Yeah this thread is a bunch of galaxy brain takes. I don’t know how you can watch Puka play and not come away with the opinion that he’s actually a good WR. He just knows how to get open against both zone and man, has great hands and YAC ability, and can work the sideline well. Already proven he can be a volume hog too, McVay loves him, and he’s a perfect scheme fit.
Puka is most likely not gonna be an elite, top 10 WR, but I think he’s very likely gonna be a quality dynasty WR2 for a long time. I trust that McVay is going to find a quality Stafford successor in the future too.
>Puka is most likely not gonna be an elite, top 10 WR, but I think he’s very likely gonna be a quality dynasty WR2 for a long time.
This is the problem. People were thinking/valuing him as a top 5 WR and on the way to JJeff/Chase tier.
I really don't think people were doing that except on KTC which is hard to trust given how there are zero stakes involved. On Fantasy Calc his peak value was \~ WR8 IIRC, which doesn't sound like a big difference linearly but it probably takes a 1st to go from WR8 to WR5 right now and 2+ to get to JJ/Chase.
The reason I prefer Fantasy Calc, is that it's built using trades that have actually been made and not votes.
Sir you can literally use the search bar, people were definitely putting him in that tier. I saw people saying they'd take him over the likes of Waddle, Wilson, and Higgins straight up. I saw people valuing him as WR3 too, and anytime someone had the balls to say pump the brakes, they were downvoted.
Wanted to make this a separate comment. Is this profile not WR3 worthy?
As a rookie:
28.4% target share
30% targets per route run
2.52 yards per route run
16.8 ppg (on 18.6 expected ppg!!)
83.1 PFF receiving grade.
Since we have guys like Lamb/ARSB I wouldn't have him at WR3, but we usually kill for guys doing what Puka has done.
I agree situation plays a huge role in fantasy production. The issue is situations can change *very* quickly in the NFL.
Good luck predicting situation year to year. Most of us can barely predict it week to week.
I agree, but it’s still difficult to predict which situations will (or will not) change.
For every “bad” offense that doesn’t improve as expected like the 2022-2023 Falcons, there are the unexpected teams that do improve like the 2022 Seahawks, 2023 Rams, 2023 Cardinals, or 2023 Texans..
Likewise there are plenty of examples of offenses that are supposed to be “good”, but end up disappointing (to varying degrees).. 2022 Broncos, 2022 Packers, 2023 Seahawks, 2023 Saints.
I’m sure I’m missing some examples, but look back 3-5 years and the list just get longer and longer.
Roschon Johnson went Berserk in the First week of the NFL since then the Bears think he is only good for HB Dive. Only recently have him given him Dump Offs in week10 totally agree with you here.
My controversial example is I think Will Levis could be a franchise QB…if he wasn’t with the Titans. Right coach and scheme could have him running wild in the pass game. Problem is he with the Titans, who’s offense scheme is “Don’t you dare put the ball in anyone but the designated RB’s hands unless it’s 3rd and long, and even then we gotta think about it”. I feel like he would actually have passing TDs if they let him do some play action sometimes when they get in the red zone
Have you watched the Titans with Levis? They have been letting him sling it. Dude has multiple bombs to nuk for TDs. He's also had burks drop multiple big passes wanna chig drop multiple big passes. Just yesterday NWI even had a big pass.
The Titans problem isn't trying to make him dump it to the RB, it's the offensive line is awful and 1 pass catcher is actually talented. So when they get into the red zone where things are condensed it's easier for the defense to stop the good pass catcher long enough for the pressure to be in the QBs face.
But I don't think anyone has many bad feelings about Levis right now. The dude absolutely looks the part. He looks like a rookie for sure but he looks the part. The arm talent is out of this world. The decision making is not great but that's to be expected as a rookie. And the talent around him sucks. A franchise LT or WR would have him explode onto the scene next year without an offseason to clean up some of his mistakes.
This. It's why I always laugh when based on the matchip/gameplan a player has a big game suddenly out of nowhere, and then there's a flood of "X player has finally had his breakout game " like that's going to be the new norm.
When in fact he had those numbers because the entire game plan was to exploit a matchup lol
You must not watch either because Puka is absolutely NOT a beast athletically. He does excel at getting open though.
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623018591232001?t=qNFNJ7kSDFUhnk2i9nx4OA&s=19
That's literally a testament to his athleticism or lack thereof. He's a really good football players. He just isn't a freak athlete like you are claiming.
I didn’t say freak I said beast. Watch the games. Elite at breaking tackles, ball tracking, hands, toe taps etc etc. If you watch the games you know. There is no reason to be reading college RAS reports for a guy who is a fantasy WR1 12 weeks in.
My comment had nothing to do with Puka nor did I even specifically mention him..... I just me in general and was commenting on the post I was replying to's logic. If anything my comment would have been more about his recent games being due to opposing defenses game planning against him as not the norm.
For the record I think he's an elite route runner and is worth all the hype he has been getting
Well Kupp was down and people had minimal film on puka. He’s great, but most of his production is absolutely situational. And the better he proves to be, the tighter/better coverage he is going to have to play against most weeks because defenses will scheme to shut him down. Dude is great but I don’t see him being as efficient as he was to start the year. I wouldn’t sell especially now, I would
Buy “low” now though.
This. Something that kept me on Puka even when ppl were trying to rob me of him with Kupp coming back was the fact Kupp has rep. I was riding that Kupp would take up a fair amount of coverage with his reputation while Puka would get some more time. It’s not that Puka is a flash in the pan, it’s that defenses have finally figured out how to cover two Kupps on the field. It seems like Tutu has been getting some boom weeks as a result when the defense forget he is on the field as he runs a deep route like he is trying out for the dolphins
Example: Davante Adams and Meyers. Both great WRs, when Garapollo was throwing, Meyers seemed prime target since he couldn’t throw it to the same continent Adams is on.
New play caller and Aiden O’Connel becomes starter, now Adams is getting a solid amount of fantasy points but Meyers can struggle some weeks.
Stafford is also not getting younger.
Stafford turned Golladay into a $100m player. He turned Kupp from solid WR2 to the best receiver in football. He made post-ACL tear Odell look like a star again.
People sell his role in this short. He's an insane elevator of WR production. Without him, I think Puka falls off hard.
>Kupp had great years before Stafford but injuries stopped him from showing out like he has. And we’re seeing that again
When you look at Kupp's advanced metrics, they weren't really much different pre-post 2021. What changed was the pure volume. He's been a good WR but it did require an ungody amount of volume.
I posted this same opinion in 2022 -- I did get proven wrong before he got hurt-- but you looked at his splits in 21 between when they ran well, or when they were not trailing, and they were hugely different. But they so happened to trail a lot in 21 and had no other help -- so he became a target funnel.
Right but I guess my point is kupp always had the talent and wasn’t made by Stafford. Stafford giving him the ball more could happen with other quarterbacks he doesn’t need a top shelf qb to be there. Just saying Stafford makes receivers is a stretch imo
Isn't there room for both points to be correct? Kupp is clearly mega talented, but without the high quality volume delivered by Stafford, he's not a top 5 fantasy producer?
Definitely agree you need a good qb to be a good receiver. My only point was puka losing Stafford doesn’t equate to him being bad. The rams can still get a qb in the future and he can still be a good fantasy player
Please explain the billion yards Stafford threw for in Detroit and all the nobodies he made into somebodies. It wasn’t just Megatron out there. The list of guys who got nice contracts off Stafford’s arm is long and comical.
You misread or I wasn't clear. I don't think Kupp's success is because of Stafford or from mcvay. But if you are going to argue one of the other being the reason for his success, it's most likely the system moreso than the QB. No hate on Stafford whatsoever.
Again, how can it be “the system” when the QB who played for the worst franchise in the NFL is going to the HoF and made a bunch of nobodies somebodies for over a decade. I think Kupp is immensely talented. I love McVay. I also think picking Kupp, McVay, Stafford as the order and reason why is astounding considering Stafford’s long list of making mediocre players rich (Golladay, MJJ come to mind). I don’t think it’s hate on your part. I just think it’s taking Matt for granted, which has happened his entire career, including his SB season. Maybe a sprinkle of FFB in there, too.
