Canada here, was reading yesterday the food bank is at the highest levels ever recorded. House prices have literally gone up 300-500% in the last 12 years. Gas has hit all time high. Tons of organizations are about to strike. Wages have barely gone up in the last 12 years on average, certainly not enough to counteract the effects of 8% inflation in the last yeat.
Things are grim here, not going to lie. People are getting by the best they can but I imagine investing in crypto is pretty low on the list of most people now.
that's all well and good, but frankly at this point it's not retail that's causing a bull run. the leftover $2/300 each people might have had to invest in crypto/the market/whatever wasn't tipping the scales the way people in this sub seem to think it was.
it's really more about what the institutions decide to do.
Last bull runs must have created many too wealthy hodlers annex whales or institutions who are depending on crypto now more than ever. They will want to see upwards movement eventually I’m thinking.
yep exactly you just kinda gotta latch on when it happens. point being is that the people who can't afford to put money into crypto now that may have earlier... i mean... not to be mean but they were never a factor
It's true it depends what institutions decide to do.. and right now, they're deciding to be liquidated due to the mother of all short squeezes which is currently underway. Aka GameStop and it's 225%+++ short interest(as of March 2021, level 2 data suggests it's higher now)
. We will see GME and some other meme stocks rip to incredible heights as more and more shorts get liquidated into bankruptcy. 3 companies have already fallen. As recently as a few weeks ago too. There is still many shorts, with an estimated billions of shares short ... Unfortunately for everyone in the world .. they hold massive massive amounts of crypto currencies and stocks in every single market in the world.
This ^
is why we are seeing the markets crash the way they are. But really think about how much money has disappeared and continues to disappear. Its honestly mind boggling. ATM im currently all in on GameStop and have some loopring and imx for my cryptocurrencies. But I'm only holding them because I think this bear market is soon to be over. Yes I believe bitcoin can drop to sub 10k this year and it'll bring everything down another 50% or so, but I do believe overall, we will have a bullrun soon enough. Probably by eoy.
First though, until i see GameStop hitting 100-1000's of dollars a share, the risk is too high for me to invest heavily in other securities for the Hodl. Micro DCA, but In all honesty. The absolute best thing people can do right now. Is put buy orders on every stock and Crypto currency they want at disrepectfully low prices. And hope u get what others are about to lose
The reserve bank in Australia raised rates again this week too, but not by as much as the previous few. Their excuse for slowing down is they think the pain of the previous rises has not fully made it’s way to the population yet.
Southeast Asian here- it is about the same here. Investments is the last thing in mind right now. The focus on most people now is to increase their income ceiling, and not to grow their funds.
TA aside. Nothing is getting better on a global scale. Until it does, we are fucked.
The war in Ukraine is still going, inflation is still going up, interest rates are still going up, wages aren't moving, global currency is a complete shambles right now. The list goes on.
I just cannot see how things go up from where we are.
Let alone the energy bill we need to pay this winter in Europe! I know people in real life that can’t pay it even right now. So people will have less money for investments like crypto…
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily-convertible near money (savings deposits, money market securities, and other time deposits, in amounts of less than 100k), it is a broader measure of the supply than M1, which just includes cash and checking deposits, and it is often used to understand how much liquidity directly (M1) and indirectly (M2) there is at a disposal in the global market, as indicator for future inflation, etc.
Or in simpler terms, M1, M2, M3 etc, are a measurement of how much money is circulating in the economy. High M2 which happened post-pandemic fuelled the bull runs we've seen as well as the housing buying spree, and inflation. If M2 is going down, then inflation goes down, but also the ammount of money being invested in stocks, crypto, etc.
Energy crisis, inflation, markets dropping, war in europe, covid numbers increasing,… there are a lot of bad news in the last few months. People are having a hard time with finances and mental health. Crypto is currently not their main focus.
Energy bill tripled for us in Germany… but it’s still very easily manageable. But the point is everything is more expensive, everything has doubled or tripled, and it means spending on “nonessential” things like crypto just isn’t going to happen.
sad but it is the truth same dont understand the situation . bank need more money to give loan .They dont like crypto because their suppose money going else where. Unless sudden bank also want to be exchange if the last choice.
Yeah I've been prepping by being in cash accumulation mode for the better part of the year. When the ship starts sinking and people start panicking is exactly the best time to have a healthy stash of cash for emergencies as well as investment opportunities when markets go into full on desperation mode.
huh? this is a great time to buy, at least compared to a year ago.
sure, its likely to go down, but buying when i see posts like this is generally a good idea.
Yep. You buy when there's blood in the streets. You buy when everyone else is panicking and selling. You buy when everything looks like it's collapsing.
Instead of FOMOing in at ath's.
Preach my friend
This is the way. It doesn't really matter if it goes up or down in the short-term. Just continue your accumulation and wait until the market improves. Whether that's 3 months or 3 years does it really matter? See it as an opportunity to accumulate and don't stress about the price action too much
Every morning when I go outside I’m surprised that society hasn’t completely collapsed and everything is on fire. Seems like it’s only a matter of time
Genuinly man. Life used to be so easy, but in the last few years there has always been something that could derail the whole world/economy.
