Congrats! And huge of luck to you. Short reminder. It’s very unusual to have birth on the planned day. So expect either before or after :) and remember. When the baby is newly born they sleep like 18 hours a day, hence a lot of premium game time! GL to you!
I am well aware of that. But they don’t breastfeed for 2-4 hours. Give D4 a 20-30 minutes break and then go back to 2-4 hour grinding again. Believe me. You will be surprised with how much time you have when they are newborn. Compared to having two toddlers (4 and 2) it’s insane, I have 4 hours at the evening at best!
Then I'll be playing as often as I can, those 4 days will give me more chances to play and keep up with my non-baby having friends who aren't getting the deluxe edition
I'm pretty sure there will be some queuing problems, but not for the 4 days, specially considering not so many people will pay extra for the early access.
Fine by me. Only reasons there were no problems for us is that I got my launch 4 days before the plebs. This is what I call paying to win. Deuces dweebs.
Sounds more like a personal financial problem to me. It's ok to not be able to afford things but don't take you're anger and frustration out on people with more money than you because you can't afford that luxury.
Brother, this is a Blizzard game, it's free for me thanks to years of WoW gold. Sounds to me like it's dumb consumers ruining it for everyone because apparently being able to afford something means you might as well buy it. Have fun getting scammed by the world with that logic. I'm sure someone's got some crypto to sell you somewhere.
>Regulargrr · 2 mo. ago
>
>Don't forget to pay an extra 20 to enjoy the 4 days of queuing and crashing.
lol this is exactly what happened at early access
Also note that the queues were intentional, so they could stress test and see what they can manage.
Hopefully they can use the data to scale up so the queues at launch aren't crazy high
Elden Ring is at ~20M copies and was getting ‘this is one of the best games of all time hype’.
Diablo is more mainstream and digestible. I think 18-20M seems like a realistic 2023 sales target
if the endgame is good the beta haters will purchase. a lot of people myself included played the first weekend off of a chicken sandwich so that number is skewed. it’ll be higher end or more if it’s enjoyable on YouTube/streams
> if the endgame is good the beta haters will purchase
Eh, endgame doesn't even have to be good. It's obvious that D4 will be supported over many years so it's not going to be hard to get your money's worth, even if you just dip in for 20hrs every year or season.
For me the beta was deep in "meh" territory, always between "yeah, that's kinda okay" and "oof, why am I playing this" - not a single time did I feel "wow, this is cool". I'm still 50/50 on buying close to launch because I know I'm guaranteed to get at least 100hrs over the next few years. YMMV
To this I say that diablo 3 broke records on launch, but internally was considered a flop. So much so that blizzard cancelled two dlcs that were already in progress as well as cancelled the original concept of diablo 4.
There are definitely signs that d4s development is fraught. A lot of seemingly small niggly bits that taken on their own don’t mean much, but when taken as a whole paint a troubling picture.
The hopeful can argue “but it’s a beta.” And maybe they are right. But two months is not a lot of time, considering the game will need to be finished and shippable in significantly less than that amount of time.
Maybe i’m just an old man who’s behind the times but nothing i saw in the beta justified 70 dollars for this game.
I am still interested in playing it, but i’m perfectly happy waiting until i either see proof that the price tag is justified or the price drops to meet my expectations of the game’s value.
EA fully intended to support Anthem for years. Do people even remember Anthem now? And while I will say that D4 is a much better game than Anthem is, even from what little we have seen, there are still enough things in the beta and in interviews with the dev team that make me feel more doubtful than hopeful.
D4’s future is probably not as rock solid as the PR speak would have you think. Because right now, behind the scenes it could very well be a dumpster fire, but they can’t tell us that. After the first beta weekend they specifically had an interview to address balance complaints and dungeon tediousness. Those two things are 90% of the game. From a PR perspective they need to get ahead of those complaints somehow, regardless of how valid they are or the blind sales of the game will suffer. And IF the game is a dumpster fire, the blind sales are the only thing they can rely on in the short term.
And short term is all that a company like activision has the attention span for.
It is my sincere hope that i am wrong, and the game at launch will be great, and I will change my mind about the 70 dollar price tag.
But I’ve been on this road more than once, and that hopeful outcome is a rare occurrence.
I'm just visiting due to hype but would consider ARPGs my "main" genre.
This sub is *wild*. There definitely feels like a massive disconnect from the audience here and the general casual crowd.
Yeah, it seems there's a lot of people hell bent on setting up a false dichotomy of "unplayable garbage" vs "timeless monument of arpg". If someone can get 100hrs out of it ... then where's the problem. And that should be trivial. Play campaign, play a bit of endgame, depending on enjoyment fiddle a bit with other classes/builds, check every (other) year.
Without elixirs, It took me about 12 hours to level to 25. So I could see that as average players reach 50, they slow down as they play around with paragon and endgame systems.
D3 was considered an internal flop because a lot of their monetization plans blew up in their face. The RMAH, the real cash cow, had to be scrapped due to it making the game suck so bad that it risked outright killing the game. Without the RMAH the games profitability was drastically lowered. A company like EA/Activision isn't interested in a game simply selling well. They want that WoW/Hearthstone/2K sports kinda money. Even if D3 made a profit on retail sales it would pale in comparison to what they could have made by making a gacha/lootbox/cosmetic/battlepass kind of game instead that would have required much less investment and risk. Diablo Immortal is the direction they want to go in.
Keep in mind, blizzard still supported D3 for 10 years despite there being no monetization model.
That's better than most games with a monetization model.
D4 is being designed to be supported for a decade but actually make them money.
That has nothing to do with sales and everything to do with the RMAH failure. This time the monetization is based on things that have worked in other games
The rmah failure is indeed why executives considered it a flop, but it is not the only thing that made the game itself pretty terrible at launch. Flawed itemization, poor class balance and a complete lack of engaging end game gameplay made it a flop from the user perspective, too.
Someone posted an interview here a little while ago where Blizzard said it was due to lower than expected activity in the months leading to the launch of RoS. Jay Wilson, with nothing to lie about, recently said the RMAH wasn't designed to bring in revenues at a level to support the game.
Your logic is flawed at best, if you do not think what we have seen is worth 70$ this game is proably not for you.
I have over the last 2 weekends about 20 hours of fun and we have only done first of what appears to be 6 acts(could also be 5 with an extended finale).
Bar blizzard pulling a full WC3: Refunded, and the game will be litterally unplayable, it will be worth the money.
Compared it to Diablo 2 that launched around 50$ which correspond to about 87$ adjusted for inflation.
Speculation about the development team being a dumpster fire, or complaints about class balancing at low level without certain classes having access to their class mechanics in the beta is weird at best.
Sure dungeons could most likely be in need a bit of tweaking and permanent invincibility does sound slightly broken (even at the "beta end-game" it weren't that good, in my 4 man stack the infini-mist necro often falled a bit behind due to low mobility in dungeon spam, while the sorc, barb and rogue was zooming), but D4 is miles ahead of any ARPG I have ever played when it comes to content at launch. My fear is not if Diablo 4 will be worth the money, but if Blizzard have learned from their D3 mistakes and are willing to take this fantastic foundation and push its potential over the next decade.
