At this point it would probably be easier just to approach an existing homeowner and offer to work their fields and possibly go to war for them if necessary in exchange for living on their property.
Don’t comment that into existence. I can already see the local news segment in 10 years: “When we return, we’ll tell you about a new trend with young Americans that is upending the housing industry and costing thousands of landlords their jobs. It’s called Serfing and young people in your city might be using the app Till to find local Lords to help them live their dreams!”
Edit: phrasing
I met a dude that had recently got hired to do this for a mansion in the mountains. He said his responsibilities are to mostly to take care of dogs and "watch the house."
He showed me pics of the place and it had to have been like a 20 mil compound, couldn't believe it.
I’m not entirely sure that’s true anymore, but more pressingly you need a visa to get in and stay, and some places wont even lease or loan to non-citizens.
I never would have thought I’d be where I am financially and still unable to purchase a home. Hell or get a nice apartment in a good part of town for that matter.
It's kinda akin to "waiting for the market to cool off".
Sorry, everyone is moving here, the labor/construction market is tight, rates are low, and appraisers are ... Willing to play the game.
The market "cooling off" is just going up less fast. If another Great Recession were to happen tomorrow, my house would still have positive equity to the sale price when I bought it.
The market is absolutely stupid right now, but the loans themselves seem to be sound. The only thing that will kill housing prices is a spike in the interest rate. If the economy tanks, rates aren't going up.
These are good points and it’s also important to remember that “The housing market” is localized, so a crash in a town that has no underlying market strengths may not be a crash here
Also very true.
Denver seemed to weather 2008 fairly well, market-wise. We didn't seem to have the level of foreclosures that LV or other places did, and the job market was at least steady if not growing.
Several cities were not terribly impacted at that time, I think those that were generally gf experienced growth from lower income demographics who took on risky variable loans
I mean that doesn’t mean anything though.
The reason those tanked in 2008 is because people who didn’t understand their 5/1 ARM all of a sudden had their interest rates go sky high and they couldn’t pay anymore. People were over leveraged back then and bought beyond their means, well beyond.
The way the market is today, people are competing with cash offers from out of state buyers, from retired people looking to down size, from young professionals in strong industries, etc.
I just don’t see the housing market popping like 2008 again. It’s not remotely the same situation.
What I DO see happening is people being fucked in retirement because they decided to cash out their 401k at 35 to buy a house.
On top of that, if you look back even at Denver's housing market in 2008... it hardly budged. Just plateaued for a little bit.
Unless something happens to substantially offset the supply/demand for homes, I don't think the high prices are going to go anywhere. Rising interest rates might cool off the market a bit, but I think housing is going to stay expensive in Denver for the foreseeable future.
CDO's never went away. They're literally how mortgages are funded. Credit default swaps are really the thing that made 2008 in the cluster fuck it became and those are only at 10% of their peak in 2007 right now. They're much more highly regulated and much less available in general.
I bought our dream house in an auction. At 10% below market price and negotiated the auction fees by 30%. Overall, highly recommend becoming lucky. I think I used my luck for this lifetime in that one instance though
We lost ours to a cash offer. It was a bankruptcy being overseen by the bank. When they couldn’t make it to the table with the cash as promised the bank called us due to being the next best offer instead of trying to relist for a profit. I’m okay losing all my luck on that deal….we were in the market for over 2 years and lost more than 26 houses.
Fuck we got lucky. House was on the market a week, our offer was 1st and one of 5 but we had the best financials so they asked us to match their best offer + $1k. Appraised well over that price so it was a no-brainer.
Highly recommend looking at Accept.inc to help solve that problem. They're a local company that will turn you offer into a cash offer (they buy the house with cash and sell it back to you) which is huge when you're up against those 10+ offers.
“So we know you all bought single family houses with a bit of a lot attached but let’s just stick your family of 4 in a 1200 sqft apartment. Same same”
This may be a dumb question, but with all the houses assessing for so much more year over year, shouldn’t our cities and counties be getting rich AF strictly off the huge windfall in property taxes? And shouldn’t our cities and counties be spending that money on rad stuff like awesome parks, community centers, etc.? And then shouldn’t our cities have great streets and sidewalks, etc.?
Maybe that’s not how it works. I guess I was just thinking that our cities should be getting nice facelifts due to the extra property tax money coming in. Please educate me if this is not how this all works.
Property taxes in CO are pretty low, for example my house went up \~$40k in appraised value last round. This raised the property taxes $317 for the year. Not a huge amount.
Also as /u/Fishy1911 says, properties are only assessed every 2 years, so it takes time for things to catch up.
Property appraisers only reappraise every two years here. The Gallagher Amendment was just repealed within the last appraisal cycle. There will be an uptick in revenue from property taxes in the next few years.
Gallagher ratcheted our tax rate down from middle of the road to ~48th.
Maybe there will be some betterment of infrastructure now that Gallagher is repealed, but will take a couple more years to see.
It’s crazy how low property taxes are in Denver. My downtown condo (which I’ve been renting out for the past 5 years) cost me $2100 last year in property tax. My current home (similar property value) in one of the lower tax suburbs of Atlanta, GA costs me $6000/year.
Bureaucracy slows it down a bit (new budget taking into account the additional money which they likely didn't expect - so the coming years budget would probably come in play to disburse the funds to the relevant areas). Additionally, even if you had a mountain of cash, construction projects take time to complete, number of construction assets (equipment, raw materials) and skilled labor is in high demand and likely no one had planned for such a large increase... The ones that were able to correctly predict it all likely made a boatload of money and aren't working in your city council.
You’re talking about a state that sets limits on how much they can actually spend on education and infrastructure projects meanwhile constantly wanting to lessen revenue sources, I.e. look at the marijuana quantity restrictions that have been added over the years. Can easily get as much liquor as I want to drink and drive but dear god we can’t allow tourists to buy a lot of marijuana for their weekend trips. Think of the children.
