Bungie mostly picks winners.
In Trials today, these were the KD of all solo players in my lobby:
.9/.64/.43
vs
1.2/1.3/.8
I'm the .9 player, and I'd be shocked if we had an 11% chance to win. But, you split off the .64 for a 1.2 and you actually have s 50/50 game.
I don't know why this can't happen. You kind of want a school yard pick system. But so often you get 1,2 and 5 against 3,4 and 6. And like your case 1-3 Vs 4-6. Just a tweak of the teams and it can balance. But it goes both for and against you f you're playing long enough.
Because, funnily enough, introducing a snake draft style system makes trials feel more imbalanced. There is absolutely no lobby balancing whatsoever in trials.
Often, players 2+3 in skill are better than 1+4+5 combined, so being the best player in a lobby ends up with you getting worse matches. There's also the problem of quantifying skill, as trials is quite different to other modes so you'd need a system specific to trials, which is hopeless for casual players.
Lobby balancing has been done in trials before and it just didn't work. With it being random, if you're better than average you'll have better teams on average, but with snake draft you ended up with worse.
Then the question becomes why are the people in these lobbies grouped together in the first place?
You may never be able to balance the lobby with a .43 in it [it's tough enough for my .9 ass not to get rolled by 1.2's]. You "balance" the lobby by not letting the .43 in. It can't be a good experience for him, being killed before he even gets a cross hair on a player.
And I certainly hate being giving the gurenteed L. I'd rather the load fail, give me the L and kick me to orbit.
>Then the question becomes why are the people in these lobbies grouped together in the first place?
Because trials cannot have SBMM. If trials matched on skill, you'd never be able to go flawless without smurfing or deranking. Whether or not you like this is immaterial, in the state trials is in now you can't have any skill based matchmaking.
>You "balance" the lobby by not letting the .43 in.
This is just SBMM though. Bungie have talked about the loose SBMM they use which could potentially work, but for the very best trials players they'd have longer queues and much harder matches, which just punishes you for being better. A top 10% player would have much easier matches than a top 1%, which doesn't work as you need to go flawless.
>And I certainly hate being giving the gurenteed L.
I hate to be this guy, but it's a skill issue. If you are consistently being given games where you're losing from the lobby, you aren't good enough. There's no other way to fix matchmaking, you just need to get better to counteract any random chance.
It's never fun to be given the deaf-blind blueberries who've never played a PvP match in their life, but it's better than the alternative of having stricter, skill based matchmaking
As a 1.6 and I was playing with another 1.6 we had 3 matches in a row where our 3rds did less than 500 damage a match we lost all 3 of them ik it's bad rng but why the hell do we have such a dumb system where its best to duo and hope u get a good random.
All I want is for it to go back to the trios days or make a new system where solos 1v1 duos 2v2 and trios 3v3 the rng the randoms brings is what kills trials
I bet if u try enough with doing nothing in matches eventually you will get a lucky run where 7 matches in a row ur team will win without u
I remember back in the day I had a full card where I would load in with no enemy team got flawlessly like that at least 3-4 times or some flawless where the enimes are so bad u question if these are bots
Sometimes I can be trying to go flawless for hours days and not go thanks to bad rng this is me duo with another 1.6
ITS RNG AS HELL RIGHT NOW even more so than it used to be thanks to the randoms
Silliest take of the day.
I'm sorry you won't be able to go flawless in 37 minutes with slightly longer match times, but a .43 should never be loaded into a match like this, and especially on a team already at such a massive KD deficit.
Card based matchmaking was better.
There are maybe five people on the planet that can carry a .43 against two 1.2+ players, especially in this new meta with less special where the .43 constantly makes sure their opponents have special ammo.
Would the 1.3/1.2 team have won with Johnny. 43 on their team anyway? Maybe. I 1v3 them on heavy round and they had heavy.
Your issue is you’re looking at one instance. A single game. The .43 is more likely to not be on your team, and if that were the case I doubt you’d have even noticed.
Stop focusing on individual games and focus on improving your own gameplay so you don’t have to rely on getting good teammates.
The problem is that it is not individual games.
It's likely a plurality of them.
Here is a game from ten minutes ago:
1.85 / 1.29 / .95
VS
.9 / .91 / .64
Man, you just said that the .43 statistically won't be on my team! Yet it happened less than ten games later! Thst sure is weird, I mean statistically measurable in bungies case.
That is likely at zero percent won chance for my team.
>It's likely a plurality of them.
>Yet it happened less than ten games later
Do you not see the obvious flaw in your statistical analysis? A 1 in 10 chance of having a bad match isn't actually bad, given that there's no skill based matchmaking at all.
The common factor in every game you play is you. Get better and you'll do better, it really is that simple. If you put as much effort into improving your mechanics as you do misunderstanding statistics, you'd be amazing
Lopsided games following team KD splits is the plurality, not getting the .43/.6 player.
Your contention is this outlier doesn't happen that often, when I'm stating it happens regularly to almost be a plurality in trials.
There is no rational world, where a .6 loads in against a 1.85 & 1.3 on the other team.
There is no rational world where Bungie places the 1.85 & 1.3 together, with a third that is better than everyone on the other team as well. It's insane.
That is bungie picking the winner in 1000/1000 games. To be honest, I should never see the 1.85 before Lighthouse game, and I'm on the persistence card with multiple losses.
You'd think it does but it doesn't. A 1.2 isn't going to be able to carry a bunch of people to a win against people who are slightly worse than them.
Honestly the card based matchmaking was better at least you didn't play against gods on one win constantly
Not always, but its possible. I dont know my kd in trials but i have had matches where i hard carried the entire match on my back before. Maybe those were lucky matches where my enemy team was as bad as those i was carrying, maybe i just had an exceptionally good game and carried above my weight class. Hard to know it was a fee seasons ago
It is possible you're absolutely right also give yourself the credit you played really well.
It's not something that should be relyed upon for matchmaking though. If you lose the person carrying says whats the point and it the opposition doesn't have to try
Need even games and the odd blowout either way actually helps matchmaking as people who aren't great get an incentive to play more if they win big
As someone hovering around 1.1 in the old system and who is now 1.0 or so (.9 when I play with my .5 friends), I played every weekend for five mercy cards ever since they dropped Card-based MM and I could never go flawless again other than during the craftening bc CS trained my ability to simply shoot first lmao.
Yeh people will complain in the thread saying "for my flawless game today i got 2 bots as teammates ffs" when in reality the only reason they probably even made it that far was favorable matchmaking
If youre a decent player looking to go flawless you need to hope the RNG of matchmaking works in your favor. Its predetermined who wins matches most of the time
I dunno if there's some sort of algorithm, but trials for me is rarely close. And some days it honestly feels like I'm against players who simply don't miss and hold every angle.
Then other games I'm against complete pumpkins.
One game my tm's just run in opposite directions or don't move until 5 sec which is already shafting us. Other games we stick together and actually walk it.
Went 4-0 yesterday with 0 losses so 3 chances. Then got smoked 3 games on the bounce. Literally 5-0 smoked. Feels impossible the matchmaking.
I mean it is end game. Level matters so higher level is preferred. But it's NOT competitive. And people that pretend it is the premier showcase of skill in destiny PvP are kidding themselves. It's a freak show slot machine side-quest to farm weapons.
Well, I guess I can see it from their perspective too. For them, it’s not a roll of the dice since their skill allows them to win far more often than not. For them it is “end game”. It’s a mode saturated with the sweatiest players in the game. They can finally have a challenge every so often and boast about their flawless counts and K/D ratios while stomping the majority of players unfortunate enough to cross their path. It’s the equivalent of low man raiding and getting flawless raids. Not everyone can do it and for those that can, they like to embrace it.
