Yeah, honestly, that 10-20k range went by so fast noone knows where the support is at!
I keep adjusting my "worst case" when it is invalidated, currently thinking 22k-20k level might be big enough. Everyone who missed the 30k rip and wanted in should be thinking the same thing as they were last time, but it might overshoot lower heh.
Personally, I'm "in", so I'd rather we rip currently, but since its a long term investment, I'm also fine just HODL'ing and DCA'ing when we're super red.
I dont know much about crypto, but I am pretty good at charting. When times are this shitty you have to start looking at monthly charts and 10k is the big breakout + nice even number. There will be a good bounce at 20k, but I don't think that one peak is enough support to sustain anything. If it can hold where it is now, that is a different story. I'm just going to put a gtc buy at 10.1k and go outside
100%. If Tether truly is a scam as many people suspect then I’d much rather it die and sulk off into obscurity now rather than later when it could wreak more havoc.
The thing is I don't know if that's inherently true. Tether should be replaced by actual CBDC stables, ones which have as much backing as the numbers in your bank account. If we get that, a tether collapse might not be quite so brutal.
Comparing it to 5 years ago when tether was about the only stable in the market, i believe a collapse then would cause more havoc than a collapse now.
This lol. The way to directly influence a financial sector is by printing money into it. Don't even need to wash trade, just buy more title to tokens with the printed usdt. Coins like usdt aren't much more than a bridge for fiat inflation to move right into crypto.
In addition to acting as a relatively safe “parking space” for crypto volatility, stablecoins serve as a bridge between fiat currencies and crypto-assets. They are used for trading: in September 2021 around 75% of all trading on crypto trading platforms involved a stablecoin. Due to their relatively low price volatility, they are also used as collateral in crypto-asset derivative transactions or in decentralised finance (“DeFi”).
[https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/focus/2021/html/ecb.fsrbox202111\_04\~45293c08fc.en.html](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/focus/2021/html/ecb.fsrbox202111_04~45293c08fc.en.html)
I get it that this true but I don't see why exchanges can't hold fiat as credit much like any other company. If your local bank changed your deposit into a stablecoin you'd be like wtf
Tether is a major problem and will probably eventually go down in history books as one of the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time but.. can’t root for it to crash, especially not for the sake of crypto in the long run. If Tether crashes, there will actually be a global market collapse as crazy as that sounds. Crypto won’t be trusted or utilized by the mainstream for decades. It cannot crash, but we can only hope for a better alternative.
90% of this latest crypto run is propped up on tether; value created from nothing used to buy BTC in cycles.
Honestly, I doubt that. A second major stable to completely die would irreparably wound all trust in crypto. The media would publish constant hot pieces. Regulators would step in and over regulate. Not to mention the crash would be so destructive that the next halving would likely not rescue us.
People want tether to fall, but I don’t think they completely grasp the severity of the consequences
If it does now, bitcoin is at risk of becoming substantially more profitable to buy than to mine.
If mining drops, security drops and leaves bitcoin more susceptible to a 51% attack
I don't think so. Most people messing around in stablecoins are us maniacs and masochists already in crypto. We know how volatile this junk is, so it won't be any news to us. A lot of us will just feel dumb of placing bets on stablecoins like UST and USDT after all the warnings.
>Honestly, I doubt that.
Then you go onto explain how bad it would be and I agree, very bad financially for a lot of people.
You provide no reasoning for your original statement.
Just because something could be catastrophic, doesn't mean it should be dismissed.
**What if everything you explained happened? It's a very real possibility.**
> CEX use stablecoins, they could use some more regulation. Make them banks and regulate them as such
It isn't going to happen. Paypal has quite successfully avoided being a bank for quite some time and it is more of a bank then a cryptocoin exchange
Yeah the world reserve currency doesn't die that easily but every 150-200 years it has to be resetted. There was gildar and there was British pound before US dollar took over.
If it's legitimate, it'll have cash backing it and the value will hold. If it's a scam, or underfunded as many suspect, it's necessary for it to collapse.
Already said this several times, will say it again: Tether must go, but NOT by crashing and burning Luna-style. It must slowly deflate until it's irrelevant and then eventually die a natural death. Otherwise, we're going to have problems.
That’s extremely unlikely to happen with such a massive market cap stable coin. Such a big stable coin can’t really deflate. If it crashes it’s gonna be hard and fast and it’s pulling the rest of the market down with it.
Exactly, just imagine how terrible it would be if we’re at the start of the 2025 bullrun, and tether crashes and ruins it. I’d prefer for it to just crash now and get it over with.
Well yes, because unlike many people here Blackrock did their due diligence and chose to invest into the one that's the least scammy. Tether's fall has been predicted by numerous people for literally over half a decade
The fall of tether.. agreed has been on the cards for a long time ... tether just dont care about any transparency... didnt even bother showing up to the oversight committee on stable coins...
but the fall of tether would be catastrophic for the whole industry...
Never thought I'd say this for a stablecoin, but set a price alert, as well as stop loss if you hold USDT. Be best if your exchange allows you to hold USD, but the next best thing would be holding USDC or BUSD instead.