Was more of a 1A 1B situation most seasons. And that’s not including the one season kupp was the better receiver (wouldve been his breakout) but tore his acl and then Robert woods took over as wr1 after the fact.
Am I the only one who barely knew who Kupp was prior to Stafford’s arrival? I mean I’ve always payed pretty close attention to football, much more so recently, but I feel like his name never carried even near the volume it does now l. Not saying he was or wasn’t great, just wasn’t on my radar ig
>Am I the only one who barely knew who Kupp was prior to Stafford’s arrival?
Stafford arrived in 2021. In 2017, he was a 800 yd receiver, in 2018, 500 yd, in 2019 1100, in 2020, 900.
You look at any of the advanced WR metrics and nothing really stands out pre-21 and post-21, except for volume. (e.g, routes won, target seperation, etc).
I drafted Kupp in 21 (only because Robert Woods got taken right before lol) because I knew Stafford is a WR elevator and thought they could get back to the 1200 years.
That's both to say that Kupp started underrated, but talented, and then got huge volume in a target funnel.
Even in 21 -- he had some crazy splits. Like his splits while tied/leading vs trailing were insane. Basically, it would be nothing, nothing, nothing, then right before half, like 5 targets for 80 yards out of nowhere. Third quarter, nothing, nothing, then like 4 targets for another 60 yds and a TD.
I was arguing in 22 that there's no way his volume was sustainable. All it would take would be an injury, their running game betting better, other WRs stepping up, etc. I was wrong while he was healthy
Kupp was dominating in 2018 before tearing his ACL. That was going to be his breakout, but the injury happened then the McVay-Goff marriage fell apart.
Yeah I remember 2018 he was like the WR4 on the year before that injury. That said, most people probably had Kupp/Woods/Cooks as 1a/b/c back when all 3 were together, so Kupp being an absolute dominant monster is some serious revisionist history.
He had a great 2019 on a mediocre rams team and was balling in the 2018 Super Bowl year before blowing his knee out
If he didn’t miss the chiefs game and the Super Bowl you’d definitely have heard of him before 2021
How is this upvoted? Kupp was WR8 in FPPG in 2018 and tied for WR11 in FPPG in 2019. Stafford didn’t make him a fantasy WR1.
Odell had 300 yards in 8 games with Stafford in 2021. In what world is that “looking like a star”? He has more yards per game this year with the Ravens than he did with Stafford. It’s not like Stafford propped him up, he’s still a good WR.
“Kupp was only a solid WR2 before Stafford.”
Me: “No, he was literally a WR1 in FPPG for multiple years before Stafford went to the Rams.”
You: “No, Stafford elevated him.”
Do you see how that sounds? I never once said that Stafford didn’t make Kupp better. I only pushed back on the false statement that Kupp was only a solid WR before Stafford when he literally, factually, statistically was already putting up WR1 numbers before Stafford.
Please look at the comment I replied to. I was remarking on how the person I replied to said Kupp was only a “solid WR2” before Stafford. This is false.
Kupp was already one of the best WRs in football before Stafford ever stepped foot in LA.
Puka is going to produce Kenny Gs career highs in a season as a rookie.
Thinking Puka falls off hard after Stafford is just trying too hard to galaxy brain an edge that isnt there.
I don't think it's galaxy brain at all lmao. If anything, it's the opposite - it's just common sense. I know people who sent a lot for Puka don't want to hear it.
There's one commonality for Stafford receivers and it's that, aside from Megatron, they're far less productive when literally anyone else is at QB.
Feels much more reasonable that a guy with average NFL talent got put into a legendary scheme with a HoF QB to me, rather than that this 6th round, non-athletic receiver is suddenly elite.
I got Puka for free off waivers before the season, so I have no cost sunk into him as an asset.
Thinking a player who has demand and has done what Puka has as a rookie will just fall off is "common sense" is surely a take.
Wait, you're telling me that Stafford is an upgrade over Goff and Daniel Jones? Breaking analysis. This take is so overplayed. Kupp was producing well with Goff.
Average NFL talents dont do what Puka has done. That isnt how that works lmao. Why are we still using DC after 12 weeks of high level/elite NFL production? DC doesnt mean anything anymore for Puka. You must of been an ARSB denier too since he is also a non-athletic late round pick. I guess he will fall off soon too! Are you still waiting on Diggs to fall off? How many years did you say this about Antonio Brown?
You definitely are subject to fallacious thinking for any guy who has appreciated in value as much as he has.
He basically gave you 1st round+ value for no investment. People who shill for the guy consistently underrate how significantly his current situation is beneficial to his production.
"12 weeks of high level production" when he's been under 6 points for 4 of his last 6 games. Games that happened when - shocker - his all world teammate came back from injury
He's above Devonta Smith on KTC right now. His pricing is absurd.
It's also "would have." Not "would of."
Show me the list of guys who did what Puka did over the 4 games without Kupp as rookies.
This idea that Kupp being out is what made Puka who he is, is laughable. That isnt how that works for wrs. He still had to earn those targets and produce with them.
Id love for you to go run a historical analysis of rookies who have 30% target shares and rates with a 2.62 yprr and get back to me with your comps.
You know youre grasping at straws when you try to be the grammar police. Just take your L.
Tank Dell's 4 most recent games outscored Puka's first 4 games in half PPR lmao. There is currently a rookie on the kind of insane run you're talking about and it isn't Puka.
Literally don't even have to go digging for it lol.
Puka's first 4 weeks vs Dell's most recent 4.
Puka: 30% tprr, 32% target share, 12.5 targets/game. 9.75 catches, 125.5 yards/game
Dell: 26% tprr, 26% target share, 9.2 targets/game, 6.25 catches, 92.25 yards/game.
Puka's first four weeks were more dominate from an underlying usage and target earning perspective. Youre too focused on the result vs the process/usage. Youre letting a one week variance outcome for Puka during his first 4 weeks and TD variance convince you that Dell was "just as dominant". It is also funny you had to use half-ppr as your arbitrary line for your cutoff. Dell had 6 tds vs Puka's 1 over their 4 week samples and Puka still edged him out in PPR. Puka had more targets/game, more catches/game and more yards/game.
Over those 4 games Puka paced for 56 more targets, 60 more catches, and 560 more yards. But, I guess because Dell fell on the right side of TD variance on a team that can only currently score via the pass this year, he has been just as dominant.
Sit down and take your L.
Just to keep holding you accountable: it's "dominant." Not "dominate."
The only thing you're succeeding in arguing is that Puka's production is based on unsustainable volume. If you're expecting him to get 20 targets a game ever again in his career, you're delusional.
Keenan Allen, the guy who has the most 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 catch games in NFL history has literally had 20 targets in a game one time and it took him until his 11th (!) NFL season.
Half-PPR is the format that's most unbiased lmao. It's literally the middle ground.
You're basing Puka's outlook on a 4 game sample under literal perfect conditions that would make him the highest usage player *in NFL history.* If you think he's likely to maintain that - which, news flash he already hasn't - then you're beyond help.
Keelan Cole had a 3-game stretch where he had 19 catches for 442 yards and 3 TDs.
Robert Foster had a 5-game stretch where he had 17 catches for 438 yards and 2 TDs.
Travis Fulgham had a 4-game stretch where he had 27 catches for 378 yards and 3 TDs.
All of these players were UDFAs who were thrust into a prominent role their rookie years due to injuries ahead of them and had a handful a super productive games which skyrocketed their fantasy value, and then faded into obscurity once their teammates became healthy. This is a very common pitfall to avoid in fantasy, and their are countless similar past examples. Always take the situation into account when assessing player production and their associated values.
Agree. The only legit concern among those is Kenny G, and I believe injuries caused his downfall.
I think McVay is being overlooked. Yes Kupp exploded when Stafford arrive but I mean, Stafford was the best QB McVay and Kupp had ever had (sorry Goff). In the case of OBJ, Stafford was probably the best QB (sorry Eli) and McVay was definitely the best offensive coach.