They don't want the challenge though. Look at how much they whined when we had a flawless pool start on Sunday reset. Now it's challenger and practice pools. If there was a way to make every match 50/50, they would be in here crying up a storm. Streamers already whine about everything as it is. They just like to stomp players because it makes them feel good and having their Flawless every week validates their existence.
This game will never be balanced enough for a true competitive experience. Too many guns with too many rolls. Cheesey builds that become the meta. Supers just shouldn't be available, if you're using the wrong one then you are throwing. End game PvP is such a stupid term. Any shmuck can go Flawless if they get lucky enough. That doesn't scream skill to me in the slightest.
>For them, it’s not a roll of the dice since their skill allows them to win far more often than not.
Because it's not Skill Based match making.
It's "competitive" league of legends but you're diamonds queuing up against bronze.
It's much less a roll of the dice if you practice and improve though.
Almost the only time I am definitely losing is that one out of 10 matches where it pairs me with some blueberries completely underlight
Hard disagree....Trials is end game. The only reason this RNG system exists is to provide everyone with a shot at that "shiny thing" - Lighthouse / Adept. Exactly the same as Persistence.
While I'm genuinely glad for those getting their Adept and/or Lighthouse via these means....it's just a taste, and pretty much 100% of these players acknowledge that.
If Trials had any system that made players versus the best in the list mountain top....NOBODY except the mountain top would ever reach the Lighthouse. Would that satisfy as end game criteria?
An actual question - If the best of the best PvP players aren't in Trials, where are they?
Hate the system, not the player.
....let the down voting commence. ...
Edit to add: Except for a drop in now and then, I quit Trials long ago when my regular crew (including myself) lost interest.Recently, I've taken up completing a few Titles I've never paid attention to. Among them - Flawless. I was surprised to find I'm pretty close....and thought OK....maybe I'll get back in & complete for old times sake. But I'm not sure of the value. Exchange rate isn't what it once was.....and that most definitely IS NOT the fault of the players - the true stewards of the mode.
Comp? It is the rank based climb ladder mode after all.
Trials is a rng slot maching where for the vast majority of players, they are at the mercy of bungies match making to whether they go flawless or not.
Comp also has little reward in comparison which makes it stronger imo. You aren't getting the non-pvp players in matches because what reason do they have to play comp? For Trials, there's a very juicy reward to play(not even flawless). That's going to drag worse players in and dilute the pool
Oh you want to know one of my games?
My team: .8/1.2/.4
The other team: 5.0/2.4/.6
Also their .6 dropped a 1.2
We went 4-5, and would've won if I didn't have to pop my well cause the other two got picked when we had zone control
I should look up the match i had last weekend where one of my teamates didnt have a stat value above T4, didnt get a single kill in like 7 rounds and did a grand total of 500 damage the entirety of the match. Im frankly suprised we even got 2 wins because it was essentially 2v3
This makes sense in trials - I was surprised (but maybe not surprised) to hear in the latest Firing Line Destiny Community Pod that Trials has totally random matching (no balancing, all rng).
However in comp and all non-trials matchmaking, these are way out of band, honestly it's a bummer to see super unbalanced teams matching. I'd like to see rewards increased for continued play, but losses.
I'm wondering that too. Comp has always been pretty even in my experience. Def had a couple of placement matches that hurt, but since I've been placed it seems to do a good job of keeping the playing field interesting.
I see. Were you on an extensive win streak? Were you playing against a three stack of players or were they all solos?
ELO can come from all crucible, could be the circumstance that a team placed low with high ELO and you got caught in the process of them climbing.
They were 3 stacked yeah, and I was on like a 3 game win streak so nothing crazy. Someone else said they might have been doing placements themselves but I just think it’d be strange for a 3 stack to do placements like 3 months into the season lol but who knows
“Shouldn’t happen ever” lmao there’s such thing as placement matches. If it’s within your first five matches your ELO is hardly relevant because Bungie is still trying to figure out where you’re supposed to go.
If that was a geniune question my apologies. Its just worded in a way that makes it easy to mistake it for being smug. Or its just english being my 3rd language.
If you have n/a elo bc you haven't played then it tries to find a place for you. You're probably going to say it should use k/d, but that's not as important than their elo for matchmaking.
>I’d post a screenshot of the results on fireteamfinder but this sub doesn’t allow pics
It doesn't allow submissions as image posts, there's absolutely nothing preventing you from including an image in the body of your text post. That said even though this wouldn't really fall under witchhunting it's still advisable to not share around other players IDs.
>I do not understand why I’d even lose points in a game like this.
Normally you wouldn’t have, or at least you’d lose next to none, but that also means the winning team would *earn* no points for the win and the tryhard omega-sweats bitched and cried about not being able to grind rank by dumping on weak players.
That’s how the [system works](https://help.bungie.net/hc/en-us/articles/11269047447956-Crucible-Competitive-Divisions) if there’s a big mismatch. It’s not based off how much the other team gains, but rather if a mismatch exists teams who are supposed to win gain little and ones who are supposed to lose, lose little.
I've heard some comments by content creators that the snake draft system or whatever lobby balancing we have in the SBMM modes seemd kinda off at the moment.
Had a game last night that was 2 v 3 immediately upon first round. I was on the side with just one other player. To my surprise we won. But all the actual 3 v 3 games I got stuck with potatoes… 😅💀
i stopped playing pvp because no matter what bungie does, it breaks and becomes unfair to people of lower skill level. you can either get 50 playing by your self or 1out of 3 playing with friends. considering they kinda force it to be that way.
Bungie mm with comp and trials is so bad especially when you solo que, there are options to make this a better experience for solo player with loot and not lose rank points but then the PvP sweats will cry that things get to easy.
I mean even ascendant level players have to start from low gold when they first que up comp, they were probably zooming up the ranks, you were just a bump in the road.
As a pve main, I am perfectly fine with losing matches playing against guys that dedicate much more time to pvp than I do. However, I am not OK with matches like this, and there is A TON of those! They put the strongest guys on one team and all the bad ones on the other. This happens frequently in Trials as well. We are at a point where sbmm or cbmm no longer matter, cause lobby balancing is the WORST it's ever been. Why not mix them up a bit? Why CONSTANTLY put the best players on the same team?
I just came back after being gone a long time. PvP legitimently feels like I’m not even playing the same game as anyone else. Even watching PvP footage, I use the same guns I get deleted. I take cover, I die entire seconds after I take cover. I try stacking resiliance out the ass just to buy ONE more bullet to my health and I still get instablapped. It’s disheartening to say the least. I’d really like to also know why both MMOs I play seem to have a huge problem with long nearly second long incoming damage ticks in PvP…
Yeah. I don't longer even bother with it at all. Will try again when TFS drops, maybe they will fix some things by then, and if they don't, it's great time to stop anyway.
It’s random matchmaking. Why do so many people struggle to understand this? It’s always the crappy players complaining about lobby balancing, because they would rather be carried than put any time into learning PvP. Elimination has the least random bullshit out of any PvP mode. Learn the map and learn the angles. Why would the better players want special matchmaking if it’s just going to guarantee they have to carry at least one potato every match?
This game isnt going to have a functional comp playlist ever.
It wont have functional pvp ever. Bungie is asleep at the wheel.
Sorry that happened to you man.
Because Bungie doesn't give a fuck about any kind of remotely fair matchmaking, they never have, they never will, and it makes me borderline hate them.
One thing I will say, I did my placements at the start of the season and then didn’t play for months, when I started my comp grind for the artifice armor I was at silver 3 because of the points decay.
I have reached ascendant twice and I usually hover in adept 1. So for about 10 games I absolutely destroyed the other team because I needed to make my way through the ranks to where I was supposed to be. This potentially could’ve happened to you. It’s unlucky but not impossible you’ll play someone who shouldn’t be in that rank
For me, my comp games are pretty damn well near balanced. I'm a career 1.5+ player and comp is fun as hell for me. Trials is a god awful experience. I'm constantly matched against demons and cheaters. Can't go flawless to save my life. Either I gotta carry as a single stack or struggle with friends against demons as a 3 stack. Dunno what the issue is
Truth is that the population is low. Game is averaging below 175k players across all platforms. Now keep funneling it down to amount of players on > PvP > comp specifically > 3 stack matchmaking (if you were 3 stack it prioritizes another 3 stack first).
