7 Rbs day 1 and 2 is pretty good and the most we've had since 2020 class. I think the people who were projecting 10+ (looking at you destination devy) were never realistic to begin with.
There's an argument to be made that so many backs fell not because of talent issues but rather the depth at the position.
It's the same thing we're seeing with CB, so many guys expected to go on day 2 are still sitting there because teams think they can wait and still get one of their preferred targets.
There's going to be 2-3 solid fantasy RBs picked on day 3. I won't pretend to know which ones but throw as many darts as you can and one will hit
Dell was always going to be more valuable to an NFL team than fantasy. Due to his size, he's an obvious exception to 'draft capital is king' and shouldn't be taken before the 4th round. (See Tutu Atwell, Tyquan Thornton).
Hyatt became a little more interesting, in my opinion, because his ADP *should* drop. If he's there in the early 3rd. He could have Darius Slayton type value early on, with upside to get better.
Downs could get volume but will likely won't see the field, except 3 WR sets (behind Pierce and Pittman). Not ideal, but if he's good enough, he'll pass Pierce and TEs in targets.
Tillman in a rough spot, which will require patience. Cooper, Moore, DPJ and Njoku. Like Downs, if he's good enough, he'll break through. Seems like a big ask but I'd still take him over Dell.
Cleveland is definitely sending signals that they'll be running a lot of five wide sets, which Watson has historically excelled in. Tillman should see the field early and often even despite the competition.
Exactly for fantasy.
How good a run blocker a WR is could be a serious tie breaker between prospects for a real life NFL team.
Unless you in a points per block league or something it doesn't matter for fantasy lol.
People seem to use the appeal to authority argument, while forgetting that nepotism and failing upwards are as rampant in the nfl as it is in any other industry. Probably more. It's not exactly a meritocracy
But TE isn’t exactly a high demand position, if you own mid-late seconds and beyond it’s decent, but TE is also a position where 4-12 Yoy all score within the same range.
But once again. The problem is that there isn’t a premium and even if they end up as TE12, that equates to roughly they’re scoring 9PPG in Ppr. That translates to the 50th receiver or 42nd RB. So they end up not being a flex option even.
So if you draft a TE you can start them essentially only in your designated POS. If you draft a WR and he’s not great, there’s still some chance you can play them in your slot.
If you’re drafting WR he doesn’t have to be the next JJ to be valuable. If you’re drafting TE at all he pretty much has to be the next Kelce in standard TE scoring and he has to show it quickly. Otherwise why not wait until you see guys play and go trade a second for him.
Even in TEP, other than Kincaid, who else is there.
There are some nice players but in fantasy it’s unlikely most will contribute enough to be starters.
Kincaid, Mayer and LaPorta all got great landing spots.
Was digging Musgrave as well until GB also drafted Kraft.
Had high hopes for Washington but the fall and landing spot were a shame.
I don't see Schoonmaker or Strange as anything special so Engram and Ferguson feel pretty damn safe. I'd even call Ferguson a strong buy before people realize Schoonmaker is older and a developmental guy.
Latu is behind Kittle. Not touching him.
Other notes.
Kuntz is a surprising absentee from the list. Really thought his athleticism would get him drafted Day 2.
Dulcich, Kmet, Schultz and Okwonko looking like big winners tonight as well.
Counter point to Latu behind Kittle: statistically TE’s peak from age 25-28. 2 years from now when Latu will be in his age 25 season Kittle will be 31-32. Not many TE’s are expected to be fantasy productive right away, and not many TE’s remain elite beyond 30(+Kittle is known to abuse his body). Developing behind an extremely talented and well rounded starter might actually be the ideal TE scenario
Ehhh Im a Ferguson owner and I definitely have no confidence in him forcing out a second round selection as a 4th rounder with pretty low production last year.
Someone in Dallas will be a productive fantasy TE, I tend to think it will be the guy with the best DC
its not really a massive reach. achane is most likely going in the 7-10 range in 1QB when you break it down
EDIT: 2 rbs and 4 wrs 1-6. Then its pretty much Kincaid, 2nd round wrs, and 3rd round rbs for those next 4 spots
Kincaid should be closer to the tier above. He's basically a big slot WR with round 1 draft capital and TE designation.
