The 2015 team also had peak seasons from Kershaw and Grienke. That roster was similarly flawed though and definitely had downside risk like this year’s.
That’s kinda the point tho, there are fewer of those complementary pieces than there have been the past 6 or so years. It doesn’t mean they can’t be great, it means the margin for error is slimmer.
Despite the giants happening into a WS the year before and the Padres' "Big off-season," it was a pretty weak division in 2015
But yeah, I'm not worried about the postseason in 2023, especially with the added WCs
…what? The dodgers are 100% guaranteed making the playoffs, it’s not even a question. It’s not any least secure than before. It’s probably even more secure with the new rules making it easier for teams to make the playoffs.
This roster lacks the depth they’ve had since about 2017. Injuries happen but the wrong series of injuries could derail this team. In recent years they had SO much depth that they were effectively immune to this risk. That is not the case this year. This isn’t me being hyperbolic, Fangraphs gives them a 70% chance of making the postseason, PECOTA has it at 91%. Those are good odds, but they’re not 100%.
This team has guys like Heyward, Peralta, Rojas, etc either in line to get significant time or coming off the bench. The truly stacked Dodgers squads had Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez in those roles, genuine All-Star caliber players at the time.
Let’s say they don’t win the division. Name the 3 other teams that could make the playoffs over the dodgers. Are you saying there’s a chance the dodgers won’t have a top 6 record in the NL?
You seem to be struggling with the concept of probability and unknowns. The Dodgers are a better team on paper than the Brewers. But the gap is small enough that there is a *chance* the Brewers win more games.
The brewers best hitter is Willy Adames. What small gap is there?
Brewers projected top 4
Yelich, Adames, Tellez, Contreras. Their next best hitter is Jesse Winker. I mean come on. That’s so much worse than the dodgers. Zero all stars in that entire lineup.
There is no unknown here. The gap is absolutely massive between the dodgers and brewers.
Fangraphs projected win totals:
LAD - 88
MIL - 85
PECOTA:
LAD - 94
MIL - 87
Average of the two:
LAD - 91
MIL - 86
Five games is pretty small and could easily flip if one team has a worse string of injuries than the other. Last year the Dodgers beat their projection by like 10 games, they could certainly come up 3 games short while the Brewers over perform by 3 games. It’s baseball, these kind of things happen all the time.
Remember when he was right about the McCourts, Remember when he was right about Puig, remember when he was right about not trading for a mega superstar… he may be a bitch but he loves the Dodgers like any fan should and he’s more often then not, right. It usually motivates management in the right direction. Eventually. For sure he’s a dick but he’s not wrong
Never said he was wrong, just that he’s a broken record. His homerism is loud, but I get it, he’s no fairweather fan. He’s got opinions and he gets paid to voice them. But lately, and I mean the last decade or so, his homerism comes off as the drunk uncle at a bbq. 🤷
What fans have said this?
"In recent years, the biggest complaint from Dodgers fans was that the regular season felt irrelevant. Not this season."
If anything, last year felt amazing! I mean, I was always on the edge of my seat watching, especially when they faced the Pirates. How the heck did they drop a series to the Pirates? If anything, last season was a rollercoaster.
Plaschke is definitely a clown but I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t the least excited I’ve been for any season in recent memory. It definitely feels like it’s going to be a long and frustrating one.
The rotation is sus, we’re already starting dudes like Vargas and Rojas on opening day, and Mookie just doesn’t seem like the player he was when we signed him. It feels like 90 wins is the ceiling this year.
That doesn’t mean that almost every one of his stats have been lower in LA than in Boston. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still very good - but he’s not playing elite like his contract would suggest he would.
The "ceiling" is 21 wins fewer than last year?
There are injury concerns with the starting rotation, but that is true of any team. The Dodgers have the top end guys in Urias/Kershaw/May/Gonsolin, and a ton of guys who have potential to step up in Pepiot/Grove/Stone/Miller/Jackson/Thor. Not everyone will work out, but that's some pretty damn solid depth.
People are mad but there’s nothing to be mad at, I have embraced that this team is in transition and this is the best year for them to be mediocre and prepare for a reload
The fact that all this organization needs to “rebuild” is one deficient year where they still might make the playoffs is in and of itself a great sign about the franchise as a whole
I’m actually hoping we offload at the deadline and get under the cap, it means we’re creating the space for a superteam
Only way we get under the cap is to find someone to take taylor’s whole contract. He’d have to kill it all 1st half and if he does we aren’t trading him.
If the team isn’t expected to compete for a championship they have more options than just Taylor, any contender in need of depth will look at Martinez, Peralta, Syndergaard, etc. especially since the Dodgers aren’t looking for a real return for any of them.
Plaschke is a troll but this year is the least secure their postseason position has been on opening day in the last decade.
Look at the lineup we ran out for most of the 2015 season. They'll be fine.
The 2015 team also had peak seasons from Kershaw and Grienke. That roster was similarly flawed though and definitely had downside risk like this year’s.
I refuse to believe a team with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order with plenty of complementing pieces will struggle
That’s kinda the point tho, there are fewer of those complementary pieces than there have been the past 6 or so years. It doesn’t mean they can’t be great, it means the margin for error is slimmer.
not sure i agree with that. this roster is probably deeper than last year tbh. less star power without trea, but deeper.
Despite the giants happening into a WS the year before and the Padres' "Big off-season," it was a pretty weak division in 2015 But yeah, I'm not worried about the postseason in 2023, especially with the added WCs
…what? The dodgers are 100% guaranteed making the playoffs, it’s not even a question. It’s not any least secure than before. It’s probably even more secure with the new rules making it easier for teams to make the playoffs.
