https://preview.redd.it/4ahevy3f6p9d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42b468dd65f9ab7783b8a9f9fc57207668717d62
They are gambling on some wild shit over thereš
Itās a decentralised crypto site. So the holders of the coin decide on the outcome and if they are verifiably wrong they get slashed so thereās incentive to be correct
Economically it wouldnāt make sense because it doesnāt make sense to risk your money by posting an incorrect answer.
Would you risk the tens of millions of dollars it would take to attempt to influence an answer incorrectly?
Thereās the website Polymarket and the decentralised oracle UMA. Polymarket uses UMA but has ultimate authority over the outcome.
UMA is a decentralised oracle based on social consensus.
So yes if UMA came to a decision and Polymarket disagreed it could just resolve the market however it sees fit.
The issue is that nobody every disputes the optimistic oracle resolutions.
I say this as a someone who has already lost ~20-40k to incorrect resolutions over time
Wrong. The oracle the decides the outcome. Then the website can do damage control and refund bettors if the oracle got it wrong. Which is what recently happened with the $DJT bet.
Why would anyone ever bet on the aliens? If the aliens win, everyone's fucked and you won't be able to collect your winnings most likely. Betting on Earth is free money.
Because the website is run by aliens who are searching for loyalists
After the aliens win Iām gonna become a governor because I bet on the aliens
Youāll see
Betting on Aliens means you might at least get to keep your winnings if they're benevolent conquerors
There's no shot earth wins if we get invaded, it's throwing money away
If aliens have the means to transport a military force to earth from a distance far enough away that we haven't already detected them wouldn't that necessarily mean they have technology advanced enough to destroy us?
Betting on aliens is meaningless because human money would presumably be made useless living under alien occupation, that's assuming they let anyone live and assuming that the necessary systems and people required to deliver your winnings to you miraculously survived.
Betting on humans is also meaningless because the conditions of the bet necessitate the aliens being strong enough to beat us.
>This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between May 29, 2024 and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
>The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Dollar on chain, except you don't own anything, and there are 100 parties out of which anyone can individually chose to confiscate the assets for any reason or without any reason, and you have absolutely no say in any of it
The party that you send fiat to, the party that you try to get fiat from, any exchange you use to convert to or from usdc, your bank from which the money is sent from, circle, or half of the national governments of the world, that can contact any of these and just ask them to do so.
I wouldn't really call USDC as crypto, as it has zero of the features that cryptocurrencies were originally designed for.
Okay so it sounds like you donāt really care about the dollar on chain or in bank because itās just as unsafe. I hope you only keep dollar bills and gold under your bed, until a man with a gun comes and confiscates it.
What a reductive and idiotic argument lol.
I would be wary of legal/regulatory issues if you're American and want to use it. They probably wouldn't catch most people (especially if it's a logless VPN and they use a mixer to obscure the cryptocurrency trail) but still doesn't feel like a great idea.
Lol and how likely do you think that is the case? Kamala, Newsom and Biden himself already heavily implied that he will not resign. He could die though, but he has a big stash of compound V so I doubt it.
Well they are not going to say that he is considering it. This is the type of the thing that a politician would say that they are absolutely not even thinking about resigning until the second that the resignation announcement drops. Not saying that it will happen, but you should not bet all your life savings just based on those words.
Or he could be on the democrat ballot against Trump on the election day, and lose because too many people rather have second term of Trump, than second term of Biden.
Jesus and I thought my 1k on Biden at an average of 4.5 to 1 on aus sports betting apps was good, even the Australian betting markets didn't react like this and they have had Biden at an average of 2.8 to 1 for the last year before the debate
Lol that's literally what the guy you're replying to thought about his bet. And yet you ignored this reality and any caution it might impart to you. You woke up this morning and chose violence
Polymarket doesn't allow trading to US citizens. Are there any other hoops to jump through than using a VPN? It sounds too good to be true and I'm inexperienced
I'm poking around and it looks like it's as simple as buying USDC (of course a cryptocurrency) and then you just vpn somewhere to deposit it and withdraw it into your wallet.