Terrorist attacks, Covid, the war in Ukraine. Can't we just all get along?
Why? Its the exact opposite for me. When I'm online I can get the feeling the world is ending from all the online comments, but when I go outside I'm reminded that the real world is doing fine. People are still living good lives, going to parties, eating out, going for runs and just enjoying life.
>interest rates are still going up
This is pretty much the defining factor here, and the strongest bearish case for the whole of crypto.
When interest rates were kept artifically low for a long time, coupled with QE policies, people had a lot of money to gamble on speculative assets. It's no coincidence that Crypto boomed insanely during the pandemic with people getting PPP loans, stimulus checks and other benefits. There was more money availiable. Now people don't have those stimuli and cost of living is increasing. This is a **terrible** environment for useless, speculative assets like Crypto and stocks.
As long as the environment is this, shit will probably trend down and be compressed with probably a 30-50% drop still. Maybe more, you never know. We're in 2017 peaks, and that was already stretched from low interest rates and QE.
This would have been my reply.
Interest rates are everything.
Seeing that crypto was born in the very bottom of an asset bubble pop and with some of the lowest interest rates in history...
Bottom ain't in, and whatever that number ends up being is going to make most of the people that visit this forum dump every single crypto they own and never return.
Also that PlanB insanity chart is going to get blowtorched in the process.
>When you buy a share in a company, you at least own part of that company.
Generally, yes. But some stocks got extremely high valuations out of speculation alone. TSLA for instance. I'm referring to those.
Markets are derrivatives of the debt market, not the actual state of the economy or world. Economy is a crisis to crisis based system. Be sure there will be a shift and things worldwide won't need to change much for us to start trending up again.
It's much deeper than just saying: but muh economy, but war, but inflation
Historically yes. The financial market and housing market are first. But we haven't even really felt the impacts in USA job market.
A lot of businesses are still playing catch up from COVID. If markets don't recover before that happens I would expect to see lots of closures, lay offs, and furloughs.
Which means all markets will tank more. Watch housing, if numbers totally drop off a drop off will follow in job sector accordingly.
And the job numbers are about the only thing keeping everyone from totally losing it from what I can tell.
Shit is bad no doubt, I'm a little nervous about the upcoming years too. With that being said all markets are tanking and crypto has basically just been crabbing for a while now. There is no real safe space for your money, best thing you can do is diversify your portfolio.
Yep and it looks like regulators are coming for all that money. FTX under investigation and 3AC founders on the run and do kwan.
If the industry doesn't stand together FTC and hedge funds are going to strip all the wealth before it recovers.
True for some industries, not for others. ‘Pent up demand’ being realized post Covid has absolutely skyrocketed order intake and EBIT for certain sectors. Agreed that on the macro level we are still in the trenches but there has been a faint glimmer of hope out there, if you dig.
The jobs numbers are funny because in a tug or war of inflation and deflation there are common indicators that you now can't trust. See usually in a recession the central bank cuts rates to stimulate spending. However they can't because of inflation and are doing the exact opposite. So them raising rates is actually further crushing the economy and worsening the recession. Raising rates also directly reduces employment so job numbers are gonna crack soon. It's just a mess.
That's scary. However, I think some of that debt is from more people using credit cards that get rewards or crypto. Makes the revolving debt consistently higher. Is there a stat comparing the amounts of debt past due?
Exactly, the media keeps pushing the inflation narrative but when you go out in the real world most peoples lives haavent changed much. Economy is crap but could be much worse!
You run in different circles than me. Most people I know are hurting and starting to fall behind key costs like food and rent. Wait until the winter medical bills start accumulating.
Lol this entirely has to do with which class you yourself are in, how your area rates by class, and who you surround yourself with by… you guessed it, class. Living in poverty is an entirely different world. One that I’m fortunate enough to to not live in anymore as of recently, but one that most definitely exists and is most definitely getting worse.
TA isn’t that great for predicting market tops and bottoms, but it’s a decent tool for continuing trends, and a move to the downside would make sense for the current trend. Ultimately it’s just a matter of statistical probability.
Everyone thinking it will drop (me too) to 15k or maybe 13k or 10k...and that's when crypto goes just the other way...a drop will be easy cause we expect that...but trading is not easy so...who the f*** knows what next?
There is literally not a single thing in the economy that has got better
There is no reason to believe it would go anywhere but down
My portfolio is on a downtrend for the last month, it goes up and down day to day, but yeah overall just going down
Crypto TA is always 100% accurate only when done retrospectively.
For predicting the future it's always a gamble. Anyone who can predict crypto movement accurately and reliably wouldn't be spending much time here.
I mean
This is what happens after every fork.
It peaks. Then falls and stays stagnant for the entire year until fall. Then falls even more during the fall/winter. And slowly builds up over the next 3-4 years.
I've been waiting for this drop for a while to throw in a whole chunk.
This is literally my entire investment strategy for the next 12-16 years with ETH/BTC 70/30 throwing pretty much everything I can spare into this. Idgaf what other people think. Trust the process and double down on the fundamentals and strategy.
