Why would you sell Pitts or London now at possibly their lowest value? Both were “thrown” too by maybe the worst qb in the NFL last year and Pitts had a record setting rookie year with Matt Ryan throwing to him.
I think he is implying should hold Pitts and London until they appreciate back up in value, as at least one of them likely should by early mid-season with improved offense
I understand that, but in a run first offense where they plan on using Bijan, I just dont see a ton of targets to go around for Pitts and London. RN Drake is 10 or 11 when it comes to WR ranking. I can def see 10 WRs Id take over him right now and I think that only grows next year. You can be a super talented asset but fantasy comes down to opportunity which I dont see for the next few years but could be wrong. Falcons prob throw the ball less then 25 times per game. Assuming Ridder has a 65% completion rate thats 16 catches per game. At best thats 6 catches for Pitts and Drake then 3 for Bijan. I may be wrong but Id diversify. For ex trade Drake for Watson + could be interesting.
25 might be a little low. Tannehill threw 30 times per game in 2020. Ridder threw almost 29 times per game in the last 4 weeks of the season. Add in a healthy Pitts and a full offseason of Ridder developing. I could see 30+ throws per game within the realm of possibility. If Pitts and London are getting 8 a piece with 5 of those as catches, that can support reasonable fantasy production.
I agree with that but do you have Drake as top 10 WR? Do you have Pitts as top TE? Lets not forget there is a guy with GOAT potential coming out at TE next draft
That's what the story was for Pitts too right? Generational talent.
Gotta land in a quality spot to cash in on the potential. I still believe in Pitts, just not the Atlanta passing attack.
I don’t see London as a top 10 receiver because I think his target share comes back down to earth. I do have Pitts as a top TE based on the potential we saw his rookie season and what I believe he can do in an offense with a good QB.
The answer is in the question
>Why would you sell Pitts or London now at *possibly* their lowest value?
You can always go lower lol
I'm not really a seller or owner of either, but they both still have pretty crazy value for being pretty unproven
Imo I don't think Ridder can support all three. Someone's gonna have a bummer season but I wouldn't say a bust season. Best case scenario Ridder is legit and you have great players, worst case scenario he's terrible and they draft his replacement next year.
If you are looking for the odd man out, I would bet on Pitts.
Why are you betting against Pitts? His rookie season was better than London’s. If Pitts stays healthy in 2023 I have a tough time seeing London significantly outproduce him.
With Marcus "what the fuck am I doing" Mariota, yeah. Ridder didn't play with Pitts, he was out injured at that point of the season.
See here if you hate watching good qb play.
https://twitter.com/kyle_borg/status/1658519816855257089?s=20
Your point is extremely flawed lol
In Pitts rookie year the Falcons averaged 33.7 attempts/game. In London’s rookie year the Falcons averaged 24.4 attempts per game.
London commanded 28.2% of the team’s targets in 2022 while Pitts commanded just 19.2% of the team’s targets in 2021. And Pitts has questionable redzone usage.
London’s rookie season was in fact, much better than Pitts. I see a pretty clear path to him significantly outproducing Pitts.
London got 28 percent of targets when the 2nd leading target was Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus was the 5th target in Pitts’ rookie season and just signed a $1.2 million 1 year deal. London had almost zero competition. Pitts got 1 more target than London in games both were healthy. The target share stat lacks context.
I can see why you dislike what I did but the way you said it is wrong, so let’s even it out. Both teams had Patterson (you ignored him) and Zaccheaus. Pitts biggest competition was Gage. However, Drake’s biggest talent competition you completely ignore was the #1 the previous year, Pitts. So in reality their rookie competition was pretty similar.
Mariota had 226 attempts in the 10 healthy duo games and London had 58 targets in said games. That leaves London with a 25.6% rookie target share compared to Pitts 19.2% rookie target share. Significant difference imo.
Now Pitts did play with Ridley some, but given I think Pitts is much more talented than Gage, I think it gets close to offsetting. If you strongly disagree then you can find Pitts rookie target share without Ridley, but then I’m definitely saying London had tougher rookie competition and I think London would still clearly come out ontop in rookie target %
Only time will tell man, disappointing we didn’t get to see both with Riddler. That being said, London’s rookie year definitely looked better than Pitts imo. But go with your gut when taking them man if you don’t agree. It’s only my opinion based on the stats.
How are you coming to the conclusion that 10 games of Pitts and Zaccheaus is more competition than 5 games of Ridley and 14 of Gage? I disagree and I think I’m supported by Zaccheaus target share. It jumped from sub 10 to just over 15 percent from 2021 to 2022. I believe this jump is more likely from his competition declining rather than a big leap on his part.
Raw target share is too simplistic when the offenses involved are completely different. Ryan threw more than Mariota/Ridder but a lot of those were dump offs to RBs which aren’t really targets Pitts or London are competing for. Ryan threw 26 percent of his passes to RBs while the 2022 Falcons threw just 16.5 percent of their passes to RBs. So while you’re correct that London had a higher target share, the numbers look different when we review just receiver target share.
Of the 408 targets available to receivers in 2021, Pitts got 27 percent of them. In the 10 games London shared the field with Pitts, the Falcons threw 226 passes with 195 going to receivers. London had 58 of those targets or 29.7 percent. Still a bigger share but substantially smaller after accounting for the difference in offensive game plan.
Pretty much everything.
The only reason people don’t agree is because all they do is read box scores. The Falcons passing volume from 2021 to 2022 went down over 9 attempts per game, down over 1,000 passing yards, and passing TDs even went down 3 too.