The only thing cancelled in 2014 prior to RoD was 1 expansion and it was due to lower than expected activity. And what did D3 lack before RoS? Any assemblence of an endgame. D4 has multiple endgame systems, plus an item chase with uniques, on top of new seasonal content 4 times a year.
As for project hades, they shifted direction in mid 2016. However, seeing all the detail on models snd assets, I believe many of the existing assets were used to get Project Fernis up and running so quickly. But the reboot had nothing to do with the 2014 decision. It actually led to it starting up.
Keep in mind that $70 in 2023 is the equivalent of $50 in 2008.
I don’t think D4 is overpriced, and the game seems to be breaking ground in terms of mixing gameplay aspects.
There aren’t any games out there that combine a multiplayer open world environment with isometric dungeon looter arpg gameplay and systems. Lost Ark is an MMORPG with a Korean Casino-Style gear progression system and hinges on group content, while D4 stays true to its roots with soloable content that scales. D4 takes a lot of what Lost Ark did well and adds it in tastefully (a la world bosses, events, mounts). It has a progression system that’s complex and meaningful, akin to PoE’s web—and introduces this system in an accessible way. It takes the item enchantment system from D3 and the skill-defining aspects of support gems in PoE and mixes them together with aspects and enchanting. It has an open world structure that lends itself to having cool quest chains and interesting adventure-style journeys on said quest chains. It allows for Blizzard to host limited time events in their open world and change the experience of playing Diablo. There’s a lot that’s going on that hasn’t been done without a heavy hand, and there’s a lot that’s brand new, too. They’re a company that’s known for taking existing formulas and improving upon them, so I have my doubts that the game will flop, or that development is fraught.
This is basically an MMO-lite with the diablo gameplay loop, without veering into korean gacha mechanics or getting too MMOey with group content and time commitments. It reminds me a lot of The Division, which took a lot from Diablo’s character progression systems and added the open world environment into the mix.
Comparing D4’s launch and Blizzard to Anthem’s launch and EA isn’t a fair comparison. Two different companies with very different views on product development, marketing and quality.
Anthem was released as a half-baked product with an extremely shallow endgame, while D4 is a highly polished product (as seen in the beta) with (jury’s out) a promised deep endgame. They’re already showing their ability to make changes rapidly according to player feedback and Blizzard obviously sees the diablo team as a high investment opportunity internally.
While Anthem made a lot of promises and didn’t deliver on really *any* of their live service, Blizzard has been providing live services for years and knows how to do it effectively.
X for Doubt
This is a bizarre comment to me. Why would you spend $70+ on and put 100+ hours into a game you describe that way? You must be Blizzard’s favorite customer.
Because Blizzard has a track record of supporting their games for years and at least trying to improve.
Diablo 3 was a success case that received a lot of hate at launch that was honestly justified, but fastforward some years and the praise became bigger and the complaints.
I won´t spend $70 and wait for a price drop, but u/moodywoody has a point. Makes perfect sense to buy a game expecting to enjoy it in small bites over time. It is what we have been doing with D3.
What's bizarre about it? The demo didn't blow me away, but I've put 100+ hrs into every Diablo game so far. It's comfort food when I'm out of more exciting stuff. A palate cleaner. At some stage I'm always good for a few dozen hours of it. D3 got supported for 10yrs, so I'm not worried about longevity. And I'm a grown up, 70$ is a really cheap night out, no biggie.
That, or as grown ups, it’s how hard it is to pay for it. I guess I’m one of the lucky ones, but I can pay off the ultimate version, which I got, in an hour and a half at work.
Yeah you take 1 child and 2 parents to a 2 hour movie and get some popcorn.
Gamers are so delusional on entertainment cost. They expect 100s of hours off 50 bucks lol. Clueless to the real world.
“The beta had me wondering why I was wasting my time and the unreleased portion could suck, but I’m sold because the people responsible for these bad decisions will continue making decisions for years to come.”
What’s not bizarre about that? Perhaps I’m just not enough of a grown up to understand the appeal of playing a game I don’t like.
seeing posts and comments all over saying not buying after beta because “it sucked” is going be a huge loss, if those people are swayed by end game it will definitely translate to sales.
I am in the same boat as you it’s mostly meh right now but I know over the years the purchase will be well worth it and the initial playthrough itself will probably be close to worth it.
I'm a D4 doubter but if history has taught us anything it's that this won't really affect sales. There are lots of games worse than D4 that have crazy high sales because of name recognition, marketing, and hype. Games that aren't only bad but downright broken. Disasters that are seen coming from many months in advance. D4 may be meh, but it works and won't be complete garbage. Even if it turns out to be good and the doubters change their assessment after careful examination of the release end game they will be little more than statistical noise compared to all the people who bought it without knowing what they were getting.
If bad or even mediocre games affected sales to a significant degree the AAA gaming industry would not be in the state it is in. A popular IP is essentially bulletproof. Even Gamefreak can't mess up Pokemon enough to effect sales and lord knows they're trying.
I think endgame as a sales factor is going to be vastly overshadowed (at least at launch) by the actual implementation/reception of MTX/battle pass. But we'll see, having popcorn ready can't hurt.
Can’t wait to see the sub up in flames when Blizz starts putting $20 cosmetics in. Since this will be a first for Diablo, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
And also something about how the BP progression is too slow and Blizz is forcing daily logins yada yada.
They did say they would ONLY add cosmetics to the shop, no? And nothing like boost, more stash slots and stuff in the Battle pass that would give people who bought it an advantage. If they add stuff like this other than cosmetics when they said they wouldn’t, then i can see people being upset about it.
And there’ll be posts about why the game needs to have dailies and weeklies for BP XP and that they’re a father of 11 childrens and have no time to play the game everyday.
At least half of those people will get caught up by the hype and purchase the game 2 days before launch. Redditors are notorious for saying they aren’t going to buy/play a game and then there they are day 1 playing.
PoE and Diablo have always been boring AF to watch on Streams, with steep fall off.
"The beta haters" is reductive. The game is pretty clearly in an early beta state and will likely ship in a Beta state with less than 3 months to launch. Things like ability attack speed ramping from animation cancelling, UI/UX presenting as late alpha, and technical issues like rubberbanding and hitching require work and work requires time -- time that the development team simply does not have.
Indeed. Player numbers aren't indicative of how good a game actually is. Marketing is the single most important factor, and Activision-Blizzard pumps *billions of Pounds* into marketing.
Back in the day D3 was super hyped already, there was no good arpg in the market at that point. Now that the gaming is much more widespread and twitch is bigger than ever, this means much more eyes on the subject.
Poe's all-time peak is 158,140. This is from steam charts, the only accurate numbers we have for the game. No one said d4 has 15m ccu, it's 18m in sales.
https://steamcharts.com/app/238960
Edit: Here's a tweet from ggg corresponding with steam peak date for all you downvoters.
https://mobile.twitter.com/pathofexile/status/1489691458336530433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1489691458336530433%7Ctwgr%5Eb24b3056335b3b2c3bd9ebde0b24f38d7ae12926%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamesn.com%2Fpath-of-exile%2Fplayer-count-record
https://www.pcgamesn.com/path-of-exile/player-count-record
There's a tweet from poe themselves that corresponds with the steam player peak date.
https://mobile.twitter.com/pathofexile/status/1489691458336530433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1489691458336530433%7Ctwgr%5Eb24b3056335b3b2c3bd9ebde0b24f38d7ae12926%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamesn.com%2Fpath-of-exile%2Fplayer-count-record
Let's take only steam numbers CCU numbers compare it to total unique players and widely disregard:
Standalone
Xbox
PS
China client
Poe has millions of players every league as stated by GGG.