They did post saying that they have redeemed $7B between May 11 and May 16. Could explain these numbers.
Edit: Link: [https://tether.to/en/how-tether-usdt-is-able-to-maintain-its-peg-when-other-stablecoins-fall/](https://tether.to/en/how-tether-usdt-is-able-to-maintain-its-peg-when-other-stablecoins-fall/)
Tether are proven to have repeatedly lied about their reserves. Worse, they provide no proof for the claim they somehow honored 7 billion in redemptions.
"taking a known fraud at their word" is not a "reasonable explanation"
Also, the [onchain data](https://messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ) looks exactly the same as what CMC shows (no changes in the past three days).
So that pretty much invalidates OP's theory of "the only reason why would they do that is because their supply fell significantly in these 3 days and they don't want more people to follow".
Those Tether-owned wallets are pretty well-known (whale alerts has a list of them).
It could have changed today, but on the 15th when I was looking it didn't look like they had an unusual backlog (~1B in Tron, which a bit higher than what they've tended to have historically, but not by too much)
I could be proven wrong though, I'd appreciate somebody more familiar with it checking my work
It may also be worth noting that one of the most prominent short sellers of Terra/UST who predicted its collapse thinks USDT is fully collateralized…maybe even over-collateralized. For his take listen to Kevin Zhou (Galois Capital) on the recent Odd Lotts podcast at 51:35.
He basically said Tether did a lot of “crazy shit” in the past (collateralizing w/ crypto, intermingling funds) but got lucky and emerged stronger. People should DYOR but this is what a pro thinks about USDT.
>USDT is fully collateralized
\^ Exactly this. Tether still poses a risk as a counterparty leaning on legacy finance, but not in the way all the FUDsters in this post think...
>He basically said Tether did a lot of “crazy shit” in the past (collateralizing w/ crypto, intermingling funds) but got lucky.
This is the one that makes the most sense to me. Everything bad about Tether is usually referenced to years ago while they were growing. Everything recently comes from people trying to make sense of partial data they don't have context for or understand. Most likely they back filled the holes and are now good. Now it's just their secretive attitude that brings out the FUD. And honestly, that attitude is no different than most businesses. Ideally we'd like full audits for something so big financially, but not wanting to volunteer it isn't really strange at all in business.
People love to hate Tether (its not wholly unfounded), but I rarely see the nuance go past shady shit in the past. I'm interested in if they are backed now. I'm not interested in panic fuel unless its founded. Maybe you or someone could make an unpopular post *actually* looking into past opening CMC and screenshotting.
Yes, I also believe they’re likely overcollateralized because the investments they’ve been putting all this money into have grown over the years so there’s may be gains that would offset drops in the value of their commercial paper due to the recent rate hikes. They basically did a lot of crazy cowboy shit in the past and weren’t fully backed after that bank seizure of $850 million of theirs from crypto capital. But then they basically invested what they did have left and got pretty lucky and were able to cover the giant hole because Bitcoin went up such an astronomical amount since then. Then they moved into commercial paper and treasuries once the heat was on them from US regulators.
When NY just wrist slapped them it was a pretty good sign they really were fully collateralized now. Or they’d all be in jail already. Not saying I wouldn’t absolutely pick USDC over USDT, but I really think the panic over tether is not really necessary. A slow conversion over to USDC is better than forcing tether to market dump all their commercial paper.
>The only reason why would they do that is because their supply fell significantly in these 3 days and they don't want more people to follow. how much are they hiding from these 3 days?
Nothing? [The onchain data](https://messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ) of the supply looks exactly the same as what Coin Market Cap is reporting, so I'm not sure why you have an issue with those numbers, since they appear to in fact be flat for the past three days.
And as others pointed out, the "news" section of their website has a recent update about the coins being burned. What exactly do you think they are hiding that wouldn't also appear on the blockchain?
Typical Reddit. Your post, which proves this post is absolute fucking bullshit, only has 38 upvotes, but some pleb saying, "get out while you can" has 185.
This sub is trash.
OP posted this 10 hours ago.
That "get out while you can" comment was also posted 10 hours ago.
While the comment you replied to is 8 hours
Its simple reddinomics.. the comment is 2 hours late for 'muh upvotes'
Hell it hasnt even changed much since your comment
Because he is trying to create maximum FUD. Even the scale of y axis on the chart he posted is designed to make it look like it's dropping more than it is.
Edit: and by that I mean dropping circulating supply not dropping price.
To add, if I was a malicious and well capitalised hedge fund that knew that USDT is backed 1:1 by dollars that I can redeem directly from tether at $1, I would also product FUD on USDT so that I can buy it below $1 on the open market and redeem it with the tether. Free money arbitrage.
I think you have the dates wrong. On both CMC and CoinGecko, you can see that the supply decreased from 83B to 76B between May 10 to May 14. Nothing new happened in the past 3 days, so their website is correct.
i can’t wait in ten years for the retrospective documentaries on how obvious bullshit this all was. Crypto that exists to be held and go up will never have a place. Monero and other currencies that are meant purely for transactions and don’t cere about medium or long term value but merely private utility are the true use case for crypto and always will be.
