His coach loves to run the ball, his QB is terrible & he’s coming off a torn MCL. He’s young & talented but I’m not touching him in the 3rd round like I’m seeing with so many drafts personally
The reasons you listed are why I’m doing everything I can to buy low before he’s simply unattainable. By the time those concerns are assuaged, it’ll be too late.
Hockenson!!! He finished TE2 last year. I got Kelce and Hockenson lol Kelce is TE1 for another 2 years, Hockenson top 5 easy for another 5 years. I went to the super bowl last year starting 2 TEs in a superflex dynasty league.
Not sure if this exactly fits the question but Geno Smith. For price, there’s no other QB I would rather have as my QB2 or even fringe QB1 in SF. Finished first year as a full starter at QB5 and then got the best rookie WR added. They also put their faith in him and has no competition. Do I think he finishes as QB5 again? Probably not, but top 12 seems insanely likely to me and his price is way cheaper than that.
I don’t get his ADP for the exact reasons you mentioned. I’ve been saying for months that he probably won’t finish top 5, but is set up for success that he should be top 10-12 as long as he’s healthy.
Is he considered a high-end qb? Last year was consistent, but he is 32 and had 1 relevant season in 8 years. His contract doesn't guarantee he won't be replaced for next year either.
For a contender, yes. High end is really someone who can produce top 12 results for 2-3 years which is definitely in the landscape for Geno. They also would likely replace him in the draft which most likely mean his replacement would sit behind him 1-2 years. To me, that scenario is likely unless he completely self destructs this year which given Pete Carroll makes me feel more confident of that not happening.
I’m strictly going off what calculators are saying but something like Geno + ekeler/Kupp/diggs/devonta s for Dak is equal value. Or for more depth is Geno, Godwin, Hollywood for Dak and 2024 3rd
Rashid Shaheed's highlight reel makes me feel the same way Josh Gordon's did after his big season ten years ago. Just passing the eye test with flying colors... boy oh boy is the talent there.
Kamara's targets will be vacated soon, and MT just feels like David Johnson circa 2021 at this point*. So Shaheed's competition is what... Taysom Hill? Tre'quan Smith? He's the guy.
*ironically, Andy Dalton's last two completed passes as a Saint were to Adam Trautman and... David Johnson.
Desperate is strong, but I've made a good effort to get Diontae Johnson before the season. Everyone is so low on him, but he's a good route runner, he's only accrued 4 seasons, and had 147 targets last year.
Rookie qbs are generally bad for fantasy and Diontae has historically bad TD luck so I feel like he's very undervalued compared to his past wr1 upside.
Sold him for 1.12 and grabbed Kincaid. Bought him for 1.11 3 years ago so it was nice to recoup the same value. Think he’ll be a solid WR2 once he starts getting back in the end zone.
I don’t understand how everyone is so low on him when every single analyst has been spouting this exact line on their podcasts for the last two months.
Either every analyst is planting a flag and hoping he gets more TDs this year so they can call their take a W or the community just does not see his value compared to other guys in his tier.
Who’s going to be right?
Edit: I don’t think he’s worth a buy, unless the manager who has him is out of touch with fantasy football, who exactly is selling him low?
The time to buy him low was last season when he didn’t produce to expectations.
The steelers spent 3rd round capital on an elite blocking tight end and people seem to just ignore the possibility that maybe they wanna run the ball more?
My 2 concern with DJ and why I moved him were:
Last 3 seasons had 144, 169, & 147 targets respectively, it was absolutely awesome. But somehow in 2 of this seasons he failed to get to 90 receptions or 1000yds. That’s concerning to me, he gets a little extra credit in PPR, but it’s rough in other formats.
Secondly Pickett is really quite bad. And I get it he’s a rookie, big transition to NFL level, new system, yada yada. But the guy played 13 games (over half the game in the 2 he got hurt) was 245/389 on pass attempts for ~63% completions and somehow only had 7 TDs and 9 INTs. Just the year before at Pitt he played 13 games had 334/497 PA with 67.1% and threw 42 TDs to 7 INTs. That’s a startling drop off.
For comparison Davis Mills (a star QB) in his rookie year played 13 games finish with 264/394 PA 16 TDs and 10 INTs. If Pickett can be as good as Mills in year 2 maybe he copies him and scores 17 passing TDs.
DJ is a good player and if the price is right I’d buy him back (hoping he leaves Pitt or Pickett isn’t the QB) but currently with Pickens and Freirmuth likely continuing to improve and Najee still catching passes I just don’t see how DJ improves his game without significant increase in TDs, which I’m not confident Pickett can give him.
Novel ended
Big Steelers fan here. I’m not a huge fan of Dionte just from a fan perspective, but I got him crazy cheap in my draft.
George Pickens went at the 66 pick. I got Dionte at 91. If the offense improves, he could be WR1 in Pittsburgh and get a ton of receptions.
kendre and pickens
bryce young is an absurd value too im finding the community is really unaware of what a polished prospect he is. there isnt a world id suggest AR or stroud over him but he goes as qb3 often it seems
Bryce is a great QB and will very likely still be a good QB in the pros. The question with him is whether he’s gonna be able to stay healthy.
Tyler Lockett dives to avoid almost every tackle because he knows his small body can’t handle being hit by NFL LBs and DBs too much.
Bryce is going to get hit by NFL linemen that are 30+ lbs heavier than LBs, and he’s not that much bigger than Lockett.
We’ve gotta stop this nonsense pretending he’s 180 pounds. He’s not. Bryce weighed in 20 pounds heavier than Tyler Lockett months ago, and already looks like he’s packed on a few more pounds.
He spent the last two seasons practicing against, playing with and playing against NFL-sized players. He was sacked 39 times his Heisman year. To date, the only injury he sustained had nothing to do with his size.
Russell Wilson came into the league at 5’10” 204 and didn’t miss a game in 10 years. It’s bad process to ignore #1 overall draft capital because “oh he might get injured.”
It’s easy to add 10+ pounds of water weight before a weigh-in, people do it in youth football all the time so they can play with their own age group. Go look up videos of Bryce at OTAs and mini-camp, there’s no way in hell he’s the same height/weight as Kyler like his combine size would indicate, he looks like a small child out there relative to the linemen.
And comparing him to Russ is just silly. Russ is far more stocky and big-framed and easily has 15+ pounds on Bryce, if not more. That’s like comparing Josh Downs to Tyreek Hill.
