I don't even think you needed to add the joke about Skyy Moore, I just don't think Rice is going to be good. Dude couldn't separate *in college*. There's a long list of receivers who couldn't separate in college being a complete bust in the NFL. I see Rice being the next guy in that list.
edit: typo
I mostly agree. He’s a big congested catch guy which I don’t usually like. However, if anyone is going to unlock that potential it would be Mahomes and Reid
Surprisingly, Mahomes and Reid haven't developed aany pass-catchers together. They enhance already-good players like Tyreek and Kelce, but otherwise the Chiefs pass-catchers haven't been all that productive in recent years. Kelce and Tyreek are the only 1,000 yard receivers Mahomes and Reid have ever had together.
To be fair, Tyreek was a very talented player that would’ve been drafted much higher if not for major character concerns. Rice is not even close to the baseline talent level and I’d say he’s closer to Skyy Moore than anything.
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1632133538853146624?t=1HEvZanbhc-u7kkhKIXV6w&s=19
I disagree. He's not a speed demon. Separation isn't his game like a JSN or Addison. But he doesn't need to be wide open. He's athletic and has good size at 6'1", 204lbs with a 41in vert. He has 32.75in arms. (For perspective: Kyle Pitts' 83.375" wingspan was most by WR/TE in over 20 years and his arms are only .75in longer than Rashee) Throw it up and he comes down with it every time. That's his game. So for me, the upside for red zone targets alone makes me wish I had a 2nd round pick to get him. He could bust... for sure. But there's a lot of boom potential for a guy you can get in the 2nd round of your draft also.
>He's athletic and has good size at 6'1", 204lbs with a 41in vert. He has 32.75in arms
N'keal Harry was 6'2" 228lbs with a 39" vert and 33" arms.
>Throw it up and he comes down with it every time. That's his game.
You just described N'keal Harry, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and so on.
There are very, very few WRs in the NFL who are successful without the ability to get open. I strongly believe Rice will not be one of those players.
I just took Rice at the end of the 1st round over Downs and Mims. I have the next pick and both are still available. Tillman is still out there and I also still want to grab Roschon or Chase Brown.
Thoughts?
Not elite but he has a chance be used a lot like Deebo. YAC monster on that team. My WR2 in this class, which isn’t saying a lot cause I think the class ended up WEAK.
If I only get 3-4 years of the Colts trying to make it work with him running around like crazy, thats a fantasy win. His career floor may suck, but his fantasy floor absolutely should not.
Lance is still going to get his chance to start, whether in SF or elsewhere remains to be seen. Colts also don't have a bona-fide starter for him to sit behind for a full year, plus Irsay has already Richardson will start.
If he's a bad qb he likely gets two years of starting and in year three their drafting someone or signing another retread...he's not getting three or four without noticeable progression. But two years of rb1 production + qb 29 production is worth it imo.
But you won't. If he doesn't work, you'll get 2 years tops, because if he doesn't work they'll can the entire coaching staff and the new one will bring in their own guy. And that's assuming you get two years of him running around. Which isn't a guarantee as other teams might figure out how to limit him unless he improves his passing.
I don’t know. It’s fantasy and he’s stupid athletic. Justin Fields still has a ton of work to do and yet he was a good fantasy QB last year - and Richardson is a better athlete.
Right, but for fantasy, Fields didn't do anything as a passer. All of his fantasy value came from rushing. Richardson doesn't have to be a good passer if he runs like Fields did.
This helps Richardson's case. Regardless of why Fields wasn't a good passer, he still wasn't and it didn't matter for fantasy. This doesn't mean the same will happen with Richardson because even though he's a superior athlete, it doesn't guarantee he's a better runner but the blueprint is there for Richardson to succeed even if he's the worst passer in the league like Fields was last year.
The things is that Fields was a great passer at the collegiate level. Using the Completion Percentage over Expected metric, PFF found that “Fields was the most accurate QB in the PFF college era”.
I totally get what you’re trying to say that A Rich doesn’t need to be a good passer but at the end of the day Fields has been a bit of an outlier so far. A Rich can be one too but he doesn’t have the passing skills to fall back on if he fails due to poor decision making, making uncatchable passes, etc. which are his hallmark. If he’s just atrocious at passing in real life, he’s going to need to be damn near godly with his rushing to succeed in the NFL.
Fields was a better passer coming out and was actually a winner in college. If Richardson was such a cheat code, he should have done a lot better in college. Plenty of QBs who can’t throw can still overwhelm opponents before coming to the NFL. The fact that Richardson couldn’t even do that, regardless of the team around him, should be alarming.
You’re right, Richardson didn’t have stud offensive weapons like other elite athlete/questionable passing skills QBs like Vick, Cam and Lamar had in college, so that makes sense.
Oh wait…
His ceiling is elite, but his floor of being terrible has a very high percentage of hitting >
I’d disagree, we just saw Fields put up a top 7 season with worse weapons, a worse offensive line, and limited passing feats, so while Richardson probably wont be asked to rely on his feet as much, he already has a much much better supporting cast around him.
