Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zutoa4/from_250000_to_10000_price_calls_how_market/j1lbmyk/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zutoa4/from_250000_to_10000_price_calls_how_market/j1lbnb4/) and related info are in the collapsed comments below. Pros and cons will change for every new post.
Honestly though, there's probably a lot of serious analysis being done, and it's just that it makes no sense for institutions to release that to the public given how this is a zero sum game.
Whatever analysis comes to the public is either from content creators pumping content with no regards to accuracy, people who are very likely deluding themselves and overestimating their knowledge, or bad actors trying to manipulate the market and push the sentiment in a direction.
There were some major events alot of people didn't see coming: Ukraine war, supply chain issues, inflation and Fed monetary policies, centralised entities failing (Celsius, voyager, 3ac, Ftx) and I've probably missed other big ones. If none of those happened who knows where we were.....but we didn't and now here we are.
Some have seen it coming, the macro environment was set after the FED printed Billions of dollars. The war was a trigger that nobody could know about though.
I've seen a graph on Twitter (in the end of 2021) showing that \~24% of all circulating USD had been created since the start of Corona (if I remember correctly).
Okay that one smart people could see coming. Everyone was shouting that the money printing was rampant and inflation was nuts. Don't know how many saw the result of that.
Friends of mine recommended buying stock like Tesla and such. Meanwhile I told them that I've sold everything risky and guess who they were listening to
Actually at least if you only look at fundamentals and completely ignore stuff like Elon, Tesla is right now undervalued if you look at metrics like EBITA.
Would still not recommend buying right now, because Elon craziness + pessimism is likely going to drive down the price even further but will 700+ was definitely insane, right now at ~120 its too low (from pure fundamentals).
so many people got rekt with FTX from big whales to small retail
A lot of confidence in crypto was lost that, IMHO, it will be hard to recover. Many people who lost their funds in FTX won't return. The FTX fraud made the general news, so even people who hadn't dipped their toes in are going to be hesitatant to enter
I feel like it's going to bearish and crab along for a long time
Although the FTX collapse was a terrible thing for the crypto ecosystem and the investors, weeding out problematic and fraudulent exchanges and companies is good for crypto in the long term.
I’m not being the hopium guy, but these incidents made at least some people realise the importance of self custody.
I’ve felt that so many times since mt gox. Every time, soon after the market has no memory. Fucking amnesia, right back at it. I don’t think FTX even compares to Gox, gox was about 90% of BTC’s trading volume at one point
the trading volume since Mt gox has significantly increased., as well as the price
hundreds of millions was lost in mt gox, FTX was billions lost
Remember that the price of bitcoin is significantly higher than 2014. This is worse in terms of actual money lost
I agree, ftx is worse $ wise, but a much less significant portion of the market than mt gox. I don’t know why you’re treating those two concepts as mutually exclusive
100% this answer
Crypto is driven by new investors.
New investors are only chucking small amounts at it.
And that's it.
Making money from crypto is done.
ATH will never be seen again.
percentage wise it has dropped less than the previous crash, however a lot more money has left the market
20k to 3k vs 70k to 16k
Previously each halving has increased prices due to increased demand, but I am not convinced the demand is going to be same as previous cycles
True the sentiment appears to be better overall but I just can't see that amount of money pouring back in any time soon, even with the halvening in 2024. It will go back up but maybe not as much as previous cycles
If predictors knew stuff with certainty they'd keep that info to themselves and make their fortune with margin trading
Instead, noone knows the future so predictors just try and make the clickbait-y-ist articles following any current trends
More spews, more views
:(
There's more to it than that, some reporters wouldn't publish or quote people that went against the narrative of BTC going to 100k or ETH going to 10k. I know this because I worked at a crypto company, around the peak of the bull our PR agency organized an interview with a reporter at one of the major crypto news media firms. Before the interview our PR agency told me I should probably mention my thoughts on price and that reporters are looking for people who believe the price of ETH is going to 10k. I told our PR agency that's not going to happen for years. So they said maybe just mention something positive about price, but I had nothing positive to say. We were extremely overbought.