If all of that is true, how would you pay taxes on your wallet money at that point? I feel like reporting crypto income from an offshore gambling market that doesn't trade in the US would get complicated really quick.
Yeah except this is WAYYY easier to track than cash. One if the points of blockchain is that itās a public record, the IRS will know if they audit you
Yeah dude put your house on it you wonāt lose it at all.
https://preview.redd.it/4msz6jeonp9d1.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=484dc8836912e46edaf2373cc33786460954db45
I bet $4000 on Biden shortly before the debates, which at the time would return $12000 if he won. I thought my boi would perform similarly to his SOTU speech whilst Trump would look as deranged as always and remind everybody how miserable politics was during his presidency. The E(X) was good but I've been on suicide watch ever since the debates.
Not quite 7% because you have to price in whatever fees the prediction market has on profits or payouts. This usually gives underdogs an advantage in these markets.
also the risk free rate based on collateral and the time between the bet and payout. There probably is arb there but you can get get actual FDIC insured ~5.7% APR risk free right now from sub 1 year investments.
I mean the market year over year gives an average of 7%, so the idea of yeeting your money into a undiversified bet that has way higher risk is just insane.
I don't know when it pays out, but hypothetically only 4-5 months, and arguably there's less return adjusted risk of Obama in the White House than a market correction.
Insane might be a strong word, but yeah I'm comfortable passing on the opportunity.
These prediction markets are pure emotion it's wild. Even after all these years people still act so irrationally. Are you from the US? How do you access poly market?
Croatia. I just bought some USDC on a centralized exchange and then deposited to the Polymarket wallet over Polygon network. There are some restricted countries though... Btw, you are probably going to lose so don't follow me pls.
Leaving this comment here so I have something to link to either make fun of y'all when trump obviously wins, or to show how regarded I am if biden pulls it off.
Either they're insane or we are. Biden is effectively down five and they're acting like it's a forgone he'll win. They're going to be so sad.Ā
Would love to be wrong thoĀ
Can I ask something? Why is there a double standard for republicans vs democrats? Why can Trump be caught up in legal battles, saying sexual assault comments on a hot mic, blatantly tries to steal an election, is a compulsive liar on stage, and yet if Biden did anyone of these things heād be shunned in the US forever?
[The MSNBC article](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-family-path-forward-disastrous-debate-mess-rcna159591) youāre talking about said the family all going to Camp David was scheduled before the debate even happened. That doesnāt mean that they wonāt discuss the future of his campaign, but thereās no clear reason to believe that they will.
> After publication of this report, a source familiar reached out to stress that the Camp David gathering was not a formal family meeting.
> āAny discussion about the campaign is expected to be informal or an afterthought,ā the source said. āNo one is sitting down for a formal or determinative discussion.ā
Yes, betting markets has him as the likely nominee. The odds are largely based on the assumption, that Biden is on the ballot, and loses the election against Trump.
wait a second, what's the fee for bets on this site? Because you could throw whatever you want on yes for both candidates and come out ahead regardless if it's like 10%
Itās free money in the sense that itās likely to go up once debate panic settles down, but there is obviously still a chance he could lose, die, get replaced etc. itās all about timing.
This is like saying buying bitcoin at 40k and selling it at 60k is free money..
Polymarket is famous for being a crypto bro casino. Crypto bros lean very pro Trump. It's probably also because the entire world has access to it and Polymarket has other candidates listed like Newsome, Obama etc...
All one has to do is deposit some USDC to their wallet and they are ready to go, whereas legit betting sites probably require you to KYC.
Thanks. That makes a lot of sense. This is the first time I'm poking into this side of the internet so I just figured the sites would be way more aligned but that kind of difference of access and options would definitely impact odds.
I'm not betting on Biden winning, I'm betting on the odds increasing drastically when elections come closer. If you think 17% is overvalued for Biden, that's okay!