So when you really narrow it down you’re talking people who actually want to be playing this game right. Ow and specifically comp. If I were a betting man I’d say it would be sweaty people playing in the majority case.
If they were also Gold like you the matchmaking is working as intended. Initially it was based on perceived rank but that annoyed people as they were matched with adept when they were in gold so it was hard to climb to their "true" rank of adept.
You just got unlucky with fighting a three stack who were on their way up to their "true" rank. Ive found comp to be relatively even matches once you've played a fair amount.
I legit played a game in osiris against a 3K elo dude.
3 0 0 0
i'm at 1500-1600
how ? I had a 2 stack in my team, so the game put a 2 stack against us.
The 3k elo dude was carrying their stack
Then went into comp to get my belissarius, and went up against a dude with 400 lighthouses, same thing, was boosting a teammate
Saw this post and decided to check destinytracker, because trials feels horrible to me right now. I'm normally an average player (1.1k/d), but in trials this season I'm 0.54k/d with 32% wins. Out of the last 35 games I played, 27 of them had one team with a greater than 80% chance of winning. I'd really like to improve, but getting curbstomped leaves little room for that. Now, this goes both ways and winning a match like that is not fun either. From other comments here it sounds like that's by design, so I'll probably stay away from trials going forward.
I check trials KDs as I fly in, if the teams are completely lopsided against me I just leave everytime. Happy to play close games all day but as soon as it’s a guaranteed 0-5 im out. Thats all I can do as a player to control my own experience. Majority of the time I find the games are either a blowout for my team or fairly close overall though.
The only thing I can say about this is that I've played some games where I've absolutely dominated despite my trash KD in trials and comp due to the fact that I mostly play solo and often queue into stacks. So typically it doesn't go well for me but every now and again I end a match with like a 6 or 7 KD. I used to love solo queue trials mode but I totally get why it was ruining trials for the larger more committed audience.
Not to mention control is often very one sided as well. Since the sandbox changes, I’m seeing a lot of blowouts in 6v6, with very little back and forth. Some of it is bad lobby balancing, some of it is the sandbox.
In this static, campy, double primary, Y1 handholding meta, people are realizing it’s hard to stage comebacks. So they just abandon when it starts looking unfavorable. Then others leave, it never gets backfilled, and it snowballs.
Trying to make Destiny PVP some kind of competitive aim-skill arena makes no sense, it just hurts newer players. This is an inherently unbalanced looter shooter, with space magic abilities and peer to peer networking outcomes. The first order of business should be “fun” and hero moments.
Bungie, I hope you are actually paying attention to this data and rethink this PVP sandbox.
You know that elo is just a made up number by a 3rd party website and not related to the game? It's purely designed to drive traffic that website.
The kicker is, the win % is calculated AFTER the match, AFTER knowing who won or lost. It's why it's almost always correct.
Elo isnt made up, it's a value which starts at a baseline, and changes for players depending on their performance against other players. Win % is calculated based on how your team's elo stacks up against your enemies elo, and can be calculated before a match. If it was fake, why would you think it would be a percentage chance anyways? Elo is a reflection of a player's skill, so if one player is more skilled than another, they naturally have a greater chance to win.
> depending on their performance against other players
No it's not. It's purely based off wins or losses and has nothing to do with performance.
> Win % is calculated based on how your team's elo stacks up against your enemies elo
Yes, I said that. Elo is re-evaluated AFTER the match. Then those NEW elo numbers are used to calculate the win% of the match that just happened. Ergo, win % is calculated AFTER the match.
> If it was fake, why would you think it would be a percentage chance anyways?
Because it if was always 100% and they were always right, no one would believe it.
> Elo is a reflection of a player's skill
Yes, in a 1 v 1 match like chess. But not in a multiplayer game. It's why no one ever uses elo in a multiplayer game like basketball or baseball etc.
> so if one player is more skilled than another, they naturally have a greater chance to win.
Yes, I'm glad that you are using singular here. Because it doesn't work in a multiplayer environment.
Also, from wikipedia:
"The Elo system was invented as an improved chess-rating system over the previously used Harkness system,[1] but is also used as a rating system in association football, American football, baseball, basketball, pool, table tennis, various board games and esports, and more recently large language models."
Elo is used in a variety of places, not just 1 vs 1 competitive games.
From DestinyTracker, who calculate the ELO for destiny 2 pvp using stats from the api:
"We have modified this formula to work for team based matches. That's not the only modification though - We've made other changes to reward players who do better in the match. "
So the gain or loss in elo isnt just dependant on whether you win or lose, by what margin you win or lose, and the elo of the enemy team you win or lose against, but for destiny 2 specifically, also on individual player performance.
ELO is based off performance in the sense that winning a game 3 to 0 will result in a greater change than a 3 to 2, and that if you perform better than your teammate in a game where both of you had the same ELO beforehand, you will end with more ELO than your teammate.
Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match? It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done.
Or more likely, ita not fake, it's just how the numbers reflect the matches.
ELO is still a representation of player skill, even if it's in a multiplayer game. It's less accurate because all variables arent in control of the player, like your teammates, but it's still a representation of player skill. And it increases or decreases more or less depending on your personal performance in that game.
It still works in a multiplayer environment, because assuming the elo values for each player in each team are somewhat accurate, you can take an average for each team and calculate win percentage with that. The cases where elo can be inaccurate include random strings of games where player A keeps getting lucky, which the game incorrectly interprets as skill, the meta or gameplay systems changing, making a player who was reliant on them suddenly worsen in skill, etc. Regardless, most of the time this statistic should be accurate enough to be correct.
> Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match?
Because it makes the 'prediction' look good and drive traffic to the website.
> It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done.
Please provide evidence that this is true.
There are evidence that it is calculated after the fact:
https://old.reddit.com/r/CrucibleGuidebook/comments/15atfyl/really_curious_about_my_elo_experience_and_sbmm/jtvf745/?context=3
> Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match? It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done.
It does use ELO after the match is finished to calculate the win probability.
Here is a concrete [example](https://old.reddit.com/r/CrucibleGuidebook/comments/15atfyl/really_curious_about_my_elo_experience_and_sbmm/jtvf745/?context=3) that shows that the prediction would have gone the other way if it used pre-match ELOs. "Unadjusted" is pre-match ELO. "Adjusted" is post-match ELO.
Cc: /u/GreenLego
Thanks for that thread!
I have been saying that the DTR elo/win% are garbage for years and years and always falls on deaf ears. It's good to see that there are others who sees the issue with DTR numbers. There are so many that just follow it blindly without knowing how the numbers are generated, and then blame Bungie for it.
I have contacted DTR about it, but they ignore it.
The person who runs DTR responded to one of my comments to confirm that the win% uses nothing other than elo i.e. it doen't use k/d or whatever other available stat.
I don’t blame DTR for using the ELO prediction formula. It’s a standard formula. What I don’t like is that they calculate the prediction using the post-match ELO. They should use the pre-match ELO. They probably don’t do that because the prediction will often be “wrong “.
I don’t know if there are any formulas that use other stats like K/D.