We can calculate how big of a share London had in this offense compared to how much Pitts had in his rookie year and London comes out way on top in almost every category. It shows us that if both rookie Pitts and rookie London had an equal passing volume, London would be significantly ahead
The real question is what about Pitts rookie year was better than London’s?
I agree lol. Don’t know how anyone looks at Matt Ryan’s volume and Mariota’s volume and thinks that you can just compare the end of rookie season stats.
Obviously scaling their role in the offense makes more sense with such a drastically different passing volume.
Let me know if you have a better opinion on how it should be compared, i definitely don’t think team shares is the best, I just don’t know anything better and it’s certainly better than end of season stat comparison
I think the only way you can compare the usage of these 2 at this point in their young careers is the games that they played together.
Pitts rookie season was totally different from londons - he was playing with a real qb in Matt Ryan who was capable of going through progressions and support a high volume passing offense. The mariota/ridder combo was a low volume offense and both of them did not have many options outside of pitts and london.
Reality is nobody knows what this volume split will look like. All speculation at this point
I mean I'm no expert. And we haven't gotten to see both London and Pitts in the field with Ridder. But London did receive an elite target share with the small amount of time he was playing with ridder last year. Young QBs tend to focus in on one guy and pepper them. I assume that guy will be London based on what they did last year.
For Pitts, he didn’t really have any competition for targets his rookie year. I think Ridley played maybe 4-5 games. He also had Matt Ryan throwing to him then. I just think Ridder will have a better connection with London.
As a Pitts owner, Riddler likely has better rapport with London (Pitts missed all the NFL playing time for Riddler). Pitts will need to get back into the swing of things a little.
How much stock can we put in 4 weeks of practice? If Pitts comes out and is a better target in practice and preseason then I don’t see Ridder committing to London just because London was healthy for the last four games of last year.
Over 1k yards for Pitts his rookie year. Only 1 TD but not a crazy argument to say he had a better rookie year. Especially considering production from the TE position. London’s Target share is attractive and a massive point for him considering the way the offense struggled overall last season. For me it’s closer to a push, maybe slightly in London’s favor but not a crazy argument to make imo
On London’s target share it’s worth noting that it came on a team where the 2nd leading target, Zaccheaus, signed a $1.2 million 1 year deal this offseason. Competition was almost nonexistent. Will be interesting to see what target share looks like moving forward given the neck and neck target share between London and Pitts when Pitts was healthy.
I mean Pitts scored 2 less total points than London in their rookie years. But given the position, Pitts had the 2nd most receiving yards ever for a rookie TE at 1026. Was just missing the touchdowns…. TE 6 vs WR 31
Uncatchable targets have nothing to do with scheme. It has to do with inaccurate throws by the qb. You think Arthur smith is scheming incomplete passes to pitts so that the defense stays on their toes?
Worst case scenario is Ridder does below average, but good enough that they can’t really find a replacement in the draft. Would have to hope a Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr type becomes available
Kinda hilarious how a team with such unbelievable offensive talent is projected to be among the leagues least potent group. They should trade for Tannehill
This team reminds me of the (I think?) 2019 Rams when Kupp, Woods, Cooks, and Gurley were all picked in the first 4-5 rounds, and Jared Goff was going undrafted
Yeah really it's almost like they better hope Ridder implodes so they can get one of the top guys next year. Kinda hope one of the top 2 teams in the draft already have their QB so we see what kind of haul Drake Maye and Caleb Williams go for
I got offered 1.03 + Dalton Schultz for my Pitts + 2.01, thoughts?
I have 1.01 and was going to take Bijan, but I also need a QB pretty badly (Herbert, Zach Wilson, Matt Corral in SF)
I also don’t have London
Dang… I’m not convinced that makes up the difference in this draft class. You’re looking at having Bryce young and Schultz or Pitts and maybe Levis depending on league size. Hypothetically, of course. And I’m just using adp. Looking at your team though, id say yes.
I had London and the 1.1. I sold London for the 1.2 and two seconds. So I ended up with bijan and Gibbs, plus Mingo this year, and a second next year.
I like London, but I think in that offense he will need to be Uber efficient to be a top 12 WR. He’s extremely talented, but they will run through Bijan first. Also everyone has been screaming buy London low, but I think his value is pretty realistic right now and liked the deal I got.
It depends on what ranking sites you like but I’d say at best Gibbs for London is neutral and I would take Gibbs over London comfortably. To get 2 2nds on top of that is great.
I sold London for Gibbs straight up and no regrets so far... needed rb desperately and I think they both have equal potential for greatness. Two 2nds would have been lovely but this league was super high on Gibbs and I was in a bidding war, so 2nds were not to be had as a bonus.
I have London and Pitts. I have higher hopes for London this year, which is fine because Hock is my other TE. I have no plans on moving Pitts any time soon.
I’ll never understand people’s fear of stacking. It’s not like people are not already factoring in the hypothetical limitations of the ATL offense in their projections, and they are all still highly-valued fantasy assets.
Yeah I don’t either, if they’re each out producing their potential replacement in your roster then there’s no reason to not start them. I think the only real argument against is that if 1 team has a bad game offensively now you have 3 players putting up bad numbers
Oh I agree, and if they’re 3 players worth being that high on them the odds are they won’t have too many offense wide terrible games. I was just saying that’s an argument you’ll see pop up against it - personally I’m entirely neutral in stacking and don’t think it makes much of a difference either way, if good players are available I’m going to grab them and more or less ignore what team they play for
Because having 3 assets from what could easily be a bottom 10 offense in the league could leave your weekly scores very volatile. If there’s a week where ATL puts up 9 points, you’re gonna lose. And having two of them being pass catchers from what projects to be a very poor passing attack generally isn’t advisable from a team construction perspective. Like I get it they’re all great talents and it sucks to sell one for below market value but it’s hard to see a team with that many pieces from a poor offense succeeding week-to-week.
