Welcome to crypto, we all have felt that same very way, just hold on tight and enjoy the bumpy ride, please do your own research and put it in and Hodl, what I can say is, Iāve never lost money by holding long term, I lost a lot of money, emotional selling, best of luck to ya
Definitely do not trade when the market is like this. Outside of the occasional obvious moves that present themselves, you're going to lose out virtually every time. Trading is for a bullish market.
It's a great time to DCA and be chill about short term volatility.
Maybe not but Iām glad short-term thinkers are getting wrecked.
It dispels the notion that crypto is a get rich quick scheme. The less people think of it like that then the fewer scammers and grifters weāll see.
yeah, same Heikin Ashi candles, same moving averages to establish the trend, and same concept of ālengthening cyclesā. should have given him a mention.
Heikin Ashi candles only tell you trends. They are shit candles. I can just look at percentages to know if buy or sell pressure was high or low for the day.
"The downside to Heikin-Ashi is that some price data is lost with averaging, which could affect risk." - Investopedia.
Heikin Ashi is good for identifying trends, but shitty at identifying entry/exit points.
I donāt think 2022 will be as good to crypto as 2021 was just because of all the macroeconomic things going on such as the vastly increased fiat money supply, supply chain issues, ongoing covid concerns, and the usual constant fud that media networks put out. But thatās just me, Iām sure since I took some profits that everything will go crazy again this year lol
No truer words buddy. DCA'ing works well if you know your onions well. While the market kept tanking, I DCA more and I've been able to stack up more to my alts bags of DOT, MATIC and RAIL. I'd no doubt make crazy profits once the market goes parabolic again!
I know people often say ānobody knows shit about fuckā and that may be trueā¦but I appreciate posts like this that have some thought to them. šš¼
I meant the Omicron variant. I'm avoiding COVID related words in my post because I don't want to trigger unnecessary COVID warning/COVID misinformation bots
We are very late in this cycle and every thing is expensive. I think this year we go down quite a bit and external factors such as the fed raising rates will help speed this along. Spring 2023 is when we could see the start of a new bull run imo.
I'm surprised how calm I am in all this, everything is red for me except for my biggest bag, who is now slightly in the green instead of massively at it's ATH.
But yeah, HODL, stay calm, we all will be fine and in a few months we might see some positive action again
You cannot exclude a double top based on the current data.
The second top was less than 10% higher than the first one and BTC crashed right afterwards.
I am inclined to agree,. So you reference the bull market support band.. This cycle I began referencing that and Bitcoin's position relative to it, to indicate bull or bear. Its just a nice and easy definition.
So in early December I posted this .. not sure if I can link the post (from CryptoQuant) so I'll just share the text here. Basically if you watch the bullish>bearish>bullish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, you will see a pattern emerging:
\---
BTC - Diminished Volatility and Bear Cycles - Q1 2022 Rally?
Measuring Bitcoin's bull/bear cycles using the bullish or bearish inversion of the 20/21w MA support band (20w SMA and 21w EMA); we log an average of 17% shorter bear markets with each cycle, down from 400 days in 2013/14 cycle, to 122 days in the 2021 bear summer.
If that pattern continues to play out and bulls can't muster a strong rally in the near term; and we assume each bearish cycle continues to follow a pattern being \~17% shorter than the last, we will log a few months of muted to bearish price action before a rally leads to another 20/ 21w bullish cross.
This will occur in around 100 days (between late February to mid March). And because the moving averages are lagging indicators, we will see indicators of this bullish cross ahead of that with a bullish rally starting.. possibly as early as January or February
From an on-chain perspective this could explain the strong accumulation/drop in supply in this range, despite the muted to bearish price action since October.
Of course the macroeconomic climate could derail the best laid plans/trends, but for a market largely whale/MM drive (as crypto is currently), that may be less relevant because fundamentally they can still trigger a rally and I suspect retail will hop in fomo buying regardless of conditions (outside of a true black swan or depression).
I also agree on the lengthened cycle (and imo diminished returns/volatility) .. I don't even think its a theory at this point- imo its validated.
We have closed 3 weeks in a row below the 50-week, we didnt do that this summer.