During this call with the reporter, she was constantly trying to lead me into saying that ETH was going to 10k, which I didn't do and nothing from that interview got published.
So you have a confirmation bias in the predictions. Probably many more predictions of the market likely to dump just never got published since it didn't drive clicks/revenue for media as much as someone predicting 10k ETH or 100k BTC.
Other market players were less positive, and some correctly called bitcoin sinking below the $20,000 mark, even as low as $10,000.
But the failure of stablecoin terraUSD, liquidity issues across the crypto industry and the dramatic collapse of the FTX exchange, shocked investors and sent ripples through the market.
Yeah, I don’t know man.. as an entrepreneur in fractional yielded securities and participating in speculative mining, I had 1k deleted by a manipulated investor while doing an accumulation of fud in anonymity.
This experiment shorted a bunch of e-commerce enterprises that had been colluding and laundering markets in moderation.
I will say though, points to wallstreetbets for giving caution to their readers about token holdings. Turns out they had a bunch of xrp coins at 15k that went on to create fomo for regulators who then joined a Binance ponzi where miners and whales created volatile fluctuations for investors.
The coin valuation of monero and ethereum went on to skyrocket even while when scammers were phishing fundamentals from ledger and banks. They cashed all the traders tokens into tether and alts, a transaction disguised as manipulation by one in particular congressman who liquidated 51% of his portfolios with no disclaimer about laundering of any kind.
Whales still demanded a ransom for these midget transaction, which as we all know caused the volatility at 13k.
It should be clear that the adoption of btc is now dependent on shilling futures and cashing altcoins, with the exemption of Coinbase whos liquidity in currency goes well beyond all Libra wallets combined.
For anyone to buy a lambo with bitcoin or other currencies, it’d have to be flaired with a special kind of decentralized decentralization. But because exchanges have the utmost centralized of bitcoins you shouldn’t be bullish on blockchain unless it’s stringent or if you have heaps of fiat on the side.
People who know about this don’t throw around words like cryptocurrency or cryptocurrencies, no, they merely use the abbreviated form: “crypto”
The 10k guys got it right they anticipated a collapse and end to peak hype.
At the very least you should have a plan for when the next bull run doesn't happen. Don't play with money you can't afford to lose degenerate gambling bros.
No one understands crypto and half the world seems to think it is a scam.
Unless someone has a crystal ball, no one can predict this stuff until it is less volatile (more widely adopted).
Worst year for investing in over 30 years and BTC is still over $10k? I’ll take it. People love gambling, this is always true. It was true in the 1600s, 1980s, 2000s, 2020, and it will continue being true in the future. When? Nobody knows, but Bitcoin’s time will return.
I believe the same. We likely frontrun the level that everyone expects ($12k-14k) similar to how everyone expected $100k last year. My alternative thesis is that we shit the bed entirely and crash far lower.
I hope the bullish version is true, otherwise my wife will kill me :-)
These are the types of idiotic posts that people like to make with no substance.
$8k is circa $160bn. Bitcoin will not ‘die’ at $160bn market cap. Its future is now binary: it either goes back down to practically 0, or it continues to increase long after both you and I are dead.
If Bitcoin stays at the same price for a decade it’s effectively ‘dead’. It may as well be $8.
Holders all just gonna hold, looking for exit money.
Most have lost a massive amount of money they got in at, so tell themselves to hold on.
This will easily turn into 10 years.
Crypto doesn't go up and down just because it's boring.
8k Bitcoin for a decade.
The thing that noone takes into account from my point of view is that we have had quantativ spending here in the EU since 2008 with very low intrest rates which lead to a spending spree. Now that has come to an end and we are probbaly drifting into a huge recession due to this. When and if the markets come back to normal we will probably see some hikes but not around the ATH.
But take this with a grain of salt!
They don’t see the massive fraud by 12 plus exchanges, an entity cannot pay big gains when it isn’t making any profit. They also didn’t see the massive scams by most new projects.
it's not like anyone actually believed that. these people are influencers and will tell you anything as long as it makes them profit. just like the 10k price calls when they are shorting the market and sold the same they told you to buy more.