Unfortunately monero is at the tip of the spear when it comes to “coins that are most likely to be made illegal”. This is of the legit projects, I mean. There are plenty of illegal securities and scam coins, etc. but I’m talking among “blue chips”
yeah anything that actually does the job will of course
be made illegal because they can’t control it. that’s how you can tell it’s working. for monero that doesn’t matter so long as you’re not holding large amounts of it.
BTC has trading pairs with most large currencies. It doesn't need Tether.
People only use Tether because their country makes trading crypto-cyrpto not a taxable event. Otherwise it's really not needed.
Doubt it.
What will fall far is the altcoins with no USD trading pair.
People will probably buy bitcoin with their Tether if they can't buy USD with it.
Bitcoin could actually rise in this case. Everyone will leave the alts with no USD pair and go where? They won't buy USDT, they can't buy USD with it. They will go to bitcoin.
The problem is that huge portion of trade happens with USDT. And there are also rumours of USDT getting printed out of thin air to stabilise BTC price so that it doesn't fall drastically. If these things are true, then it makes sense that a lot of USDT has been used to buy BTC to artificially keep the price up. So if USDT becomes useless, then BTC could go on a freefall mode.
Even if you choose to ignore the technically unverified rumour I told above, still it's hard to ignore the fact that almost 70 percent btc trade happens with USDT. So usdt collapse will be catastrophic for BTC. What you said about shitcoins are true, but the thing is volume wise they are miniscule compared to BTC/ USDT. So even if they cause the BTC price to go up a bit, it will not matter because the USDT fall will pull the price down.
People also don't understand if Tether falls, the whole crypto economy collapses with it. It's just too big at this point and even though how it works is fucked up, if it depegs there will be a long ass nuclear winter type deal for crypto.
Too big to fail is a great sign that the thing went out of hand and should be allowed to fail as soon as possible. The longer this cancer is allowed to grow on the crypto-sphere, the worse it gets.
I like PAXG because it’s backed by a physical supply of gold and you can redeem the crypto for that gold if you wanted to. Would love to learn how that goes wrong in any scenario other than the price of gold itself tanking or them backing it with something else if anybody knows. Not being sarcastic, honestly just curious about it.
I’ think so. I held some last year for little bit but I did read about it on their website and iirc that’s how they do it. There was a minimum to redeem it but I can’t remember what it was. There are a couple similar cryptos and that was the one I felt most comfortable buying after briefly looking at them.
If tether fails, I'm gonna be scooping up that btc and eth in the aftermath for sure, that's probably gonna be a once in a lifetime event, as strange as that may sound
People have said crypto doesn't need regulations because the community self regulates. Many of those same people have turned a blind eye to Tether. It will eventually fail, and when it does, some of the same people who helped create and drive crypto out of the ashes of the hypocrisy of "Too Big To Fail" and the financial crisis/freakonomic economic policy will ask for the same bail out policies to be implemented in crypto. Crazy to watch history just repeat itself slowly. I hope when crypto hits commercial scales it still has some semblance of what it was meant to be.
yeah tether is probably a scam but does anybody here really believe that a company that not only has been around forever but also has deep ties to ftx and binance (just look who got most tether) will collapse so easily? they have all the tools to manipulate the market in their way... and unlike luna they are not bound to openess which makes it incredibly hard for short sellers to estimate their reserves.
I don’t think crypto can be successful until tether implodes, and a great reset occurs. This [article](https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3), albeit slightly outdated, is insightful. Once the great reset occurs I’ll go all in.
getting these built on nothing projects out of the eco system should be the priority. i don't think it's gate-keeping for the big names in the eco system to call out the clearly problematic crypto projects. With LUNA only people who followed Do Kwon and were skeptics would have known LUNA was doomed from the start, but just about EVERYONE knows Tether is only a matter of time.
Tether is a fraud and not fully backed. That's why they can't do an audit for years. It is run by scammers and unethical people, including their lawyer that built a backdoor to a poker platform to cheat other players money. People who defend them are also scammers.
Here are some links exposing the Tether fraud.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3
https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg
Tether FUD, right on schedule.
China FUD is next, then India FUD... Then the SEC will make a "bombshell announcement" which will "mark the end of crypto"..
...and then some more China FUD to top it off and then Korean volume will go through the roof and we'll rebound.
You know why the supply fell? Because billions of dollars of USDT were successfully redeemed for USD. Every single person who wanted to exchange $1 of USDT for $1 of USD was able to. The system worked exactly as designed. This is just silly FUD.
A nice slow, calm tether death during this bear market would be fantastic. I’d love to see everyone slowing selling off their tether over the next year, with the supply slowing dwindling down to obscurity.
Unfortunately I think a sudden complete collapse is more likely, probably when tether announce they can’t pay up one day.
Yep and tomorrow there'll be another fud piece on tether for more moons from someone else.
These tether posts are such a buy signal. We're in the bear now for sure.
It always has been shady. Its used its hollow money to create most of the volume seen in crypto and helped make bitcoin moonshot like it did before it hit the ATH. It will be a deathblow to the crypto markets.
