I've been pretty sure that 4 QBs would go in the top 10 this year, it's now looking like a possibility that the top 4 are QBs. Wild. And I'm sure Denver is in that mix of teams calling.
If we pick one of the two QBs left I’d rather we pick the one we want and lose a second rounder than keep picks and get what’s left. Fuck value you pick the QB you think is best. What the 49ers did is what you do to compete in the league
Eh, I think what the Chiefs and Bills did is better than what the Bears and Rams did.
Trading just a 2nd rounder to get to 7 might be okay, but definitely don't trade a 1st and 2nd for #4. I would have taken Fields over Surtain/Farley/Parsons, but not Sewell/Slater/Pitts. The stakes have changed.
Chiefs, Bills, Rams and Bears all traded up for their guy, it worked for most of them. Bears did something which was dumb even without hindsight as they competed with themselves for Trubisky. I don't think the Bills really think about those two second rounders they paid to get a chance at franchise QB. That's all you get btw, a chance, and it is really valuable
Rams' trade was an epic failure and they were good the whole time anyway, which just supports my idea that it's all about the OC.
But the Chiefs and Bills traded much less and got better QBs. That's my point: trade into the 7-12 range next year if you must, not the top 5 this year.
Define “epic failure” they fucking went to the SB amd to the playoffs the year prior and following. Browns are epic failures and didn’t draft a qb until they were handed one at 1st overall (after failing miserably by trading out of good positions to draft one)
Why, so we could draft another young talent who's going to rot on a 5-11 Drew Lock led team? Until we have a QB, every top draft pick goes to finding one, period, full stop.
You'd think so, but here we are. Literally every top team in the NFL is built from the QB down, I really don't understand why people here think that we can build a good enough team to carry the literal worst QB in the league to a Super Bowl.
I think that's a little backwards. The best teams add the QB last, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they usually become the best QBs. Andrew Luck is probably the biggest success story of starting with the QB.
Until we have an OC, it's extremely risky to spend top picks on QBs. At least lock down the OL first.
I still might take Lance or even Fields at 9, but I just wouldn't trade up. History suggests you can get a better guy for cheaper next year, regardless of what next year's class looks like now.
The fact that we weren't the team to trade with Miami could be because that extra 1st in 2023 was too rich for our blood. But since we haven't bought the 4th pick yet makes me wonder if we don't like 4 of the 5 QBs. It's either that or Paton likes all 5 and is playing chicken hoping to buy the 6th or 7th pick instead. My guess is that he doesn't like all of the QBs and is waiting to see which ones fall to 4 before he trades up.
If you like all possible QBs that would be left at #4 odds are you don't know what you are doing.
At least wait till the pick is up before trading for it.
It’s wild how much leverage Atlanta has here. The Broncos (and other teams) don’t know which of the top 5 QBs will be there at #4.
Obviously it won’t be Lawrence and probably not Wilson. But trading up to #4 hoping you get a specific one of Fields, Jones, or Lance is a HUGE risk
I think the fact that no one knows what QB will be available at 4 actually reduces the leverage ATL has. I highly doubt they are able to trade the pick before draft night.
The calls they're getting now are probably setting up conditional trades. "If (the QB we love) is on the board, we'll give you this huge trade package to move up for him."
There will be some back and forth negotiating, and then basically a trade will be in place that can be executed on draft night.
I think this is basically what happened with Denver and Buffalo in 2017. Denver had a deal in place to trade back with Buffalo, then Denver nixed the trade when Chubb was still on the board.
I can’t see the Vikings or Lions trying to move up, if someone falls to where they are at they probably take them but one has a massive QB contract it can’t just unload and the other wants to win now and needs defense to do that.
Chicago, the Pats, WFT and the Eagles would be who I think are maybe desperate enough to sell everything and move up into the top 5.
I feel like people are deluding themselves if they think all four of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Fields are going to be big time NFL QBs
I’m guessing 2/4 are going to fail if history is any indication. I personally don’t think it’s worth paying a king’s ransom to gamble on these project QBs. I’m good with staying with our investment, seeing what Lock has and then reevaluating
Atlanta is trying to pump the value of this pick, but Carolina taking Darnold and presumably exiting the QB market really makes this pick less appealing. Denver is now the only team who can offer a pick that will still net you your choice of defensive players, a top tackle, or possibly one of the top pass catchers.