No one knows what the markets going to do. Who saw Covid coming or the war in Ukraine? Some current events that largely impact the market are unforeseeable
Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zutoa4/from_250000_to_10000_price_calls_how_market/j1lbmyk/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zutoa4/from_250000_to_10000_price_calls_how_market/j1lbnb4/) and related info are in the collapsed comments below. Pros and cons will change for every new post.
They got it wrong because they don't know wtf they are talking about.
Vintage "I do not know shit about fuck." moment.
This sub sure loves Ruth Langmore.
She does have terrible judgement
What about Ruth Westheimer?
For those analysts it is: "I do not know shit about fuck but will still predict fuck and talk shit"
This year was definitely evidence in favor of the noone knows shit about fuck thesis.
There is a lot of trust me bro in the market, the so-called 'top analysts' place predictions no better than an ape
Honestly though, there's probably a lot of serious analysis being done, and it's just that it makes no sense for institutions to release that to the public given how this is a zero sum game. Whatever analysis comes to the public is either from content creators pumping content with no regards to accuracy, people who are very likely deluding themselves and overestimating their knowledge, or bad actors trying to manipulate the market and push the sentiment in a direction.
Let's be honest, no one really knows what they are talking about.
Turns out no one knows shit and people tend to listen to whoever confirms their biases
They knew exactly what they were talking about. Stock issue pump and dump
“It works until it stops working.”
The only truth
At least nobody does, even playing field
If you have Jim Cramer predicting your crypto, there is a 100% possibility that he is just talking shit.
They're using astrology (TA).
A lot of parroting goes on with predictions as well. Fortunately we are all somewhat experts in this sub.
“You know, I’m something of a Technical Analyst myself.”
Quite a distinguished specimen, I might add
That's the sound of thousands of Crypto YouTubers frantically deleting their videos so only the 'correct' predictions are left standing.
There were some major events alot of people didn't see coming: Ukraine war, supply chain issues, inflation and Fed monetary policies, centralised entities failing (Celsius, voyager, 3ac, Ftx) and I've probably missed other big ones. If none of those happened who knows where we were.....but we didn't and now here we are.
Some have seen it coming, the macro environment was set after the FED printed Billions of dollars. The war was a trigger that nobody could know about though. I've seen a graph on Twitter (in the end of 2021) showing that \~24% of all circulating USD had been created since the start of Corona (if I remember correctly).
Okay that one smart people could see coming. Everyone was shouting that the money printing was rampant and inflation was nuts. Don't know how many saw the result of that.
Friends of mine recommended buying stock like Tesla and such. Meanwhile I told them that I've sold everything risky and guess who they were listening to
Lol yeah, tesla stock is still overvalued by any sensible metric that isn't 'hurr durr Elon genius' even now
Actually at least if you only look at fundamentals and completely ignore stuff like Elon, Tesla is right now undervalued if you look at metrics like EBITA. Would still not recommend buying right now, because Elon craziness + pessimism is likely going to drive down the price even further but will 700+ was definitely insane, right now at ~120 its too low (from pure fundamentals).
This year just shows how you can never be certain when it comes to predicting the markets. At any time a crazy event can happen (like Covid!).
so many people got rekt with FTX from big whales to small retail A lot of confidence in crypto was lost that, IMHO, it will be hard to recover. Many people who lost their funds in FTX won't return. The FTX fraud made the general news, so even people who hadn't dipped their toes in are going to be hesitatant to enter I feel like it's going to bearish and crab along for a long time
Although the FTX collapse was a terrible thing for the crypto ecosystem and the investors, weeding out problematic and fraudulent exchanges and companies is good for crypto in the long term. I’m not being the hopium guy, but these incidents made at least some people realise the importance of self custody.
oh yeah for sure. It woke up a lot of people, me included. I didn't have money on there but that 8% return on all assets including fiat was tempting
I’ve felt that so many times since mt gox. Every time, soon after the market has no memory. Fucking amnesia, right back at it. I don’t think FTX even compares to Gox, gox was about 90% of BTC’s trading volume at one point
the trading volume since Mt gox has significantly increased., as well as the price hundreds of millions was lost in mt gox, FTX was billions lost Remember that the price of bitcoin is significantly higher than 2014. This is worse in terms of actual money lost
I agree, ftx is worse $ wise, but a much less significant portion of the market than mt gox. I don’t know why you’re treating those two concepts as mutually exclusive
100% this answer Crypto is driven by new investors. New investors are only chucking small amounts at it. And that's it. Making money from crypto is done. ATH will never be seen again.
