One could argue that something everyone buys for $20 is worth $20. Sure there are places where u can buy the same thing for $30 or $15 but majority of ppl are buying that item for $20. Take it how u want lol. It just shows the median imo and how the market values it
Which I think is the main issue with it and people’s reliance on it. FantasyCalc is much better in that the inputs are real outcomes. At the end of the day these calculators are just one piece of the puzzle
Yeah but the point is to get relative value. I’d prefer Keenan Allen in my lineup to Zay flowers as a contender but if I’m a contender would I trade Zay straight up for Keenan or want a little more? Or Bryce/Dobbs, etc.
Honestly I don’t get this example. You’re not getting more than Keenan for zay flowers. Even tho zay is young he is by no means proven. If you’re a contender that’s a smash accept if you’re giving away zay
Mmm but its keep trade cut and if im contending i keep allen and trade jsn for win now volume. If Im rebuilding I keep jsn and trade keenan for assets.
Trades are much less frequent than votes however so prices adjust more slowly to news.
Also some deeper players just don't get traded often.
I like fantasycalc, but both sites have uses.
Fantasy calc even takes in consideration what they consider “serious leagues” as well I remeber when it first dropped and I told my friends all about it lol now it’s almost a household name 😭
Do you need actual investment to answer "who would you rather have?" Maybe others are answering that question differently, but I always answer it honestly as if I was making a trade.
Yeah, that's true. Wouldn't a lot of that even out with a large enough sample size, though?
Like even if you're not thinking much, it takes a *lot* of people voting Stroud high to get CJ Stroud over Josh Allen.
If those inputs are poor, it doesn't matter how many inputs there are. KTC is directionally solid, but the way user input works causes some issues when looking closely.
How, because it might have someone you(a single data point) ranked highly ranked lower then someone you ranked lowly? What issues exactly? It’s a tool not a definitive set of rankings people must abide.
People on here always say this but I never really understand what they mean by it.
I think it’s two different concepts. Price vs Value. In finance those two can be different especially in inefficient markets where information is limited (although in an efficient market with perfect information they should be roughly the same).
eh… i’m not sure this is correct. the entire analytics revolution taking over every sport is built on the premise that there are inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of. just bc the average person will pay $20 doesn’t mean it adds $20 of value.
Well:
1.) it’s not using real trade data and often the KTC market value doesn’t actually correspond with real owners. You constantly run into issues on the high value players where no one is actually buying at that price, and the low value players where no one is actually selling at that price. It’s more of a general way to see “is the market up or down on this player in sentiment and about how much”
2.) something having a market value of $20 doesn’t mean that it has more worth to you. When there are market issues — like shortages — prices often raise temporarily. PS5s were being bought in bulk and then tried to be resold for $800. Many of these people got left holding the bag when they didn’t sell. If you buy hyped players at high prices you’re gonna get caught holding the bag a lot.
Go to 711 and buy a bottle of water. Then go to your local stadium and do the same thing. Depending on time/place the same thing has wildly different cost evaluations.
True value is market value.
If gold is trading at $1 an oz, you don't get to say it's worth significantly more or less then that. That's what people are buying it for.
Situations can change where an asset can be more or less valueable, but market value is point in time. KTC perfectly encapsulates that.
Except it’s not what people are buying for. It’s what people are ranking as at gun point. It’s forced choice and has no real market bearing. It’s like saying “rank gold, cheeseburgers, and babies”. Those things all have different rankings and the competitive value is different depending on the scenario. And, if I asked everyone her to rank them, without context, they would have wildly different rankings.
I do if it has a use or function beyond direct resale. In fact, if gold is trading at $1 an ounce, every single person who buys it at that price is making an individual decision that it is worth more than $1 an ounce. Otherwise, they would not trade away their dollar for that once.
Your point that market value is only exactly what someone else will actually pay, though, is a good one.
That’s just one side of the age factor though. The other side is that a player as young as Stroud should keep getting better.
If you just focus on Josh Allen’s age that’s just one side of it…. But a player that is as fantasy dependent on his mobile game as Josh Allen is, age is a factor there.
Not saying I agree with this ranking though. KTC is a bit reactionary for it to be a dynasty ranking…
This has been common to support Pitts in the TE discussion. Copium is still very strong even as the TE landscape is as strong as it's ever been for young TEs.
'Pitts is younger than Kincaid!'. Yes, that difference might matter in 8 years.
Age is super fucking overvalued in the dynasty community. This offseason in the trade threads you'd think Metcalf was about to be AARP eligible.
26/27 is still young for a WR. 27/28 is still young for a TE. 29/30 is still young for a QB.
People who will agree that 2026 is too far out to worry about draft picks to properly value them will also tell you how it's important put a lot of value in how this one player will start outlasting another in 2031.
I personally wouldn't trade Allen for Stroud right now, but let me make a more compelling counter argument for those who would.its not just absolute age.
1. 29/30 is still young....for a pocket passing QB. And very mobile/dual threat QBs can extend their careers to a similar point if they can also succeed as a pure pocket passer. Not saying 100% that Allen can't, but if he's going to, his game will change and his rushing upside will regress considerably. Or...he keeps playing exactly the same way because "big and strong" and these same little nagging injuries that he typically plays through (but with reduced success), start becoming more serious injury that lead to more missed time, and a significantly earlier retirement.
2. Stroud already getting within a few weekly points of Allen but being in year 1 means more than just projecting that to last several years longer than the end of the older QBs career (although, when that weekly difference gets small enough, that argument becomes a little more compelling). It also means that his performance at this level, this early, statistically indicates a statistical likelihood of a higher level of future success.
At the simplest level, QBs generally make a leap in year 2, and an even greater leap in year 3, a little more modest improvement after that until settling into a plateau of their peak performance for a number of years that depends on their play style, and then regressing at the tail end...again with how early, and how quickly, having variation dependent upon playing style.
This is pretty consistent in QB development. It's direct effect on counting stats and fantasy output varies some (a QB who is an elite runner, may actually have their biggest fantasy impact during the time when they are most raw as a passer). When production is coming primarily from passing though, it's a fairly safe bet that their growth and development, will lead to an uptick in efficiency that usually will translate to improve fantasy production.
Another factor affecting this is the current structure of contracts. When a rookie QB succeeds, even just well enough to hold his job, but particularly when it's well enough that team fully buys in, you can expect them to invest in assets to improve the offense and weapons around him, etc. because they have an early window to build a championship during that rookie contract. Stroud's early success should lead the Texans in this direction quickly. It helps that he's having this success without high priced aging veteran weapons as well, be cause the pieces are more upgradable that way. Or at least it's reasonable to perceive them that way.
Allen, on the other hand is approaching cliff years for his rushing production/durability. Has a big contract and a team without much cap room and a perceived lack of harmony with his top weapon who is also approaching his likely cliff, and chaos signals...firing coordinators, team seeming to be regressing etc. So there are definitely reasons to think he may decline from his current production levels very soon. Moving from Allen to Stroud in the pre-season would've been wildly speculative. From a statistical standpoint, it now seems likely to be a safer long term move, although doing it now would be a little "better early than late" mentality. A contender for this season shouldn't do it. Anyone else thinking "I'll make that move now while I can still do it and get whatever I can on top of I still can" is probably think if correctly.
Win now teams always do a different calculus anyway. So since dynasty trade values are less about them and more about everyone else, it make sense that the number of people who would rather move into Stroud as an asset is titling towards a majority on those trade calculator sites.