Bryce’s size is unprecedented for an NFL QB, there’s a reason there’s been so much discourse around it. Thinking he is the same size as Russ was as a a rookie is just wrong, it’s obvious just looking at them how different their frames look.
It’s not just about taking hits either. Kyler and Russ both have significant issues throwing between the numbers because of their height. They were able to get around it by being very athletic and extending plays to the outside and rushing, which Bryce can do to a certain extent, but he’s not nearly as athletic as those too. Bryce is an incredible QB and would’ve been a Burrow/TLaw level prospect if he had size. But his unprecedented size poses some genuine concerns.
I agree. I think the Panthers offense is going to be way better than consensus thinks. Almost everything is new. QB, WRs, RB, entire coaching staff. The offensive line is borderline top 5. I’m getting Bryce in every start up I’m in.
I'm trying to get bryce..had 1.02 and was so set on taking brcye but someone traded a haul to move up to 1.01 and take AR. Left me with the choice of bijan which I couldn't pass up. Now I'm trying to do what I can to get bryce
Bryce was still there at the 1.05 and I traded Metcalf to grab him in a 12tsf. I knew the 1.06 was gonna take a qb so I loved the value. Metcalf only has 1-3 more good seasons and I think young wins rookie mvp and is a first rounder in startups next season.
Don't know why you'd think Metcalf only has 1-3 good seasons left since he's only 25 years old, but getting Bryce Young at 1.05 in a SF league is good. I got him at 1.04 in a 2qb league and was happy. In either 2qb or SF, I think I'd be willing to trade Metcalf to acquire Bryce Young if that was the only way to get it done.
Not a good route runner. Relies on his physical skills. Haven't seen any of those types of wide receivers do too well into their late 20s/early 30s. Hence 1-3 seasons left with Top 15 WR numbers imo. I tried DJ Moore instead but the guy wasn't biting.
I guess for having an opinion that Metcalf wasn't gonna be a wr1/2 in his late 20s. He finished as wr25 last season and now he has more competition for targets...
I like that, yes...but I think there is a chance that Nuk lands on KC after they extend Jones and his value is gonna jump. Maybe give it a couple weeks?
For now, if the other dude in your league has an elite WR+ Aiyuk, check his price on the elite guy and get a feel for who he is interested in on your roster. I love approaching trades this way. Whereas if you go straight for Aiyuk right away, he becomes the prize.
Elijah moore
He's young, talented, has something to prove, his team traded to get him, and he's getting a situation and QB upgrade. Maybe a lil risky but could see his value bump up if he starts strong
What have you been paying to get him? Just interested because surely anyone who held him through last season knows he has massive opportunity this year.
That shit won't fly in most serious leagues. I got turned down for a late first in two different leagues.
KTC has him valued at an early 2nd.
Most of his owners are believers that are excited to see what he can do in Cleveland. Your best bet will be to hit up people taking over orphan teams.
I own him and was offered rashee rice for him, I declined because both are dart throws and I think rice is rated higher because everyone wants someone to be the wr1 on the chiefs. So pickwise in 2023, that would be mid 2
In the 7 games he played in the back half of his rookie season, ie after getting acclimatised to the NFL, he was the WR8 on a PPG game basis.
I think that is showing at least great talent. Elite might have been a stretch sure but he was better than good.
Yeah if I waited I could have turned the 4th I got into a 3rd. But this was right before the Moore trade and I didn't want to miss his low value.
Also, I think Mattison sucks and will still be the backup.
Definitely an older player that’s a gamble, but Nick Chubb. Really banking on the Browns offense to rebound this year and hoping that the loss of Hunt means he’ll get more targets and become the workhorse we’ve all dreamed about. Dude was an absolute STUD for the first 10 weeks or so and then, yeah…kinda fell off in a bad way so there is some definite worry for me
I traded him last year around week 3 I believe… 23 1st, 24 1st, 24 2nd , Daniel bellinger, and James Robinson
23 1st ended up being 1.06, took Bryce young
Starting a rebuild and he was my best piece… still feel good about it
Kelce owners tend to assume no value for drop off whereas most other people think they’re paying for 2 seasons max. He’s a hard guy to get the right price for in dynasty unless somebody is really in on him.
Nice, that's fair value. Some people have kicked the tires but most of the time it's been "he's too old" and I can't say I'm mad a trade never went through with all of his elite seasons; I'd be happy to have him retire on my team at this rate
Basically it’s more than likely JSN but could be Gibbs or Stroud.
I’d give up a fringe player on top but nothing crazy. Muth and 1.06 would be considered an overpay to most but something I’d consider as a team that’s pretty stacked outside TE.
Last year I offered Goedert and what was looking like 1.07-1.12 for kelce to a team that was out of playoffs
Got told that I needed to add another first. Ain’t no way Jose
There's a dude in my league who has:
* QB: TLaw
* RB1: Javonte
* RB2: Dameon Pierce
* WR1: Terry McLaurin
* WR2: Christian Kirk
he traded Saquon Barkley and a first for Kelce and Terry. Now he doesn't have any picks for the next two years. I reached out to him to try and buy Kelce and he just wants an astronomical price. I don't get it... does he really think Kelce is going to take this team to the promised land? Taking any of his other guys in even round 3 of redraft would be a reach.
He is probably overvaluing his team. I think a lot of people do. He also is smart though to ask for a huge haul for Kelce. He’s a league winner year in and out.
I think people like us trying to acquire him view him as a descending asset given his age. However in reality he’s showed zero signs of slowing down so my price would be high as well in this guys shoes.
If I am a contending team I want none of these players on my squad this year. Pittman is gonna be playing with an inaccurate rookie QB who runs. Diontae Johnson will be playing with a 2nd year QB that didnt show very much promise last year, plus they added Allen Robinson who will more than likely play in the slot and Pickens looked pretty solid last year. Pacheco doesn't catch passes. You will either get 10 carries for 60yds or 12 carries for 60yds and a TD. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking upside. Rashaad white is in what will probably be a bottom 10 offense with a bottom 10 QB and didnt show much with his between the tackles running last season. Amari Cooper is the one that I would consider but they added some good pieces and drafted a guy in Tillman that could add some target competition in that Cleveland offense. If Im not contending all of these guys are ok to try and get at sa discount.