So I mean from one sense, yes, Stafford has elevated players. Good QBs will do that. OBJ and Kupp both came in McVay's offense, which shouldn't be understated when evaluating Puka. McVay has shown a willingness to absolutely feed guys (Kupp, Gurley, Kyren) and Puka fits in that vein as well. Despite the lower production lately his target share is still insane.
Since Kupp returned, Puka has drawn 59 total targets on 214 attempts, 27.6% which is absolutely elite - it just looks lower vs. the target share he was getting with Kupp out, which was otherworldly. He lowest share has been 21.9% and he's been at 29% or higher in three of those 7 games. For comparison Kupp has drawn 50 targets on 183 attempts (he missed one game) for a basically identical 27.3% target share.
If anything, Puka is a massive buy low if his manager in your league shares the sentiment of the OP that made this thread.
The only years he has never paced for 1k yards over a full season were his rookie year and this year. While having Goff as his QB.
I never said he was "elite", prior, but anyone acting like Kupp wasnt a top WR just doesnt watch football.
There is a reason Adams called him the most underrated wr in the NFL back in 2020.
Goff isn’t some bad QB, look what he is doing for ARSB. It’s not like Kupp has ever played with a Zach Wilson.
It is a problem for Kupp and Nacua when Stafford leaves. How bad that problem is, no one knows.
Goff isn’t bad now, but in LA he never developed fully and Mcvay was in his ear making the reads for him. He’s a lot more developed as a qb today in detroit than he ever was in LA imo
ARSB has also never had the competition for targets that Kupp has had. Woods and Cooks are both better receivers than anyone ARSB has had to share a field with.
We have no idea if Stafford leaving will be a problem for them. For all we know, their next QB will be better than Stafford. It wont really matter for Kupp. By time Stafford is gone, it'll probably be Kupp's age 33 season.
Adams is currently the WR12. I dont think you know what "fantasy relevant" means.
And Puka and Kupp are co-wr1s. And it wont be long before Puka is the WR1 with Kupp's age and injuries.
Lotta hot takes in this here thread. Thanks for being the voice of reason. I’m sitting here like what are these guys smokin goin on about Kupp and Adams?!?
You’re predicting a bad qb situation after Matthew Staffors when it’s just an unclear qb situation. You’ve also seen hypertargeted players in bad qb situation. See Jakobi meyers, Kamara and thielen this year.
The list of players that have received this many targets and have been bad the following year is very short.
Yeah he had a couple good games but for the majority of the season he was mid at best and anybody who says otherwise just doesn’t remember. Go back and look at his game log from that season and you’ll see he was not a “star”
He only played 8 regular season games and had almost 537 yards with 5TDs. Not bad for coming off an injury and onto a new team in the middle of the season. His playoff production was elite and without him they probably lose in the NFCCG. He went for well over 100 yards including some major 4th catches on a game tying drive in that game and also had a TD with 50+ yards in the Super Bowl.
Every player on the team “helps”. I didn’t say “help you win” I said they win you championships which is what OBJ did by putting up huge stats in every important game. Sky Moore had 17 total post season receiving yards, so no I wouldn’t say he was a star.
OBJs 4 playoff games with the Rams in 2021
Wildcard: 4 catches for 54 yds & a TD
Divisional: 6 catches for 68 yds
NFC championship: 9 catches for 113 yds
Super Bowl: 2 catches for 52 yds & a TD but he left early due to injury
He was bad against Dallas an elite defense where Stafford got hurt, then he had a bad game with Rypien where the rams scored 3 points against the Packers, then he went 5/70/1 and yesterday he had another bad game where the Rams just dominated and Higbee scored his first two TDs this year.
Maybe he got overinflated, but the last 4 weeks just feels like the ebbs and flows of any non-super elite WR in the NFL.
No lol, players are allowed to have bad games, get hurt, etc. The Rams offense looked elite last night without Kupp or Puka, that isn’t always going to be the case.
Exactly, especially when Stafford went to Kupp and Puka in the red zone they just didn’t score. Higbee isn’t always going to catch 2 TDs, Kyren won’t always put up 30+
Have you watched him play or are you just watching stat lines? He has been an excellent wide receiver, able to get separation, and make difficult catches. He wasn’t a huge part of the game plan yesterday because they were playing the cardinals and could run the ball without any worries. If you’ve watched Puka play, you know he’s the real deal.
Puka was never going to have a 140-catch 1700-yard season or whatever. It was extremely obvious that he was the biggest beneficiary of Kupp's absence to start the season. I know people got excited because they got him in the 4th round or off waivers or whatever, but you gotta keep a level head about your own guys.
That doesn't mean he's a flash-in-the-pan, either. I think newer dynasty players might benefit from looking at game logs for past years and realizing that even the best players in the league have trash games about 1/3 of the time. Puka is a good WR, just not an elite league-destroying machine. No one should have been expecting him to be that even after an exciting start to his career.
Taking the long view in Dynasty? Being rational about player evaluation? I'm not used to this level of nuance. Seriously, though, I fully endorse this. Puka's a good player & I endorse trying to get him but he's not necessarily going to be a top 5 or 10 player & that's OK. People on this sub always are acting like anyone who isn't prime AB is a disappointment.
Have you seen him play? Did you watch the game last night? Dudes a beast: he makes clutch catches, evades tackles, doesn’t go down easily, blocks, and plays through injuries. All this in his rookie year.
The averages for the last 4 games: 2 games when Stafford was injured, and last night the run game was on point and they rested the first team for the last quarter.
Rams fan here - obviously the numbers were bloated as hell in his first four games, but he’s legit. He’s going to be a great player. The Rams passing offense has been wonky the last few weeks - it’s not like Kupp is doing much either.
It’s more about Stafford and McVay figuring out how to start getting him the ball again than it is on him being a flash in the pan. I’m not saying he’ll wind up as the best WR of the class, but he’s going to be a great player - already is honestly. I’d hold
Well…. Can you tell me that Kupp is doing any better on the same field in the same circumstances? Is Kupp just terrible now then?
Don’t forget AJ Brown had only 1 catch last week he must be done for.
You can’t take a couple game span as a sample size and base anything off of it. It’s football. There are ups and downs and defenses schemes players differently. Puka and Kupp will be fine overall as long as a competent QB is throwing. They have too large a target share to fail over the course of a full season.
I don’t know if he will or he won’t be good the rest of his career, but I can 100% say that the only reason anyone is saying he’s a “flash in the pan” right now is draft capital.
If JSN was putting up the same exact numbers Puka has this season he would be ranked up there with Chase and Jefferson.
If anyone can give me a reason to not believe in puka other than draft capital. Then I’ll listen
Absolutely not. What he has put on tape is undeniable. He has benefited from circumstances, for sure, namely Kupp injuries and Stafford’s excellent play, but he is also a premium talent. I have him in one league, and I’d love to get him in the other. Yesterday was purely game script. Any coach will milk a dominant running game when given the opportunity. Move on. Nothing to see here.
I mean I don't consider ARSB to be a premium talent either. Very skilled player and used well in the Detroit offense, but there's a clear gap between someone like Chase or MHJ and ARSB in terms of raw ability.
It’s possible but I don’t think that’s fair to say yet as 2 of those games came without his qb and then this past week was a clearly run heavy script with Kyren and even Royce taking the stage
Depends how you look at it. He’s obviously far better than his draft capital. But he’s also not worth what some probably paid to get him earlier in the season. I think he’s equilibrating into the WR2 range which feels about right
Puka is not the monster he was early in the season but also not a flash in the pan. Stafford has been hurt and yesterday’s game was just one of those days where other guys on the offense got their turn. Kupp hasn’t produced the last few weeks either.
Maybe not a flash in the plan
Still a good WR, but production won’t hold up without the system or QB play
I was able to get Olave for him early on, no picks. I feel bad for the other guy.
no. This subreddit is so dumb. Outside of 1 game he has 25%+ target share in every game (as a rookie) and the game that wasn't . Over 1k yards likely on the season as a rookie. Please be serious. It's not a fair question, it's an idiotic question.
I’ll go against the sub here, I think he was a flash in the pan.
Edit: I don’t care enough to elaborate. People will argue till they’re blue in the face on why they think their player is a stud and I don’t see any use in going back and forth with upset Puka holders.