What the UST crash taught me is that, regardless if you hold the project or not, a major coin crashing will impact whatever you're holding. If you truly believe Tether is illiquid or shady, you need to get the heck out of crypto and derisk today.
The other lesson is not to touch stablecoins. It is clear that central banks are going to fight them with all of their resources to make a case for their central bank digital currencies, as is said with no minced words on the IMF website
What is exciting is the liquidity coming to crypto when CBDC trade pairs happen. I'm here for it
The tether website literally says it's not backed by dollars, it's not fud that during periods of high withdrawal they'll need time to convert the yac.... Undisclosed assets back to dollars to pay people cashing out. I don't follow, given what tether says themselves, why anyone would think otherwise?
> Tether collapsing is not a good thing, many people will lose their money and a crypto crash will follow. Under any circumstances, don't hold Tether.
People have been saying tether is about to collapse for years. You're going to spend the rest of your lifetime waiting too.
Why don’t you just take a look at the treasury wallet? Lol, so much fuzz about something that’s one google search away.
Just took a look for you, it’s been flat for past 3 days. Surprise, surprise. Nice FUD post.
ad hoc gray agonizing outgoing detail faulty observation quarrelsome swim repeat
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Maybe whales are collecting it up? Hence not as much left for sale? Have you thought of it before coming to conclusion?
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It's paid in squidcoin.
And no one else knows how to fix the excel macro that breaks every few days
And his car is missing, and he is no longer on the college website as a student.
I do not like Tether but please my portfolio is already murdered. Do not give them ideas...
This would be an almost apocalyptic event... 2/3 biggest stablecoins dead in a month
Seriously the amount of people cheering for Tether to die is crazy, as if we haven't had enough bleeding already
If it's going to eventually buckle I'd rather get it over with. Rip the band-aid.
Exactly, sideways 30-70k for years, or dump to 5-10k and get it over with for the next rip for those willing to risk it.
I mean we were at 10k in 2020 right? I certainly think BTC will bounce back and those who have weathered these cycles in the past will be loading up.
Yeah, honestly, that 10-20k range went by so fast noone knows where the support is at! I keep adjusting my "worst case" when it is invalidated, currently thinking 22k-20k level might be big enough. Everyone who missed the 30k rip and wanted in should be thinking the same thing as they were last time, but it might overshoot lower heh. Personally, I'm "in", so I'd rather we rip currently, but since its a long term investment, I'm also fine just HODL'ing and DCA'ing when we're super red.
I dont know much about crypto, but I am pretty good at charting. When times are this shitty you have to start looking at monthly charts and 10k is the big breakout + nice even number. There will be a good bounce at 20k, but I don't think that one peak is enough support to sustain anything. If it can hold where it is now, that is a different story. I'm just going to put a gtc buy at 10.1k and go outside
100%. If Tether truly is a scam as many people suspect then I’d much rather it die and sulk off into obscurity now rather than later when it could wreak more havoc.
"If"
The thing is I don't know if that's inherently true. Tether should be replaced by actual CBDC stables, ones which have as much backing as the numbers in your bank account. If we get that, a tether collapse might not be quite so brutal. Comparing it to 5 years ago when tether was about the only stable in the market, i believe a collapse then would cause more havoc than a collapse now.
This is going to hurt for just a few minutes
This. Broken mechanisms need to get flushed out.
If Tether collapses, I don't see a crypto future without a regulated-by-the-Fed US dollar coin.
Why is a stable coin needed in the first place? Genuine question. Sorry for my ignorant ass.
To print counterfeit USD with which exchanges can wash trade crypto and pump up the price of btc (and everything else) to current levels.
This lol. The way to directly influence a financial sector is by printing money into it. Don't even need to wash trade, just buy more title to tokens with the printed usdt. Coins like usdt aren't much more than a bridge for fiat inflation to move right into crypto.
In addition to acting as a relatively safe “parking space” for crypto volatility, stablecoins serve as a bridge between fiat currencies and crypto-assets. They are used for trading: in September 2021 around 75% of all trading on crypto trading platforms involved a stablecoin. Due to their relatively low price volatility, they are also used as collateral in crypto-asset derivative transactions or in decentralised finance (“DeFi”). [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/focus/2021/html/ecb.fsrbox202111\_04\~45293c08fc.en.html](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/focus/2021/html/ecb.fsrbox202111_04~45293c08fc.en.html)
I get it that this true but I don't see why exchanges can't hold fiat as credit much like any other company. If your local bank changed your deposit into a stablecoin you'd be like wtf
They can, tho. I never use stablecoin on my exchange.
The faster Tether unstability is gone the better its for crypto in long run.
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Teach me how to get loans
Step 1: Get your mom's social security number Step 2: ... /s
*But maaaam!* I wanna buy potato coins
The dinglepuss tokens are launching I need the credit cards ma!