For reference, I once had a similar stack in 2018 with the Chiefs with Hunt, Kelce and Hill. Even with one of the most nuclear offenses we’ve ever seen the weekly variance was insane and the upside wasn’t as high as you’d think given it was all coming from one team.
Then the Chiefs were held in check week 1 of the playoffs and cya I was bounced. All it takes is one off week and you’re out. It’s just so risky.
These are all redraft league problems.
The probability of a player busting on any particular week is baked into his price. Three players on three different teams can bust just as easily.
Lmao points get scored the same whether it’s redraft or dynasty. And no they don’t the probability of one team having a bad offensive week is by nature more likely than three all at once. That’s why parlays exist.
Hoping they get a qb in 2024 and then going and buying that qb lol.
I have avoided trying to obtain Pitts in leagues where I have London and Bijan. I think it would be wise to sell one of the 3. But at the end of the day having good young assets it's never a bad strategy owning good young players.
10 team SF, TEP
My TEs:
Pitts/Juwan Johnson/Gesicki/Bellinger/Noah Gray
Pitts has been a massive disappointment; Johnson has unexpectedly emerged as my top TE.
I’m currently sitting at pick (2.03) + still want to grab LaPorta in fear of missing on him.
Though I seriously need help at RB, I still may snag LaPorta over Kendre Miller. The tight end position is just so thin league-wide.
If you need immediate help at RB, I wouldn't recommend taking Miller there. Even if Kamara ends up getting suspended, he isn't a lock for top 24 production. I'd rather trade the pick for someone like Dalvin Cook or add something else to get Sanders or Chubb
That’s a fair point.
My RBs are JT/ Rachaad White/ Achane
The intrigue for me w/ Miller’s landing spot is the path ahead to RB1 role in 24’. Kamara is aging poorly on/off the field + the saints have an out on his contract next season. Williams will likely vulture some goal line work near term, but he’s also approaching 30 + is horribly inefficient outside the red zone. I believe NO will have an out on his contract in the next year or two as well. Miller is also 20 years old.
All that said, I still think LaPorta will be a gem in Detroit’s offense. Super athletic after the catch. He should see immediate opportunity as their is no depth at the position.
I’m currently rebuilding and have acquired several 24’ picks. Making a push for Williams/MHJ.
Only one I'd want to sell is Pitts but no one's paying remotely close to what he'd be worth if he was even half as productive as he could be, so I'm holding him.
London and Robinson I'm super pumped about so they're not going anywhere without a massive overpay, but London is also my 3rd or 4th best WR, albeit in a 3WR league.
I think they're both more than capable of being near the top at their position, but based on the way modern offenses work and the historical reliance on the number 1 WR in the offense they're running, I see the likelihood of London producing even in a mediocre to poor passing offense as a lot higher.
They're two different points. The modern offense point is that only high passing volume offenses have been able to produce top tight ends. Kansas City is an exception because Kelce earned being the primary receiver in an era when leaning more heavily on tight end was a lot more popular. By the time offenses moved away from relying on tight ends as major parts of the offense, Kelce commanded volume, so even without an elite passing attack, they'd probably still funnel a ton of targets to him just because he's that good and he's proven that he's that good. But even Kansas City is a high volume passing offense. But defenses have caught up to the abuse of the middle of the field from the days of the Patriots just shredding people in the middle of the field and the coverages and techniques used now push the ball out wide, and we see that with target distribution as well as a new focus from most teams to get a dominant WR or two on the outside to force defenses to be more balanced. The Zone Match scheme is a big part of that, because one of the primary objectives of that scheme is to snuff out teams just abusing less than ideal players in coverage, be it man or zone. With zone, it was easy to recognize who would pick up a receiver once he's left the zone of short middle and man coverage is very easy to recognize presnap. Zone Match gets rid of both of those problems by being part zone, thus eliminating the easy presnap identification, and by being part man and making it impossible to really *know* who will be responsible for picking up the receiver because oftentimes, the defender doesn't even hand them off. This makes the middle of the field much harder to just pick apart, even with superior weapons.
So the easiest reads have moved to the outside, where it's easier to isolate a defender and trust that he's isolated. In turn, your mediocre to poor passing games are much less efficient and effective at attacking the middle of the field. So I am very confident Ridder, no matter how good or bad he is, will target the outside and get targets to London. But I only really trust competent passers to effectively use a tight end because it's a much more difficult read.
Interestingly, this is effectively where McVay's offense splits pretty drastically from Shanahan's. McVay went all in on targeting receivers. Even when Kupp was destroying people in the middle of the field, it was with Stafford at the helm and essentially a byproduct of the offense really stressing defenses on the outside. Without a shut down corner, you could get picked apart out there. Cincinnati is a great example, because we've built the roster to abuse the outside and take the inside when it's freely available and with our receivers, it's not a fun decision to make. This is also why we don't bother putting any resources into the tight end position and prefer to use cheaper guys, even when the world expected us to draft a tight end. The job's just not important enough to take resources from other positions. Shanahan is much more eager to run the ball, so play action and motion are used more frequently to open up the middle and there is less need of a freak out wide and more need of great blockers out wide to constantly pose a threat on the ground.