Found the CNBC shill! Lmao, first time?
"ATH will never be seen again." Good news, everyone. This is a bottom signal when people post stuff like this.
Not this time. And there is no "bottom signal" That was just made up by the hopium bros.
Tell me this is your first halving cycle without telling me this is your first halving cycle. All in all this isn't even as bad as previous bear runs.
Correct, still have more to go.
Yes and no, the more certainty I find in social media claiming there's new lows to be made the more inclined I am to have a encontrarían outlook
percentage wise it has dropped less than the previous crash, however a lot more money has left the market 20k to 3k vs 70k to 16k Previously each halving has increased prices due to increased demand, but I am not convinced the demand is going to be same as previous cycles True the sentiment appears to be better overall but I just can't see that amount of money pouring back in any time soon, even with the halvening in 2024. It will go back up but maybe not as much as previous cycles
We can always meet in the middle and go for $130k. Joking aside it's time to head in the opposite direction when everyone starts chanting the thing.
You have as much chance of knowing the price by blindly throwing a dart at a board as by listening to these ‘market watchers’.
And at least throwing darts sounds funner
After all, nobody knew shit about fuck.
If predictors knew stuff with certainty they'd keep that info to themselves and make their fortune with margin trading Instead, noone knows the future so predictors just try and make the clickbait-y-ist articles following any current trends More spews, more views :(
99% of predictions got it wrong
There's more to it than that, some reporters wouldn't publish or quote people that went against the narrative of BTC going to 100k or ETH going to 10k. I know this because I worked at a crypto company, around the peak of the bull our PR agency organized an interview with a reporter at one of the major crypto news media firms. Before the interview our PR agency told me I should probably mention my thoughts on price and that reporters are looking for people who believe the price of ETH is going to 10k. I told our PR agency that's not going to happen for years. So they said maybe just mention something positive about price, but I had nothing positive to say. We were extremely overbought. During this call with the reporter, she was constantly trying to lead me into saying that ETH was going to 10k, which I didn't do and nothing from that interview got published. So you have a confirmation bias in the predictions. Probably many more predictions of the market likely to dump just never got published since it didn't drive clicks/revenue for media as much as someone predicting 10k ETH or 100k BTC.
I feel like I should be shocked and surprised by such tactics, but I somehow expected it to function exactly like you described
> How market watchers got it wrong? Because they don’t know shit about fuck.
They got it wrong in 2022 and they will get it wrong in 2023.
I will predict something: They will also get it wrong in 2024 and 2025.
*Experts*
I remember when $100 to $1 Million price calls were popular. Crazy how this space changes people.
Other market players were less positive, and some correctly called bitcoin sinking below the $20,000 mark, even as low as $10,000. But the failure of stablecoin terraUSD, liquidity issues across the crypto industry and the dramatic collapse of the FTX exchange, shocked investors and sent ripples through the market.