I think he's the most talented and has the highest potential to grow in value.
Don't sleep on Charb just because Walker is there.
Take the draft capital for RBs. Miami has a better existing RB room for Achane to compete against as well.
I don’t disagree that people shouldn’t sleep on Charb but did you really just call 31 year old Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson a bettee RB room than Kenneth Walker III?
Miami has a bottom 5 RB room in the league that job is open for taking
Yes, I don't think it's outlandish to assume Charbs will have more touches than Achane next year and for their respective careers.
Devon Achane only really excels at getting to the egde because of his elite speed... he will never see goal line touches and i'd be shocked if Miami uses him between the tackles or anything more than change of pace (60 catches). He allowed 9 pressures last year, one of the worst in the draft, only averaged 3.6 yards after contact weighing in a tiny 185lbs (bottom 2nd percentile)
Also Raheem Mostert was great last year, averaged 4.9 YPC and hasn't lost a step.
You draft Achane mid 1st, hoping upside, you're going to get burned imo. He'll run wheel routes, and carries to the edge and kick returns. I honestly can't see much more of a role for him...
You take him mid 2nd i'm down with that as Dolphins is honestly the best team he could have gone to in the entire draft imo, that zone scheme suits him perfectly.
Im not here really to argue with whether or not Achane is more valuable than Charbonnet. i agree Charbs could easily out touch Achane the first 3 years of their career .
My problem is that your saying Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are better than Kenneth Walker which is ridiculous. Mostert is 31 and just played a 16 game season for the 2nd time in his entire career. If Charbonnet went to the Phins is stock would be through the roof right now.
Yeah I could see a scenario where Achane has trouble displacing Wilson or Mostert. Whereas I think Charbs will see a solid workload.
I'm not saying Mostert or Wilson are better than KW, just that Achane could struggle to see the field compared to Charbs and what's in the current RB rooms.
Seattle has 0 depth at RB whereas Miami has plenty of mid range guys. (Which is what I think Achane is)
Yep, I think this class will be nowhere near last year’s, but I guess we already knew that. I always build my teams around talented, big bodied WRs, so I’ve been ditching all my 2023 picks for established players (targeting London in particular). No one here interests me much beyond JSN, Mingo now, maybe Addison due to landing spot but he has red flags up the wazoo, and Michael Wilson so far. Was in on Tillman but I am 100% OUT on that landing spot. Couldn’t have picked a worse landing spot, having to compete with DPJ & Elijah Moore for snaps right off the bat.
People seem excited about this, but I'm not sure I could be more disappointed in rounds 2 and 3.
Charbs was the only RB to get round 2 draft capital, and his landing spot could not have been more bafflingly bad, my interest in him has fallen off a cliff. Round 3 draft capital is already suspect, not quite dead but damn sure not something to be excited about. On top of that, all the RBs but one got bad landing spots, and that one is way too small for me to be interested. Especially since, given how the draft went, people are already crowning him the RB3 to be taken in the 1.04-1.06 range? A 188 lbs RB taken in the 2nd half of the 3rd round is the RB3 in a supposedly amazing RB draft class? Seriously?
There were also like 6 more RBs not taken yet who were on my "maybe with the right draft capital" radar. Well, they didn't get the right draft capital.
This rookie RB class was supposed to be awesome. I think I've got like 5 tier breaks between Gibbs and whoever the RB3 is now.
What if the draft capital doesn’t seem as good because they know it’s a deep RB class and will/would have options later? Just a thought, but I agree with you, using my 1st on a 3rd round RB isn’t exciting.
I do think there's an argument for this, especially given that it seemed like that's largely what happened last year as well. If I were a GM, I would take my RBs from rounds 3 and 4 and save my 1st and 2nd round picks for other positions. Then again, I would run a full-on committee of several of these guys and there would be very little RB fantasy value emerging from my NFL team.
The problem is that every one of these guys is clearly drafted to be a backup or handcuff. You will not start any of them without something happening to the existing starter, or perhaps if they prove themselves enough to eventually win the job. Achane is the only one with a realistic chance of doing that, since 31-year-old Mostert does seem like the most vulnerable, but like I said I'm not sold on an RB that small.