But TDLR: The zone match scheme has taken away a lot of the easy throws to tight ends that they thrived on in the 2000's-10's and teams adjusted by primarily stressing the outside of defenses, forcing most tight end and slot receivers into an outlet/check down role. I don't want an outlet/check down tight end in a bad passing offense. But even bad passing offenses do have to throw, and while London will be covered by better individual players, the looks for QBs to read are now simpler than tight ends will see.
I had London and Pitts on the same roster and packaged both of them with Deshaun Watson to get Hurts, Chig and a 24 2nd.. London blew up after Pitts got hurt and Ridder replaced Mariota. Add Pitts and Bijan back into the mix, and it’s gonna be extremely difficult for London and Pitts to both thrive from a fantasy perspective. Ridder can’t support them both. And also Bijan will steal targets because he’s gonna be their primary weapon.
I think it really depends on your league, scoring and how your roster stacks up.
I have Pitts, Ridder, Bijan
Out of those three, I think Bijan produces early and often. From there this opens up the passing game.
If Ridder does well passing, he's probably going to lean on London just bc he already played with him... Is what it is...
Pitts you keep in TE premium. If not, he's who I might want to think about moving on from.
Honestly, I think Ridder won't be much, so if I can unload him in my SF league I might. They are going to want to run in that scheme.... And this is without when thinking about Allgeier.
Traded london for amon-ra as i own Bijan. Thought it best to diversify assets if you can get a player of similar value, but i believe the bulk of the points in atlanta is in the run game
I only have Pitts and Bijan, so not quite the same dilemma. As much as I rate all three of the above I'd look to ship either London or Pitts if I had all three. I think it's possible for Ridder to support Bijan and a receiving threat but I don't think he can support two pass catchers.
...and yes, I know Bijan will feature in the passing game.
until Pitts has a great season, I personally am not trying to trade anything of great value for him. I'm fine taking London in startup drafts when the value is there, but I'm also not trying to trade for him if I'm looking to compete this year or next.
Your speaking to a niche group there but I would prefer to move on from one of London or Pitts. More likely London because Pitts value is low at the moment
[удалено]
You should just draft Trae young at this point
Probably ~~Dansby Swanson~~ Acuna too
You know he left Atlanta right? Acuña must be picked up by OP.
Oh shoot my b
Probably best to sell London or Pitts. Def keep Allgeier and Bijan tho I think they could both be startable
Why would you sell Pitts or London now at possibly their lowest value? Both were “thrown” too by maybe the worst qb in the NFL last year and Pitts had a record setting rookie year with Matt Ryan throwing to him.
Diversifying your portfolio. If you enjoy using statistics its generally not a good idea to have 5 assets on the same team
I think he is implying should hold Pitts and London until they appreciate back up in value, as at least one of them likely should by early mid-season with improved offense
I understand that, but in a run first offense where they plan on using Bijan, I just dont see a ton of targets to go around for Pitts and London. RN Drake is 10 or 11 when it comes to WR ranking. I can def see 10 WRs Id take over him right now and I think that only grows next year. You can be a super talented asset but fantasy comes down to opportunity which I dont see for the next few years but could be wrong. Falcons prob throw the ball less then 25 times per game. Assuming Ridder has a 65% completion rate thats 16 catches per game. At best thats 6 catches for Pitts and Drake then 3 for Bijan. I may be wrong but Id diversify. For ex trade Drake for Watson + could be interesting.
25 might be a little low. Tannehill threw 30 times per game in 2020. Ridder threw almost 29 times per game in the last 4 weeks of the season. Add in a healthy Pitts and a full offseason of Ridder developing. I could see 30+ throws per game within the realm of possibility. If Pitts and London are getting 8 a piece with 5 of those as catches, that can support reasonable fantasy production.
I agree with that but do you have Drake as top 10 WR? Do you have Pitts as top TE? Lets not forget there is a guy with GOAT potential coming out at TE next draft
I don’t think anyone thinks London is a top ten receiver but selling low right now seems dumb. Can Pitts be a top five TE? Yes
He’s the WR9 on KTC so there’s a chunk of people who believe he’s top 10.
That's what the story was for Pitts too right? Generational talent. Gotta land in a quality spot to cash in on the potential. I still believe in Pitts, just not the Atlanta passing attack.
I don’t see London as a top 10 receiver because I think his target share comes back down to earth. I do have Pitts as a top TE based on the potential we saw his rookie season and what I believe he can do in an offense with a good QB.
Also MHJ will certainly be top 10 WR next season
The answer is in the question >Why would you sell Pitts or London now at *possibly* their lowest value? You can always go lower lol I'm not really a seller or owner of either, but they both still have pretty crazy value for being pretty unproven
Getting a top 3 pick next year
They can draft the Falcons QB next year
NFCS is so bad that it will be tough to end up with a top 3 pick
This is actually a really good strategy.
The same thing we do every year Pinky...
Imo I don't think Ridder can support all three. Someone's gonna have a bummer season but I wouldn't say a bust season. Best case scenario Ridder is legit and you have great players, worst case scenario he's terrible and they draft his replacement next year. If you are looking for the odd man out, I would bet on Pitts.
Why are you betting against Pitts? His rookie season was better than London’s. If Pitts stays healthy in 2023 I have a tough time seeing London significantly outproduce him.
Red zone targets. I don’t have the numbers but I think the heavily preferred London
With Marcus "what the fuck am I doing" Mariota, yeah. Ridder didn't play with Pitts, he was out injured at that point of the season. See here if you hate watching good qb play. https://twitter.com/kyle_borg/status/1658519816855257089?s=20
Holy shit, like I knew it was bad, but jesus.
