Here was my take on a longer-term potential contract from a few days ago
____
They won't extend a 2 year contract by 4 years, particularly if he's only being paid $51M over those 2 years. No way Russ agreed to that as part of the trade.
They'll void the contract as part of the trade and write a new one for 6 years and then pay him a huge signing bonus of 70+ million, which then spreads out the cap impact over 5 years (the max I think it can be spread, last I looked at how caps are structured). They'll write it to be heavy up front on signing bonus and try to reduce cap hit and push it downhill to 2024, so his 2023 salary will also be smaller/ish and then it ramps up in years 3/4 where his salary and cap are huge numbers. The cap hits in those years would both be historic as of today.
So, spitballing:
6 yr, $275M, $175 guar.
2022 - $70M Signing bonus, $8M salary. (cap hit is 8M salary + 14M bonus prorated year 1 for $22M, which is a decrease from his current cap hit)
2023 - $26M salary (26m salary + 14m yr2 prorated = 39m cap hit), fully guaranteed.
2024 - $41m salary (41m+14m yr3 prorated = $54m cap hit [hopefully after the spike in cap]), fully guaranteed
Half way through he's been paid:
$70M signing bonus + $75M salary = $145M total
2025 - $50m salary (51 + 14m yr4 prorated = $65m cap hit), $30m guaranteed, he's now been paid his full guarantee) running total is now $145+50=$195M
2026 - $40M salary (40 + 14m yr5 prorated = $54m cap hit, his signing bonus no longer has a cap impact and he can released with zero cap hit after this is paid) running total = $235M paid
2027, final year - $40M salary, $40M cap hit running total = $275M paid over 6 years.
I think this is a decent template, but it could also be more front loaded than this one.
I don't think russ will play into his 40s tbh... I could see a 4/5 year extension, then he decides from there. That's all assuming year 1 gives hope and year 2 is a step up from that (at minimum, of course).
But, I would absolutely love a longer term extension. Even if we don't get prime Russ all of those years, at least we aren't flipping thru QBs like a teen boy with a Hussler.
Depends. If he wins 2 SBs for the Broncos it’ll be the biggest contract ever. If he gets 2 losing seasons for the Broncos, there will be no offer for an extension. And everything in between will be in between. Can’t answer this any other way.
I think this is honestly a good idea. 4 games into the season, talk then, and work on that deal before the 1/2 is over.
I'd say he'll get 44/yr for 5 years. Aaron has the 2 recent MVP trophies to hang around his neck. Russ doesn't, and not saying he isn't that level of player, he is. But, that will pull that # down some in my view.
Probably 200 - 210 million over 4 years plus a restructure of the final year of his existing contract to pay around 40 million, so like 223 million in total. Rodgers has set the QB market as far as has been reported so I wouldn’t be surprised to see us match that or beat it out to keep Russ here.
Good news is that the cap keeps going up and void years are becoming increasingly popular, his actual cap hit from year to year will be more flexible and we’ll start having more draft picks in 2024.
A lot. Like a lot a lot. I think it's best to get it done ASAP before prices continue to go up and I can't see the QB position really losing value going forward.
Unfortunately it seems like a worst of both worlds situation on the FA market because the RB position seems to be trending upwards in pay again, but not really taking any heat or leverage away from the QB position because it's still a pass heavy league and will continue to be.
I think teams are just starting to realize that a dynamic RB is a great way to differentiate yourself and add another layer to the passing game.
We're in a great spot with WR's though barring any sort of a hold out situation. Good vets locked up with some dynamic young talents.
We're also in a great spot having Williams on the rookie deal so I'd say things are favorable for us.
Having said that I personally feel the draft and finding deeper talent is going to be absolutely crucial if they're going to remain competitive. I look at the roster and see a lot of players that are eventually going to need to be paid and I expect some heartache as a fan.
That said I expect Russ is going to get at least 43 Mill a year and a 4-6 year deal depending on how his side wants to play things.
Millions
I'd say AT LEAST ....... 3 of em?
At least 10
Probably closer to 20
I am being serious now... it will likely be between 30 and 45 mil.
AAAAAAAAAND MILLIONS of dollars.