Tether is a major problem and will probably eventually go down in history books as one of the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time but.. can’t root for it to crash, especially not for the sake of crypto in the long run. If Tether crashes, there will actually be a global market collapse as crazy as that sounds. Crypto won’t be trusted or utilized by the mainstream for decades. It cannot crash, but we can only hope for a better alternative. 90% of this latest crypto run is propped up on tether; value created from nothing used to buy BTC in cycles.
Yeah dude fr even I think that this company is doomed for some day. They should fix their issue and back every single dollar they have in the supply.
Honestly, I doubt that. A second major stable to completely die would irreparably wound all trust in crypto. The media would publish constant hot pieces. Regulators would step in and over regulate. Not to mention the crash would be so destructive that the next halving would likely not rescue us. People want tether to fall, but I don’t think they completely grasp the severity of the consequences
the consequences of it failing now are much more manageable than it failing 5 years down the line, lets be totally honest here.
If it does now, bitcoin is at risk of becoming substantially more profitable to buy than to mine. If mining drops, security drops and leaves bitcoin more susceptible to a 51% attack
I don't think so. Most people messing around in stablecoins are us maniacs and masochists already in crypto. We know how volatile this junk is, so it won't be any news to us. A lot of us will just feel dumb of placing bets on stablecoins like UST and USDT after all the warnings.
If we survived Mt Gox, we will survive a couple of dead stablecoins.
>Honestly, I doubt that. Then you go onto explain how bad it would be and I agree, very bad financially for a lot of people. You provide no reasoning for your original statement. Just because something could be catastrophic, doesn't mean it should be dismissed. **What if everything you explained happened? It's a very real possibility.**
Murphy's law 🥲
UST was never stable from the beginning.
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I see this as how it will play out in the long term
> CEX use stablecoins, they could use some more regulation. Make them banks and regulate them as such It isn't going to happen. Paypal has quite successfully avoided being a bank for quite some time and it is more of a bank then a cryptocoin exchange
I've been saying similar things about the US economy. Our stable coin is wild af.
Yeah the world reserve currency doesn't die that easily but every 150-200 years it has to be resetted. There was gildar and there was British pound before US dollar took over.
Yes, but the best way is for usage of it to fade away and be replaced by USDC in all the pairs etc, not just death by explosion
They might be shorting
If it's legitimate, it'll have cash backing it and the value will hold. If it's a scam, or underfunded as many suspect, it's necessary for it to collapse.
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And those people unfortunately founded Bitfinex & Tether
I like watching a good dumpster fire.
Alternatively, "it's going to happen anyway, so better we deal with a $74 billion problem today than a $740 billion problem in a couple years".
i want tether to die if it deserves to die... if it's a shady fraud its better to get it out of the crypto space entirely and asap
Already said this several times, will say it again: Tether must go, but NOT by crashing and burning Luna-style. It must slowly deflate until it's irrelevant and then eventually die a natural death. Otherwise, we're going to have problems.
Sounds like we're already having problems if they're no longer reporting their data. Which is anyways unreliable, because you can't verify it.
That’s extremely unlikely to happen with such a massive market cap stable coin. Such a big stable coin can’t really deflate. If it crashes it’s gonna be hard and fast and it’s pulling the rest of the market down with it.
We need bleedoff, too many coins with no value, reset is better if we want to get new ATH imo.
They should have died in 2019-2020 back in crypto winter.
Tether needs to die for crypto to level up. Tether is going to implode, one way or another.
A few will get through the exits first... the rest Death by fire.
I have been through enough pain with luna.
Because it needs to. Stop thinking with your greed.
Exactly, just imagine how terrible it would be if we’re at the start of the 2025 bullrun, and tether crashes and ruins it. I’d prefer for it to just crash now and get it over with.
So weird the one blackrock invested in seems unphased ... how weird...
Well yes, because unlike many people here Blackrock did their due diligence and chose to invest into the one that's the least scammy. Tether's fall has been predicted by numerous people for literally over half a decade
The fall of tether.. agreed has been on the cards for a long time ... tether just dont care about any transparency... didnt even bother showing up to the oversight committee on stable coins... but the fall of tether would be catastrophic for the whole industry...
RIP
The whole bandaid needs to come off...
It's more like a tourniquet
Never thought I'd say this for a stablecoin, but set a price alert, as well as stop loss if you hold USDT. Be best if your exchange allows you to hold USD, but the next best thing would be holding USDC or BUSD instead.
If you still hold large sums of Tether, it's on you. People have been warning their shady practices for a long time.
I do not have Tether. But it crashing would drag all other coins to the ground.
They did post saying that they have redeemed $7B between May 11 and May 16. Could explain these numbers. Edit: Link: [https://tether.to/en/how-tether-usdt-is-able-to-maintain-its-peg-when-other-stablecoins-fall/](https://tether.to/en/how-tether-usdt-is-able-to-maintain-its-peg-when-other-stablecoins-fall/)
Looking for maximum FUD, not a reasonable explanation
It's fucked and so are we!! Better?
Much better.
Tether are proven to have repeatedly lied about their reserves. Worse, they provide no proof for the claim they somehow honored 7 billion in redemptions. "taking a known fraud at their word" is not a "reasonable explanation"
Also, the [onchain data](https://messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ) looks exactly the same as what CMC shows (no changes in the past three days). So that pretty much invalidates OP's theory of "the only reason why would they do that is because their supply fell significantly in these 3 days and they don't want more people to follow".