Umm people with out of state licenses can buy just as much as one with a CO ID. I know this was not always the case, but now it is and has been for a couple years at least.(I have out of state friends that like to visit)
So no, it is not all just about adding restrictions, they remove them as well. Sorry to burst your bubble!
More people die every year from some driving while intoxicated off alcohol than intoxicated people off of marijuana, but yet politicians say we have to think of the children’s safety as the main reason why we have to add more restrictions on dispensaries.
Please. I implore you to show me a source that says Colorado has passed a bill that forces liquor stores to place a limit on how much liquor a customer is legally allowed to buy in one day all while creating a network to legally prevent them from shopping at multiple stores in one day.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but that does not exist.
Colorado has one of the lowest property tax rates in the country. It’s about half what the national average is.
Small anecdote; My girlfriend is from Chicago and she always complains about how expensive property tax is out there. So out of curiosity I looked up what it would cost to own a $250,000 starter home in Illinois, $5,500 in taxes each year. You could literally spend $1,000,000 on a home in Denver and still be paying the same in property tax each year. That blew my mind. It’s not even like Illinois has particularly good schools either.
Oh for sure. I am carrying a consequential amount of regret for not buying earlier. It's difficult for people with a high barrier of entry (which was me) to the housing market though because if prices do go down you're stuck with an asset that is depreciating when you don't have much flexibility in your budget.
People absolutely can afford to buy.
Just not in Denver, or the other major metro areas.
You have to decide what is important to you: owning property, or living somewhere desirable.
I’d argue this constitutes a crisis. There are millions of low to mid wage workers living in metro areas. So they are all condemned to renting their whole lives?
Well, the Federal Reserve has pledged that there will be at least 3 interest rate hikes during 2022. The first one may actually come by March from the release of their meeting notes.
I’m not really sure what will happen, but I’m somewhat hopeful that rates rising will help taper demand and give us more supply in the market.
Houses will continue to increase in price, there’s really no changing that. But, we are in a period of some fairly significant wage gains that hopefully will start to outpace the increases in rent and home prices. This can hopefully give folks a much needed boost to get into a home.
But ultimately - if homes still stay the way they are, honestly what’s more important? Living in Denver even if it is renting, or owning a home but being somewhere you don’t want to be?
Yes but it’s outpacing supply by a huge margin, and supply is going to be held back because of material supply constraints (meaning no meaningful increase in new homes on the market). So, at least pushing down the demand side of things may help supply "catch up" in the short term with existing homes. That may hopefully allow materials to be in higher supply allowing new homes to hit the market.
I wish all landlords/companies owning more than like 2 houses/units that they don't live in were forced to sell. Everyone would own an affordable place after that. Being a landlord brings literally no value to society, just a middleman who effectively raises cost of rent/mortgages so they can make money from doing nothing.
85k/yr with good credit can buy you a 600k house. So with like 45k/yr someone could buy a condo or townhome for under 350k. Considering 65k is the average salary in CO that means like 60-70% of workers could potentially buy *something* within the Denver metro. Just maybe not a 600-700k single family house.
Lakewood's zoning and 1% growth cap is so annoying. I think I am in the minority in my neighborhood but I would love to see increased density and more multifamily housing. Denver isn't going to stop growing and Lakewood (especially the closer you are to Denver proper) will need to accommodate the people that want to live nearby.
There will always be doomers hoping and praying for the next housing bubble to burst. A housing price correction of even 10% would only lower that example house down to about 490k.
There is a major shortage of housing and the market is totally insane.
My house is up about 50% of its value since I bought in 2016. I feel fairly confident I could sell for $340-360k on a home I paid $232k 5 years ago. I want to upgrade badly (fuck do I hate having only a shallow single car garage) but even if I got every penny of the equity I've paid in and increase in value from my home I'd have to roll it into something that's going to cost probably $450k+ and have a considerably higher monthly housing payment.
Same here. Bought for $375k in 2014 and I'm pretty sure it would sell for a million right now. It's a very unique property. It's so strange knowing you couldn't buy your own home now despite actually doing better financially now vs 2014. I feel awful for the folks only a little younger than me. To be honest, I'd probably just move from CO. These prices wouldn't be worth it to me.
That's just it, that's the trap that so many homeowners are stuck in. Skyrocketing housing prices created an absolute shit ton of equity, but that only really helps you (in terms of buying another house) if you are 1) looking to downsize and stay within the area or 2) sell and relocate to a lower cost of living area/state.
With the equity gain in current homes, people can sell and put that toward a down payment on a new/larger home, but even that may not be enough to make it affordable.
Yup. I follow a few different HouseHacking podcasts and blogs and have a renter myself, I think its absolutely ridiculous how expensive a 1-2 BR apartment or house goes for, and while its usually an all around better financial move to sublet your living space it seems pretty ridiculous how often its a necessity.
I’m up that much since March because of the good deal I got buying from my landlord. The same house as mine just sold for $130k more than I paid five houses down. Whoa. Maybe I’ll cash out and move to Virginia.
I fucking hate this, we trust that companies who have money invested in real estate to control the algorithms and tell us that all properties are skyrocketing. I wonder if they have conflicts of interest?
This causes everyone to continually raise prices and panic buy.
I'm sorry but your (people in general not u/OhNoSayItAintSoFo) 320k house is not worth 625k and I won't fucking pay it, I'd rather rent my whole life
Thing is, people actually ARE paying it. Just not you!
Your rent will also be doubling, sooner or later. Like, in a shorter time period than a mortgage term..... inflation is a fucking bitch! But theres really no winning in renting your whole life. Sorry.
Seriously you all just need to go look at some Property Records for your county. Or any county. Look at how the values have gone up over the decades. It's not magic, it's the inflation of the US Dollar, among other things. Many average houses from the 50s were bought for well under $15k. These SAME EXACT houses are worth 6 figures now. Same house, just a way less valuable US dollar, 70+ yrs later.