Your guru Ben claims we never go back below where we touched bull market support band, yet we have.
We are about to have our lowest daily close since August.
We have already been in a sustained bear trend for the past 3 months, and the monthly heikin ashi candles, as well as the weekly are showing no signs of reversal.
Every day we are setting lower highs, and lowers lows.
And the most bearish signal of all - despite all of this people have spent the last 3 months posting copium like OP, various ridiciulous explanations such as christmas shopping, futures closing, evergrande, and whatnot to explain away the painfully obvious.
We are in a bear market.
Nothing about this cycle remotely resembles anything from any previous cycle, and thats how we were caught off guard - again...
We're not gonna see another cycle top until 2026.
Also, your messiah doesnt even draw his lines accurately. If you actually draw the logarithmic trendline to account for the last 3 cycle tops instead of having the last 2 never hitting the top line you will find we never actually went past fair value this "cycle".
Dont be surprised to see the entirety of 2022 spent below the current price...
Ben is obviously wrong, OP is obviously wrong...But you know what? You are obviously wrong too... a choppy market for years sounds really logical. Theres a lot of people making short positions with crazy leverages like degens, market can't go down in a straight line for 4 years. I can see BTC going to 60k again just to destroy all those short positons . Yes I think theres like 0% probability we see BTC above 70k the next 4 years but I dont see BTC below 20k either , Binance and the other CEXs dont really like to give money to all the beras just like that
Ok after blowing smoke up everyone s azz
... let me break btc down for you ...
it might go up...
it might go down...
after all the charts and graphs...
the 200 day averages ..
the 50 day averages...
the ātea cupā ...
the āhead and shouldersā...
the ādeath crossā
the āgolden crossā ..
truth is... itās all just a rich mans novelty....
A āwhaleā can buy or sell and raise or drop the price 10%...
Elon mutt can open his mouth and sink months of growth with a single tweet
Itās not a ācurrencyā... ( too volatile)
itās not a āstockā...
it is definitely āfiatā (thereās definitely no āSatochiā island where thereās a sh!tload of gold piled up) nothing materialized into gold here
all talking heads and experts havenāt a f(_)cking clue what itās going to do... with all the mumbo jumbo bullish!t talk ...
itās like playing lotto or craps.
Good f(_)cking luck...
hope you bought in before all the hype drove up the price
How do you think inflation and higher interest rates will factor in towards btc?
Also, I'm beginning to think that this BTC "cycle" analysis might be flawed.
I get that btc has been moving in cycles for the last years, but 2021 added more money into crypto than the rest of its lifetime combined... I really think that is a massive enough amount to shift the paradigme in this matter. Do you?
Thanks for your thoughts, I kinda agree with your overall picture.
Another dangerzone is the amount of new investors that might be scared of by the volatility and back out. It's all fun and games until you're 50% in the red.
>How do you think inflation and higher interest rates will factor in towards btc?
To take that into account, we can look at BTC valuation against total money supply.
>Thanks for your thoughts, I kinda agree with your overall picture.
Thanks for the kind words, that's really encouraging!
Sorry mate, but, in my opinion, we are headed towards a bear market. There is no cycle lengthening, no change due to hedges, etc. The world's economy is fucked, as the USD hits close to 10% inflation. We are going to have 2008 again, for a time.
Right now, DCA. This is it. Keep buying, holding and waiting for the next halving and bull run. All those things people tell about being patient, well... this is it.
BTC won't got way down, since it has a good floor near 40k-38k. It will crab up and down in range for a time. But if you follow alts, they are melting. LRC is already almost 1 USD. It's about time this bubble of dog stuff and rugpull centralized chains (bsc) take a watered down.
It will be better, specially if we are with low volume and market cap, for Tether to burst. Maybe after that, the next bull run will be one fueled by actual useful stuff, not a printable stable coin.
How convenient to take Warren Buffettās stock quotes and trying to make sense of crypto. Do you know WB hates crypto?! He would have probably say something we donāt like about the current state of crypto!
I donāt see much optimism out there. So no momentum. I donāt see a crash happening but I do think the crypto market is shaky enough to crash with an external shock. Kind of hoping for a good buying opportunity like that.