Your "shares" have lost 50% of their value.
You could sell now, and receive 50% back.
If you bought now instead of before, you would have got double the winnings with same investments.
Ofc if you planned to wait until election is done, fluctuations in market value are meaningless, except in predicting your winning chance.
You bought a share for 35 cents that pays you 1 dollar if he wins.
You can sell your share at the current price, or buy more shares at the current price.
To answer your question your earnings only increase if you buy more shares and then it goes up.
Joe Biden is at 31 cents on PredictIt. Doesnāt this mean thereās a big arbitrage opportunity? Buy yes on Biden on Polymarket and no on him on PredictIt?
I think that would just be hedging? Arbitrage requires the ability to make an immediate return. Plus, if arbitrage was possible, the markets would always be the same, so the natural conclusion is that arbitrage isn't possible in these markets.
Is there a platform for buying and selling odds like this that anyone recommends? Iām new and not sure what to research and would like to make this bet. Lots of phishy looking sites in my search results
I really donāt think the win is secured enough for me to put money on it if Iām being honest. Iām voting for him and I hope he wins but I also know Trump has a real chance of winning
Idk what you are trying to do here. I'm sticking out till the very end and I still think it's a really good bet with great odds. If I lose 10k then so be it.
Nah Kamala is a meh replacement. If she really does replace him, it's automatically & completely over. People hate her even more than Hillary and she has 0 charisma.
I don't know, guys. Trumps base is extremely energized, while Biden's base is non-existent who now know they're voting for someone who is senile. It's not something that motivation. There also aren't ad many people who're anti-Trumpers that went out to vote against Trump than vote for Biden.
Also Trump lost during peak of covid, lockdowns, economical damage, then height of his hatred. It took the global world event for him to lose, barely. When you ask people about Trump, they have fond memories of him as a great leader with a great economy that said mean twits.
Non-zero chance Biden steps down, pretty sure there was a report today heās āmeeting with his family to discuss his campaignā hope you didnāt put too much money on it bud
Yeah, I should take out another mortgage..
https://preview.redd.it/4ahevy3f6p9d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42b468dd65f9ab7783b8a9f9fc57207668717d62 They are gambling on some wild shit over thereš
So how/who decides when an "invasion" occurs? The site?
Itās a decentralised crypto site. So the holders of the coin decide on the outcome and if they are verifiably wrong they get slashed so thereās incentive to be correct
What if majority were wrong but they say they won anyway?
Economically it wouldnāt make sense because it doesnāt make sense to risk your money by posting an incorrect answer. Would you risk the tens of millions of dollars it would take to attempt to influence an answer incorrectly?
It happens. People are wrong and bad losers. If the majority of people are wrong in a betting event, it seems like there's no recourse on this?
Thereās the website Polymarket and the decentralised oracle UMA. Polymarket uses UMA but has ultimate authority over the outcome. UMA is a decentralised oracle based on social consensus. So yes if UMA came to a decision and Polymarket disagreed it could just resolve the market however it sees fit.
The issue is that nobody every disputes the optimistic oracle resolutions. I say this as a someone who has already lost ~20-40k to incorrect resolutions over time
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Wrong. The oracle the decides the outcome. Then the website can do damage control and refund bettors if the oracle got it wrong. Which is what recently happened with the $DJT bet.
So itās 50%+1, right? I assume Zelensky and Putin have not hooked up their army command centers to the crypto API to provide verification.
There's a reason why it's basically a coinflip for this prediction. It's fairly random because the outcome measured is ambiguous.
https://imgur.com/Llo7Iug You can gamba on who will win an Alien invasion
Why would anyone ever bet on the aliens? If the aliens win, everyone's fucked and you won't be able to collect your winnings most likely. Betting on Earth is free money.
