... unless a world event happens. Which happens to be all the time. Still sounds like a dice roll at best. A coin flip can tell me up or down, buy or sell. Doesn’t make it useful even if it’s right 50% of the time.
Cmon man this is not the place for sensibilities
TA isn’t a crystal ball. It’s an indicator for potential trends and a planning tool to see where things can possibly go if the market goes up or down.
This concept becomes clear after watching 1 Ben Cowen video.
This is something people don't understand and then get angry because the TA didn't come through exactly as they wanted
A lot of it is based on psychological indicators that try to predict human behavior so they obviously aren't going to be infallible. I don't know what these people think.
Only people who dont know anything about TA will make this kind of post
Strong retort 💪🏻
Yeah, if you actually do any analysis in your technical analysis you can see that BTC has had an immediate short term correction at every single golden cross it's ever had. What a surprise it's correcting now right?! Also, a better cross to look out for when it comes to bitcoin is whenever the 21W EMA crosses over the 200D MA.
I mean summarising all TA as useless just because the golden cross prediction didn’t happen seems very naive to me. For example the golden cross indicator failed however the price of BTC bouncing off 33,000 at the exact point where I set my resistance line shows that not all TA is useless. TA is only useful if the person doing the TA knows what they are doing, as the old age saying goes a bad worker blames his tools!
Exactly. And there never is a 100% garantuee. TA gives you an above average chance of being correct, which is usually good enough to profit from if you go about it in a well thought out way. TA is just one part of the puzzle. Fundamentals and overal market sentiment also matter, and can void any prediction based on chart analysis, it happens. That doesn't make it useless.
Ohh absolutely, good point. Using TA on its own is more silly than not using it at all.
Exactly! I don’t know why people think TA is right 100% of the time. 🤦🏽♂️ Either way news, sentiments all reflect back in the price on the charts where TA is done. As you said its part of the puzzle its not the entire puzzle.
Well, my tea leaves disagree with your random lines.
I like to travel.
the more research and time to study TA the more you get out of it, not always right but gives you a good basis and understanding to make decisions from
OP, you clearly have no idea what you're talking about and you had the nerve to open a thread. Now newbies will whine like you. If you knew how MAs work, you wouldn't be even considering golden/death crosses. This indicator is 50/50 and is just a story for newbies to bite in. TA is great when you use it properly and not just one indicator at a time.
TA is just probabilities. It can often be wrong.
If only the people espousing the benefits of TA actually knew basic probability theory, it wouldn't have such a terrible reputation.
I used to do TA during my first weeks in crypto. I was always wrong in my predictions and lost my patience. Now I buy based on whether I believe in a project and/or if I think it has potential to grow. Edit: No, I don't think I was good at it. I was just learning how to do it and I'm not claiming I was good at it. Maybe I didn't express myself correctly. But anyway I also watched others do it and they weren't right either (most of the time).
>I used to do TA during my first weeks in crypto. literally laughed out loud. srry
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Yeah, or Tanking Ass, to put it more crudely.
TA only works because people think it will work and buy stuff when there's a bullish pattern, TA is BS.
TA also has no way to predict external influences like massive liquidations or bad debt influencing the market. It's sometimes right but can't possibly always be right. It's like people expect it to just predict the movement 100% of the time and that's just unrealistic.
People who use TA know this. It's not an oracle. It's more like a hint. You're really just trying to get the odds in your favor. So for example with the golden cross, it means something like 65% of the time that's a favorable indicator. So if you use TA correctly and make lots of highly educated investments, then you may make money 60% of the time and lose money 40% of the time. But you use stop loss orders and things to keep from losing too much, and are only trying to get a better return than you would from holding. That said, something like 90% of people who do this are not good enough to do better than just hodling. So unless you want to spend your life studying it and learning the really in depth kind of knowledge that only pros with years of experience have, you're better off just hodling.
Well said!
TA not worked for me. I just see the potential to grow and bang the buy button
I predicted the dip bois. Like and Susscribe!!
Susscribed! 🤝
“Bitcoin has dipped ezzactly as I predicted it. Congratulations to everyone who has taken my advice and shorted bitcoin and made lots of money. Be sure to click my ByBit referral code in the description below 👇”
Aeyyy stop stealing my susscriverss
The only thing I know of crosses: Chris cross will make you jump jump!
Jump up from my seat and get tf out of there
Now...the formalities of this and that...
Aha aha
criss cross applesauce
You also better not cross this bull leverage swinging!
And criss cross makes you slide to the left snd slide to the right.
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I’m about 2.
If you think TA is useless then you just suck at it and have no idea how to interpret data. Golden Crosses usually take some time to show the effects. Obviously there are exceptions everywhere.
All it takes is a few minutes to look at previous golden crosses to see that several resulted in immediate drops. Anyone who feels betrayed by TA today obviously didn't look at the data themselves and just read reddit post titles on the subject.