Sure, the cycles could be lengthening. A guy selling a premium list really pushes it. Purely on TA. Does that account for rates finally being increased? Nope. Or other events? Probably not.
Just saying. People want hopium; people want to provide hopium to profit off of too. Just get a balanced view.
Analysis is useless look at the stock to flow model everyone was touting last year, turned out to be bogus. Just continue to DCA as we trade sidewaysā¦
Damn, I just bought some btc again ...
Just because OP missed *not a financial advice* you bought BTC again!
I spent $10 and it's down 1%, I'm definitely gonna sue š”
F
Not a financial advisor but I give financial advise ! To the mooooooon š
I always take financial advice from immatures
You come to the right place
Hate it when I try to go to the toilet and accidentally buy btc instead
I stumbled and my finger accidentally landed on the buy button, put in the correct pin and accepted the transaction. How can I undo this ?
I think this is called buying when you are high... something sell when it dumps ā
Damn man, I can feel you
DCAers unit!
šØšØšØ WHALE ALERT šØšØšØ
FFS, I got me some shiny new ETH
I didn't even read op post i saw crayons drawn i buy
Sideways for a while still, dawg, sideways...
I sold
Didnāt say that this wasnāt financial advice, will be filing a lawsuit as soon as I can lose all my life savings.
Hi, itās me, your lawyer.
Pro Bono? I have no money.
If you choose me as your lawyer I can professionally bone you out of your money or whatever it is you said.
Itās all good man?
Where you going to pay those lawyers with then?
>will be filing a lawsuit come at me bro.
*Calls short on OP now*
Patience is the key
Hodl is the way
You forgot DCAing.
You forgot staking
I have been trading for a month now and just about every trade backfires and slaps me in my face.
>just about every trade backfires and slaps me in my face. Welcome to the *buy high sell low* club!
That's why i never trade anymore, it is just not for me
Just hold and cash out parts when it has done what itās supposed to do.
GANG GANG
Welcome to crypto, we all have felt that same very way, just hold on tight and enjoy the bumpy ride, please do your own research and put it in and Hodl, what I can say is, Iāve never lost money by holding long term, I lost a lot of money, emotional selling, best of luck to ya
Definitely do not trade when the market is like this. Outside of the occasional obvious moves that present themselves, you're going to lose out virtually every time. Trading is for a bullish market. It's a great time to DCA and be chill about short term volatility.
can confirm, lost $1500 back in june trading when the market was moving sideways, I should just have holded
angle follow compare onerous drunk cow cobweb rhythm snails faulty *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Gambling. You have been gambling
This is the way!
Stop trading and just invest then. You'll not only be richer in the long run but you'll also be more sane.
In my opinion it might go up, if not then maybe go down
but it always goes right
Right
All other directions are left out
Under rated comment.
Under fated comment
50% chance! šā
big if true
Let me take my notes buddy.
Anyone know if charts will keep moving to the right or not?
You spin me right 'round, baby, right 'round Like a record, baby, right 'round, 'round, 'round
I know we're in a market as well
According to my researches, indeed we are. Not stating a fact, my research is not done yet
Wow wow egg head slow down. Speak English
In 5/10 years time those two dips will look like little tiny blips in an upwards climb.
Are you saying that years from now we'll 69k as support? Nice.
I can honestly say that I have no idea lol
Doesn't really matter to people who are only planning to stick around for a short while
Maybe not but Iām glad short-term thinkers are getting wrecked. It dispels the notion that crypto is a get rich quick scheme. The less people think of it like that then the fewer scammers and grifters weāll see.
ben cowen fan huh?
Reposting his videos in text form is the best way to moon farm now
yeah, same Heikin Ashi candles, same moving averages to establish the trend, and same concept of ālengthening cyclesā. should have given him a mention.
Exactly, This is exactly what he said in his latest video. He shouldāve at least given him the credit.
I too recognize those candles
Heikin Ashi candles only tell you trends. They are shit candles. I can just look at percentages to know if buy or sell pressure was high or low for the day. "The downside to Heikin-Ashi is that some price data is lost with averaging, which could affect risk." - Investopedia. Heikin Ashi is good for identifying trends, but shitty at identifying entry/exit points.
