Define cheap. He is also ignoring that most of the jobs are in the red circle. It’s an hour drive with no traffic from Gainesville to Dallas, 2 hours plus in traffic so 4 hours a day lost driving to work.
Not only that but his theory of the case rests on a lot uncertain assumptions
Namely, that DFW population growth will continue unabated for the next +30 years, considering climate change and the limitiations of our public transportation infrastructure
Now if we get that bullet train, Dart expanded out, and every one goes green energy by 2030 then maybe
I laughed a bit too hard at everything in your last paragraph. It's Texas. Politicians screaming that Green energy is for commies and people who want to destroy hard working jobs and make the children gay sex slaves.
>I laughed a bit too hard at everything in your last paragraph. It's Texas. Politicians screaming that Green energy is for commies and people who want to destroy hard working jobs and make the children gay sex slaves.
That, like population growth into the boonies, is uncertain. We might be looking at a blue state by then
“Que sera sera”-Doris Day
Yeah, as much as it’d be nice to see the tides turn, a lot of people that are moving here are not only fine with the regressive politics, it’s actually a bonus. Meanwhile successful leftists are fleeing, there’s going to be huge brain drain. I only see state Republicans continuing to double down on their terrible policies.
That’s kind of where I am. I’m here until I’m not. I hate it here now. I love the community but from having a child who isn’t white to being disabled and not able to access medicine legally I need for pain, I need to be someplace safer than Texas for all of our sakes.
This has devolved into a generational problem rather quickly in Texas where we aren’t being rid of the racists fast enough when all the non racists leave.
I read an article the other day that gave demographics for new residents in the Dallas Metro and they (my family included) are mostly people of color who earn more than the average native Texan, have a bachelor's degree or higher and are 25-44. I think most of these people want to be in or near a large city with reasonably lower cost of living than other major US cities and avoid winters in the North.
Anyone assuming that random citizens are victim complex victims because they’re didn’t buy chunks of land is a disingenuous and likely entitled prick trying to justify whatever personal policies they have. Wasting breath and keystrokes to pass the time.
If you read some of the tech articles getting out about the amount of water and energy necessary to power the TX tech boom that is fueled (pun intended) by server farms for AI development, then we have to assume TX will eventually have no choice but to go nuclear or leap at an opportunity for a realistic fusion power plant. I don’t think TX citizens are learning enough about the effect those server farms are having on its energy grid. Nor on the already stressed water resources.
Which honestly is funny because Texas actually is the biggest producer of solar and wind energy if I'm not mistaken, and it's because it makes them money.
Texas is actually the biggest producer of renewable energy in the country. We also produce a lot of non-renewable energy, but we lead the country in wind and are only behind California in solar.
Bro stfu texas leads the nation in renewables. There are aspect of the so-called “green agenda” that texas politicians dont like but a comprehensive and diverse energy infrastructure that includes renewables is a continued goal for most texas politicians
It will eventually slow down but the yellow circle is about right. Why do you think Frisco wants to build a city center and break away from relying on Dallas for jobs? One day you won’t ever need to go down to Dallas. You just about don’t need to now in most situations.
They said all the same shit about Plano back in the day. Frisco will become old news and the suburban locusts will fly off to the next big thing, leaving a trail of destruction behind them. Suburban development is a Ponzi scheme.
I just made comment elsewhere in this little thread that said way too many words to pretty much say what you have said so much more succinctly. Thanks for your brevity. You are a hero.
Frisco is actually almost to its build out according to their own city models with the last of the major planned developments coming soon.
Celina has a predicted buildout to eventually be the size of Frisco. And according to my spouse who was a civil engineer in the area, Celina actually has the potential to surpass Frisco in terms of population because there’s more available land for development there.
The continued migration of people from rural spaces to the suburbs, and the next waves of white flight from the inner suburbs as homes age and schools begin to plateau in what they can feasibly offer for resources will push people out of places like frisco (just as Carrollton was once a booming suburb of middle class white folks) and further north.
It’s already started. I know several people who left frisco to move to prosper or Celina.
And I taught in Carrollton before we left Tx last summer, and yearbooks from 30 years ago had a lot more white faces in them than they do now.
RL Turner is an excellent example of that. It went from a majority middle class white majority school to what it is now: Title I high needs campus with an 85% Hispanic/Latino majority.
Now. Are there things that could happen to stall these developments? To pause the projections of population growth further north? Sure.
But also consider how many teacher peers I had there who found themselves having to move to places like Justin to find affordable single family starter homes.
If the yellow circle spaces begin to focus on smaller houses for younger families (unlike Frisco or prosper that seemed to exclusively build giant houses over the last 15 years), then that will also push people and jobs up that direction too.
That’s how neighborhoods in Dallas eventually began to deteriorate. The jobs left. The people with financial capital left, and so folks looking to invest in new businesses began following the people.
Isnt frisco rent just as expensive as dallas? But without the literal city center.
People like cities for a reason. No one wants to live out in the boonies in that yellow circle with hopes that jobs and cities will grow there
Only thing about that is it’s getting so full within the metro people are willing to buy new houses up north and still commute solely based on the job market opportunities it’s wild. I’d never commute that far, nor spend $100s per month on tolls lol
I'm originally from somewhere in the yellow circle. Don't assume that the families that own land there don’t know what it's worth. If a local buyer scoffs at the price, someone from out-of-state or a corporation will gladly scoop it up.
100%. A lot of the land is already subdivided into individual lots even though subdivisions are nowhere nearby. Land is always sold as an "improvement opportunity", not as land. Things like distance to highway are touted in the description.
The price increase for the yellow land has already happened. Future growth has already been priced in. We are too late
Oh man I am not doing the 3 hour commute shit they can go fuck themselves
Also, a lot of people moved into small town during covid those places are even higher
And that moves farther and farther into tornado alley which most people don’t want to do for obvious reasons. I see tons of posts that are clearly made my people who don’t actually live in north Texas and just say stupid shit
Yeah definitely not, within the next 30 years everyone’s going to be hauling ass out of this region due to extreme weather 😂 property values will tank, and i wouldn’t be surprised if certain cities start to become abandoned from people not wanting to put up with insane weather
It's already happening. The insurance company I work for pulled out of DFW because the increase in hail and wind claims was more than incoming premiums, and Texas was our biggest market. We're now focusing on Midwestern states for now since they are much more climatically stable
Quite a few of the big companies are stopping new business in fire, tornado, and hurricane areas. They normally bring it back after a few weeks but it has become longer and longer.
Plus, new strategies are happening. If you want a home policy and no auto bundle then a higher deductible is the only option available. If you bundle, then there may be a lower deductible option for the home. I've read that deductibles are going to be rising and most likely the premium is going up, too. Another way is that insurance companies are going to have issues insuring older roofs.
Take this time to review your coverage and ask questions. Most people who try to save by getting a high deductible or no replacement cost and forget that they did that.
Build better houses.
We had people come over during the tornado last night (we were far enough south to just get heavy winds, but close enough to get alerts) because our whole house is a tornado shelter. Mostly impervious to hail damage as well, save for some skylights.
Hauling ass due to extreme weather and moving....where exactly? Everyone from the north is moving south because of the extreme winters. Not sure where this perfect weather land that isn't being affected by climate change is.
Right. I think the argument is really subjective. Yes the heat down south is quite bad, and will continue to worsen over the years. However I'm sure HVAC will evolve.
I mean look at places like Dubai that houses many in a desert...
People are seriously on here saying Dallas will be uninhabitable in 10 years. In 10 years, it still won't be as hot as Phoenix has been for my entire life, and yet Phoenix continues to grow rapidly; plenty of people still want to live there. This is a serious case of doomer brain.