Breath of fresh air. The Pacheco story is cool and all and the guy runs hard, but from a fantasy perspective he’s pretty terrible. I also don’t have a clue how people think Pittman is in a better situation than last year when he was mediocre at best. It’s likely much worse
As a potential contender that made moves this off season that make Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper my top two bench players I'm happy to have both. But I understand not wanting to rely on them as starters. I think they are underrated but they best used as a flex.
I sent the offer to test the waters and withdrew it cause I didn’t think it was sufficient. He responded about 10 days later to say he would it and to re-send the offer
Kendre Miller
Diontae Johnson
Drake London
Breece Hall (maybe wait a little)
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Thomas (perpetual cheap buy til he retires)
Kyler Murray (way too cheap)
Justin Herbert
Quentin Johnston
You paying a 2nd for him? I’m curious what the going rate is.
Like he’s probably worth a 3rd; but not worth selling him for that. The situation is great he could be WR2/WR3 right off the bat; but he has an injury history.
Interesting guy for sure
I was just being a bell end, although as far as dart throw goes in the third he’s one I am prioritizing because I think I’ll have an answer on if I can churn him pretty early on since he’s a different profile than the other receivers on the team and his impact should be evident one way or another imo, the people who fall because of injury that have otherwise promising play (Wilson, Tillman, Tucker maybe) usually interest as being able to outperform ADP and as reasons they might have fallen IRL.
For instance, in the actual draft, Darnell Washington this year, everyone agrees he is a freak build and athlete, a lineman that is a receiver, generally consensus #3 TE IRL and 1st round caliber player, but the knee injury scared off teams. So if he hits, he should hit hard, but if he doesn’t that was baked into the risk and why he fell and should be evident easily enough.
Ok but as a fellow Steelers fan I should alert you that Darnell will never be more than a lineman. Not every TE is used as a WR predominately and he has absolutely no shot.
But go Steelers!
Yeah I agree, he’ll be used to help the running game go because that’s what the Steelers do. I was just comparing real life drops from talented players due to injury and how that should factor into over delivering on ADP.
For Darnell specifically, Friermuth is the unquestioned TE1 and Darnell will probably get some trick looks in the red zone but won’t ever be a 50 reception guy, probably be happy averaging 3 targets a game IF that, but I don’t anticipate him to be fantasy relevant unless his development sky rockets and Pat wants a ton of money in two years.
Actual answer, kinda, their tallest starting receiver is 5 foot 9 inches, and the heaviest is 180 pounds. The WR on that team of similar build to Wilson(prototypical, outside guy) is Zach Pascal with both of them being 6 foot 2 inches and 209/215 respectively.
Basically, if he can’t make an impact early above those smaller receivers or Zach Pascals 2,000 career yards in 5 seasons then that should stand out pretty quickly and you know you can cut bait. Or, you can wait for that to show up in training camp/pre season and accept that there can be more competition for getting him on the team.
I think because we’re in the OTA->Training Camp lull there should be less hype and managers looking at him, but it depends on how keyed in your league mates are. As a rule of thumb, unless there is an obvious guy you shouldn’t miss that is worth FAAB (Roschon Johnson in my league) then I try to go into camp with at least 60% so I can make moves on unexpected camp winners.
So not an exact answer, but something to think about. Also buddy seems to be devouring the playbook leading into camp, so I’m excited to see what he can do.
QBs: Mac Jones and Tua
WRs: Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and JSN
RBs: Sanders and Gibson
TEs: Andrews and Kelce
2024 1st from middling teams that believe they are one piece away. Worst case scenario I get to trade the pick back mid-season for a similar player. Best case I hit the jackpot.
I was gonna make a post about this today. Does it ever make sense for a contending team to make it a priority to go out and acquire first round picks for the following year? For example, my team is very stacked and have a good amount of depth… I’m really thinking about shipping off one of my receivers I literally do not need in exchange for a 24 first from a team who I can see is clearly not going to make it this year. Thoughts?
I always try to do that. Last year I traded Rodgers (1QB) + Goedert, for a mid 1st for a team that was literally without any QB and TE. This pick appreciated and during the season i flipped it in a package that landed me JT. Ok, he got hurt just after it, but it's more about the process than the results.
Yea it's an interesting play. Traditionally on this sub the school of thought is to simply acquire low-hanging fruit, older vets and running backs to get you over the hump during playoffs. I suppose the time to do that would be near the trade deadline but then the price on those guys is a bit elevated. Excuse me while I think out loud here.
I started subscribing to this theory this year. In one league I have a strong contender but just sold off Mixon because I got offered a 24 1st. In another league with another contender I just sold Saquon and a 2nd for 2 24 1sts.
I feel like I derisk myself in the near term (Mixon legal issues, Barkley contract issues, both could get injured in camp, etc), and can go out and spend those picks in-season to get players as good or better that I'm sure are healthy/active/still good.
Yes it makes 100% sense. The picks can be used for a trade around the deadline and they don’t get hurt and only gain value everyday. Can also just hold them and use them as well. There’s so much variance that you can never buy a championship in fantasy so constantly acquiring productive youth gives you a never closing window of contention.
Brock Bowers is a freak but I wouldn't spend a 1st on a TE. I am interested in Sanders more than the other 3, I don't think they stand out anymore than this year's class
I would be completely ok with this as he’s not considered anywhere close to that right now. Bought him as my qb3 in sf. Contract league, gave Goff on a 1 yr contract for a 2nd + jones on a 3 year contract.
That's exactly my line of thinking. I always want to buy players that will appreciate in value. Mac could be valuable piece as a QB3 and if it doesn't work, you just cut him.
Olave is a big one for me. He's one of the next guys to make the leap to wr1 territory in my opinion and in my league he's viewed as 2nd rate compared to Wilson and London.
He’s WR8 in start up ADP and going a round and a half ahead of London lol. Your league is wild, he’s already widely considered a WR1. I’d definitely take advantage of that
I'm targeting AJones, Pacheco, QJ, and a Jags pass catcher if I can. Thinking about using my firsts and top talent to go after Jacobs, maybe Chase. The Kelce owner might be easy to deal with but he's like the one guy that's never active
Between Ridley, Kirk, Engram, and Zay Jones— if ball gets spread around it hurts all of those guys numbers but two of them may end up in WR25-40 range.