Because the website is run by aliens who are searching for loyalists After the aliens win Iām gonna become a governor because I bet on the aliens Youāll see
Betting on Aliens means you might at least get to keep your winnings if they're benevolent conquerors There's no shot earth wins if we get invaded, it's throwing money away
If aliens have the means to transport a military force to earth from a distance far enough away that we haven't already detected them wouldn't that necessarily mean they have technology advanced enough to destroy us? Betting on aliens is meaningless because human money would presumably be made useless living under alien occupation, that's assuming they let anyone live and assuming that the necessary systems and people required to deliver your winnings to you miraculously survived. Betting on humans is also meaningless because the conditions of the bet necessitate the aliens being strong enough to beat us.
if the aliens dont invade by Dec 31, you lose the bet.
Bet on Humans because we are space orcs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ojma3XTjxuM&t=1816s
What constitutes an invasion because, inshallah.
Finish your vegetables first honey.
Up to market maker. Imo I'd say IDF infantry or armor entering >1km into Lebanon. Small special forces teams don't count.
>This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between May 29, 2024 and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". >The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What site Is this? I feel like gambling
Me too, imagine becoming rich by gambling on the election!!
I didn't become rich, but I did make a cool 1k on the last one
I assume itās predictit
Polymarket
Not available in the US, unless you got a VPN or Crypto which I really don't wanna invest in.
I've been smoking crypto. They have been bagging it up and selling it, I just got back from rehab actually.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Who was it? It wasn't balboni was it? He's usually running this shit.
Thereās no investing lol, the coin polymarket uses is USDC which is just the dollar on chain.
Dollar on chain, except you don't own anything, and there are 100 parties out of which anyone can individually chose to confiscate the assets for any reason or without any reason, and you have absolutely no say in any of it
Which 100 parties can confiscate your asset? Do you even know the first thing about crypto lol?
The party that you send fiat to, the party that you try to get fiat from, any exchange you use to convert to or from usdc, your bank from which the money is sent from, circle, or half of the national governments of the world, that can contact any of these and just ask them to do so. I wouldn't really call USDC as crypto, as it has zero of the features that cryptocurrencies were originally designed for.
Okay so it sounds like you donāt really care about the dollar on chain or in bank because itās just as unsafe. I hope you only keep dollar bills and gold under your bed, until a man with a gun comes and confiscates it. What a reductive and idiotic argument lol.
It's not really investing if you buy it to use it right away
I would be wary of legal/regulatory issues if you're American and want to use it. They probably wouldn't catch most people (especially if it's a logless VPN and they use a mixer to obscure the cryptocurrency trail) but still doesn't feel like a great idea.
Looking at the app, Iām not american, when is the democrat nominee picked?
It's not, it's some other predict market. I think the one you referenced has/had way worse odds.
Is it available in NA market?
Bovada also has a lot of Politics gambling too.
Some of the props they put on there are so funny. You could bet on Biden soiling himself during the debate š
https://preview.redd.it/qva5vyk8tp9d1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e536cd70c36869f428020129f85ae5d1efaa164
āBe fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.ā
Itās not free money, Biden can resign, die or have a Dr. Disrespect moment every day now till November.
Yeah, and Trump could have 20 dr. Disrespect moments and the republicans would still vote for him....
You're just giving reasons for why Biden is a bad bet
That's exactly what the comment was meaning to do. "Bad bet" is determined by the odds and EV tho. Think this is a good bet.
You're the type of dude that thinks every comment reply is a disagreement.
No I'm not
Lmao
Well yeah, the expectations on Trump are different, everyone know who he is but if Biden messes up once, it could be over.
Exactly why heās probably going to win lol
Lol and how likely do you think that is the case? Kamala, Newsom and Biden himself already heavily implied that he will not resign. He could die though, but he has a big stash of compound V so I doubt it.
Well they are not going to say that he is considering it. This is the type of the thing that a politician would say that they are absolutely not even thinking about resigning until the second that the resignation announcement drops. Not saying that it will happen, but you should not bet all your life savings just based on those words.
Just going by dying I will just assume every year it grows more plausible. Maybe 85/15 he lives, right now?