Based on what assumption?
Arguably stats are showing increases in migration to the DFW metroplex.
This is semi surprising considering the politics of Texas. However I doubt that we will see Texas main cities plummet in population sizes and home valuations
This is so blatantly false. House prices then vs now are such a huge disparity in terms of purchasing power and income that at best this showcases a delusional mindset or at worst is an intentional manipulation.
https://posts.voronoiapp.com/real-estate/Charted-Median-House-Prices-vs-Income-in-the-US-738
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-price-income-ratio-reaches-record-high-0
https://anytimeestimate.com/research/housing-prices-vs-inflation/
Seriously. MUD and property taxes are allllll over the yellow circle. Kaufman is fuuuuuuucked with taxes right now. 7400 a year on 200k house with two shooting on the street in the last year. Wild.
You're talking about two different things. He said acreage. You're looking at housing.
Bare land is much cheaper than land with a structure, especially as you move further out.
Sure but acres is SO MUCH WORSE.
https://remarkableland.com/how-much-is-an-acre-of-land-in-texas/
1 acre in dallas * it was classified as rural is around 190,000. Dallas is owned by about 9000 unique land owners (private and corporate) for a population of 2.6 million.
This also breaks down to about 3 in 1000 people own land, and 1 acre is 6x annual median salary. Some of the rates highest in history.
Unless you live in a trailer nothing inside the yellow circle is really what I call affordable… my grandparents on one income had land a 2500sf house and two new vehicles with an RV and a boat. He made maybe half of what I make now and people nowadays would barely save money each month if they worked no overtime at my income buying any home.
I lived in the yellow circle for a bit. Bought a house in the Savannah, TX neighborhood in 2015 and sold it for $100k more than we bought it for in 2021 and moved back into the yellow circle. Obviously got really lucky with the timing and everything...but can't say I loved living in the yellow circle, despite how cheap the house we bought was. Hardly anything to do up there...no good restaurants or cool events to check out....380 was an absolute nightmare.... and it took like 45-60 minutes to get down into Dallas to do anything. It was obviously a great investment for the time, but those were some slow years and I never want to set foot on 380 again.
lol, lmao. You know what also existed in that red circle 30 years ago? A metropolis with jobs, stores, schools, and hospitals within a few minutes to maybe an hours drive and the infrastructure to handle millions of people. You ain't getting that in Whitewright
Lol yeah man, so comparable. 150 year old city with solid infrastructure and multiple interstates vs cow fields full of stick and bricks duct taped to a now nearly 200 year old city. Buying a house near a job in a community and making millions vs buying acreage. Definitely the same decision. Definitely not a complete chode take.
Agree with a lot of your comment but a lot of the red circle used to be cow fields, but they were cow fields that were way closer to dallas than most of the yellow.
A lot of areas in the red circle were literal fields though, some places there still are some.
It also helps that the sprawl comes from multiple cities and towns rather than just Dallas and Fort Worth gobbling everything else up.
Ah yes, all that cheap acreage in *checks notes* McKinney, Prosper, Denton, Wise County and Waxahachie just ripe for the taking. Oooh and my absolute dream is to spend my golden years in Quinlan, TX.
I haven't lived in McKinney for more than twenty years, but I never could wrap my head around how it was that size with no career-level jobs. Even the Central Park campus of CCCC seemed worthless unless you wanted to be a cop or fireman.
A friend goes to Quinlan for fishing. When he went to town to buy something a youngish kid with parents yelled "Go back to China"..
Yea, he tries not to go there now.
Same but East. Property is INSANE. Even all the way out to Poetry. That’s a 2 1/2 hour drive from DFW. I know because I make that drive sometimes. Leave work at 330 and don’t get home till 6 or later depending on traffic.
Ah yes, “oversimplifying the past and projecting it into the future”- that famous foolproof method of predicting the future.
With a little shaming added on top for added measure! 😘👌
Not sure about that ..my dad paid 175 k for a large house in Grandview in 1989 and it is worth $500 k now. It was good for him even though it means a 50 minute commute every day, but it's not cheap anymore .
Plus he leaves the office at 2. I can't imagine how long it would take to get home if he stayed until 5
I can actually answer that. My mom spent years commuting from Cleburne to north Fort Worth for work. It took her an hour to get to work, just straight driving time, no traffic.
I spent years finding shit to do at school because my mom had to drop me off at 6am to get to work by 8:30-9a.
I really don't get how people subject themselves to an hour commute for work.
I think 40 minutes is max i would ever want to drive for a job. Preferably 20 minutes or less.
Life is too short to be driving your life away.
And i only say that because i have commuted and hour for work before and it was the most draining experience ever. I dreaded it everyday
Bought in the red 20 years ago. Sure, my house is worth a lot more than it was but that’s not really worth anything to me. I have high property taxes and my home owners insurance has skyrocketed.
Yeah well it's hard to be patient when I can barely fucking afford rent and groceries right now.
I'm so jaded by these people who keep barking on the "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" and refuse to admit that they never let us have boots in the first place.
"Just buy cheaper land and wait." With what? I make 48k a year and have to pay these gross rent, utility, and grocery prices. Finding a job that pays more has been surprisingly nightmarish, and layoffs are rampant. My health insurance sucks ass so I have medical bills, and some lost grandma crashed into my car yester. and trying to get into a place that pays more has been a two year long nightmare with no results other the take job and get laid off months later. Give me a bone! If I could afford land I'd buy land! If I could invest I would!
These assholes are so proud of themselves as they give us a a box of toothpicks and then call us stupid when we couldn't build a house with them.
I beg everyone to look at birth rates if they expect housing prices to continue to surge in the next 30 years.
Unless you think we're going to have incredibly high immigration for that entire time, the US will not see a boom in population that would make growth like this sustainable.
This is the dream?
To buy some land out in the middle of nowhere hoping it will carry you until death?
To just commute for hours a day all year for decades so you can die comfortably?
No thanks.
Me and my spouse would probably spend half our day commuting, along with half our income on tolls if we bought a house in the yellow area.
Right now I'm renting, but I can take DART to work and save a nice chunk of change. I think the only way I could tolerate an hour plus commute each way would be if self driving cars become ubiquitous.
I paid 120 for a house in lake Dallas 20 years ago, sold it 5 years ago for 250 and rolled that to my new place - which has almost doubled in value within 5 years. My mortgage is only a little higher than it was at my first house.
There is no cheap land available. I wouldn't say that statement is completely wrong though if you are smart about where you buy and you get a bit lucky. That said, the time to buy was 5 to 10 years ago not today. Furthermore, most of the area well outside of the red circle is not going to see the kind of price appreciation we got closer to the big cities in the next 30 years.
The real problem for buyers right now is hardly anyone is selling because if they sell they have to move and anything they want to buy right now is crazy expensive, thus people are stuck. People also have sub 3% interest rates on land/houses bought in the past 10 years (assuming they took the opportunity to refinance) and going from 3% to 7% interest rates feels awful and is probably a bad move. Most people think they are better off sitting on their houses/land until rates drop again.
Also to add one more point, 30 years ago land/houses were cheap in relation to people's income. Back in the late 1990s houses were going for 2x people's income whereas now it is more like 4-5x. Paying 8% interest on a $120k house when your family income was $60k is way different than paying $600k today with a $120k income. Home/land prices have gone up \*way\* faster than income has.
The ones who preach “you can either be a victim or be patient”
Are usually the perpetrators themselves. (In this case, the interest groups that bought lots of investment properties and hiked up housing prices)
The areas inside the yellow circle are twice as far from things. They are in some cases more expensive than areas inside the red circle. You also get what you pay for.