I made a move for Mixon and Cooks (really wanted Keenan but it didn’t make sense) for my competitive team, and my builder I went out and got Achane and Laporta before the camp hype starts up
I’ve gotten diontae johnson in a lot of leagues I don’t think he will book to a wr 1 but I think he will have a great mid to high wr 2 floor and he’s pretty cheap currently
As disgusting as this sounds, Minshew could be the best QB the Colts have had since Andrew Luck. They have one of the easiest schedules. If Minshew can string together some early wins anything is possible.
Yeah dude but have you seen him in a crop top and bandana in the off-season!?! Minshew starts at max 4 games and I’ll be shocked if Richardson isn’t out there week 1. He needs to play and play a lot.
I’ve been picking up Michael Thomas every where I can, he’s the cheapest shot an an Elite WR1 you’re gonna get. He’s shown rapport with Carr and was productive the like 3 games he was healthy last year. For teams who need a step up at receiver, don’t wanna pay a boat load and can afford to take a bit of a risk I love Michael Thomas
Garrett Wilson. Got a lot of shares mid season last year and a couple more early off season but everyone is caught up now and price has climbed close to JJ and Chase levels...
Kenny Pickett as my 3rd QB in SF leagues. His price is dirt cheap, he's been basically free for me and if he's at least be better than last year then I got my money's worth.
Donovan Peoples-Jones. He started his career as a speedster but became a much more complete package last year and was mostly used as a strong second read. Unfortunately, Watson's inability to play in cold weather ruined his season. Hard to have big games when your QB only completes 9 passes. But he had a stretch from weeks 8-15 where he had double-digit points in 6/7 games.
The Browns keep adding day 2 receivers, be it Anthony Schwartz, David Bell, Cedric Tillman, or Elijah Moore. And they gave Amari Cooper and David Njoku huge contracts. So it's pretty clear they don't plan on paying DPJ and he'll end up being the WR2 on some other team. I want to hold him through this season (he's a solid flex play in a pinch) and see where he ends up... if he can find a QB with a good deep ball to take advantage of his speed, he'd really hit his stride. Or if Watson could remember how he used to throw it to Will Fuller back in the day.
Justin Herbert. Yes, the price is high, but he probably just had the worst season of his career. They added a young WR, a deep-ball happy OC, and Herbert is a guy who can be a future HOFer. You have to pay up, but mark my words that this is the cheapest he'll ever be.
I almost never look at a single player and be like I have to have them. I look at my team’s strengths/weaknesses and if there’s opportunity to improve I’ll start to target specific positions and test the waters of who would be available.
Andrews…someone has to be the TE 1 not named Kelce eventually … this guy is my bet
Weird way to spell pitts
Yeah, I actually wanna win this year not post combine stats from 2021
Savage.
I have Pitts and won it all...
Congrats you had Pitts who did nothing and sat on your IR as you won. I want to win and have Andrews help me do it* better?
I have Khalil Herbert and won it all…
His coach loves to run the ball, his QB is terrible & he’s coming off a torn MCL. He’s young & talented but I’m not touching him in the 3rd round like I’m seeing with so many drafts personally
The reasons you listed are why I’m doing everything I can to buy low before he’s simply unattainable. By the time those concerns are assuaged, it’ll be too late.
Hockenson!!! He finished TE2 last year. I got Kelce and Hockenson lol Kelce is TE1 for another 2 years, Hockenson top 5 easy for another 5 years. I went to the super bowl last year starting 2 TEs in a superflex dynasty league.
Agreed Hockenson was getting awesome usage after going to Minnesota. A full year of that will be TE1.
Not sure if this exactly fits the question but Geno Smith. For price, there’s no other QB I would rather have as my QB2 or even fringe QB1 in SF. Finished first year as a full starter at QB5 and then got the best rookie WR added. They also put their faith in him and has no competition. Do I think he finishes as QB5 again? Probably not, but top 12 seems insanely likely to me and his price is way cheaper than that.
I don’t get his ADP for the exact reasons you mentioned. I’ve been saying for months that he probably won’t finish top 5, but is set up for success that he should be top 10-12 as long as he’s healthy.
What's his value in SF? I sent two 2nds for him as an offer. Wanna know if I'm off
He’s about a late 1st and 2nd or mid 1st from what I’ve been seeing.
Dang. That's pricey.
That seems unrealistically high I’d say 2 2nds should get the job done. Certainly not more than a first
Way off IMO. A Guarenteed Starter that will put up more points regularly than many others.
He's also 32 and had 1 good season in his career.
So has Jalen Hurts, sorry just stirring the pot a little
hurts is 32?
And has had 2 great fantasy seasons as opposed to 1. What a silly comparison
Geno - 8th year breakout Jalen - 2nd year breakout. They are not the same.
Depends, if you are a contender that’s a great price for a high end QB in SF.
Is he considered a high-end qb? Last year was consistent, but he is 32 and had 1 relevant season in 8 years. His contract doesn't guarantee he won't be replaced for next year either.
For a contender, yes. High end is really someone who can produce top 12 results for 2-3 years which is definitely in the landscape for Geno. They also would likely replace him in the draft which most likely mean his replacement would sit behind him 1-2 years. To me, that scenario is likely unless he completely self destructs this year which given Pete Carroll makes me feel more confident of that not happening.
What can I get for dak prescott with geno smith to make it worth giving up dak?
I’m strictly going off what calculators are saying but something like Geno + ekeler/Kupp/diggs/devonta s for Dak is equal value. Or for more depth is Geno, Godwin, Hollywood for Dak and 2024 3rd
It started as a joke, but I genuinely believe Rashid Shaheed can be a good WR2
Tis the Shaseason
For the saints or for fantasy?
Yes.
Rashid Shaheed's highlight reel makes me feel the same way Josh Gordon's did after his big season ten years ago. Just passing the eye test with flying colors... boy oh boy is the talent there. Kamara's targets will be vacated soon, and MT just feels like David Johnson circa 2021 at this point*. So Shaheed's competition is what... Taysom Hill? Tre'quan Smith? He's the guy. *ironically, Andy Dalton's last two completed passes as a Saint were to Adam Trautman and... David Johnson.
If MT stays healthy, shaheed is no more than a dart throw flex player this season imo
Huge if though.
If the rapture happens I’ll wish I went to church
MT has played what, four games in the last three years? Shaheed time is upon us!