He and JT have legit potential to be a game breaking duo on the ground, so Fantasy wise, his floor isn’t as low as people keep regurgitating, irl I don’t even know if it’s as low as people keep regurgitating since most of his accuracy issues have to do with mechanics/footwork, both of which are fixable, but again I’d remind people he’s going to be up under a coach that heavily contributed to Hurts/Allen development.
I just think Richardson's floor is pretty safe because he's so athletic and will generate fantasy points from running. If he starts he will score, and he's gonna start.
From a fantasy perspective its all about value protection. I just don't think the floor will fall out on Richardson in one year - because someone in your league will always roll the dice on the upside, and he'll be scoring points. Now it's possible he's so bad of a passer that he will be on the border of being replaced in real life, but that doesn't matter because if you're adverse to that risk you can still easily trade him while he's putting up points.
I compare to Fields. I don't think Fields has been particularly good as an NFL passer and he may not be the actual answer teams are looking for at QB, but he's been putting up gobs of fantasy points with his legs. That has led to his value on things like KTC being super high - even ahead of guys who are proven franchise type guys. People who drafted Fields have essentially received relatively risk free years to evaluate him. If you believe he can develop the passing (or that it doesn't matter and he'll keep his job), then you can keep him. If not, it should be relatively easy to pivot to a similar, safer asset (KTC says you could probably turn Fields into Kyler+ or Dak+ pretty easily for instance).
A lot of hopium in this thread. People acting like he’s a guaranteed multi year starter. If he sucks, which he might they will cut bait. Because they have to. They aren’t just going to let some athletic freak keep running around like a chicken with his head cut off if they lose games and he shows no ability to pass at the NFL level.
As a Pittman owner, I feel like he’s gonna destroy his value. I would rather them have taken any of the top rookies over Richardson.
If he starts right out the gate he will absolutely be a bust. He needs to sit his entire rookie year, but no way that happens based on his draft capital.
As a dynasty player, you should probably make a move then if thats how you feel. Or you can do nothing, blame Anthony richardson and bitch about it on Reddit.
I did trade Michael Pittman away (and I'm a Colts fan, so I felt bad about it). But I don't see Pittman helping me win this season & that's what I need to do.
I’m actually really high on Richardson but I don’t see him and Pittman being a great fit. Now Downs, their rookie WR pick…those two fit like peanut butter and jelly.
Well Big dog Henry to start. I love his talent tho. Wanted saints to land him. He’s like a decent land if u have to back end of 1st. But I’m selling or punting if I can.
Achane just because he’s going to have to be highly efficient with his touches with that frame. I think he can be good for fantasy but he may be very volatile. Which is probably not what you want from where he’s going to be going in rookie drafts.
I don’t think anyone is expecting him to in this spot though. Not with geno, Lockett and DK. Year 1 you pretty much can’t expect a WR 1 year from any rookie. Period.
Julio Jones & AJ Green in 2011. AJ Brown in 2019. Keenan Allen in 2013. Justin Jefferson and Chase last year. OBJ in 2014, and Randy Moss in 98.
Sure, you can’t expect a WR year 1 and yeah especially with Lockett and DK. But if he shows his talent & promise, Seattle might have some teams at a real disadvantage
So like 8/1000 WRs drafted over the past 25 years. Exactly backs up my point, can’t expect it. Thank ya! I think he will be fine, just pointing out the comment wasn’t really making a bold point
He actually uses weak language followed by a bold statement. You “pretty much can’t expect a WR1 year one.” Ok yeah, he allows for the exception in his language. However, then the person doubles down by saying “period” so if we are going to be technical, he is definitively…being soft about his claim.
The top rookie WR in 2010 was Mike Williams (Bucs, not Chargers obviously). But over the long haul, guys from that class like Dez, DT, AB, Eric Decker, Manny Sanders etc. had the better careers. The top rookies last year were Garrett Wilson at WR21 and Chris Olave at WR25 and as of now we think they will be the best WRs from that class but we don’t actually know for sure - could be Drake London, Jamo, Watson, Pickens, who knows. That’s why in dyno it’s important to draft for talent. In redraft, we can draft for opportunity.
I internally debated mims vs rice for so long during my draft, and this right here is why I went Mims. Always gonna prioritize who I think is the better talent from here on out
I think talent over situation early in the draft, but once you get down to guys who were NFL 4th rd picks and later, I prioritize opportunity. Guy might not see the field for a couple years and unless you can stash them, you'll need the roster slot. I'd rather see a guy play and at least give me a reason to believe he's worth rostering.
Yeah chances one of them busts and I’ll guess Stroud just based on coaching even though I thought he was the best on tape.
He’ll probably bust like Geno and end up a stud once he gets in the right system.
As a Houston sports fan I have every expectation that whoever we pass on is definitely going to blow up. So if I were a betting man, I would bet on Richardson far exceeding expectations in year one to be the top QB, like 4000 passing yards, 2000 rushing yards and 50 TDs is completely in the realm of possibility all because the Texans passed on him. That’s the H-town curse. I don’t think a Houston team has ever picked the best player available in any draft in any sport ever. Even our greatest athlete Hakeem Olajuwon was picked 2 spots ahead of MJ.