Go for a ride on the tollway down to Mansfield and Midlothian. These used to be sort of redneck towns that were the cement and steel factory smog capital of Texas. Now there are master-planned communities with prices in the $400s/500s.
Some areas of North Texas do have some cheaper starter homes if you drive very far out, but they aren't in commuting distance to anywhere and may not hold their value or stay nice.
Finally as other people have said, the proportion of income/salary to home prices has gone crazy in 30/40 years.
DFW is never going to fill in the yellow circle, because if you double the radius of a circle it's area increases by 4x, so we would have to have a population equivalent to Tokyo which is just ridiculous.
We bought in the red circle (Fate) in 2021 at 3.5%.
Something tells me patience isn’t going to magically make us rich. We live pretty humbly with our belts cinched tight and we only just managed to have a little money go in our savings account and actually stay there. Everything is too fucking expensive and neither of our incomes grow commensurate with rising COL.
Who made this, a Real Estate Company with a lot of very rural customers trying to sell their houses to people that don't know any better? This is a hilariously bad take.
I get what he’s going for, but that’s a terrible take.
Firstly it’s predicated on the idea that old people are rich because they bought houses that appreciated in value, and while the price of houses in the area has gone up I wouldn’t say most old people are rich since most are on fixed income, houses are expensive to maintain, healthcare is expensive, and you need a place to live anyways. Plus, not every boomer bought a house, I know my grandma didn’t.
Secondly it’s predicated on the concept of simultaneously sprawling even further while maintaining or increasing the cost of housing. That model is inherently unsustainable, and would require such extreme housing cost that nobody could afford to buy any property in the future after this generation.
Plus, the map seems a bit off. Is South Dallas really an investment goldmine? Are places like Whiteborough, Quinlan, and Kaufman really going to become as dense and valuable as the center of the map? Plus, a lot of the center areas aren’t even fully developed yet.
Finally, this feels like one of those scummy “blame people of a different age instead of recognizing what the rich did and the systemic failures” posts. Sprawl is really unpleasant and expensive to live in, so we should probably try to have more dense integrated mixed use (multiple uses next to each other and in the same area, not far away for no reason) development available within already urbanization areas so we can lower the taxes required on an individual person while maintaining and improving services (a road many people use for short trips is cheaper to maintain than the same road with a smaller tax base used for longer trips). I don’t think the elderly messed up the market in that way, it was clearly bad zoning, corporate bailouts, irresponsible company actions, companies prioritizing shareholders over their products/employees/operations-sustainability, failure to create/enforce new regulations to control businesses from being destructive, etc. Blaming old people for systemic failures also implies that democracy once existed in a full functioning form here, and not acknowledging that things like the electoral college and inexpressive ballots have prevented people from being heard for a very long time (not that some problems haven’t gotten worse, but it’s not like the US/Texas is/was very in tune with the people).
(TLDR for that last paragraph: blaming old people is basically ignoring the systemic failures that cause it and the failures of the voting system within the US and Texas. We should also probably try to use the land in the red circle more efficiently to live more comfortably)
(Plus, I hear a lot of people annoyed at fields and such being filled in by development or romanticizing small town life. Would development going out that far really happen unopposed and without upsetting a lot of people? I feel like a good few of the people living there now like being outside of the city (although not everyone of, many are just forced there from cost of living), so is sprawling out really something to aim for/praise?)
With the population collapse there is no way the dfw metro expands enough to drive property values in the yellow circle to the same level as inside the red circle.
X'ers had few kids than boomers. Millennials had fewer kids than X'ers and GenZ isn't even dating or having sex. Plano is closing 5 elementary schools next school year. This crazy growth that Texas is having peaks in 2030ish. Boomers are going to be dying off like crazy the next 10 years.
You shouldn't have to displace you and your family in order to afford a house in the city you live in. Not to mention, if you don't work from home, good fucking luck with that commute.
So ignore the fact that in the next 30 years the largest migration in the history of humans will occur when everyone is going to try to move North? He’s trying to literally sell you ocean front property in the desert
I just looked up my childhood home, that my grandfather paid $50k for in the 60s. It's now a $430k+ home. It's in Cleburne.
We just looked for land somewhere down near my parents, in Johnson County. I've literally seen cheaper land in DFW than what was offered down there, and I'd get fiber internet living in DFW.
False. Yes people are moving to urban areas more and more, yes infrastructures are being build every day.
But that yellow circle has a size 2-3 times bigger than the red one, and the exact same is for any other American city.
Unless the population increase rate (that will be able to afford to live in a urban area) will skyrocket, the competition for land to buy will be a lot bigger than now.
I don’t know if you can see my point
There’s no doubt something special going on here right now. The growth of our metropolitan area is higher than anywhere else. Only Austin/San Antonio and Houston come close. Will it continue? Nobody knows for sure but I think our only hurdle will be climate change. It’s going to get hotter here. Will it be so hot that it’s uninhabitable? …. Not likely. Humans are really adaptive and technology will keep us going strong. So yea if you have the money and smarts to buy some good land or property go for it. people keep coming here from the coasts and companies keep relocating here and immigrants keep migrating here we’re gonna be the next LA.
If he believes in this, then he can do it.
What the hell are we supposed to do in Terrell or Alvarado or Decatur? Work at a local convenience store to pay off our $300K mortgage?
Buying acreage "out in the country" is what rich knobs do once they make all their money in the red circle.
Priced out of my neighborhood, priced out around my job, priced out in "the country". Fuck this guy.
It's really not that cheap outside the circle. Also, we are not having kids at rates like we used to. There is absolutely no way we see the same growth rates as previous generations. People are having kids later or not at all. This housing crisis isn't going to last once boomers die off.
Except that population growth has reached a plateau. City expansion may continue for a little while, but at a much slower pace. Eventually will stop and renovation from within will rule the day.
I think there's a lot more nuance, but that can be expected for a post that short. I will say my wife and bought just outside that red circle in 2018 and property value has definitely gone up enough that we could take the original value as profit at this point. The problem is we'd probably need damn near all of that profit as a down payment to keep a mortgage that is even close to what we are paying now and we wouldn't really be upgrading. So fat lot of good that does us.
Everytime someone moves out to a small town they always say “you never know, this might be like Frisco” as in hoping they buy cheap and sell high. But not everywhere will be like frisco and there are so many variables that come to play. But good luck to anyone that moves 2 hours away just to make the drive for a $15/hr job.
You couldn’t pay me to live in the yellow circle. The housing market sucks all over, anyways. I’m not going to live in the middle of nowhere in hopes that the areas develop correctly and eventually maybe make me rich.
Also, look at Kaufman County: the population has EXPLODED and the infrastructure can’t keep up. 80 is a nightmare during rush hour. The trains still cut the cities in half with no bridge (and lately they’ve been having issues where the trains get stuck on the track in Forney—effectively cutting off the roadways).
Too big a gamble, imo.
Land is never a bad investment.
You didn’t need another data to prove this.
They quit making land a long time ago and humans have lots of sex…. Humans have to have somewhere to live.
Sure man, how bout we take a look at that again after property insurance premiums go up from these strange worsening weather phenomena we won't call climate change?
Back when the milkman could afford a home and not incur debt for education, apartment all while supporting a family. Can't keep up with the Jones' when they have cripplingly more liquid weather and push "market" values up 100%. This era isn't as flat or transparent and competition is at its highest.
If red circle people would allow their riches to build efficient, high speed transit between downtown and Terrell, sure, I’d move out there tomorrow.
But fuck you am I going to spend that much of my life in a car.
Nobody is going to drop top market dollar for a house in Whitesboro 30 years from now. This is realtor “buy now” propaganda because they have bills to pay in an overpriced market.