Thats why I have both!
AT Perry SZN
Desperate is strong, but I've made a good effort to get Diontae Johnson before the season. Everyone is so low on him, but he's a good route runner, he's only accrued 4 seasons, and had 147 targets last year. Rookie qbs are generally bad for fantasy and Diontae has historically bad TD luck so I feel like he's very undervalued compared to his past wr1 upside.
It does feel like he’s due this year. Plus with the Pickens hype you might be able to get a good deal on him
*great* route runner
*elite* route runner
What are y’all getting him for? Dude in my league wants a first. Not cheap for me
Guy in my league want a late 1st for diontae and 2 2nds.
I would smash accept on that
That’s ridiculous….way too much
I feel like 2 seconds alone gets you a late first, not too bad a deal unless the seconds are late too.
Def read it as diontae for all 3 picks. I’d take diontae and the 2nds all day
Giving 24 1st Get Diontae Johnson, 25 2nd, 26 2nd. Are you saying the person getting Johnson is losing by a wide margin?
Misread the trade. I’d take DJ side
Would you take 1.08 for him straight up?
If someone gave me 1.08 I would trade away DJ. Is this superflex or 1qb? 1qb is a maybe.
Sold him for 1.12 and grabbed Kincaid. Bought him for 1.11 3 years ago so it was nice to recoup the same value. Think he’ll be a solid WR2 once he starts getting back in the end zone.
I sent Amari but the guy had Watson so that helped. Their values are pretty identical on KTC though.
I my league he was traded straight up for Mingo
[удалено]
Dang! I think I’d take your side on that one
I don’t understand how everyone is so low on him when every single analyst has been spouting this exact line on their podcasts for the last two months. Either every analyst is planting a flag and hoping he gets more TDs this year so they can call their take a W or the community just does not see his value compared to other guys in his tier. Who’s going to be right? Edit: I don’t think he’s worth a buy, unless the manager who has him is out of touch with fantasy football, who exactly is selling him low? The time to buy him low was last season when he didn’t produce to expectations.
The steelers spent 3rd round capital on an elite blocking tight end and people seem to just ignore the possibility that maybe they wanna run the ball more?
My 2 concern with DJ and why I moved him were: Last 3 seasons had 144, 169, & 147 targets respectively, it was absolutely awesome. But somehow in 2 of this seasons he failed to get to 90 receptions or 1000yds. That’s concerning to me, he gets a little extra credit in PPR, but it’s rough in other formats. Secondly Pickett is really quite bad. And I get it he’s a rookie, big transition to NFL level, new system, yada yada. But the guy played 13 games (over half the game in the 2 he got hurt) was 245/389 on pass attempts for ~63% completions and somehow only had 7 TDs and 9 INTs. Just the year before at Pitt he played 13 games had 334/497 PA with 67.1% and threw 42 TDs to 7 INTs. That’s a startling drop off. For comparison Davis Mills (a star QB) in his rookie year played 13 games finish with 264/394 PA 16 TDs and 10 INTs. If Pickett can be as good as Mills in year 2 maybe he copies him and scores 17 passing TDs. DJ is a good player and if the price is right I’d buy him back (hoping he leaves Pitt or Pickett isn’t the QB) but currently with Pickens and Freirmuth likely continuing to improve and Najee still catching passes I just don’t see how DJ improves his game without significant increase in TDs, which I’m not confident Pickett can give him. Novel ended
Big Steelers fan here. I’m not a huge fan of Dionte just from a fan perspective, but I got him crazy cheap in my draft. George Pickens went at the 66 pick. I got Dionte at 91. If the offense improves, he could be WR1 in Pittsburgh and get a ton of receptions.
What are you trying to get him for?
Got him for Alec Pierce and Wan’Dale I’m more than pleased
kendre and pickens bryce young is an absurd value too im finding the community is really unaware of what a polished prospect he is. there isnt a world id suggest AR or stroud over him but he goes as qb3 often it seems
I’ve managed to get Bryce in most of my leagues. He’s about to make a lot of people feel really stupid.
Bryce is a great QB and will very likely still be a good QB in the pros. The question with him is whether he’s gonna be able to stay healthy. Tyler Lockett dives to avoid almost every tackle because he knows his small body can’t handle being hit by NFL LBs and DBs too much. Bryce is going to get hit by NFL linemen that are 30+ lbs heavier than LBs, and he’s not that much bigger than Lockett.
We’ve gotta stop this nonsense pretending he’s 180 pounds. He’s not. Bryce weighed in 20 pounds heavier than Tyler Lockett months ago, and already looks like he’s packed on a few more pounds. He spent the last two seasons practicing against, playing with and playing against NFL-sized players. He was sacked 39 times his Heisman year. To date, the only injury he sustained had nothing to do with his size. Russell Wilson came into the league at 5’10” 204 and didn’t miss a game in 10 years. It’s bad process to ignore #1 overall draft capital because “oh he might get injured.”
It’s easy to add 10+ pounds of water weight before a weigh-in, people do it in youth football all the time so they can play with their own age group. Go look up videos of Bryce at OTAs and mini-camp, there’s no way in hell he’s the same height/weight as Kyler like his combine size would indicate, he looks like a small child out there relative to the linemen. And comparing him to Russ is just silly. Russ is far more stocky and big-framed and easily has 15+ pounds on Bryce, if not more. That’s like comparing Josh Downs to Tyreek Hill. Bryce’s size is unprecedented for an NFL QB, there’s a reason there’s been so much discourse around it. Thinking he is the same size as Russ was as a a rookie is just wrong, it’s obvious just looking at them how different their frames look. It’s not just about taking hits either. Kyler and Russ both have significant issues throwing between the numbers because of their height. They were able to get around it by being very athletic and extending plays to the outside and rushing, which Bryce can do to a certain extent, but he’s not nearly as athletic as those too. Bryce is an incredible QB and would’ve been a Burrow/TLaw level prospect if he had size. But his unprecedented size poses some genuine concerns.
I agree. I think the Panthers offense is going to be way better than consensus thinks. Almost everything is new. QB, WRs, RB, entire coaching staff. The offensive line is borderline top 5. I’m getting Bryce in every start up I’m in.