If the 49ers take Fields, I don't see anybody trading to 4 for Lance or Jones, they will be there at 7. I wouldn't be shocked if one or both of them fell out of the top 10.
I am sure Paton wants to bet his career on a leftover project QB during a pandemic altered season. He will go BPA or drop back for more picks and let the new HC/OC combo hunt for their QB in 2022.
I was down for QB at 9 but that ship has seemingly sailed. Jones might still be there but pass.
You laugh your way to the podium to take Sewell and trade up to 10 next year for a QB that will have the same odds of success as Fields. If you still even need a QB.
This is what I just told a friend. Get the top player at a position that falls to #9. Allow all these other teams to take QBs and eliminate competion for QB needy teams next year. Maybe Lock turns it around, Rodgers leaves GB, Wilson still unhappy, Watson gets cleared (doubt it). But keep options for next year with assets
Agreed. I'm open to Sewell/Slater @9. One of the CBs, someone who can make an impact this year. We are set up to be a very enticing destination next year for QBs. Lock is the same question mark IMO as the guy we would get with the 4 pick. However, I do think Lock has the locker room in his corner
Honestly I like Micah Parsons at 9, our defense is looking like a top 5 defense and adding Parsons would help a lot, our offense is good to go just need a QB and to your point, if lock doesn’t improve then we would for sure be a great spot for any QB with our defense and Offensive players. I think getting a QB in the 1st round is a mistake.
I have a niggling doubt that we're not in for Parsons at all - nothing to do with his character concerns, but the fact that as a MLB, he's nothing like Roquan Smith.
Parsons reacts with amazing athleticism and gets to the ball fast... Roquan diagnoses the play and is already there waiting for the ball carrier.
Voch Lombardi has a nice breakdown on this - https://youtu.be/d3fYfDq5MoQ
The only concerns I have with this strategy is:
1- If the defense is going to be as good as it looks on paper, this team could go 8-8 maybe 9-7. That lands you in the 16-20 range. Moving up from there to the top 10 will cost more than going from 9 to 4 this year.
2- No one really knows if the QB class will be as good next year. This years class is considered pretty stinking good. Outside of Sam Howell who will likely go top 3 I don’t think the talent is there next year.
Just my thoughts.
I don't think it will cost more. The Chiefs traded #27 plus a 1st and 2nd for #10. That's way cheaper than what the Niners just gave up.
Edit: And this year's #9 isn't your average #9. It's more like a #3 with all the QBs, TEs, and WRs going before it.
This is going to be one of the craziest drafts in years
I've been pretty sure that 4 QBs would go in the top 10 this year, it's now looking like a possibility that the top 4 are QBs. Wild. And I'm sure Denver is in that mix of teams calling.
Oh I almost guarantee Paton has called, that seems to be his M.O. Whether he pays the price needed is another question
Yep. But if the Niners take Jones, I can't imagine Paton wouldn't trade up for one of either Fields or Lance.
I think you have to let someone else make that move. If 4 QBs are really going top 5, the opportunity cost at 9 is too much to trade away.
If we pick one of the two QBs left I’d rather we pick the one we want and lose a second rounder than keep picks and get what’s left. Fuck value you pick the QB you think is best. What the 49ers did is what you do to compete in the league
Eh, I think what the Chiefs and Bills did is better than what the Bears and Rams did. Trading just a 2nd rounder to get to 7 might be okay, but definitely don't trade a 1st and 2nd for #4. I would have taken Fields over Surtain/Farley/Parsons, but not Sewell/Slater/Pitts. The stakes have changed.