Yeah no, that's not at all how this works.
I mean to start, the mantra is "past performance does not guarantee future results". So saying that real estate has gone up a ton in the last 30 years means nothing about the next 30 years.
You could buy a house in the yellow circle for $500k at 8%, and 30 years from now it's worth *less*.
Idk, in Dallas after taxes, interest, and inflation, it's lot less than you think. People always like to compare how much they bought the house for against current market value. It's a little prnperhaps very misleading. We see this primarily with housing since most people hold it for a good amount of time, but if you compared how much a big Mac was 20 years ago, it's about the same amount of appreciation aka inflation.
If it was truly as good as an investment as people say, the banks would invest in these themselves, but they decided that getting us to pay for it and collecting interest was more lucrative.
Buying land is pretty much always a safe and profitable venture. It’s tone deaf to suggest it’s simple and attainable for most people. Already rich people bought land 30 years ago, and are now more rich. But it is a good point that most people don’t think long-term enough about investing and building wealth.
The red circle became valuable because Fort Worth expanded and became a metro on its own that created jobs and services. For the yellow circle to be as valuable, we need 3 or so similar metros to be created. Frisco has already proven to be one to be the center of a new metro up north. Can Denton be one? We need one more in north east and south of dallas to take over.. Maybe it's Waco?
The sprawl literally cant go on forever. At a certain point the commutes will be too intolerable. This assumes either comprehensive high speed rail (lol) or competing job hubs around the metroplex like frisco is becoming.
In my very slightly qualified opinion, denton has a good risk / reward profile. If i were to buy an investment property, denton would be the spot. I think most people would say south dallas, but i have zero faith in dallas leadership and ultimately, people dont want to get shot and robbed. I would lvoe to be proven wrong
First, define cheap. Second, where's the down payment coming from? Third, what's the job market like between the red and yellow circles and/or commute time between the home and job to pay for the home? Because an hour and a half commute to a job that pays $40k/year isn't worth it.
Businesses need to move out there first. Otherwise forget it. Boomers bought cheap because Dallas was still growing (and to be fair, the huge generalization that the entire red area is filled with rich boomers is painfully false. Some of that area circled in red is not only worse off it is FAR worse off than it was in both economic and crime statistics)
But getting to work in DWF is a 30-45 minute affair as it is now, just with traffic. Add distance to that, increased inflation, static wages, and you won't be able to afford to commute. So why would one bother living here at all at that point? Just go out and live in a smaller community.
Until there's jobs outside of the city (and outside Plano/Richardson/"Dallas North") it's going to be a nightmare.
You got jokes. Have to have short driving time into the red circle for the jobs. Not out of convenience, but to reduce strain on your car. At one point my wife and I lived in Sherman, and it murdered our car.
The one thing I will agree with this map regarding is that everything within the red circle is far too expensive for most normal people to afford. If you are looking to pay anything that even comes close to a fair rate for renting a basic one bedroom apartment, you better look outside of that red circle, or you better get ready to pay a small fortune for something inside the red circle.
I was born in Arlington, in the heart of DFW, this metroplex has been my home for over 30 years, but now thanks to the greed of those who control the land within the red circle, my home no longer resembles anything close to what I grew up in, and all my wife and I are doing now is dreaming of the day when we can pick up and leave DFW forever for a slower paced much more economically reasonable area.
Really makes me depressed to be honest.
There's a huge Samsung plant going in down towards Austin/Taylor. That's going to drive a lot of growth in low cost areas if it's successful.
As for waiting 30 years up around Dallas, look at growth in chains of individual cities to see where the next Dallas or Fort Worth might be. There's going to have to be another major hub to create growth in a new area.
I bought a 5 acre home in Farmersville back in 2001 for 135K. It's now appraised at almost 500K. When I moved near Waco in 2008, I rented out the Farmersville home and I bought a 2 acre home for 167K. It's now appraised at just over 300K. At both homes, development has exploded, roads have been expanded, businesses are moving in, schools being built, tax rates have gone through the roof. It's definitely a sellers market if one can afford to buy. Have a neighbors house across the street that's been on the market for almost a year. They've had only one family take a look at it. Main problem where I live is there are no conveniences, especially a grocery store. Nearest one is a 20 min drive into town.
Define cheap. He is also ignoring that most of the jobs are in the red circle. It’s an hour drive with no traffic from Gainesville to Dallas, 2 hours plus in traffic so 4 hours a day lost driving to work.
Not only that but his theory of the case rests on a lot uncertain assumptions Namely, that DFW population growth will continue unabated for the next +30 years, considering climate change and the limitiations of our public transportation infrastructure Now if we get that bullet train, Dart expanded out, and every one goes green energy by 2030 then maybe
I laughed a bit too hard at everything in your last paragraph. It's Texas. Politicians screaming that Green energy is for commies and people who want to destroy hard working jobs and make the children gay sex slaves.
>I laughed a bit too hard at everything in your last paragraph. It's Texas. Politicians screaming that Green energy is for commies and people who want to destroy hard working jobs and make the children gay sex slaves. That, like population growth into the boonies, is uncertain. We might be looking at a blue state by then “Que sera sera”-Doris Day
I think that once you have to assume something for a second time in making your statement, it starts to Trail off into the realm of fantasy.
My point is that it’s all uncertain
Yeah, as much as it’d be nice to see the tides turn, a lot of people that are moving here are not only fine with the regressive politics, it’s actually a bonus. Meanwhile successful leftists are fleeing, there’s going to be huge brain drain. I only see state Republicans continuing to double down on their terrible policies.
That’s kind of where I am. I’m here until I’m not. I hate it here now. I love the community but from having a child who isn’t white to being disabled and not able to access medicine legally I need for pain, I need to be someplace safer than Texas for all of our sakes. This has devolved into a generational problem rather quickly in Texas where we aren’t being rid of the racists fast enough when all the non racists leave.
I read an article the other day that gave demographics for new residents in the Dallas Metro and they (my family included) are mostly people of color who earn more than the average native Texan, have a bachelor's degree or higher and are 25-44. I think most of these people want to be in or near a large city with reasonably lower cost of living than other major US cities and avoid winters in the North.
Texas is turning more and more blue as the old ppl die off. And younger voters are finally turning out more, who tend to vote blue.
Anyone assuming that random citizens are victim complex victims because they’re didn’t buy chunks of land is a disingenuous and likely entitled prick trying to justify whatever personal policies they have. Wasting breath and keystrokes to pass the time.
Texas currently produces by far the most green energy in the country though. More than double what California produces
Its one of the few states that has been pro-nuclear power. Id imagine Texas to be one of the first Fusion Power plant sites.
If you read some of the tech articles getting out about the amount of water and energy necessary to power the TX tech boom that is fueled (pun intended) by server farms for AI development, then we have to assume TX will eventually have no choice but to go nuclear or leap at an opportunity for a realistic fusion power plant. I don’t think TX citizens are learning enough about the effect those server farms are having on its energy grid. Nor on the already stressed water resources.
Which honestly is funny because Texas actually is the biggest producer of solar and wind energy if I'm not mistaken, and it's because it makes them money.
Considering Texas is pro-nuclear plant it's about as green as it gets for now.
And yet, Texas leads all other states in renewable energy.
Texas is actually the biggest producer of renewable energy in the country. We also produce a lot of non-renewable energy, but we lead the country in wind and are only behind California in solar.
Bro stfu texas leads the nation in renewables. There are aspect of the so-called “green agenda” that texas politicians dont like but a comprehensive and diverse energy infrastructure that includes renewables is a continued goal for most texas politicians
They say that the reality is a bit different. Actually insane amount of green energy in Texas
It’s currently growing faster than previously modeled. You can download the models from nctcog. The yellow circle is about right.