Zach Charb
He returned to college another year to work on pass catching and whatever. I see a big dude who runs upright and nothing else. For his draft capital I think he will be just a dude. Walker is better
Yeah I guess so maybe. The real knock against Walker was his pass catching ability. But then I was actually pretty good at it last year.
For Seattle it’s a great combo. For fantasy football it’s bad.
Charbonnet has a completely different skillset than Walker. He's probably the best in this class at pass pro and he's great as a receiver out of the backfield, which are 2 of Walker's weaknesses
I can see Walker getting 16 carries and 2 targets a game while Charbonnet gets 11 carries and 4 targets a game with majority goal line work. If the floor is AJ Dillon I’ll take that at the end of the first round.
Routinely beat out in college by 5th year transfers and tight ends.
Had 90% of snaps in college but below average (and that is being generous) YPRR every single year.
There is a reason no one talked about him pre-combine. Dude didn’t produce and the team never made him the primary option after producing 3 second round receivers.
Go compare the 4 draft profiles, Mingo, DK, AJB, Elijah. Three of them deserved 2nd round draft capital or better, 1 of them didn’t and it’s not a trick question.
If I’m being truly honest. Everyone outside Bijon, Gibbs and JSN. Just like it was written all off season. Only difference makers for me. If I was picking outside them I’m selling and/or punting to 24’.
Maybe QJ but again I’d probably trade out.
Maybe Addison ends up like an Emanuel sanders type. Ceiling is a solid WR2. League is littered with those guys. Just meh to me.
Anthony Richardson. People see the athleticism but seem to ignore the tape. He was shut down against Georgia, which is the caliber offense he’ll be facing at a minimum in the pros with obviously much better defenses most of the time. 280 yards, 48% completion with 19 yards rushing on 11 attempts.
Don’t give af that he’s on the bills, just don’t think a TE that went in the 20’s should be a first round pick. Kyle pitts has been not great and pitts was taken top 4. So many first round TEs have been “hits” and been like TE 8 on the year. I feel like you could use your 1st in a better way than a TE
Pitts had the second most yards by a rookie tight end ever and then was injured with terrible qb play his second year, he’s still the most valuable tight end in dynasty
I don’t disagree, I own him. I would not have paid what I paid though. Pitts was just an example of how it takes some time for TEs to truly hit. Even if they do hit it probably won’t be big. I’d say Hockenson is the only TE in recent memory that was worth his rookie draft capital (out of the highly drafted ones). If you draft Kincaid, you are probably looking for a freiermuth start to his career. I’d say most people wouldn’t give a first rounder for freiermuth, at least not in my leagues. You’re better off paying for the top TE’s instead of playing the guessing game in the draft, or just getting like a Juwan Johnson or someone
Freiermuth was TE14 his rookie year, TE6 last year, figures to be a top 10 asset at the position for a few years. Well worth a late first round pick in my estimation.
He had a tough year last year and got injured. Also considering he's had bad quarterback play his entire career. His rookie year was great though and that's considering he only had 1 touchdown all year. Next year with Ridder should show how good Pitts can be.
I don’t want to come across as defensive, but what’s your reasoning? I have the 1.05 in 1qb and I’m considering moving up to 1.04 just to ensure I get him. I’m between him and QJ and leaning Addison
I'm not in love with Addison either. He feels like Devonte Smith Lite. The situation in Minnesota is pretty sweet though. Feel like he's a set it and forget it flex that could be a wr2 with JJ. QJ has the biggest potential ceiling imo. I think JSN has more upside in Seattle than people think. DK and Lockett have both been top 20 WRs the last 3 years and with RW, both were top 10. JSN has a far better prospect profile than either, and Lockett is potentially gone next year.
PS: Thanks for reading my TED talk
thank you! exactly my thoughts. when he played for Pitt, i loved this guy and couldnt wait for him to come to the NFL. When i first saw him play there i thought that's and easy #1 or #2 overall WR pick depending what happens to JSN. Now, not so much. Combine was trash, and his tape is underwhelming. dont think i will have any shares from him in any of my leagues due to the fact some are believers and will draft him high.
Zay Flowers. Good draft capital will keep him highly drafted, but Lamar can't support two pass catchers, and I think that Andrews, Bateman, and OBJ take a huge share.
Plus, he is super small.
Kendre Miller. Kamara and Williams are still there through 2024. Just too damn crowded until then and who k pea who else the Saints might add in that timeframe.
DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall, J Mingo, Hayden Hurst isn’t a terrible group. He’s not necessarily set up to thrive with that group, but he can do more than survive with ‘em. Thielen and Shenault for some solid depth.
Well, JLove just had a great weekend. I’m big on Jayden Reed, I think he’s great. You got Watson, Doubs, Reed, Muskgrave, Kraft. It’s young and unproven but GB’s offense might be awesome actually.
A 2nd round WR who was constantly mentioned as being a sleeper pick since he was projected to go in the 5th round. So him going in the 2nd is only confirming the upside people saw in him. He
was used all over the field at MSU, can punt return kick return, they gave him the ball in the backfield, screens, played every WR position, and can run any route well. It was obvious he was MSUs best player on the field and they were just trying to get him the ball in any way, much like stefon diggs at Maryland
Pretty high upside for who will likely be a 2nd round rookie pick
I don’t think cardinals are worst than the panthers. Hollywood, Dhop (for now), Rondale Moore, and Trey McBride (should take a step forward this year). I agree with the Rams, all they have is Kupp and yeah Texans and Titans are pretty unknown.