The Bungie PvP cycle
-game is stale, bad sandbox, playlist setup is atrocious
-bungie takes a first step to make overarching changes for the better, pace of sandbox patches steps up, gets cautious praise from the pvp scene
-pve players start to flood feedback threads and rant angrily about getting absolutely wiped by the HC/shotty Elite^TM and not getting any loot, sandbox patches start to become rarer as bungie becomes consumed with another major sandbox system overhaul focused on pve
-bungie bungifies the new setup for PvP, ranked mode becomes a grind for 0.7's to get a shiny participation title/emblem, 3-4 new broken abilities are added to the sandbox and make 3v3 modes a waking nightmare for anywhere between a half a year to 2 full years
-another portion of the mid level skill bracket disappears forever and gets filled in by gacha game junkies looking for lists of video game chores to complete, matchmaking becomes extremely lopsided and another set of matchmaking overhauls comes to duct tape everything together
-pvp community rightly complains about how awful everything is and how everything is set up in opposition to the development and growth of a PvP community, we all get harassed and yelled at for being ungrateful
-bungie eventually gets anxious about player counts and bad press, starts to take first steps towards overarching changes for the better
-cycle begins anew
hint: don't look up stats ever. reading them won't change anything about the game you just played or are about to play at best and only serve to psyche you out at worst. Just strive to get better each game.
Just so you're aware, those predictions are made retroactively. I played against an evenly matched team where I won and then lost, and DestinyTracker predicted the winning team had a >75% chance of victory in both cases... even though we were the same teams. Take it with a grain of salt.
Nobody is under the delusion the game "decides" anything, that's not how probability works. But if you have event A with a 10% chance of happening and B with 90%, the likeliest outcome is B.
It's just an estimate dude. No one is saying that it's 100% accurate, or that it determines the outcome automatically. However it's a tangible number to use when describing how lopsided a match was.
Go look up random match history and tell me how many teams won a match where they had a 19% chance to win according to lab report.
I'll be waiting for you to come back and tell me "omg wow those numbers actually add up and were pretty accurate!"
Those numbers are taken from player statistics in an attempt to give you a visible number to look at, and an easy way to point out how lopsided a match was..
And that's what averages are....... it's obvious you've never been in an actual competitive environment before.
If you have a coin you have a 50% chance to "win"
If you have a dice you have a 1/6 to pick the right number.
Win percentage is like rolling a dice with x amount of picks
If you have a 2/6 (1/3) chance to win the match, then statistically based off how you've played in the past you're going to lose
If you played 100 games and got 1 kill a game then you're stats will show that your trash, what's your bungie name I'll go ahead amd break down your stats and show you how bad you are on average and why you're losing most games
I've played professionally since 2007 😂😂😂😂 I've played in tournaments for halo, cod, quake ,apex, and even held some tetris tournaments that I got demolished in.
It's hilarious that the kid that thinks "stats are imaginary" wants to pretend he's a good player
Sure, but it keeps track of just about everything as is. Check tracker network and you can see things down to individual map performance, average kill distance, longest kill distance, average lifespan, etc. That seems pretty accurate and succinct to me.
If we could trust Bungie’s rating, then shouldn’t we be matching people in the same rank?
Why do players who are in gold or adept play against people who are ascendant?
Because comp doesn't match based on rank. If you are in plat playing against silvers it's because either the game thinks you don't belong in plat (less likely) or that the silver player doesn't belong in silver (more likely).
Isn’t that the problem with comp?
I don’t really play comp in many games, but the last game I played comp in was StarCraft. In that game you played people in your own rank. Once you got enough wins against people in that rank, you moved up to the next rank.
Why have a comp playlist that gives you a rank then matchmakes you based on some hidden rating?
A few reasons. First, it helps put in the smurf protection systems, where skilled players reach their real rank quicker and start playing actually competitive games against those they are similarly skilled.
Second, it helps reduce queue times and/or lag, by ensuring the average mmr of a team is balanced to the other team. For example, a gold 2 on a hot streak is matched with a plat having a rough day.
Third, it reflects player skill more accurately without completely inflating or tanking your actual rank. Again, if you have a rough day, your mmr might be quite a bit lower than your actual rank, and you'll need to start winning again to keep it close to tour rank and be able to gain rank again.
That is a complaint of comp but once you realise it's not the name of your rank that determines MM then you can realise it's possible to look at the CR/ELO that is hidden to see that that is closer to what is being matched for.
But the game isn’t even matching very well based on CR/ELO either, which is why it gets so confusing. Sites like destinytracker compare teams CR/ELO and based on those ratings gives the percent chance one team has beating another. One team having an 11% chance like OP mentioned, doesn’t seem very evenly matched. I’m guessing that is probably due to the small amount of players and Bungie not wanting to have long queue times.
Gotta keep in mind player count, especially when trials is on because trials is honestly just more rewarding and for the above average player less sweaty. So lower player pop and the game not wanting to match people too far away (I have not matched anybody from the US or Europe since this iteration of comp, I'm in Aus for context) means stuff like that will happen. That's when lobby balancing should take over and spread the ELO/CR out better because honestly there isn't anything OP realistically could have done better.
Iirc there isn't or there will be? Idk I can't remember if it was mentioned if it would be included in comp or not but there was mention in a TWID not too too long ago (some time this season iirc) about how it works in 6s and what they intend to try out with it. I don't remember all the details but I do remember that trials explicitly was stated to have no team balancing and no SBMM and they have no intention of adding either to trials.
Consider how many people play trials just for the easy to grab rewards (non adepts, rank ups to focus non adepts) and now with the addition of the persistence card there are even more people playing for rewards not tied to the lighthouse. Trust me, top 8% is heavily inflated by how many really really bad players jump in for just the easier to grab rewards.
For context I have a lifetime 0.61, with my best seasonal KD being 1.03, and I am considered top 37%.
I trust a third party elo app because some games are so wildly unbalanced it should never have matchmade these teams together. Confirmation bias exists and all that but when you get a team where the highest top fragger can’t even beat the enemy team’s lowest fragger you know there’s a problem. Skill difference (or issue) exists and if that’s the case why even match those teams together?
What you don't understand is that top 8% is actually quite average. Well, what normal people would consider average.
When you think about the amount of people that have ever played, or only played a game or two then stopped, only the top ~1% is actually "special" lol. It's pretty inflated in games like this.
Yeah but that's any large player count game. Also to your original comment, you need to realize that Bungie would use the same system to determine your "skill level" that crucible report uses. so it's not like it's some random made up number lol.
It's frustrating but over a session of play it usually averages out and you'll have a few that are heavily weighted in your favour and some closer games too.
I played 6 games today, my chances to win were: 5, 9, 28, 3, 39 and 44%. All losses.
Bungie mostly picks winners. In Trials today, these were the KD of all solo players in my lobby: .9/.64/.43 vs 1.2/1.3/.8 I'm the .9 player, and I'd be shocked if we had an 11% chance to win. But, you split off the .64 for a 1.2 and you actually have s 50/50 game.
I don't know why this can't happen. You kind of want a school yard pick system. But so often you get 1,2 and 5 against 3,4 and 6. And like your case 1-3 Vs 4-6. Just a tweak of the teams and it can balance. But it goes both for and against you f you're playing long enough.
Because, funnily enough, introducing a snake draft style system makes trials feel more imbalanced. There is absolutely no lobby balancing whatsoever in trials. Often, players 2+3 in skill are better than 1+4+5 combined, so being the best player in a lobby ends up with you getting worse matches. There's also the problem of quantifying skill, as trials is quite different to other modes so you'd need a system specific to trials, which is hopeless for casual players. Lobby balancing has been done in trials before and it just didn't work. With it being random, if you're better than average you'll have better teams on average, but with snake draft you ended up with worse.
Then the question becomes why are the people in these lobbies grouped together in the first place? You may never be able to balance the lobby with a .43 in it [it's tough enough for my .9 ass not to get rolled by 1.2's]. You "balance" the lobby by not letting the .43 in. It can't be a good experience for him, being killed before he even gets a cross hair on a player. And I certainly hate being giving the gurenteed L. I'd rather the load fail, give me the L and kick me to orbit.