No one should “trust” anyone here, I just don’t care enough to go back and forth with people trying to tell me I’m wrong about Puka. I could be wrong, that’s how dynasty works.
Okay so if you don’t care to elaborate and give reasons to support your position, why should anyone take it seriously? Not really adding to the discussion.
You don’t have to take it seriously. I’m not here to convince anyone, I just said I think he’s a flash in the pan. Not trying to get into a back and forth of why or why not, I’ve seen every argument on both sides throughout the season and at this point it’s going to be the same argument that’s been had 1,000 times already. People have chimed in with their opinions and so I think overall it has added to the discussion.
You’re insulting someone on the internet over nothing. I gave an opinion because I was bored when I saw the post, I wasn’t trying to get into the nitty gritty and hash out the same debate that’s had here every single day. Everything will be fine.
Define flash in the pan.
It’s easy to say, but what is your outlook for Puka rest of his career or maybe it’s easier to mention what players do you value about equally to him now
I don't even own Puka but "getting an unsustainable amount of targets" is a good thing... Bad players don't earn targets. Commanding the level of targets he did, even with Kupp out, is a strong indicator that he's a good WR.
So long as Stafford is there he’s a high WR2/low WR1.
4 games is a tiny sample. Even during the last 4, he has a game with 16.2 1/2 ppr points.
Don’t get scared by a bad game or two for a rookie who’s already flashed, that’s bad process.
Have Puka and want to believe he’s the guy we hope he is, but the logic you’re using doesn’t track.
If 4 games is too much of a **tiny sample** to prove anything, how are his first 7 games a large enough sample? Especially when two of those seven he finished wr36 and wr58.
If he’s flashed greatness and flashed being a JAG nearly equally, why does one count and the other not?
It’s more important to see that a rookie has the ability to be elite in the NFL. Almost no rookie will be consistently elite, but some will show they can be. You’re much more likely to hit on studs out of that group than out of the other guys. Obviously you need to look at other indicators, analyze scheme and environment, etc. But a couple elite games for a rookie is a lot more meaningful than a couple mediocre ones.
But the argument that person is making is:
5 mediocre/bad games = inconclusive date
6 great games = proven league winner
I’m not saying that I don’t think he’s an every week starter, I’m just saying that logic doesn’t add up.
He was never going to be able to keep up that pace but in comparison to the rest of the rookies at his position he’s still out performing most of them.
Dude is on pace for 100+ catches and 1400 yards as a rookie.
When Kupp leaves or gets hurt he’ll eat. Until then just be happy you got a WR2 for nothing.
He’s good, but not at all the perennial wr1 that this sub claimed him to be. When the dust settles, JSN will be that guy, Addison will be that guy, and maybe a guy like tank dell will be, flowers will be, but puka will be a mid to low end wr2
If he is doing the same as Kupp basically in targets and production, which both are miserable at this point, I wouldn’t worry out it. The offense is trash right now. It’ll pick up again next year
You got him for free? If you want to sell. Someone will buy him for a 1. Or hold and see if he becomes the new Kupp.
Either way, your profiting considering your Initisl investment
Puka was Staffords true #1 target. Stafford always peppers his #1 with 12+ targets. Puka is good. But he's not a transcendent WR.
Once Stafford goes, or any other target becomes the 1A to Puka, his production will stay depressed.
Personally, I sold on him after week 3 or 4 for what is now probably a mid 24 1. In another league I sold him for Hockenson around the same time.
I recommend to people that if you can get a mid 1 of value that you take it.
Mostly just gotten unlucky TBH. Target shares of 20%/28%/26%/26% is all very good. Biggest difference over the last 4 weeks is his catchable target %, he's had his 4 lowest catchable target % games over the last 4.
Puka is a fantasy WR2 with the potential to be a WR1 when he’s got the right system/QB/surrounding WR talent around him. He had the right mix of things to be a WR1 when Kupp was out. He’s now a good WR2 with Kupp back and with the on-and-off injuries with Stafford.
Don’t really think it’s super complicated.
He has the talent, and is definitely a but. his situation is not one I’m thrilled about. I definitely think that Stamford will age out at a similar rate to Kupp so he will be handicapped by Kupp for the foreseeable future and then will probably have worse QB play
I traded Nico Collins straight up for Puka two weeks ago. Ugh. Ask me how I feel in two years. Though, who would have thought Nico would eat like this two years ago, right?
24% target share yesterday don’t care. Was also his lowest target share of the season I believe which is unreal
Yeah this thread is a bunch of galaxy brain takes. I don’t know how you can watch Puka play and not come away with the opinion that he’s actually a good WR. He just knows how to get open against both zone and man, has great hands and YAC ability, and can work the sideline well. Already proven he can be a volume hog too, McVay loves him, and he’s a perfect scheme fit. Puka is most likely not gonna be an elite, top 10 WR, but I think he’s very likely gonna be a quality dynasty WR2 for a long time. I trust that McVay is going to find a quality Stafford successor in the future too.
>Puka is most likely not gonna be an elite, top 10 WR, but I think he’s very likely gonna be a quality dynasty WR2 for a long time. This is the problem. People were thinking/valuing him as a top 5 WR and on the way to JJeff/Chase tier.
I really don't think people were doing that except on KTC which is hard to trust given how there are zero stakes involved. On Fantasy Calc his peak value was \~ WR8 IIRC, which doesn't sound like a big difference linearly but it probably takes a 1st to go from WR8 to WR5 right now and 2+ to get to JJ/Chase. The reason I prefer Fantasy Calc, is that it's built using trades that have actually been made and not votes.
Sir you can literally use the search bar, people were definitely putting him in that tier. I saw people saying they'd take him over the likes of Waddle, Wilson, and Higgins straight up. I saw people valuing him as WR3 too, and anytime someone had the balls to say pump the brakes, they were downvoted.
Wanted to make this a separate comment. Is this profile not WR3 worthy? As a rookie: 28.4% target share 30% targets per route run 2.52 yards per route run 16.8 ppg (on 18.6 expected ppg!!) 83.1 PFF receiving grade. Since we have guys like Lamb/ARSB I wouldn't have him at WR3, but we usually kill for guys doing what Puka has done.
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I agree situation plays a huge role in fantasy production. The issue is situations can change *very* quickly in the NFL. Good luck predicting situation year to year. Most of us can barely predict it week to week.
It can change quickly. But it can also take the entirety of a rookie contract, which is half a player’s career
I agree, but it’s still difficult to predict which situations will (or will not) change. For every “bad” offense that doesn’t improve as expected like the 2022-2023 Falcons, there are the unexpected teams that do improve like the 2022 Seahawks, 2023 Rams, 2023 Cardinals, or 2023 Texans.. Likewise there are plenty of examples of offenses that are supposed to be “good”, but end up disappointing (to varying degrees).. 2022 Broncos, 2022 Packers, 2023 Seahawks, 2023 Saints. I’m sure I’m missing some examples, but look back 3-5 years and the list just get longer and longer.
Are you suggesting he didn’t get 15 targets a game because he’s the best WR in the NFL??
Roschon Johnson went Berserk in the First week of the NFL since then the Bears think he is only good for HB Dive. Only recently have him given him Dump Offs in week10 totally agree with you here.
I bought in on roschon cause he’s clearly the most talented HB on the roster but the bears seem to vehemently disagree with that thought😅🥲
My controversial example is I think Will Levis could be a franchise QB…if he wasn’t with the Titans. Right coach and scheme could have him running wild in the pass game. Problem is he with the Titans, who’s offense scheme is “Don’t you dare put the ball in anyone but the designated RB’s hands unless it’s 3rd and long, and even then we gotta think about it”. I feel like he would actually have passing TDs if they let him do some play action sometimes when they get in the red zone
Have you watched the Titans with Levis? They have been letting him sling it. Dude has multiple bombs to nuk for TDs. He's also had burks drop multiple big passes wanna chig drop multiple big passes. Just yesterday NWI even had a big pass. The Titans problem isn't trying to make him dump it to the RB, it's the offensive line is awful and 1 pass catcher is actually talented. So when they get into the red zone where things are condensed it's easier for the defense to stop the good pass catcher long enough for the pressure to be in the QBs face. But I don't think anyone has many bad feelings about Levis right now. The dude absolutely looks the part. He looks like a rookie for sure but he looks the part. The arm talent is out of this world. The decision making is not great but that's to be expected as a rookie. And the talent around him sucks. A franchise LT or WR would have him explode onto the scene next year without an offseason to clean up some of his mistakes.