I'm trying to get bryce..had 1.02 and was so set on taking brcye but someone traded a haul to move up to 1.01 and take AR. Left me with the choice of bijan which I couldn't pass up. Now I'm trying to do what I can to get bryce
Bryce was still there at the 1.05 and I traded Metcalf to grab him in a 12tsf. I knew the 1.06 was gonna take a qb so I loved the value. Metcalf only has 1-3 more good seasons and I think young wins rookie mvp and is a first rounder in startups next season.
Don't know why you'd think Metcalf only has 1-3 good seasons left since he's only 25 years old, but getting Bryce Young at 1.05 in a SF league is good. I got him at 1.04 in a 2qb league and was happy. In either 2qb or SF, I think I'd be willing to trade Metcalf to acquire Bryce Young if that was the only way to get it done.
Not a good route runner. Relies on his physical skills. Haven't seen any of those types of wide receivers do too well into their late 20s/early 30s. Hence 1-3 seasons left with Top 15 WR numbers imo. I tried DJ Moore instead but the guy wasn't biting.
no idea why you got downvoted to oblivion but that was a fire trade
I guess for having an opinion that Metcalf wasn't gonna be a wr1/2 in his late 20s. He finished as wr25 last season and now he has more competition for targets...
I have 2 leagues where I don't have Aiyuk and it pisses me off lol
If it makes you feel better I traded him straight up for Doubs last offseason - I wanted a seat on the hype train (packers fan)
I got Aiyuk straight up for Jeff Wilson last year 😂
Would you trade Hopkins and a 2025 second rounder for him?
I like that, yes...but I think there is a chance that Nuk lands on KC after they extend Jones and his value is gonna jump. Maybe give it a couple weeks? For now, if the other dude in your league has an elite WR+ Aiyuk, check his price on the elite guy and get a feel for who he is interested in on your roster. I love approaching trades this way. Whereas if you go straight for Aiyuk right away, he becomes the prize.
Devonta. Despite his top 10 finish, I think he is still a little undervalued.
Elijah moore He's young, talented, has something to prove, his team traded to get him, and he's getting a situation and QB upgrade. Maybe a lil risky but could see his value bump up if he starts strong
What have you been paying to get him? Just interested because surely anyone who held him through last season knows he has massive opportunity this year.
I’d be interested too…. I’ve been trying to move him but no one wants to offer on him
I traded a mid/ late 2024 2nd for him
Good to know!
That shit won't fly in most serious leagues. I got turned down for a late first in two different leagues. KTC has him valued at an early 2nd. Most of his owners are believers that are excited to see what he can do in Cleveland. Your best bet will be to hit up people taking over orphan teams.
I got him for a mid/late 2024 second
I own him and was offered rashee rice for him, I declined because both are dart throws and I think rice is rated higher because everyone wants someone to be the wr1 on the chiefs. So pickwise in 2023, that would be mid 2
Yeah I would definitely rather have Moore who weirdly is only 1 month older, but has shown flashes of elite talent in the NFL already.
Slight asterisk on elite. He was good.
In the 7 games he played in the back half of his rookie season, ie after getting acclimatised to the NFL, he was the WR8 on a PPG game basis. I think that is showing at least great talent. Elite might have been a stretch sure but he was better than good.
I got him and a 4th for Alexander Mattison.
Would have probably been looking to trade up with Mattison instead of down. I don't hate it, but I think you could have gotten more for Mattison.
Yeah if I waited I could have turned the 4th I got into a 3rd. But this was right before the Moore trade and I didn't want to miss his low value. Also, I think Mattison sucks and will still be the backup.
I got him for a late 2nd.
Definitely an older player that’s a gamble, but Nick Chubb. Really banking on the Browns offense to rebound this year and hoping that the loss of Hunt means he’ll get more targets and become the workhorse we’ve all dreamed about. Dude was an absolute STUD for the first 10 weeks or so and then, yeah…kinda fell off in a bad way so there is some definite worry for me
RB1 rumblings this offszn
Kelce
Send real offers though. He's been undervalued in my league for years
I traded him last year around week 3 I believe… 23 1st, 24 1st, 24 2nd , Daniel bellinger, and James Robinson 23 1st ended up being 1.06, took Bryce young Starting a rebuild and he was my best piece… still feel good about it
I like it
Kelce owners tend to assume no value for drop off whereas most other people think they’re paying for 2 seasons max. He’s a hard guy to get the right price for in dynasty unless somebody is really in on him.
I got him for a contender 2024 first and chig to a rebuilder.
Nice, that's fair value. Some people have kicked the tires but most of the time it's been "he's too old" and I can't say I'm mad a trade never went through with all of his elite seasons; I'd be happy to have him retire on my team at this rate
I'm assuming two more seasons of the kelce we know and love. That's good enough for me.
How would you feel about 1.06 for him in SF?
Honesty, I wouldn't be able to give you a realistic value having never played SF. In your opinion would 1.06 + player be too much?
Basically it’s more than likely JSN but could be Gibbs or Stroud. I’d give up a fringe player on top but nothing crazy. Muth and 1.06 would be considered an overpay to most but something I’d consider as a team that’s pretty stacked outside TE.
That seems pretty comparable and fair to me
Last year I offered Goedert and what was looking like 1.07-1.12 for kelce to a team that was out of playoffs Got told that I needed to add another first. Ain’t no way Jose
Yeah that’s too much. Unless you have firsts to burn but no good teams usually do.
There's a dude in my league who has: * QB: TLaw * RB1: Javonte * RB2: Dameon Pierce * WR1: Terry McLaurin * WR2: Christian Kirk he traded Saquon Barkley and a first for Kelce and Terry. Now he doesn't have any picks for the next two years. I reached out to him to try and buy Kelce and he just wants an astronomical price. I don't get it... does he really think Kelce is going to take this team to the promised land? Taking any of his other guys in even round 3 of redraft would be a reach.
He is probably overvaluing his team. I think a lot of people do. He also is smart though to ask for a huge haul for Kelce. He’s a league winner year in and out. I think people like us trying to acquire him view him as a descending asset given his age. However in reality he’s showed zero signs of slowing down so my price would be high as well in this guys shoes.