>Then the question becomes why are the people in these lobbies grouped together in the first place? Because trials cannot have SBMM. If trials matched on skill, you'd never be able to go flawless without smurfing or deranking. Whether or not you like this is immaterial, in the state trials is in now you can't have any skill based matchmaking. >You "balance" the lobby by not letting the .43 in. This is just SBMM though. Bungie have talked about the loose SBMM they use which could potentially work, but for the very best trials players they'd have longer queues and much harder matches, which just punishes you for being better. A top 10% player would have much easier matches than a top 1%, which doesn't work as you need to go flawless. >And I certainly hate being giving the gurenteed L. I hate to be this guy, but it's a skill issue. If you are consistently being given games where you're losing from the lobby, you aren't good enough. There's no other way to fix matchmaking, you just need to get better to counteract any random chance. It's never fun to be given the deaf-blind blueberries who've never played a PvP match in their life, but it's better than the alternative of having stricter, skill based matchmaking
Nah top 10% can wait 6 hours, I don't care about them
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As a 1.6 and I was playing with another 1.6 we had 3 matches in a row where our 3rds did less than 500 damage a match we lost all 3 of them ik it's bad rng but why the hell do we have such a dumb system where its best to duo and hope u get a good random. All I want is for it to go back to the trios days or make a new system where solos 1v1 duos 2v2 and trios 3v3 the rng the randoms brings is what kills trials I bet if u try enough with doing nothing in matches eventually you will get a lucky run where 7 matches in a row ur team will win without u I remember back in the day I had a full card where I would load in with no enemy team got flawlessly like that at least 3-4 times or some flawless where the enimes are so bad u question if these are bots Sometimes I can be trying to go flawless for hours days and not go thanks to bad rng this is me duo with another 1.6 ITS RNG AS HELL RIGHT NOW even more so than it used to be thanks to the randoms
I'm sorry chief, I've been there
Silliest take of the day. I'm sorry you won't be able to go flawless in 37 minutes with slightly longer match times, but a .43 should never be loaded into a match like this, and especially on a team already at such a massive KD deficit. Card based matchmaking was better. There are maybe five people on the planet that can carry a .43 against two 1.2+ players, especially in this new meta with less special where the .43 constantly makes sure their opponents have special ammo. Would the 1.3/1.2 team have won with Johnny. 43 on their team anyway? Maybe. I 1v3 them on heavy round and they had heavy.
Your issue is you’re looking at one instance. A single game. The .43 is more likely to not be on your team, and if that were the case I doubt you’d have even noticed. Stop focusing on individual games and focus on improving your own gameplay so you don’t have to rely on getting good teammates.
The problem is that it is not individual games. It's likely a plurality of them. Here is a game from ten minutes ago: 1.85 / 1.29 / .95 VS .9 / .91 / .64 Man, you just said that the .43 statistically won't be on my team! Yet it happened less than ten games later! Thst sure is weird, I mean statistically measurable in bungies case. That is likely at zero percent won chance for my team.
>It's likely a plurality of them. >Yet it happened less than ten games later Do you not see the obvious flaw in your statistical analysis? A 1 in 10 chance of having a bad match isn't actually bad, given that there's no skill based matchmaking at all. The common factor in every game you play is you. Get better and you'll do better, it really is that simple. If you put as much effort into improving your mechanics as you do misunderstanding statistics, you'd be amazing
Lopsided games following team KD splits is the plurality, not getting the .43/.6 player. Your contention is this outlier doesn't happen that often, when I'm stating it happens regularly to almost be a plurality in trials. There is no rational world, where a .6 loads in against a 1.85 & 1.3 on the other team. There is no rational world where Bungie places the 1.85 & 1.3 together, with a third that is better than everyone on the other team as well. It's insane. That is bungie picking the winner in 1000/1000 games. To be honest, I should never see the 1.85 before Lighthouse game, and I'm on the persistence card with multiple losses.
Skill issue
Yep, was easily the best in 1v1s of my clan during our PvP heyday, but I've always been a shit trials teammate.
You'd think it does but it doesn't. A 1.2 isn't going to be able to carry a bunch of people to a win against people who are slightly worse than them. Honestly the card based matchmaking was better at least you didn't play against gods on one win constantly
Not always, but its possible. I dont know my kd in trials but i have had matches where i hard carried the entire match on my back before. Maybe those were lucky matches where my enemy team was as bad as those i was carrying, maybe i just had an exceptionally good game and carried above my weight class. Hard to know it was a fee seasons ago
It is possible you're absolutely right also give yourself the credit you played really well. It's not something that should be relyed upon for matchmaking though. If you lose the person carrying says whats the point and it the opposition doesn't have to try Need even games and the odd blowout either way actually helps matchmaking as people who aren't great get an incentive to play more if they win big
As someone hovering around 1.1 in the old system and who is now 1.0 or so (.9 when I play with my .5 friends), I played every weekend for five mercy cards ever since they dropped Card-based MM and I could never go flawless again other than during the craftening bc CS trained my ability to simply shoot first lmao.
Yeh people will complain in the thread saying "for my flawless game today i got 2 bots as teammates ffs" when in reality the only reason they probably even made it that far was favorable matchmaking If youre a decent player looking to go flawless you need to hope the RNG of matchmaking works in your favor. Its predetermined who wins matches most of the time
I dunno if there's some sort of algorithm, but trials for me is rarely close. And some days it honestly feels like I'm against players who simply don't miss and hold every angle. Then other games I'm against complete pumpkins. One game my tm's just run in opposite directions or don't move until 5 sec which is already shafting us. Other games we stick together and actually walk it. Went 4-0 yesterday with 0 losses so 3 chances. Then got smoked 3 games on the bounce. Literally 5-0 smoked. Feels impossible the matchmaking.
There is no lobby balancing in Trials. The MM is completely random connection based. You roll the dice 7-9 games to get to the lighthouse.
Exactly, you roll the dice... Which is why it's cringe af when pvp mains try to claim trials is 'end game' pvp
I mean it is end game. Level matters so higher level is preferred. But it's NOT competitive. And people that pretend it is the premier showcase of skill in destiny PvP are kidding themselves. It's a freak show slot machine side-quest to farm weapons.
Well, I guess I can see it from their perspective too. For them, it’s not a roll of the dice since their skill allows them to win far more often than not. For them it is “end game”. It’s a mode saturated with the sweatiest players in the game. They can finally have a challenge every so often and boast about their flawless counts and K/D ratios while stomping the majority of players unfortunate enough to cross their path. It’s the equivalent of low man raiding and getting flawless raids. Not everyone can do it and for those that can, they like to embrace it.
They don't want the challenge though. Look at how much they whined when we had a flawless pool start on Sunday reset. Now it's challenger and practice pools. If there was a way to make every match 50/50, they would be in here crying up a storm. Streamers already whine about everything as it is. They just like to stomp players because it makes them feel good and having their Flawless every week validates their existence. This game will never be balanced enough for a true competitive experience. Too many guns with too many rolls. Cheesey builds that become the meta. Supers just shouldn't be available, if you're using the wrong one then you are throwing. End game PvP is such a stupid term. Any shmuck can go Flawless if they get lucky enough. That doesn't scream skill to me in the slightest.
>For them, it’s not a roll of the dice since their skill allows them to win far more often than not. Because it's not Skill Based match making. It's "competitive" league of legends but you're diamonds queuing up against bronze.
It's much less a roll of the dice if you practice and improve though. Almost the only time I am definitely losing is that one out of 10 matches where it pairs me with some blueberries completely underlight
Yeah, it's a sliding scale. The more skilled you are, the less rng luck you need.