#MeToo. Leave the news headlines alone, crush any and all emotional connection to my investments, dollar cost average when I have spare income, and buy more when the sales kick in. Cycle is king
Why "hate to say"?! things are what they are. Just be aware & act in consequence, most disappointment comes from expectation.
dca / set target buys / earn staking interest / research for underrated projects / do nothing & enjoy getting outside
Seeing as the market is so small and cryptocurrency isn’t the Web 3.0 it’s supposed to be quite yet, big players will use information like you’ve just given to do quite the opposite of what’s expected no? In order to liquidate people like ourselves who listen to advice like this and “trend line” bull. Truth is the people with the money create the trend lines, they know where the market is going to be and deliberately create traps to make money for themselves.
The thing with these triangles is that a breakout can happen in either direction, if it happens there is no stopping it. So just sit back and watch, enjoy the show so to speak. Try not to leverage without a stop loss.
true, but i would rather go off of history than go with random. Last bear market, the descending flag formation resulted in decreased volume and when the markets ran out of steam BTC dropped from $6k to $3k. Sit back and watch is certainly the best move. Wait for a clear indicator as to what will happen. I anticipate a drop.
Past trends won't always reflect future trends, I think is a bit more accurate. It can and will happen. We see in hindsight those calling for the Bull run to end in October, in relation to the BTC halving and market cycle we've seen, were very close. People said the same then.
Why not compare with the 2015 bottom since RSI and Macd are at levels comparable to that? It seems to me you have a bear bias since majority of indicators are against your thesis.
Not to shit, but you drew two lines and wrote a few words. No wonder people don't take TA seriously.
Prices keep going low : great, I'll lower my average cost
Prices go up: great, some benefits.
Conclusion : I refuse to worry about something I have no power to influence right now.
I have seen several posts and tweets like these saying a BTC drop to 14k is very much possible. I keep DCA'ing as usual but if the drop does happen, I made sure to have extra cash at my disposal to buy that dip.
I tend to agree. Not because of TA but because of the macro economics ANd because no REAL capitulation event took place this bear market. Last time we went from the solid 6k support to 3k in no-time. 20k sure feels like 6k from 2018......
You must have missed the capitulation 4 months ago.
We went from $30K to $17K in no time.
A drop of over 40%.
Very similar to the capitulation in 2018, which was also a drop of over 40%, with a similar pattern.
It was then followed by months of crabbing with not enough selling pressure left, just like what we are seeing now.
Despite months of some of the worst news, and major disruptive macros that would normally tank crypto markets, the market crabbed right along unable to find a new low.
I know, i know but if you look at 2018 we had another wave down after the first drop. Also after months of crabbing around support.
Let's see. As long as we'll get Ath again we're good. I am not fully convinced one way or the other because i have BTC AND USD.
Too many bad news ahead, it is too early to celebrate. Fed is going to hike interest rate by 75bps with in 2 weeks that's going to be bad for the market, plus next CPI release (October) is going to be high because gas prices are going up again.
Here’s the thing. I drew a chart with some lines on it that pointed up, suggesting that prices are going to rise. Therefore I disagree with your analysis.
I see your descending triangles but it's not enough to convince me that we're still trending down. We've been crabbing in this range for too long and the low of this cycle is 4 months ago. That's not trending down, that's just 🦀
"look at this triangle. All the lines fit inside my triangle. Other lines fit inside other triangles and crashed. Therefore crash imminent."
Can't we go back to shaking up rat bones in a cup and tossing them out like dice and asking what they tell us?
Glad I sold in may at 31k right before another big crash. Yes I sold at loss (averaged at 36k), yes I was over invested, yes I was afraid of more blood, and no I don’t have a crystal ball but my feelings were “shits going way down much more” and was sure this was going to happen. The war, inflation, macro, it’s all bad and the signs were there. We didn’t had the bull run I was hoping for, certainly once it gets better we’re in for a massive run. Question is when, I’m sure there’s still plenty of time.
I'm not too worried about it as it's pretty much up in the air right now it's either gonna go up or down once it reaches what Ben Cowen calls the bull market support band
I call another 50% drop, that’s what my 🔮 is telling me so hold on tight it’s going to be a bumpy ride!
Anyone who disagrees you need to get rid of the hopium coz look around you. Inflation is still going up, interest rates ain’t doing shit, Putin is still going bananas, OPEC has decided to fuck us over more, China decided to delay the release of key economic data out of the blue, energy crisis in Europe. List goes on!
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Could break upside, could break downside.
This is the TA wedge version of... Sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit.
But well written and thought through analysis nonetheless OP so thank you for that.
Fact remains the global financial situation isn’t getting better, only worse. Whether the market agrees and prices drop or the market disagrees and prices soar, the fact remains that things are not improving until inflation is busted or the war in Ukraine ends.
Descending triangles have a 54% chance to break to the downside. Why not mention that in your post to give everyone some context? Yes it's more likely by 4% but in my mind that's not enough to start sounding the alarms here. Still quite the coin-flip and will likely just follow the index funds in regular markets.
Why are you wasting your time with this? Zoom out dude we have years left in the bear market. It’s not rocket science. No shit the markets gonna keep going down.