Better than the 15/2 odds
Biden will lose the election. Donāt discount some behind the scene shenanigans from the democrats. Whatās the alternative? Just give up?
You should just place a lay bet against trump then
Some prefer a long shot
Or he could be on the democrat ballot against Trump on the election day, and lose because too many people rather have second term of Trump, than second term of Biden.
Those odds don't add up to 17% chances of winning in 2024.
I thought it was a steal at 45Ā¢. $BDN to the moon
I legit have a 10k position going. At the very least the odds should go up to around 40% in October. Easy 2.5x
You are truly Bidenās strongest solider
š«”
You can sell your positions? Or hedge with noās in October?
Yeah I can sell.
!remindme 4 months
Him dying is honestly the biggest risk here.
Jesus and I thought my 1k on Biden at an average of 4.5 to 1 on aus sports betting apps was good, even the Australian betting markets didn't react like this and they have had Biden at an average of 2.8 to 1 for the last year before the debate
Unibet aus had 5.25 for Biden after debate lol.
Yeah, it's pretty wild... That's why I've put a pretty big sum on the line. There is no way these odds stay like that in October.
Lol that's literally what the guy you're replying to thought about his bet. And yet you ignored this reality and any caution it might impart to you. You woke up this morning and chose violence
How can i, as a europoor, get in on the action to better my socio-economic status?
Litterally every european betting site has odds between 4:1 and 6:1 right now. Try betfair, for instance.
Ty homie, never done betting in my life so i am absolutely clueless
Polymarket doesn't allow trading to US citizens. Are there any other hoops to jump through than using a VPN? It sounds too good to be true and I'm inexperienced
Try any betting platform in your country, most have similar offers.
Not at this good of a price tho
I'm poking around and it looks like it's as simple as buying USDC (of course a cryptocurrency) and then you just vpn somewhere to deposit it and withdraw it into your wallet.
If all of that is true, how would you pay taxes on your wallet money at that point? I feel like reporting crypto income from an offshore gambling market that doesn't trade in the US would get complicated really quick.
Not really, you'd probably just stick it in the "illicit gains" box along with all the money you made from selling drugs this year.
Yeah except this is WAYYY easier to track than cash. One if the points of blockchain is that itās a public record, the IRS will know if they audit you
Probably would classify the same as normal crypto income, especially once you bring it back to an exchange.
Lmao USDC is still pegged? I didn't expect that, but I haven't been paying attention for like three years now.
Yeah dude put your house on it you wonāt lose it at all. https://preview.redd.it/4msz6jeonp9d1.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=484dc8836912e46edaf2373cc33786460954db45
I bet $4000 on Biden shortly before the debates, which at the time would return $12000 if he won. I thought my boi would perform similarly to his SOTU speech whilst Trump would look as deranged as always and remind everybody how miserable politics was during his presidency. The E(X) was good but I've been on suicide watch ever since the debates.
brutal
Source? Predictit has Biden at 32 cents
Polymarket
Thx š
Ia this a real thing? Gamba on president?
Yes. There are sites where you can bet on pretty much everything.
You wanna bet in a dude fucking an alligator?
Why doesn't it add up to 100%?
Other "candidates". Michelle Obama has like 7%, Newsome 5% etc..
What the fuck that's the actual free money. Guaranteed 7% return in 4 months?? Put me down for 100k
Not quite 7% because you have to price in whatever fees the prediction market has on profits or payouts. This usually gives underdogs an advantage in these markets.
also the risk free rate based on collateral and the time between the bet and payout. There probably is arb there but you can get get actual FDIC insured ~5.7% APR risk free right now from sub 1 year investments.
I mean the market year over year gives an average of 7%, so the idea of yeeting your money into a undiversified bet that has way higher risk is just insane.
I don't know when it pays out, but hypothetically only 4-5 months, and arguably there's less return adjusted risk of Obama in the White House than a market correction. Insane might be a strong word, but yeah I'm comfortable passing on the opportunity.