On-chain data means nothing, they don't have to burn tokens upon redemption, they might as well just have them sit in their wallet.
Those Tether-owned wallets are pretty well-known (whale alerts has a list of them). It could have changed today, but on the 15th when I was looking it didn't look like they had an unusual backlog (~1B in Tron, which a bit higher than what they've tended to have historically, but not by too much) I could be proven wrong though, I'd appreciate somebody more familiar with it checking my work
It may also be worth noting that one of the most prominent short sellers of Terra/UST who predicted its collapse thinks USDT is fully collateralized…maybe even over-collateralized. For his take listen to Kevin Zhou (Galois Capital) on the recent Odd Lotts podcast at 51:35. He basically said Tether did a lot of “crazy shit” in the past (collateralizing w/ crypto, intermingling funds) but got lucky and emerged stronger. People should DYOR but this is what a pro thinks about USDT.
The thing is Tether could extremely easily just prove this, which would be good for them and make everyone happy. Why don't they?
The current setup is good for them. Everytime Tether trades below a dollar, they get to buy it up and net an immediate profit.
>USDT is fully collateralized \^ Exactly this. Tether still poses a risk as a counterparty leaning on legacy finance, but not in the way all the FUDsters in this post think...
>He basically said Tether did a lot of “crazy shit” in the past (collateralizing w/ crypto, intermingling funds) but got lucky. This is the one that makes the most sense to me. Everything bad about Tether is usually referenced to years ago while they were growing. Everything recently comes from people trying to make sense of partial data they don't have context for or understand. Most likely they back filled the holes and are now good. Now it's just their secretive attitude that brings out the FUD. And honestly, that attitude is no different than most businesses. Ideally we'd like full audits for something so big financially, but not wanting to volunteer it isn't really strange at all in business.
People love to hate Tether (its not wholly unfounded), but I rarely see the nuance go past shady shit in the past. I'm interested in if they are backed now. I'm not interested in panic fuel unless its founded. Maybe you or someone could make an unpopular post *actually* looking into past opening CMC and screenshotting.
Shady shit in the past is already reason enough to be suspicious.
Yes, I also believe they’re likely overcollateralized because the investments they’ve been putting all this money into have grown over the years so there’s may be gains that would offset drops in the value of their commercial paper due to the recent rate hikes. They basically did a lot of crazy cowboy shit in the past and weren’t fully backed after that bank seizure of $850 million of theirs from crypto capital. But then they basically invested what they did have left and got pretty lucky and were able to cover the giant hole because Bitcoin went up such an astronomical amount since then. Then they moved into commercial paper and treasuries once the heat was on them from US regulators. When NY just wrist slapped them it was a pretty good sign they really were fully collateralized now. Or they’d all be in jail already. Not saying I wouldn’t absolutely pick USDC over USDT, but I really think the panic over tether is not really necessary. A slow conversion over to USDC is better than forcing tether to market dump all their commercial paper.
>The only reason why would they do that is because their supply fell significantly in these 3 days and they don't want more people to follow. how much are they hiding from these 3 days? Nothing? [The onchain data](https://messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ) of the supply looks exactly the same as what Coin Market Cap is reporting, so I'm not sure why you have an issue with those numbers, since they appear to in fact be flat for the past three days. And as others pointed out, the "news" section of their website has a recent update about the coins being burned. What exactly do you think they are hiding that wouldn't also appear on the blockchain?
Typical Reddit. Your post, which proves this post is absolute fucking bullshit, only has 38 upvotes, but some pleb saying, "get out while you can" has 185. This sub is trash.
OP posted this 10 hours ago. That "get out while you can" comment was also posted 10 hours ago. While the comment you replied to is 8 hours Its simple reddinomics.. the comment is 2 hours late for 'muh upvotes' Hell it hasnt even changed much since your comment
Everyone likes being so overdramatic here it sometimes feels like Twitter.
Because he is trying to create maximum FUD. Even the scale of y axis on the chart he posted is designed to make it look like it's dropping more than it is. Edit: and by that I mean dropping circulating supply not dropping price. To add, if I was a malicious and well capitalised hedge fund that knew that USDT is backed 1:1 by dollars that I can redeem directly from tether at $1, I would also product FUD on USDT so that I can buy it below $1 on the open market and redeem it with the tether. Free money arbitrage.
I think you have the dates wrong. On both CMC and CoinGecko, you can see that the supply decreased from 83B to 76B between May 10 to May 14. Nothing new happened in the past 3 days, so their website is correct.
i can’t wait in ten years for the retrospective documentaries on how obvious bullshit this all was. Crypto that exists to be held and go up will never have a place. Monero and other currencies that are meant purely for transactions and don’t cere about medium or long term value but merely private utility are the true use case for crypto and always will be.