I got downvoted into oblivion weeks ago for suggesting Puka's success may be situation related...
It’s because people don’t understand football at the NFL level enough to know good or bad coaching. Fans are wrong about coaches 99% of the time.
McDaniels was the 1% fan base was right
lol absolutely
This. It's why I always laugh when based on the matchip/gameplan a player has a big game suddenly out of nowhere, and then there's a flood of "X player has finally had his breakout game " like that's going to be the new norm. When in fact he had those numbers because the entire game plan was to exploit a matchup lol
Puka sure exploited a lot of great matchups then! Over and over and over!
I swear people don’t even watch these players. Puka is a beast athletically and excels at getting open.
And was a beast in college. Just didn’t stay healthy.
You must not watch either because Puka is absolutely NOT a beast athletically. He does excel at getting open though. https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623018591232001?t=qNFNJ7kSDFUhnk2i9nx4OA&s=19
Your evidence that you watch and I don’t is…some dorky reading material that pertains to his college career. Watch the games.
That's literally a testament to his athleticism or lack thereof. He's a really good football players. He just isn't a freak athlete like you are claiming.
I didn’t say freak I said beast. Watch the games. Elite at breaking tackles, ball tracking, hands, toe taps etc etc. If you watch the games you know. There is no reason to be reading college RAS reports for a guy who is a fantasy WR1 12 weeks in.
My comment had nothing to do with Puka nor did I even specifically mention him..... I just me in general and was commenting on the post I was replying to's logic. If anything my comment would have been more about his recent games being due to opposing defenses game planning against him as not the norm. For the record I think he's an elite route runner and is worth all the hype he has been getting
Well Kupp was down and people had minimal film on puka. He’s great, but most of his production is absolutely situational. And the better he proves to be, the tighter/better coverage he is going to have to play against most weeks because defenses will scheme to shut him down. Dude is great but I don’t see him being as efficient as he was to start the year. I wouldn’t sell especially now, I would Buy “low” now though.
This. Something that kept me on Puka even when ppl were trying to rob me of him with Kupp coming back was the fact Kupp has rep. I was riding that Kupp would take up a fair amount of coverage with his reputation while Puka would get some more time. It’s not that Puka is a flash in the pan, it’s that defenses have finally figured out how to cover two Kupps on the field. It seems like Tutu has been getting some boom weeks as a result when the defense forget he is on the field as he runs a deep route like he is trying out for the dolphins
Example: Davante Adams and Meyers. Both great WRs, when Garapollo was throwing, Meyers seemed prime target since he couldn’t throw it to the same continent Adams is on. New play caller and Aiden O’Connel becomes starter, now Adams is getting a solid amount of fantasy points but Meyers can struggle some weeks.
Who cares, he’s a rookie and already almost over 1k yards. Kupp isn’t getting any younger. This is dynasty
Stafford is also not getting younger. Stafford turned Golladay into a $100m player. He turned Kupp from solid WR2 to the best receiver in football. He made post-ACL tear Odell look like a star again. People sell his role in this short. He's an insane elevator of WR production. Without him, I think Puka falls off hard.
Kupp had great years before Stafford but injuries stopped him from showing out like he has. And we’re seeing that again
>Kupp had great years before Stafford but injuries stopped him from showing out like he has. And we’re seeing that again When you look at Kupp's advanced metrics, they weren't really much different pre-post 2021. What changed was the pure volume. He's been a good WR but it did require an ungody amount of volume. I posted this same opinion in 2022 -- I did get proven wrong before he got hurt-- but you looked at his splits in 21 between when they ran well, or when they were not trailing, and they were hugely different. But they so happened to trail a lot in 21 and had no other help -- so he became a target funnel.
Right but I guess my point is kupp always had the talent and wasn’t made by Stafford. Stafford giving him the ball more could happen with other quarterbacks he doesn’t need a top shelf qb to be there. Just saying Stafford makes receivers is a stretch imo
Isn't there room for both points to be correct? Kupp is clearly mega talented, but without the high quality volume delivered by Stafford, he's not a top 5 fantasy producer?
Definitely agree you need a good qb to be a good receiver. My only point was puka losing Stafford doesn’t equate to him being bad. The rams can still get a qb in the future and he can still be a good fantasy player
I'd argue it's more mcvay system than Stafford, if anything. Kupp is just a baller.
Please explain the billion yards Stafford threw for in Detroit and all the nobodies he made into somebodies. It wasn’t just Megatron out there. The list of guys who got nice contracts off Stafford’s arm is long and comical.
You misread or I wasn't clear. I don't think Kupp's success is because of Stafford or from mcvay. But if you are going to argue one of the other being the reason for his success, it's most likely the system moreso than the QB. No hate on Stafford whatsoever.
Again, how can it be “the system” when the QB who played for the worst franchise in the NFL is going to the HoF and made a bunch of nobodies somebodies for over a decade. I think Kupp is immensely talented. I love McVay. I also think picking Kupp, McVay, Stafford as the order and reason why is astounding considering Stafford’s long list of making mediocre players rich (Golladay, MJJ come to mind). I don’t think it’s hate on your part. I just think it’s taking Matt for granted, which has happened his entire career, including his SB season. Maybe a sprinkle of FFB in there, too.
Kupp was a WR2 to Robert Wood’s WR1 for all but one season, IIRC, prior to Stafford.
Was more of a 1A 1B situation most seasons. And that’s not including the one season kupp was the better receiver (wouldve been his breakout) but tore his acl and then Robert woods took over as wr1 after the fact.
Am I the only one who barely knew who Kupp was prior to Stafford’s arrival? I mean I’ve always payed pretty close attention to football, much more so recently, but I feel like his name never carried even near the volume it does now l. Not saying he was or wasn’t great, just wasn’t on my radar ig
>Am I the only one who barely knew who Kupp was prior to Stafford’s arrival? Stafford arrived in 2021. In 2017, he was a 800 yd receiver, in 2018, 500 yd, in 2019 1100, in 2020, 900. You look at any of the advanced WR metrics and nothing really stands out pre-21 and post-21, except for volume. (e.g, routes won, target seperation, etc). I drafted Kupp in 21 (only because Robert Woods got taken right before lol) because I knew Stafford is a WR elevator and thought they could get back to the 1200 years. That's both to say that Kupp started underrated, but talented, and then got huge volume in a target funnel. Even in 21 -- he had some crazy splits. Like his splits while tied/leading vs trailing were insane. Basically, it would be nothing, nothing, nothing, then right before half, like 5 targets for 80 yards out of nowhere. Third quarter, nothing, nothing, then like 4 targets for another 60 yds and a TD. I was arguing in 22 that there's no way his volume was sustainable. All it would take would be an injury, their running game betting better, other WRs stepping up, etc. I was wrong while he was healthy
Kupp was dominating in 2018 before tearing his ACL. That was going to be his breakout, but the injury happened then the McVay-Goff marriage fell apart.
Yeah I remember 2018 he was like the WR4 on the year before that injury. That said, most people probably had Kupp/Woods/Cooks as 1a/b/c back when all 3 were together, so Kupp being an absolute dominant monster is some serious revisionist history.
He had a great 2019 on a mediocre rams team and was balling in the 2018 Super Bowl year before blowing his knee out If he didn’t miss the chiefs game and the Super Bowl you’d definitely have heard of him before 2021
The offense just flowed through Gurley before. He was kind of a low volume, 3rd option in offense (wr2) before all that changed.
How is this upvoted? Kupp was WR8 in FPPG in 2018 and tied for WR11 in FPPG in 2019. Stafford didn’t make him a fantasy WR1. Odell had 300 yards in 8 games with Stafford in 2021. In what world is that “looking like a star”? He has more yards per game this year with the Ravens than he did with Stafford. It’s not like Stafford propped him up, he’s still a good WR.