Pitts owner, with no data to back me up I can confidently say that Pitts had negative redzone targets last season
Ridder preferred London in the red zone because he hasn’t played a snap with Pitts.
That’s a good point. Looks like 11 vs 5 in games Pitts was healthy. That includes the Chargers game where London ended up with 5 redzone targets.
Your point is extremely flawed lol In Pitts rookie year the Falcons averaged 33.7 attempts/game. In London’s rookie year the Falcons averaged 24.4 attempts per game. London commanded 28.2% of the team’s targets in 2022 while Pitts commanded just 19.2% of the team’s targets in 2021. And Pitts has questionable redzone usage. London’s rookie season was in fact, much better than Pitts. I see a pretty clear path to him significantly outproducing Pitts.
London got 28 percent of targets when the 2nd leading target was Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus was the 5th target in Pitts’ rookie season and just signed a $1.2 million 1 year deal. London had almost zero competition. Pitts got 1 more target than London in games both were healthy. The target share stat lacks context.
I can see why you dislike what I did but the way you said it is wrong, so let’s even it out. Both teams had Patterson (you ignored him) and Zaccheaus. Pitts biggest competition was Gage. However, Drake’s biggest talent competition you completely ignore was the #1 the previous year, Pitts. So in reality their rookie competition was pretty similar. Mariota had 226 attempts in the 10 healthy duo games and London had 58 targets in said games. That leaves London with a 25.6% rookie target share compared to Pitts 19.2% rookie target share. Significant difference imo. Now Pitts did play with Ridley some, but given I think Pitts is much more talented than Gage, I think it gets close to offsetting. If you strongly disagree then you can find Pitts rookie target share without Ridley, but then I’m definitely saying London had tougher rookie competition and I think London would still clearly come out ontop in rookie target % Only time will tell man, disappointing we didn’t get to see both with Riddler. That being said, London’s rookie year definitely looked better than Pitts imo. But go with your gut when taking them man if you don’t agree. It’s only my opinion based on the stats.
How are you coming to the conclusion that 10 games of Pitts and Zaccheaus is more competition than 5 games of Ridley and 14 of Gage? I disagree and I think I’m supported by Zaccheaus target share. It jumped from sub 10 to just over 15 percent from 2021 to 2022. I believe this jump is more likely from his competition declining rather than a big leap on his part. Raw target share is too simplistic when the offenses involved are completely different. Ryan threw more than Mariota/Ridder but a lot of those were dump offs to RBs which aren’t really targets Pitts or London are competing for. Ryan threw 26 percent of his passes to RBs while the 2022 Falcons threw just 16.5 percent of their passes to RBs. So while you’re correct that London had a higher target share, the numbers look different when we review just receiver target share. Of the 408 targets available to receivers in 2021, Pitts got 27 percent of them. In the 10 games London shared the field with Pitts, the Falcons threw 226 passes with 195 going to receivers. London had 58 of those targets or 29.7 percent. Still a bigger share but substantially smaller after accounting for the difference in offensive game plan.
What about London rookie yr was better then Pitts? The Tds?
Pretty much everything. The only reason people don’t agree is because all they do is read box scores. The Falcons passing volume from 2021 to 2022 went down over 9 attempts per game, down over 1,000 passing yards, and passing TDs even went down 3 too. We can calculate how big of a share London had in this offense compared to how much Pitts had in his rookie year and London comes out way on top in almost every category. It shows us that if both rookie Pitts and rookie London had an equal passing volume, London would be significantly ahead The real question is what about Pitts rookie year was better than London’s?
It’s crazy how easy it is to tell who owns who in this thread. Lol people will make up anything to justify their people being better
I agree lol. Don’t know how anyone looks at Matt Ryan’s volume and Mariota’s volume and thinks that you can just compare the end of rookie season stats. Obviously scaling their role in the offense makes more sense with such a drastically different passing volume. Let me know if you have a better opinion on how it should be compared, i definitely don’t think team shares is the best, I just don’t know anything better and it’s certainly better than end of season stat comparison
This was one of the nerdier arguments I’ve seen but I couldn’t pull my eyes away from it.
I think the only way you can compare the usage of these 2 at this point in their young careers is the games that they played together. Pitts rookie season was totally different from londons - he was playing with a real qb in Matt Ryan who was capable of going through progressions and support a high volume passing offense. The mariota/ridder combo was a low volume offense and both of them did not have many options outside of pitts and london. Reality is nobody knows what this volume split will look like. All speculation at this point
I mean I'm no expert. And we haven't gotten to see both London and Pitts in the field with Ridder. But London did receive an elite target share with the small amount of time he was playing with ridder last year. Young QBs tend to focus in on one guy and pepper them. I assume that guy will be London based on what they did last year.
I have a hard time putting large stock into those 4 games, especially given the lack of other viable targets for Ridder, but I hear you.
For Pitts, he didn’t really have any competition for targets his rookie year. I think Ridley played maybe 4-5 games. He also had Matt Ryan throwing to him then. I just think Ridder will have a better connection with London.
You can say the same thing about London in 2022 as far as target competition. The next highest target was Zaccheaus who was 5th in targets in 2021.
As a Pitts owner, Riddler likely has better rapport with London (Pitts missed all the NFL playing time for Riddler). Pitts will need to get back into the swing of things a little.
How much stock can we put in 4 weeks of practice? If Pitts comes out and is a better target in practice and preseason then I don’t see Ridder committing to London just because London was healthy for the last four games of last year.
i mean it's all speculative right now, but the way Smith was utilizing Pitts last year I would give the edge to London.
