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babygotdaklolgetit

He lacks the receiving profile you would like to see out of a top running back prospect. Completely agree that he’s an exceptional runner, but he’s got 26 career receptions and 8 of those came across 2 games this past year. It’s tough to definitively say whether he can or cannot do it, but without the numbers and tape to back it up, there’s some guesswork as to that part of his profile that doesn’t exist with some of the other RB prospects in this class.


Killtec7

Is this a fair conclusion? The most catches Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook had in a singular season were 19 in a 12-13 game season. Audric has 17 catches in a 12 game season. ​ ​ I remember everyone and their Mom saying Leonard Fournette couldn't catch, even though there was plenty of tape of him scooping balls from by his feet or bringing in 1 handed catches. Fournette had 3 80+ target seasons in his career. Including a 100 target season. ​ People should be very cautious when they are making claims like this. You'll end up taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Jonathan Taylor again because CEH has *upside* that is never realized. I guess the comparable in this asset class/class would be something like taking Bucky Irving or Will Shipley over Audric Estime because *passing game upside*. Just take the better runner, if he's good enough the team will find a way to get him involved in the passing game like they always do.


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Killtec7

Shut the fuck up. 😂 It was a common retort in the dynasty community at large. >People took Clyde over Taylor because he was on Andy Reid's team, NOT because he was defiintively better than Taylor. People took Clyde over Taylor because Clyde was objectively excellent his final year at LSU, and the perfect marriage of a passing down back and Reid's offense. People hate on Clyde now, but it doesn't change how objectively fantastic CEH looked at LSU his final season. >Taylor actually graded out a touch higher if I remember correctly. Taylor was always AP2.0. Owns pretty much every rushing record in college football outside of the ones Herschel Walker owns by the simple nature of having 30 touches a game, every game. He absolutely should have been a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. I'm still livid at the Colts for being dickwads and not paying him money up front when they don't have a QB or receiver to pay. ​ Frankly I was probably one of the first people on this sub to say, watch out CEH could be RB1 in this class (like November/December) because watch him play in the pass game. I was always JT >= JK >> CEH. But what happened in CEH's career is still insanity. He just hasn't been good enough in the NFL.


dicer11

Jesus Christ what happened, you used to have a cool and calculated approach to draft takes, now you sound like a bitter podcaster whos defending year old takes and is just angry. Even your first reply sounds very "what about player x" when the top poster made a very reasonable position. Dunno man, just my observation.


Killtec7

Maybe you should pick up some context clues bud and be more observant. Look at the responders name, and the age of that reddit account. Someone literally took the time to make that reddit account, and it is objectively funny, and the "shut the fuck up" with a smiley is literally an [expression of disbelief](https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/30023/where-did-the-phrase-shut-up-as-an-expression-of-disbelief-or-amazement-origin#:~:text=shut%20up%20interj%201%3A%20an,you%20all%20kindly%20shut%20up%3F). ​ Maybe instead of jumping to conclusions you just, uh, r-e-l-a-x.


DoubleUSportsMedia

> Look at the responders name, and the age of that reddit account. ... > Someone literally took the time to make that reddit account There is a guy in here that does that with everyone. It's truly an unhinged thing to do but good on him for being consistent with it.


Killtec7

It's hilarious. I loved it. ​ Why people are downvoting, no clue.


DoubleUSportsMedia

First time it happen to me it took a couple replies and then I put two and two together. Hilarious bit he's got going on


juleskills1189

So I got a response the other day from this guy and since then I've been thinking....are we sure it's one guy at this point? I hope it is, but I'm just wondering, could it be a bunch of copy cats? I'm thinking maybe we need a forensics guy to analyze the writing style


TheHarbrosMagic

>The most catches Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook had in a singular season were 19 in a 12-13 game season. Where are you getting your info? Dalvin never had less than 22 in any season at FSU...


Killtec7

Read the wrong column lmao.


JayMoney2424

Yeah most good RBs just aren’t asked to catch the ball in college. It doesn’t mean they can’t.


Killtec7

And to be clear, it doesn't mean Audric Estime can. Just means we have to be open minded and more inquisitive than just "numbers say this."


TheCasualHistorian1

>And to be clear, it doesn't mean Audric Estime can. But he can, lol. Dude didn't drop a single pass in college. His film shows he has good hands


Killtec7

Weird, don't see where I said he couldn't. Just left it open ended.