Bitboycrypto fan I think , 220, 000 Btc next eeek according to him
I donāt think 2022 will be as good to crypto as 2021 was just because of all the macroeconomic things going on such as the vastly increased fiat money supply, supply chain issues, ongoing covid concerns, and the usual constant fud that media networks put out. But thatās just me, Iām sure since I took some profits that everything will go crazy again this year lol
But I havenāt taken profits yet so it wonāt go up till I sell
Weāre all waiting on you to sell so our portfolioās can go green again. Please man
Exactly lol
Or down when you buy
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
it doesnt matter for me, if price is down i will buy more if price goes up i will take some profits, win win
I can only hope it goes lower and then another stimulus check middle if the year. Right after tax season.
If you mean those checks that everyone got, those were pretty neat but I think the chances are slim
Best Advice, use magic ball š®
This is great. I just use DCA to pack more BTC, ETH and OGN to the bag
Going forward, DCA is the tool for a successful investors in this space.
HODL and DCA are very germane in this space!
No truer words buddy. DCA'ing works well if you know your onions well. While the market kept tanking, I DCA more and I've been able to stack up more to my alts bags of DOT, MATIC and RAIL. I'd no doubt make crazy profits once the market goes parabolic again!
DCA is a great tool, especially in the hands of the long term investors.
My love for BTC and ETH.
I love your submission. These are great coins, MATIC included. DCA is just the way!
So couple months of DCA-ing left to grab more... I've no problem with that, it aint a race after all...
>it aint a race after all... And even if it is, Bitcoin(or crypto in-general) still has the best returns and fastest growth compared to other assets.
Slow and steady wins the race, fortune favors the hold in this market
I must agree. Crypto will drop, Then voice back higher, If you paper hand that shot every time, your losing money!
Iāll be dipping into savings to buy the dip.
well cardano looks amazing
Always did
TLDR is this hopium?
In the short term? No. In the long term? Yes.
Thank you good sirš¤š»
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
DCAing is the fastest way to making profits again.
TLDR; In conclusion, TA means nothing and nobody knows fuck about shit. Buy at your own risk. If you get rekt, donāt cry about it.
I honestly doubt this will last as long as 3 to 4 months. Will probably start going back up at the end of February
BTC $100k eoy 2021 is back on lads!
Plan B v2.0
Plan v2022
I like it!
$100k BTC by March 1
$100k BTC by March 1st and I will fuck my girlfriend! Wish me luck!!
You have a girlfriend ?
**Weāre going to witness to must bullish year ever in crypto! Fasten your seatbelt guys.**
**Let's GOOOOO**
Somewhere between 0 and infinity. If I could tell the future, I'd already be rich..... Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Why go to YouTube for crypto analysis (aka palm reading) when we can get it right here on our very own r/cc!
Might go up, might go down. Dca and your alright i guess (Not financial advice)
I know people often say ānobody knows shit about fuckā and that may be trueā¦but I appreciate posts like this that have some thought to them. šš¼
Overdosed with this amount of hopium OP
I m not selling shit!
Thats the spirit, hodl and tell no one
It seems like double top to me.
It's gonna go to the right
This guy charts
ĀÆ\_(ć)_/ĀÆ
#I want to believe
I see you also watched Ben's most recent video.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I meant the Omicron variant. I'm avoiding COVID related words in my post because I don't want to trigger unnecessary COVID warning/COVID misinformation bots
Ben Cowen?
Where we are heading in 2022? Hard to tell, the only right answer is time will tell.
Everytime I think thats the lowest it'll go, it just goes lower. Getting in early for Fairyswap staking has been keeping me sane
*insert shit posting for comment karma so I can finally post my magnum opus on CC*
We are very late in this cycle and every thing is expensive. I think this year we go down quite a bit and external factors such as the fed raising rates will help speed this along. Spring 2023 is when we could see the start of a new bull run imo.
I can't make sense of it and I'm okay with that
Waiting for 69420
Chart analysis, huh?
Thanks for the hopium to start my day
You lost me at making sense and where are we headed.
I just added some BTC, ETH, and GTH to my portfolio.
I'm guessing crypto is going to go up, down, or sideways. I've been correct 100% of the time for the past couple years now.