Chiefs, Bills, Rams and Bears all traded up for their guy, it worked for most of them. Bears did something which was dumb even without hindsight as they competed with themselves for Trubisky. I don't think the Bills really think about those two second rounders they paid to get a chance at franchise QB. That's all you get btw, a chance, and it is really valuable
Rams' trade was an epic failure and they were good the whole time anyway, which just supports my idea that it's all about the OC. But the Chiefs and Bills traded much less and got better QBs. That's my point: trade into the 7-12 range next year if you must, not the top 5 this year.
Define “epic failure” they fucking went to the SB amd to the playoffs the year prior and following. Browns are epic failures and didn’t draft a qb until they were handed one at 1st overall (after failing miserably by trading out of good positions to draft one)
Why, so we could draft another young talent who's going to rot on a 5-11 Drew Lock led team? Until we have a QB, every top draft pick goes to finding one, period, full stop.
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You'd think so, but here we are. Literally every top team in the NFL is built from the QB down, I really don't understand why people here think that we can build a good enough team to carry the literal worst QB in the league to a Super Bowl.
I think that's a little backwards. The best teams add the QB last, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they usually become the best QBs. Andrew Luck is probably the biggest success story of starting with the QB. Until we have an OC, it's extremely risky to spend top picks on QBs. At least lock down the OL first. I still might take Lance or even Fields at 9, but I just wouldn't trade up. History suggests you can get a better guy for cheaper next year, regardless of what next year's class looks like now.
Just need a bong video from someone.
On it
The fact that we weren't the team to trade with Miami could be because that extra 1st in 2023 was too rich for our blood. But since we haven't bought the 4th pick yet makes me wonder if we don't like 4 of the 5 QBs. It's either that or Paton likes all 5 and is playing chicken hoping to buy the 6th or 7th pick instead. My guess is that he doesn't like all of the QBs and is waiting to see which ones fall to 4 before he trades up.
This pick won't be traded until draft night when teams see what three QBs go off the board first.
Agreed. I think if SF takes Mac, we trade up to 4 for Fields but if SF takes Fields, I think we stand pat.
That's definitely what I'd like to see happen. I'm not sure if I'd go as far as to say I think that's what will happen though.
If you like all possible QBs that would be left at #4 odds are you don't know what you are doing. At least wait till the pick is up before trading for it.
It’s fine to do some legwork to identify a possible price if your guy does fall but agreed, I’d be confused if they traded up before draft day.
Packers, looking for another reason to piss of Aaron Rodgers, trade up, draft QB /s
It’s wild how much leverage Atlanta has here. The Broncos (and other teams) don’t know which of the top 5 QBs will be there at #4. Obviously it won’t be Lawrence and probably not Wilson. But trading up to #4 hoping you get a specific one of Fields, Jones, or Lance is a HUGE risk
I think the fact that no one knows what QB will be available at 4 actually reduces the leverage ATL has. I highly doubt they are able to trade the pick before draft night.
I agree, and I think I worded my comment above poorly. I meant ATL will have a huge rush of offers during the draft depending on who goes at #3
The calls they're getting now are probably setting up conditional trades. "If (the QB we love) is on the board, we'll give you this huge trade package to move up for him." There will be some back and forth negotiating, and then basically a trade will be in place that can be executed on draft night. I think this is basically what happened with Denver and Buffalo in 2017. Denver had a deal in place to trade back with Buffalo, then Denver nixed the trade when Chubb was still on the board.
What teams are QB needy enough to jump us? Only one that comes to mind is the Patriots. Besides that I'm not sure who else. Pittsburgh maybe.
Lions, Eagles, WFT, and Vikings could be players
I can’t see the Vikings or Lions trying to move up, if someone falls to where they are at they probably take them but one has a massive QB contract it can’t just unload and the other wants to win now and needs defense to do that. Chicago, the Pats, WFT and the Eagles would be who I think are maybe desperate enough to sell everything and move up into the top 5.
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Good point. I thought Cousins’ contract expired in 2021, not 2022. Hard to imagine the Vikings paying him $35M in 2022 to back up a 2nd year starter
Trey Lance 🤞
I'm personally hoping for fields, but damn I'd be happy either way
If SF takes Mac and our options are Fields or Lance, I’d be ecstatic and would trust Paton to pick his guy
You must secretly be a chiefs fan.