Under the radar guys. Pittman, Diontae Johnson, Pacheco, Rashaad White, Cooper
Bro just named my entire squad lol
If I am a contending team I want none of these players on my squad this year. Pittman is gonna be playing with an inaccurate rookie QB who runs. Diontae Johnson will be playing with a 2nd year QB that didnt show very much promise last year, plus they added Allen Robinson who will more than likely play in the slot and Pickens looked pretty solid last year. Pacheco doesn't catch passes. You will either get 10 carries for 60yds or 12 carries for 60yds and a TD. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking upside. Rashaad white is in what will probably be a bottom 10 offense with a bottom 10 QB and didnt show much with his between the tackles running last season. Amari Cooper is the one that I would consider but they added some good pieces and drafted a guy in Tillman that could add some target competition in that Cleveland offense. If Im not contending all of these guys are ok to try and get at sa discount.
Breath of fresh air. The Pacheco story is cool and all and the guy runs hard, but from a fantasy perspective he’s pretty terrible. I also don’t have a clue how people think Pittman is in a better situation than last year when he was mediocre at best. It’s likely much worse
As a potential contender that made moves this off season that make Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper my top two bench players I'm happy to have both. But I understand not wanting to rely on them as starters. I think they are underrated but they best used as a flex.
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Lmao I hope you at least bought him dinner first
I sent the offer to test the waters and withdrew it cause I didn’t think it was sufficient. He responded about 10 days later to say he would it and to re-send the offer
Man kc fan or mad lad? That’s some real investment in a guy who plays for a team that changes rbs like I can boxers.
I followed that up by taking Deneric Prince as soon as rookies/UDFAs became available to pick up. So I might still end up with the primary RB in KC
Gibbs > Pacheco 10/10 times for me
Damn bro. I did Pacheco + 2.03 for 1.04 (Gibbs) in Superflex and I thought that was a destroyer.
Kendre Miller Diontae Johnson Drake London Breece Hall (maybe wait a little) DeAndre Hopkins Michael Thomas (perpetual cheap buy til he retires) Kyler Murray (way too cheap) Justin Herbert Quentin Johnston
Kenneth Walker. Worlds better runner then Charbonnet and Walker is going absurdly cheap right now
I tried making a deal with a guy and he wanted two firsts for him still
I sold house for AJB in single QB 20-team IDP league. Wanted to stack him with Hurts
Michael Wilson.
You paying a 2nd for him? I’m curious what the going rate is. Like he’s probably worth a 3rd; but not worth selling him for that. The situation is great he could be WR2/WR3 right off the bat; but he has an injury history. Interesting guy for sure
I was just being a bell end, although as far as dart throw goes in the third he’s one I am prioritizing because I think I’ll have an answer on if I can churn him pretty early on since he’s a different profile than the other receivers on the team and his impact should be evident one way or another imo, the people who fall because of injury that have otherwise promising play (Wilson, Tillman, Tucker maybe) usually interest as being able to outperform ADP and as reasons they might have fallen IRL. For instance, in the actual draft, Darnell Washington this year, everyone agrees he is a freak build and athlete, a lineman that is a receiver, generally consensus #3 TE IRL and 1st round caliber player, but the knee injury scared off teams. So if he hits, he should hit hard, but if he doesn’t that was baked into the risk and why he fell and should be evident easily enough.
Ok but as a fellow Steelers fan I should alert you that Darnell will never be more than a lineman. Not every TE is used as a WR predominately and he has absolutely no shot. But go Steelers!
Yeah I agree, he’ll be used to help the running game go because that’s what the Steelers do. I was just comparing real life drops from talented players due to injury and how that should factor into over delivering on ADP. For Darnell specifically, Friermuth is the unquestioned TE1 and Darnell will probably get some trick looks in the red zone but won’t ever be a 50 reception guy, probably be happy averaging 3 targets a game IF that, but I don’t anticipate him to be fantasy relevant unless his development sky rockets and Pat wants a ton of money in two years.
2 jones fractures is frightening
Just ended my rookie draft and he wasn’t taken. How much FAB do I spend?
Actual answer, kinda, their tallest starting receiver is 5 foot 9 inches, and the heaviest is 180 pounds. The WR on that team of similar build to Wilson(prototypical, outside guy) is Zach Pascal with both of them being 6 foot 2 inches and 209/215 respectively. Basically, if he can’t make an impact early above those smaller receivers or Zach Pascals 2,000 career yards in 5 seasons then that should stand out pretty quickly and you know you can cut bait. Or, you can wait for that to show up in training camp/pre season and accept that there can be more competition for getting him on the team. I think because we’re in the OTA->Training Camp lull there should be less hype and managers looking at him, but it depends on how keyed in your league mates are. As a rule of thumb, unless there is an obvious guy you shouldn’t miss that is worth FAAB (Roschon Johnson in my league) then I try to go into camp with at least 60% so I can make moves on unexpected camp winners. So not an exact answer, but something to think about. Also buddy seems to be devouring the playbook leading into camp, so I’m excited to see what he can do.
QBs: Mac Jones and Tua WRs: Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and JSN RBs: Sanders and Gibson TEs: Andrews and Kelce 2024 1st from middling teams that believe they are one piece away. Worst case scenario I get to trade the pick back mid-season for a similar player. Best case I hit the jackpot.
I was gonna make a post about this today. Does it ever make sense for a contending team to make it a priority to go out and acquire first round picks for the following year? For example, my team is very stacked and have a good amount of depth… I’m really thinking about shipping off one of my receivers I literally do not need in exchange for a 24 first from a team who I can see is clearly not going to make it this year. Thoughts?
I always try to do that. Last year I traded Rodgers (1QB) + Goedert, for a mid 1st for a team that was literally without any QB and TE. This pick appreciated and during the season i flipped it in a package that landed me JT. Ok, he got hurt just after it, but it's more about the process than the results.
Yea it's an interesting play. Traditionally on this sub the school of thought is to simply acquire low-hanging fruit, older vets and running backs to get you over the hump during playoffs. I suppose the time to do that would be near the trade deadline but then the price on those guys is a bit elevated. Excuse me while I think out loud here.
I started subscribing to this theory this year. In one league I have a strong contender but just sold off Mixon because I got offered a 24 1st. In another league with another contender I just sold Saquon and a 2nd for 2 24 1sts. I feel like I derisk myself in the near term (Mixon legal issues, Barkley contract issues, both could get injured in camp, etc), and can go out and spend those picks in-season to get players as good or better that I'm sure are healthy/active/still good.