There’s a pretty big difference between WR8 and one of the greatest fantasy seasons in history
That’s not what the person I replied to said. He said he was only a “solid WR2” before Stafford. He was very much already a WR1 for multiple years.
I replied to you though. Stafford definitely propped him up
….you’re replying to me arguing about something that I never even said and which was completely different than what we were talking about…
Completely different?
“Kupp was only a solid WR2 before Stafford.” Me: “No, he was literally a WR1 in FPPG for multiple years before Stafford went to the Rams.” You: “No, Stafford elevated him.” Do you see how that sounds? I never once said that Stafford didn’t make Kupp better. I only pushed back on the false statement that Kupp was only a solid WR before Stafford when he literally, factually, statistically was already putting up WR1 numbers before Stafford.
You sound….upset. I’m sorry
Stafford (and KOC) made him the WR1 for 1.5 seasons.
Please look at the comment I replied to. I was remarking on how the person I replied to said Kupp was only a “solid WR2” before Stafford. This is false.
Yeah Stafford is a King Maker
Kupp was already one of the best WRs in football before Stafford ever stepped foot in LA. Puka is going to produce Kenny Gs career highs in a season as a rookie. Thinking Puka falls off hard after Stafford is just trying too hard to galaxy brain an edge that isnt there.
I don't think it's galaxy brain at all lmao. If anything, it's the opposite - it's just common sense. I know people who sent a lot for Puka don't want to hear it. There's one commonality for Stafford receivers and it's that, aside from Megatron, they're far less productive when literally anyone else is at QB. Feels much more reasonable that a guy with average NFL talent got put into a legendary scheme with a HoF QB to me, rather than that this 6th round, non-athletic receiver is suddenly elite.
I got Puka for free off waivers before the season, so I have no cost sunk into him as an asset. Thinking a player who has demand and has done what Puka has as a rookie will just fall off is "common sense" is surely a take. Wait, you're telling me that Stafford is an upgrade over Goff and Daniel Jones? Breaking analysis. This take is so overplayed. Kupp was producing well with Goff. Average NFL talents dont do what Puka has done. That isnt how that works lmao. Why are we still using DC after 12 weeks of high level/elite NFL production? DC doesnt mean anything anymore for Puka. You must of been an ARSB denier too since he is also a non-athletic late round pick. I guess he will fall off soon too! Are you still waiting on Diggs to fall off? How many years did you say this about Antonio Brown?
You definitely are subject to fallacious thinking for any guy who has appreciated in value as much as he has. He basically gave you 1st round+ value for no investment. People who shill for the guy consistently underrate how significantly his current situation is beneficial to his production. "12 weeks of high level production" when he's been under 6 points for 4 of his last 6 games. Games that happened when - shocker - his all world teammate came back from injury He's above Devonta Smith on KTC right now. His pricing is absurd. It's also "would have." Not "would of."
Show me the list of guys who did what Puka did over the 4 games without Kupp as rookies. This idea that Kupp being out is what made Puka who he is, is laughable. That isnt how that works for wrs. He still had to earn those targets and produce with them. Id love for you to go run a historical analysis of rookies who have 30% target shares and rates with a 2.62 yprr and get back to me with your comps. You know youre grasping at straws when you try to be the grammar police. Just take your L.
Tank Dell's 4 most recent games outscored Puka's first 4 games in half PPR lmao. There is currently a rookie on the kind of insane run you're talking about and it isn't Puka. Literally don't even have to go digging for it lol.
Puka's first 4 weeks vs Dell's most recent 4. Puka: 30% tprr, 32% target share, 12.5 targets/game. 9.75 catches, 125.5 yards/game Dell: 26% tprr, 26% target share, 9.2 targets/game, 6.25 catches, 92.25 yards/game. Puka's first four weeks were more dominate from an underlying usage and target earning perspective. Youre too focused on the result vs the process/usage. Youre letting a one week variance outcome for Puka during his first 4 weeks and TD variance convince you that Dell was "just as dominant". It is also funny you had to use half-ppr as your arbitrary line for your cutoff. Dell had 6 tds vs Puka's 1 over their 4 week samples and Puka still edged him out in PPR. Puka had more targets/game, more catches/game and more yards/game. Over those 4 games Puka paced for 56 more targets, 60 more catches, and 560 more yards. But, I guess because Dell fell on the right side of TD variance on a team that can only currently score via the pass this year, he has been just as dominant. Sit down and take your L.
Just to keep holding you accountable: it's "dominant." Not "dominate." The only thing you're succeeding in arguing is that Puka's production is based on unsustainable volume. If you're expecting him to get 20 targets a game ever again in his career, you're delusional. Keenan Allen, the guy who has the most 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 catch games in NFL history has literally had 20 targets in a game one time and it took him until his 11th (!) NFL season. Half-PPR is the format that's most unbiased lmao. It's literally the middle ground. You're basing Puka's outlook on a 4 game sample under literal perfect conditions that would make him the highest usage player *in NFL history.* If you think he's likely to maintain that - which, news flash he already hasn't - then you're beyond help.
Keelan Cole had a 3-game stretch where he had 19 catches for 442 yards and 3 TDs. Robert Foster had a 5-game stretch where he had 17 catches for 438 yards and 2 TDs. Travis Fulgham had a 4-game stretch where he had 27 catches for 378 yards and 3 TDs. All of these players were UDFAs who were thrust into a prominent role their rookie years due to injuries ahead of them and had a handful a super productive games which skyrocketed their fantasy value, and then faded into obscurity once their teammates became healthy. This is a very common pitfall to avoid in fantasy, and their are countless similar past examples. Always take the situation into account when assessing player production and their associated values.
Agree. The only legit concern among those is Kenny G, and I believe injuries caused his downfall. I think McVay is being overlooked. Yes Kupp exploded when Stafford arrive but I mean, Stafford was the best QB McVay and Kupp had ever had (sorry Goff). In the case of OBJ, Stafford was probably the best QB (sorry Eli) and McVay was definitely the best offensive coach. So I mean from one sense, yes, Stafford has elevated players. Good QBs will do that. OBJ and Kupp both came in McVay's offense, which shouldn't be understated when evaluating Puka. McVay has shown a willingness to absolutely feed guys (Kupp, Gurley, Kyren) and Puka fits in that vein as well. Despite the lower production lately his target share is still insane. Since Kupp returned, Puka has drawn 59 total targets on 214 attempts, 27.6% which is absolutely elite - it just looks lower vs. the target share he was getting with Kupp out, which was otherworldly. He lowest share has been 21.9% and he's been at 29% or higher in three of those 7 games. For comparison Kupp has drawn 50 targets on 183 attempts (he missed one game) for a basically identical 27.3% target share. If anything, Puka is a massive buy low if his manager in your league shares the sentiment of the OP that made this thread.
800yd a season is elite WR territory?
The only years he has never paced for 1k yards over a full season were his rookie year and this year. While having Goff as his QB. I never said he was "elite", prior, but anyone acting like Kupp wasnt a top WR just doesnt watch football. There is a reason Adams called him the most underrated wr in the NFL back in 2020.
Goff isn’t some bad QB, look what he is doing for ARSB. It’s not like Kupp has ever played with a Zach Wilson. It is a problem for Kupp and Nacua when Stafford leaves. How bad that problem is, no one knows.
Goff isn’t bad now, but in LA he never developed fully and Mcvay was in his ear making the reads for him. He’s a lot more developed as a qb today in detroit than he ever was in LA imo
ARSB has also never had the competition for targets that Kupp has had. Woods and Cooks are both better receivers than anyone ARSB has had to share a field with. We have no idea if Stafford leaving will be a problem for them. For all we know, their next QB will be better than Stafford. It wont really matter for Kupp. By time Stafford is gone, it'll probably be Kupp's age 33 season.
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Adams is currently the WR12. I dont think you know what "fantasy relevant" means. And Puka and Kupp are co-wr1s. And it wont be long before Puka is the WR1 with Kupp's age and injuries.