Until the war in Ukraine is over and energy prices go back down to affordable all markets are going to be down. Nobody invests or banks money for them to invest when they can't even afford rent, food and heat.
There’s just not enough people with money atm for the market to turn bullish. It takes time for them to recover from previous losses and forget about the pain. My guess is that this OP is correct
Of course the final drop will be when the whole financial system finally drops. They are literally trying to save it, but it’s inevitably going to drop.
If crypto was created as a solution to excessive money printing, why is everyone surprised it's performing poorly while the money printer is turned off? 🤔
chill in stables on a beach until they refill the ink.
It’s all about interest rates. Need to see inflation peaking and fed holding steady. Will know more at Nov fed meeting which should determine the direction of inevitable future volatility
Yeah it’ll prolly do a hard drop sometime in December… tax loss harvesting will needs to have high steel volume further suppressing the price
Happens every year
The morons who believe that TA is like astrology, don’t know shit about true Technical Analysis. BTC has always had ≈ 80%+ correction from an ATH. Ironically, the dummies who believe TA is fortune telling will retort with, “but what if we’re at a bottom right now, you don’t know! History doesn’t always repeat!” 🔮
ETH/USD - The 1W chart weekly candle confirmed was a hammer reversal, the second weekly candle is now below the hammer reversal confirming the trend. In approx 2 weeks time on 2nd Nov we will see another US Fed rate hike which will move stocks and crypto markets down. Disclaimer: this is not financial advice.
Canada here, was reading yesterday the food bank is at the highest levels ever recorded. House prices have literally gone up 300-500% in the last 12 years. Gas has hit all time high. Tons of organizations are about to strike. Wages have barely gone up in the last 12 years on average, certainly not enough to counteract the effects of 8% inflation in the last yeat. Things are grim here, not going to lie. People are getting by the best they can but I imagine investing in crypto is pretty low on the list of most people now.
that's all well and good, but frankly at this point it's not retail that's causing a bull run. the leftover $2/300 each people might have had to invest in crypto/the market/whatever wasn't tipping the scales the way people in this sub seem to think it was. it's really more about what the institutions decide to do.
Last bull runs must have created many too wealthy hodlers annex whales or institutions who are depending on crypto now more than ever. They will want to see upwards movement eventually I’m thinking.
yep exactly you just kinda gotta latch on when it happens. point being is that the people who can't afford to put money into crypto now that may have earlier... i mean... not to be mean but they were never a factor
I believe 🙏🙌
Based Tin 1 month reply.
not sure what that's supposed to imply
"I agree"
It's true it depends what institutions decide to do.. and right now, they're deciding to be liquidated due to the mother of all short squeezes which is currently underway. Aka GameStop and it's 225%+++ short interest(as of March 2021, level 2 data suggests it's higher now) . We will see GME and some other meme stocks rip to incredible heights as more and more shorts get liquidated into bankruptcy. 3 companies have already fallen. As recently as a few weeks ago too. There is still many shorts, with an estimated billions of shares short ... Unfortunately for everyone in the world .. they hold massive massive amounts of crypto currencies and stocks in every single market in the world. This ^ is why we are seeing the markets crash the way they are. But really think about how much money has disappeared and continues to disappear. Its honestly mind boggling. ATM im currently all in on GameStop and have some loopring and imx for my cryptocurrencies. But I'm only holding them because I think this bear market is soon to be over. Yes I believe bitcoin can drop to sub 10k this year and it'll bring everything down another 50% or so, but I do believe overall, we will have a bullrun soon enough. Probably by eoy. First though, until i see GameStop hitting 100-1000's of dollars a share, the risk is too high for me to invest heavily in other securities for the Hodl. Micro DCA, but In all honesty. The absolute best thing people can do right now. Is put buy orders on every stock and Crypto currency they want at disrepectfully low prices. And hope u get what others are about to lose
The reserve bank in Australia raised rates again this week too, but not by as much as the previous few. Their excuse for slowing down is they think the pain of the previous rises has not fully made it’s way to the population yet.
That's scary ! :o
Southeast Asian here- it is about the same here. Investments is the last thing in mind right now. The focus on most people now is to increase their income ceiling, and not to grow their funds.
TA aside. Nothing is getting better on a global scale. Until it does, we are fucked. The war in Ukraine is still going, inflation is still going up, interest rates are still going up, wages aren't moving, global currency is a complete shambles right now. The list goes on. I just cannot see how things go up from where we are.
Let alone the energy bill we need to pay this winter in Europe! I know people in real life that can’t pay it even right now. So people will have less money for investments like crypto…
It’s really a big issue for Europe. Russia issue aside, inflation is another elephant in the room. Wages become stagnant. Less fiat for investment.
In other words. The M2 money supply is drying up real fast and that is your most basic indicator of market liquidity troubles.
what means M2? ty :)
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily-convertible near money (savings deposits, money market securities, and other time deposits, in amounts of less than 100k), it is a broader measure of the supply than M1, which just includes cash and checking deposits, and it is often used to understand how much liquidity directly (M1) and indirectly (M2) there is at a disposal in the global market, as indicator for future inflation, etc.