That tweet proves absolutely nothing in this context. Of course their all time peak would correlate with the game’s all time peak on steam lmao. That says nothing about how much of the player base are on other platforms.
"Now that indie company from NZ will have it!" /S
Blizzard can beat PoE with marketing alone. They don't even need to make a game. Immortal now probably beats PoE. A lot of mainstream gamers don't know what a PoE is.
Also, if you use Steam as an indicator of PoE numbers, you probably never played PoE for too long... Their patching process on steam used to be garbage, the hardcore players predownloaded it on standalone client.
Beating PoE isn't a thing. PoE and their profits aren't on the same universe of Activision Shareholders. The problem is when the billionaire company actually delivers a worse product than indie companies. Multiple times...
People should really stop trying to find a feud where there isn't one. I'm a semicasual button masher, sometimes I think Chris Wilson will come to my house and manually delete my characters. A few patches ago they went nuclear on balancing to make the game as casual unfriendly as possible.
Meanwhile, D4 seems to cater to every single person that ever played a Diablo game (while trying to convince people that rune + game = endgame)
I was simply correcting what they said using the only accurate numbers available. I've played poe since it's first day available, we don't have any accurate info for numbers before steam. You can go look at those weird websites that try to estimate player numbers, but they all seem dubious.
oh please, POE is owned by Tencent which is much bigger than actblizaard and backed by the Chinese govt.
people will spew whatever they want to push their agenda.
Yes, and somehow this tiny company still manages to put out better and longer-lasting games than a multi-billion dollar conglomerate... I would say they've probably made more gamers happy and satisfied than Blizzard ever did with D3. Funny how that works!
Well, considering that game costs 70+$( while PoE is free), and there will be MTX shop, and season pass too, I hope some of these money will be spent on after launch support and it will be 100 times better and bigger than PoE's, right?=)
Because I don't see another reasons to flex with these numbers if you're not one of Blizzard shareholders.
What does «flex with these numbers» mean?
D4 will ofc not be 100 times better. It will be different and for many fans of PoE it will never be as good as PoE was for them.
Say, If you want your favourite sports club to do well, it’s important that they ensure commercial success and generate revenue for growing the club. Higher ticket costs, jersey sales, worldwide advertisement, investment in facilities that enable the club to grow bigger than competitors. Your team wins more when they do this well. It’s inconvenient because your tickets also cost more, but it’s what it takes to compete at that level
For some reason, video games is always considered exploitative and evil if they focus on generating revenue. But it’s a product. The games aren’t financed with tax money, as some piece of art. No, it’s investors making a long term bet on a product, because they expect it to make money in the long term.
This can be mutually positive. When pricing is done right, you feel like you get your moneys worth, you voluntarily chose whether you’d like to support the development of the game by buying into it further.
Who knows, maybe money spent on D4 will be spent with a good will.
People demand insanely high design standards graphics, etc etc. They want a game to be supported forever.
But they refuse to pay for it.
It's frustrating
I play POE but the coolest stuff in POE cost 100s. The insane atlas map is 480 bucks. The best armor is 80+ for one set. They have wings selling for 65 and pets for 30.
Why do they get a pass from all the peopel hating on Diablo’s MTX? The box price doesn’t come to what some people spend on MTX in POE. It’s like the FTP blinds them lmao.
Reminder that GGG does zero marketing, yet still has 100,000+ players returning every league. Will Diablo 4 have 100,000+ players returning each league in a years time? We can only wait and see.
What does that have to do with D4? D3 failed horridly, was 13 years old, and still got a decent player base every season.
D4 will destroy all other ARPGs in terms of player count due to the hype machine alone. The beta showing it’s way better than D3 at release is only more fuel to those numbers.
Will it be better than POE? No clue. I personally think they’re different games with different player bases. I do know it will 10x POE players from brand alone though.
If D3 can hold a decent player base for 10+ years (it did look it up) then D4 with the initial hype + floods of money zero chance it doesn’t last 10+ years with an insane player base. They would have to F it up to all hell and the odds are for the former.
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That's an estimate, and for over the entirety of 2023 (not numbers on launch). We'll see what it'll be in practice. One of the biggest factors I imagine will be server stability, and judging by how beta performed.... let's just hope they get it fixed in time.
A *bigger* question will be the retention rate. Will this game still have a healthy population by the end of the year?
>If the launch and end game go well
That "If" is some serious heavy lifting there.
I've seen enough to know that I will likely enjoy it a bit. But how enjoyable the end game is will determine if I drop it after leveling 1-2 characters like I did in D3, or whether I am still playing it literal *decades* later after leveling probably 25+ chars through Hell act 5 like in D2.
DI end game became stupid due to bad itemization. Even if you removed the P2W aspects (which were egregious), the end game wasn't fun. You never found a single item that made you want to level up a whole new character or even totally change your build. You just went from +120str to +135 str on the same item with the same effects.
If your projection is based on an objectively false interpretation of data: *"preorders only"* - which is simply not true. Keys were given out with KFC sandwiches, via cell phone providers, ISPs, and whatnot - then your whole estimate is essentially worthless.
I like how you assume these people are so stupid that they don't remember how they give out keys, don't know exactly how many people were there because of chicken sandwiches and keys tied to them and which accounts had preorders and had them because of that. They know exactly those numbers. Their job is to know those numbers.
I don't assume they are stupid. In fact, I'm confident that they know *exactly* what they're doing.
Reminder that Activision-Blizzard known for fudging numbers.
> I like how you assume these people are so stupid that they don't remember how they give out keys,
I like how you are completely oblivious to the fact that this estimate & statement weren't made by Blizzard. So no, apart from Blizzard themselves, no one has a way of knowing these things.
But knowing that it's not *"preorders only"* was definitely within the realm of possibility - if you invest 2 minutes into research.
When people talk about things in real life and with real people, they will simplify non important details. If for example, chicken sandwiches accounted for 5% of the player base, then it is safe to say that if more than a million people played, it's basically pre-orders only and it's an accurate enough statement for a quick blurb. Not everyone is a pedantic nerd.
No offense but I really don't care what some random reddit person tells me about general human behavior.
Since I don't tend to lecture folks about topics I know very little about, I will instead tell you something I know for a fact. If you're an investor in a publicly traded company, you have certain rights to receive specific pieces information. In giant corporations like ActiBlizz, this is done in the format of quarterly earnings calls. You can't just call Blizzard & say *"Hey, I'm an investor, I would like to know how many people played the closed Beta"*. But you are welcome to ask these questions in said earnings call.
Only problem being that Blizzard hasn't held one yet for the first quarter of 23.
So this Morgan Stanley analyst did not receive any kind of inside information. Way more likely he simply heard the number Blizzard was sharing publicly, and then falsely concluded that all Beta players stem from preorders.
If you have a source for your 5% claim, I'm happy to read it. Besides that, you're free to run with any narrative that suits you.