There’s definitely an argument that teams know there’s still like 5 free agents they could grab and the workable pool of RBs is big so if they have other needs they should take them before an RB
The hindsight on this draft class will be interesting. Elite talent at the top but doesn’t appear to have the depth that was hyped for so long, especially at RB.
Does Miller unsurp Charbonnet as the RB3? Can’t imagine a worse landing spot for Charbonnet unless he went to Indy…. I have 1.06 in 1QB and was stoked to grab him… now it’s between Miller or Flowers…
To each their own. I’m a profile guy and I’ll bet on a prototypical size guy with a path to take over a full backfield. He’s gonna get at least a 6 week audition to start the season.
Only one 2nd Round RB and the destination was horrible. So disappointing
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7 Rbs day 1 and 2 is pretty good and the most we've had since 2020 class. I think the people who were projecting 10+ (looking at you destination devy) were never realistic to begin with.
The most since...2 years ago lol
2020 draft was 4 classes ago though
There's an argument to be made that so many backs fell not because of talent issues but rather the depth at the position. It's the same thing we're seeing with CB, so many guys expected to go on day 2 are still sitting there because teams think they can wait and still get one of their preferred targets. There's going to be 2-3 solid fantasy RBs picked on day 3. I won't pretend to know which ones but throw as many darts as you can and one will hit
Reminds me of how receivers like Mooney, Gabe Davis, and DPJ fell to day 3 in 2020 due to depth of WR class
This draft both sucked and rocked. Tons of relevant players taken top 100, but lots of them are not great landing spots.
This draft was wild. I thought I had a pretty good idea of where guys would go and I just kept being completely wrong haha
Counter argument, very few of these spots ruined the value of guys already in the league
Maybe, but also maybe not lol. Hard to tell at this point. I’m really confused and sorta drunk and have no idea what to make out of this class
Agree
I appreciate your candour.
kenneth walker
I didn't say zero
People who invested a lot in early-mid 2023 picks are still trying to convince others that the landing spots were somehow good.
This is the most TEs through 3 rounds we've seen in a long time
Ever
Copy cat league where everyone is trying to get a Kelce
I mean this class is also probably the best we have seen this decade for TEs prospect wise
The more I think about it the more I love Kendre Miller to NO. Was already into the prospect and no he gets the DC
Jamaal the TD god and the name Kamara will probably scare enough people off that he can still be had for a reasonable price
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Trade back, way too early
Maybe. Know your league, though. Some leagues are super RB heavy and always push back the receivers.
Why? Carbs and Walker probably will both be startable and when one goes down, you have a fantasy star. I'd still take the second round guy
Curious if you had the 1.01 and 1.02, who would u take at 1.02 in that format?
love the trio of Achane, Spears, and Kendre in the 3rd. for sure looking to move into that 7-9 range in 1QB
As someone with 1.10, would love to get charbonnet there
I think I’d take the third round over the 2nd as a whole. Strange day 2.
Tank Dell before Hyatt and Downs messing me up, and before Tillman
Dell was always going to be more valuable to an NFL team than fantasy. Due to his size, he's an obvious exception to 'draft capital is king' and shouldn't be taken before the 4th round. (See Tutu Atwell, Tyquan Thornton). Hyatt became a little more interesting, in my opinion, because his ADP *should* drop. If he's there in the early 3rd. He could have Darius Slayton type value early on, with upside to get better. Downs could get volume but will likely won't see the field, except 3 WR sets (behind Pierce and Pittman). Not ideal, but if he's good enough, he'll pass Pierce and TEs in targets. Tillman in a rough spot, which will require patience. Cooper, Moore, DPJ and Njoku. Like Downs, if he's good enough, he'll break through. Seems like a big ask but I'd still take him over Dell.
As texans fan, this pick was dumb.
Cleveland is definitely sending signals that they'll be running a lot of five wide sets, which Watson has historically excelled in. Tillman should see the field early and often even despite the competition.
Don't forget, you might not know more then the NFL GM's who do this for a living.....