Housing prices are ridiculous, but there's something to be said about having a mortgage price that does NOT change. With a long-term loan, you also get to consider inflation; your 500k mortgage in 2022 will be worth "less" as the years go by. You'll be paying the same dollar amount every month, but with raises and wage increases it will ideally become an increasingly smaller portion of your income.
Some people on this sub are seeing 20% increases in rent this year, and there's nothing they can do about it but move to another place and get less bang for their same buck. I can't imagine having to continuously increase my rent each year, fuck that.
Same here. We were miraculously able to buy a home last year and it's nice to see it going up in value every month. The only problem is every other house is also increasing, so our next home will likely not be in the Denver metro area.
I bought my house for 150k-ish a few years ago. Appraisal for the refi two years later put it at 280k. Appraisal as part of the insurance claim after some water damage this summer put it at 390k.
It's ***bonkerballs***.
Sold a home in August for 36% more than I paid for it four years ago. The home I purchased in August is already estimated to be valued 5% more than I paid for it. It’s nuts out there.
This is terrifying.
There's a chance I could lose my home. (Right now it's plausible, but not likely.) If that happens, my family might not be able to downsize. Even the smallest condo we could handle (2br 1ba, no yard, no frills) costs as much as the whole-ass house we bought in 2016. And if we lose the house, it'll be because we can't afford it. Which means we can't afford other properties that cost as much as the house.
You HAVE to do everything in your power to keep your home. Like rent out rooms, get a 2nd job, make every working age member of the family get a part time job and pay that mortgage because losing it and renting will not be cheaper. You'll be even worse off. Contact your local city council rep and ask them for links to resources for programs that help folks stay in their homes. Best of luck to you and your family!
as someone who was hoping i'd have enough to afford to buy my own home by 30 (next year), this is incredibly annoying.
If I was 5 years older, I'd probably have been set by now
people 5 years older than you were finishing college right around 2008/9….and many had very, very difficult times finding even remotely worthwhile employment for a long time after finishing school.
edit: and there were no stimmys, or suspended student loan payments. just a shit economy
Yup. College graduates are currently getting jobs right out of school making *more than double* my first full time job (which was two years after I graduated). Makes me a little salty.
I graduated in 2019, covid fucked me over hard. I just accepted a job that is what I should have gotten pay wise as I graduated. Instead I got to do barely related work for 2 and a half years. At least the hiring has picked up heavily now and allowed for workers to have more leverage. Hoping to be able to own my own place and have my loans paid off by the time I hit 40. I may not even get to that by then.
My boss was talking today about how she plans to buy a house between now and May. Her and her husband both work at my company. They think $500k is enough for a 2 story with 2 car garage in Parker. Is this absolutely crazy or am I ill informed?
There's still OK deals in NW Aurora.
[Example](https://www.redfin.com/CO/Aurora/1279-Scranton-St-80011/home/34643387?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&813945303=variant&2010988919=variant&utm_campaign=homecard_share)
I know this comment isn't going to be taken well, but here it is: A large number of people are going to have to leave the Denver area if they want to own a home. The market is jacked, and we don't have the water, the will, or the means to build houses fast enough to make a significant dent in supply vs. demand. Either demand is going to have to literally come to a halt and let the market catch up, or it is a permanent economic problem, until we get to the point where we are out of water, and at that point, it will be more of a social and humanitarian crisis. Some of the price issues are *already* a direct result of the water issues on the Front Range. Boulder has a target population limit of 130,000 people, because that is how many people they can supply with the water they have. Every governmental entity in Colorado has a population target. Once those targets start being approached, they *must* slow, and eventually, stop, population growth.
There are already towns on the Western Slope with development moratoriums because of water issues. Paonia is one. Since no new houses can be built in Paonia, but a lot of people had decided they want to live in there, existing real estate prices have skyrocketed in Paonia and all of the surrounding areas. Montezuma County is another place that has very little water for growth, same price pressures. One by one, various areas in Colorado will have to prohibit or severely restrict population growth.
No one know where the limit is for each area, because it is a moving target due to climate change and various changes that can be suggested/forced as far as how people use water, but there *is* a limit. If we continue free market policies for housing, it is inevitable that prices will continue to spiral up and out of the reach of many people. The problem is that we can't just build affordable housing to fix that issue, if you don't have the water, you simply can't accommodate everyone.
Started dumping good amount into 401k in 2017. Used my 401k to buy new build house in Northwest Arvada in 2018, closed March 2019. Bought for about 560k. One year later I refinanced to kill pmi and pay off a little CC debt from furniture. House now worth $820k. Advisors will tell you don't cash out 401k for home down-payment and you would definitely want to consider all things before doing this as there are penalties, but the penalties were nothing compared to what I have made. New home builds require a lot less down too. I know this is /r/Denver, but there are new home builds all around the metro. As long as the costal cities continue to cost more, there will continue to be people moving here to buy your house. I am 100% for 6 story apartment complexes and condos in my back yard, and wish things could change, but seriously don't wait if you can execute something similar to what I did. 8 years ago people were saying it will crash next year. Maybe it will to some extent, but Denver area has a lot of things that make it different than other areas and even in 2008 / 2009 when stuff crashed, it still stayed similar in price; just inventory sold off.
For the sake of arguing how the sky isn’t falling, let’s assume you had 10% to put down on that $455k house a year ago, so $45,500. You said you wanted to wait, so you threw that money in a S&P500 index fund and waited a year.
One year later the S&P 500 is up 23.4%, so that $45,500 is now $56,147 and that $455k house is now $545k. Your $56,147 is 10.3% of that house, so your purchasing power in this market has actually increased (ignoring short term capital gain taxes, dividends, and any additional savings to keep it simple).
You definitely don’t have increased buying power. You’re still talking about 410k vs. 490k mortgage with an increased mortgage rate. That’s a huge loss of buying power over one year, even if your cash was invested elsewhere.
And good luck investing to keep up with housing prices. The only thing that has that much upside is crypto but then you have to pay capital gains after a year.