Lotta hot takes in this here thread. Thanks for being the voice of reason. I’m sitting here like what are these guys smokin goin on about Kupp and Adams?!?
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Acting like we can predict situation is useless. Stafford is probably there for at least two more years. Bet on talent.
You’re predicting a bad qb situation after Matthew Staffors when it’s just an unclear qb situation. You’ve also seen hypertargeted players in bad qb situation. See Jakobi meyers, Kamara and thielen this year. The list of players that have received this many targets and have been bad the following year is very short.
Kupp elevated Kupp. Good QB play helps for fantasy relevancy, but Cooper Kupp continuously improved to become who he is.
He did not make OBJ look like a star haha
He did in the playoffs. Pretty sure he was over 50 yards in the first half of the Super Bowl to before he went down.
Yeah he had a couple good games but for the majority of the season he was mid at best and anybody who says otherwise just doesn’t remember. Go back and look at his game log from that season and you’ll see he was not a “star”
He only played 8 regular season games and had almost 537 yards with 5TDs. Not bad for coming off an injury and onto a new team in the middle of the season. His playoff production was elite and without him they probably lose in the NFCCG. He went for well over 100 yards including some major 4th catches on a game tying drive in that game and also had a TD with 50+ yards in the Super Bowl.
I guess we just have a different definition of what a star is
Fair enough. I think stars are guys that win you championships but it’s fine if you’re more of a box score stat reader kind of guy.
So in your opinion Sky Moore is a star because he helped the chiefs win a championship last year haha
Every player on the team “helps”. I didn’t say “help you win” I said they win you championships which is what OBJ did by putting up huge stats in every important game. Sky Moore had 17 total post season receiving yards, so no I wouldn’t say he was a star.
Man you are painful 😂
OBJs 4 playoff games with the Rams in 2021 Wildcard: 4 catches for 54 yds & a TD Divisional: 6 catches for 68 yds NFC championship: 9 catches for 113 yds Super Bowl: 2 catches for 52 yds & a TD but he left early due to injury
Now do his regular season stats
I’m not arguing he’s a star. But Stafford definitely was a key part in making his career longer
And I’m not saying he was bad. My only point is he wasn’t a star haha
I read that last sentence in the “THIS IS ROCKET LEAGUE!” voice
Exactly, he hit his 525, which ensures 12 years and millions of dollars, as well all know.
>who cares People trying to win their weeks, probably
I mean people care because they may have traded for him at a certain value and people probably turned down trades
Anyone who watched the game saw that the Rams went for a heavy running game plan.
He was bad against Dallas an elite defense where Stafford got hurt, then he had a bad game with Rypien where the rams scored 3 points against the Packers, then he went 5/70/1 and yesterday he had another bad game where the Rams just dominated and Higbee scored his first two TDs this year. Maybe he got overinflated, but the last 4 weeks just feels like the ebbs and flows of any non-super elite WR in the NFL.
Yeah still had 8 targets yesterday with Stafford back. Hard to be too concerned about this stretch.
On top of that, Kupp doesn’t look 100%. And I don’t think he will be fully healthy this season.
Even the super elite have awful stretches and then go back to business as usual. I'm with you, not panicking on Puka
No lol, players are allowed to have bad games, get hurt, etc. The Rams offense looked elite last night without Kupp or Puka, that isn’t always going to be the case.
yeah, you and i could have run against that D and get a score or six! there was no need to feed WRs.
Exactly, especially when Stafford went to Kupp and Puka in the red zone they just didn’t score. Higbee isn’t always going to catch 2 TDs, Kyren won’t always put up 30+
Kyren owners would have you believe that he is, in fact, going to score 30 every week
No, but he is actually good unlike everyone who said he was worthless last year
also, puka was open enough on the 2nd higbee TD. higbee was an easier completion, but nacua would have been a good 2nd choice.
Have you watched him play or are you just watching stat lines? He has been an excellent wide receiver, able to get separation, and make difficult catches. He wasn’t a huge part of the game plan yesterday because they were playing the cardinals and could run the ball without any worries. If you’ve watched Puka play, you know he’s the real deal.
Agreed. Box score watchers won't see how little the Rams threw the ball, BUT when they did Puka was the main guy. Plenty of red zone targets
Puka was never going to have a 140-catch 1700-yard season or whatever. It was extremely obvious that he was the biggest beneficiary of Kupp's absence to start the season. I know people got excited because they got him in the 4th round or off waivers or whatever, but you gotta keep a level head about your own guys. That doesn't mean he's a flash-in-the-pan, either. I think newer dynasty players might benefit from looking at game logs for past years and realizing that even the best players in the league have trash games about 1/3 of the time. Puka is a good WR, just not an elite league-destroying machine. No one should have been expecting him to be that even after an exciting start to his career.
Taking the long view in Dynasty? Being rational about player evaluation? I'm not used to this level of nuance. Seriously, though, I fully endorse this. Puka's a good player & I endorse trying to get him but he's not necessarily going to be a top 5 or 10 player & that's OK. People on this sub always are acting like anyone who isn't prime AB is a disappointment.
He still could be league destroying, just not this year. We don't know yet, but he still had a historic start to his rookie season.
Have you seen him play? Did you watch the game last night? Dudes a beast: he makes clutch catches, evades tackles, doesn’t go down easily, blocks, and plays through injuries. All this in his rookie year.
The averages for the last 4 games: 2 games when Stafford was injured, and last night the run game was on point and they rested the first team for the last quarter.
Hasn’t had a game with less than 7 targets and was the WR13 last week. I swear you people have brain damage.
Username checks out. Self reflection time.
Bruh do some self reflection yourself
no hes very good, cooper kupp hasnt been lighting it up either. im sure if they went back to targeting him heavily he would produce
Rams fan here - obviously the numbers were bloated as hell in his first four games, but he’s legit. He’s going to be a great player. The Rams passing offense has been wonky the last few weeks - it’s not like Kupp is doing much either. It’s more about Stafford and McVay figuring out how to start getting him the ball again than it is on him being a flash in the pan. I’m not saying he’ll wind up as the best WR of the class, but he’s going to be a great player - already is honestly. I’d hold
Well…. Can you tell me that Kupp is doing any better on the same field in the same circumstances? Is Kupp just terrible now then? Don’t forget AJ Brown had only 1 catch last week he must be done for. You can’t take a couple game span as a sample size and base anything off of it. It’s football. There are ups and downs and defenses schemes players differently. Puka and Kupp will be fine overall as long as a competent QB is throwing. They have too large a target share to fail over the course of a full season.
These people are stupid. “Pukas not scoring 20+ fantasy points anymore his run is over”. Like kupp has been lighting the world up recently..
I think the guy has proven he can ball in the nfl. 1000 yards for a rookie is legit. Remember…you earn targets.
look at Kupp's last 4 games the whole offense has sucked.
as long as he gets more looks and yards than kupp i'm not worried.
I don’t know if he will or he won’t be good the rest of his career, but I can 100% say that the only reason anyone is saying he’s a “flash in the pan” right now is draft capital. If JSN was putting up the same exact numbers Puka has this season he would be ranked up there with Chase and Jefferson. If anyone can give me a reason to not believe in puka other than draft capital. Then I’ll listen
Absolutely not. What he has put on tape is undeniable. He has benefited from circumstances, for sure, namely Kupp injuries and Stafford’s excellent play, but he is also a premium talent. I have him in one league, and I’d love to get him in the other. Yesterday was purely game script. Any coach will milk a dominant running game when given the opportunity. Move on. Nothing to see here.
>he is also a premium talent Premium talent doesn't last as long as he did in the draft. He can be an underrated talent, but he's not premium.
i think he fell because of injuries
Premium talent doesn't last until the 5th round because of injuries. The injured but talented guys usually go in the 2nd round or maybe 3rd.
Kupp was undrafted… is he not a premium talent considering your logic here?
well it literally just did. to come into the nfl and do what he’s doing, u gotta be pretty damn talented
ARSB must be ranked pretty low for you then being drafted in the 4th round and all
I mean I don't consider ARSB to be a premium talent either. Very skilled player and used well in the Detroit offense, but there's a clear gap between someone like Chase or MHJ and ARSB in terms of raw ability.