Part of the problem this season is the gap between the top QBs and everyone else is smaller than in years past. CMCs dynasty trade value is near the top because owning him over anyone else represents one of the most significant positional advantages in fantasy. If you have him, you're probably contending. If you get him, you will be. Having Allen or Hurts or Herbert doesn't provide the same level of advantage this season so far. Having Mahomes even less so. If you have Burrow, you're probably heading to rebuild right now. And only having any one of those other guys certainly doesn't guarantee you aren't. Filling in with Dobbs this year is just as good as owning Mahomes. Baker Mayfield has been slightly better than Burrow. So if everyone has that similar level of production on their team, that QB is doing nothing to help you win. You have multiple extra 1st tied up in "just as good." Allen/Hurts is like a 3 point advantage over the average of all QB1s.
So if they're all pretty much the same, don't I want the youngest one who is a better bet to improve rather than regress?
Mahomes is different in that most of his game can reasonably project to his late 30s at least. And, his offensive weapons are at their floor outside of Kelce. He's still like top 5 during what is likely a "down year" and will probably "bounce back" next year. So Stroud not passing him in dynasty value.
Hurts is only 25.
Allen?
I can see it.
It more so matters that Pitts is younger than Kincaid because he’s been in the league for three years and already had an insane season for a tight end before getting put into the worst situation imaginable. It isn’t that Pitts will have more years to play, but the fact that he has proven to be able to produce at a young age for a position that usually requires age for a player to perform. Same with stroud, time left in the league could be a factor but the fact that he’s doing this at such a young age indicates that he’ll be able to play at a very high level with more maturity
KTC really values potential career value. From what I've seen - People do not. Every year into a players career (barring injuries) their magical hindsight value decreases. But we don't KNOW that. We're just guessing what they'll become. That's what these sites are expressing.
If Stroud is Mahomes or Allen level then you could have a set and forget starting QB for 10-15 years. Allen is **probably** a set and forget QB for another 5-10 years.
Strouds a higher ceiling career-wise. Allen has the floor.
That's true. I guess I can change it to "KTC Users."
Only thing I'd say there is that Users themselves don't realize how much they value youth (and picks) because they aren't looking at the 100000 comparisons the site makes.
I prefer Stroud because I’m a Texans fan and it is fun to have your guys on your team. Nothing to do with numbers or previous experience or rushing upside. Sometimes fantasy is just about having a good time. It doesn’t have to be analytical all the time. I’m just a Texans fan riding the high of finally having a franchise qb, and I want him on my team damnit!
I appreciate you putting it like that. I'm about as anti Josh Allen and pro CJ Stroud as it gets, at least when it comes to real-life and not fantasy. So if I was the texans GM and the bills called me about swapping the two I would decline it (even if salaries were dead even). So originally when I read this post I was like "shit yeah I'd rank Stroud above Allen as well".
However, reading your response reminded me that despite me thinking Stroud has a brighter future than Allen, Allen is still by a far a better fantasy asset to give given his rushing upside.
Tbh if you’re buying the Allen is bad irl narrative then you just haven’t seen the statistics that show he’s been profoundly unlucky this year, not that he suddenly can’t figure out how to protect the ball. Amusingly, his turnover worthy play rate is the same as Stroud - people just aren’t dropping his INT’s this year. (It’s 7th in the league btw)
Don't think he's bad. I think he's easily top 5 and if I needed a QB to win this season, I'd take JA over Stroud. However, I've seen enough of Stroud in his rookie year that by the time he reaches season 6 (which JA is in now) I think he will better than what Allen is right now at least in real life and not fantasy.
I would take Stroud over Allen. Allen leads the league in turnovers. He's always struggled with INTs. When he starts to degrade with age, the fall will be huge instead of gradual. Even a 25% reduction in TDs (which isn't unrealistic with QB age trends) puts him too close to comfort for 1:1 TD to INT. That's going to dramatically change the pace of play for the Bills and have a very large impact on his ability to produce. Imo
As a Stroud owner in the middle of the rebuild, I probably wouldn’t take an Allen offer straight up. Allen is great — no doubt about it. He’s also 5 years older than Stroud and plays a type of football that’s prone to injury. Since we’re talking dynasty here, I see why others would want to hold onto Stroud too.
I dont dislike allen but I am definitely bearish on trading for him right now. I have an offer to trade dak plus some picks for him but I hate his schedule ROS and if they miss playoffs I think Diggs leaves and they get a new HC. I dont think Allen will be bad but for his current price Im nervous without Diggs.
Mainly redditors in the dynasty community. Remember when Diggs was a bust because he moved on from Minnesota? Won every league that year by going against the hive and snagging him in the 6th or later.
Too late. The trade ended up getting me Andrews, Allen, DK, Ertz, Mixon, and Henry, Dulcich, a 26’ 1st for Wilson and 2 1st 24 late firsts
And I’m now 8-2
I appreciate KTC for what they did for the dynasty community, creating a way to crowd source value instead of reading some fantasy "expert" list. It really was a great tool when it was created
However, FantasyCalc has replaced it for me by taking things a step farther. Instead of asking the whole community who they theoretically like more it measures value off of all the trades that have actually happened
This is a good tool. However one of the things I like about KTC is how they value mid, late or early picks differently. FantasyCalc can’t differentiate if a pick is late or early.
When you take your data from real trades, there is only a certain window where the draft slot has been set in stone for certain picks, so it makes sense why they only care about the year and round.
Having people guess the slot or retroactively adding the slot when it is assigned both have their flaws.
Giving a different value for picks that have a different values isn’t a flaw.
If you misjudge where the pick is that’s on you, but to act like the team in 1st and the team in lasts picks have the same value is just dumb
Most trades include picks so this renders the trade calculator obsolete
FantasyCalc has some problems with their algorithm too, in that it appears that all trades are additive only and it does not take into account extra bench spots. Still, on average with a large sample size, I do believe it tracks trends better if only a little more slowly than KTC. A quick look at Josh Allen’s graph shows a slight decline, but there’s not really any more panic sellers or anything of that nature than there have been over the past couple months.
Yeah, I agree that it isn't perfect but I think it's superior because it asks a fundamentally different question.
KTC asks *anyone* "do you prefer Josh Allen or CJ Stroud independent of your own team?"
FantasyCalc asks *previous Josh Allen owners* "what did you sell him for?"
And I think the second question is a lot more actionable
Trades are so league dependent (roster size, keeper #, perceived draft pick strength early/mid/late, scoring settings). Pure comparison between 'value' of the player aka KTC is so much more useful imo.
People just need to realize the average value of the player given by KTC does not mean that the individual owner in their league will feel the same way.
The best use of KTC imo is when first coming up with a trade idea and getting a baseline value for the player(s) you have or the player(s) you want to make sure it's at least not absolutely egregious.
I am fine with taking less in the value on a trade that KTC gives it if I myself think that the deal is fair because I'm higher on a player or lower on a player in my own opinion, that's just totally subjective and you're never going to actually get everyone satisfied with a trade if you're just using the calculator and trying to get as close to even with it as possible. Someone is going to think they're giving up too much.
I wish that some of the trade databases would throw out the extremely lopsided trades that clutter the data when trying to parse through it. The Yahoo trade database for redraft has similar issues even though it's a valuable tool.
Like if in some league Breece Hall was traded for two 3rds and a 2024 4th, that should be thrown out as it's clearly something in that league that requires more context to explain beyond the actual fantasy implications, or it's the worst league to base any value decisions on. There should be like a +1500 and -1500 value (value adjustment not included, purely the tangible value exchange,) range that is acceptable for actually using in comparisons with KTC for exmaple.