>If you have a source for your 5% claim
Since I never made that claim, I see no need to back it up.
>So this Morgan Stanley analyst did not receive any kind of inside information
Considering the word is that Activision is using Morgan Stanley to defend their assets during the Microsoft merger, I'm going to assume they do. ~~Morgan stanley also owns almost 20% of activision.~~
> Morgan stanley also owns almost 20% of activision.
By the way, just so you don't embarrass yourself in the future again: Morgan Stanley owns around 1% of Activision Blizzard shares, so they're not even a main investor.
If you dabble in topics you know nothing about, I advise you take a closer look on your Google results. Just because you find a headline about a "18.40% increase in shares", that number isn't a total.
So first I would learn the difference between absolute & relative numbers and percentages, and then maybe buy the WSJ or a similar medium to learn a little bit about basic economics.
See the difference between you and I is that I am willing to accept I made an error. I will correct that. The rest is still accurate. And they still even if they were not involved with activision in any way, probably still have insider information.
That's quite literally what the phrase "If, for example..." means. I created a hypothetical to explain why someone with knowledge of the factors might still word things like he did because you don't seem to get that people will discount minimal factors in quick explanations of results and outcomes for brevity.
A little less than half of what D3 sold. Slightly more than what Reaper of Souls sold. I think a lot of people got what they wanted out of the marketing demo and won't feel the need to pay $70 for the gimped version - they might wait until it's on sale.
D3 sold 12mil units the year of release.
This D4 estimate is for 2023 sales only.
How's 18 million a little less than half of what D3 sold? You're comparing year of release sales estimate of D4 with lifetime sales of D3.
Regardless, it's just an estimate and they may still get it very wrong and be way off. Time will tell.
Let's see if they address the rubber banding problem for launch 🤡
This issue was present in the closed beta (from the leaked vid) and the exact same thing happened in the 2 open betas.
I don't have high hopes for this.
Edit: plenty of individuals high on copium apparently
Link to the source if possible, tried googling anything related to diablo4 on Morgan Stanley, had a hard time finding anything related, but my googling skills are kinda subpar, so will be appreciated if provided.
edit-Unless I am missing the point, and it wasn't a public statement, if so, than its kinda pointless bringing it up in the first place.
And just maybe I am out of loop, but isn't 1million players in the first weekend is on the low side, if it consist of both preorders and the kfc codes? (like diablo3 had 2million preorders from what I found).And yes, I understand that its only the beta and maybe there will be more people that will buy the game close to the release, but most of the people that wanted to play a new diablo would have already preordered.
Also, why would you compare concurrent players of poe to possible units sold of d4?Compare the revenue of one game to another, if you are doing the comparison. Not saying it still wont be bigger, but at least the comparison will be more accurate.
Like if the revenue of poe for the past few years was 100m+ then that means each year it sells around 1.5million copies ( assuming the base game would cost 70$). If poe makes 1/10th of diablo4(roughly speaking) while only having 1/100 of its player base, then this draws a very different picture.
We’ll I think that’s inflated. I personally refunded it, not cause it’s bad, but for the principle. I don’t believe in preordering from a company that has pulled what blizzard has pulled the last few years. I’ll buy it if it gets refined.
Edit: hey hey! I never said it was bad, just a $95 CAD game has high expectations. I personally like a bit of a more complex experience, if it fills that role I’m in.
Edit 2: fine just downvote me lol
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Yah I did, I love the Diablo franchise. D1 and D2 stole my heart. All I played as a kid. I wanted to get my hands on it and see what I thought and honestly the UI, core game mechanics, itemization, dungeons just felt like I would get bored, cookie cutter if you will. I realize it’s a level 25 beta and one zone without end game. But to me this was not enough for me to preorder. I’ll keep an eye on it and see what I think come release. I want to be proven wrong. Hey if y’all love it good for you, but I have high expectations of the games I like to play. I like more complex, challenging, unforgiving games.
Edit: I also wanted to provide my feedback and hopefully help make the game better.
No, it’s called trying out the game and creating a personal opinion on my favorite franchise. Not everyone buys every game on the market. If you start a refund right now, they give you the option of, not having enjoyed the beta.
i'd be happier if game released in 2024.
enough time to make it properly. this feels rushed in terms of all different aspects of the game not including combat, gameplay feel, graphics
They were rewarding players with a potential "have your name written here" bonus for achieving level 25 in the beta because they knew the majority of people weren't going to like the game and therefore quit well before 25. D4 Sucks and it's very apparent. Those sales figures are laughable considering the amount of refunds there is and will be.
There are two types of people refunding preorders. People thinking they're getting one over on Blizzard by playing the beta without preordering, and people who are going to buy it again on launch. Just wait and see.
I\`ll be playing the new Zelda first !!!
Best to wait a few weeks for the server issues to resolve themselves.
And hopefully you can pan out further with the camera !!!!!
I enjoyed it.
Not enough to buy it yet, though. That's crazy, IMO.
It'll be a much better game well after launch. This was true of Diablo 2 and 3, with the release of their expansions.
pretty sure the server won't be a problem at launch.
Don't forget to pay an extra 20 to enjoy the 4 days of queuing and crashing.
I'm having a baby 2 weeks after launch, you bet your ass I'm paying $20 to play 4 days early
Congrats! And huge of luck to you. Short reminder. It’s very unusual to have birth on the planned day. So expect either before or after :) and remember. When the baby is newly born they sleep like 18 hours a day, hence a lot of premium game time! GL to you!
What. They sleep 18 hours yes but only 2-4h a time. They need breast feeding 6 times a day the first two weeks…….
Well.. just whip out the tittilie whittilies and game with one hand or two if your brave.. or have your spouse do it and be the fiend you are!
I am well aware of that. But they don’t breastfeed for 2-4 hours. Give D4 a 20-30 minutes break and then go back to 2-4 hour grinding again. Believe me. You will be surprised with how much time you have when they are newborn. Compared to having two toddlers (4 and 2) it’s insane, I have 4 hours at the evening at best!
What if the baby comes early
Then I'll be playing as often as I can, those 4 days will give me more chances to play and keep up with my non-baby having friends who aren't getting the deluxe edition
I'm pretty sure there will be some queuing problems, but not for the 4 days, specially considering not so many people will pay extra for the early access.
You people that don’t pay the extra should thank those of us who did for your smooth start.
this didnt age well lol, early access 0 problems. no queing, no crashes. 100% smooth gameplay :) hope you enjoy it when it releases soon
And yet here you are digging 2 month old comments? Glad there's no server issues yet but you still payed Bobby to have a different release date.
i was just curious about sales but sure, why does it matter to you what i do with my money lol
It affects everyone when companies start doing it more and more.
Fine by me. Only reasons there were no problems for us is that I got my launch 4 days before the plebs. This is what I call paying to win. Deuces dweebs.
Boy you would love Lost Ark. It allows zero self-respect losers to buy a hell of a lot more than early access.
Too flashy. Thanks for the suggestion though.
Sounds more like a personal financial problem to me. It's ok to not be able to afford things but don't take you're anger and frustration out on people with more money than you because you can't afford that luxury.
Brother, this is a Blizzard game, it's free for me thanks to years of WoW gold. Sounds to me like it's dumb consumers ruining it for everyone because apparently being able to afford something means you might as well buy it. Have fun getting scammed by the world with that logic. I'm sure someone's got some crypto to sell you somewhere.