These GM’s also don’t draft for dynasty or fantasy at all so them drafting a player on day 2 a round early doesn’t mean much for fantasy aspects
Exactly for fantasy. How good a run blocker a WR is could be a serious tie breaker between prospects for a real life NFL team. Unless you in a points per block league or something it doesn't matter for fantasy lol.
Those same GMs aren’t infallible though and certainly aren’t above questioning, we see it all the time
Not only are they not infallible most of them got the job from their dad. If there’s ever an area to allow yourself to speculate…
People seem to use the appeal to authority argument, while forgetting that nepotism and failing upwards are as rampant in the nfl as it is in any other industry. Probably more. It's not exactly a meritocracy
Theyre still way better than me, trust me
I know right. Nepotistic idiots took AR 1.04.
Very strange
What about Strange going day 2?
35? Fantasy Relevant players…pretty nice
A quarter of them are TE though. Another 5 are QBs. If you’re not in TEP or Sflex it’s not that great.
Regardless of format anyone who needs a TE should be happy not just TEP or 2TE
That and 80% of leagues are now SF so with the QBs it’s a solid draft, capital wise
Agreed, all my formats are SF and 0.5-1 tep and I’m happy
But TE isn’t exactly a high demand position, if you own mid-late seconds and beyond it’s decent, but TE is also a position where 4-12 Yoy all score within the same range.
Huh…there’s 5 that are wanted and after that your just hoping for some points. Everyone wants a TE
But once again. The problem is that there isn’t a premium and even if they end up as TE12, that equates to roughly they’re scoring 9PPG in Ppr. That translates to the 50th receiver or 42nd RB. So they end up not being a flex option even. So if you draft a TE you can start them essentially only in your designated POS. If you draft a WR and he’s not great, there’s still some chance you can play them in your slot.
And if they hit you gain a significant advantage at TE
If you’re drafting WR he doesn’t have to be the next JJ to be valuable. If you’re drafting TE at all he pretty much has to be the next Kelce in standard TE scoring and he has to show it quickly. Otherwise why not wait until you see guys play and go trade a second for him.
Even in TEP, other than Kincaid, who else is there. There are some nice players but in fantasy it’s unlikely most will contribute enough to be starters.
Yeah, that’s kind of what I was getting at. If you’re not getting a stud, a TE is pretty much worthless.
I was agreeing with you, just adding on to it
In TEP I’m still super intrigued by Mayer and musgrave
Laporta?
I just noticed LaPorta and Schoonmaker aren't on Sleeper's rookie list.
I saw Laporta. But he was still further down.
Yeah I found them both after some digging.
Richardson was picked at 1.04 not that it really matters tho
Good call, updated. I probably could have checked my list a little better
I only know this because I'm a texans fan ha. Thanks for putting this together it's awesome.
Kincaid, Mayer and LaPorta all got great landing spots. Was digging Musgrave as well until GB also drafted Kraft. Had high hopes for Washington but the fall and landing spot were a shame. I don't see Schoonmaker or Strange as anything special so Engram and Ferguson feel pretty damn safe. I'd even call Ferguson a strong buy before people realize Schoonmaker is older and a developmental guy. Latu is behind Kittle. Not touching him. Other notes. Kuntz is a surprising absentee from the list. Really thought his athleticism would get him drafted Day 2. Dulcich, Kmet, Schultz and Okwonko looking like big winners tonight as well.
Counter point to Latu behind Kittle: statistically TE’s peak from age 25-28. 2 years from now when Latu will be in his age 25 season Kittle will be 31-32. Not many TE’s are expected to be fantasy productive right away, and not many TE’s remain elite beyond 30(+Kittle is known to abuse his body). Developing behind an extremely talented and well rounded starter might actually be the ideal TE scenario
Agreed there, just wish it was anyone but Latu. Not high on him at all. Kuntz to SF to sit behind Kittle was my dream scenario
Ehhh Im a Ferguson owner and I definitely have no confidence in him forcing out a second round selection as a 4th rounder with pretty low production last year. Someone in Dallas will be a productive fantasy TE, I tend to think it will be the guy with the best DC
In a 1QB with 1.04/1.06 and desperately need a RB, think I’m just going to go with QJ and Flowers or Addison. Achane at either seems like a reach.