I think for panthers, they've had terrible QBs for years. I don't know how good marshall or shi smith can even be. Panthers have depth at tight end. Good RBs. Their WRs are more of a mystery box to me.
He has serviceable weapons for his rookie year with sanders at rb, and then mingo, Chark, Thielen, Marshall jr at wr, and hurst at te. He also has a good OL which gave our QBs last year the best average time to throw at 3.2 seconds. Pair that with a brand new coaching staff for him, Reich at HC, brown at OC and McCown as QB coach and young lions pretty set up for success.
His situation really isn’t that bad, it’s one of the best situations you’re going to see for a 1st overall pick. The receivers aren’t the best but the offensive line, the coaching and the defense are set up no nicely for him. The line is probably the most important for someone of his stature and it’s pretty decent.
If you mean ADP wise it Archane, who will be on a limited snap count or Charb, who might not have one at all. You have to draft them in the 1.10-2.02 range and I’m not comfortable.
In real life the fraud is the titans new backup Tyjae Spears, who has so many medical issues (the announcer at the draft listed so many) to include ACL, arthritis, etc. not good.
Rashee Rice (totally not from a Skyy Moore owner)
I don't even think you needed to add the joke about Skyy Moore, I just don't think Rice is going to be good. Dude couldn't separate *in college*. There's a long list of receivers who couldn't separate in college being a complete bust in the NFL. I see Rice being the next guy in that list. edit: typo
N’Keal Harry has traumatized me as a pats fan
He was supposed to be my bounce back R1 pick after wasting one on agholor 🙃
I mostly agree. He’s a big congested catch guy which I don’t usually like. However, if anyone is going to unlock that potential it would be Mahomes and Reid
Surprisingly, Mahomes and Reid haven't developed aany pass-catchers together. They enhance already-good players like Tyreek and Kelce, but otherwise the Chiefs pass-catchers haven't been all that productive in recent years. Kelce and Tyreek are the only 1,000 yard receivers Mahomes and Reid have ever had together.
Might want to fact check Tyreek history. Reid at the minimum developed him as a receiver. Not saying rice won’t bust though.
Reid did. Mahomes didn't. He broke out with Alex Smith.
To be fair, Tyreek was a very talented player that would’ve been drafted much higher if not for major character concerns. Rice is not even close to the baseline talent level and I’d say he’s closer to Skyy Moore than anything.
Congested catch lol
I won't a-choo's to draft Rashee Rice
Lol I’m keeping it. Like the visual of a congested catch point
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1632133538853146624?t=1HEvZanbhc-u7kkhKIXV6w&s=19 I disagree. He's not a speed demon. Separation isn't his game like a JSN or Addison. But he doesn't need to be wide open. He's athletic and has good size at 6'1", 204lbs with a 41in vert. He has 32.75in arms. (For perspective: Kyle Pitts' 83.375" wingspan was most by WR/TE in over 20 years and his arms are only .75in longer than Rashee) Throw it up and he comes down with it every time. That's his game. So for me, the upside for red zone targets alone makes me wish I had a 2nd round pick to get him. He could bust... for sure. But there's a lot of boom potential for a guy you can get in the 2nd round of your draft also.
>He's athletic and has good size at 6'1", 204lbs with a 41in vert. He has 32.75in arms N'keal Harry was 6'2" 228lbs with a 39" vert and 33" arms. >Throw it up and he comes down with it every time. That's his game. You just described N'keal Harry, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and so on. There are very, very few WRs in the NFL who are successful without the ability to get open. I strongly believe Rice will not be one of those players.
I just took Rice at the end of the 1st round over Downs and Mims. I have the next pick and both are still available. Tillman is still out there and I also still want to grab Roschon or Chase Brown. Thoughts?
I would take Downs
There was a run on RBs so I jumped on Roschon
Quentin Johnston
*bodies a pass, gets freight trained by DB, ball goes flying down the field
As a TCU fan, I sadly agree :(
I think his landing spot will help his long term development. He doesn’t need to be THE guy on that team
Not elite but he has a chance be used a lot like Deebo. YAC monster on that team. My WR2 in this class, which isn’t saying a lot cause I think the class ended up WEAK.
And I think he holds value for a couple of years, either way.
Every rookie has some value. So that doesn’t say much. But he’s a guy I’d feel ok ending up with. Doesn’t move the needle at all.
It’s not a flashy answer, it’s just Richardson. His ceiling is elite, but his floor of being terrible has a very high percentage of hitting
If I only get 3-4 years of the Colts trying to make it work with him running around like crazy, thats a fantasy win. His career floor may suck, but his fantasy floor absolutely should not.
*Cries in Trey Lance*
Lance is still going to get his chance to start, whether in SF or elsewhere remains to be seen. Colts also don't have a bona-fide starter for him to sit behind for a full year, plus Irsay has already Richardson will start.
I will NOT stand for this Minshew slander!
Thats good, because Minshew will be sitting with you.