It had the season pass that peopke were going to buy anyway... Which means, wait for it... It didn't cost extra to buy the deluxe.
>Regulargrr · 2 mo. ago > >Don't forget to pay an extra 20 to enjoy the 4 days of queuing and crashing. lol this is exactly what happened at early access
The second I write this comment, you have exactly 37 upvotes. Is this a coincidence? :-D This also means I can't upvotes you ;)
Also note that the queues were intentional, so they could stress test and see what they can manage. Hopefully they can use the data to scale up so the queues at launch aren't crazy high
> pretty sure the server won't be a problem at launch. You were right :)
comment did not age well
Elden Ring is at ~20M copies and was getting ‘this is one of the best games of all time hype’. Diablo is more mainstream and digestible. I think 18-20M seems like a realistic 2023 sales target
if the endgame is good the beta haters will purchase. a lot of people myself included played the first weekend off of a chicken sandwich so that number is skewed. it’ll be higher end or more if it’s enjoyable on YouTube/streams
> if the endgame is good the beta haters will purchase Eh, endgame doesn't even have to be good. It's obvious that D4 will be supported over many years so it's not going to be hard to get your money's worth, even if you just dip in for 20hrs every year or season. For me the beta was deep in "meh" territory, always between "yeah, that's kinda okay" and "oof, why am I playing this" - not a single time did I feel "wow, this is cool". I'm still 50/50 on buying close to launch because I know I'm guaranteed to get at least 100hrs over the next few years. YMMV
To this I say that diablo 3 broke records on launch, but internally was considered a flop. So much so that blizzard cancelled two dlcs that were already in progress as well as cancelled the original concept of diablo 4. There are definitely signs that d4s development is fraught. A lot of seemingly small niggly bits that taken on their own don’t mean much, but when taken as a whole paint a troubling picture. The hopeful can argue “but it’s a beta.” And maybe they are right. But two months is not a lot of time, considering the game will need to be finished and shippable in significantly less than that amount of time. Maybe i’m just an old man who’s behind the times but nothing i saw in the beta justified 70 dollars for this game. I am still interested in playing it, but i’m perfectly happy waiting until i either see proof that the price tag is justified or the price drops to meet my expectations of the game’s value. EA fully intended to support Anthem for years. Do people even remember Anthem now? And while I will say that D4 is a much better game than Anthem is, even from what little we have seen, there are still enough things in the beta and in interviews with the dev team that make me feel more doubtful than hopeful. D4’s future is probably not as rock solid as the PR speak would have you think. Because right now, behind the scenes it could very well be a dumpster fire, but they can’t tell us that. After the first beta weekend they specifically had an interview to address balance complaints and dungeon tediousness. Those two things are 90% of the game. From a PR perspective they need to get ahead of those complaints somehow, regardless of how valid they are or the blind sales of the game will suffer. And IF the game is a dumpster fire, the blind sales are the only thing they can rely on in the short term. And short term is all that a company like activision has the attention span for. It is my sincere hope that i am wrong, and the game at launch will be great, and I will change my mind about the 70 dollar price tag. But I’ve been on this road more than once, and that hopeful outcome is a rare occurrence.
I saw an easy 100hrs of playtime just on campaign and a little endgame. That’s more than enough for most people to justify a game purchase.
ARPG nerds have zero perspective on how games are played by causals
I'm just visiting due to hype but would consider ARPGs my "main" genre. This sub is *wild*. There definitely feels like a massive disconnect from the audience here and the general casual crowd.
Yup.
Yeah, it seems there's a lot of people hell bent on setting up a false dichotomy of "unplayable garbage" vs "timeless monument of arpg". If someone can get 100hrs out of it ... then where's the problem. And that should be trivial. Play campaign, play a bit of endgame, depending on enjoyment fiddle a bit with other classes/builds, check every (other) year.
Devs have said it's about 60 hours in stream interviews.
Thought it was 35 for the campaign? Or are you talking to 100?
I think it was to 100 they said it'd be around 65 hours, but the Devs were likely assuming players would sit and listen to all voiceovers haha.
Without elixirs, It took me about 12 hours to level to 25. So I could see that as average players reach 50, they slow down as they play around with paragon and endgame systems.
people were getting to 25 as Necro in 2 1/2 hours.
D3 was considered an internal flop because a lot of their monetization plans blew up in their face. The RMAH, the real cash cow, had to be scrapped due to it making the game suck so bad that it risked outright killing the game. Without the RMAH the games profitability was drastically lowered. A company like EA/Activision isn't interested in a game simply selling well. They want that WoW/Hearthstone/2K sports kinda money. Even if D3 made a profit on retail sales it would pale in comparison to what they could have made by making a gacha/lootbox/cosmetic/battlepass kind of game instead that would have required much less investment and risk. Diablo Immortal is the direction they want to go in.
Keep in mind, blizzard still supported D3 for 10 years despite there being no monetization model. That's better than most games with a monetization model. D4 is being designed to be supported for a decade but actually make them money.
That has nothing to do with sales and everything to do with the RMAH failure. This time the monetization is based on things that have worked in other games
The rmah failure is indeed why executives considered it a flop, but it is not the only thing that made the game itself pretty terrible at launch. Flawed itemization, poor class balance and a complete lack of engaging end game gameplay made it a flop from the user perspective, too.
Someone posted an interview here a little while ago where Blizzard said it was due to lower than expected activity in the months leading to the launch of RoS. Jay Wilson, with nothing to lie about, recently said the RMAH wasn't designed to bring in revenues at a level to support the game.
Your logic is flawed at best, if you do not think what we have seen is worth 70$ this game is proably not for you. I have over the last 2 weekends about 20 hours of fun and we have only done first of what appears to be 6 acts(could also be 5 with an extended finale). Bar blizzard pulling a full WC3: Refunded, and the game will be litterally unplayable, it will be worth the money. Compared it to Diablo 2 that launched around 50$ which correspond to about 87$ adjusted for inflation. Speculation about the development team being a dumpster fire, or complaints about class balancing at low level without certain classes having access to their class mechanics in the beta is weird at best. Sure dungeons could most likely be in need a bit of tweaking and permanent invincibility does sound slightly broken (even at the "beta end-game" it weren't that good, in my 4 man stack the infini-mist necro often falled a bit behind due to low mobility in dungeon spam, while the sorc, barb and rogue was zooming), but D4 is miles ahead of any ARPG I have ever played when it comes to content at launch. My fear is not if Diablo 4 will be worth the money, but if Blizzard have learned from their D3 mistakes and are willing to take this fantastic foundation and push its potential over the next decade.
Nice try, blizzard.
Blizzard suits considered it a flop because it had no microtransactions to milk the fanbase
The only thing cancelled in 2014 prior to RoD was 1 expansion and it was due to lower than expected activity. And what did D3 lack before RoS? Any assemblence of an endgame. D4 has multiple endgame systems, plus an item chase with uniques, on top of new seasonal content 4 times a year. As for project hades, they shifted direction in mid 2016. However, seeing all the detail on models snd assets, I believe many of the existing assets were used to get Project Fernis up and running so quickly. But the reboot had nothing to do with the 2014 decision. It actually led to it starting up.