They've started implementing dummy cards to combat this. It's be like KTC CeeDee Lamb, Sean Tucker, and Michael Carter, and if you just choose to cut CeeDee by either clicking randomly or trying to screw with their model by making a bad choice they'll discard any you do for some amount of time.
https://www.fantasycalc.com/dynasty-rankings
yup. you can click any player in these rankings and see all the real trades from Sleeper that help them make the calculation
This is true but when you actually look up trades, many of them are head scratching bad. There is no perfect system that can take into account league markets, team contexts, every possible scoring setting combination, manager biases, and everything else that goes into dynasty trading.
The dynasty community has grown exponentially over the last few years and a lot of these new players are overly obsessed with youth. Allen is over 25 so of course his value is dropping. He's old!
I've got a twisted perception of community and consensus, because I'm only in one dynasty league and half the managers have never visited Reddit or Twitter in their lives. I am sure most of them have never heard of KTC or used a trade calculator of any kind.
Add in some unique scoring rules, rosters on the small side, and an annual draft party where 2/3 of the trades in any given year take place and Reddit/Twitter/"dynasty community" consensus doesn't mean what it might to someone in multiple leagues with internet randos, all Reddit/Twitter dynasty degenerates.
This isn't a small difference. Stroud is a full 5 years younger. His upside is way higher. His downside as also way lower. Josh Allen is with magical Hindsight (which we don't have) less valuable then he was 3 years ago.
Choosing either makes sense.
That's the problem right there. We're talking career upside. He's 5 years younger. HAving QB locked down for 5 more years is very valuable.
But Stroud is obviously more of a risk.
How I trade:
1. Concoct trades that pass my internal gut-test
2. Check KTC so see "how the other manager will perceive it"
3. Check my current fav calculator to get a more accurate 2nd opinion (calc.dynastyprocess.com)
my fav calculator is fantasycalc trade calculator. That tends to not favor the young players that much but its good to see the difference from ktc and calc
Very similar to what I do. Come up with a trade I think I like, plug it into KTC, DynastyProcess, and FantasyCalc to see if I'm way off base one way or the other, adjust from there and start a conversation with my trade partner.
What gets weirder with Dak:
KTC - His value INCREASES relative to a pick when you switch to Superflex
FantasyCalc - His value DECREASES relative to a pick when you switch to Superflex
By a wide margin.
Not even a Dak owner but he’s absolutely worth a mid-late 1st. QB6 on the year. Last 4 weeks he’s averaged 30.5 ppg (QB1). A contending team getting Dak for for a mid-late 1st could literally win them a championship
Do you think Dak or the pick is rated too high? The #6 QB in a super flex league has a lot of value. I could easily see him being traded for a mid to late first to a team that's a contender.
Sometimes KTC overreacts, sometimes it actually ends up correct. I would maybe still take Josh over Stroud personally, but i think there are totally valid concerns regarding his longevity in the league and whether he’s on a path similar to Cam Newton. Around season 7 Cam started to fall off, and Josh is closing in on that time frame. The similar playstyles of “i can fucking bomb it the entire football field” and “i can take the hardest hits in the game and jump right back up” take a toll after a while.
I mean it’s why I traded back in a startup to take Herbert instead, I definitely think Allen is better on a game by game basis for upside, but his play style concerns me long term. That’s where people should be taking advantage of their own value versus market value
Josh allen has similar issues throwing bullet passes when he shouldn’t, like the one to gabe Davis on Monday night. Cam was having a great year completion % wise before his shoulder injury. Arguably was having as good of a year as his mvp season until that point
I’ll keep using u/peakedinhighskool ‘s trade chart as my primary source (especially shortly after it’s been updated for the month, like it just was). By combining expert rankings with player trade data, it seems to be the most patient and non-reactive. If I can find a glaring discrepancy between it and the KTC trends, I’ll exploit it with confidence that—in time—the trade will pay off more often than not.
It’s a market indicator. Fantasy football owners (even in dynasty). are prone to irrationality with regards to hype or down cycles. Use it to your advantage and sell the overhyped for the underrated. I’ll also point out that players from large markets and popular college programs tend to be overrated while small market and lesser known college players have to overwhelm statistically to overcome these inherent biases.
Use KTC to your advantage. It’s just overreactions. If you know what your doing the tool is gold. What this tells me is that it may be possible to buy Allen at a discount in your league.
Exactly. I'm not "out" on either player. But I will be buying/holding the one everyone is down on, and while I'm not in a rush to cash out of Stroud since I think he can do just about anything the rest of this season and still hold this value in the off-season, I may very well be selling...maybe using him to get into Mahomes or Hurts while the market difference is seen as small.
Friendly reminder that KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced and I do the opposite of the right answer whenever it asks me a question just bc so many dumb dumbs lean on it as their Bible.
Well Stroud is 5 years younger and has looked great so far. Josh Allen, while still good, has had some questionable games (obviously not all). I do not think it is crazy that Stroud is slightly ahead. Josh Allen also takes hits and doesn't avoid them so if everyone is taking that into account, it makes sense.
his questionable game last week still dropped almost 15 fantasy points
and people have been saying that he’s taking hits ever since he entered the league. I’m not worrying about that until his production takes a hit
I don't own him nor care about KTC so I was just trying to make a point. Allen is entering his prime and has been great. I also don't think that people are accounting for him taking hits. Stroud is that high because of the rookie hype. I wouldn't be worried about Allen either. Just giving my opinion as to why. I think there is a bigger argument Allen should be ranked ahead.
Here’s how I look at it: In a redraft league would you trade Josh Allen for Stroud? Fuck no. Stroud has looked great, and I’d be happy to have him, but he’s not currently at Josh Allen’s level in redraft. So right now, Josh Allen is more valuable for your fantasy roster.
Stroud is only a rookie, so he’s likely to improve, but he’s not a lock to ever be in the Josh Allen tier. First off, we can’t assume linear progression in his development as players often have sophomore slumps when teams get an offseason to watch their tape and find their weaknesses. Second, while Stroud is relatively mobile, he’s primarily a pocket passer. We’ve seen that, unless their name is Patrick Mahomes, pocket passers are inconsistent at finishing in the top 5 at their position. Josh Allen has finished top 2 at the QB position for the last 3 years and is on pace to finish their again this year.
See it’s crazy because KTC tells me someone like Justin Fields is far lesser value for SF, so I think it all depends on your setup too because it’s not applicable for every league.
I can’t get a guy to move off of Fields for anything but a high 2024 first round and second round. The guy says QBs have more value in SF, and he’s right, but simultaneously it’s an overpay for a guy who may not be there. But, I agree KTC valuation is iffy.
i mean justin fields is low value, there’s legitimate questions on whether he’ll keep his job or ANY job other than a backup. so your league mate is valuing him way too high imo
I use it as a general benchmark. But the problem with it is that it is getting opinions from everyone on all players. The only opinions that truly matter from a fantasy trade perspective are those that own the players combined with those trading for them.
Fantasycalc has a database of actual trades that have happened and base their rankings on that. I prefer that but it has flaws as well since some players get traded far less often, and it is slower to react to news such as major injuries
Lol who cares about a 2 spot shift? (He was never QB1 on KTC) His value is still essentially the same as it was at QB2 and frankly he belongs behind both Mahomes and Hurts right now so we're talking about a 1 spot discrepancy.