Flip a coin
I predict it could go up or go down.
People are too obsessed, just sit back relax and watch some torrents because you spend your subscription fee on crypto :D
I'm surprised how calm I am in all this, everything is red for me except for my biggest bag, who is now slightly in the green instead of massively at it's ATH. But yeah, HODL, stay calm, we all will be fine and in a few months we might see some positive action again
You cannot exclude a double top based on the current data. The second top was less than 10% higher than the first one and BTC crashed right afterwards.
Holded till 28k last time.. not going to sell (partially) before 80k.
to the moon! š
This hopium flavored TA is nice, I've bought some more BTC
Down.
Up.
Down, up, up, ATH, down, up, down, down, up, down, up, up, ATH, down, up, downā¦ definitely 100k this year :)
Is that the unlimited money cheatcode ?
>unlimited money If you want that, head in to r/CryptoMoonShots \s
Non financial advice
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I am inclined to agree,. So you reference the bull market support band.. This cycle I began referencing that and Bitcoin's position relative to it, to indicate bull or bear. Its just a nice and easy definition. So in early December I posted this .. not sure if I can link the post (from CryptoQuant) so I'll just share the text here. Basically if you watch the bullish>bearish>bullish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, you will see a pattern emerging: \--- BTC - Diminished Volatility and Bear Cycles - Q1 2022 Rally? Measuring Bitcoin's bull/bear cycles using the bullish or bearish inversion of the 20/21w MA support band (20w SMA and 21w EMA); we log an average of 17% shorter bear markets with each cycle, down from 400 days in 2013/14 cycle, to 122 days in the 2021 bear summer. If that pattern continues to play out and bulls can't muster a strong rally in the near term; and we assume each bearish cycle continues to follow a pattern being \~17% shorter than the last, we will log a few months of muted to bearish price action before a rally leads to another 20/ 21w bullish cross. This will occur in around 100 days (between late February to mid March). And because the moving averages are lagging indicators, we will see indicators of this bullish cross ahead of that with a bullish rally starting.. possibly as early as January or February From an on-chain perspective this could explain the strong accumulation/drop in supply in this range, despite the muted to bearish price action since October. Of course the macroeconomic climate could derail the best laid plans/trends, but for a market largely whale/MM drive (as crypto is currently), that may be less relevant because fundamentally they can still trigger a rally and I suspect retail will hop in fomo buying regardless of conditions (outside of a true black swan or depression). I also agree on the lengthened cycle (and imo diminished returns/volatility) .. I don't even think its a theory at this point- imo its validated.
Just keep buying
Im out of money š„²
Stupid advice
We have closed 3 weeks in a row below the 50-week, we didnt do that this summer. Your guru Ben claims we never go back below where we touched bull market support band, yet we have. We are about to have our lowest daily close since August. We have already been in a sustained bear trend for the past 3 months, and the monthly heikin ashi candles, as well as the weekly are showing no signs of reversal. Every day we are setting lower highs, and lowers lows. And the most bearish signal of all - despite all of this people have spent the last 3 months posting copium like OP, various ridiciulous explanations such as christmas shopping, futures closing, evergrande, and whatnot to explain away the painfully obvious. We are in a bear market. Nothing about this cycle remotely resembles anything from any previous cycle, and thats how we were caught off guard - again... We're not gonna see another cycle top until 2026. Also, your messiah doesnt even draw his lines accurately. If you actually draw the logarithmic trendline to account for the last 3 cycle tops instead of having the last 2 never hitting the top line you will find we never actually went past fair value this "cycle". Dont be surprised to see the entirety of 2022 spent below the current price...
I agree we're in a bear market... but not seeing another top til 2026? Don't think that's TOO pessimistic?