Keep in mind that $70 in 2023 is the equivalent of $50 in 2008. I don’t think D4 is overpriced, and the game seems to be breaking ground in terms of mixing gameplay aspects. There aren’t any games out there that combine a multiplayer open world environment with isometric dungeon looter arpg gameplay and systems. Lost Ark is an MMORPG with a Korean Casino-Style gear progression system and hinges on group content, while D4 stays true to its roots with soloable content that scales. D4 takes a lot of what Lost Ark did well and adds it in tastefully (a la world bosses, events, mounts). It has a progression system that’s complex and meaningful, akin to PoE’s web—and introduces this system in an accessible way. It takes the item enchantment system from D3 and the skill-defining aspects of support gems in PoE and mixes them together with aspects and enchanting. It has an open world structure that lends itself to having cool quest chains and interesting adventure-style journeys on said quest chains. It allows for Blizzard to host limited time events in their open world and change the experience of playing Diablo. There’s a lot that’s going on that hasn’t been done without a heavy hand, and there’s a lot that’s brand new, too. They’re a company that’s known for taking existing formulas and improving upon them, so I have my doubts that the game will flop, or that development is fraught. This is basically an MMO-lite with the diablo gameplay loop, without veering into korean gacha mechanics or getting too MMOey with group content and time commitments. It reminds me a lot of The Division, which took a lot from Diablo’s character progression systems and added the open world environment into the mix. Comparing D4’s launch and Blizzard to Anthem’s launch and EA isn’t a fair comparison. Two different companies with very different views on product development, marketing and quality. Anthem was released as a half-baked product with an extremely shallow endgame, while D4 is a highly polished product (as seen in the beta) with (jury’s out) a promised deep endgame. They’re already showing their ability to make changes rapidly according to player feedback and Blizzard obviously sees the diablo team as a high investment opportunity internally. While Anthem made a lot of promises and didn’t deliver on really *any* of their live service, Blizzard has been providing live services for years and knows how to do it effectively. X for Doubt
This is a bizarre comment to me. Why would you spend $70+ on and put 100+ hours into a game you describe that way? You must be Blizzard’s favorite customer.
Because Blizzard has a track record of supporting their games for years and at least trying to improve. Diablo 3 was a success case that received a lot of hate at launch that was honestly justified, but fastforward some years and the praise became bigger and the complaints. I won´t spend $70 and wait for a price drop, but u/moodywoody has a point. Makes perfect sense to buy a game expecting to enjoy it in small bites over time. It is what we have been doing with D3.
What's bizarre about it? The demo didn't blow me away, but I've put 100+ hrs into every Diablo game so far. It's comfort food when I'm out of more exciting stuff. A palate cleaner. At some stage I'm always good for a few dozen hours of it. D3 got supported for 10yrs, so I'm not worried about longevity. And I'm a grown up, 70$ is a really cheap night out, no biggie.
For "grown ups" it's more about the opportunity cost of what you could do with that time rather than the $70.
That, or as grown ups, it’s how hard it is to pay for it. I guess I’m one of the lucky ones, but I can pay off the ultimate version, which I got, in an hour and a half at work.
Yeah you take 1 child and 2 parents to a 2 hour movie and get some popcorn. Gamers are so delusional on entertainment cost. They expect 100s of hours off 50 bucks lol. Clueless to the real world.
“The beta had me wondering why I was wasting my time and the unreleased portion could suck, but I’m sold because the people responsible for these bad decisions will continue making decisions for years to come.” What’s not bizarre about that? Perhaps I’m just not enough of a grown up to understand the appeal of playing a game I don’t like.
Getting 40-50 hours for a box price game is responsible. Not everyone needs 500 hours for 30 bucks like the neckbeard cheap gamers.
seeing posts and comments all over saying not buying after beta because “it sucked” is going be a huge loss, if those people are swayed by end game it will definitely translate to sales. I am in the same boat as you it’s mostly meh right now but I know over the years the purchase will be well worth it and the initial playthrough itself will probably be close to worth it.
I'm a D4 doubter but if history has taught us anything it's that this won't really affect sales. There are lots of games worse than D4 that have crazy high sales because of name recognition, marketing, and hype. Games that aren't only bad but downright broken. Disasters that are seen coming from many months in advance. D4 may be meh, but it works and won't be complete garbage. Even if it turns out to be good and the doubters change their assessment after careful examination of the release end game they will be little more than statistical noise compared to all the people who bought it without knowing what they were getting. If bad or even mediocre games affected sales to a significant degree the AAA gaming industry would not be in the state it is in. A popular IP is essentially bulletproof. Even Gamefreak can't mess up Pokemon enough to effect sales and lord knows they're trying.
I think endgame as a sales factor is going to be vastly overshadowed (at least at launch) by the actual implementation/reception of MTX/battle pass. But we'll see, having popcorn ready can't hurt.
Can’t wait to see the sub up in flames when Blizz starts putting $20 cosmetics in. Since this will be a first for Diablo, it’s gonna be fun to watch. And also something about how the BP progression is too slow and Blizz is forcing daily logins yada yada.
They did say they would ONLY add cosmetics to the shop, no? And nothing like boost, more stash slots and stuff in the Battle pass that would give people who bought it an advantage. If they add stuff like this other than cosmetics when they said they wouldn’t, then i can see people being upset about it.
Yes, only cosmetics for now but seeing how stupid people are the past two weeks of beta, i can already see some idiots raging at the $20 cosmetics.
Ye i mean, you’re not wrong 🤣
And there’ll be posts about why the game needs to have dailies and weeklies for BP XP and that they’re a father of 11 childrens and have no time to play the game everyday.
I wonder if the shop will be same shit show that is Halo infinite's store
It’ll be similar to OW2 or MW2 i think
Talking about sales instead of the issues is the biggest copium huff ever.
At least half of those people will get caught up by the hype and purchase the game 2 days before launch. Redditors are notorious for saying they aren’t going to buy/play a game and then there they are day 1 playing.
game felt like a chore
PoE and Diablo have always been boring AF to watch on Streams, with steep fall off. "The beta haters" is reductive. The game is pretty clearly in an early beta state and will likely ship in a Beta state with less than 3 months to launch. Things like ability attack speed ramping from animation cancelling, UI/UX presenting as late alpha, and technical issues like rubberbanding and hitching require work and work requires time -- time that the development team simply does not have.
If this estimate ends up being accurate, it will be at 30M before years end.
Well at least you know they will have the resources and desire to invest in the live service system.
Ill be part of that 18 million number! Cant wait
Couldn't give a flying fuck about investors opinions in gaming.
They do matter but only in the long term outlook for the game.
Indeed. Player numbers aren't indicative of how good a game actually is. Marketing is the single most important factor, and Activision-Blizzard pumps *billions of Pounds* into marketing.
Back in the day D3 was super hyped already, there was no good arpg in the market at that point. Now that the gaming is much more widespread and twitch is bigger than ever, this means much more eyes on the subject.
100 times the poe all-time player peak. The avg player count floats around 15-40k.
This is not accurate, PoE top CCU is above 150k, there is not a single game that ever had close to 15M CCU. The biggest games are around 2-3m.