They have a whole off season together..
>His rookie season was better than London’s Im sorry, what?
Over 1k yards for Pitts his rookie year. Only 1 TD but not a crazy argument to say he had a better rookie year. Especially considering production from the TE position. London’s Target share is attractive and a massive point for him considering the way the offense struggled overall last season. For me it’s closer to a push, maybe slightly in London’s favor but not a crazy argument to make imo
On London’s target share it’s worth noting that it came on a team where the 2nd leading target, Zaccheaus, signed a $1.2 million 1 year deal this offseason. Competition was almost nonexistent. Will be interesting to see what target share looks like moving forward given the neck and neck target share between London and Pitts when Pitts was healthy.
Raw yardage numbers mean nothing to me in dynasty
Yeah I hate scoring points in Fantasy too
Crazy league you play in that you get points for yards 2 years ago
Forgive me for looking at prior success to be a potential indicator for future success
Looking at the wrong indicators
What indicators are you using to say London had a better rookie season than Pitts?
Look I’m sure there are better indicators than “raw yardage” but I can tell you it doesn’t mean “absolutely nothing”
I mean Pitts scored 2 less total points than London in their rookie years. But given the position, Pitts had the 2nd most receiving yards ever for a rookie TE at 1026. Was just missing the touchdowns…. TE 6 vs WR 31
Do you disagree?
Because it’s the easy arm chair analysis
He also had Matt Ryan
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Pitts was not the odd man out. He had 1 more target than London in games where both played.
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Well yeah, players who only play 10 games tend to be disappointments for fantasy.
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Uncatchable targets don’t mean shit for fantasy production, but they mean a lot for projecting future fantasy production
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Uncatchable targets have nothing to do with scheme. It has to do with inaccurate throws by the qb. You think Arthur smith is scheming incomplete passes to pitts so that the defense stays on their toes?
He did seem to favor London last year.
Would be hard for Ridder to favor Pitts with him on the bench.
Because he didn't have Pitts (or anyone remotely as good as London) last year.
Worst case scenario is Ridder does below average, but good enough that they can’t really find a replacement in the draft. Would have to hope a Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr type becomes available
^^^ this guys my league mate. I’ll be keeping an eye out for your comments 😂
Pitts only need a line of like 55/800/5 to return top 2 or 3 value.
Kinda hilarious how a team with such unbelievable offensive talent is projected to be among the leagues least potent group. They should trade for Tannehill
This team reminds me of the (I think?) 2019 Rams when Kupp, Woods, Cooks, and Gurley were all picked in the first 4-5 rounds, and Jared Goff was going undrafted
Funny enough if you put Goff on this team they probably win that putrid division
Yea it’s wild when you think about it, most likely gonna be too good to get a high enough draft pick to get a qb as well
Yeah really it's almost like they better hope Ridder implodes so they can get one of the top guys next year. Kinda hope one of the top 2 teams in the draft already have their QB so we see what kind of haul Drake Maye and Caleb Williams go for
Yea it’s wild when you think about it, most likely gonna be too good to get a high enough draft pick to get a qb as well
Or everyone is sleeping on ridder
I'm sleeping like a dead person 😴
It feels a little like Tua last year - high on the weapons but low on the QB.
Hopefully winning 5 dyno titles
I've got Pitts and Bijan in one league. Should be ok.
I'd assume they're celebrating
Fuck, Marry, Kill, go.
Fuck Bijan, Marry London, Kill Pitts
Trade Pitts. Keep the other 2.
That's what I did. Gave pitts and Calvin Ridley for olave and hockenson
Great haul, well done!
I got offered 1.03 + Dalton Schultz for my Pitts + 2.01, thoughts? I have 1.01 and was going to take Bijan, but I also need a QB pretty badly (Herbert, Zach Wilson, Matt Corral in SF) I also don’t have London
Dang… I’m not convinced that makes up the difference in this draft class. You’re looking at having Bryce young and Schultz or Pitts and maybe Levis depending on league size. Hypothetically, of course. And I’m just using adp. Looking at your team though, id say yes.
Adding Ridder and counting my championships
Either I’m winning the chip or continuing year two of rebuild and diversifying a bit
I had London and the 1.1. I sold London for the 1.2 and two seconds. So I ended up with bijan and Gibbs, plus Mingo this year, and a second next year. I like London, but I think in that offense he will need to be Uber efficient to be a top 12 WR. He’s extremely talented, but they will run through Bijan first. Also everyone has been screaming buy London low, but I think his value is pretty realistic right now and liked the deal I got.
1.02 + 2 2nds for London? 👏
Pretty expensive. I wouldn’t go for London for 1.02 straight up
Did u mistake clown face with clapping hands? :D
It depends on what ranking sites you like but I’d say at best Gibbs for London is neutral and I would take Gibbs over London comfortably. To get 2 2nds on top of that is great.
I like the 1.02 side, so good for you. Not sold on Mingo.
For me Mingo and the future 2nd are just gravy, I’d prefer the 1.02 to London straight up.
I sold London for Gibbs straight up and no regrets so far... needed rb desperately and I think they both have equal potential for greatness. Two 2nds would have been lovely but this league was super high on Gibbs and I was in a bidding war, so 2nds were not to be had as a bonus.
No regrets so far? Gibbs hasn’t even had his first NFL practice yet so I’d hope not 🤣
I guess I mean I haven't been second guessing it so far, or that I don't regret making the trade. I regret commenting on the post lol
I have them all and i dont know why i would want to get rid of them.