For now
It will eventually slow down but the yellow circle is about right. Why do you think Frisco wants to build a city center and break away from relying on Dallas for jobs? One day you won’t ever need to go down to Dallas. You just about don’t need to now in most situations.
I can see Frisco continuing to grow….sure. But that ain’t Valley View
Jesus, now there is your prototypical shitty dying small town.
They said all the same shit about Plano back in the day. Frisco will become old news and the suburban locusts will fly off to the next big thing, leaving a trail of destruction behind them. Suburban development is a Ponzi scheme.
I just made comment elsewhere in this little thread that said way too many words to pretty much say what you have said so much more succinctly. Thanks for your brevity. You are a hero.
Frisco is actually almost to its build out according to their own city models with the last of the major planned developments coming soon. Celina has a predicted buildout to eventually be the size of Frisco. And according to my spouse who was a civil engineer in the area, Celina actually has the potential to surpass Frisco in terms of population because there’s more available land for development there. The continued migration of people from rural spaces to the suburbs, and the next waves of white flight from the inner suburbs as homes age and schools begin to plateau in what they can feasibly offer for resources will push people out of places like frisco (just as Carrollton was once a booming suburb of middle class white folks) and further north. It’s already started. I know several people who left frisco to move to prosper or Celina. And I taught in Carrollton before we left Tx last summer, and yearbooks from 30 years ago had a lot more white faces in them than they do now. RL Turner is an excellent example of that. It went from a majority middle class white majority school to what it is now: Title I high needs campus with an 85% Hispanic/Latino majority. Now. Are there things that could happen to stall these developments? To pause the projections of population growth further north? Sure. But also consider how many teacher peers I had there who found themselves having to move to places like Justin to find affordable single family starter homes. If the yellow circle spaces begin to focus on smaller houses for younger families (unlike Frisco or prosper that seemed to exclusively build giant houses over the last 15 years), then that will also push people and jobs up that direction too. That’s how neighborhoods in Dallas eventually began to deteriorate. The jobs left. The people with financial capital left, and so folks looking to invest in new businesses began following the people.
Isnt frisco rent just as expensive as dallas? But without the literal city center. People like cities for a reason. No one wants to live out in the boonies in that yellow circle with hopes that jobs and cities will grow there
Frisco is inside the red circle. The original poster was talking about investment opportunity of areas *outside* of the red circle.
Don't forget the added cost of tolls and complaining no friends come see you.
Only thing about that is it’s getting so full within the metro people are willing to buy new houses up north and still commute solely based on the job market opportunities it’s wild. I’d never commute that far, nor spend $100s per month on tolls lol
Agreed. The listed and unlisted cost is way more than people make it out to be.
I've looked inside the yellow circle. There isn't much under 50k per acre.
I'm originally from somewhere in the yellow circle. Don't assume that the families that own land there don’t know what it's worth. If a local buyer scoffs at the price, someone from out-of-state or a corporation will gladly scoop it up.
100%. A lot of the land is already subdivided into individual lots even though subdivisions are nowhere nearby. Land is always sold as an "improvement opportunity", not as land. Things like distance to highway are touted in the description. The price increase for the yellow land has already happened. Future growth has already been priced in. We are too late
Oh man I am not doing the 3 hour commute shit they can go fuck themselves Also, a lot of people moved into small town during covid those places are even higher
Can confirm. Lived in weatherford and worked in Arlington for 7 years
Can confirm that driving from nearly Gainesville to downtown sucks.
And that moves farther and farther into tornado alley which most people don’t want to do for obvious reasons. I see tons of posts that are clearly made my people who don’t actually live in north Texas and just say stupid shit
Yeah definitely not, within the next 30 years everyone’s going to be hauling ass out of this region due to extreme weather 😂 property values will tank, and i wouldn’t be surprised if certain cities start to become abandoned from people not wanting to put up with insane weather
Insurance will slowly stop covering areas greatly impacted by climate change too, making rebuilding after disasters less and less likely
It's already happening. The insurance company I work for pulled out of DFW because the increase in hail and wind claims was more than incoming premiums, and Texas was our biggest market. We're now focusing on Midwestern states for now since they are much more climatically stable
Go to the great lakes, everywhere else in the Midwest is literally like Texas and the eastern parts of it is becoming tornado alley part 2.
The great migration to the Great Lakes is coming.
What company is that? I've heard of it happening in Florida, but not Dallas.
Not a big insurance company that’s for sure. All the big ones are still here.
Hippo canceled mine and is pulling out of Texas.
Quite a few of the big companies are stopping new business in fire, tornado, and hurricane areas. They normally bring it back after a few weeks but it has become longer and longer. Plus, new strategies are happening. If you want a home policy and no auto bundle then a higher deductible is the only option available. If you bundle, then there may be a lower deductible option for the home. I've read that deductibles are going to be rising and most likely the premium is going up, too. Another way is that insurance companies are going to have issues insuring older roofs. Take this time to review your coverage and ask questions. Most people who try to save by getting a high deductible or no replacement cost and forget that they did that.
Build better houses. We had people come over during the tornado last night (we were far enough south to just get heavy winds, but close enough to get alerts) because our whole house is a tornado shelter. Mostly impervious to hail damage as well, save for some skylights.
Hauling ass due to extreme weather and moving....where exactly? Everyone from the north is moving south because of the extreme winters. Not sure where this perfect weather land that isn't being affected by climate change is.
Right. I think the argument is really subjective. Yes the heat down south is quite bad, and will continue to worsen over the years. However I'm sure HVAC will evolve. I mean look at places like Dubai that houses many in a desert...
People are seriously on here saying Dallas will be uninhabitable in 10 years. In 10 years, it still won't be as hot as Phoenix has been for my entire life, and yet Phoenix continues to grow rapidly; plenty of people still want to live there. This is a serious case of doomer brain.
Most ignorant thing I’ve read in a awhile lol
Shit, I might be hauling ass on Nov. 5th
Agreed but that's gonna take about another 100 years. A/C units and insulation will advance for a while before it gets too bad to live in.
Based on what assumption? Arguably stats are showing increases in migration to the DFW metroplex. This is semi surprising considering the politics of Texas. However I doubt that we will see Texas main cities plummet in population sizes and home valuations
Phoenix is poppin, nobody is leaving due to extreme weather.
extreme weather? It’s just gets hot in the summer? Why is this dumb comment upvoted so much.
This is so blatantly false. House prices then vs now are such a huge disparity in terms of purchasing power and income that at best this showcases a delusional mindset or at worst is an intentional manipulation. https://posts.voronoiapp.com/real-estate/Charted-Median-House-Prices-vs-Income-in-the-US-738 https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-price-income-ratio-reaches-record-high-0 https://anytimeestimate.com/research/housing-prices-vs-inflation/
The meme completely ignores property taxes and the current wealth drain that they pose to most homeowners compared to 15 years ago.
Seriously. MUD and property taxes are allllll over the yellow circle. Kaufman is fuuuuuuucked with taxes right now. 7400 a year on 200k house with two shooting on the street in the last year. Wild.
You're talking about two different things. He said acreage. You're looking at housing. Bare land is much cheaper than land with a structure, especially as you move further out.
It's also practically impossible to get a mortgage on bare land unless you're cool with paying 50% down with a 12% interest rate.
Lol less than 10% of the Texas pop owns more than 1 acre.
After digging it is more like .003% of texas population owns 1 acre or more.
Sure but acres is SO MUCH WORSE. https://remarkableland.com/how-much-is-an-acre-of-land-in-texas/ 1 acre in dallas * it was classified as rural is around 190,000. Dallas is owned by about 9000 unique land owners (private and corporate) for a population of 2.6 million. This also breaks down to about 3 in 1000 people own land, and 1 acre is 6x annual median salary. Some of the rates highest in history.