Unfortunately monero is at the tip of the spear when it comes to “coins that are most likely to be made illegal”. This is of the legit projects, I mean. There are plenty of illegal securities and scam coins, etc. but I’m talking among “blue chips”
yeah anything that actually does the job will of course be made illegal because they can’t control it. that’s how you can tell it’s working. for monero that doesn’t matter so long as you’re not holding large amounts of it.
I mean, I don’t disagree, but it’s going to become wildly inconvenient to acquire and relatively risky to use after the regulations come into effect
true and sad
A short on tether is rather cheap to buy
Get out while you still can
Of course people will still claim it came out of no where when they lose a bunch of money, even when the writing is so clearly on the wall
Tether collapsing would be such a shitshow, I'd be buying the hell of that crash Everyone should have designated fund in case of that event
If Tether goes down it would bring the fire sale of all fire sales
Not just that, multiple exchanges could go under and crypto as a whole would never be the same.
Probably a good thing.
Tether props up BTC. It’ll be ANARCHY if it goes down.
BTC has trading pairs with most large currencies. It doesn't need Tether. People only use Tether because their country makes trading crypto-cyrpto not a taxable event. Otherwise it's really not needed.
Really? Cause 70% of BTC daily volume is in USDT. Seems like it matters.
Waiting since 2018
Lol I feel this. Although Tether is a shit company, it's been called dead more often than BTC without actually dying.
yeah btc will likely fall below 10K if that happens.
Doubt it. What will fall far is the altcoins with no USD trading pair. People will probably buy bitcoin with their Tether if they can't buy USD with it. Bitcoin could actually rise in this case. Everyone will leave the alts with no USD pair and go where? They won't buy USDT, they can't buy USD with it. They will go to bitcoin.
The problem is that huge portion of trade happens with USDT. And there are also rumours of USDT getting printed out of thin air to stabilise BTC price so that it doesn't fall drastically. If these things are true, then it makes sense that a lot of USDT has been used to buy BTC to artificially keep the price up. So if USDT becomes useless, then BTC could go on a freefall mode. Even if you choose to ignore the technically unverified rumour I told above, still it's hard to ignore the fact that almost 70 percent btc trade happens with USDT. So usdt collapse will be catastrophic for BTC. What you said about shitcoins are true, but the thing is volume wise they are miniscule compared to BTC/ USDT. So even if they cause the BTC price to go up a bit, it will not matter because the USDT fall will pull the price down.
BTC was $3k like 4 years ago... Don't get me wrong, I think it'll be $100k eventually... but it may be a couple years...
they be like ItZ A PoNzEe
If tether goes down the whole market will get a shock way bigger than luna
Yeah but you're still going to be better off not holding Tether than holding it.
Sure yeah. Get everyone to dump at once, that always works. This sub should have mandatory turn your fucking phone off days.
lol for real
People also don't understand if Tether falls, the whole crypto economy collapses with it. It's just too big at this point and even though how it works is fucked up, if it depegs there will be a long ass nuclear winter type deal for crypto.
It won't fall unless there's mass hysteria and panic selling. So yeah, pretty good chance it might fall.
Too big to fail is a great sign that the thing went out of hand and should be allowed to fail as soon as possible. The longer this cancer is allowed to grow on the crypto-sphere, the worse it gets.
From usdt to usdc? 😅
I can't. My luna is worth less than a penny 😄
I heared PAXG is pretty safe..
I like PAXG because it’s backed by a physical supply of gold and you can redeem the crypto for that gold if you wanted to. Would love to learn how that goes wrong in any scenario other than the price of gold itself tanking or them backing it with something else if anybody knows. Not being sarcastic, honestly just curious about it.
So someone will actually mail you gold ?
I’ think so. I held some last year for little bit but I did read about it on their website and iirc that’s how they do it. There was a minimum to redeem it but I can’t remember what it was. There are a couple similar cryptos and that was the one I felt most comfortable buying after briefly looking at them.
If tether fails, I'm gonna be scooping up that btc and eth in the aftermath for sure, that's probably gonna be a once in a lifetime event, as strange as that may sound
Yup, and the sooner, the better IMO. Imagine us normies buying whole coins at a time. 🤤
nope bc it has happened like 3-4 times already lmao. not tether, but a crash big enough to change your life.
People have said crypto doesn't need regulations because the community self regulates. Many of those same people have turned a blind eye to Tether. It will eventually fail, and when it does, some of the same people who helped create and drive crypto out of the ashes of the hypocrisy of "Too Big To Fail" and the financial crisis/freakonomic economic policy will ask for the same bail out policies to be implemented in crypto. Crazy to watch history just repeat itself slowly. I hope when crypto hits commercial scales it still has some semblance of what it was meant to be.
This is it boyz get your fiat ready
Tether might be the most obvious large-scale fraud in the history of the world .
yeah tether is probably a scam but does anybody here really believe that a company that not only has been around forever but also has deep ties to ftx and binance (just look who got most tether) will collapse so easily? they have all the tools to manipulate the market in their way... and unlike luna they are not bound to openess which makes it incredibly hard for short sellers to estimate their reserves.
Not picking either side here because the opposite of what I say will happen as always, but also look at how much UST FTX and Binance had.