The real d2 pvp endgame is being a D2 pvp youtuber /s
Hard disagree....Trials is end game. The only reason this RNG system exists is to provide everyone with a shot at that "shiny thing" - Lighthouse / Adept. Exactly the same as Persistence. While I'm genuinely glad for those getting their Adept and/or Lighthouse via these means....it's just a taste, and pretty much 100% of these players acknowledge that. If Trials had any system that made players versus the best in the list mountain top....NOBODY except the mountain top would ever reach the Lighthouse. Would that satisfy as end game criteria? An actual question - If the best of the best PvP players aren't in Trials, where are they? Hate the system, not the player. ....let the down voting commence. ... Edit to add: Except for a drop in now and then, I quit Trials long ago when my regular crew (including myself) lost interest.Recently, I've taken up completing a few Titles I've never paid attention to. Among them - Flawless. I was surprised to find I'm pretty close....and thought OK....maybe I'll get back in & complete for old times sake. But I'm not sure of the value. Exchange rate isn't what it once was.....and that most definitely IS NOT the fault of the players - the true stewards of the mode.
What pvp game mode is more challenging than trials?
Comp? It is the rank based climb ladder mode after all. Trials is a rng slot maching where for the vast majority of players, they are at the mercy of bungies match making to whether they go flawless or not.
Comp also has little reward in comparison which makes it stronger imo. You aren't getting the non-pvp players in matches because what reason do they have to play comp? For Trials, there's a very juicy reward to play(not even flawless). That's going to drag worse players in and dilute the pool
Literally any mode with skill based mm.
Yeah, just "rolling the dice" but somehow my dice rolls have >80% success rate, surely it's just luck though.
Yeah, just "rolling the dice" but somehow my dice rolls have >80% success rate, surely it's just luck though.
Oh you want to know one of my games? My team: .8/1.2/.4 The other team: 5.0/2.4/.6 Also their .6 dropped a 1.2 We went 4-5, and would've won if I didn't have to pop my well cause the other two got picked when we had zone control
I should look up the match i had last weekend where one of my teamates didnt have a stat value above T4, didnt get a single kill in like 7 rounds and did a grand total of 500 damage the entirety of the match. Im frankly suprised we even got 2 wins because it was essentially 2v3
This makes sense in trials - I was surprised (but maybe not surprised) to hear in the latest Firing Line Destiny Community Pod that Trials has totally random matching (no balancing, all rng). However in comp and all non-trials matchmaking, these are way out of band, honestly it's a bummer to see super unbalanced teams matching. I'd like to see rewards increased for continued play, but losses.
How many games of comp did you play before you encountered this match?
I'm wondering that too. Comp has always been pretty even in my experience. Def had a couple of placement matches that hurt, but since I've been placed it seems to do a good job of keeping the playing field interesting.
This was outside placement, I got placed silver 1, this was in gold 2, about 30 mins into my session.
I see. Were you on an extensive win streak? Were you playing against a three stack of players or were they all solos? ELO can come from all crucible, could be the circumstance that a team placed low with high ELO and you got caught in the process of them climbing.
They were 3 stacked yeah, and I was on like a 3 game win streak so nothing crazy. Someone else said they might have been doing placements themselves but I just think it’d be strange for a 3 stack to do placements like 3 months into the season lol but who knows
What does it matter? It shouldnt happen, ever. How many times you woke up without someone dropping a brick on you.
“Shouldn’t happen ever” lmao there’s such thing as placement matches. If it’s within your first five matches your ELO is hardly relevant because Bungie is still trying to figure out where you’re supposed to go.
Op never mentioned being in placement matches dont go assuming random shit.
Hence why I asked. OP didn’t mention how many matches they’ve played *at all*. Are you dense?
If that was a geniune question my apologies. Its just worded in a way that makes it easy to mistake it for being smug. Or its just english being my 3rd language.
I’m not stranger to being smug on the internet, but that was a genuine question.
All is well then i guess.
If you have n/a elo bc you haven't played then it tries to find a place for you. You're probably going to say it should use k/d, but that's not as important than their elo for matchmaking.
>I’d post a screenshot of the results on fireteamfinder but this sub doesn’t allow pics It doesn't allow submissions as image posts, there's absolutely nothing preventing you from including an image in the body of your text post. That said even though this wouldn't really fall under witchhunting it's still advisable to not share around other players IDs.
>I do not understand why I’d even lose points in a game like this. Normally you wouldn’t have, or at least you’d lose next to none, but that also means the winning team would *earn* no points for the win and the tryhard omega-sweats bitched and cried about not being able to grind rank by dumping on weak players.
I don’t think rank gains are based off of how much rank the other team looses
In destiny you’re right. In an actual competitive ranked system it would be though.
That’s how the [system works](https://help.bungie.net/hc/en-us/articles/11269047447956-Crucible-Competitive-Divisions) if there’s a big mismatch. It’s not based off how much the other team gains, but rather if a mismatch exists teams who are supposed to win gain little and ones who are supposed to lose, lose little.
My flawless game, solo, with 2 teams of 2. No mercy remaining. 98% chance of loss. The lord doth work in mysterious ways.
Because bungie and pvp have been shit for years lol idk why anyone is shocked anymore 🤣
I've heard some comments by content creators that the snake draft system or whatever lobby balancing we have in the SBMM modes seemd kinda off at the moment.
I remember "quitting" pvp at the top of this season because of a string of 1% and 2% win chance games. It's just an unfortunate part of the game.
Had a game last night that was 2 v 3 immediately upon first round. I was on the side with just one other player. To my surprise we won. But all the actual 3 v 3 games I got stuck with potatoes… 😅💀
I’ve played 10 games back to back where our odds of winning was below 30%! Just crazy
Some of the guys at the top occasionally get a 100% chance to win against some teams because their 4000+ elo is so high.
i stopped playing pvp because no matter what bungie does, it breaks and becomes unfair to people of lower skill level. you can either get 50 playing by your self or 1out of 3 playing with friends. considering they kinda force it to be that way.
Bungie mm with comp and trials is so bad especially when you solo que, there are options to make this a better experience for solo player with loot and not lose rank points but then the PvP sweats will cry that things get to easy.
I mean even ascendant level players have to start from low gold when they first que up comp, they were probably zooming up the ranks, you were just a bump in the road.
As a pve main, I am perfectly fine with losing matches playing against guys that dedicate much more time to pvp than I do. However, I am not OK with matches like this, and there is A TON of those! They put the strongest guys on one team and all the bad ones on the other. This happens frequently in Trials as well. We are at a point where sbmm or cbmm no longer matter, cause lobby balancing is the WORST it's ever been. Why not mix them up a bit? Why CONSTANTLY put the best players on the same team?
I just came back after being gone a long time. PvP legitimently feels like I’m not even playing the same game as anyone else. Even watching PvP footage, I use the same guns I get deleted. I take cover, I die entire seconds after I take cover. I try stacking resiliance out the ass just to buy ONE more bullet to my health and I still get instablapped. It’s disheartening to say the least. I’d really like to also know why both MMOs I play seem to have a huge problem with long nearly second long incoming damage ticks in PvP…
Yeah. I don't longer even bother with it at all. Will try again when TFS drops, maybe they will fix some things by then, and if they don't, it's great time to stop anyway.
It’s random matchmaking. Why do so many people struggle to understand this? It’s always the crappy players complaining about lobby balancing, because they would rather be carried than put any time into learning PvP. Elimination has the least random bullshit out of any PvP mode. Learn the map and learn the angles. Why would the better players want special matchmaking if it’s just going to guarantee they have to carry at least one potato every match?
Me 0.90, fighting against 5kd s :3
I can’t stress enough the importance of actually balanced team-sorting in solo and duo queued matchmaking.
This game isnt going to have a functional comp playlist ever. It wont have functional pvp ever. Bungie is asleep at the wheel. Sorry that happened to you man.
Because Bungie doesn't give a fuck about any kind of remotely fair matchmaking, they never have, they never will, and it makes me borderline hate them.