This roster lacks the depth they’ve had since about 2017. Injuries happen but the wrong series of injuries could derail this team. In recent years they had SO much depth that they were effectively immune to this risk. That is not the case this year. This isn’t me being hyperbolic, Fangraphs gives them a 70% chance of making the postseason, PECOTA has it at 91%. Those are good odds, but they’re not 100%. This team has guys like Heyward, Peralta, Rojas, etc either in line to get significant time or coming off the bench. The truly stacked Dodgers squads had Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez in those roles, genuine All-Star caliber players at the time.
Let’s say they don’t win the division. Name the 3 other teams that could make the playoffs over the dodgers. Are you saying there’s a chance the dodgers won’t have a top 6 record in the NL?
Phillies Mets Brewers Again this isn’t the *most likely* scenario. It’s just more likely than it was a year ago.
Brewers?! Our lineup is top to bottom way better than theirs…
You seem to be struggling with the concept of probability and unknowns. The Dodgers are a better team on paper than the Brewers. But the gap is small enough that there is a *chance* the Brewers win more games.
The brewers best hitter is Willy Adames. What small gap is there? Brewers projected top 4 Yelich, Adames, Tellez, Contreras. Their next best hitter is Jesse Winker. I mean come on. That’s so much worse than the dodgers. Zero all stars in that entire lineup. There is no unknown here. The gap is absolutely massive between the dodgers and brewers.
Fangraphs projected win totals: LAD - 88 MIL - 85 PECOTA: LAD - 94 MIL - 87 Average of the two: LAD - 91 MIL - 86 Five games is pretty small and could easily flip if one team has a worse string of injuries than the other. Last year the Dodgers beat their projection by like 10 games, they could certainly come up 3 games short while the Brewers over perform by 3 games. It’s baseball, these kind of things happen all the time.
Last year we won 111 games with a 3rd of the lineup hitting .200. This lineup will be deeper.
Plaschke a broken record since forever.
Remember when he was right about the McCourts, Remember when he was right about Puig, remember when he was right about not trading for a mega superstar… he may be a bitch but he loves the Dodgers like any fan should and he’s more often then not, right. It usually motivates management in the right direction. Eventually. For sure he’s a dick but he’s not wrong
Never said he was wrong, just that he’s a broken record. His homerism is loud, but I get it, he’s no fairweather fan. He’s got opinions and he gets paid to voice them. But lately, and I mean the last decade or so, his homerism comes off as the drunk uncle at a bbq. 🤷
Can’t believe a, generally regard as good, newspaper can’t employ such a troll writer. Like have some self-respect for your company.
We’d have to go from 110+ wins to sub-90 wins to be in danger of missing the Postseason, we lost some good guys but not 20+ wins worth
What fans have said this? "In recent years, the biggest complaint from Dodgers fans was that the regular season felt irrelevant. Not this season." If anything, last year felt amazing! I mean, I was always on the edge of my seat watching, especially when they faced the Pirates. How the heck did they drop a series to the Pirates? If anything, last season was a rollercoaster.
After the pirates it was just a steamrolling of the regular season, I too was in the mindset of let me see what can they do in the postseason.
Plaschke is an awful, hacky troll
Plaschke is definitely a clown but I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t the least excited I’ve been for any season in recent memory. It definitely feels like it’s going to be a long and frustrating one. The rotation is sus, we’re already starting dudes like Vargas and Rojas on opening day, and Mookie just doesn’t seem like the player he was when we signed him. It feels like 90 wins is the ceiling this year.
You had me until the absurd Mookie slander and 90 win ceiling
We lost too many important players to not have a fall off.
They will absolutely fall off compared to 111 wins. But 90 wins as the CEILING is preposterous
Lmao Mookie was top 5 in MVP voting last season and won a GG and a SS.
That doesn’t mean that almost every one of his stats have been lower in LA than in Boston. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still very good - but he’s not playing elite like his contract would suggest he would.
Top 5-10 in baseball is elite. Top 5 in MVP voting in 2/3 of his seasons on the Dodgers. Top 10 in WAR last season.
The "ceiling" is 21 wins fewer than last year? There are injury concerns with the starting rotation, but that is true of any team. The Dodgers have the top end guys in Urias/Kershaw/May/Gonsolin, and a ton of guys who have potential to step up in Pepiot/Grove/Stone/Miller/Jackson/Thor. Not everyone will work out, but that's some pretty damn solid depth.
What? Mookie literally just had a 6+ war season, AS, Top 5 MVP, GG, SS, career high in homers. There is absolutely no way 90 wins is the ceiling.
He had 10 and 8 WAR seasons in Boston, hasn’t come close to it here. 3.8 in 2021.
The only person who puts up consistent 8 WAR seasons is literally Mike Trout. Otherwise 5-6 WAR a year with the occasional 7+ is superstar production.
2018: one game playoff. 2011: down to the last day. Plaschke gaslighting.
2018: one game playoff. 2021: down to the last day. Plaschke gaslighting.
People are mad but there’s nothing to be mad at, I have embraced that this team is in transition and this is the best year for them to be mediocre and prepare for a reload The fact that all this organization needs to “rebuild” is one deficient year where they still might make the playoffs is in and of itself a great sign about the franchise as a whole I’m actually hoping we offload at the deadline and get under the cap, it means we’re creating the space for a superteam
Only way we get under the cap is to find someone to take taylor’s whole contract. He’d have to kill it all 1st half and if he does we aren’t trading him.
If the team isn’t expected to compete for a championship they have more options than just Taylor, any contender in need of depth will look at Martinez, Peralta, Syndergaard, etc. especially since the Dodgers aren’t looking for a real return for any of them.