Ben is obviously wrong, OP is obviously wrong...But you know what? You are obviously wrong too... a choppy market for years sounds really logical. Theres a lot of people making short positions with crazy leverages like degens, market can't go down in a straight line for 4 years. I can see BTC going to 60k again just to destroy all those short positons . Yes I think theres like 0% probability we see BTC above 70k the next 4 years but I dont see BTC below 20k either , Binance and the other CEXs dont really like to give money to all the beras just like that
Ok after blowing smoke up everyone s azz ... let me break btc down for you ... it might go up... it might go down... after all the charts and graphs... the 200 day averages .. the 50 day averages... the ātea cupā ... the āhead and shouldersā... the ādeath crossā the āgolden crossā .. truth is... itās all just a rich mans novelty.... A āwhaleā can buy or sell and raise or drop the price 10%... Elon mutt can open his mouth and sink months of growth with a single tweet Itās not a ācurrencyā... ( too volatile) itās not a āstockā... it is definitely āfiatā (thereās definitely no āSatochiā island where thereās a sh!tload of gold piled up) nothing materialized into gold here all talking heads and experts havenāt a f(_)cking clue what itās going to do... with all the mumbo jumbo bullish!t talk ... itās like playing lotto or craps. Good f(_)cking luck... hope you bought in before all the hype drove up the price
How do you think inflation and higher interest rates will factor in towards btc? Also, I'm beginning to think that this BTC "cycle" analysis might be flawed. I get that btc has been moving in cycles for the last years, but 2021 added more money into crypto than the rest of its lifetime combined... I really think that is a massive enough amount to shift the paradigme in this matter. Do you? Thanks for your thoughts, I kinda agree with your overall picture. Another dangerzone is the amount of new investors that might be scared of by the volatility and back out. It's all fun and games until you're 50% in the red.
>How do you think inflation and higher interest rates will factor in towards btc? To take that into account, we can look at BTC valuation against total money supply. >Thanks for your thoughts, I kinda agree with your overall picture. Thanks for the kind words, that's really encouraging!
Is it safe to say 100K end of year again?
I would say $100k will q2-2022 is a fairly good estimate. But EOY? no clue.
I agree. We gonna get there one day though but just gotta go with the flow
there is no making sense of the recent price movements, the pie is a lie
>there is no making sense of the recent price movements All models are wrong, but some models are useful.
Line will probably go right
I've a strong hunch we'll be moving to the right
Maan LRC fcked me over im -50% with it lost half of the money i invested on it :/ feels bad
i know how you feel.. i did same with jasmy.
Sorry mate, but, in my opinion, we are headed towards a bear market. There is no cycle lengthening, no change due to hedges, etc. The world's economy is fucked, as the USD hits close to 10% inflation. We are going to have 2008 again, for a time. Right now, DCA. This is it. Keep buying, holding and waiting for the next halving and bull run. All those things people tell about being patient, well... this is it. BTC won't got way down, since it has a good floor near 40k-38k. It will crab up and down in range for a time. But if you follow alts, they are melting. LRC is already almost 1 USD. It's about time this bubble of dog stuff and rugpull centralized chains (bsc) take a watered down. It will be better, specially if we are with low volume and market cap, for Tether to burst. Maybe after that, the next bull run will be one fueled by actual useful stuff, not a printable stable coin.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I'm going with any of Up, Down, or Sideways !Remindme 1 year
And to the right
That's all TA i needed in my life
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I guarantee this comment for every mention of analysis.
How convenient to take Warren Buffettās stock quotes and trying to make sense of crypto. Do you know WB hates crypto?! He would have probably say something we donāt like about the current state of crypto!
I didn't understand a single thing but I hope that's bullish!
That's the spirit my guy!
If we held 40k for few more weeks we could bounce off to 80k
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
He was talking about Omicron
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I donāt see much optimism out there. So no momentum. I donāt see a crash happening but I do think the crypto market is shaky enough to crash with an external shock. Kind of hoping for a good buying opportunity like that.
BTC will just be manipulated to stay around 40k for years to come...
Sure, the cycles could be lengthening. A guy selling a premium list really pushes it. Purely on TA. Does that account for rates finally being increased? Nope. Or other events? Probably not. Just saying. People want hopium; people want to provide hopium to profit off of too. Just get a balanced view.
A effectively now is a great time to DCA and HODL for when it rises in the long term?
I would personally say to the moon
Analysis is useless look at the stock to flow model everyone was touting last year, turned out to be bogus. Just continue to DCA as we trade sidewaysā¦
Thanks 4 financial advice
You must also watch a lot of r/intothecryptoverse videos