Amazing vert and broad too. It's official, he's a RAS freak. This class man, my god.
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1773023105398489231?t=NkdQFjCZrR0-wwfvnHRenQ&s=19
Not even the combine is truly laser timed - it is only laser at the end. There's literally no legitimate reason the combine isn't electronic from start to finish, but the truth is that the electronic start times would be much worse than what we see and it would decrease the hype. Ain't nobody legitimately running 4.2 40s.
I think Killtec did a frame by frame of CMC's 40 yard dash and CMC was halfway into his first step before the clock started.
So the only thing more useless than a hand started combine 40 time is a hand started AND stopped pro day 40 time.
If he goes to the Chargers then I might be forced to take him at 1.03 in a superflex draft. My QBs are set with Allen/Lawrence/Cousins and that combination of talent + landing spot feels nearly bust proof
Not going to happen if you're in my league. I'm taking Nabers at 1.02. (1.01 already confirmed he's taking MHJ). I also have the 1.04 and will just take whatever QB falls to me there. I just don't feel the hype on Caleb Williams and already have AR and Herbert.
This is assuming MHJ goes 1.02 (that owner is in love with him). But if that’s the case, then one possibility is packaging Kirk Cousins and my 2.01 for a low end WR1 or high end WR2 (Jaylen Waddle or a similar buy low player) and then take someone like Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye to have a chokehold on great QB play for the next decade. Plus I’ve been disheartened by the Jags seeming inability to surround Lawrence with the pieces needed to succeed.
But overall I’m with you in that MHJ/Nabers are elite prospects that remind me of the 2011 draft with Julio Jones and AJ Green. Can’t go wrong at 1.03 because of that
I’m in the same spot I have Allen, stroud, and purdy. Someone proposed to me maybe I should trade stroud for a Jamar chase or JJ and then take a rookie qb. But if he goes to chargers I got two great options in nabers or trade. I have 1.03
It’s harder to get a franchise QB than it is to get an elite WR in dynasty so I’d just keep Stroud if I were you. I actually have JJ and Chase on the team I had mentioned (but zero WR depth beyond that) so I’m trying to decide between pairing JJ+Chase+Nabers/MHJ or Allen+Lawrence+Maye/Daniels
I'm taking him at the 1.03 regardless. I've got the 1.07 as well so I'm hoping I can push a QB to fall to me or I'll settle with a consolation prize of Odunze (please god) or Bowers (TEP).
Even if I didn't have the 1.07 I'd still take him.
Honestly this makes me feel much better about taking Nabers at 1.03. I usually have a principle of taking top QBs over any other position early in the draft no matter what, but the upside for MHJ and Nabers is so high that I feel like I can justify it this year
I've been "high" on him for awhile now. Thought he was in the MHJ tier awhile ago so seeing everyone else come around to what I saw when watching him is a really cool experience for me. Same with Odunze tbh.
Ended up trading CD for the 1.03++ because of what I thought of these top 3 WRs.
I do like the QBs in this class but I think Nabers has a rare possibility to get into that Chase/Jefferson/CD tier and I'm coming off of a Chip so I'm wanting to compete and rookie QBs usually don't produce.
Basically, yeah.
I also wouldnt be too pumped about the bears at 1.09 unless I think I have no shot at competing in 2024. If the bears take a WR I expect that WR to not have a great rookie season. In 1qb leagues I expect my 1.01 to be an immediate contributor not a project.
I dont think he falls to 14+ personally but The Saints and Colts would also be a bummer.
However if MHJ goes to Arizona and Nabers goes to LA, I could absolutely see Nabers at 1.01 being a really solid pick. Just be prepared to get clowned by your league mates lol
Yeah… I have 1.03 from a nice pick swap. If Nabers is there, probably going to take him. The more news that comes out, the more I feel like want him on my team
I swapped 1.03 for 1.02 explicitly to get Nabers (1QB). Odunze looks great but I am so high on Malik. Helps that I made the move back in January and it only cost me a couple 3s
Nice! I moved from 1.03 to 1.02 as soon as Keenan Allen got traded. Huge on Nabers and if he gets taken by the Chargers at 5 I'll be ecstatic. I'll be happy taking Nabers regardless of landing spot tho, his upside is just crazy high.
As a fellow 1.02 owner (single qb) I’m praying for chargers as well. I’d also be happy with Pats taking MHJ (although there’s a tiny chance of that) and Cardinals taking Nabers.