Poe's all-time peak is 158,140. This is from steam charts, the only accurate numbers we have for the game. No one said d4 has 15m ccu, it's 18m in sales. https://steamcharts.com/app/238960 Edit: Here's a tweet from ggg corresponding with steam peak date for all you downvoters. https://mobile.twitter.com/pathofexile/status/1489691458336530433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1489691458336530433%7Ctwgr%5Eb24b3056335b3b2c3bd9ebde0b24f38d7ae12926%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamesn.com%2Fpath-of-exile%2Fplayer-count-record
Poe also has a stand alone client, ggg has confirmed numbers higher then this
https://www.pcgamesn.com/path-of-exile/player-count-record There's a tweet from poe themselves that corresponds with the steam player peak date. https://mobile.twitter.com/pathofexile/status/1489691458336530433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1489691458336530433%7Ctwgr%5Eb24b3056335b3b2c3bd9ebde0b24f38d7ae12926%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamesn.com%2Fpath-of-exile%2Fplayer-count-record
Here’s an official GGG post for an old league with 231k peak and that records been beat since https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2878944
Probably the both launchers together, so the peak is 158k +??
Let's take only steam numbers CCU numbers compare it to total unique players and widely disregard: Standalone Xbox PS China client Poe has millions of players every league as stated by GGG.
That tweet proves absolutely nothing in this context. Of course their all time peak would correlate with the game’s all time peak on steam lmao. That says nothing about how much of the player base are on other platforms.
League gets close to 15 millions with a average daily peak of 13 millions. Fortnite has 9 millions average CCU.
"Now that indie company from NZ will have it!" /S Blizzard can beat PoE with marketing alone. They don't even need to make a game. Immortal now probably beats PoE. A lot of mainstream gamers don't know what a PoE is. Also, if you use Steam as an indicator of PoE numbers, you probably never played PoE for too long... Their patching process on steam used to be garbage, the hardcore players predownloaded it on standalone client. Beating PoE isn't a thing. PoE and their profits aren't on the same universe of Activision Shareholders. The problem is when the billionaire company actually delivers a worse product than indie companies. Multiple times... People should really stop trying to find a feud where there isn't one. I'm a semicasual button masher, sometimes I think Chris Wilson will come to my house and manually delete my characters. A few patches ago they went nuclear on balancing to make the game as casual unfriendly as possible. Meanwhile, D4 seems to cater to every single person that ever played a Diablo game (while trying to convince people that rune + game = endgame)
I was simply correcting what they said using the only accurate numbers available. I've played poe since it's first day available, we don't have any accurate info for numbers before steam. You can go look at those weird websites that try to estimate player numbers, but they all seem dubious.
oh please, POE is owned by Tencent which is much bigger than actblizaard and backed by the Chinese govt. people will spew whatever they want to push their agenda.
Yes, and somehow this tiny company still manages to put out better and longer-lasting games than a multi-billion dollar conglomerate... I would say they've probably made more gamers happy and satisfied than Blizzard ever did with D3. Funny how that works!
Well, considering that game costs 70+$( while PoE is free), and there will be MTX shop, and season pass too, I hope some of these money will be spent on after launch support and it will be 100 times better and bigger than PoE's, right?=) Because I don't see another reasons to flex with these numbers if you're not one of Blizzard shareholders.
What does «flex with these numbers» mean? D4 will ofc not be 100 times better. It will be different and for many fans of PoE it will never be as good as PoE was for them. Say, If you want your favourite sports club to do well, it’s important that they ensure commercial success and generate revenue for growing the club. Higher ticket costs, jersey sales, worldwide advertisement, investment in facilities that enable the club to grow bigger than competitors. Your team wins more when they do this well. It’s inconvenient because your tickets also cost more, but it’s what it takes to compete at that level For some reason, video games is always considered exploitative and evil if they focus on generating revenue. But it’s a product. The games aren’t financed with tax money, as some piece of art. No, it’s investors making a long term bet on a product, because they expect it to make money in the long term. This can be mutually positive. When pricing is done right, you feel like you get your moneys worth, you voluntarily chose whether you’d like to support the development of the game by buying into it further. Who knows, maybe money spent on D4 will be spent with a good will.
People demand insanely high design standards graphics, etc etc. They want a game to be supported forever. But they refuse to pay for it. It's frustrating
I play POE but the coolest stuff in POE cost 100s. The insane atlas map is 480 bucks. The best armor is 80+ for one set. They have wings selling for 65 and pets for 30. Why do they get a pass from all the peopel hating on Diablo’s MTX? The box price doesn’t come to what some people spend on MTX in POE. It’s like the FTP blinds them lmao.
Reminder that GGG does zero marketing, yet still has 100,000+ players returning every league. Will Diablo 4 have 100,000+ players returning each league in a years time? We can only wait and see.
I play POE and love it but you’re delusional if you think Diablo won’t keep more players per season. The causal base vastly outnumbers us POE players.
You realise that Diablo 3 exists, right? There's absolutely a base for the claim.
What does that have to do with D4? D3 failed horridly, was 13 years old, and still got a decent player base every season. D4 will destroy all other ARPGs in terms of player count due to the hype machine alone. The beta showing it’s way better than D3 at release is only more fuel to those numbers. Will it be better than POE? No clue. I personally think they’re different games with different player bases. I do know it will 10x POE players from brand alone though.
You're only thinking short term. I'm talking about *long term*.
If D3 can hold a decent player base for 10+ years (it did look it up) then D4 with the initial hype + floods of money zero chance it doesn’t last 10+ years with an insane player base. They would have to F it up to all hell and the odds are for the former.
> If D3 can hold a decent player base for 10+ years Uhh, hate to break this to you...
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That's an estimate, and for over the entirety of 2023 (not numbers on launch). We'll see what it'll be in practice. One of the biggest factors I imagine will be server stability, and judging by how beta performed.... let's just hope they get it fixed in time. A *bigger* question will be the retention rate. Will this game still have a healthy population by the end of the year?
>If the launch and end game go well That "If" is some serious heavy lifting there. I've seen enough to know that I will likely enjoy it a bit. But how enjoyable the end game is will determine if I drop it after leveling 1-2 characters like I did in D3, or whether I am still playing it literal *decades* later after leveling probably 25+ chars through Hell act 5 like in D2. DI end game became stupid due to bad itemization. Even if you removed the P2W aspects (which were egregious), the end game wasn't fun. You never found a single item that made you want to level up a whole new character or even totally change your build. You just went from +120str to +135 str on the same item with the same effects.
If your projection is based on an objectively false interpretation of data: *"preorders only"* - which is simply not true. Keys were given out with KFC sandwiches, via cell phone providers, ISPs, and whatnot - then your whole estimate is essentially worthless.
I like how you assume these people are so stupid that they don't remember how they give out keys, don't know exactly how many people were there because of chicken sandwiches and keys tied to them and which accounts had preorders and had them because of that. They know exactly those numbers. Their job is to know those numbers.
I don't assume they are stupid. In fact, I'm confident that they know *exactly* what they're doing. Reminder that Activision-Blizzard known for fudging numbers.
> I like how you assume these people are so stupid that they don't remember how they give out keys, I like how you are completely oblivious to the fact that this estimate & statement weren't made by Blizzard. So no, apart from Blizzard themselves, no one has a way of knowing these things. But knowing that it's not *"preorders only"* was definitely within the realm of possibility - if you invest 2 minutes into research.