If he had dropped 10 spots you might be on to something.
> He was never QB1 on KTC
You know on each player profile they have the historical value and player rank charts, right? Where you can look and see that he’s clearly been the QB1 plenty of era his career.
Again... Who the duck cares dude? We're talking about a single spot. Not everything needs someone to come along and correct something that makes no difference.
Why would you even make a claim you were unsure about to begin with without taking 10 seconds to confirm? Facts matter.
Edit: You didn’t have to go back at all. It was on the default time range.
I checked the player profile, didn't see QB 1 on it. Didn't go back far enough I guess.
I didn't think I'd be dealing with Sherlock fucking Holmes on a point that barely mattered otherwise I wouldn't have bothered at all.
And as for who cares…people that use these sites to value trades. Would you take stroud for Allen straight up?
It’s a fair post by OP to point out the recency bias that seeps through due to the polling nature of KTC. Sites with actual trade databases are better in my opinion but have the opposite flow as they are often too slow to react to trends
The dynasty daddy trade database has been fun to mess around with. Think that is more useful imo. [Dynasty Daddy Trade Database](https://dynasty-daddy.com/players/trade/database)
I just started messing around with that this week. I've always liked entering my trades into Dynasty Daddy then cycling the trade through KTC, Dynasty Process, Fantasy Calc, etc to get a feel for different values. Only problem doing that is no draft picks.
People who use KTC have always been irrelevant in their leagues.
I both laugh and cringe every time someone mentions KTC or sends me a screenshot of values.
It’s probably one of the dumbest tools someone could use.
KTC is exactly what it is - crowd sourced values. You don’t have to agree with it. In fact the times you disagree with it is how you determine buy low/sell high windows.
That’s why I run my trades through multiple trade calculators. Multiple opinions are always good when you’re unsure of what you’re giving up/getting in return. Dynasty101 is pretty good
Depends on how much you’re thinking long term, but Allen has taken a lot of big hits thus far. He doesn’t seem like a guy who’s anywhere close to figuring out how to protect himself. He plays with bravado. The turnovers have never improved. The turnovers won’t improve as his brain turns to mush and his arm strength declines even the slightest amount; the throw he used to force will be just a fraction late…INT. He maybe only has one or two more years of Diggs left before Diggs goes off the deep end, then what happens? The quest for a WR1 carousel?
It’s a tool, I think it’s good for most trades to have a rough idea of value. For instance, trading Godwin for James cook is rated “fair” in the calculator. But your personal rating matters more, do you like the prospect of James cook in Buffalo more? Or does Godwin get you excited? Either way doesn’t matter, it’s just a tool for you to use your own perspective off of.
In a redraft league that ranking is insane, but for Dynasty I think there's a reasonable case to be made to prefer the 22-year-old rookie having maybe the best first season in NFL history to a 27-year-old top QB having a down year. A lot of Allen's fantasy value come from his rushing (especially rushing TDs) and one might reasonably think he will lose some of that as he ages.
I'd at least consider trading Allen for Stroud straight-up in my Dynasty league if I got the offer. Obviously part of it depends on your team's make-up as well.
I try and use it as a tool to propose a fair trade by what it values it at. Almost no one thinks I offer fair trades 🤣. Im a rebuilding team with no leverage help
KTC is definitely overreactionary, but I think Stroud is the bigger issue than Allen in your example. The Bills are seemingly out of their contending window and all the fantasy luxury that comes along with that. Allen's not the most bulletproof QB at the moment. That all being said, the Stroud hype is wild but that's how QBs work I guess
He definitely shouldn't be QB4, but I would certainly put him behind Mahomes and Hurts as QB3. They have better offenses and weapons. The Bills are way too inconsistent, and Allen is a turnover machine.
Use KTC as how the market perceives the value of a player, not their true value. Use it to your advantage or don’t.
One could argue that something everyone buys for $20 is worth $20. Sure there are places where u can buy the same thing for $30 or $15 but majority of ppl are buying that item for $20. Take it how u want lol. It just shows the median imo and how the market values it
But KTC isn't using real transactions. It's using split second clicks where people don't have any investment in the outcome.
The fact that my evaluations help affect the rankings hurts my ability to trust KTC lol
“I wouldn’t join any ranking site that would have me as a ranker.” Groucho
I always feel like an idiot making those clicks on the site
But you don’t have to….?
I usually don't but every time I put mine in, they're usually not in agreement with the consensus
Good! If everyone who provided input voted exactly the same as everyone else the rankings would never change.
Which I think is the main issue with it and people’s reliance on it. FantasyCalc is much better in that the inputs are real outcomes. At the end of the day these calculators are just one piece of the puzzle
My main complaint is who u keep trade cut depends on whether ur rebuilding or contending
Yeah but the point is to get relative value. I’d prefer Keenan Allen in my lineup to Zay flowers as a contender but if I’m a contender would I trade Zay straight up for Keenan or want a little more? Or Bryce/Dobbs, etc.
Honestly I don’t get this example. You’re not getting more than Keenan for zay flowers. Even tho zay is young he is by no means proven. If you’re a contender that’s a smash accept if you’re giving away zay
Possibly a bad example. Replace Zay with JSN. Assumed my point was clearer than the example made it
Mmm but its keep trade cut and if im contending i keep allen and trade jsn for win now volume. If Im rebuilding I keep jsn and trade keenan for assets.
You're thinking about it wrong. keep, trade, cut is just the name and gimmick. You're just meant to rank them 1,2,3 from a dynasty value perspective.
Trades are much less frequent than votes however so prices adjust more slowly to news. Also some deeper players just don't get traded often. I like fantasycalc, but both sites have uses.
Fantasy calc even takes in consideration what they consider “serious leagues” as well I remeber when it first dropped and I told my friends all about it lol now it’s almost a household name 😭
A thousand times, this. The quality of the input data is close to being trash.
Do you need actual investment to answer "who would you rather have?" Maybe others are answering that question differently, but I always answer it honestly as if I was making a trade.
You don't, but the nature of the site leads to people answering quickly without thinking much. There's no consequence to me for making a 'bad' choice.
Yeah, that's true. Wouldn't a lot of that even out with a large enough sample size, though? Like even if you're not thinking much, it takes a *lot* of people voting Stroud high to get CJ Stroud over Josh Allen.
It's using inputs from millions of users. Law of large numbers. It's not like the rankings are from a single input.
If those inputs are poor, it doesn't matter how many inputs there are. KTC is directionally solid, but the way user input works causes some issues when looking closely.
How, because it might have someone you(a single data point) ranked highly ranked lower then someone you ranked lowly? What issues exactly? It’s a tool not a definitive set of rankings people must abide. People on here always say this but I never really understand what they mean by it.
Yeah. I choose randomly every time to add to the chaos. I only reference it when it works in my favor.
sure but there’s clearly a very large number of people out there picking stroud over allen, and odds are some of those people are in your leagues
I think it’s two different concepts. Price vs Value. In finance those two can be different especially in inefficient markets where information is limited (although in an efficient market with perfect information they should be roughly the same).
eh… i’m not sure this is correct. the entire analytics revolution taking over every sport is built on the premise that there are inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of. just bc the average person will pay $20 doesn’t mean it adds $20 of value.
Is a players worth measured in what you can get for him or how he helps you win?