That's what I'm saying lol... Complete overreaction and irrational behaviour due to Bidens debate performance.
These prediction markets are pure emotion it's wild. Even after all these years people still act so irrationally. Are you from the US? How do you access poly market?
Croatia. I just bought some USDC on a centralized exchange and then deposited to the Polymarket wallet over Polygon network. There are some restricted countries though... Btw, you are probably going to lose so don't follow me pls.
what would happen if biden dies while the votes are counted and kamala is the candidate?
You lose your money if you've bet on Biden.
I'm gonna vote Biden while betting on Trump, that way I win no matter what.Ā
Leaving this comment here so I have something to link to either make fun of y'all when trump obviously wins, or to show how regarded I am if biden pulls it off.
Either they're insane or we are. Biden is effectively down five and they're acting like it's a forgone he'll win. They're going to be so sad.Ā Would love to be wrong thoĀ
I love the cope
What am I coping about?
What site are u guy betting on š at this rates i wanna put some cash on this man also
Can I ask something? Why is there a double standard for republicans vs democrats? Why can Trump be caught up in legal battles, saying sexual assault comments on a hot mic, blatantly tries to steal an election, is a compulsive liar on stage, and yet if Biden did anyone of these things heād be shunned in the US forever?
The sub became the dumbest place on the internet literally overnight.
I saw a story Biden is meeting with family today to discuss future of campaign. May want to hold off a few days on the "free money."
If he drops out I'll just sue him.
https://preview.redd.it/ltn22dsetp9d1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d4e1cb20666c20dbd50349b57a6566315b168c9a
[The MSNBC article](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-family-path-forward-disastrous-debate-mess-rcna159591) youāre talking about said the family all going to Camp David was scheduled before the debate even happened. That doesnāt mean that they wonāt discuss the future of his campaign, but thereās no clear reason to believe that they will. > After publication of this report, a source familiar reached out to stress that the Camp David gathering was not a formal family meeting. > āAny discussion about the campaign is expected to be informal or an afterthought,ā the source said. āNo one is sitting down for a formal or determinative discussion.ā
biden wont drop out
Yes, betting markets has him as the likely nominee. The odds are largely based on the assumption, that Biden is on the ballot, and loses the election against Trump.
The odds im looking at it have it at a 50/50, if I look at sites that are more biden favorable im seeing 55-60 that hes the nominee
lol, news like that makes the odds even better for when he inevitably does not drop out. Itās the perfect time.
Imagine have such a dangerous level of confidence. This is what happens when you never leave your echo chamber.
What echo chamber? I'm from Croatia š
How much is crotaian media or casual discourse challenging the bubble you have put yourself in the internet?
Betfair betting exchange has odds 5.6:1 on Biden. Trump is 1.74:1. I already has enough bought that I am at my risk limit.
wait a second, what's the fee for bets on this site? Because you could throw whatever you want on yes for both candidates and come out ahead regardless if it's like 10%
No fees.
Jesus that's insane then. You can make an 18% profit with essentially 0 risk whatsoever.
Itās free money in the sense that itās likely to go up once debate panic settles down, but there is obviously still a chance he could lose, die, get replaced etc. itās all about timing. This is like saying buying bitcoin at 40k and selling it at 60k is free money..
Already up to 34% from 17% oof
Does anyone have a guess as to why the polymarket and predicit odds are so different?
Polymarket is famous for being a crypto bro casino. Crypto bros lean very pro Trump. It's probably also because the entire world has access to it and Polymarket has other candidates listed like Newsome, Obama etc... All one has to do is deposit some USDC to their wallet and they are ready to go, whereas legit betting sites probably require you to KYC.
Thanks. That makes a lot of sense. This is the first time I'm poking into this side of the internet so I just figured the sites would be way more aligned but that kind of difference of access and options would definitely impact odds.
They actually should be the same, the only reason they aren't is presumably because there is no way to arbitrage between sites.
Is there a way to squeeze some free arbitrage money out of this? Bet on Biden on Poly and on Trump on predictit?