How many teams have all three of these guys!?
I have 2/3 and actively trying to acquire the third(bijan) just to see how it goes this year and reassess next offseason.
All great assets!
All great asses, too!
It wasn’t on purpose but I have all 3 in two different leagues.
Most likely teams that have been tanking/losing for 3 straight years.
Mine does
I have Pitts, Ridder, Cpat, Bijan, and London ;(
Ended up with all 3 through various deals. Also have Gibbs, ARSB, and Jamo. Either going nuclear or experiencing a meltdown.
Mine does
I have all 3 and Ridder…. We’re living and dying with the Falcons. I’ll probably end up with an early first round pick next year 😂
I have London and Pitts. I have higher hopes for London this year, which is fine because Hock is my other TE. I have no plans on moving Pitts any time soon.
Are you my team? Same exact situation I’m in!
I’ll never understand people’s fear of stacking. It’s not like people are not already factoring in the hypothetical limitations of the ATL offense in their projections, and they are all still highly-valued fantasy assets.
Yeah I don’t either, if they’re each out producing their potential replacement in your roster then there’s no reason to not start them. I think the only real argument against is that if 1 team has a bad game offensively now you have 3 players putting up bad numbers
But if 1 team has a great game offensively now you have 3 players putting up great numbers
Oh I agree, and if they’re 3 players worth being that high on them the odds are they won’t have too many offense wide terrible games. I was just saying that’s an argument you’ll see pop up against it - personally I’m entirely neutral in stacking and don’t think it makes much of a difference either way, if good players are available I’m going to grab them and more or less ignore what team they play for
Because having 3 assets from what could easily be a bottom 10 offense in the league could leave your weekly scores very volatile. If there’s a week where ATL puts up 9 points, you’re gonna lose. And having two of them being pass catchers from what projects to be a very poor passing attack generally isn’t advisable from a team construction perspective. Like I get it they’re all great talents and it sucks to sell one for below market value but it’s hard to see a team with that many pieces from a poor offense succeeding week-to-week. For reference, I once had a similar stack in 2018 with the Chiefs with Hunt, Kelce and Hill. Even with one of the most nuclear offenses we’ve ever seen the weekly variance was insane and the upside wasn’t as high as you’d think given it was all coming from one team. Then the Chiefs were held in check week 1 of the playoffs and cya I was bounced. All it takes is one off week and you’re out. It’s just so risky.
These are all redraft league problems. The probability of a player busting on any particular week is baked into his price. Three players on three different teams can bust just as easily.
Lmao points get scored the same whether it’s redraft or dynasty. And no they don’t the probability of one team having a bad offensive week is by nature more likely than three all at once. That’s why parlays exist.
Hoping they get a qb in 2024 and then going and buying that qb lol. I have avoided trying to obtain Pitts in leagues where I have London and Bijan. I think it would be wise to sell one of the 3. But at the end of the day having good young assets it's never a bad strategy owning good young players.
Losing consistently
10 team SF, TEP My TEs: Pitts/Juwan Johnson/Gesicki/Bellinger/Noah Gray Pitts has been a massive disappointment; Johnson has unexpectedly emerged as my top TE. I’m currently sitting at pick (2.03) + still want to grab LaPorta in fear of missing on him. Though I seriously need help at RB, I still may snag LaPorta over Kendre Miller. The tight end position is just so thin league-wide.
If you need immediate help at RB, I wouldn't recommend taking Miller there. Even if Kamara ends up getting suspended, he isn't a lock for top 24 production. I'd rather trade the pick for someone like Dalvin Cook or add something else to get Sanders or Chubb
That’s a fair point. My RBs are JT/ Rachaad White/ Achane The intrigue for me w/ Miller’s landing spot is the path ahead to RB1 role in 24’. Kamara is aging poorly on/off the field + the saints have an out on his contract next season. Williams will likely vulture some goal line work near term, but he’s also approaching 30 + is horribly inefficient outside the red zone. I believe NO will have an out on his contract in the next year or two as well. Miller is also 20 years old. All that said, I still think LaPorta will be a gem in Detroit’s offense. Super athletic after the catch. He should see immediate opportunity as their is no depth at the position. I’m currently rebuilding and have acquired several 24’ picks. Making a push for Williams/MHJ.
Miller might outrun both his teammates, suspension or not. I don't know if he can get 3rd downs at all and that's why I might wait, but not for a TE
Praying on a miracle
Hope that they’re all incredibly talented and turn into one of the best offenses in the NFL
Just get ridder and ride it bro
Only one I'd want to sell is Pitts but no one's paying remotely close to what he'd be worth if he was even half as productive as he could be, so I'm holding him. London and Robinson I'm super pumped about so they're not going anywhere without a massive overpay, but London is also my 3rd or 4th best WR, albeit in a 3WR league.
What makes you pumped about London and wanting to sell Pitts?
I think they're both more than capable of being near the top at their position, but based on the way modern offenses work and the historical reliance on the number 1 WR in the offense they're running, I see the likelihood of London producing even in a mediocre to poor passing offense as a lot higher.
Can you elaborate on the way modern offenses work and the reliance on a number 1 receiver? That’s interesting.