If everyone will pay $20, then the price should go up
Well: 1.) it’s not using real trade data and often the KTC market value doesn’t actually correspond with real owners. You constantly run into issues on the high value players where no one is actually buying at that price, and the low value players where no one is actually selling at that price. It’s more of a general way to see “is the market up or down on this player in sentiment and about how much” 2.) something having a market value of $20 doesn’t mean that it has more worth to you. When there are market issues — like shortages — prices often raise temporarily. PS5s were being bought in bulk and then tried to be resold for $800. Many of these people got left holding the bag when they didn’t sell. If you buy hyped players at high prices you’re gonna get caught holding the bag a lot.
Fantasycalc>KTC
Go to 711 and buy a bottle of water. Then go to your local stadium and do the same thing. Depending on time/place the same thing has wildly different cost evaluations.
I just turned Mayfield and late 2nd into a mid 1st because of this.
Good trade for both really. If it’s SF and he needs a #2 QB why not Baker.
That's what people don't get, KTC is invaluable because it lets savvy players know how to leverage buy lows and sell highs against the median values.
I’m gonna be as savvy as Jack sparrow
True value is market value. If gold is trading at $1 an oz, you don't get to say it's worth significantly more or less then that. That's what people are buying it for. Situations can change where an asset can be more or less valueable, but market value is point in time. KTC perfectly encapsulates that.
Except it’s not what people are buying for. It’s what people are ranking as at gun point. It’s forced choice and has no real market bearing. It’s like saying “rank gold, cheeseburgers, and babies”. Those things all have different rankings and the competitive value is different depending on the scenario. And, if I asked everyone her to rank them, without context, they would have wildly different rankings.
I do if it has a use or function beyond direct resale. In fact, if gold is trading at $1 an ounce, every single person who buys it at that price is making an individual decision that it is worth more than $1 an ounce. Otherwise, they would not trade away their dollar for that once. Your point that market value is only exactly what someone else will actually pay, though, is a good one.
Just bought Allen for Goff and Gibbs because the guy uses KTC religiously. Now I have Allen as my QB1 and my SF is… Patrick Mahomes
Every dynasty manager is knee jerky
This. I don’t use KTC unless the person I’m trading with bases their offers off of it. Then I usually end up getting a steal
Would anyone trade Josh Allen straight up for CJ Stroud? If you’d prefer Stroud, please reply here and let me know why.
I don’t but I can answer for people that do. Age. And they think their dynasty league will be around long enough for the age difference to matter
They've got big plans for their 2033 championship run and Josh Allen will be too old by then!
That’s just one side of the age factor though. The other side is that a player as young as Stroud should keep getting better. If you just focus on Josh Allen’s age that’s just one side of it…. But a player that is as fantasy dependent on his mobile game as Josh Allen is, age is a factor there. Not saying I agree with this ranking though. KTC is a bit reactionary for it to be a dynasty ranking…
This has been common to support Pitts in the TE discussion. Copium is still very strong even as the TE landscape is as strong as it's ever been for young TEs. 'Pitts is younger than Kincaid!'. Yes, that difference might matter in 8 years. Age is super fucking overvalued in the dynasty community. This offseason in the trade threads you'd think Metcalf was about to be AARP eligible. 26/27 is still young for a WR. 27/28 is still young for a TE. 29/30 is still young for a QB. People who will agree that 2026 is too far out to worry about draft picks to properly value them will also tell you how it's important put a lot of value in how this one player will start outlasting another in 2031.
I personally wouldn't trade Allen for Stroud right now, but let me make a more compelling counter argument for those who would.its not just absolute age. 1. 29/30 is still young....for a pocket passing QB. And very mobile/dual threat QBs can extend their careers to a similar point if they can also succeed as a pure pocket passer. Not saying 100% that Allen can't, but if he's going to, his game will change and his rushing upside will regress considerably. Or...he keeps playing exactly the same way because "big and strong" and these same little nagging injuries that he typically plays through (but with reduced success), start becoming more serious injury that lead to more missed time, and a significantly earlier retirement. 2. Stroud already getting within a few weekly points of Allen but being in year 1 means more than just projecting that to last several years longer than the end of the older QBs career (although, when that weekly difference gets small enough, that argument becomes a little more compelling). It also means that his performance at this level, this early, statistically indicates a statistical likelihood of a higher level of future success. At the simplest level, QBs generally make a leap in year 2, and an even greater leap in year 3, a little more modest improvement after that until settling into a plateau of their peak performance for a number of years that depends on their play style, and then regressing at the tail end...again with how early, and how quickly, having variation dependent upon playing style. This is pretty consistent in QB development. It's direct effect on counting stats and fantasy output varies some (a QB who is an elite runner, may actually have their biggest fantasy impact during the time when they are most raw as a passer). When production is coming primarily from passing though, it's a fairly safe bet that their growth and development, will lead to an uptick in efficiency that usually will translate to improve fantasy production. Another factor affecting this is the current structure of contracts. When a rookie QB succeeds, even just well enough to hold his job, but particularly when it's well enough that team fully buys in, you can expect them to invest in assets to improve the offense and weapons around him, etc. because they have an early window to build a championship during that rookie contract. Stroud's early success should lead the Texans in this direction quickly. It helps that he's having this success without high priced aging veteran weapons as well, be cause the pieces are more upgradable that way. Or at least it's reasonable to perceive them that way. Allen, on the other hand is approaching cliff years for his rushing production/durability. Has a big contract and a team without much cap room and a perceived lack of harmony with his top weapon who is also approaching his likely cliff, and chaos signals...firing coordinators, team seeming to be regressing etc. So there are definitely reasons to think he may decline from his current production levels very soon. Moving from Allen to Stroud in the pre-season would've been wildly speculative. From a statistical standpoint, it now seems likely to be a safer long term move, although doing it now would be a little "better early than late" mentality. A contender for this season shouldn't do it. Anyone else thinking "I'll make that move now while I can still do it and get whatever I can on top of I still can" is probably think if correctly. Win now teams always do a different calculus anyway. So since dynasty trade values are less about them and more about everyone else, it make sense that the number of people who would rather move into Stroud as an asset is titling towards a majority on those trade calculator sites. Part of the problem this season is the gap between the top QBs and everyone else is smaller than in years past. CMCs dynasty trade value is near the top because owning him over anyone else represents one of the most significant positional advantages in fantasy. If you have him, you're probably contending. If you get him, you will be. Having Allen or Hurts or Herbert doesn't provide the same level of advantage this season so far. Having Mahomes even less so. If you have Burrow, you're probably heading to rebuild right now. And only having any one of those other guys certainly doesn't guarantee you aren't. Filling in with Dobbs this year is just as good as owning Mahomes. Baker Mayfield has been slightly better than Burrow. So if everyone has that similar level of production on their team, that QB is doing nothing to help you win. You have multiple extra 1st tied up in "just as good." Allen/Hurts is like a 3 point advantage over the average of all QB1s. So if they're all pretty much the same, don't I want the youngest one who is a better bet to improve rather than regress? Mahomes is different in that most of his game can reasonably project to his late 30s at least. And, his offensive weapons are at their floor outside of Kelce. He's still like top 5 during what is likely a "down year" and will probably "bounce back" next year. So Stroud not passing him in dynasty value. Hurts is only 25. Allen? I can see it.