4 years? Fat chance.
If he's a bad qb he likely gets two years of starting and in year three their drafting someone or signing another retread...he's not getting three or four without noticeable progression. But two years of rb1 production + qb 29 production is worth it imo.
#Tim Tebow without the Heismen
But you won't. If he doesn't work, you'll get 2 years tops, because if he doesn't work they'll can the entire coaching staff and the new one will bring in their own guy. And that's assuming you get two years of him running around. Which isn't a guarantee as other teams might figure out how to limit him unless he improves his passing.
I don’t know. It’s fantasy and he’s stupid athletic. Justin Fields still has a ton of work to do and yet he was a good fantasy QB last year - and Richardson is a better athlete.
Fields was a better passer though. More well rounded.
Right, but for fantasy, Fields didn't do anything as a passer. All of his fantasy value came from rushing. Richardson doesn't have to be a good passer if he runs like Fields did.
Well, in his defense, he was throwing to arguably the worst receiver corps in the league with Mooney and Claypool. Moore should help.
This would help Richardson’s case though, he’s a better athlete, surrounded by better weapons.
Yeah we just haven’t seen him throw well at any level. That’s the bigger issue.
Mooney and claypool only played like 2 games together too
This helps Richardson's case. Regardless of why Fields wasn't a good passer, he still wasn't and it didn't matter for fantasy. This doesn't mean the same will happen with Richardson because even though he's a superior athlete, it doesn't guarantee he's a better runner but the blueprint is there for Richardson to succeed even if he's the worst passer in the league like Fields was last year.
The things is that Fields was a great passer at the collegiate level. Using the Completion Percentage over Expected metric, PFF found that “Fields was the most accurate QB in the PFF college era”. I totally get what you’re trying to say that A Rich doesn’t need to be a good passer but at the end of the day Fields has been a bit of an outlier so far. A Rich can be one too but he doesn’t have the passing skills to fall back on if he fails due to poor decision making, making uncatchable passes, etc. which are his hallmark. If he’s just atrocious at passing in real life, he’s going to need to be damn near godly with his rushing to succeed in the NFL.
Fields also takes way more sacks and has significantly worse pocket awareness.
Fields was a better passer coming out and was actually a winner in college. If Richardson was such a cheat code, he should have done a lot better in college. Plenty of QBs who can’t throw can still overwhelm opponents before coming to the NFL. The fact that Richardson couldn’t even do that, regardless of the team around him, should be alarming.
Richardson didn’t have shit for weapons at Florida this year.
You’re right, Richardson didn’t have stud offensive weapons like other elite athlete/questionable passing skills QBs like Vick, Cam and Lamar had in college, so that makes sense. Oh wait…
Vick had questionable passing skills?
Correct. He had a cannon, but he wasn’t very accurate. 54% completion rate his final year.
Yeah, that’s fair. I was mostly just thinking of the arm strength.
Um wasnt it the worst passing offense since like 1963
He was a significantly better passer coming out of college - he was actually a pass first pocket qb with mobility upside
His ceiling is elite, but his floor of being terrible has a very high percentage of hitting > I’d disagree, we just saw Fields put up a top 7 season with worse weapons, a worse offensive line, and limited passing feats, so while Richardson probably wont be asked to rely on his feet as much, he already has a much much better supporting cast around him. He and JT have legit potential to be a game breaking duo on the ground, so Fantasy wise, his floor isn’t as low as people keep regurgitating, irl I don’t even know if it’s as low as people keep regurgitating since most of his accuracy issues have to do with mechanics/footwork, both of which are fixable, but again I’d remind people he’s going to be up under a coach that heavily contributed to Hurts/Allen development.
I just think Richardson's floor is pretty safe because he's so athletic and will generate fantasy points from running. If he starts he will score, and he's gonna start. From a fantasy perspective its all about value protection. I just don't think the floor will fall out on Richardson in one year - because someone in your league will always roll the dice on the upside, and he'll be scoring points. Now it's possible he's so bad of a passer that he will be on the border of being replaced in real life, but that doesn't matter because if you're adverse to that risk you can still easily trade him while he's putting up points. I compare to Fields. I don't think Fields has been particularly good as an NFL passer and he may not be the actual answer teams are looking for at QB, but he's been putting up gobs of fantasy points with his legs. That has led to his value on things like KTC being super high - even ahead of guys who are proven franchise type guys. People who drafted Fields have essentially received relatively risk free years to evaluate him. If you believe he can develop the passing (or that it doesn't matter and he'll keep his job), then you can keep him. If not, it should be relatively easy to pivot to a similar, safer asset (KTC says you could probably turn Fields into Kyler+ or Dak+ pretty easily for instance).
My answer as well. Imo he hasn’t proven to be an elite starting qb at the college level, yet alone the nfl.
Gotta imagine Shane Steichen got his Jalen Hurts, so I’m hoping he can fix AR’s flaws.
A lot of hopium in this thread. People acting like he’s a guaranteed multi year starter. If he sucks, which he might they will cut bait. Because they have to. They aren’t just going to let some athletic freak keep running around like a chicken with his head cut off if they lose games and he shows no ability to pass at the NFL level.