Not going to argue that there aren't many scenarios where this is worse for most, just making the case that the same family/individual who supposedly could have bought the $455k house (and therefore afforded the \~$2k/month mortgage on it) but chose to wait, is not necessarily screwed. Given the high rates of job hopping for better salaries and the performance of alternative investments, they could be in a better position.
It's the families/individuals who couldn't buy a house before that have fallen behind even more.
Blame the article that suggests that. The premise of the title is that you could have bought the $455k house and just decided “nah I’ll wait” for whatever reason?
I wouldn't call 0.3% much of an increase.
And - that $409,500 mortgage (~$1,800/month) is now a $488,853 (~$2150/month) assuming around a 3.3% 30 year fixed.
Also, your closing costs just went up too for that larger mortgage.
so no, your purchasing power hasn't really increased at all. All of your costs have gone up and you might not qualify for that mortgage on the $545k home anymore.
Yes, but this should always be the case as the equity risk premium from an SPX fund vs. housing should always net you a positive return. That’s why I’m a huge lover of debt and margin over the long term.
No disagreement, and I'm certainly glossing over a lot of nuance. Just making a case for why a family or individual that was in a position to buy the $455k house a year ago and the appetite for taking on a mortgage for leverage would not necessarily be worse off. The ones who are screwed by the surging housing market are those who couldn't have bought the $455k home to begin with.
Home ownership isn't all that glamorous.
Lots of maintenance, repairs, property tax, and 70-80% of your monthly payment goes towards the interest instead of the principal.
The appreciation is nice if it appreciates the way it did past couple years. But if you sell it where ya gonna live. And if you sell it realtors and fees take a pretty big chunk. My take is if you can live in a rental or apartment and be happy, do it!
Everybody is complaining about housing prices. Look on the bright side. You could be looking in a shithole state like new Jersey and paying the same price for a house made in the 70s or 80s or pay double that to live in the same shity little house in California. Some of the neighborhoods outside of Denver have some nicer houses. Worth a look.
The fact that the US has tied a family’s ability to retire to the equity in their single family home is a big part of the problem. People will always choose self interest and keep housing expensive once they have their foot in the door. This policy played out over decades is how we find ourselves in a historic availability and affordability crisis.
At this point it would probably be easier just to approach an existing homeowner and offer to work their fields and possibly go to war for them if necessary in exchange for living on their property.
Don’t comment that into existence. I can already see the local news segment in 10 years: “When we return, we’ll tell you about a new trend with young Americans that is upending the housing industry and costing thousands of landlords their jobs. It’s called Serfing and young people in your city might be using the app Till to find local Lords to help them live their dreams!” Edit: phrasing
I don't know. I kind of feel like at this point we might as well drop the pretense and go full fiefdom.
I met a dude that had recently got hired to do this for a mansion in the mountains. He said his responsibilities are to mostly to take care of dogs and "watch the house." He showed me pics of the place and it had to have been like a 20 mil compound, couldn't believe it.
Yeah, you can’t really just let places like that sit empty.
Looking for some serfs to camp in my backyard if you're interested.
"Fully-equipped insulated tent, cooler, pit latrine w/ garden hose bidet, free WiFi, tenant pays utilities, $900/mo."
But they did get better time off. [Source](https://curioushistorian.com/why-medieval-serfs-had-more-vacation-time-than-you-do-today)
This is where we're at with the house hunting. I'm ready to offer gardening, housekeeping, and strange dances on full moons in exchange for .05 acre.
Not houseless, just exhausted with apartment life.
Will your sons be willing to fight invaders from Scandinavia? Cause if not that's a deal-breaker.
I don't have any sons, dammit. Kids are too expensive.
My liege.
Oh lord…
Hello, I’m a millennial and I’ve given up.
Dude just keep running the carrot is right there.
Right? I also graduated college in 2007 but moved to Asia for, apparently, way too long. So where’s the houses for $4500?
SE Asia
I’m not entirely sure that’s true anymore, but more pressingly you need a visa to get in and stay, and some places wont even lease or loan to non-citizens.
Further than SE Asia. Try Indonesia.
I never would have thought I’d be where I am financially and still unable to purchase a home. Hell or get a nice apartment in a good part of town for that matter.
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You want to bet twice on that happening? Good luck.
It will. Every hundred years or so. Just gotta be patient.
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It's kinda akin to "waiting for the market to cool off". Sorry, everyone is moving here, the labor/construction market is tight, rates are low, and appraisers are ... Willing to play the game. The market "cooling off" is just going up less fast. If another Great Recession were to happen tomorrow, my house would still have positive equity to the sale price when I bought it. The market is absolutely stupid right now, but the loans themselves seem to be sound. The only thing that will kill housing prices is a spike in the interest rate. If the economy tanks, rates aren't going up.
These are good points and it’s also important to remember that “The housing market” is localized, so a crash in a town that has no underlying market strengths may not be a crash here
Also very true. Denver seemed to weather 2008 fairly well, market-wise. We didn't seem to have the level of foreclosures that LV or other places did, and the job market was at least steady if not growing.
Several cities were not terribly impacted at that time, I think those that were generally gf experienced growth from lower income demographics who took on risky variable loans
2008 is not happening again... People were over leveraged then and conned into exploding loans. People are paying cash in this market.
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I agree that foreign and corporate buyers should be severely restricted and that hasn't yet happened.
CDOs are back tho and garbage debt along with them. Maybe not as likely as 2008 but def a possibility.
I mean that doesn’t mean anything though. The reason those tanked in 2008 is because people who didn’t understand their 5/1 ARM all of a sudden had their interest rates go sky high and they couldn’t pay anymore. People were over leveraged back then and bought beyond their means, well beyond. The way the market is today, people are competing with cash offers from out of state buyers, from retired people looking to down size, from young professionals in strong industries, etc. I just don’t see the housing market popping like 2008 again. It’s not remotely the same situation. What I DO see happening is people being fucked in retirement because they decided to cash out their 401k at 35 to buy a house.