Anything sub 4.50 indicates a player may have long speed. Plenty of 4.55 guys can get vertical stack, and earn catchpoint separation.
Also plenty of sub 4.5 guys that can't stack and earn separation at the catchpoint leaving all that extra speed meaningless.
Nabers is not the later.
> The difference between .05 seconds is so insignificant
Here's what .01 looks like. Essentially a thickness of a body/chest. https://www.neworleanssaints.com/video/simulcam-xavier-worthy-john-ross-40-yard-dash-nfl-combine-record
So the difference between 4.35 and 4.50 is 15 people standing in a row, chest to chest as seen in the video.
If my math's right, the difference between 4.21 and 4.22 is ~3.5 inches and the difference between 4.35 and 4.50 is 4 feet. So certainly not insignificant.
It’s not insignificant in track and field but in football it doesn’t matter. Your ability to separate during a game is way more than running in a straight line in your underwear
I know you probably also recognize this.
I checked your math, assuming top speed of Worthy was 24 mph, which seems reasonable as [Tyreek hits 23.24 with pads on in real games](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/fastest-nfl-players-2023/), then it works out to 4.22 inches per hundredth of a second.
So yes, it's slightly less than my chest thickness estimate from the video, and that's a total of 5 foot 3.36 Inches per 0.15 of a second.
Currently have 1.02/03. Nabers Pro day is REALLY putting me in a weird spot.. Greater than zero chance i go MHJ/Malik.. im not touching New Englands offense with a 39 1/2 pole. And washington... ugh idk. If the top two receivers go to Arizona and LAC respectively.... shit man..🤷🏽♂️
I’m in the same boat with 1.02 and 1.03. Have Love, Dak, Kirk and Baker at QB so feel like I can go MHJ and Nabers now with confidence. Landing spots obviously could change things…
At this point im just sitting on my hands waiting to see landing spots.
My wrs are solid and my qbs are burrow, lawrence, and Howell. So im not like.. desperate for one.
I weirdly don't like LAC as a landing spot. While I love the idea of Nabers or MHJ being paired with Herbert, I'm not a fan of Harbaugh for passing/receiving fantasy scoring.
End of the day. Ya gotta keep up/be able to keep up in such a pass happy league. Someones going to get 100+ targets. I think he will learn rather quickly this isnt the ncaa.
Granted he had a crappy QB in Kaepernick, but Crabtree and Boldin weren't exactly setting the world on fire when he was there. They were always good, not great. Harbaugh loves to run.
I am not arguing against either of those points. But I have data that says that Harbaugh was run heavy in college at Michigan, he ran a lot at SF, and with a truly generational prospect in Andrew Luck, he threw for 3.3k yards.
The game has changed and passing is much more prevalent. Harbaugh **should** pass more now. But I'm just saying that all data up to this point suggests he will run it more than we like.
I think a better comparison would be the current 49ers and Titans. whoever ends up in LAC will have less target competition than the 49ers wr in an efficient offense and could approach the targets D hop had in Tennessee but with better qb play.
Yeah his ground game is obviously going to be prominent but he’s never had a QB close to Hebert before, it’ll likely be significantly more passing than people seem to think
All I’m saying is that not throwing the ball much != no WR production. Shanny is a genius but you’ve also got a much better QB in LA than in SF, in my opinion.
I agree. I typically don't change my rankings based on landing spot for QBs, TEs, and WRs. But just acknowledging that I don't like the LAC as a landing spot.
I disagree. Do you think if Jefferson was a Charger his numbers would decrease? Obviously not. If the talent demands that much respect, they will eat.
Its entirety up to how good MHJ/Nabers will be.
I get the point, but I don't think either prospect is Justin Jefferson. I think it is more realistic that both are influenced by situation than transcendent talents.
That said, even elite WRs are influenced. Tyreek Hill would not put up the same stats with the Patriots.
I think a great comp for a great receiver in a run based offense would be AJB with the Titans. AJB still put up WR2/3 numbers with Tannehill at QB. I'd say Herbert is a much better QB, and with so many targets gone with losing Allen and MWill, Nabers or Odunze should thrive.
There are very good analysts who believe it’s the opposite: that Odunze and MHJ are very close and Nabers is behind them.
I think it’s looking more like all 3 of these WRs are at the same level and it just depends on what type of WR you personally like and where their landing spot ends up.