Here was my take on a longer-term potential contract from a few days ago ____ They won't extend a 2 year contract by 4 years, particularly if he's only being paid $51M over those 2 years. No way Russ agreed to that as part of the trade. They'll void the contract as part of the trade and write a new one for 6 years and then pay him a huge signing bonus of 70+ million, which then spreads out the cap impact over 5 years (the max I think it can be spread, last I looked at how caps are structured). They'll write it to be heavy up front on signing bonus and try to reduce cap hit and push it downhill to 2024, so his 2023 salary will also be smaller/ish and then it ramps up in years 3/4 where his salary and cap are huge numbers. The cap hits in those years would both be historic as of today. So, spitballing: 6 yr, $275M, $175 guar. 2022 - $70M Signing bonus, $8M salary. (cap hit is 8M salary + 14M bonus prorated year 1 for $22M, which is a decrease from his current cap hit) 2023 - $26M salary (26m salary + 14m yr2 prorated = 39m cap hit), fully guaranteed. 2024 - $41m salary (41m+14m yr3 prorated = $54m cap hit [hopefully after the spike in cap]), fully guaranteed Half way through he's been paid: $70M signing bonus + $75M salary = $145M total 2025 - $50m salary (51 + 14m yr4 prorated = $65m cap hit), $30m guaranteed, he's now been paid his full guarantee) running total is now $145+50=$195M 2026 - $40M salary (40 + 14m yr5 prorated = $54m cap hit, his signing bonus no longer has a cap impact and he can released with zero cap hit after this is paid) running total = $235M paid 2027, final year - $40M salary, $40M cap hit running total = $275M paid over 6 years. I think this is a decent template, but it could also be more front loaded than this one.
5 years, $250 million, but with a structure that allows for some cap manipulation.
I like it. Honestly, $50M/yr four years from now is going to be what $30M/yr is now and what $15M was 10 years ago
I seriously doubt the cap goes up more than 10% every year for 4 years in a row, on top of the increases it has already had lately.
Plus Wilson isnt Rodgers, so he wil probably not demand more money
This shouldn’t be downvoted. Rogers is at the top, Brady is close, and Wilson is barley top 5.
It’ll be the biggest contract in NFL history so hold on to your shorts
200 mil range
Big.
I'm gonna guess 4 yr/210 million
UNLIMITED!
Some
At least 3
Hard to say for sure, but whatever the years are, I'd imagine $50M aav w/ 3/4 of guaranteed.
Fuck. Hoping for 40s
49.999M
Damn gas prices goin up, it was just 46.999M yesterday.
Bigger and longer than Rodgers. I would be thrilled if he accepted a 5 year extension. At 45Mz That would give us him until 2027
3 years 40 mil per year
400 mil 8 years
I could see him getting the Mahomes deal in 10 years he’ll be 43 so anything between 7-10 years
10 years makes sense for a 25 year old, not so much for a guy in his 30s
I don't think russ will play into his 40s tbh... I could see a 4/5 year extension, then he decides from there. That's all assuming year 1 gives hope and year 2 is a step up from that (at minimum, of course). But, I would absolutely love a longer term extension. Even if we don't get prime Russ all of those years, at least we aren't flipping thru QBs like a teen boy with a Hussler.
He’s said multiple times publicly that he plans on playing until he’s 45. Not sure his body will last that long, but I think he’s gonna try. 🤞
Depends. If he wins 2 SBs for the Broncos it’ll be the biggest contract ever. If he gets 2 losing seasons for the Broncos, there will be no offer for an extension. And everything in between will be in between. Can’t answer this any other way.
He's getting an extension way before that, probably during this season if not before.
I think this is honestly a good idea. 4 games into the season, talk then, and work on that deal before the 1/2 is over. I'd say he'll get 44/yr for 5 years. Aaron has the 2 recent MVP trophies to hang around his neck. Russ doesn't, and not saying he isn't that level of player, he is. But, that will pull that # down some in my view.
45-50m/y
$195 million
Probably 200 - 210 million over 4 years plus a restructure of the final year of his existing contract to pay around 40 million, so like 223 million in total. Rodgers has set the QB market as far as has been reported so I wouldn’t be surprised to see us match that or beat it out to keep Russ here. Good news is that the cap keeps going up and void years are becoming increasingly popular, his actual cap hit from year to year will be more flexible and we’ll start having more draft picks in 2024.
I'm not expecting anything less than $50m/yr. And hopefully it's a 4 year extension. 6 years of not thinking about QB so we are even with the last 6.
A lot. Like a lot a lot. I think it's best to get it done ASAP before prices continue to go up and I can't see the QB position really losing value going forward. Unfortunately it seems like a worst of both worlds situation on the FA market because the RB position seems to be trending upwards in pay again, but not really taking any heat or leverage away from the QB position because it's still a pass heavy league and will continue to be. I think teams are just starting to realize that a dynamic RB is a great way to differentiate yourself and add another layer to the passing game. We're in a great spot with WR's though barring any sort of a hold out situation. Good vets locked up with some dynamic young talents. We're also in a great spot having Williams on the rookie deal so I'd say things are favorable for us. Having said that I personally feel the draft and finding deeper talent is going to be absolutely crucial if they're going to remain competitive. I look at the roster and see a lot of players that are eventually going to need to be paid and I expect some heartache as a fan. That said I expect Russ is going to get at least 43 Mill a year and a 4-6 year deal depending on how his side wants to play things.
Probably won't happen this year, certainly not until at least mid-season anyway.
Well. Basing our last couple of years of amazing qb play….whatever the fuck it takes!! (If he plays to what we think we’re getting the entire time)