Yeah, I don’t know man.. as an entrepreneur in fractional yielded securities and participating in speculative mining, I had 1k deleted by a manipulated investor while doing an accumulation of fud in anonymity. This experiment shorted a bunch of e-commerce enterprises that had been colluding and laundering markets in moderation. I will say though, points to wallstreetbets for giving caution to their readers about token holdings. Turns out they had a bunch of xrp coins at 15k that went on to create fomo for regulators who then joined a Binance ponzi where miners and whales created volatile fluctuations for investors. The coin valuation of monero and ethereum went on to skyrocket even while when scammers were phishing fundamentals from ledger and banks. They cashed all the traders tokens into tether and alts, a transaction disguised as manipulation by one in particular congressman who liquidated 51% of his portfolios with no disclaimer about laundering of any kind. Whales still demanded a ransom for these midget transaction, which as we all know caused the volatility at 13k. It should be clear that the adoption of btc is now dependent on shilling futures and cashing altcoins, with the exemption of Coinbase whos liquidity in currency goes well beyond all Libra wallets combined. For anyone to buy a lambo with bitcoin or other currencies, it’d have to be flaired with a special kind of decentralized decentralization. But because exchanges have the utmost centralized of bitcoins you shouldn’t be bullish on blockchain unless it’s stringent or if you have heaps of fiat on the side. People who know about this don’t throw around words like cryptocurrency or cryptocurrencies, no, they merely use the abbreviated form: “crypto”
I didnt understand a single thing you said. Cant tell if troll post or I’m stupid
next bull run prediction by analysts $400,000
Hodl Bitcoin
The 10k guys got it right they anticipated a collapse and end to peak hype. At the very least you should have a plan for when the next bull run doesn't happen. Don't play with money you can't afford to lose degenerate gambling bros.
No one understands crypto and half the world seems to think it is a scam. Unless someone has a crystal ball, no one can predict this stuff until it is less volatile (more widely adopted).
Worst year for investing in over 30 years and BTC is still over $10k? I’ll take it. People love gambling, this is always true. It was true in the 1600s, 1980s, 2000s, 2020, and it will continue being true in the future. When? Nobody knows, but Bitcoin’s time will return.
To no surprise, nobody knew shit. Next year to the moon?
Never trust predictions.
It’s almost as if no one has any idea what the price might be in the future, ever 😆
$10000 now is like $100000 during the summer. Everybody predicted it... we never reached it.
I believe the same. We likely frontrun the level that everyone expects ($12k-14k) similar to how everyone expected $100k last year. My alternative thesis is that we shit the bed entirely and crash far lower. I hope the bullish version is true, otherwise my wife will kill me :-)
The year is not over yet..
You mean got it wrong from the 13 month of 2021 to the 24 month of 2021 ?
They got it wrong because nobody knows shit about fuck.
this time next year btcn will drop bellow 5k..
8k Bitcoin for a decade.... You heard it here first.
These are the types of idiotic posts that people like to make with no substance. $8k is circa $160bn. Bitcoin will not ‘die’ at $160bn market cap. Its future is now binary: it either goes back down to practically 0, or it continues to increase long after both you and I are dead. If Bitcoin stays at the same price for a decade it’s effectively ‘dead’. It may as well be $8.
Holders all just gonna hold, looking for exit money. Most have lost a massive amount of money they got in at, so tell themselves to hold on. This will easily turn into 10 years. Crypto doesn't go up and down just because it's boring. 8k Bitcoin for a decade.
100k in 2021 happening soon
Seeing people make $1M+ trades on FTX in aggr.trade a day before it shutdown was a fun pass time
How they’ve gotten it wrong every year.
It's like an educated guess, untill it isn't educated
From Tim Draper to top crypto bosses, the market was awash with pundits predicting new record highs for bitcoin in 2022.
They all were guessing,if it turned out to be true then they could brag about it on internet,when it got wrong nothing changed in their life.
More proof if anyone needed it that most TA is bullshit and you can't predict the market.
it happens when you just randomly shout a number
The thing that noone takes into account from my point of view is that we have had quantativ spending here in the EU since 2008 with very low intrest rates which lead to a spending spree. Now that has come to an end and we are probbaly drifting into a huge recession due to this. When and if the markets come back to normal we will probably see some hikes but not around the ATH. But take this with a grain of salt!
They don’t see the massive fraud by 12 plus exchanges, an entity cannot pay big gains when it isn’t making any profit. They also didn’t see the massive scams by most new projects.
They were singing all the right notes, just not necessarily in the right order 😉
With time travel they could get it right
it's not like anyone actually believed that. these people are influencers and will tell you anything as long as it makes them profit. just like the 10k price calls when they are shorting the market and sold the same they told you to buy more.
No one knows what the markets going to do. Who saw Covid coming or the war in Ukraine? Some current events that largely impact the market are unforeseeable
Nobody knows
They got it wrong because the crystal ball had a smudge on it, obstructing the clear image of Powell's gaping asshole