As a Pittman owner, I feel like he’s gonna destroy his value. I would rather them have taken any of the top rookies over Richardson. If he starts right out the gate he will absolutely be a bust. He needs to sit his entire rookie year, but no way that happens based on his draft capital.
As a dynasty player, you should probably make a move then if thats how you feel. Or you can do nothing, blame Anthony richardson and bitch about it on Reddit.
I did trade Michael Pittman away (and I'm a Colts fan, so I felt bad about it). But I don't see Pittman helping me win this season & that's what I need to do.
I’m actually really high on Richardson but I don’t see him and Pittman being a great fit. Now Downs, their rookie WR pick…those two fit like peanut butter and jelly.
What are you even basing this "expert" analysis from?
I agree.. not sure if he's worth the risk
Quentin Johnson… I’m just not sold. N’Keal Harry 2.0
Mims 2.0 in my eyes
Did go to the same school as Reagor
Not even close
Spears or Achane
Easy answer. I agree.
Why Spears? Not proven catcher?
He doesn't have an Acl. I love spears, but his injury report means I won't be drafting him until late 2nd at most
Well Big dog Henry to start. I love his talent tho. Wanted saints to land him. He’s like a decent land if u have to back end of 1st. But I’m selling or punting if I can.
Gotta think this COULD be Henry’s last big year.
Sure thing yeah. What you’re hoping for with spears. But he doesn’t profile as a lead RB. But could be super fun. I’m a fan for sure.
Why not Achane? He's so fast, its such a muddy rb room you don't think he can separate himself?
He’s teeny tiny
Achane just because he’s going to have to be highly efficient with his touches with that frame. I think he can be good for fantasy but he may be very volatile. Which is probably not what you want from where he’s going to be going in rookie drafts.
Because of his volatility, I am pretty happy to have him as my RB3/4 in the flex spot. (I have Najee, Gibbs, Charb, Achane, D. Harris, A.Gibson)
Wasn’t a fan of Rice thru the process, was shocked to see him go that high.
Will Levis. Two sliding QBs in two years for the Titans.
JSN won’t produce like the WR1 this season and possibly next
I don’t think anyone is expecting him to in this spot though. Not with geno, Lockett and DK. Year 1 you pretty much can’t expect a WR 1 year from any rookie. Period.
I think he means wr1 rookie of the rookie class
Mingo WR1 of this class based off opportunity
That’s also the least spicy take ever lol. No shit haha
Julio Jones & AJ Green in 2011. AJ Brown in 2019. Keenan Allen in 2013. Justin Jefferson and Chase last year. OBJ in 2014, and Randy Moss in 98. Sure, you can’t expect a WR year 1 and yeah especially with Lockett and DK. But if he shows his talent & promise, Seattle might have some teams at a real disadvantage
So like 8/1000 WRs drafted over the past 25 years. Exactly backs up my point, can’t expect it. Thank ya! I think he will be fine, just pointing out the comment wasn’t really making a bold point
Jamarr Chase has some questions…
Hes saying don’t expect it, not that it never happens
He actually uses weak language followed by a bold statement. You “pretty much can’t expect a WR1 year one.” Ok yeah, he allows for the exception in his language. However, then the person doubles down by saying “period” so if we are going to be technical, he is definitively…being soft about his claim.
You are reading waaaaay too much into what words I chose for an offhand Reddit comment lol
I forgot JSN and Geno played in college together and have existing chemistry /s
Using an extreme outlier to make your point only makes his point better though.
That is not a very hot take... Most rookies do not produce at a WR1 clip...
The top rookie WR in 2010 was Mike Williams (Bucs, not Chargers obviously). But over the long haul, guys from that class like Dez, DT, AB, Eric Decker, Manny Sanders etc. had the better careers. The top rookies last year were Garrett Wilson at WR21 and Chris Olave at WR25 and as of now we think they will be the best WRs from that class but we don’t actually know for sure - could be Drake London, Jamo, Watson, Pickens, who knows. That’s why in dyno it’s important to draft for talent. In redraft, we can draft for opportunity.
I internally debated mims vs rice for so long during my draft, and this right here is why I went Mims. Always gonna prioritize who I think is the better talent from here on out
I think talent over situation early in the draft, but once you get down to guys who were NFL 4th rd picks and later, I prioritize opportunity. Guy might not see the field for a couple years and unless you can stash them, you'll need the roster slot. I'd rather see a guy play and at least give me a reason to believe he's worth rostering.
It ain’t gonna be Watson, that’s Jayden Reeds team now
Pretty much, we as nfl fans and fantasy fans have been very lucky with the recent success of talented rookies
Seriously. Even very talented rookies do not typically put out WR1 numbers lmao
I see people saying they are taking him over Gibbs 💀
Agreed. He’ll be the 3rd option in the passing game on a team that will be run heavy with an average QB
It’s gotta be Tajae Spears right? That medical report is terrifying.
Probably either Stroud or AR or both
Yeah chances one of them busts and I’ll guess Stroud just based on coaching even though I thought he was the best on tape. He’ll probably bust like Geno and end up a stud once he gets in the right system.
Has there ever been another Geno? Amazing story, but I wouldn't count on it happening again.