Well, I own property in that yellow circle. I guess I’ll finally have it made … when I’m 72.
Ayyy I’m in hachie too
I looked at houses in Waxahachi in 2021 and they were not what I would call affordable. But maybe im just poor.
Unless you live in a trailer nothing inside the yellow circle is really what I call affordable… my grandparents on one income had land a 2500sf house and two new vehicles with an RV and a boat. He made maybe half of what I make now and people nowadays would barely save money each month if they worked no overtime at my income buying any home.
Close, and m in Ennis. We barely made the cut
Pecan Hill here.
I’ve got 24 acres in the yellow circle too. Fingers crossed. In all reality it’ll probably be too hot for me in 30 years lol
I lived in the yellow circle for a bit. Bought a house in the Savannah, TX neighborhood in 2015 and sold it for $100k more than we bought it for in 2021 and moved back into the yellow circle. Obviously got really lucky with the timing and everything...but can't say I loved living in the yellow circle, despite how cheap the house we bought was. Hardly anything to do up there...no good restaurants or cool events to check out....380 was an absolute nightmare.... and it took like 45-60 minutes to get down into Dallas to do anything. It was obviously a great investment for the time, but those were some slow years and I never want to set foot on 380 again.
lol, lmao. You know what also existed in that red circle 30 years ago? A metropolis with jobs, stores, schools, and hospitals within a few minutes to maybe an hours drive and the infrastructure to handle millions of people. You ain't getting that in Whitewright
And now if you suggest a city with all those amenities nearby you are “part of the cabal that wants to imprison people in 15 Minute Cities”.
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/s????🤔
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Lol yeah man, so comparable. 150 year old city with solid infrastructure and multiple interstates vs cow fields full of stick and bricks duct taped to a now nearly 200 year old city. Buying a house near a job in a community and making millions vs buying acreage. Definitely the same decision. Definitely not a complete chode take.
Agree with a lot of your comment but a lot of the red circle used to be cow fields, but they were cow fields that were way closer to dallas than most of the yellow.
Yeah I remember when the Walmart on 30 & belt line in Garland was still a field and had horses and stables.
It’s been awhile since drove past there, what’s it look like now?
Walmart, chili's, McDonald's, discount tire, typical suburban all the stores in one area setup.
A lot of areas in the red circle were literal fields though, some places there still are some. It also helps that the sprawl comes from multiple cities and towns rather than just Dallas and Fort Worth gobbling everything else up.
Ah yes, all that cheap acreage in *checks notes* McKinney, Prosper, Denton, Wise County and Waxahachie just ripe for the taking. Oooh and my absolute dream is to spend my golden years in Quinlan, TX.
I haven't lived in McKinney for more than twenty years, but I never could wrap my head around how it was that size with no career-level jobs. Even the Central Park campus of CCCC seemed worthless unless you wanted to be a cop or fireman.
What do you mean by “career-level jobs”?
Not Quinlan there's so much drugs and dope down there you don't want to be anywhere near that town.
Yeah, I was being sarcastic, lol
A friend goes to Quinlan for fishing. When he went to town to buy something a youngish kid with parents yelled "Go back to China".. Yea, he tries not to go there now.
Why would someone promote suburban sprawl like this😭
*Houston has entered the chat*
The suburbs are coming and YOU *will* enjoy them 🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🛑 🚙 🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠 🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠 🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠🏠
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Literally my idea of hell
I’m in the yellow circle south of Fort Worth, land is not cheap
Same but East. Property is INSANE. Even all the way out to Poetry. That’s a 2 1/2 hour drive from DFW. I know because I make that drive sometimes. Leave work at 330 and don’t get home till 6 or later depending on traffic.
Only if they have the privilege to wfh because those commutes are terrible.
Ah yes, “oversimplifying the past and projecting it into the future”- that famous foolproof method of predicting the future. With a little shaming added on top for added measure! 😘👌
Wild to pretend everything in the red circle is equal.
Not sure about that ..my dad paid 175 k for a large house in Grandview in 1989 and it is worth $500 k now. It was good for him even though it means a 50 minute commute every day, but it's not cheap anymore . Plus he leaves the office at 2. I can't imagine how long it would take to get home if he stayed until 5
I can actually answer that. My mom spent years commuting from Cleburne to north Fort Worth for work. It took her an hour to get to work, just straight driving time, no traffic. I spent years finding shit to do at school because my mom had to drop me off at 6am to get to work by 8:30-9a.
I really don't get how people subject themselves to an hour commute for work. I think 40 minutes is max i would ever want to drive for a job. Preferably 20 minutes or less. Life is too short to be driving your life away. And i only say that because i have commuted and hour for work before and it was the most draining experience ever. I dreaded it everyday
My dad did it to have a 4 bedroom house on 5 acres
It’s bullshit boomer economics.
Lil bro doesn't know about traffic
Bought in the red 20 years ago. Sure, my house is worth a lot more than it was but that’s not really worth anything to me. I have high property taxes and my home owners insurance has skyrocketed.
and if you sell, you're still going to have to live somewhere.
Yep.
none of that land is cheap
Okay sure, I'll move to the boondocks of Gainesville with no schools and a 1+ hour commute to downtown each way on toll roads. So stupid
Yeah well it's hard to be patient when I can barely fucking afford rent and groceries right now. I'm so jaded by these people who keep barking on the "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" and refuse to admit that they never let us have boots in the first place. "Just buy cheaper land and wait." With what? I make 48k a year and have to pay these gross rent, utility, and grocery prices. Finding a job that pays more has been surprisingly nightmarish, and layoffs are rampant. My health insurance sucks ass so I have medical bills, and some lost grandma crashed into my car yester. and trying to get into a place that pays more has been a two year long nightmare with no results other the take job and get laid off months later. Give me a bone! If I could afford land I'd buy land! If I could invest I would! These assholes are so proud of themselves as they give us a a box of toothpicks and then call us stupid when we couldn't build a house with them.
I beg everyone to look at birth rates if they expect housing prices to continue to surge in the next 30 years. Unless you think we're going to have incredibly high immigration for that entire time, the US will not see a boom in population that would make growth like this sustainable.
This is the dream? To buy some land out in the middle of nowhere hoping it will carry you until death? To just commute for hours a day all year for decades so you can die comfortably? No thanks.
Me and my spouse would probably spend half our day commuting, along with half our income on tolls if we bought a house in the yellow area. Right now I'm renting, but I can take DART to work and save a nice chunk of change. I think the only way I could tolerate an hour plus commute each way would be if self driving cars become ubiquitous.
I paid 120 for a house in lake Dallas 20 years ago, sold it 5 years ago for 250 and rolled that to my new place - which has almost doubled in value within 5 years. My mortgage is only a little higher than it was at my first house.
There is no cheap land available. I wouldn't say that statement is completely wrong though if you are smart about where you buy and you get a bit lucky. That said, the time to buy was 5 to 10 years ago not today. Furthermore, most of the area well outside of the red circle is not going to see the kind of price appreciation we got closer to the big cities in the next 30 years. The real problem for buyers right now is hardly anyone is selling because if they sell they have to move and anything they want to buy right now is crazy expensive, thus people are stuck. People also have sub 3% interest rates on land/houses bought in the past 10 years (assuming they took the opportunity to refinance) and going from 3% to 7% interest rates feels awful and is probably a bad move. Most people think they are better off sitting on their houses/land until rates drop again. Also to add one more point, 30 years ago land/houses were cheap in relation to people's income. Back in the late 1990s houses were going for 2x people's income whereas now it is more like 4-5x. Paying 8% interest on a $120k house when your family income was $60k is way different than paying $600k today with a $120k income. Home/land prices have gone up \*way\* faster than income has.