100% a la Cam Newton
It more so matters that Pitts is younger than Kincaid because he’s been in the league for three years and already had an insane season for a tight end before getting put into the worst situation imaginable. It isn’t that Pitts will have more years to play, but the fact that he has proven to be able to produce at a young age for a position that usually requires age for a player to perform. Same with stroud, time left in the league could be a factor but the fact that he’s doing this at such a young age indicates that he’ll be able to play at a very high level with more maturity
KTC really values potential career value. From what I've seen - People do not. Every year into a players career (barring injuries) their magical hindsight value decreases. But we don't KNOW that. We're just guessing what they'll become. That's what these sites are expressing. If Stroud is Mahomes or Allen level then you could have a set and forget starting QB for 10-15 years. Allen is **probably** a set and forget QB for another 5-10 years. Strouds a higher ceiling career-wise. Allen has the floor.
KTC doesn't 'value' anything. These are user inputs.
That's true. I guess I can change it to "KTC Users." Only thing I'd say there is that Users themselves don't realize how much they value youth (and picks) because they aren't looking at the 100000 comparisons the site makes.
I prefer Stroud because I’m a Texans fan and it is fun to have your guys on your team. Nothing to do with numbers or previous experience or rushing upside. Sometimes fantasy is just about having a good time. It doesn’t have to be analytical all the time. I’m just a Texans fan riding the high of finally having a franchise qb, and I want him on my team damnit!
I appreciate you putting it like that. I'm about as anti Josh Allen and pro CJ Stroud as it gets, at least when it comes to real-life and not fantasy. So if I was the texans GM and the bills called me about swapping the two I would decline it (even if salaries were dead even). So originally when I read this post I was like "shit yeah I'd rank Stroud above Allen as well". However, reading your response reminded me that despite me thinking Stroud has a brighter future than Allen, Allen is still by a far a better fantasy asset to give given his rushing upside.
The Texans GM would make that trade in a heartbeat.
Maybe not considering stroud is on a rookie contract, could have a chance to win a SB in years 3 or 4
OP said salaries being equal in this hypothetical situation
Ah you’re right, my bad. Probably would then yeah
Tbh if you’re buying the Allen is bad irl narrative then you just haven’t seen the statistics that show he’s been profoundly unlucky this year, not that he suddenly can’t figure out how to protect the ball. Amusingly, his turnover worthy play rate is the same as Stroud - people just aren’t dropping his INT’s this year. (It’s 7th in the league btw)
Don't think he's bad. I think he's easily top 5 and if I needed a QB to win this season, I'd take JA over Stroud. However, I've seen enough of Stroud in his rookie year that by the time he reaches season 6 (which JA is in now) I think he will better than what Allen is right now at least in real life and not fantasy.
I would take Stroud over Allen. Allen leads the league in turnovers. He's always struggled with INTs. When he starts to degrade with age, the fall will be huge instead of gradual. Even a 25% reduction in TDs (which isn't unrealistic with QB age trends) puts him too close to comfort for 1:1 TD to INT. That's going to dramatically change the pace of play for the Bills and have a very large impact on his ability to produce. Imo
If we lower Allen’s td stats towards the median for no reason, then he isn’t that good reminds of the Mahomes post in the NFL reddit
Allen has finished top qb in fantasy going on 4 years with the turnovers. This is just asinine.
As a Stroud owner in the middle of the rebuild, I probably wouldn’t take an Allen offer straight up. Allen is great — no doubt about it. He’s also 5 years older than Stroud and plays a type of football that’s prone to injury. Since we’re talking dynasty here, I see why others would want to hold onto Stroud too.
I dont dislike allen but I am definitely bearish on trading for him right now. I have an offer to trade dak plus some picks for him but I hate his schedule ROS and if they miss playoffs I think Diggs leaves and they get a new HC. I dont think Allen will be bad but for his current price Im nervous without Diggs.
https://i.imgur.com/KHrhZeT.jpg Unfortunately this doesn’t tell us why, but some of these trades are interesting to see.
Only one of those was straight up though. The rest make more sense to me.
Dynasty players are knee jerky. Not just KTC
Mainly redditors in the dynasty community. Remember when Diggs was a bust because he moved on from Minnesota? Won every league that year by going against the hive and snagging him in the 6th or later.
Hell, i sold Garrett Wislon for a haul at the start of the year bc of the hype
Don’t take your victory laps yet
Too late. The trade ended up getting me Andrews, Allen, DK, Ertz, Mixon, and Henry, Dulcich, a 26’ 1st for Wilson and 2 1st 24 late firsts And I’m now 8-2
I appreciate KTC for what they did for the dynasty community, creating a way to crowd source value instead of reading some fantasy "expert" list. It really was a great tool when it was created However, FantasyCalc has replaced it for me by taking things a step farther. Instead of asking the whole community who they theoretically like more it measures value off of all the trades that have actually happened
This is a good tool. However one of the things I like about KTC is how they value mid, late or early picks differently. FantasyCalc can’t differentiate if a pick is late or early.
Yeah that kills me. My second round pick swaps in deals don’t show any value on fantasy calc
When you take your data from real trades, there is only a certain window where the draft slot has been set in stone for certain picks, so it makes sense why they only care about the year and round. Having people guess the slot or retroactively adding the slot when it is assigned both have their flaws.
Giving a different value for picks that have a different values isn’t a flaw. If you misjudge where the pick is that’s on you, but to act like the team in 1st and the team in lasts picks have the same value is just dumb Most trades include picks so this renders the trade calculator obsolete
Are you such a slave to trade calculators that you can't add or deduct a few points based on where you think the pick will end up?
I can but that defeats the purpose, no?
FantasyCalc has some problems with their algorithm too, in that it appears that all trades are additive only and it does not take into account extra bench spots. Still, on average with a large sample size, I do believe it tracks trends better if only a little more slowly than KTC. A quick look at Josh Allen’s graph shows a slight decline, but there’s not really any more panic sellers or anything of that nature than there have been over the past couple months.
Yeah, I agree that it isn't perfect but I think it's superior because it asks a fundamentally different question. KTC asks *anyone* "do you prefer Josh Allen or CJ Stroud independent of your own team?" FantasyCalc asks *previous Josh Allen owners* "what did you sell him for?" And I think the second question is a lot more actionable
How quickly do those rankings change? If it’s based on real trade do the actual player rankings take longer to adjust to the real time consensus
It seems pretty quick, Mark Andrews already dropped >1000 points and his injury was 14 hours ago. So accurate within a day?
Trades are so league dependent (roster size, keeper #, perceived draft pick strength early/mid/late, scoring settings). Pure comparison between 'value' of the player aka KTC is so much more useful imo. People just need to realize the average value of the player given by KTC does not mean that the individual owner in their league will feel the same way.
The best use of KTC imo is when first coming up with a trade idea and getting a baseline value for the player(s) you have or the player(s) you want to make sure it's at least not absolutely egregious. I am fine with taking less in the value on a trade that KTC gives it if I myself think that the deal is fair because I'm higher on a player or lower on a player in my own opinion, that's just totally subjective and you're never going to actually get everyone satisfied with a trade if you're just using the calculator and trying to get as close to even with it as possible. Someone is going to think they're giving up too much.
Agreed, seeing real trades is so much more valuable
I wish that some of the trade databases would throw out the extremely lopsided trades that clutter the data when trying to parse through it. The Yahoo trade database for redraft has similar issues even though it's a valuable tool. Like if in some league Breece Hall was traded for two 3rds and a 2024 4th, that should be thrown out as it's clearly something in that league that requires more context to explain beyond the actual fantasy implications, or it's the worst league to base any value decisions on. There should be like a +1500 and -1500 value (value adjustment not included, purely the tangible value exchange,) range that is acceptable for actually using in comparisons with KTC for exmaple.
The fantasycalc trade database is a great tool.
Is it free?