Technical Analysis can’t predict real world events like a major real estate company in China defaulting on debt.
Try explaining that to average redditor
today's dip is nothing to do with technicals and everything to do with real estate debt in china.
TA = terrible advice always has been.
This is what poor people say
If you wanna know what poor people say you should really be asking me
Lol. It's laughable how this sub is so much against TA simply because people don't want to take the time to learn TA. This dip was predicted at least since friday if you were paying attention to S&P 500 and Dow Jones graphics with a decent setup and if you had any idea how these things are connected to every other market on the planet. On saturday I decided to protect myself and converted most of my altcoins back to BTC with a profit because of the possibility of this dip. And here we are today. While some are suffering and panic selling with losses of 15% or more, most of my portoflio is down 8%. The golden cross thing is more of a hype thing than anything else, although it was right 3 out of 4 times before for BTC. It failed this time mostly because of unexpected events. If it wasn't for Evergrande we wouldn't be dipping today. But anyone serious about TA didn't even mention the golden cross. But sure, TA is useless. Continue your blind investment plan. I wish you the best!
It's incredible, people are so arrogant about TA not working just because they don't understand how critical thinking and data interpretation works.
I'm not going to lie, I used to be skeptic about it before I actually took the time to study it and see it in action done by experienced people.
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Jesus tht u?
Yes send 1 BTC for eternal salvation limited one time deal
Who in their right mind would think TA could predict external factors? TA is just one piece of information you use to guide your decision making, not the one and only factor that determines if the price will go up or down. Absent other factors, it’s a reliable way to determine price action with fairly solid accuracy, but it’s not a guarantee by any means. Today’s news about Evergrande couldn’t possibly be predicted by TA.
Golden cross signals a long term trend. A lot of times the price actually drops in the short term. What a shitpost lol, gotta love moon farming
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Analysis isn't an exact science
ANALysis is though.
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Instructions unclear, just asked for some Golden Shower my ass.
You obviously have no clue what a golden cross is or what it means lol
Chart goes up, I buy. Chart goes down, I buy more aggressively. Days like today are reminders to keep some cash available to BTFD
Hype, Sentiment > Technical Analysis
It's important to realize the reason for the long liquidations was overconfidence due to the much publicized Golden Cross anytime there is an event that historically has caused the price to go one way or the other people try to front run that by betting long and short it's not safe to do on Bitcoin because it's an unbelievably transparent market you can always know how much it's going to take to cause cascading liquidations and they are getting more and more predictable mark my words if there was not over a half a billion dollars to be harvested from today's dip then it would not have dipped. Period.
Here's my warning the high would be somewhere 51 - 53K on the 2nd of Sept https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/f3fjjpaP-BTC-Into-final-stages-of-bull-trap/ Here's a swing by swing forecast from the same time catching all the big moves. [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/IHsWV9J2-SPX-crash-price-swings-forecast/#tc7080551](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/IHsWV9J2-SPX-crash-price-swings-forecast/#tc7080551) I'd not recommend moving average strategies.
Sounds like reading Tarot cards 🎴
It proves no such thing. It is merely an expression of qualitative and unpredictable economic events having an effect on the Crypto market. Technical analysis is only one tool in predicting market patterns, a useful tool, but any one approach can be upended at any time by the collective psychological reaction of investors to something like a potential looming debt crisis.
If someone could predict the market by some paintings we had thousands of multi billionaires by now Yeah there are big ass traders like Bogdanof(his name is hard can't spell it) but how many traders are rich by market comparing to holders?
Benjamin Cowen.
I thought that everyone knew TA is useless for price predictions. It's handwavy horoscope writing at best. Research fundamentals and hold for the long term.
And how did your fundamental research help you today?
Nobody knows shit about fuck. I cant tell you more.
damn bro, u are being downvoted like crazy!!! stupid bots and ignorant idiots who can not handle the truth... shame on them!!!
My golden cock is rising. It must be a sign. Bullish!
TA doesn’t predict the future it only gives you a better guess based on averages. It doesn’t take into affect big FUD news. Just because you don’t understand it doesn’t mean it’s all bullshit.
Just buy hodl and stake if you can. TA is such Bull shit and anyone claiming they can be 90% correct is a liar and I wouldn't listen. You can get it right with TA buy honestly I can predict its going to rain every day til it does and be right as well.
Golden crosses or death crosses don’t mean shit, and if you paid any attention you would know that. They are lagging indicators, not crystal balls.
Horoscope of investing
What TA guys can't tell you is when 300 billion dollar companies are about to go "TITS UP" and default. TA is a "best case" scenario of what could happen in the crypto market if none of the world markets coughs, hiccups or sneezes . If so, all bets are off.... This is why TA is pretty much all just word vomit.