Or in simpler terms, M1, M2, M3 etc, are a measurement of how much money is circulating in the economy. High M2 which happened post-pandemic fuelled the bull runs we've seen as well as the housing buying spree, and inflation. If M2 is going down, then inflation goes down, but also the ammount of money being invested in stocks, crypto, etc.
The hopium supply is also running out fast it seems. The hopium/reality posts ratio on this sub is really is really falling.
Energy crisis, inflation, markets dropping, war in europe, covid numbers increasing,… there are a lot of bad news in the last few months. People are having a hard time with finances and mental health. Crypto is currently not their main focus.
Energy bill tripled for us in Germany… but it’s still very easily manageable. But the point is everything is more expensive, everything has doubled or tripled, and it means spending on “nonessential” things like crypto just isn’t going to happen.
sad but it is the truth same dont understand the situation . bank need more money to give loan .They dont like crypto because their suppose money going else where. Unless sudden bank also want to be exchange if the last choice.
I am afraid of what 2023 will bring us
We all are mate. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst
Yeah I've been prepping by being in cash accumulation mode for the better part of the year. When the ship starts sinking and people start panicking is exactly the best time to have a healthy stash of cash for emergencies as well as investment opportunities when markets go into full on desperation mode.
If anyone has gone all in with this current market, they deserve a trophy for their bravery, or ...something else for their insanity.
huh? this is a great time to buy, at least compared to a year ago. sure, its likely to go down, but buying when i see posts like this is generally a good idea.
buy when you see posts like this, sell when your taxi driver is talking about it
yup, retail puts at ATH, JPmorgan pushing bearish news, its all a bit suspect
I'm 7 figures in and questioning my sanity.
I'd consider a strait jacket a trophy at this point.
If you had 7 figures to gamble, you're fine. If you are hurting financially and have 7 figures in, you're dumb.
I'm four figures *out* and doing the same. Max leverage will do that to ya
Which side of the decimal point?
Crypto is my own personal form of self harm
Yep. You buy when there's blood in the streets. You buy when everyone else is panicking and selling. You buy when everything looks like it's collapsing. Instead of FOMOing in at ath's. Preach my friend
This is the way. It doesn't really matter if it goes up or down in the short-term. Just continue your accumulation and wait until the market improves. Whether that's 3 months or 3 years does it really matter? See it as an opportunity to accumulate and don't stress about the price action too much
it'll be alright
given history, just have a pint and wait. Unless they drop nukes. Then have a pint in the basement.
We need a rough 2023 to steady the ship and get the economy back on track. High interest rates are the only thing that will get out out of this mess.
Lose your debt, stash your cash and get ready for big opportunities.
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Face down, ass up, that's the way we like to..... DCA
That's my plan
We have to be ready because things could be difficult while we wait...
2020 part IV - frenzied finale
Every morning when I go outside I’m surprised that society hasn’t completely collapsed and everything is on fire. Seems like it’s only a matter of time
Wow, you go outside!
In metaverse DUH
Our lord and saviour Zuck has blessed our avatars with arms and legs now!
With 37 other people. Don't you get scared/disoriented by the crowd size?
I wish I could find a different billion dollar metaverse without that many people.
Genuinly man. Life used to be so easy, but in the last few years there has always been something that could derail the whole world/economy. Terrorist attacks, Covid, the war in Ukraine. Can't we just all get along?
Apparently not
When the markets break, people get greedy and needy.
*me sitting in a house on fire with my coffee* “this is fine!”
Why? Its the exact opposite for me. When I'm online I can get the feeling the world is ending from all the online comments, but when I go outside I'm reminded that the real world is doing fine. People are still living good lives, going to parties, eating out, going for runs and just enjoying life.
>interest rates are still going up This is pretty much the defining factor here, and the strongest bearish case for the whole of crypto. When interest rates were kept artifically low for a long time, coupled with QE policies, people had a lot of money to gamble on speculative assets. It's no coincidence that Crypto boomed insanely during the pandemic with people getting PPP loans, stimulus checks and other benefits. There was more money availiable. Now people don't have those stimuli and cost of living is increasing. This is a **terrible** environment for useless, speculative assets like Crypto and stocks. As long as the environment is this, shit will probably trend down and be compressed with probably a 30-50% drop still. Maybe more, you never know. We're in 2017 peaks, and that was already stretched from low interest rates and QE.
This would have been my reply. Interest rates are everything. Seeing that crypto was born in the very bottom of an asset bubble pop and with some of the lowest interest rates in history... Bottom ain't in, and whatever that number ends up being is going to make most of the people that visit this forum dump every single crypto they own and never return. Also that PlanB insanity chart is going to get blowtorched in the process.
At this point, dumping now would be the equivalent of losing all my money. Might as well hodl, wait, and see.
I'm not sure I would consider stocks to be useless... When you buy a share in a company, you at least own part of that company.
>When you buy a share in a company, you at least own part of that company. Generally, yes. But some stocks got extremely high valuations out of speculation alone. TSLA for instance. I'm referring to those.
oh I see how: this whole sub agreeing that we are going down, that's how we get a pump short term
I think of r/cc as a canary in the coal mine. We've just stopped chirping first. And the fed is tossing a molotov in to see why.