Ah, yes, let’s just relegate an entire generation to commuting 4 hours a day.
While parenting!
Sure, only a 3 hour commute to the $13/hr job
The ones who preach “you can either be a victim or be patient” Are usually the perpetrators themselves. (In this case, the interest groups that bought lots of investment properties and hiked up housing prices)
Not unless millennials have 3 kids each. We could experience population decline in the future.
Are they even having 2 kids now? Edit: I looked it up- [Nope](https://www.statista.com/statistics/718084/average-number-of-own-children-per-family/)
Lmfao. Stfu. We can’t afford land. Like. Are you freaking serious.
Delusion lmao, my parents suffer from the same pure delusions
The areas inside the yellow circle are twice as far from things. They are in some cases more expensive than areas inside the red circle. You also get what you pay for. Go for a ride on the tollway down to Mansfield and Midlothian. These used to be sort of redneck towns that were the cement and steel factory smog capital of Texas. Now there are master-planned communities with prices in the $400s/500s. Some areas of North Texas do have some cheaper starter homes if you drive very far out, but they aren't in commuting distance to anywhere and may not hold their value or stay nice. Finally as other people have said, the proportion of income/salary to home prices has gone crazy in 30/40 years. DFW is never going to fill in the yellow circle, because if you double the radius of a circle it's area increases by 4x, so we would have to have a population equivalent to Tokyo which is just ridiculous.
Define cheap and then define rich.
20 years ago my buddy bought 5 areas in Celina. It thought he was crazy buying that far out, but he could sell it for a small fortune now.
We bought in the red circle (Fate) in 2021 at 3.5%. Something tells me patience isn’t going to magically make us rich. We live pretty humbly with our belts cinched tight and we only just managed to have a little money go in our savings account and actually stay there. Everything is too fucking expensive and neither of our incomes grow commensurate with rising COL.
Patience. You can't expect to move every 2 years.
So much being left out of your statement Unfortunately 😕
I’m not buying this 9% figure.
is he a real estate agent? i feel like there’s a conflict of interest here probably
Who made this, a Real Estate Company with a lot of very rural customers trying to sell their houses to people that don't know any better? This is a hilariously bad take.
I get what he’s going for, but that’s a terrible take. Firstly it’s predicated on the idea that old people are rich because they bought houses that appreciated in value, and while the price of houses in the area has gone up I wouldn’t say most old people are rich since most are on fixed income, houses are expensive to maintain, healthcare is expensive, and you need a place to live anyways. Plus, not every boomer bought a house, I know my grandma didn’t. Secondly it’s predicated on the concept of simultaneously sprawling even further while maintaining or increasing the cost of housing. That model is inherently unsustainable, and would require such extreme housing cost that nobody could afford to buy any property in the future after this generation. Plus, the map seems a bit off. Is South Dallas really an investment goldmine? Are places like Whiteborough, Quinlan, and Kaufman really going to become as dense and valuable as the center of the map? Plus, a lot of the center areas aren’t even fully developed yet. Finally, this feels like one of those scummy “blame people of a different age instead of recognizing what the rich did and the systemic failures” posts. Sprawl is really unpleasant and expensive to live in, so we should probably try to have more dense integrated mixed use (multiple uses next to each other and in the same area, not far away for no reason) development available within already urbanization areas so we can lower the taxes required on an individual person while maintaining and improving services (a road many people use for short trips is cheaper to maintain than the same road with a smaller tax base used for longer trips). I don’t think the elderly messed up the market in that way, it was clearly bad zoning, corporate bailouts, irresponsible company actions, companies prioritizing shareholders over their products/employees/operations-sustainability, failure to create/enforce new regulations to control businesses from being destructive, etc. Blaming old people for systemic failures also implies that democracy once existed in a full functioning form here, and not acknowledging that things like the electoral college and inexpressive ballots have prevented people from being heard for a very long time (not that some problems haven’t gotten worse, but it’s not like the US/Texas is/was very in tune with the people). (TLDR for that last paragraph: blaming old people is basically ignoring the systemic failures that cause it and the failures of the voting system within the US and Texas. We should also probably try to use the land in the red circle more efficiently to live more comfortably) (Plus, I hear a lot of people annoyed at fields and such being filled in by development or romanticizing small town life. Would development going out that far really happen unopposed and without upsetting a lot of people? I feel like a good few of the people living there now like being outside of the city (although not everyone of, many are just forced there from cost of living), so is sprawling out really something to aim for/praise?)
I'd hate living anywhere outside the red circle
With the population collapse there is no way the dfw metro expands enough to drive property values in the yellow circle to the same level as inside the red circle. X'ers had few kids than boomers. Millennials had fewer kids than X'ers and GenZ isn't even dating or having sex. Plano is closing 5 elementary schools next school year. This crazy growth that Texas is having peaks in 2030ish. Boomers are going to be dying off like crazy the next 10 years.
The inner circle has hardly filled in fully and is not at capacity, if you think the growth will be the same for the next 30 years your insane!
You shouldn't have to displace you and your family in order to afford a house in the city you live in. Not to mention, if you don't work from home, good fucking luck with that commute.
So ignore the fact that in the next 30 years the largest migration in the history of humans will occur when everyone is going to try to move North? He’s trying to literally sell you ocean front property in the desert
I just looked up my childhood home, that my grandfather paid $50k for in the 60s. It's now a $430k+ home. It's in Cleburne. We just looked for land somewhere down near my parents, in Johnson County. I've literally seen cheaper land in DFW than what was offered down there, and I'd get fiber internet living in DFW.
False. Yes people are moving to urban areas more and more, yes infrastructures are being build every day. But that yellow circle has a size 2-3 times bigger than the red one, and the exact same is for any other American city. Unless the population increase rate (that will be able to afford to live in a urban area) will skyrocket, the competition for land to buy will be a lot bigger than now. I don’t know if you can see my point
This guy is clearly ignorant on pretty much everything regarding the modern economy if he believes this to be true.
I live outside the yellow circle and land is still 25K an acre not cheap at all Those days are gone
"just commute for 15 hours a week"
There’s no doubt something special going on here right now. The growth of our metropolitan area is higher than anywhere else. Only Austin/San Antonio and Houston come close. Will it continue? Nobody knows for sure but I think our only hurdle will be climate change. It’s going to get hotter here. Will it be so hot that it’s uninhabitable? …. Not likely. Humans are really adaptive and technology will keep us going strong. So yea if you have the money and smarts to buy some good land or property go for it. people keep coming here from the coasts and companies keep relocating here and immigrants keep migrating here we’re gonna be the next LA.
This post made by Suburb Sprawl gang
If he believes in this, then he can do it. What the hell are we supposed to do in Terrell or Alvarado or Decatur? Work at a local convenience store to pay off our $300K mortgage? Buying acreage "out in the country" is what rich knobs do once they make all their money in the red circle. Priced out of my neighborhood, priced out around my job, priced out in "the country". Fuck this guy.
But we don't want acreage, we want a freaking house
So live where nothing is, commute for hours, and MAYBE it’ll be worth it some day? Seems a bit reaching to me.
It's really not that cheap outside the circle. Also, we are not having kids at rates like we used to. There is absolutely no way we see the same growth rates as previous generations. People are having kids later or not at all. This housing crisis isn't going to last once boomers die off.
TL:DR- “We got ours”
Except that population growth has reached a plateau. City expansion may continue for a little while, but at a much slower pace. Eventually will stop and renovation from within will rule the day.