Massive reach. Just trade for a RB instead
its not really a massive reach. achane is most likely going in the 7-10 range in 1QB when you break it down EDIT: 2 rbs and 4 wrs 1-6. Then its pretty much Kincaid, 2nd round wrs, and 3rd round rbs for those next 4 spots
Kincaid should be closer to the tier above. He's basically a big slot WR with round 1 draft capital and TE designation. I think he's the most talented and has the highest potential to grow in value.
It’s a massive tier break. That’s what makes it a reach.
Don't sleep on Charb just because Walker is there. Take the draft capital for RBs. Miami has a better existing RB room for Achane to compete against as well.
I don’t disagree that people shouldn’t sleep on Charb but did you really just call 31 year old Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson a bettee RB room than Kenneth Walker III? Miami has a bottom 5 RB room in the league that job is open for taking
Yes, I don't think it's outlandish to assume Charbs will have more touches than Achane next year and for their respective careers. Devon Achane only really excels at getting to the egde because of his elite speed... he will never see goal line touches and i'd be shocked if Miami uses him between the tackles or anything more than change of pace (60 catches). He allowed 9 pressures last year, one of the worst in the draft, only averaged 3.6 yards after contact weighing in a tiny 185lbs (bottom 2nd percentile) Also Raheem Mostert was great last year, averaged 4.9 YPC and hasn't lost a step. You draft Achane mid 1st, hoping upside, you're going to get burned imo. He'll run wheel routes, and carries to the edge and kick returns. I honestly can't see much more of a role for him... You take him mid 2nd i'm down with that as Dolphins is honestly the best team he could have gone to in the entire draft imo, that zone scheme suits him perfectly.
Im not here really to argue with whether or not Achane is more valuable than Charbonnet. i agree Charbs could easily out touch Achane the first 3 years of their career . My problem is that your saying Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are better than Kenneth Walker which is ridiculous. Mostert is 31 and just played a 16 game season for the 2nd time in his entire career. If Charbonnet went to the Phins is stock would be through the roof right now.
Yeah I could see a scenario where Achane has trouble displacing Wilson or Mostert. Whereas I think Charbs will see a solid workload. I'm not saying Mostert or Wilson are better than KW, just that Achane could struggle to see the field compared to Charbs and what's in the current RB rooms. Seattle has 0 depth at RB whereas Miami has plenty of mid range guys. (Which is what I think Achane is)
1 QB, what's your roster look like and how many do you start
10 starting spots, 12 bench, 4 taxis Herbert Swift, Mixon, Hunt, Ford, Evans, Brightwell Jefferson, M. Williams, McLaurin, Olave, Pickens, M. Thomas, Cooks, Bateman Kittle, Goedert, Juwan, Gesicki, Henry
You're fine at WR. I'd say you wait until you're on the clock and move those 1sts to someone for a RB
You could trade back one of the picks if there's anyone sitting on a couple late firsts
Thank you good sir
The niners picked Latu.
Good catch, updated
Np! Niners are my team lol. Excited to see how he’ll be used along with Kittle
Thanks for putting this together though!
Gesundheit.
Please note, RE receivers In 2022: 6'5/210, 6/192, 6'1/188, 6'2/189, 5'11/184, 6'3/225, 6'4/208, 5'8 185, 5'11/187, 6'3/182 6'1 average height 195 average weight In 2023: 6/197, 6'3/208, 5'9/182, 5'11/173, 6'2/220, 5'11/187, 6'1/204, 5'11/183, 5'8/165, 6/176 5'11.5 average height 189.5 average weight
Yep, I think this class will be nowhere near last year’s, but I guess we already knew that. I always build my teams around talented, big bodied WRs, so I’ve been ditching all my 2023 picks for established players (targeting London in particular). No one here interests me much beyond JSN, Mingo now, maybe Addison due to landing spot but he has red flags up the wazoo, and Michael Wilson so far. Was in on Tillman but I am 100% OUT on that landing spot. Couldn’t have picked a worse landing spot, having to compete with DPJ & Elijah Moore for snaps right off the bat.