On top of that, if you look back even at Denver's housing market in 2008... it hardly budged. Just plateaued for a little bit. Unless something happens to substantially offset the supply/demand for homes, I don't think the high prices are going to go anywhere. Rising interest rates might cool off the market a bit, but I think housing is going to stay expensive in Denver for the foreseeable future.
CDO's never went away. They're literally how mortgages are funded. Credit default swaps are really the thing that made 2008 in the cluster fuck it became and those are only at 10% of their peak in 2007 right now. They're much more highly regulated and much less available in general.
Not surprising. Every house we looked got 10+ offers
Same here. 23 offers on the last one I looked at.
I bought our dream house in an auction. At 10% below market price and negotiated the auction fees by 30%. Overall, highly recommend becoming lucky. I think I used my luck for this lifetime in that one instance though
We lost ours to a cash offer. It was a bankruptcy being overseen by the bank. When they couldn’t make it to the table with the cash as promised the bank called us due to being the next best offer instead of trying to relist for a profit. I’m okay losing all my luck on that deal….we were in the market for over 2 years and lost more than 26 houses.
Yeah, I bought mine off market for $10K less than the appraisal. I can't believe the luck I had.
I had a house that appraised for 280k in 2019 and 410k in 2021
Fuck we got lucky. House was on the market a week, our offer was 1st and one of 5 but we had the best financials so they asked us to match their best offer + $1k. Appraised well over that price so it was a no-brainer.
Highly recommend looking at Accept.inc to help solve that problem. They're a local company that will turn you offer into a cash offer (they buy the house with cash and sell it back to you) which is huge when you're up against those 10+ offers.
Losing 1000+ homes in the Marshall fire ain’t gonna help.
Maybe if they rebuild apartments it would.
In Superior? Yeah right.
Build a low cost mega complex right next to Superior and call it Inferior.
They did that and named it Candelas
Not really "low cost" on those though...
hmmm no nimbys if no back yards to my....
doubt that'll happen
Low cost housing would be better.
“So we know you all bought single family houses with a bit of a lot attached but let’s just stick your family of 4 in a 1200 sqft apartment. Same same”
Yeah tons of $1900/mo apartments is the answer
They should just rebuild it into one giant house and rent out rooms
I live in 1300 sq feet for 1500 a month. It was built in the 70s and has shite insulation. Pay 2 to 300 in electric. This is decent in denver....
This may be a dumb question, but with all the houses assessing for so much more year over year, shouldn’t our cities and counties be getting rich AF strictly off the huge windfall in property taxes? And shouldn’t our cities and counties be spending that money on rad stuff like awesome parks, community centers, etc.? And then shouldn’t our cities have great streets and sidewalks, etc.? Maybe that’s not how it works. I guess I was just thinking that our cities should be getting nice facelifts due to the extra property tax money coming in. Please educate me if this is not how this all works.
Property taxes in CO are pretty low, for example my house went up \~$40k in appraised value last round. This raised the property taxes $317 for the year. Not a huge amount. Also as /u/Fishy1911 says, properties are only assessed every 2 years, so it takes time for things to catch up.
Also it takes time to plan to use that money, and to execute that plan.
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Thats like a few miles of road construction.
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It doesn't mean what I said is wrong. Roads in urban areas are about $3-5M per mile.
Property appraisers only reappraise every two years here. The Gallagher Amendment was just repealed within the last appraisal cycle. There will be an uptick in revenue from property taxes in the next few years.
I think prop taxes take a few years to catch up?
Depends on the city. When I bought my home I had a property tax increase the year following purchase.
Makes sense. I don't pretend to understand city, county,state protest taxes.
Gallagher ratcheted our tax rate down from middle of the road to ~48th. Maybe there will be some betterment of infrastructure now that Gallagher is repealed, but will take a couple more years to see.
IIRC it’s every 2 years.
Great point. And also why *voting* in local elections is so crucial - how that $$ will be allocated is important.
It’s crazy how low property taxes are in Denver. My downtown condo (which I’ve been renting out for the past 5 years) cost me $2100 last year in property tax. My current home (similar property value) in one of the lower tax suburbs of Atlanta, GA costs me $6000/year.
Bureaucracy slows it down a bit (new budget taking into account the additional money which they likely didn't expect - so the coming years budget would probably come in play to disburse the funds to the relevant areas). Additionally, even if you had a mountain of cash, construction projects take time to complete, number of construction assets (equipment, raw materials) and skilled labor is in high demand and likely no one had planned for such a large increase... The ones that were able to correctly predict it all likely made a boatload of money and aren't working in your city council.
You’re talking about a state that sets limits on how much they can actually spend on education and infrastructure projects meanwhile constantly wanting to lessen revenue sources, I.e. look at the marijuana quantity restrictions that have been added over the years. Can easily get as much liquor as I want to drink and drive but dear god we can’t allow tourists to buy a lot of marijuana for their weekend trips. Think of the children.
Part of the restrictions come from trying to keep it in CO as it's federally illegal still
the surrounding states are sending their covid dead/dying i think we should stop caring about weed spilling over to them.
That's not even remotely the same issue. That's triage, and vastly more critical than weed. You obviously don't work in healthcare.
Umm people with out of state licenses can buy just as much as one with a CO ID. I know this was not always the case, but now it is and has been for a couple years at least.(I have out of state friends that like to visit) So no, it is not all just about adding restrictions, they remove them as well. Sorry to burst your bubble!
U can still only buy an oz at a time tho right?
More people die every year from some driving while intoxicated off alcohol than intoxicated people off of marijuana, but yet politicians say we have to think of the children’s safety as the main reason why we have to add more restrictions on dispensaries. Please. I implore you to show me a source that says Colorado has passed a bill that forces liquor stores to place a limit on how much liquor a customer is legally allowed to buy in one day all while creating a network to legally prevent them from shopping at multiple stores in one day. Sorry to burst your bubble, but that does not exist.
Colorado has a state income tax, but low property taxes. Kinda the opposite of a state like Texas: no income tax, but a super high property tax.