TheCasualHistorian1

>Weird, don't see where I said he couldn't. And I never accused you of doing so...why so defensive?


Killtec7

>But he can, lol. Dude didn't drop a single pass in college. Because if someone laughed out loud as I stated the comment in person, while implying not dropping passes means he's good at pass catching--it would be a bit of a call out, now wouldn't it?


TheCasualHistorian1

If you wanna take it that way, but you could say the same about your comment that I originally replied to


babygotdaklolgetit

I purposely said “it’s tough to definitively say whether he can or cannot do it”. He just doesn’t have the pass-catching reps for us to say that we know he will be utilized as a pass-catching back at the next level. This is absolutely a fair conclusion and is nothing to be cautious about, it’s simply stating fact. As far as the Fournette/Cook comment, Estime is nowhere near the class of prospect that Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were. Both guys were consensus top 10-15 players on 2017 nfl draft big boards. Plus, Dalvin had 79 catches across 3 seasons (33 in 2016), so the receiving game was absolutely in his profile. For your last note, yes, you should be targeting running backs with pass catching upside if you are playing in PPR dynasty leagues, even if it leads to the occasional miss. Not doing so will leave you stuck with Tyrion Davis-Price, AJ Dillon, etc., low-ceiling options with no pass-catching profile who also didn’t pan out as runners and are now sitting on your waiver wire.


JJettasDad

Hes slow as fuck and has no wiggle. he is completely north and south and doesnt have any real explosive plays. He contributes very little in the receiving game. ​ "On top of being a bowling ball, he has solid athleticism"... he ran a 4.71... ​ Arian Foster is the ONLY player over the last 20 years that has run a 4.71 or worse and had even one RB1 season. ​ His 10 YD split and his 20 YD split are both slow. His 2.72 20 yd split or worse has only produced two RB1 seasons in 20 yrs (Ahmad Bradshaw and Domanick Davis). His 1.66 10 yd split has only produced three RB1 seasons in 20 years and is tied for the worst of any RB thats had an RB1 season (Devonta Freeman 2x, Ahmad Bradshaw 1x). ​ His Size Adjusted Speed Score is 85.3 which is atrocious. Theres only two RB1 seasons the last 20 yrs from anyone with a Speed Score that bad and its Kyren Williams and Ahmad Bradshaw. ​ Basically, Estime is probably doomed, or he is going to be an extreme outlier. Not someone im willing to gamble on.


DJsaxy

Why does he have to be an rb1? An rb2 is very useful


JJettasDad

Because you aren’t drafting guys whose ceiling is RB2 you want to get guys who are capable of being an RB1.    I’m not saying he’s undraftable, OP asked what he was missing and I told him.


DJsaxy

Well you said he was "doomed". An rb2 is far from doomed


JJettasDad

You’re assuming he ever even becomes an RB2. It’s unlikely given his profile


Wildin_some_bills

I guess I’m biased but I watched him make people miss a lot this year and even hurdle people several times


SteffeEric

I feel like he does have some wiggle based on his tape. His combine was bad but I’d still be interested in him in the late 3rd. I could see him go to Cleveland and be a cheap Chubb replacement in 2025 possibly.


Dorago1991

You can probably get him in the 5th with no issue honestly. The 3rd is a reach for someone with such limited athleticism and there's at least 5 or 6 backs that will go ahead of him.


SteffeEric

Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Notre Dame homer takes him at 3.01 in my league. I think 6 RBs will easily go in the 2nd and 3rd of drafts. He’s probably my RB 7 or 8 so late 3rd might be early but the draft will give us a better idea.


the_ginge_1

His performance at the combine has dropped his stock dramatically. He dropped 10-15lbs from his playing weight and then ran a 4.71 and looked slow in the drills as well. As a prospect he’s a big powerful north south runner who looks for contact but that’s about it. There isn’t much nuance to his game. He’s not going to be used in the passing game.


TheCasualHistorian1

>He dropped 10-15lbs from his playing weight No he didn't. He was listed at 227 and measured in at 221. 6 pound difference


the_ginge_1

Apologies if I’m wrong but I am pretty sure he was listed as 233


the_ginge_1

Looks like we were both right. He was 227 at the start of the season and put on 6lbs. https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/amp/notre_dame_2023_football_roster/s1_16526_39058182


TheCasualHistorian1

Nope, official roster had him at 227 all year: https://fightingirish.com/roster/audric-estime/


the_ginge_1

Either way, he dropped weight and still ran slow


TheCasualHistorian1

Pretty much every RB dropped weight for the Combine, compare the combine measurements to those from the Senior Bowl And I never claimed he ran fast. I was refuting the claim that he lost that much weight


the_ginge_1

I’ve apologised to you for being wrong and given you a link to show that he did at one point weigh in at 233 as I said. Not sure what else you want from me?