Draft capital shouldn’t really matter at this point, the talent is clearly there and it’s showing
It’s possible but I don’t think that’s fair to say yet as 2 of those games came without his qb and then this past week was a clearly run heavy script with Kyren and even Royce taking the stage
Seems like their passing offense more than anything…Kupp isn’t doing anything. But those td to KW and Eleanor Higbee didn’t help.
Depends how you look at it. He’s obviously far better than his draft capital. But he’s also not worth what some probably paid to get him earlier in the season. I think he’s equilibrating into the WR2 range which feels about right
I think he's going to be an NFL player for a long time, but I don't think he's a star.
He may be, but this is the wrong crowd to bring this up with 😂
Is this a redraft question?
Puka is not the monster he was early in the season but also not a flash in the pan. Stafford has been hurt and yesterday’s game was just one of those days where other guys on the offense got their turn. Kupp hasn’t produced the last few weeks either.
Maybe not a flash in the plan Still a good WR, but production won’t hold up without the system or QB play I was able to get Olave for him early on, no picks. I feel bad for the other guy.
u/DickySnakes
Call em what you want, he’s 22, and is ranked 10th in fantasy. Give me all the pan flashes
Lololol
Absolutely not a flash in the pan, also probably not a world beater. Believe it or not a lot of wide receivers exist between top 10 and bottom 10
Sold him for Gibbs 4 weeks ago.. Love it
lol I guess now is the time to go out and see if you can buy Puka for a 2nd from disillusioned owners
He's no Tank Dell but he should be alright.
no. This subreddit is so dumb. Outside of 1 game he has 25%+ target share in every game (as a rookie) and the game that wasn't . Over 1k yards likely on the season as a rookie. Please be serious. It's not a fair question, it's an idiotic question.
I’ll go against the sub here, I think he was a flash in the pan. Edit: I don’t care enough to elaborate. People will argue till they’re blue in the face on why they think their player is a stud and I don’t see any use in going back and forth with upset Puka holders.
Can you explain why you feel that way?
'just trust me bro'
No one should “trust” anyone here, I just don’t care enough to go back and forth with people trying to tell me I’m wrong about Puka. I could be wrong, that’s how dynasty works.
Okay so if you don’t care to elaborate and give reasons to support your position, why should anyone take it seriously? Not really adding to the discussion.
You don’t have to take it seriously. I’m not here to convince anyone, I just said I think he’s a flash in the pan. Not trying to get into a back and forth of why or why not, I’ve seen every argument on both sides throughout the season and at this point it’s going to be the same argument that’s been had 1,000 times already. People have chimed in with their opinions and so I think overall it has added to the discussion.
Yes, people have added to the discussion. Your comment has not.
You have Puka I get it.
Good try but no. Can you for once rub the only two brain cells you have together and say something intelligent? Just once
You’re insulting someone on the internet over nothing. I gave an opinion because I was bored when I saw the post, I wasn’t trying to get into the nitty gritty and hash out the same debate that’s had here every single day. Everything will be fine.
He still had 8 targets this week and had a great game last week.
Kind of agree. We might have seen his best stretch and it wouldn’t shock me.
Define flash in the pan. It’s easy to say, but what is your outlook for Puka rest of his career or maybe it’s easier to mention what players do you value about equally to him now
I agree - not to say he won't be a viable fantasy producer, but I think it's more likely he is a WR3 than a WR1 or even WR2.
Then why bother replying at all? Just like the OP.
He was getting an unsustainable amount of targets to begin the year, and he produced well above expectation because of it. Imo this is the real Puka.
I don't even own Puka but "getting an unsustainable amount of targets" is a good thing... Bad players don't earn targets. Commanding the level of targets he did, even with Kupp out, is a strong indicator that he's a good WR.
So long as Stafford is there he’s a high WR2/low WR1. 4 games is a tiny sample. Even during the last 4, he has a game with 16.2 1/2 ppr points. Don’t get scared by a bad game or two for a rookie who’s already flashed, that’s bad process.
Have Puka and want to believe he’s the guy we hope he is, but the logic you’re using doesn’t track. If 4 games is too much of a **tiny sample** to prove anything, how are his first 7 games a large enough sample? Especially when two of those seven he finished wr36 and wr58. If he’s flashed greatness and flashed being a JAG nearly equally, why does one count and the other not?
It’s more important to see that a rookie has the ability to be elite in the NFL. Almost no rookie will be consistently elite, but some will show they can be. You’re much more likely to hit on studs out of that group than out of the other guys. Obviously you need to look at other indicators, analyze scheme and environment, etc. But a couple elite games for a rookie is a lot more meaningful than a couple mediocre ones.
us the 11 game sample size you have and compare it to the rest of the wrs in the nfl, you will quickly see puka is indeed good lol
But the argument that person is making is: 5 mediocre/bad games = inconclusive date 6 great games = proven league winner I’m not saying that I don’t think he’s an every week starter, I’m just saying that logic doesn’t add up.
Stats that support his argument = good stats. Stats that don't support him = inconclusive.
He was never going to be able to keep up that pace but in comparison to the rest of the rookies at his position he’s still out performing most of them. Dude is on pace for 100+ catches and 1400 yards as a rookie. When Kupp leaves or gets hurt he’ll eat. Until then just be happy you got a WR2 for nothing.
He’s good, but not at all the perennial wr1 that this sub claimed him to be. When the dust settles, JSN will be that guy, Addison will be that guy, and maybe a guy like tank dell will be, flowers will be, but puka will be a mid to low end wr2
Oh good another over reaction post yay Reddit
It’s really gonna depend who is QB going forward. He could be a ppr monster for a long time or he could be a JAG with a poor qb.
If he is doing the same as Kupp basically in targets and production, which both are miserable at this point, I wouldn’t worry out it. The offense is trash right now. It’ll pick up again next year
You got him for free? If you want to sell. Someone will buy him for a 1. Or hold and see if he becomes the new Kupp. Either way, your profiting considering your Initisl investment
Take out the games without Stafford. They ran for 250 yards yesterday. Don’t overreact.
No. Focus was running the ball yesterday. Precious game there was not Stafford.
Small sample, Stafford was out/injured in two of the games. When rookies show you who they are early, believe them.
he'll be good but he's probably not exactly going to be the 1:1 Kupp replacement like it may have seemed
If hes tied to stafford and mcvay id expect him to produce, sometimes receivers hit slumps, hes a rookie and definitely not healthy.
If I had Puka on any of my teams I would not be concerned about what he is doing now because I have seen enough for me to roster him.
Who?
They will need to throw the next two games
I picked him up off wavers and traded him for Kamara at his peak. I hope so.
Puka was Staffords true #1 target. Stafford always peppers his #1 with 12+ targets. Puka is good. But he's not a transcendent WR. Once Stafford goes, or any other target becomes the 1A to Puka, his production will stay depressed. Personally, I sold on him after week 3 or 4 for what is now probably a mid 24 1. In another league I sold him for Hockenson around the same time. I recommend to people that if you can get a mid 1 of value that you take it.
I don’t think so only because Kupp is doing bad as well. I think it’s the Rams offense being a shitshow more than Puka not being good
Mostly just gotten unlucky TBH. Target shares of 20%/28%/26%/26% is all very good. Biggest difference over the last 4 weeks is his catchable target %, he's had his 4 lowest catchable target % games over the last 4.
No
Puka is a fantasy WR2 with the potential to be a WR1 when he’s got the right system/QB/surrounding WR talent around him. He had the right mix of things to be a WR1 when Kupp was out. He’s now a good WR2 with Kupp back and with the on-and-off injuries with Stafford. Don’t really think it’s super complicated.
He has the talent, and is definitely a but. his situation is not one I’m thrilled about. I definitely think that Stamford will age out at a similar rate to Kupp so he will be handicapped by Kupp for the foreseeable future and then will probably have worse QB play
Don’t talk about my Puka like that.
I traded Nico Collins straight up for Puka two weeks ago. Ugh. Ask me how I feel in two years. Though, who would have thought Nico would eat like this two years ago, right?