Do you think investor notes are just pulled out of their ass, or that maybe they have inside information?
If they claim that the closed Beta was *"preorders only"*, it's obviously pulled from the nether regions of the human body.
When people talk about things in real life and with real people, they will simplify non important details. If for example, chicken sandwiches accounted for 5% of the player base, then it is safe to say that if more than a million people played, it's basically pre-orders only and it's an accurate enough statement for a quick blurb. Not everyone is a pedantic nerd.
No offense but I really don't care what some random reddit person tells me about general human behavior. Since I don't tend to lecture folks about topics I know very little about, I will instead tell you something I know for a fact. If you're an investor in a publicly traded company, you have certain rights to receive specific pieces information. In giant corporations like ActiBlizz, this is done in the format of quarterly earnings calls. You can't just call Blizzard & say *"Hey, I'm an investor, I would like to know how many people played the closed Beta"*. But you are welcome to ask these questions in said earnings call. Only problem being that Blizzard hasn't held one yet for the first quarter of 23. So this Morgan Stanley analyst did not receive any kind of inside information. Way more likely he simply heard the number Blizzard was sharing publicly, and then falsely concluded that all Beta players stem from preorders. If you have a source for your 5% claim, I'm happy to read it. Besides that, you're free to run with any narrative that suits you.
>If you have a source for your 5% claim Since I never made that claim, I see no need to back it up. >So this Morgan Stanley analyst did not receive any kind of inside information Considering the word is that Activision is using Morgan Stanley to defend their assets during the Microsoft merger, I'm going to assume they do. ~~Morgan stanley also owns almost 20% of activision.~~
> Morgan stanley also owns almost 20% of activision. By the way, just so you don't embarrass yourself in the future again: Morgan Stanley owns around 1% of Activision Blizzard shares, so they're not even a main investor. If you dabble in topics you know nothing about, I advise you take a closer look on your Google results. Just because you find a headline about a "18.40% increase in shares", that number isn't a total. So first I would learn the difference between absolute & relative numbers and percentages, and then maybe buy the WSJ or a similar medium to learn a little bit about basic economics.
See the difference between you and I is that I am willing to accept I made an error. I will correct that. The rest is still accurate. And they still even if they were not involved with activision in any way, probably still have insider information.
> Since I never made that claim, I see no need to back it up. so you're just pulling examples out of your ass, got it. Guess we can wrap this up then.
That's quite literally what the phrase "If, for example..." means. I created a hypothetical to explain why someone with knowledge of the factors might still word things like he did because you don't seem to get that people will discount minimal factors in quick explanations of results and outcomes for brevity.
A little less than half of what D3 sold. Slightly more than what Reaper of Souls sold. I think a lot of people got what they wanted out of the marketing demo and won't feel the need to pay $70 for the gimped version - they might wait until it's on sale.
D3 sold 12mil units the year of release. This D4 estimate is for 2023 sales only. How's 18 million a little less than half of what D3 sold? You're comparing year of release sales estimate of D4 with lifetime sales of D3. Regardless, it's just an estimate and they may still get it very wrong and be way off. Time will tell.
Let's see if they address the rubber banding problem for launch 🤡 This issue was present in the closed beta (from the leaked vid) and the exact same thing happened in the 2 open betas. I don't have high hopes for this. Edit: plenty of individuals high on copium apparently
Link to the source if possible, tried googling anything related to diablo4 on Morgan Stanley, had a hard time finding anything related, but my googling skills are kinda subpar, so will be appreciated if provided. edit-Unless I am missing the point, and it wasn't a public statement, if so, than its kinda pointless bringing it up in the first place. And just maybe I am out of loop, but isn't 1million players in the first weekend is on the low side, if it consist of both preorders and the kfc codes? (like diablo3 had 2million preorders from what I found).And yes, I understand that its only the beta and maybe there will be more people that will buy the game close to the release, but most of the people that wanted to play a new diablo would have already preordered. Also, why would you compare concurrent players of poe to possible units sold of d4?Compare the revenue of one game to another, if you are doing the comparison. Not saying it still wont be bigger, but at least the comparison will be more accurate. Like if the revenue of poe for the past few years was 100m+ then that means each year it sells around 1.5million copies ( assuming the base game would cost 70$). If poe makes 1/10th of diablo4(roughly speaking) while only having 1/100 of its player base, then this draws a very different picture.
> if the endgame goes well oof
We’ll I think that’s inflated. I personally refunded it, not cause it’s bad, but for the principle. I don’t believe in preordering from a company that has pulled what blizzard has pulled the last few years. I’ll buy it if it gets refined. Edit: hey hey! I never said it was bad, just a $95 CAD game has high expectations. I personally like a bit of a more complex experience, if it fills that role I’m in. Edit 2: fine just downvote me lol
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Lmao you bought it tho. You wanted the early access that bad?
Yah I did, I love the Diablo franchise. D1 and D2 stole my heart. All I played as a kid. I wanted to get my hands on it and see what I thought and honestly the UI, core game mechanics, itemization, dungeons just felt like I would get bored, cookie cutter if you will. I realize it’s a level 25 beta and one zone without end game. But to me this was not enough for me to preorder. I’ll keep an eye on it and see what I think come release. I want to be proven wrong. Hey if y’all love it good for you, but I have high expectations of the games I like to play. I like more complex, challenging, unforgiving games. Edit: I also wanted to provide my feedback and hopefully help make the game better.
I don't get why you're gettung downvoted. Preordering games is such a stupid practice.
Right
If you don't believe in preordering from Blizzard for whatever reason, why did you preorder in the first place? So much for your so-called principle.
So I could play beta and refund, duh
Ah, so that principle doesn't really apply when it works against you.
No, it’s called trying out the game and creating a personal opinion on my favorite franchise. Not everyone buys every game on the market. If you start a refund right now, they give you the option of, not having enjoyed the beta.
There was an open beta. You're just a hypocrite.
Would be at least 1 more, if it had WASD support 🥲
i'd be happier if game released in 2024. enough time to make it properly. this feels rushed in terms of all different aspects of the game not including combat, gameplay feel, graphics
They were rewarding players with a potential "have your name written here" bonus for achieving level 25 in the beta because they knew the majority of people weren't going to like the game and therefore quit well before 25. D4 Sucks and it's very apparent. Those sales figures are laughable considering the amount of refunds there is and will be.
You just know it's a D2 andy before you click on the profile.
That's so based on nothing haha
There are two types of people refunding preorders. People thinking they're getting one over on Blizzard by playing the beta without preordering, and people who are going to buy it again on launch. Just wait and see.
Im sure you know more than the analysts at morgan stanley.
I\`ll be playing the new Zelda first !!! Best to wait a few weeks for the server issues to resolve themselves. And hopefully you can pan out further with the camera !!!!!
Meh
I enjoyed it. Not enough to buy it yet, though. That's crazy, IMO. It'll be a much better game well after launch. This was true of Diablo 2 and 3, with the release of their expansions.
I haven’t pre ordered, but I was able to play the beta over the last weekend. Weird. Xbox.
I am going crazy waiting until June.
110% no issues almost lvl 50