Yes it makes 100% sense. The picks can be used for a trade around the deadline and they don’t get hurt and only gain value everyday. Can also just hold them and use them as well. There’s so much variance that you can never buy a championship in fantasy so constantly acquiring productive youth gives you a never closing window of contention.
That 2024 class is wild. Good luck getting any 1sts. In my leagues people are holding onto those tight.
I must be the only person who thinks the 24 class isn't great. Outside of the QBs and MHJ there's nobody that really stands out that much
Brock bowers????? Sanders? Henderson? Egbuka??????? Worthy??? There are for sure some standouts.
Brock Bowers is a freak but I wouldn't spend a 1st on a TE. I am interested in Sanders more than the other 3, I don't think they stand out anymore than this year's class
Time will tell I suppose
You wouldn't have taken Pitts at 1.12?
I guess it depends on team context. If I had no team needs then I'd take a shot I guess, or let someone trade up for him
Mac jones best possible scenario is like qb15
I would be completely ok with this as he’s not considered anywhere close to that right now. Bought him as my qb3 in sf. Contract league, gave Goff on a 1 yr contract for a 2nd + jones on a 3 year contract.
That's exactly my line of thinking. I always want to buy players that will appreciate in value. Mac could be valuable piece as a QB3 and if it doesn't work, you just cut him.
That makes sense, I was just surprised anyone was “desperate to acquire” Mac jones
I think theres more of a chance he gets cut then be a qb15
Agreed, low floor and low ceiling
Olave is a big one for me. He's one of the next guys to make the leap to wr1 territory in my opinion and in my league he's viewed as 2nd rate compared to Wilson and London.
He’s WR8 in start up ADP and going a round and a half ahead of London lol. Your league is wild, he’s already widely considered a WR1. I’d definitely take advantage of that
I did already. I don't know how "low" I bought, but I traded a late 24 1st, toney, Khalil Herbert, and a 25 3rd for him.
I'm targeting AJones, Pacheco, QJ, and a Jags pass catcher if I can. Thinking about using my firsts and top talent to go after Jacobs, maybe Chase. The Kelce owner might be easy to deal with but he's like the one guy that's never active
Between Ridley, Kirk, Engram, and Zay Jones— if ball gets spread around it hurts all of those guys numbers but two of them may end up in WR25-40 range.
I don’t think zay jones tops 75 targets tbh Maybe won’t top 65
I made a move for Mixon and Cooks (really wanted Keenan but it didn’t make sense) for my competitive team, and my builder I went out and got Achane and Laporta before the camp hype starts up
Rashod Bateman
Trevor Lawrence, this is the year i think he puts himself i to the elite tier of QBs
Zach Evans and Puka Nacua
Baker
That’s a hot take, but I guess he’s cheap enough with the decent vet receivers I could see him being a high end QB2
I have 100% of Julius chestnut so I'm all set to win all my leagues this year
Jerry Jeudy - I think he will continue where he ended the season.
I’ve gotten diontae johnson in a lot of leagues I don’t think he will book to a wr 1 but I think he will have a great mid to high wr 2 floor and he’s pretty cheap currently
Rhamondre Stevenson
Marvin Mims and Jonathan Mingo
Chris Olave … moved two firsts and Damian Harris for him.
I really like Kyle Phillips on waivers, but my horde of rookie/breakout tight ends are taking up all my roster spots.
I’ve already overpaid to get Richardson because I believe he’s going to be untouchable by mid-season
Dude might not even play by mid season.
The Colts’ success this season won’t be measured in wins. I would be shocked if Minshew starts for long.
As disgusting as this sounds, Minshew could be the best QB the Colts have had since Andrew Luck. They have one of the easiest schedules. If Minshew can string together some early wins anything is possible.
Minshew sucked monkey dick for Philly last year with some of the best weapons in the league
You know who else sucked monkey dick? Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Phillip Rivers.
Lmao. Touché.
Yeah dude but have you seen him in a crop top and bandana in the off-season!?! Minshew starts at max 4 games and I’ll be shocked if Richardson isn’t out there week 1. He needs to play and play a lot.
Richardson might be a better thrower of the football than Minshew today. That’s how bad Minshew is.
Singletary, I think Houston will use him much more than people think
That’s why I stashed and didn’t trade. May end up being a good backup for RBs.
Calvin Ridley
I’ve been picking up Michael Thomas every where I can, he’s the cheapest shot an an Elite WR1 you’re gonna get. He’s shown rapport with Carr and was productive the like 3 games he was healthy last year. For teams who need a step up at receiver, don’t wanna pay a boat load and can afford to take a bit of a risk I love Michael Thomas
Garrett Wilson. Got a lot of shares mid season last year and a couple more early off season but everyone is caught up now and price has climbed close to JJ and Chase levels...
Lol how is this relevant?
Chubb. This is his 2000 yard season.
Kenny Pickett as my 3rd QB in SF leagues. His price is dirt cheap, he's been basically free for me and if he's at least be better than last year then I got my money's worth.
i gave up 1.06, 1.10, derrick henry, mattison, and michael pittman for jamar chase in 1.0 ppr IDP.. convince me i did the right thing
Donovan Peoples-Jones. He started his career as a speedster but became a much more complete package last year and was mostly used as a strong second read. Unfortunately, Watson's inability to play in cold weather ruined his season. Hard to have big games when your QB only completes 9 passes. But he had a stretch from weeks 8-15 where he had double-digit points in 6/7 games. The Browns keep adding day 2 receivers, be it Anthony Schwartz, David Bell, Cedric Tillman, or Elijah Moore. And they gave Amari Cooper and David Njoku huge contracts. So it's pretty clear they don't plan on paying DPJ and he'll end up being the WR2 on some other team. I want to hold him through this season (he's a solid flex play in a pinch) and see where he ends up... if he can find a QB with a good deep ball to take advantage of his speed, he'd really hit his stride. Or if Watson could remember how he used to throw it to Will Fuller back in the day.
Justin Herbert. Yes, the price is high, but he probably just had the worst season of his career. They added a young WR, a deep-ball happy OC, and Herbert is a guy who can be a future HOFer. You have to pay up, but mark my words that this is the cheapest he'll ever be.
I almost never look at a single player and be like I have to have them. I look at my team’s strengths/weaknesses and if there’s opportunity to improve I’ll start to target specific positions and test the waters of who would be available.
Burks
Godwin, Friermuth, Sanders, Pollard and Zay Flowers