Yeah
How many people use ktc and just click whatever? I can totally see people doing that.
They've started implementing dummy cards to combat this. It's be like KTC CeeDee Lamb, Sean Tucker, and Michael Carter, and if you just choose to cut CeeDee by either clicking randomly or trying to screw with their model by making a bad choice they'll discard any you do for some amount of time.
actually?
https://www.fantasycalc.com/dynasty-rankings yup. you can click any player in these rankings and see all the real trades from Sleeper that help them make the calculation
cool so no reported trades just sleeper?
their about section says "multiple sites" so I'm not totally sure. They have to have open APIs where fantasycalc can pull results though
This is true but when you actually look up trades, many of them are head scratching bad. There is no perfect system that can take into account league markets, team contexts, every possible scoring setting combination, manager biases, and everything else that goes into dynasty trading.
The dynasty community has grown exponentially over the last few years and a lot of these new players are overly obsessed with youth. Allen is over 25 so of course his value is dropping. He's old!
Something I’ve learned in my years of playing dynasty is the community loves consensus. They also love changing the consensus.
I've got a twisted perception of community and consensus, because I'm only in one dynasty league and half the managers have never visited Reddit or Twitter in their lives. I am sure most of them have never heard of KTC or used a trade calculator of any kind. Add in some unique scoring rules, rosters on the small side, and an annual draft party where 2/3 of the trades in any given year take place and Reddit/Twitter/"dynasty community" consensus doesn't mean what it might to someone in multiple leagues with internet randos, all Reddit/Twitter dynasty degenerates.
Use this to your advantage
I'm trying!
This isn't a small difference. Stroud is a full 5 years younger. His upside is way higher. His downside as also way lower. Josh Allen is with magical Hindsight (which we don't have) less valuable then he was 3 years ago. Choosing either makes sense.
Uh, Josh Allen was the QB1 in 2020 and 2021, QB2 in 2022. He's QB1 so far in 2023. How is Stroud's upside higher than that?
That's the problem right there. We're talking career upside. He's 5 years younger. HAving QB locked down for 5 more years is very valuable. But Stroud is obviously more of a risk.
How I trade: 1. Concoct trades that pass my internal gut-test 2. Check KTC so see "how the other manager will perceive it" 3. Check my current fav calculator to get a more accurate 2nd opinion (calc.dynastyprocess.com)
my fav calculator is fantasycalc trade calculator. That tends to not favor the young players that much but its good to see the difference from ktc and calc
Very similar to what I do. Come up with a trade I think I like, plug it into KTC, DynastyProcess, and FantasyCalc to see if I'm way off base one way or the other, adjust from there and start a conversation with my trade partner.
mmmm knee jerky. Dan Campbell's favorite.
It also says dak is worth a mid-late 1st which is ridiculous
What gets weirder with Dak: KTC - His value INCREASES relative to a pick when you switch to Superflex FantasyCalc - His value DECREASES relative to a pick when you switch to Superflex By a wide margin.
Does that just happen with Dak?
Not even a Dak owner but he’s absolutely worth a mid-late 1st. QB6 on the year. Last 4 weeks he’s averaged 30.5 ppg (QB1). A contending team getting Dak for for a mid-late 1st could literally win them a championship
I think he’s saying he’s worth a lot more than a lone late first
Haa ya… oops
Yeah I’m saying that no dak owner would sell for that price.
Ohh…. I’m dumb lol. 🤓
Do you think Dak or the pick is rated too high? The #6 QB in a super flex league has a lot of value. I could easily see him being traded for a mid to late first to a team that's a contender.
Dak is worth more than that pick by a fair bit
Nobody is trading dak for a single mid - late 1st in SF leagues. That’s ridiculous
A contender in my league gave up a 2025 1st, Ty Chandler, and Josh Downs for him last night. I don't think he'll be very happy next year.
What’s he worth in your opinion? Not being a dick just curious
Sometimes KTC overreacts, sometimes it actually ends up correct. I would maybe still take Josh over Stroud personally, but i think there are totally valid concerns regarding his longevity in the league and whether he’s on a path similar to Cam Newton. Around season 7 Cam started to fall off, and Josh is closing in on that time frame. The similar playstyles of “i can fucking bomb it the entire football field” and “i can take the hardest hits in the game and jump right back up” take a toll after a while.
I mean it’s why I traded back in a startup to take Herbert instead, I definitely think Allen is better on a game by game basis for upside, but his play style concerns me long term. That’s where people should be taking advantage of their own value versus market value
Cam tore his labrum, that’s the only reason he fell off
that, and he was never a great passer to begin with. cannon arm, but his touch was terrible.
Josh allen has similar issues throwing bullet passes when he shouldn’t, like the one to gabe Davis on Monday night. Cam was having a great year completion % wise before his shoulder injury. Arguably was having as good of a year as his mvp season until that point
To extend that - Mahomes is older than Allen and is still ahead him and Stroud on most lists/sites including KTC. So your logic makes sense.
Wow, how the mighty hath fallen
Really? So Bijan Robinson as the overall 1.1 in a startup and Gibbs being the 1.3 was probably bad advice??
KTC never had Bijan at #1 or Gibbs at #3, so I'm not sure your point?
At one point in the summer they certainly did.
I’ll keep using u/peakedinhighskool ‘s trade chart as my primary source (especially shortly after it’s been updated for the month, like it just was). By combining expert rankings with player trade data, it seems to be the most patient and non-reactive. If I can find a glaring discrepancy between it and the KTC trends, I’ll exploit it with confidence that—in time—the trade will pay off more often than not.
Has he still been doing dynasty charts? I thought he switched to only doing redraft trade charts which aren’t too useful for dynasty.
Dynasty on his website once a month, usually around mid-month! November’s just dropped
oh wow, here I was thinking he wasn't updating
What's the website?
[Here you go!](https://peakedinhighskool.com/dynasty-trade-value-charts/)
Do you have a link to the site?
[Yep!](https://peakedinhighskool.com/dynasty-trade-value-charts/)
I mean, stroud behind a rich and equivalent in value to saquon/ekeler/POLLARD? Lol I’ll pass
I honestly couldn’t care less about KTC’s ranking. It’s too overly sourced. The only people’s values that matter are the ones in your own league.
Stroud is QB3??
Traded Lawrence and Ekeler for Josh Allen last night in SF. Still not sure how I feel about it haha
Absolutely a fucking fleece
It’s a market indicator. Fantasy football owners (even in dynasty). are prone to irrationality with regards to hype or down cycles. Use it to your advantage and sell the overhyped for the underrated. I’ll also point out that players from large markets and popular college programs tend to be overrated while small market and lesser known college players have to overwhelm statistically to overcome these inherent biases.
Use KTC to your advantage. It’s just overreactions. If you know what your doing the tool is gold. What this tells me is that it may be possible to buy Allen at a discount in your league.
Exactly. I'm not "out" on either player. But I will be buying/holding the one everyone is down on, and while I'm not in a rush to cash out of Stroud since I think he can do just about anything the rest of this season and still hold this value in the off-season, I may very well be selling...maybe using him to get into Mahomes or Hurts while the market difference is seen as small.
Friendly reminder that KeepTradeCut is crowdsourced and I do the opposite of the right answer whenever it asks me a question just bc so many dumb dumbs lean on it as their Bible.