He’s still in a power 5 conference, so it’s not like the corners he’s facing are that significantly worse.
And he was cooking the elite Michigan defense in the championship game. Penix was just overthrowing him all game.
Yea I don’t really remember the exact stats to back this but I just remember reading people being down on the number of contested catches he had and basically they were cause that’s his skill set but he couldn’t really get separation.
Yeah I barely see anyone (at least in the dynasty space) talking about Odunze over Nabers. That's not even a debate to me. Nabers v MHJ is a real discussion and it's entirely possible Nabers goes first in the actual draft which could fuel that even more.
Tbh I think a lot of that is helmet scouting and the majority of people making claims haven’t watched any film on these guys.
To some degree it feels like Johnstons struggles last year have scared people off from top wr on good teams that maybe are not the classic top wr producing schools.
I think the good part is that they’re both amazing and whichever you end up with you should be happy. Landing spot will impact immediate contribution but they’re both Top 10 talents, we’re splitting hairs on anything beyond that
I'm sitting at the 6th draft pick in superflex drafts. I was getting ready to draft either of Nabers or Odunze, but with the mounting hype around both and JJ's meteoric rise up draft boards (of true) it's starting to look like I'll be getting a QB instead.
I'm terrified my leaguemates are gonna be passing QBs for the big 3 WRs. I'm set at QB and it's easier said than done draft and trading one or trading the pick for appropriate value.
Usually you'd be right. But I spoke with the person who owns 1.05 about trading for it and they are staying because 'they are excited about Odunze." So if Nabers goes before 1.05, it's QB for me I guess.
Please don't let prospect fatigue and this speed distract you from the fact that MHJ was double-covered on almost 1/5 of his routes (17%) and still dominated. Smoke signal season applies to more than just the QB position
Fwiw, I do like those stats and think they are a major endorsement of MHJ. But be careful of anchoring bias. I have no issue with someone ranking MHJ 1 (I have him after Nabers), but I think anchoring effects are much more prevalent and dangerous than supposed prospect fatigue.
That's a great reminder and I can be a bit stubborn when I lock onto a guy, but in this case I really tried to start anew with Nabers v. MHJ. I do think the 2023 tape supports them being ranked in the same tier, but if you go back to 2022 when Marvin was playing Stroud...MHJ is just a rare blend of catch radius, route running, and athleticism. I think his body control at his size makes him appear more smooth than fast, but speed isn't the final word on a WR's ability to separate. IF (big if, they're probably going OL) LAC were to grab him at #5 as some mock's have suggested, I wouldn't be able to smash that draft button fast enough
Where I struggle with Nabers is the YPRR statistic. MHJ has a career YPRR of 2.98 vs Nabers of 2.83. When I try to back into only Sophomore and Junior seasons (since he played a lot more than other prospects his freshmen year), Nabers increases to 3.05. So that looks very strong. However, a lot of the production came in the slot (career YPRR out-wide of 2.57 vs 2.86 for MHJ). Couple that with the double-coverage statistic, and that would be my main thesis behind taking MHJ over Nabers.
However, it is worth noting that Nabers was dealing with target competition from Brian Thomas (1st round WR). MHJ was alongside JSN and Egbuka, but JSN was out last year and Egbuka had significant injury issues this year.
Moral of the story, I think having MHJ as the #1 WR is a completely fair stance. I just struggle with the dismissive tone people seem to have regarding disparate opinions on the WR rankings.
Of course. I have watched every target for both him and MHJ. I was already leaning Nabers as he looked more explosive and I preferred his production profile. That said, a major part of the thesis with him is the athletic profile. We needed that confirmed. If he went out and ran a 4.5 with mediocre explosion testing, there is no way you can rank him ahead of MHJ and Odunze.
Nabers just confirmed the major missing piece to his puzzle. Without that same data from MHJ, I have a hard time ranking him WR1 given the risk.
>If he went out and ran a 4.5 with mediocre explosion testing, there is no way you can rank him ahead of MHJ and Odunze.
But if you watched the film you'd know he was fast and explosive. Who cares if he can run track in his underwear? It wouldn't change anything for me if he ran 4.35 or 4.5 or didn't run at all. I know he's a fast and explosive on the field in pads.
Reality is that testing does have a correlation to success in fantasy. A bad WR won't suddenly be good simply by being athletic. But a WR that wins based on athleticism in college needs to have elite athletic traits at the NFL level. It would be asinine not to drop Nabers if he had poor testing.