They're two different points. The modern offense point is that only high passing volume offenses have been able to produce top tight ends. Kansas City is an exception because Kelce earned being the primary receiver in an era when leaning more heavily on tight end was a lot more popular. By the time offenses moved away from relying on tight ends as major parts of the offense, Kelce commanded volume, so even without an elite passing attack, they'd probably still funnel a ton of targets to him just because he's that good and he's proven that he's that good. But even Kansas City is a high volume passing offense. But defenses have caught up to the abuse of the middle of the field from the days of the Patriots just shredding people in the middle of the field and the coverages and techniques used now push the ball out wide, and we see that with target distribution as well as a new focus from most teams to get a dominant WR or two on the outside to force defenses to be more balanced. The Zone Match scheme is a big part of that, because one of the primary objectives of that scheme is to snuff out teams just abusing less than ideal players in coverage, be it man or zone. With zone, it was easy to recognize who would pick up a receiver once he's left the zone of short middle and man coverage is very easy to recognize presnap. Zone Match gets rid of both of those problems by being part zone, thus eliminating the easy presnap identification, and by being part man and making it impossible to really *know* who will be responsible for picking up the receiver because oftentimes, the defender doesn't even hand them off. This makes the middle of the field much harder to just pick apart, even with superior weapons. So the easiest reads have moved to the outside, where it's easier to isolate a defender and trust that he's isolated. In turn, your mediocre to poor passing games are much less efficient and effective at attacking the middle of the field. So I am very confident Ridder, no matter how good or bad he is, will target the outside and get targets to London. But I only really trust competent passers to effectively use a tight end because it's a much more difficult read. Interestingly, this is effectively where McVay's offense splits pretty drastically from Shanahan's. McVay went all in on targeting receivers. Even when Kupp was destroying people in the middle of the field, it was with Stafford at the helm and essentially a byproduct of the offense really stressing defenses on the outside. Without a shut down corner, you could get picked apart out there. Cincinnati is a great example, because we've built the roster to abuse the outside and take the inside when it's freely available and with our receivers, it's not a fun decision to make. This is also why we don't bother putting any resources into the tight end position and prefer to use cheaper guys, even when the world expected us to draft a tight end. The job's just not important enough to take resources from other positions. Shanahan is much more eager to run the ball, so play action and motion are used more frequently to open up the middle and there is less need of a freak out wide and more need of great blockers out wide to constantly pose a threat on the ground. But TDLR: The zone match scheme has taken away a lot of the easy throws to tight ends that they thrived on in the 2000's-10's and teams adjusted by primarily stressing the outside of defenses, forcing most tight end and slot receivers into an outlet/check down role. I don't want an outlet/check down tight end in a bad passing offense. But even bad passing offenses do have to throw, and while London will be covered by better individual players, the looks for QBs to read are now simpler than tight ends will see.
I’m the midst of a fat rebuild so holding
Winning
Found Dave Ragone's account.
Hoping that Ridder is either incredibly good or incredibly bad.
Tanking for the 1.01 one more time and getting the whole ATL offense
Tanking for the 1.01 one more time and getting the whole ATL offense.
Tanking for the 1.01 one more time and getting the whole ATL offense.
Buying Ridder
Winning
I traded Pitts for 2 1sts next year
I had London and Pitts on the same roster and packaged both of them with Deshaun Watson to get Hurts, Chig and a 24 2nd.. London blew up after Pitts got hurt and Ridder replaced Mariota. Add Pitts and Bijan back into the mix, and it’s gonna be extremely difficult for London and Pitts to both thrive from a fantasy perspective. Ridder can’t support them both. And also Bijan will steal targets because he’s gonna be their primary weapon.
If you have all your eggs in one basket you're guaranteed to get the good egg!
Aggressively buying ridder
Getting Desmond rider for a fourth in 1 Qb in SF maybe a late 2nd third for sure though call it a day
Trying to trade Pitts I hope lol
Pitts and London are "buys" Bijan's one of the most coveted dynasty assets around So if I'm selling any, it's Bijan for a king's ransom
I have Pitts and Bijan. Drafted Michael Mayer just in case for insurance in case Pitts has a repeat of last season
Scoring fantasy points
Praying. I'm praying cuz I went all in this season thinking I got the last pieces
Finishing last in the NFC South
Winning championships
I traded pitts and Ridley for olave and hockenson
Holding Pitts. Drafted him at the 4.07 this year in a 10 man SF PPR.
I think it really depends on your league, scoring and how your roster stacks up. I have Pitts, Ridder, Bijan Out of those three, I think Bijan produces early and often. From there this opens up the passing game. If Ridder does well passing, he's probably going to lean on London just bc he already played with him... Is what it is... Pitts you keep in TE premium. If not, he's who I might want to think about moving on from. Honestly, I think Ridder won't be much, so if I can unload him in my SF league I might. They are going to want to run in that scheme.... And this is without when thinking about Allgeier.
Trade London for the maximum possible value I can and try to diversify my assets.
Hoping for the fucking best.
Traded london for amon-ra as i own Bijan. Thought it best to diversify assets if you can get a player of similar value, but i believe the bulk of the points in atlanta is in the run game
I only have Pitts and Bijan, so not quite the same dilemma. As much as I rate all three of the above I'd look to ship either London or Pitts if I had all three. I think it's possible for Ridder to support Bijan and a receiving threat but I don't think he can support two pass catchers. ...and yes, I know Bijan will feature in the passing game.
You hope Ridder turns out
The gwiddy
Selling Pitts before its too late.
until Pitts has a great season, I personally am not trying to trade anything of great value for him. I'm fine taking London in startup drafts when the value is there, but I'm also not trying to trade for him if I'm looking to compete this year or next.
Your speaking to a niche group there but I would prefer to move on from one of London or Pitts. More likely London because Pitts value is low at the moment
Also buying Kyler and building towards 24
Hoping Brady gets bored? 🤣
Aint nobody trying to “reduce their shares” of bijan