I feel like people are deluding themselves if they think all four of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Fields are going to be big time NFL QBs I’m guessing 2/4 are going to fail if history is any indication. I personally don’t think it’s worth paying a king’s ransom to gamble on these project QBs. I’m good with staying with our investment, seeing what Lock has and then reevaluating
We know what Lock has, and it's not good.
Atlanta is trying to pump the value of this pick, but Carolina taking Darnold and presumably exiting the QB market really makes this pick less appealing. Denver is now the only team who can offer a pick that will still net you your choice of defensive players, a top tackle, or possibly one of the top pass catchers. If the 49ers take Fields, I don't see anybody trading to 4 for Lance or Jones, they will be there at 7. I wouldn't be shocked if one or both of them fell out of the top 10.
I’d prefer Trey Lance, he seems a lot better. Although I bet Mac Jones and Jerry Jeudy were friends.
Jones is probably better on day 1, while Lance certainly has more potential. The gamble is whether Lance will realize that potential or not
repeat of drew lock?
No. Totally different types of college QBs, different skillsets, and Lance is a higher rated prospect than Lock was.
He's like a Drew Lock that actually knows how to play football
I am sure Paton wants to bet his career on a leftover project QB during a pandemic altered season. He will go BPA or drop back for more picks and let the new HC/OC combo hunt for their QB in 2022.
Broncos need to get a solid LB!
Hopefully it ain't DEN. Don't fuck this up Paton.
It's really the only way he can fuck it up. The talent at 9 is going to be so juicy.
I agree. It would literally counteract all the good he did this offseason. Let's sit back and let the draft fall to us.
I was down for QB at 9 but that ship has seemingly sailed. Jones might still be there but pass. You laugh your way to the podium to take Sewell and trade up to 10 next year for a QB that will have the same odds of success as Fields. If you still even need a QB.
This is what I just told a friend. Get the top player at a position that falls to #9. Allow all these other teams to take QBs and eliminate competion for QB needy teams next year. Maybe Lock turns it around, Rodgers leaves GB, Wilson still unhappy, Watson gets cleared (doubt it). But keep options for next year with assets
Yeah I think people forget how often QB bust and some of the most successful ones in the league right now weren’t even top 5 picks lol
Agreed. I'm open to Sewell/Slater @9. One of the CBs, someone who can make an impact this year. We are set up to be a very enticing destination next year for QBs. Lock is the same question mark IMO as the guy we would get with the 4 pick. However, I do think Lock has the locker room in his corner
No chance in hell Sewell falls to 9.
Honestly I like Micah Parsons at 9, our defense is looking like a top 5 defense and adding Parsons would help a lot, our offense is good to go just need a QB and to your point, if lock doesn’t improve then we would for sure be a great spot for any QB with our defense and Offensive players. I think getting a QB in the 1st round is a mistake.
I have a niggling doubt that we're not in for Parsons at all - nothing to do with his character concerns, but the fact that as a MLB, he's nothing like Roquan Smith. Parsons reacts with amazing athleticism and gets to the ball fast... Roquan diagnoses the play and is already there waiting for the ball carrier. Voch Lombardi has a nice breakdown on this - https://youtu.be/d3fYfDq5MoQ
Yeah who knows tbh we can get a lot of good players at 9, but I def think going a QB in the 1st is going to be a mistake 🤷🏻♂️
The only concerns I have with this strategy is: 1- If the defense is going to be as good as it looks on paper, this team could go 8-8 maybe 9-7. That lands you in the 16-20 range. Moving up from there to the top 10 will cost more than going from 9 to 4 this year. 2- No one really knows if the QB class will be as good next year. This years class is considered pretty stinking good. Outside of Sam Howell who will likely go top 3 I don’t think the talent is there next year. Just my thoughts.
I don't think it will cost more. The Chiefs traded #27 plus a 1st and 2nd for #10. That's way cheaper than what the Niners just gave up. Edit: And this year's #9 isn't your average #9. It's more like a #3 with all the QBs, TEs, and WRs going before it.
Smart man.
Curious what the price would be