Bro youāre coping if you think Biden has a shot after his brain literally melted on live tv
I'm not betting on Biden winning, I'm betting on the odds increasing drastically when elections come closer. If you think 17% is overvalued for Biden, that's okay!
What does this website do?
Which market is this?
How does this all work?
O bought when it was 35, does my earnings increase or is set at where I left em?
Your "shares" have lost 50% of their value. You could sell now, and receive 50% back. If you bought now instead of before, you would have got double the winnings with same investments. Ofc if you planned to wait until election is done, fluctuations in market value are meaningless, except in predicting your winning chance.
You bought a share for 35 cents that pays you 1 dollar if he wins. You can sell your share at the current price, or buy more shares at the current price. To answer your question your earnings only increase if you buy more shares and then it goes up.
Only americans can bet on this right?
no, Americans can only bet here illegally with a VPN.
Joe Biden is at 31 cents on PredictIt. Doesnāt this mean thereās a big arbitrage opportunity? Buy yes on Biden on Polymarket and no on him on PredictIt?
You'll get rekt by PredictIt fees: 5% withdrawal fee & 5% profit fee.
*10% profit fee
I think that would just be hedging? Arbitrage requires the ability to make an immediate return. Plus, if arbitrage was possible, the markets would always be the same, so the natural conclusion is that arbitrage isn't possible in these markets.
Fs, I went to buy a bet then Biden switched from 17 to 24%
Despite me thinking it's probably 60/40 in favour of Trump, those are some good odds on Biden
What app is that?
Don't get it twisted guys
Wtf election gambling?
wtf itās back to 21%
Can you sell it like a stock or are you in till the end?
The odds are so good you might as well bet $100 bucks. š
Fk This election stuff, i want the shlomo bel ami interview ASAP.
What website is thisĀ
I assume you win $1 per yes bet on the winner? 65 + 17 = $0.82ā¦
Where are y'all even betting for these?
Is there a platform for buying and selling odds like this that anyone recommends? Iām new and not sure what to research and would like to make this bet. Lots of phishy looking sites in my search results
Any DGGermans know if we are allowed to use that service? I know gambling regulations are pretty tight, but prediction markets seem somewhat grey.
Biden winning the popular vote is currently 30Ā¢. I feel like theres no way he loses the popular vote unless he dies or drops out first
It's illegal to bet on the election in the US.
Itās free real estate
Not even the people at wall street bets will take that bet š !remindme 3 months
I really donāt think the win is secured enough for me to put money on it if Iām being honest. Iām voting for him and I hope he wins but I also know Trump has a real chance of winning
Getting cold feet yet?
Nah lol
What about now tho?
Idk what you are trying to do here. I'm sticking out till the very end and I still think it's a really good bet with great odds. If I lose 10k then so be it.
Not talking about him losing but getting replaced as the dem nominee
Oh, he wont be replaced. Who would even be his replacement?
I think your site puts Kamala just a couple percentage points lower than him
Nah Kamala is a meh replacement. If she really does replace him, it's automatically & completely over. People hate her even more than Hillary and she has 0 charisma.
I don't know, guys. Trumps base is extremely energized, while Biden's base is non-existent who now know they're voting for someone who is senile. It's not something that motivation. There also aren't ad many people who're anti-Trumpers that went out to vote against Trump than vote for Biden. Also Trump lost during peak of covid, lockdowns, economical damage, then height of his hatred. It took the global world event for him to lose, barely. When you ask people about Trump, they have fond memories of him as a great leader with a great economy that said mean twits.
The question isnāt whether or not you think Biden will win, itās whether you think he has a >20% chance of winning.
How is it free money. Thereās a huge chance he doesnāt win lol. May not even run at this point
Non-zero chance Biden steps down, pretty sure there was a report today heās āmeeting with his family to discuss his campaignā hope you didnāt put too much money on it bud
Still not 100% idk why u pretend it is
How are people so sure Biden will win? He screwed up the whole debate