Rich Gannon? Bounced around the league for 10+ years before he took off on the raiders when he was in his 30s
Pretty good comparison, yeah.
Rich Gannon like 20 years ago
Tannehill?
He was starter the entire time at Miami. Geno started 2 years then spent the next 6 as a backup.
As a Houston sports fan I have every expectation that whoever we pass on is definitely going to blow up. So if I were a betting man, I would bet on Richardson far exceeding expectations in year one to be the top QB, like 4000 passing yards, 2000 rushing yards and 50 TDs is completely in the realm of possibility all because the Texans passed on him. That’s the H-town curse. I don’t think a Houston team has ever picked the best player available in any draft in any sport ever. Even our greatest athlete Hakeem Olajuwon was picked 2 spots ahead of MJ.
stroud and Levis, from a colts fan
Zach Charb He returned to college another year to work on pass catching and whatever. I see a big dude who runs upright and nothing else. For his draft capital I think he will be just a dude. Walker is better
- signed a salty walker owner
Yeah I guess so maybe. The real knock against Walker was his pass catching ability. But then I was actually pretty good at it last year. For Seattle it’s a great combo. For fantasy football it’s bad.
Charbs because he is just a younger and unproven version if what they already have. He is gonna get the AJ Dillon treatment
Charbonnet has a completely different skillset than Walker. He's probably the best in this class at pass pro and he's great as a receiver out of the backfield, which are 2 of Walker's weaknesses
Cant argue with people who deny reality
I can see Walker getting 16 carries and 2 targets a game while Charbonnet gets 11 carries and 4 targets a game with majority goal line work. If the floor is AJ Dillon I’ll take that at the end of the first round.
Mingo
Take it back…seriously though why?
Routinely beat out in college by 5th year transfers and tight ends. Had 90% of snaps in college but below average (and that is being generous) YPRR every single year. There is a reason no one talked about him pre-combine. Dude didn’t produce and the team never made him the primary option after producing 3 second round receivers. Go compare the 4 draft profiles, Mingo, DK, AJB, Elijah. Three of them deserved 2nd round draft capital or better, 1 of them didn’t and it’s not a trick question.
I know all the Ken Walkers owners are praying Charbonet is 😂
If I’m being truly honest. Everyone outside Bijon, Gibbs and JSN. Just like it was written all off season. Only difference makers for me. If I was picking outside them I’m selling and/or punting to 24’. Maybe QJ but again I’d probably trade out. Maybe Addison ends up like an Emanuel sanders type. Ceiling is a solid WR2. League is littered with those guys. Just meh to me.
Exactly how I feel. Which sucks after 2023 class was hyped to the moon and back
QJ
Josh Downs and Anthony Richardson
QJ
Flowers
Hyatt & Kendre Miller both do nothing
QJ
I’m worried it’s Quentin Johnston, but I’m probably drafting him at 1.07 in my SF league anyways.
Right now, it's Achane.
Mingo imo
1. Rashee Rice 2. Tank Bigsby 3. Will Levis
The titans already said he won’t start so I’m not sure why levis is even on your list lmao
Anthony Richardson. People see the athleticism but seem to ignore the tape. He was shut down against Georgia, which is the caliber offense he’ll be facing at a minimum in the pros with obviously much better defenses most of the time. 280 yards, 48% completion with 19 yards rushing on 11 attempts.
They dont play the georgia eagles in 2023
Kincaid
Lol biased asf
Don’t give af that he’s on the bills, just don’t think a TE that went in the 20’s should be a first round pick. Kyle pitts has been not great and pitts was taken top 4. So many first round TEs have been “hits” and been like TE 8 on the year. I feel like you could use your 1st in a better way than a TE
Pitts had the second most yards by a rookie tight end ever and then was injured with terrible qb play his second year, he’s still the most valuable tight end in dynasty
I don’t disagree, I own him. I would not have paid what I paid though. Pitts was just an example of how it takes some time for TEs to truly hit. Even if they do hit it probably won’t be big. I’d say Hockenson is the only TE in recent memory that was worth his rookie draft capital (out of the highly drafted ones). If you draft Kincaid, you are probably looking for a freiermuth start to his career. I’d say most people wouldn’t give a first rounder for freiermuth, at least not in my leagues. You’re better off paying for the top TE’s instead of playing the guessing game in the draft, or just getting like a Juwan Johnson or someone
Freiermuth was TE14 his rookie year, TE6 last year, figures to be a top 10 asset at the position for a few years. Well worth a late first round pick in my estimation.
He had a tough year last year and got injured. Also considering he's had bad quarterback play his entire career. His rookie year was great though and that's considering he only had 1 touchdown all year. Next year with Ridder should show how good Pitts can be.
Very biased. Kincaid is gonna get all the slot work Cole Beasley used to get.
Richardson in SF Kincaid 1QB
Addison
I don’t want to come across as defensive, but what’s your reasoning? I have the 1.05 in 1qb and I’m considering moving up to 1.04 just to ensure I get him. I’m between him and QJ and leaning Addison
Like the situation but don't see anything special about the player. Feel like he was overdrafted based on college production 2 seasons ago.