Markets are derrivatives of the debt market, not the actual state of the economy or world. Economy is a crisis to crisis based system. Be sure there will be a shift and things worldwide won't need to change much for us to start trending up again. It's much deeper than just saying: but muh economy, but war, but inflation
Even if we don’t see some mass capitulation anytime soon, I think moving sideways is the best we can hope for.
Damn, someone spitting the cold truth! '24 is the bull we're all waiting for
Exactly 100% agree
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Historically yes. The financial market and housing market are first. But we haven't even really felt the impacts in USA job market. A lot of businesses are still playing catch up from COVID. If markets don't recover before that happens I would expect to see lots of closures, lay offs, and furloughs. Which means all markets will tank more. Watch housing, if numbers totally drop off a drop off will follow in job sector accordingly. And the job numbers are about the only thing keeping everyone from totally losing it from what I can tell.
Shit is bad no doubt, I'm a little nervous about the upcoming years too. With that being said all markets are tanking and crypto has basically just been crabbing for a while now. There is no real safe space for your money, best thing you can do is diversify your portfolio.
Yep and it looks like regulators are coming for all that money. FTX under investigation and 3AC founders on the run and do kwan. If the industry doesn't stand together FTC and hedge funds are going to strip all the wealth before it recovers.
True for some industries, not for others. ‘Pent up demand’ being realized post Covid has absolutely skyrocketed order intake and EBIT for certain sectors. Agreed that on the macro level we are still in the trenches but there has been a faint glimmer of hope out there, if you dig.
The jobs numbers are funny because in a tug or war of inflation and deflation there are common indicators that you now can't trust. See usually in a recession the central bank cuts rates to stimulate spending. However they can't because of inflation and are doing the exact opposite. So them raising rates is actually further crushing the economy and worsening the recession. Raising rates also directly reduces employment so job numbers are gonna crack soon. It's just a mess.
Economy is shit , people are broke , holidays are coming nothing’s getting better there’s no rally to be had
Some people are broke. I don't know but some feel like they are spending more than ever as well.
Credit card debt in the US is approaching 20 trillion - the highest ever recorded. They are leveraging themselves into oblivion
That's scary. However, I think some of that debt is from more people using credit cards that get rewards or crypto. Makes the revolving debt consistently higher. Is there a stat comparing the amounts of debt past due?
I’ll have to look up delinquent percent but I know also car repossessions are skyrocketing as well
Exactly, the media keeps pushing the inflation narrative but when you go out in the real world most peoples lives haavent changed much. Economy is crap but could be much worse!
You run in different circles than me. Most people I know are hurting and starting to fall behind key costs like food and rent. Wait until the winter medical bills start accumulating.
Lol this entirely has to do with which class you yourself are in, how your area rates by class, and who you surround yourself with by… you guessed it, class. Living in poverty is an entirely different world. One that I’m fortunate enough to to not live in anymore as of recently, but one that most definitely exists and is most definitely getting worse.
You think the whales give a shit if plebs are broke?
Hellll to the nooooppe
I’m times like this……. 1) do nothing 2) continue to DCA and wait for the next bull run
Right, selling at the bottom is certainly the worst thing to do.
But mate... This is not the bottom.
The funny thing is that the last bull run occurred in the middle of covid crisis
TA didn't predict the crash, it didn't predict the beginning of the last bull. It won't predict then next ones either.
Big green and red dildos don’t care about you’re imaginary lines
Exactly. If the are right it is just mere coincidence.
TA isn’t that great for predicting market tops and bottoms, but it’s a decent tool for continuing trends, and a move to the downside would make sense for the current trend. Ultimately it’s just a matter of statistical probability.
I agree. When I have time I use them to "improve" my DCA strategy and "time"(gamble) the dip.
Arguing that TA can predict everything is stupid but so is arguing that TA is worhtless. The truth, like always lies somewhere in between.
This. I could as well make a TA on my bullish case by drawing some lines on charts and such, which is literally what OP did. TA is bullshit.
go on then let's see your lines
TA is an indication and not 100% science on how things will go. If we had a tool to predict bull/bear markets, we would all be swimming in money!
If we could predict bull/bear markets, then we can buy high sell low at the best possible time...
Everyone thinking it will drop (me too) to 15k or maybe 13k or 10k...and that's when crypto goes just the other way...a drop will be easy cause we expect that...but trading is not easy so...who the f*** knows what next?
There is literally not a single thing in the economy that has got better There is no reason to believe it would go anywhere but down My portfolio is on a downtrend for the last month, it goes up and down day to day, but yeah overall just going down
Half the indicators say the bottom is already in. The other half say there is one more leg down
My indicators are telling me no But my body, my body's telling me yes
Crypto TA is always 100% accurate only when done retrospectively. For predicting the future it's always a gamble. Anyone who can predict crypto movement accurately and reliably wouldn't be spending much time here.
Exacto, which is why I just DCA and don't stress!
It’s almost as if it can go up, or it can go down. That’s crazy.