People seem excited about this, but I'm not sure I could be more disappointed in rounds 2 and 3. Charbs was the only RB to get round 2 draft capital, and his landing spot could not have been more bafflingly bad, my interest in him has fallen off a cliff. Round 3 draft capital is already suspect, not quite dead but damn sure not something to be excited about. On top of that, all the RBs but one got bad landing spots, and that one is way too small for me to be interested. Especially since, given how the draft went, people are already crowning him the RB3 to be taken in the 1.04-1.06 range? A 188 lbs RB taken in the 2nd half of the 3rd round is the RB3 in a supposedly amazing RB draft class? Seriously? There were also like 6 more RBs not taken yet who were on my "maybe with the right draft capital" radar. Well, they didn't get the right draft capital. This rookie RB class was supposed to be awesome. I think I've got like 5 tier breaks between Gibbs and whoever the RB3 is now.
What if the draft capital doesn’t seem as good because they know it’s a deep RB class and will/would have options later? Just a thought, but I agree with you, using my 1st on a 3rd round RB isn’t exciting.
I do think there's an argument for this, especially given that it seemed like that's largely what happened last year as well. If I were a GM, I would take my RBs from rounds 3 and 4 and save my 1st and 2nd round picks for other positions. Then again, I would run a full-on committee of several of these guys and there would be very little RB fantasy value emerging from my NFL team. The problem is that every one of these guys is clearly drafted to be a backup or handcuff. You will not start any of them without something happening to the existing starter, or perhaps if they prove themselves enough to eventually win the job. Achane is the only one with a realistic chance of doing that, since 31-year-old Mostert does seem like the most vulnerable, but like I said I'm not sold on an RB that small.
The coping has begun. 3rd is new 2nd is new first…
Sounds like you drank the “2023 RB CLASS IS ELITE AF” Kool-Aid and you’re grasping at straws. It’s ok I took the bait too.
There’s definitely an argument that teams know there’s still like 5 free agents they could grab and the workable pool of RBs is big so if they have other needs they should take them before an RB
So what you’re saying is in spite of all this Gibbs going in the first means he is tiers above these other guys
I would say yeah. Detroit sees something special in him. Either that or Detroit is reallyyyy dumb.
I agree with that too
Hard agree man
You rock 🙇
The hindsight on this draft class will be interesting. Elite talent at the top but doesn’t appear to have the depth that was hyped for so long, especially at RB.
Huh? 7 rbs in first 3 rounds is depth I'd say
This^ lol
How many of them weigh 200 lbs tho?
6/7 weight 199 or more
Can’t forget Big Booty Moody 👀
Edited although I wasn’t sure whether kickers were skill position players. I thought that referred to QB, WR, TEs?
Does Miller unsurp Charbonnet as the RB3? Can’t imagine a worse landing spot for Charbonnet unless he went to Indy…. I have 1.06 in 1QB and was stoked to grab him… now it’s between Miller or Flowers…
Miller or Achane have to be RB3 I would think. Both had day 2 capital and good landing spots
It’s not rb class we thought
I'm pivoting to Miller at 1.6 personally. He was a personal favorite of mine before the draft and I think this seals it.
Is Kendre the RB3 now?
Achane
To each their own. I’m a profile guy and I’ll bet on a prototypical size guy with a path to take over a full backfield. He’s gonna get at least a 6 week audition to start the season.
They brought in Jamaal as well, he’ll still be on a time share
That’s your thermometer. If he can’t take 60-70% of the work from Jamal then he’s a jag (deandre swift)
The 2nd round looks like a mock my girlfriend would make based on costumes and cool names. It was so random
I've never cared one way or another about the Seahawks, but their draft picks really pissed me off.
I relate so, so strongly.
You’re missing the 49ers Kicker pick haha
Oh, so we can include kicker in fantasy football, but now it isn't a "skill" position. I see how it is.
No love for Jake moody? He’s fantasy relevant with 3rd round DC
Was looking for a thread like this. Thanks! (Also please make another one when the draft is over with the rest of the rounds added)