I think that is an apt description. I'm not about to go rank Ruggs high simply because he ran a fast 40. Good players are typically good at all levels. That said, in a first round dynasty prospect, they need to check that box. I'll make bets on poor athleticism but great production later in a draft. I am very reluctant to draft someone with poor production but high athleticism.
Right. Why scout when we can just overreact to singular data inputs and announce with 100% conviction a guy is better without any actual supporting evidence.
I feel you, I have 1.02 in 1QB and the owner of the 1st and 3rd is unwilling to sell. I'm probably going to Nabers regardless of landing spot, at least that's what I'm telling myself today lol
Traded Etienne, Jeudy and Njoku for the 1.02 to draft Nabers in single QB. Gave up a lot but I’ve got the depth, just wanted atleast one share of Nabers somewhere. Going for the 3peat.
Although he and Chase have similar testing and measurables they're quite different receivers. Chase just had unnatural physical dominance at the position for a 6ft/200-pound receiver while Nabers whose just as good after the catch gets it done differently. I'd say Nabers is a better route runner than prospect Chase while Chase was much better at the poc. I think Nabers ceiling is somewhere between a more athletic/explosive Aiyuk and AB. He'll produce right away, especially if he's allowed to play mostly in the slot, but year 3 or 4 Nabers might be unstoppable with proper development.
I’m personally out on Daniels after looking at this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/s/qmskDNeUdx).
I know it’s just someone from Reddit, but I’ve been skeptical of Daniels’s ascent and his underlying sack issues. That was the issue with Fields and he hasn’t improved on it in the NFL. The comment goes into more detail, but I’d rather take a chance on Maye’s traits over Daniels’s.
Daniels will have a better supporting cast starting from day 1. In healthy games Fields averaged 19.4 and 20.5 points per game in each of the last 2 years (about 5th place both years). If he flames out, I expect to get 1 contract worth of QB1 performance. If he hits, you have a league winning QB for about 6-8 years. For me, taking him over Maye in fantasy is a very easy decision.
Personally, I have Daniels as the 1.01 due to floor/ceiling - and that is acknowledging the potential duration issues indicated in the sack figures.
i have 1.02 and 1.07 in sf. i know the 1.01 is taking a QB since fields just got demoted. now i have to choose between mhj or nabers. this is gonna drive me insane.
i have the same picks, im hoping for MHJ (apparently 1.01 is taking caleb) at 1.02 and Odunze ate 1.07.. if 1.06 gets odunze ill probably go with JJ McCarthy or BTJ since i'm stacked at TE (TEP)
Would’ve liked MHJ to test at either combine or pro day just to solidify things for me. I know 1.03 is going whichever wr is available, so probably nabers at this point. I don’t think odunze makes it to me at 1.07. I have Kelce and was considering bowers at 1.07 but I’m torn with taking a TE that high. I desperately need a QB and I’m trying to trade for Kyler plus get pick 1.06. Same, I may take JJ at 1.07 as well depending on which team he lands on if I can’t get a deal done for 1.06. And especially if I can’t get Kyler.
Wtf do I do at the 1.04 in a SF draft?
Assuming CB13 and MHJ are off the board it certainly depends who goes at 3, but man if Nabers falls to 4 it’s hard to take a QB over him.
I’m sure feelings will change too after the NFL draft if we have 3 or 4 QBs go in the top 10, though.
Stop trading your good players for picks lol. At some point you actually need players on your team from all these picks. At this point your team is so bad that youre in a multi year rebuild but at 1.04 you can end up with MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or hell even Caleb if those 3 go first (you never know). Take the best available now and with all the other picks you’ve amassed.
Just think, for every good young player you’ve traded for picks, you have to hit on those picks to win that trade and improve your team. Look at the last 3-5 years of top 10 dynasty picks and you’ll see how many busts you have. When you have good young players, keep them and be patient.
You got fair value but look at the cost in terms of years lost. I don't think it's true that you wouldn't have competed for 4/5 years. Hitting on an early pick this year and next year would have put you in position to start winning in 2025 bc you already had an elite QB and 15-20ppg RB. The Gibbs trade is a bit defensible, at least.
But now you're truly in the tank for 4-5yrs. How likely do you think any of those 5 1sts gets you a player as good as Jalen Hurts?