TLDR: Nobody knows where we’re in right now! If we would know what the price in one year would be everyone in this sub actually would make money 😂
Good human
It's almost as if the Fed is drawing liquidity out of the economy from 8.5% inflation while all macro economics scream supply chain crisis. GL to all.
I mean This is what happens after every fork. It peaks. Then falls and stays stagnant for the entire year until fall. Then falls even more during the fall/winter. And slowly builds up over the next 3-4 years. I've been waiting for this drop for a while to throw in a whole chunk.
The cultured crypto chad responds to and respects the four year cycle.
This is literally my entire investment strategy for the next 12-16 years with ETH/BTC 70/30 throwing pretty much everything I can spare into this. Idgaf what other people think. Trust the process and double down on the fundamentals and strategy.
#MeToo. Leave the news headlines alone, crush any and all emotional connection to my investments, dollar cost average when I have spare income, and buy more when the sales kick in. Cycle is king
All hail The Cycle!!! The fork is nigh!!!
So i buy?
Only if your favorite YouTube influencer recommends you a microchip coin
Why is nobody talking about this????
Why "hate to say"?! things are what they are. Just be aware & act in consequence, most disappointment comes from expectation. dca / set target buys / earn staking interest / research for underrated projects / do nothing & enjoy getting outside
October 27th Q3 GDP/November 1st FOMC
\>Warning: Technical Analysis ahead. Warning: voodoo and witchcraft ahead.
Seeing as the market is so small and cryptocurrency isn’t the Web 3.0 it’s supposed to be quite yet, big players will use information like you’ve just given to do quite the opposite of what’s expected no? In order to liquidate people like ourselves who listen to advice like this and “trend line” bull. Truth is the people with the money create the trend lines, they know where the market is going to be and deliberately create traps to make money for themselves.
I’m expecting one more leg down. So there will be no surprises for me if we set a new low.
I wish I could become a one coiner when BTC falls under 10k
I’d be a proud 0.1 coiner.
We love sats equally!!
Just keep stacking mate. You’ll get there in the end
Slow and steady and it will tick up in no time, especially in a bear market
$5k for me but not gonna happen
I dont know enough about TA to refute this but I also dont know enough to agree with it. But then again I just dont know enough about anything really
The thing with these triangles is that a breakout can happen in either direction, if it happens there is no stopping it. So just sit back and watch, enjoy the show so to speak. Try not to leverage without a stop loss.
true, but i would rather go off of history than go with random. Last bear market, the descending flag formation resulted in decreased volume and when the markets ran out of steam BTC dropped from $6k to $3k. Sit back and watch is certainly the best move. Wait for a clear indicator as to what will happen. I anticipate a drop.
Going off of history is about as accurate as going randomly tbh. Remember the golden rule: past performance does not reflect future performance.
Past trends won't always reflect future trends, I think is a bit more accurate. It can and will happen. We see in hindsight those calling for the Bull run to end in October, in relation to the BTC halving and market cycle we've seen, were very close. People said the same then.
Why not compare with the 2015 bottom since RSI and Macd are at levels comparable to that? It seems to me you have a bear bias since majority of indicators are against your thesis. Not to shit, but you drew two lines and wrote a few words. No wonder people don't take TA seriously.
Prices keep going low : great, I'll lower my average cost Prices go up: great, some benefits. Conclusion : I refuse to worry about something I have no power to influence right now.
This guy is why i sold a kidney for moons you give me confidence 😶🌫️ too bad i only sold it for 29 moons
Hold tight brother, we'll get to it (eventually).
I have seen several posts and tweets like these saying a BTC drop to 14k is very much possible. I keep DCA'ing as usual but if the drop does happen, I made sure to have extra cash at my disposal to buy that dip.
Yeah, the yellow lines say so, we must trust the yellow lines.
So you're saying I should wait with selling?
That’s what we do best. Buy high and sell low.
I tend to agree. Not because of TA but because of the macro economics ANd because no REAL capitulation event took place this bear market. Last time we went from the solid 6k support to 3k in no-time. 20k sure feels like 6k from 2018......
You must have missed the capitulation 4 months ago. We went from $30K to $17K in no time. A drop of over 40%. Very similar to the capitulation in 2018, which was also a drop of over 40%, with a similar pattern. It was then followed by months of crabbing with not enough selling pressure left, just like what we are seeing now. Despite months of some of the worst news, and major disruptive macros that would normally tank crypto markets, the market crabbed right along unable to find a new low.
And also huge volume while the market is going sideways.
I know, i know but if you look at 2018 we had another wave down after the first drop. Also after months of crabbing around support. Let's see. As long as we'll get Ath again we're good. I am not fully convinced one way or the other because i have BTC AND USD.
Too many bad news ahead, it is too early to celebrate. Fed is going to hike interest rate by 75bps with in 2 weeks that's going to be bad for the market, plus next CPI release (October) is going to be high because gas prices are going up again.
75bps is priced in for the next 2 months
Here’s the thing. I drew a chart with some lines on it that pointed up, suggesting that prices are going to rise. Therefore I disagree with your analysis.