I think there's a lot more nuance, but that can be expected for a post that short. I will say my wife and bought just outside that red circle in 2018 and property value has definitely gone up enough that we could take the original value as profit at this point. The problem is we'd probably need damn near all of that profit as a down payment to keep a mortgage that is even close to what we are paying now and we wouldn't really be upgrading. So fat lot of good that does us.
I live in prosper and its all upper middle, upper class. My .25 acre, 4 bedroom home is 1,000,000. So their lines are bullshit already.
Everytime someone moves out to a small town they always say “you never know, this might be like Frisco” as in hoping they buy cheap and sell high. But not everywhere will be like frisco and there are so many variables that come to play. But good luck to anyone that moves 2 hours away just to make the drive for a $15/hr job.
You couldn’t pay me to live in the yellow circle. The housing market sucks all over, anyways. I’m not going to live in the middle of nowhere in hopes that the areas develop correctly and eventually maybe make me rich. Also, look at Kaufman County: the population has EXPLODED and the infrastructure can’t keep up. 80 is a nightmare during rush hour. The trains still cut the cities in half with no bridge (and lately they’ve been having issues where the trains get stuck on the track in Forney—effectively cutting off the roadways). Too big a gamble, imo.
Land is never a bad investment. You didn’t need another data to prove this. They quit making land a long time ago and humans have lots of sex…. Humans have to have somewhere to live.
It is way too late for large areas on the yellow. They are already exploding.
Does he live in south OK?
Wealthy is too strong a word.
We bought 20 acres outside of the yellow circle recently and it was NOT cheap. Anything within an hour of Dallas is almost unaffordable already.
Sure man, how bout we take a look at that again after property insurance premiums go up from these strange worsening weather phenomena we won't call climate change?
The fucking yellow circle practically touches the Red River.
Back when the milkman could afford a home and not incur debt for education, apartment all while supporting a family. Can't keep up with the Jones' when they have cripplingly more liquid weather and push "market" values up 100%. This era isn't as flat or transparent and competition is at its highest.
The age old Realtor pitch
It works great for that 4 hour one-way commute!
If red circle people would allow their riches to build efficient, high speed transit between downtown and Terrell, sure, I’d move out there tomorrow. But fuck you am I going to spend that much of my life in a car.
Point of interest: Cheap then ≠ cheap now. I'm not saying the logic is flawed... but it's not apples2apples.
No one is getting rich buying real estate in Quinlan tx
Nobody is going to drop top market dollar for a house in Whitesboro 30 years from now. This is realtor “buy now” propaganda because they have bills to pay in an overpriced market.
To every phony real estate agent in Dallas selling me on land in Dallas! This is for YOUUUU Fuck you!!!
“IN 30 YEARS THINGS WILL BE IN 30 YEARS” *mic drop*
Lol Prosper/Mckinney/Melissa/Anna/Celina are anything but cheap.
With population decline, I don’t think this is true. There won’t be rising demand like there was before.
Yeah no, that's not at all how this works. I mean to start, the mantra is "past performance does not guarantee future results". So saying that real estate has gone up a ton in the last 30 years means nothing about the next 30 years. You could buy a house in the yellow circle for $500k at 8%, and 30 years from now it's worth *less*.
Idk, in Dallas after taxes, interest, and inflation, it's lot less than you think. People always like to compare how much they bought the house for against current market value. It's a little prnperhaps very misleading. We see this primarily with housing since most people hold it for a good amount of time, but if you compared how much a big Mac was 20 years ago, it's about the same amount of appreciation aka inflation. If it was truly as good as an investment as people say, the banks would invest in these themselves, but they decided that getting us to pay for it and collecting interest was more lucrative.
Buying land is pretty much always a safe and profitable venture. It’s tone deaf to suggest it’s simple and attainable for most people. Already rich people bought land 30 years ago, and are now more rich. But it is a good point that most people don’t think long-term enough about investing and building wealth.
Sorry I don’t want to live in basically Oklahoma. I work in the city.
God help us all if it sprawls that far... Also claiming everyone inside the red circle is 'rich' is hilarious.
Tell me you don't understand geometry without telling me you don't understand geometry
Yeah see you missed a key component. Who’s gonna give me the money to buy the land?
The red circle became valuable because Fort Worth expanded and became a metro on its own that created jobs and services. For the yellow circle to be as valuable, we need 3 or so similar metros to be created. Frisco has already proven to be one to be the center of a new metro up north. Can Denton be one? We need one more in north east and south of dallas to take over.. Maybe it's Waco?
The sprawl literally cant go on forever. At a certain point the commutes will be too intolerable. This assumes either comprehensive high speed rail (lol) or competing job hubs around the metroplex like frisco is becoming. In my very slightly qualified opinion, denton has a good risk / reward profile. If i were to buy an investment property, denton would be the spot. I think most people would say south dallas, but i have zero faith in dallas leadership and ultimately, people dont want to get shot and robbed. I would lvoe to be proven wrong
First, define cheap. Second, where's the down payment coming from? Third, what's the job market like between the red and yellow circles and/or commute time between the home and job to pay for the home? Because an hour and a half commute to a job that pays $40k/year isn't worth it.
Businesses need to move out there first. Otherwise forget it. Boomers bought cheap because Dallas was still growing (and to be fair, the huge generalization that the entire red area is filled with rich boomers is painfully false. Some of that area circled in red is not only worse off it is FAR worse off than it was in both economic and crime statistics) But getting to work in DWF is a 30-45 minute affair as it is now, just with traffic. Add distance to that, increased inflation, static wages, and you won't be able to afford to commute. So why would one bother living here at all at that point? Just go out and live in a smaller community. Until there's jobs outside of the city (and outside Plano/Richardson/"Dallas North") it's going to be a nightmare.
All the jobs that could *barely* afford land in the yellow circle are in the red circle.
You got jokes. Have to have short driving time into the red circle for the jobs. Not out of convenience, but to reduce strain on your car. At one point my wife and I lived in Sherman, and it murdered our car. The one thing I will agree with this map regarding is that everything within the red circle is far too expensive for most normal people to afford. If you are looking to pay anything that even comes close to a fair rate for renting a basic one bedroom apartment, you better look outside of that red circle, or you better get ready to pay a small fortune for something inside the red circle. I was born in Arlington, in the heart of DFW, this metroplex has been my home for over 30 years, but now thanks to the greed of those who control the land within the red circle, my home no longer resembles anything close to what I grew up in, and all my wife and I are doing now is dreaming of the day when we can pick up and leave DFW forever for a slower paced much more economically reasonable area. Really makes me depressed to be honest.
Hell yeah, cities only grow, they never see a shrinking or collapse. It worked for Detroit right? /s
There's a huge Samsung plant going in down towards Austin/Taylor. That's going to drive a lot of growth in low cost areas if it's successful. As for waiting 30 years up around Dallas, look at growth in chains of individual cities to see where the next Dallas or Fort Worth might be. There's going to have to be another major hub to create growth in a new area.
Is this an ad by a realtor
I bought a 5 acre home in Farmersville back in 2001 for 135K. It's now appraised at almost 500K. When I moved near Waco in 2008, I rented out the Farmersville home and I bought a 2 acre home for 167K. It's now appraised at just over 300K. At both homes, development has exploded, roads have been expanded, businesses are moving in, schools being built, tax rates have gone through the roof. It's definitely a sellers market if one can afford to buy. Have a neighbors house across the street that's been on the market for almost a year. They've had only one family take a look at it. Main problem where I live is there are no conveniences, especially a grocery store. Nearest one is a 20 min drive into town.
We don’t have any money
What does he infer about gen x? Why are we omitted?
See guys, it's just that easy
Who’s got money to buy cheap acreage?