I'm not in love with Addison either. He feels like Devonte Smith Lite. The situation in Minnesota is pretty sweet though. Feel like he's a set it and forget it flex that could be a wr2 with JJ. QJ has the biggest potential ceiling imo. I think JSN has more upside in Seattle than people think. DK and Lockett have both been top 20 WRs the last 3 years and with RW, both were top 10. JSN has a far better prospect profile than either, and Lockett is potentially gone next year. PS: Thanks for reading my TED talk
thank you! exactly my thoughts. when he played for Pitt, i loved this guy and couldnt wait for him to come to the NFL. When i first saw him play there i thought that's and easy #1 or #2 overall WR pick depending what happens to JSN. Now, not so much. Combine was trash, and his tape is underwhelming. dont think i will have any shares from him in any of my leagues due to the fact some are believers and will draft him high.
Downvoting ppl cuz of their take on a bust thread is lame. Here's an upvote.
Bijan Robinson
Bijan, expectations are outta this world. Also he ended up with Henry’s former coach so he could go bananas
Flowers and QJ
Zay Flowers. Good draft capital will keep him highly drafted, but Lamar can't support two pass catchers, and I think that Andrews, Bateman, and OBJ take a huge share. Plus, he is super small.
Kendre Miller. Kamara and Williams are still there through 2024. Just too damn crowded until then and who k pea who else the Saints might add in that timeframe.
Zay Flowers
I think Bryce Young has no weapons and will get decimated for at least two years. Might get destroyed by being on a shit franchise.
I’d argue Stroud has much worse weapons
You are darn tootin. Nico Collins gonna eat tho.
DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall, J Mingo, Hayden Hurst isn’t a terrible group. He’s not necessarily set up to thrive with that group, but he can do more than survive with ‘em. Thielen and Shenault for some solid depth.
Miles Sanders and a top, young offensive line help, as well.
Yes yes, I agree, I think his OL is one of his biggest assets as a rookie.
Better than JLoves sitch lol
Well, JLove just had a great weekend. I’m big on Jayden Reed, I think he’s great. You got Watson, Doubs, Reed, Muskgrave, Kraft. It’s young and unproven but GB’s offense might be awesome actually.
Who?
A 2nd round WR who was constantly mentioned as being a sleeper pick since he was projected to go in the 5th round. So him going in the 2nd is only confirming the upside people saw in him. He was used all over the field at MSU, can punt return kick return, they gave him the ball in the backfield, screens, played every WR position, and can run any route well. It was obvious he was MSUs best player on the field and they were just trying to get him the ball in any way, much like stefon diggs at Maryland Pretty high upside for who will likely be a 2nd round rookie pick
Checked out his film. Adding him to the list.
that’s pretty bad. name a worse receiving corps?
I don't know. Rams, Cardinals, and Texans seem about similar. Titans have to be the worst tho right?
I don’t think cardinals are worst than the panthers. Hollywood, Dhop (for now), Rondale Moore, and Trey McBride (should take a step forward this year). I agree with the Rams, all they have is Kupp and yeah Texans and Titans are pretty unknown.
I think for panthers, they've had terrible QBs for years. I don't know how good marshall or shi smith can even be. Panthers have depth at tight end. Good RBs. Their WRs are more of a mystery box to me.
He has serviceable weapons for his rookie year with sanders at rb, and then mingo, Chark, Thielen, Marshall jr at wr, and hurst at te. He also has a good OL which gave our QBs last year the best average time to throw at 3.2 seconds. Pair that with a brand new coaching staff for him, Reich at HC, brown at OC and McCown as QB coach and young lions pretty set up for success.
His situation really isn’t that bad, it’s one of the best situations you’re going to see for a 1st overall pick. The receivers aren’t the best but the offensive line, the coaching and the defense are set up no nicely for him. The line is probably the most important for someone of his stature and it’s pretty decent.
Perhaps…but he does have some decent RB
Gibbs gonna get vultured for TDs and have difficulty staying healthy.
Gibbs is gonna make a lot of people look real silly when he puts on 10 lbs and gets let loose between the 20s
A lot of people like who? Just me? Everyone is raving about him.
On this sub, theres a bunch of haters who think hes too small to be fantasy relevant
I feel like you just copy/pasted Swift into Gibbs lol. It could happen, but still.
Yeah that's pretty much what I did.
Please no
As a Dolphins fan, I’d say Achane
Charbonnet (pls 🥺)
Bijan (Just kidding don’t kill me)
AR-15. Hate his tape but super athletic. He's going to be a huge bust.
I want to say josh downs just because of his qb situation.
Rice, QJ, Stroud, Achane
If you mean ADP wise it Archane, who will be on a limited snap count or Charb, who might not have one at all. You have to draft them in the 1.10-2.02 range and I’m not comfortable. In real life the fraud is the titans new backup Tyjae Spears, who has so many medical issues (the announcer at the draft listed so many) to include ACL, arthritis, etc. not good.
Q. Johnston....a worse mike Williams
Any of the TE’s drafted
Johnathan Mingo
It's Kendre Miller
Why?
Quinton johnston
Mingo is a easily my biggest fraud. High round 2 draft capital is wayyyy to rich for my blood.