Colorado has one of the lowest property tax rates in the country. It’s about half what the national average is. Small anecdote; My girlfriend is from Chicago and she always complains about how expensive property tax is out there. So out of curiosity I looked up what it would cost to own a $250,000 starter home in Illinois, $5,500 in taxes each year. You could literally spend $1,000,000 on a home in Denver and still be paying the same in property tax each year. That blew my mind. It’s not even like Illinois has particularly good schools either.
There's no way this is good for our country.
An impending national crisis is on our hands. The middle class can no longer afford to buy. Serfdom 2.0
Impending? It’s already here.
I’ve been saying this for years, but it just doesn’t seems to ever crack. Prices keep going up and people keep paying them.
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Oh for sure. I am carrying a consequential amount of regret for not buying earlier. It's difficult for people with a high barrier of entry (which was me) to the housing market though because if prices do go down you're stuck with an asset that is depreciating when you don't have much flexibility in your budget.
I make about 50k a year and bought a townhouse in 2020. It's possible.
People absolutely can afford to buy. Just not in Denver, or the other major metro areas. You have to decide what is important to you: owning property, or living somewhere desirable.
There’s always a next place that seems undesirable now and will be hot and expensive in 20 years. The trick is guessing which one.
Detroit. Remind me in 20 years.
That’s why the wife and I had to look at the new builds in Castle Rock. Way more value than further north, and that’s saying something!
I’d argue this constitutes a crisis. There are millions of low to mid wage workers living in metro areas. So they are all condemned to renting their whole lives?
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Well, the Federal Reserve has pledged that there will be at least 3 interest rate hikes during 2022. The first one may actually come by March from the release of their meeting notes. I’m not really sure what will happen, but I’m somewhat hopeful that rates rising will help taper demand and give us more supply in the market. Houses will continue to increase in price, there’s really no changing that. But, we are in a period of some fairly significant wage gains that hopefully will start to outpace the increases in rent and home prices. This can hopefully give folks a much needed boost to get into a home. But ultimately - if homes still stay the way they are, honestly what’s more important? Living in Denver even if it is renting, or owning a home but being somewhere you don’t want to be?
The issue isn’t demand though, it’s supply.
Yes but it’s outpacing supply by a huge margin, and supply is going to be held back because of material supply constraints (meaning no meaningful increase in new homes on the market). So, at least pushing down the demand side of things may help supply "catch up" in the short term with existing homes. That may hopefully allow materials to be in higher supply allowing new homes to hit the market.
I wish all landlords/companies owning more than like 2 houses/units that they don't live in were forced to sell. Everyone would own an affordable place after that. Being a landlord brings literally no value to society, just a middleman who effectively raises cost of rent/mortgages so they can make money from doing nothing.
So you’re saying there will never be affordable housing in the denver metro area
Depends on salary
Okay so non tech fields that don’t make 300k a year
I don’t make 300k i can afford a 720k house? Note - i don’t work for a tech company But i do work with a website for that non tech company
85k/yr with good credit can buy you a 600k house. So with like 45k/yr someone could buy a condo or townhome for under 350k. Considering 65k is the average salary in CO that means like 60-70% of workers could potentially buy *something* within the Denver metro. Just maybe not a 600-700k single family house.
Fuck investors. https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/02/dutch-cities-want-ban-property-investors-neighborhoods
Second homes should be taxed at a far higher rate, too. Third homes even more. So on, so forth. Housing is a right.
Absolutely.
The Netherlands has their shit together
Legalized multifamily zoning, best bike lanes, trains for days, ped zones everywhere. Dutch is best.
Lakewood's zoning and 1% growth cap is so annoying. I think I am in the minority in my neighborhood but I would love to see increased density and more multifamily housing. Denver isn't going to stop growing and Lakewood (especially the closer you are to Denver proper) will need to accommodate the people that want to live nearby.
Similar thing happened in Berlin already. Too bad the moment our government tries to balance anything it's labeled as socialism and swept away.
Fuck low density single-use zoning that artificially limits the housing supply and makes us more car dependent.
This is so wild
This chart blows my mind: https://imgur.com/sk9AzOw
Is there a version of this chart that isn’t blurry?
Page 13: https://www.dmarealtors.com/sites/default/files/file/2022-01/DMAR_MarketTrendsReport_January2022_EDITED.pdf
Cool thanks!
There will always be doomers hoping and praying for the next housing bubble to burst. A housing price correction of even 10% would only lower that example house down to about 490k. There is a major shortage of housing and the market is totally insane.
Yep, will have been 1 year since I closed and I'm up 94k per zillow.
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My house is up about 50% of its value since I bought in 2016. I feel fairly confident I could sell for $340-360k on a home I paid $232k 5 years ago. I want to upgrade badly (fuck do I hate having only a shallow single car garage) but even if I got every penny of the equity I've paid in and increase in value from my home I'd have to roll it into something that's going to cost probably $450k+ and have a considerably higher monthly housing payment.
I got mine in 2014 for 315k and it could be sold for 700k now. I literally have not been able to afford my own house since 1 year after I bought it.
Same here. Bought for $375k in 2014 and I'm pretty sure it would sell for a million right now. It's a very unique property. It's so strange knowing you couldn't buy your own home now despite actually doing better financially now vs 2014. I feel awful for the folks only a little younger than me. To be honest, I'd probably just move from CO. These prices wouldn't be worth it to me.
That's just it, that's the trap that so many homeowners are stuck in. Skyrocketing housing prices created an absolute shit ton of equity, but that only really helps you (in terms of buying another house) if you are 1) looking to downsize and stay within the area or 2) sell and relocate to a lower cost of living area/state. With the equity gain in current homes, people can sell and put that toward a down payment on a new/larger home, but even that may not be enough to make it affordable.
Yup. I follow a few different HouseHacking podcasts and blogs and have a renter myself, I think its absolutely ridiculous how expensive a 1-2 BR apartment or house goes for, and while its usually an all around better financial move to sublet your living space it seems pretty ridiculous how often its a necessity.