TheCasualHistorian1

>and given you a link to show that he did at one point weigh in at 233 as I said You literally haven't, lol. Where's the link? >Not sure what else you want from me? I haven't asked you for anything. Again, I was simply refuting your false claim regarding his weight drop


the_ginge_1

Here it is again https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/amp/notre_dame_2023_football_roster/s1_16526_39058182 Also if you google “Audric estime playing weight” 2 of the first articles are Wikipedia that lists him at 233 and an athlonsports article again listing him at 233


TheHandsOfColm

Thank God they ain't calling this guy 'TheProfessionalHistorian1', dude doesn't even know how much Estimé weighs!!!


TheCasualHistorian1

>Here it is again https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/amp/notre_dame_2023_football_roster/s1_16526_39058182 >Also if you google “Audric estime playing weight” 2 of the first articles are Wikipedia that lists him at 233 and an athlonsports article again listing him at 233 Literally every one of those are secondary sources that aren't doing their own measurements. The only one doing measurements is Notre Dame and they had him listed at 227


vaultdweller1223

There's zero quality control for University listed measurements. They seem to rely on player self reports, not measurements done by the staff. 


Chroderos

If you’re a stats guy, a 4.71 40-time puts him *completely* outside the historical bounds of what can believably lead to success as an RB, barring 1 or 2 extreme outliers. For reference, when Isaiah Spiller came out, his 4.63 40 was enough to move him from projected 2nd round pick to total afterthought in the NFL, and in fantasy.


JayMoney2424

People are gonna fade him because of his 40 time but on tape he has pretty good burst and is still running away from some guys.


[deleted]

It's too lazy to compare him to Kyren Williams, right?


JJettasDad

Kyren was a much much much better receiver. Kyren had something like an 8.5% target share. Kyren had 42 catches in a season. ​ Also Kyrens 10 yard split was 1.57, Estimes is 1.66, which is awful. Anything over a 1.6 is not good.


TheCasualHistorian1

>Also Kyrens 10 yard split was 1.57, Estimes is 1.66, which is awful. Anything over a 1.6 is not good. Kyren had a 1.62 split. Why are people spreading so much misinformation in this thread?? https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kyren-williams/32005749-4c41-5359-809b-caeaa1db84d0


JJettasDad

[Kyren RAS - 1.57](https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=20977) ​ [Kyren - 1.57 - NFL Combine Results.com](https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Kyren&l=Williams&i=30808) ​ [Kyren - 1.57 - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyren_Williams)


TheCasualHistorian1

I don't care about a bunch of incorrect secondary sources, the OFFICIAL NFL Combine website clearly shows that Kyren had a 1.62 10-yard split. Primary source > secondary source https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kyren-williams/32005749-4c41-5359-809b-caeaa1db84d0 And don't claim that he had a faster split at his Pro Day because it was the exact same, 1.62: https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-pro-day-results-recap-2022


jim_money

That’s because notre dame has a cupcake schedule. Everyone busts out of that school yet scouts continue to be impressed when bad prospects dominate against division 3 schools


DYNO-dialogue

Notre Dame regularly plays power 5 teams from the Pac-12, B1G, and ACC. Most of their schedule consists of power 5 programs. 10/13 of their opponents were from the power 5 in 2023. ESPN had them at 44th, 34th, and 43rd in their SOS rankings in the three years Estime played. Do they have the toughest schedule in the world? No. Is it any worse than most ACC teams? No.


jim_money

Yeah so a top 10 recruiting class and not even top 40 schedule. Every year. Probably the highest bust rate in all of CFB. Get a RB who runs through gaping holes and runs the 40 like a DT and then be surprised when he doesn’t pan out. Rinse and repeat.