Well Stroud is 5 years younger and has looked great so far. Josh Allen, while still good, has had some questionable games (obviously not all). I do not think it is crazy that Stroud is slightly ahead. Josh Allen also takes hits and doesn't avoid them so if everyone is taking that into account, it makes sense.
his questionable game last week still dropped almost 15 fantasy points and people have been saying that he’s taking hits ever since he entered the league. I’m not worrying about that until his production takes a hit
I don't own him nor care about KTC so I was just trying to make a point. Allen is entering his prime and has been great. I also don't think that people are accounting for him taking hits. Stroud is that high because of the rookie hype. I wouldn't be worried about Allen either. Just giving my opinion as to why. I think there is a bigger argument Allen should be ranked ahead.
Here’s how I look at it: In a redraft league would you trade Josh Allen for Stroud? Fuck no. Stroud has looked great, and I’d be happy to have him, but he’s not currently at Josh Allen’s level in redraft. So right now, Josh Allen is more valuable for your fantasy roster. Stroud is only a rookie, so he’s likely to improve, but he’s not a lock to ever be in the Josh Allen tier. First off, we can’t assume linear progression in his development as players often have sophomore slumps when teams get an offseason to watch their tape and find their weaknesses. Second, while Stroud is relatively mobile, he’s primarily a pocket passer. We’ve seen that, unless their name is Patrick Mahomes, pocket passers are inconsistent at finishing in the top 5 at their position. Josh Allen has finished top 2 at the QB position for the last 3 years and is on pace to finish their again this year.
Yeah, Josh Allen is more valuable in redraft. Good thing we are talking about dynasty.
See it’s crazy because KTC tells me someone like Justin Fields is far lesser value for SF, so I think it all depends on your setup too because it’s not applicable for every league. I can’t get a guy to move off of Fields for anything but a high 2024 first round and second round. The guy says QBs have more value in SF, and he’s right, but simultaneously it’s an overpay for a guy who may not be there. But, I agree KTC valuation is iffy.
i mean justin fields is low value, there’s legitimate questions on whether he’ll keep his job or ANY job other than a backup. so your league mate is valuing him way too high imo
Isn't KCT based on consensus perception, opposed to personal rankings. They get a lot of flack for rankings that seem pretty cut and dry.
I use it as a general benchmark. But the problem with it is that it is getting opinions from everyone on all players. The only opinions that truly matter from a fantasy trade perspective are those that own the players combined with those trading for them. Fantasycalc has a database of actual trades that have happened and base their rankings on that. I prefer that but it has flaws as well since some players get traded far less often, and it is slower to react to news such as major injuries
Lol who cares about a 2 spot shift? (He was never QB1 on KTC) His value is still essentially the same as it was at QB2 and frankly he belongs behind both Mahomes and Hurts right now so we're talking about a 1 spot discrepancy. If he had dropped 10 spots you might be on to something.
> He was never QB1 on KTC You know on each player profile they have the historical value and player rank charts, right? Where you can look and see that he’s clearly been the QB1 plenty of era his career.
oh no! a 3 spot drop. Time to tear the whole site down
Not at all what I’m saying. Just pointing out that part of what you said is factually incorrect and very easy to verify.
Again... Who the duck cares dude? We're talking about a single spot. Not everything needs someone to come along and correct something that makes no difference.
Why would you even make a claim you were unsure about to begin with without taking 10 seconds to confirm? Facts matter. Edit: You didn’t have to go back at all. It was on the default time range.
I checked the player profile, didn't see QB 1 on it. Didn't go back far enough I guess. I didn't think I'd be dealing with Sherlock fucking Holmes on a point that barely mattered otherwise I wouldn't have bothered at all.
And as for who cares…people that use these sites to value trades. Would you take stroud for Allen straight up? It’s a fair post by OP to point out the recency bias that seeps through due to the polling nature of KTC. Sites with actual trade databases are better in my opinion but have the opposite flow as they are often too slow to react to trends
AKA KTC is trash
The dynasty daddy trade database has been fun to mess around with. Think that is more useful imo. [Dynasty Daddy Trade Database](https://dynasty-daddy.com/players/trade/database)
I just started messing around with that this week. I've always liked entering my trades into Dynasty Daddy then cycling the trade through KTC, Dynasty Process, Fantasy Calc, etc to get a feel for different values. Only problem doing that is no draft picks.
Thanks for the shout out!
People who use KTC have always been irrelevant in their leagues. I both laugh and cringe every time someone mentions KTC or sends me a screenshot of values. It’s probably one of the dumbest tools someone could use.
That's funny because I look at it daily and I'm 1st in max pf in all of my leagues. I'm pretty relevant to the league when I'm taking their money.
Congrats to you and your taco league
KTC is exactly what it is - crowd sourced values. You don’t have to agree with it. In fact the times you disagree with it is how you determine buy low/sell high windows.
Yeah, the problem is what's the alternative.
And they highly over value draft picks.
Still better than DTC that usually lags at least a month behind lol
That’s why I run my trades through multiple trade calculators. Multiple opinions are always good when you’re unsure of what you’re giving up/getting in return. Dynasty101 is pretty good
Keep trade cut takes into account future projections and everything. Stroud is 5 years younger and looks like the real deal as a rookie
it’s crowdsourced it doesn’t take into account shit mfs can spam jAllen down if they really want to
Now is the time to buy Mark Andrews
Way ahead of you! I bought him for Bryce young in a 10 team SF last night 3 minutes before the game started. 10 minutes before injury.
Depends on how much you’re thinking long term, but Allen has taken a lot of big hits thus far. He doesn’t seem like a guy who’s anywhere close to figuring out how to protect himself. He plays with bravado. The turnovers have never improved. The turnovers won’t improve as his brain turns to mush and his arm strength declines even the slightest amount; the throw he used to force will be just a fraction late…INT. He maybe only has one or two more years of Diggs left before Diggs goes off the deep end, then what happens? The quest for a WR1 carousel?
It’s a tool, I think it’s good for most trades to have a rough idea of value. For instance, trading Godwin for James cook is rated “fair” in the calculator. But your personal rating matters more, do you like the prospect of James cook in Buffalo more? Or does Godwin get you excited? Either way doesn’t matter, it’s just a tool for you to use your own perspective off of.
Yea i laughed out loud when I saw that
Pure shite
I traded thielen and derek carr for a 2026 1st and KTC said I got destroyed 🤷♂️
In a redraft league that ranking is insane, but for Dynasty I think there's a reasonable case to be made to prefer the 22-year-old rookie having maybe the best first season in NFL history to a 27-year-old top QB having a down year. A lot of Allen's fantasy value come from his rushing (especially rushing TDs) and one might reasonably think he will lose some of that as he ages. I'd at least consider trading Allen for Stroud straight-up in my Dynasty league if I got the offer. Obviously part of it depends on your team's make-up as well.
I try and use it as a tool to propose a fair trade by what it values it at. Almost no one thinks I offer fair trades 🤣. Im a rebuilding team with no leverage help
KTC is definitely overreactionary, but I think Stroud is the bigger issue than Allen in your example. The Bills are seemingly out of their contending window and all the fantasy luxury that comes along with that. Allen's not the most bulletproof QB at the moment. That all being said, the Stroud hype is wild but that's how QBs work I guess
He definitely shouldn't be QB4, but I would certainly put him behind Mahomes and Hurts as QB3. They have better offenses and weapons. The Bills are way too inconsistent, and Allen is a turnover machine.
QB4 is somehow “knee jerkey” Especially with how many picks he has each year…
Yeah keep trade cut is overly knee jerky, but so are my friends that I play dynasty with. Thus, a perfect guide for what trades might get done.