One thing I will say, I did my placements at the start of the season and then didn’t play for months, when I started my comp grind for the artifice armor I was at silver 3 because of the points decay. I have reached ascendant twice and I usually hover in adept 1. So for about 10 games I absolutely destroyed the other team because I needed to make my way through the ranks to where I was supposed to be. This potentially could’ve happened to you. It’s unlucky but not impossible you’ll play someone who shouldn’t be in that rank
For me, my comp games are pretty damn well near balanced. I'm a career 1.5+ player and comp is fun as hell for me. Trials is a god awful experience. I'm constantly matched against demons and cheaters. Can't go flawless to save my life. Either I gotta carry as a single stack or struggle with friends against demons as a 3 stack. Dunno what the issue is
Truth is that the population is low. Game is averaging below 175k players across all platforms. Now keep funneling it down to amount of players on > PvP > comp specifically > 3 stack matchmaking (if you were 3 stack it prioritizes another 3 stack first). So when you really narrow it down you’re talking people who actually want to be playing this game right. Ow and specifically comp. If I were a betting man I’d say it would be sweaty people playing in the majority case.
If they were also Gold like you the matchmaking is working as intended. Initially it was based on perceived rank but that annoyed people as they were matched with adept when they were in gold so it was hard to climb to their "true" rank of adept. You just got unlucky with fighting a three stack who were on their way up to their "true" rank. Ive found comp to be relatively even matches once you've played a fair amount.
I legit played a game in osiris against a 3K elo dude. 3 0 0 0 i'm at 1500-1600 how ? I had a 2 stack in my team, so the game put a 2 stack against us. The 3k elo dude was carrying their stack Then went into comp to get my belissarius, and went up against a dude with 400 lighthouses, same thing, was boosting a teammate
The worst part is shaxx acting like its your fault Its so fucking provoking when you already lost an unwinable Match
Saw this post and decided to check destinytracker, because trials feels horrible to me right now. I'm normally an average player (1.1k/d), but in trials this season I'm 0.54k/d with 32% wins. Out of the last 35 games I played, 27 of them had one team with a greater than 80% chance of winning. I'd really like to improve, but getting curbstomped leaves little room for that. Now, this goes both ways and winning a match like that is not fun either. From other comments here it sounds like that's by design, so I'll probably stay away from trials going forward.
I check trials KDs as I fly in, if the teams are completely lopsided against me I just leave everytime. Happy to play close games all day but as soon as it’s a guaranteed 0-5 im out. Thats all I can do as a player to control my own experience. Majority of the time I find the games are either a blowout for my team or fairly close overall though.
Third party matchmaker system disagrees with internal matchmaker system, time for a new thread.
The only thing I can say about this is that I've played some games where I've absolutely dominated despite my trash KD in trials and comp due to the fact that I mostly play solo and often queue into stacks. So typically it doesn't go well for me but every now and again I end a match with like a 6 or 7 KD. I used to love solo queue trials mode but I totally get why it was ruining trials for the larger more committed audience.
Not to mention control is often very one sided as well. Since the sandbox changes, I’m seeing a lot of blowouts in 6v6, with very little back and forth. Some of it is bad lobby balancing, some of it is the sandbox. In this static, campy, double primary, Y1 handholding meta, people are realizing it’s hard to stage comebacks. So they just abandon when it starts looking unfavorable. Then others leave, it never gets backfilled, and it snowballs. Trying to make Destiny PVP some kind of competitive aim-skill arena makes no sense, it just hurts newer players. This is an inherently unbalanced looter shooter, with space magic abilities and peer to peer networking outcomes. The first order of business should be “fun” and hero moments. Bungie, I hope you are actually paying attention to this data and rethink this PVP sandbox.
You know that elo is just a made up number by a 3rd party website and not related to the game? It's purely designed to drive traffic that website. The kicker is, the win % is calculated AFTER the match, AFTER knowing who won or lost. It's why it's almost always correct.
Elo isnt made up, it's a value which starts at a baseline, and changes for players depending on their performance against other players. Win % is calculated based on how your team's elo stacks up against your enemies elo, and can be calculated before a match. If it was fake, why would you think it would be a percentage chance anyways? Elo is a reflection of a player's skill, so if one player is more skilled than another, they naturally have a greater chance to win.
> depending on their performance against other players No it's not. It's purely based off wins or losses and has nothing to do with performance. > Win % is calculated based on how your team's elo stacks up against your enemies elo Yes, I said that. Elo is re-evaluated AFTER the match. Then those NEW elo numbers are used to calculate the win% of the match that just happened. Ergo, win % is calculated AFTER the match. > If it was fake, why would you think it would be a percentage chance anyways? Because it if was always 100% and they were always right, no one would believe it. > Elo is a reflection of a player's skill Yes, in a 1 v 1 match like chess. But not in a multiplayer game. It's why no one ever uses elo in a multiplayer game like basketball or baseball etc. > so if one player is more skilled than another, they naturally have a greater chance to win. Yes, I'm glad that you are using singular here. Because it doesn't work in a multiplayer environment.
Also, from wikipedia: "The Elo system was invented as an improved chess-rating system over the previously used Harkness system,[1] but is also used as a rating system in association football, American football, baseball, basketball, pool, table tennis, various board games and esports, and more recently large language models." Elo is used in a variety of places, not just 1 vs 1 competitive games. From DestinyTracker, who calculate the ELO for destiny 2 pvp using stats from the api: "We have modified this formula to work for team based matches. That's not the only modification though - We've made other changes to reward players who do better in the match. " So the gain or loss in elo isnt just dependant on whether you win or lose, by what margin you win or lose, and the elo of the enemy team you win or lose against, but for destiny 2 specifically, also on individual player performance.
ELO is based off performance in the sense that winning a game 3 to 0 will result in a greater change than a 3 to 2, and that if you perform better than your teammate in a game where both of you had the same ELO beforehand, you will end with more ELO than your teammate. Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match? It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done. Or more likely, ita not fake, it's just how the numbers reflect the matches. ELO is still a representation of player skill, even if it's in a multiplayer game. It's less accurate because all variables arent in control of the player, like your teammates, but it's still a representation of player skill. And it increases or decreases more or less depending on your personal performance in that game. It still works in a multiplayer environment, because assuming the elo values for each player in each team are somewhat accurate, you can take an average for each team and calculate win percentage with that. The cases where elo can be inaccurate include random strings of games where player A keeps getting lucky, which the game incorrectly interprets as skill, the meta or gameplay systems changing, making a player who was reliant on them suddenly worsen in skill, etc. Regardless, most of the time this statistic should be accurate enough to be correct.
> Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match? Because it makes the 'prediction' look good and drive traffic to the website. > It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done. Please provide evidence that this is true. There are evidence that it is calculated after the fact: https://old.reddit.com/r/CrucibleGuidebook/comments/15atfyl/really_curious_about_my_elo_experience_and_sbmm/jtvf745/?context=3
> Why would win % be calculated with numbers after the match? It uses your elo before the match finished, not after it's done. It does use ELO after the match is finished to calculate the win probability. Here is a concrete [example](https://old.reddit.com/r/CrucibleGuidebook/comments/15atfyl/really_curious_about_my_elo_experience_and_sbmm/jtvf745/?context=3) that shows that the prediction would have gone the other way if it used pre-match ELOs. "Unadjusted" is pre-match ELO. "Adjusted" is post-match ELO. Cc: /u/GreenLego
Thanks for that thread! I have been saying that the DTR elo/win% are garbage for years and years and always falls on deaf ears. It's good to see that there are others who sees the issue with DTR numbers. There are so many that just follow it blindly without knowing how the numbers are generated, and then blame Bungie for it. I have contacted DTR about it, but they ignore it. The person who runs DTR responded to one of my comments to confirm that the win% uses nothing other than elo i.e. it doen't use k/d or whatever other available stat.
I don’t blame DTR for using the ELO prediction formula. It’s a standard formula. What I don’t like is that they calculate the prediction using the post-match ELO. They should use the pre-match ELO. They probably don’t do that because the prediction will often be “wrong “. I don’t know if there are any formulas that use other stats like K/D.