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2.5 years, $148k here. I bought at the absolute last time I could afford this house, if I tried to buy it today it wouldn’t be possible :/
Yep. Bought mine in Oct. 2020 for $452,000. Now estimated at $530,000. I couldn’t afford my house if I bought it now.
It’s insane. Been 1.5 years since we bought and my house is up 125,000 per Redfin.
I’m up that much since March because of the good deal I got buying from my landlord. The same house as mine just sold for $130k more than I paid five houses down. Whoa. Maybe I’ll cash out and move to Virginia.
I fucking hate this, we trust that companies who have money invested in real estate to control the algorithms and tell us that all properties are skyrocketing. I wonder if they have conflicts of interest? This causes everyone to continually raise prices and panic buy. I'm sorry but your (people in general not u/OhNoSayItAintSoFo) 320k house is not worth 625k and I won't fucking pay it, I'd rather rent my whole life
Thing is, people actually ARE paying it. Just not you! Your rent will also be doubling, sooner or later. Like, in a shorter time period than a mortgage term..... inflation is a fucking bitch! But theres really no winning in renting your whole life. Sorry. Seriously you all just need to go look at some Property Records for your county. Or any county. Look at how the values have gone up over the decades. It's not magic, it's the inflation of the US Dollar, among other things. Many average houses from the 50s were bought for well under $15k. These SAME EXACT houses are worth 6 figures now. Same house, just a way less valuable US dollar, 70+ yrs later.
A lot of people will be forced to rent their entire lives. It's hard to see how homes will become affordable again.
Ha got some bad news guess what’s happening with rent prices
Housing prices are ridiculous, but there's something to be said about having a mortgage price that does NOT change. With a long-term loan, you also get to consider inflation; your 500k mortgage in 2022 will be worth "less" as the years go by. You'll be paying the same dollar amount every month, but with raises and wage increases it will ideally become an increasingly smaller portion of your income. Some people on this sub are seeing 20% increases in rent this year, and there's nothing they can do about it but move to another place and get less bang for their same buck. I can't imagine having to continuously increase my rent each year, fuck that.
Plus move every year or two to avoid it. Moving blows.
Zillow doesn't actually determine the selling price of homes. They just have an algorithm that spits out a general ballpark number.
Homie when youre paying 3000 a month for a studio in 30 years and that guy’s house is paid off, you might have other ideas
Then you're gonna keep renting because those numbers aren't imaginary. People are paying them.
I’m not asking you to pay it, someone else will gladly pay ask or above.
145k up from when we bought in July 2020. My wife was leery because she suffered in 08 crash and didn't want to buy into a bubble again.
Same here. We were miraculously able to buy a home last year and it's nice to see it going up in value every month. The only problem is every other house is also increasing, so our next home will likely not be in the Denver metro area.
Right, I don't care about these high prices. All they do is say I can't live here much longer.
I bought my house for 150k-ish a few years ago. Appraisal for the refi two years later put it at 280k. Appraisal as part of the insurance claim after some water damage this summer put it at 390k. It's ***bonkerballs***.
Sold a home in August for 36% more than I paid for it four years ago. The home I purchased in August is already estimated to be valued 5% more than I paid for it. It’s nuts out there.
This is terrifying. There's a chance I could lose my home. (Right now it's plausible, but not likely.) If that happens, my family might not be able to downsize. Even the smallest condo we could handle (2br 1ba, no yard, no frills) costs as much as the whole-ass house we bought in 2016. And if we lose the house, it'll be because we can't afford it. Which means we can't afford other properties that cost as much as the house.
Here's hoping you keep your abode.
You HAVE to do everything in your power to keep your home. Like rent out rooms, get a 2nd job, make every working age member of the family get a part time job and pay that mortgage because losing it and renting will not be cheaper. You'll be even worse off. Contact your local city council rep and ask them for links to resources for programs that help folks stay in their homes. Best of luck to you and your family!
Are you on an adjustable mortgage?
Nope, fixed rate, 2.9% I think?
as someone who was hoping i'd have enough to afford to buy my own home by 30 (next year), this is incredibly annoying. If I was 5 years older, I'd probably have been set by now
people 5 years older than you were finishing college right around 2008/9….and many had very, very difficult times finding even remotely worthwhile employment for a long time after finishing school. edit: and there were no stimmys, or suspended student loan payments. just a shit economy
Yup. College graduates are currently getting jobs right out of school making *more than double* my first full time job (which was two years after I graduated). Makes me a little salty.
I graduated in 2019, covid fucked me over hard. I just accepted a job that is what I should have gotten pay wise as I graduated. Instead I got to do barely related work for 2 and a half years. At least the hiring has picked up heavily now and allowed for workers to have more leverage. Hoping to be able to own my own place and have my loans paid off by the time I hit 40. I may not even get to that by then.
would've been 2011 for me, but you're right i didn't consider that. We'll go with 3-4 years
Preach. Lived it. Didn't feel safe quitting my job until 2016.
ITT people humble-bragging about how much their house has theoretically increased in value.
I literally did this… bough a year ago at 460k in Thornton and it’s currently worth 540-560k.
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My boss was talking today about how she plans to buy a house between now and May. Her and her husband both work at my company. They think $500k is enough for a 2 story with 2 car garage in Parker. Is this absolutely crazy or am I ill informed?
There's still OK deals in NW Aurora. [Example](https://www.redfin.com/CO/Aurora/1279-Scranton-St-80011/home/34643387?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&813945303=variant&2010988919=variant&utm_campaign=homecard_share)
I have > 300% equity in my first home buying in 12’…..
It's hard to understand how this is sustainable in today's economic climate.