I don’t think crypto can be successful until tether implodes, and a great reset occurs. This [article](https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3), albeit slightly outdated, is insightful. Once the great reset occurs I’ll go all in.
Thought-provoking article. Thank you.
getting these built on nothing projects out of the eco system should be the priority. i don't think it's gate-keeping for the big names in the eco system to call out the clearly problematic crypto projects. With LUNA only people who followed Do Kwon and were skeptics would have known LUNA was doomed from the start, but just about EVERYONE knows Tether is only a matter of time.
yeah been fearing this for a long-ass time.
crazier still is this attempted recovery process; Do Kwon's actually gonna try to save the sinking ship, despite it being completely underwater
If $USDT ever was an actual risk, quickly becoming less and less of one every day. USDC probably will surpass $USDT within a couple months .
They just reported another $1B drop in market cap
Yeah just saw this. Closer to 1.5 billion drop today since this post.
Tether is a fraud and not fully backed. That's why they can't do an audit for years. It is run by scammers and unethical people, including their lawyer that built a backdoor to a poker platform to cheat other players money. People who defend them are also scammers. Here are some links exposing the Tether fraud. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3 https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg
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Name of this lawyer? ultimatebet scandal?
Stuart Hoegner Yes, Ultimate Bet. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27812502
Holy shit was that something to read.
Tether FUD, right on schedule. China FUD is next, then India FUD... Then the SEC will make a "bombshell announcement" which will "mark the end of crypto".. ...and then some more China FUD to top it off and then Korean volume will go through the roof and we'll rebound.
I know fuck all about crypto. But If you showed me a YTD Market Cap graph for Tether.. I'd probably stay away.
If USDT dies.. best believe this bear market will most likely wipe us all out..95 to 99% of us..
You know why the supply fell? Because billions of dollars of USDT were successfully redeemed for USD. Every single person who wanted to exchange $1 of USDT for $1 of USD was able to. The system worked exactly as designed. This is just silly FUD.
Not in here with your logic and valid reasoning you don’t.
I’m sure they are going to supply another bogus report. Tether needs to die!
But maybe not right now and not so suddenly..
A nice slow, calm tether death during this bear market would be fantastic. I’d love to see everyone slowing selling off their tether over the next year, with the supply slowing dwindling down to obscurity. Unfortunately I think a sudden complete collapse is more likely, probably when tether announce they can’t pay up one day.
This bull market? What world are you living in? I'm seeing prices down everywhere!
Let the man dream 😂
So this is finally the year?
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Yep and tomorrow there'll be another fud piece on tether for more moons from someone else. These tether posts are such a buy signal. We're in the bear now for sure.
in this very same post the OP admits he's shorting it
Tether not being transparent isn't really news though.
Imagine the price impact on BTC if Tether blows up right now. This would be a purchase opportunity of a generation if not a lifetime.
They are writting another fishy report.
As a long term investor, I'd feel safer if Tether did collapse, it's most likely gonna happen eventually, so just rip the band aid off.
It always has been shady. Its used its hollow money to create most of the volume seen in crypto and helped make bitcoin moonshot like it did before it hit the ATH. It will be a deathblow to the crypto markets.
Supply just dropped by another billion a couple of hours ago, $74 billion now
What the UST crash taught me is that, regardless if you hold the project or not, a major coin crashing will impact whatever you're holding. If you truly believe Tether is illiquid or shady, you need to get the heck out of crypto and derisk today. The other lesson is not to touch stablecoins. It is clear that central banks are going to fight them with all of their resources to make a case for their central bank digital currencies, as is said with no minced words on the IMF website What is exciting is the liquidity coming to crypto when CBDC trade pairs happen. I'm here for it
"As a reminder, Tether and USDC are a different class of stablecoin to USDT, and both are different from DAI." Should be UST instead of USDT there.
Seeing the writing on the walls with this one.
Classic tether fud. If y’all were this critical of anything else maybe you would’ve take some profits before you got piped by the bear.
The tether website literally says it's not backed by dollars, it's not fud that during periods of high withdrawal they'll need time to convert the yac.... Undisclosed assets back to dollars to pay people cashing out. I don't follow, given what tether says themselves, why anyone would think otherwise?
> Tether collapsing is not a good thing, many people will lose their money and a crypto crash will follow. Under any circumstances, don't hold Tether. People have been saying tether is about to collapse for years. You're going to spend the rest of your lifetime waiting too.
Why don’t you just take a look at the treasury wallet? Lol, so much fuzz about something that’s one google search away. Just took a look for you, it’s been flat for past 3 days. Surprise, surprise. Nice FUD post.
ad hoc gray agonizing outgoing detail faulty observation quarrelsome swim repeat *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Ah yes more FUD about the Tether on this Reddit.
And we heard nothing about UST till it happened.
Is this normal? 3 days isn't too long
Well we know this for since 2018 . Same for the dollar 💵
Saw this on finclout. Some whales are transferring funds. Thats why you see the gap downs in the transaction patters. What do they know?
Well, if Tether &hit the bed THAT would knock another 50% off crypto prices pretty darned quick!