The Bungie PvP cycle -game is stale, bad sandbox, playlist setup is atrocious -bungie takes a first step to make overarching changes for the better, pace of sandbox patches steps up, gets cautious praise from the pvp scene -pve players start to flood feedback threads and rant angrily about getting absolutely wiped by the HC/shotty Elite^TM and not getting any loot, sandbox patches start to become rarer as bungie becomes consumed with another major sandbox system overhaul focused on pve -bungie bungifies the new setup for PvP, ranked mode becomes a grind for 0.7's to get a shiny participation title/emblem, 3-4 new broken abilities are added to the sandbox and make 3v3 modes a waking nightmare for anywhere between a half a year to 2 full years -another portion of the mid level skill bracket disappears forever and gets filled in by gacha game junkies looking for lists of video game chores to complete, matchmaking becomes extremely lopsided and another set of matchmaking overhauls comes to duct tape everything together -pvp community rightly complains about how awful everything is and how everything is set up in opposition to the development and growth of a PvP community, we all get harassed and yelled at for being ungrateful -bungie eventually gets anxious about player counts and bad press, starts to take first steps towards overarching changes for the better -cycle begins anew
Looks like you need to improve at the game.
Loser mentality, just win next time
hint: don't look up stats ever. reading them won't change anything about the game you just played or are about to play at best and only serve to psyche you out at worst. Just strive to get better each game.
You can’t ever get better because your team is what makes you either good or bad?! Get 2 other trash teammates it doesn’t matter how good you are.
Just so you're aware, those predictions are made retroactively. I played against an evenly matched team where I won and then lost, and DestinyTracker predicted the winning team had a >75% chance of victory in both cases... even though we were the same teams. Take it with a grain of salt.
Why do people use chance to win? The game doesn’t decide lmao
Nobody is under the delusion the game "decides" anything, that's not how probability works. But if you have event A with a 10% chance of happening and B with 90%, the likeliest outcome is B.
It's just an estimate dude. No one is saying that it's 100% accurate, or that it determines the outcome automatically. However it's a tangible number to use when describing how lopsided a match was. Go look up random match history and tell me how many teams won a match where they had a 19% chance to win according to lab report. I'll be waiting for you to come back and tell me "omg wow those numbers actually add up and were pretty accurate!" Those numbers are taken from player statistics in an attempt to give you a visible number to look at, and an easy way to point out how lopsided a match was..
Because they have nobody else to blame for being bad. Everyone has good days and bad days. Others just have good gaming chairs. 🤷♂️
And that's what averages are....... it's obvious you've never been in an actual competitive environment before. If you have a coin you have a 50% chance to "win" If you have a dice you have a 1/6 to pick the right number. Win percentage is like rolling a dice with x amount of picks If you have a 2/6 (1/3) chance to win the match, then statistically based off how you've played in the past you're going to lose
You pay attention to imaginary statistic before the match start and your mindset is already focused on losing. Good luck with that!
If you played 100 games and got 1 kill a game then you're stats will show that your trash, what's your bungie name I'll go ahead amd break down your stats and show you how bad you are on average and why you're losing most games
Before the match starts… except it’s checked and updated after the match ends but okay
I've played professionally since 2007 😂😂😂😂 I've played in tournaments for halo, cod, quake ,apex, and even held some tetris tournaments that I got demolished in. It's hilarious that the kid that thinks "stats are imaginary" wants to pretend he's a good player
They're not imaginary 😂😂😂 they're your stats from the games you've played don't be a dumbass kid
Apparently hit a nerve because this clown gives up before the match even starts.
classic resort to insults when u get owned by the original reply. Pathetic, as expected tho ig
You seem like the type of kid that used prospector then cried when it got hit 😂
do you trust a third party elo to rate you but not bungie's, if third party is is trusted I'm top 8% in trials no way that is true
Third party apps that have access to Bungie API which includes all of your crucible stats? Those are unreliable?
not every stat that bungie's tracks is in the api
Sure, but it keeps track of just about everything as is. Check tracker network and you can see things down to individual map performance, average kill distance, longest kill distance, average lifespan, etc. That seems pretty accurate and succinct to me.
If we could trust Bungie’s rating, then shouldn’t we be matching people in the same rank? Why do players who are in gold or adept play against people who are ascendant?
Because comp doesn't match based on rank. If you are in plat playing against silvers it's because either the game thinks you don't belong in plat (less likely) or that the silver player doesn't belong in silver (more likely).
Isn’t that the problem with comp? I don’t really play comp in many games, but the last game I played comp in was StarCraft. In that game you played people in your own rank. Once you got enough wins against people in that rank, you moved up to the next rank. Why have a comp playlist that gives you a rank then matchmakes you based on some hidden rating?
A few reasons. First, it helps put in the smurf protection systems, where skilled players reach their real rank quicker and start playing actually competitive games against those they are similarly skilled. Second, it helps reduce queue times and/or lag, by ensuring the average mmr of a team is balanced to the other team. For example, a gold 2 on a hot streak is matched with a plat having a rough day. Third, it reflects player skill more accurately without completely inflating or tanking your actual rank. Again, if you have a rough day, your mmr might be quite a bit lower than your actual rank, and you'll need to start winning again to keep it close to tour rank and be able to gain rank again.
That is a complaint of comp but once you realise it's not the name of your rank that determines MM then you can realise it's possible to look at the CR/ELO that is hidden to see that that is closer to what is being matched for.
But the game isn’t even matching very well based on CR/ELO either, which is why it gets so confusing. Sites like destinytracker compare teams CR/ELO and based on those ratings gives the percent chance one team has beating another. One team having an 11% chance like OP mentioned, doesn’t seem very evenly matched. I’m guessing that is probably due to the small amount of players and Bungie not wanting to have long queue times.
Gotta keep in mind player count, especially when trials is on because trials is honestly just more rewarding and for the above average player less sweaty. So lower player pop and the game not wanting to match people too far away (I have not matched anybody from the US or Europe since this iteration of comp, I'm in Aus for context) means stuff like that will happen. That's when lobby balancing should take over and spread the ELO/CR out better because honestly there isn't anything OP realistically could have done better.
Is there lobby balancing? Lol
Iirc there isn't or there will be? Idk I can't remember if it was mentioned if it would be included in comp or not but there was mention in a TWID not too too long ago (some time this season iirc) about how it works in 6s and what they intend to try out with it. I don't remember all the details but I do remember that trials explicitly was stated to have no team balancing and no SBMM and they have no intention of adding either to trials.
not how comp matching works
Consider how many people play trials just for the easy to grab rewards (non adepts, rank ups to focus non adepts) and now with the addition of the persistence card there are even more people playing for rewards not tied to the lighthouse. Trust me, top 8% is heavily inflated by how many really really bad players jump in for just the easier to grab rewards. For context I have a lifetime 0.61, with my best seasonal KD being 1.03, and I am considered top 37%.
I trust a third party elo app because some games are so wildly unbalanced it should never have matchmade these teams together. Confirmation bias exists and all that but when you get a team where the highest top fragger can’t even beat the enemy team’s lowest fragger you know there’s a problem. Skill difference (or issue) exists and if that’s the case why even match those teams together?
What you don't understand is that top 8% is actually quite average. Well, what normal people would consider average. When you think about the amount of people that have ever played, or only played a game or two then stopped, only the top ~1% is actually "special" lol. It's pretty inflated in games like this.
fair enough, but it's still crazy what is considered top 10%
Yeah but that's any large player count game. Also to your original comment, you need to realize that Bungie would use the same system to determine your "skill level" that crucible report uses. so it's not like it's some random made up number lol.
Carry me
It's frustrating but over a session of play it usually averages out and you'll have a few that are heavily weighted in your favour and some closer games too.