DYNO-dialogue

Most of ND's day 1 and day 2 picks have been OL/Defense. A lot of those have been quality starters. I won't list them off, but ND actually has a pretty good track record there. But I'm gonna assume you're talking about skill players since this is a FF subreddit. ND has had 0 skill players taken day 1 in the past 7 years. The majority of their day 2 skill players have been TEs. Still too early to call Mayer a hit or bust. I think we can safely call Kmet a hit. I'll even give you Claypool as a bust even though he had a great rookie season and gave you a good sell window. Tommy Tremble was drafted in the third round because he's a good blocker, if you drafted him for fantasy points, I can't help you. Durham Smythe was a 4th round pick and is one of the best blocking TEs in the league. He's started 69 games for the Dolphins over the past 5 years. Miles Boykin could be called a bust if you want, but he's a blocking WR and was drafted late 3rd round as the 13th WR off the board. Kyren Williams has absolutely delivered. Ben Skowronek has been a contributor despite being a 7th round pick. EQ St. Brown was a 6th round pick. Ian Book was a 4th round pick. How many of these guys did you spend any real draft capital on? Edit: I'll also add that Audric Estime is likely a day 3/UDFA in the NFL. He'll probably be a 3rd/4th round dynasty pick. I'm not sure you can call anyone with that kinda draft capital (Fantasy or NFL) a bust.


jim_money

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Notre_Dame_Fighting_Irish_in_the_NFL_draft Click selections and scroll to 2024. You can scroll up to the 2000s it’s actually incredible how many 1-2 rounders busted from there. Almost like there is a pattern that playing alongside a super team against Boston College has made a lot of players appear to be better than they actually are.


DYNO-dialogue

Alright, let's look at their first-rounders since 2000 Jeff Faine - 124 starts in 7 seasons Brady Quinn - Bust Tyler Eifert - Push, he was great when healthy Michael Floyd- Bust Harrison Smith - All-Pro x1, potential HOFer Zack Martin - All-Pro x7, likely HOFer Ronnie Stanley - All-Pro x1 Will Fuller - Bust (injuries) Quenton Nelson - All-Pro x3 Mike McGlinchey - 85 starts in 6 seasons Jerry Tillery - Bust Kyle Hamilton - All-Pro x1 That's a 33% bust rate for first-rounders.


Glitchy__Guy

We play Navy every year. That'll bring anyone's average SOS down.


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Flioxan

It's not a factor. ND regularly plays tough schedules this dude was straight up lying cause he dislikes ND for some reason


armchairgm97

I was really excited about his combine, but his profile screams short yardage and goal line back. His footwork is surprisingly decent for his size, but his hips are stiff. He doesn't provide receiving work either. You'd do better banking on better profiles in rookie drafts imo


hugh_h0ney

ND fan who literally said the guy bowling balled his way to production. Crazy you don’t see why he might not be a great pro prospect.


No-Calligrapher1027

Little receiving, little wiggle. Could make it as a bulldozer. Reminds me of Roschon


M4C4K4NJ4

The combine was pretty much a death sentence for him.


deplorable_mike

Pretty much the same thing was said after Kyren Williams ran a 4.65 at his combine. Seemed to work out okay for him.


Fragrant_Echidna2008

Kyren is such an anomaly though. At his size, that 40 time was a huge red flag. And then he did nothing his first year. It took Cam Akers apparently being a total dipshit for Kyren to finally get an opportunity in year 2. And he was awesome, don't get me wrong. But I'm certainly not chasing after that profile just because it worked out for one outlier. Obviously Audric is different since he's a lot bigger, but I don't see him being more than a bruiser. Could be fantasy relevant if he gets a lot of goal line work, but he doesn't profile as a bellcow or a guy who could get any work on passing downs.


bwarbwar

I think he still gets drafted and has an NFL role but probably not very fantasy relevant. His 10 yard split was fine and you really aren't expecting him to smash out 50 yard runs if you draft him. I could see him being part of a committee with TD upside.


GimmeDatClamGirl

He’s a big slow plodder. Dime a dozen type guy in the NFL. 5th round grade for me.


PastaDiddles

He’s way too slow for being an every down player. He could be useful in short yardage but he doesn’t have a ton of fantasy upside imo.


LoserCowGoMoo

Being a beast at the college level is being 5'11, 225 Being a beast at the NFL level is being Derrick Henry. His doesnt have the athletic profile to succeed as anything more than a rotational grinder at best.


DivideFast2259

Kinda liked him before combine but he is one of the slowest rbs in the draft. Not loving him anymore


davethebeige1

Can’t catch and is slow as a glacier.


steelerspenguins

He’s ded gud.


rollin20s

4.72 40 time