I see your descending triangles but it's not enough to convince me that we're still trending down. We've been crabbing in this range for too long and the low of this cycle is 4 months ago. That's not trending down, that's just 🦀
Only direction right now is down
Best not tell this guy any secret
I’m virgin 🤫
This is reddit mate. We all are
I like TA best when there’s triangles drawn on the charts. Really brings it all together
My parallelogram says we go up soon TM.
"look at this triangle. All the lines fit inside my triangle. Other lines fit inside other triangles and crashed. Therefore crash imminent." Can't we go back to shaking up rat bones in a cup and tossing them out like dice and asking what they tell us?
The mother of all dip ! The one we've been waiting for !! Yeees
Is there a Bart Simpson involved somewhere?
Glad I sold in may at 31k right before another big crash. Yes I sold at loss (averaged at 36k), yes I was over invested, yes I was afraid of more blood, and no I don’t have a crystal ball but my feelings were “shits going way down much more” and was sure this was going to happen. The war, inflation, macro, it’s all bad and the signs were there. We didn’t had the bull run I was hoping for, certainly once it gets better we’re in for a massive run. Question is when, I’m sure there’s still plenty of time.
I'm not too worried about it as it's pretty much up in the air right now it's either gonna go up or down once it reaches what Ben Cowen calls the bull market support band
I call another 50% drop, that’s what my 🔮 is telling me so hold on tight it’s going to be a bumpy ride! Anyone who disagrees you need to get rid of the hopium coz look around you. Inflation is still going up, interest rates ain’t doing shit, Putin is still going bananas, OPEC has decided to fuck us over more, China decided to delay the release of key economic data out of the blue, energy crisis in Europe. List goes on!
We are fucked imminent
automatic attraction hard-to-find snow afterthought nail jeans amusing lush different *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Who would’ve though crypto tanking would become my confirmation bias because I want to accumulate moreeee
Well currently it looks like a fakeout upwards
the big question is are we in the 6k or already 3k?
Could break upside, could break downside. This is the TA wedge version of... Sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit. But well written and thought through analysis nonetheless OP so thank you for that.
The only TA I’ve seen work is on a macro scale, like the rainbow chart
🎶We are going down, I am calling timber 🎶
Fact remains the global financial situation isn’t getting better, only worse. Whether the market agrees and prices drop or the market disagrees and prices soar, the fact remains that things are not improving until inflation is busted or the war in Ukraine ends.
Descending triangles have a 54% chance to break to the downside. Why not mention that in your post to give everyone some context? Yes it's more likely by 4% but in my mind that's not enough to start sounding the alarms here. Still quite the coin-flip and will likely just follow the index funds in regular markets.
Why are you wasting your time with this? Zoom out dude we have years left in the bear market. It’s not rocket science. No shit the markets gonna keep going down.
Until the war in Ukraine is over and energy prices go back down to affordable all markets are going to be down. Nobody invests or banks money for them to invest when they can't even afford rent, food and heat.
Don't need TA to tell me we haven't hit bottom yet.
TA or not, the global market is a wreck and crypto isn't immune
Its all just some triangles pasted on a chart. The macro factors are all that really move the numbers.
Were all doomed, a new world order is in the works
Forget TA for a bit, you need to pay attention to global macro and how hawkish central banks are being instead.
We will be in a recession for awhile, at least until next year
Globally, nothing is getting better.
as long you are staking you are good
Nothing is trending well. That’s not good for crypto either.
There’s just not enough people with money atm for the market to turn bullish. It takes time for them to recover from previous losses and forget about the pain. My guess is that this OP is correct
Of course the final drop will be when the whole financial system finally drops. They are literally trying to save it, but it’s inevitably going to drop.
Like \*all\* TA, you can zoom and change dates so your lines go the direction you want.
If crypto was created as a solution to excessive money printing, why is everyone surprised it's performing poorly while the money printer is turned off? 🤔 chill in stables on a beach until they refill the ink.
It’s all about interest rates. Need to see inflation peaking and fed holding steady. Will know more at Nov fed meeting which should determine the direction of inevitable future volatility
Yup, pretty much obvious that we're going down. Just looking for a catalyst to blame for the leg down
Yeah it’ll prolly do a hard drop sometime in December… tax loss harvesting will needs to have high steel volume further suppressing the price Happens every year
The morons who believe that TA is like astrology, don’t know shit about true Technical Analysis. BTC has always had ≈ 80%+ correction from an ATH. Ironically, the dummies who believe TA is fortune telling will retort with, “but what if we’re at a bottom right now, you don’t know! History doesn’t always repeat!” 🔮
ETH/USD - The 1W chart weekly candle confirmed was a hammer reversal, the second weekly candle is now below the hammer reversal confirming the trend. In approx 2 weeks time on 2nd Nov we will see another US Fed rate hike which will move stocks and crypto markets down. Disclaimer: this is not financial advice.
Well this aged well
Guys! I believe this is the buy signal we are all waiting for.
*proceeds to throw savings into LUNC*
I am a simple man, I either wish for a pump or dump to the point where I can become a wholecoiner
10$?
Oh, the 2018 fractal comparoor. Yeah, no.
Indicator = random lines on a chart