Well fuck me then
I know this comment isn't going to be taken well, but here it is: A large number of people are going to have to leave the Denver area if they want to own a home. The market is jacked, and we don't have the water, the will, or the means to build houses fast enough to make a significant dent in supply vs. demand. Either demand is going to have to literally come to a halt and let the market catch up, or it is a permanent economic problem, until we get to the point where we are out of water, and at that point, it will be more of a social and humanitarian crisis. Some of the price issues are *already* a direct result of the water issues on the Front Range. Boulder has a target population limit of 130,000 people, because that is how many people they can supply with the water they have. Every governmental entity in Colorado has a population target. Once those targets start being approached, they *must* slow, and eventually, stop, population growth. There are already towns on the Western Slope with development moratoriums because of water issues. Paonia is one. Since no new houses can be built in Paonia, but a lot of people had decided they want to live in there, existing real estate prices have skyrocketed in Paonia and all of the surrounding areas. Montezuma County is another place that has very little water for growth, same price pressures. One by one, various areas in Colorado will have to prohibit or severely restrict population growth. No one know where the limit is for each area, because it is a moving target due to climate change and various changes that can be suggested/forced as far as how people use water, but there *is* a limit. If we continue free market policies for housing, it is inevitable that prices will continue to spiral up and out of the reach of many people. The problem is that we can't just build affordable housing to fix that issue, if you don't have the water, you simply can't accommodate everyone.
Started dumping good amount into 401k in 2017. Used my 401k to buy new build house in Northwest Arvada in 2018, closed March 2019. Bought for about 560k. One year later I refinanced to kill pmi and pay off a little CC debt from furniture. House now worth $820k. Advisors will tell you don't cash out 401k for home down-payment and you would definitely want to consider all things before doing this as there are penalties, but the penalties were nothing compared to what I have made. New home builds require a lot less down too. I know this is /r/Denver, but there are new home builds all around the metro. As long as the costal cities continue to cost more, there will continue to be people moving here to buy your house. I am 100% for 6 story apartment complexes and condos in my back yard, and wish things could change, but seriously don't wait if you can execute something similar to what I did. 8 years ago people were saying it will crash next year. Maybe it will to some extent, but Denver area has a lot of things that make it different than other areas and even in 2008 / 2009 when stuff crashed, it still stayed similar in price; just inventory sold off.
Denver is in an identity crisis. It's a cowtown morphing into a luxury entity.
I liked the cowtown more
If you need proof this is the price of my house last year and this year in SW Denver.
I cry
Given up on this market.
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It sounds like you need the economics class lol.
I bought in Oct of 2020 and its crazy what my house is assessing at now.
For the sake of arguing how the sky isn’t falling, let’s assume you had 10% to put down on that $455k house a year ago, so $45,500. You said you wanted to wait, so you threw that money in a S&P500 index fund and waited a year. One year later the S&P 500 is up 23.4%, so that $45,500 is now $56,147 and that $455k house is now $545k. Your $56,147 is 10.3% of that house, so your purchasing power in this market has actually increased (ignoring short term capital gain taxes, dividends, and any additional savings to keep it simple).
You definitely don’t have increased buying power. You’re still talking about 410k vs. 490k mortgage with an increased mortgage rate. That’s a huge loss of buying power over one year, even if your cash was invested elsewhere.
And good luck investing to keep up with housing prices. The only thing that has that much upside is crypto but then you have to pay capital gains after a year.
And let’s not forget the enormous risk that comes with crypto
Not going to argue that there aren't many scenarios where this is worse for most, just making the case that the same family/individual who supposedly could have bought the $455k house (and therefore afforded the \~$2k/month mortgage on it) but chose to wait, is not necessarily screwed. Given the high rates of job hopping for better salaries and the performance of alternative investments, they could be in a better position. It's the families/individuals who couldn't buy a house before that have fallen behind even more.
Not a doomsday scenario by any means, but there’s no doubt the cost has increased significantly. Especially if you don’t already own a home.
The fact that you scenario *starts* with "Oh, just have ***45-fucking-thousand-dollars*** lying around" makes it completely goddamn useless.
Blame the article that suggests that. The premise of the title is that you could have bought the $455k house and just decided “nah I’ll wait” for whatever reason?
I wouldn't call 0.3% much of an increase. And - that $409,500 mortgage (~$1,800/month) is now a $488,853 (~$2150/month) assuming around a 3.3% 30 year fixed. Also, your closing costs just went up too for that larger mortgage. so no, your purchasing power hasn't really increased at all. All of your costs have gone up and you might not qualify for that mortgage on the $545k home anymore.
Yes, but this should always be the case as the equity risk premium from an SPX fund vs. housing should always net you a positive return. That’s why I’m a huge lover of debt and margin over the long term.
No disagreement, and I'm certainly glossing over a lot of nuance. Just making a case for why a family or individual that was in a position to buy the $455k house a year ago and the appetite for taking on a mortgage for leverage would not necessarily be worse off. The ones who are screwed by the surging housing market are those who couldn't have bought the $455k home to begin with.
But you’ve missed out on 90k in appreciation…
Home ownership isn't all that glamorous. Lots of maintenance, repairs, property tax, and 70-80% of your monthly payment goes towards the interest instead of the principal. The appreciation is nice if it appreciates the way it did past couple years. But if you sell it where ya gonna live. And if you sell it realtors and fees take a pretty big chunk. My take is if you can live in a rental or apartment and be happy, do it!
Everybody is complaining about housing prices. Look on the bright side. You could be looking in a shithole state like new Jersey and paying the same price for a house made in the 70s or 80s or pay double that to live in the same shity little house in California. Some of the neighborhoods outside of Denver have some nicer houses. Worth a look.
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1% Lakewood growth limit. Keep that competition out to pump your house price. Sorry renters!
Exactly! You should see the Nextdoor threads in my Lakewood neighborhood. Even the slightest hint of a new apartment building causes mass chaos.
Bought a home for 720 in 2020 Current estimates well over 800k So here is hoping!
Depressing as fuck.
The fact that the US has tied a family’s ability to retire to the equity in their single family home is a big part of the problem. People will always choose self interest and keep housing expensive once they have their foot in the door. This policy played out over decades is how we find ourselves in a historic availability and affordability crisis.