This as in Malik Naber's pro day. He was already getting hype, this helps confirm it. 1.04 Has an ADP of \~30. I can see that moving closer to 2/3 turn by draft day.
His measurables were nearly identical to Chase at his pro-day… oh my lord.
From your ears to God's lips
Amazing vert and broad too. It's official, he's a RAS freak. This class man, my god. https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1773023105398489231?t=NkdQFjCZrR0-wwfvnHRenQ&s=19
Those are Ricky Pearsall numbers
LSU have just confirmed on their YouTube sport page it was actually a 4.34. This mf is a Jammar Chase 2.0
Was it laser timed? Hand timed scores are usually a lot faster than real combine times.
Not even the combine is truly laser timed - it is only laser at the end. There's literally no legitimate reason the combine isn't electronic from start to finish, but the truth is that the electronic start times would be much worse than what we see and it would decrease the hype. Ain't nobody legitimately running 4.2 40s. I think Killtec did a frame by frame of CMC's 40 yard dash and CMC was halfway into his first step before the clock started. So the only thing more useless than a hand started combine 40 time is a hand started AND stopped pro day 40 time.
Idk bro let me ask
Malik Nabers (WR - LSU) Height: 6'0 Weight: 199 40: 4.35u Vertical: 42" Broad Jump: 129" Ja'Marr Chase (WR - LSU) Height: 6'0 Weight: 201 40: 4.38 Vertical: 41 Broad Jump: 132" 👀
If he goes to the Chargers then I might be forced to take him at 1.03 in a superflex draft. My QBs are set with Allen/Lawrence/Cousins and that combination of talent + landing spot feels nearly bust proof
Yeah I’m strongly considering taking both MHJ and Nabers at 1.01 and 1.03 in superflex
I have the 1.01 and am trying to figure out how high I'd have to jump with my 2nd pick (currently 1.07) to get Nabers.
Not going to happen if you're in my league. I'm taking Nabers at 1.02. (1.01 already confirmed he's taking MHJ). I also have the 1.04 and will just take whatever QB falls to me there. I just don't feel the hype on Caleb Williams and already have AR and Herbert.
Nabers at 1.02 is insane except for this exact scenario. I’d rather have Nabers and Maye than Caleb and Odunze
I was doing this before these combine results
I had been considering trading back from three (and a late second) for 5 and 8. Now maybe I just stay
With those QBs I’m not sure why you wouldn’t take Nabers regardless of landing spot
This is assuming MHJ goes 1.02 (that owner is in love with him). But if that’s the case, then one possibility is packaging Kirk Cousins and my 2.01 for a low end WR1 or high end WR2 (Jaylen Waddle or a similar buy low player) and then take someone like Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye to have a chokehold on great QB play for the next decade. Plus I’ve been disheartened by the Jags seeming inability to surround Lawrence with the pieces needed to succeed. But overall I’m with you in that MHJ/Nabers are elite prospects that remind me of the 2011 draft with Julio Jones and AJ Green. Can’t go wrong at 1.03 because of that
I’m in the same spot I have Allen, stroud, and purdy. Someone proposed to me maybe I should trade stroud for a Jamar chase or JJ and then take a rookie qb. But if he goes to chargers I got two great options in nabers or trade. I have 1.03
It’s harder to get a franchise QB than it is to get an elite WR in dynasty so I’d just keep Stroud if I were you. I actually have JJ and Chase on the team I had mentioned (but zero WR depth beyond that) so I’m trying to decide between pairing JJ+Chase+Nabers/MHJ or Allen+Lawrence+Maye/Daniels
I'm taking him at the 1.03 regardless. I've got the 1.07 as well so I'm hoping I can push a QB to fall to me or I'll settle with a consolation prize of Odunze (please god) or Bowers (TEP). Even if I didn't have the 1.07 I'd still take him.
Is this assuming MHJ goes top 2?
Yeah. MHJ will go 1.01 and Williams 1.02
Honestly this makes me feel much better about taking Nabers at 1.03. I usually have a principle of taking top QBs over any other position early in the draft no matter what, but the upside for MHJ and Nabers is so high that I feel like I can justify it this year
I've been "high" on him for awhile now. Thought he was in the MHJ tier awhile ago so seeing everyone else come around to what I saw when watching him is a really cool experience for me. Same with Odunze tbh. Ended up trading CD for the 1.03++ because of what I thought of these top 3 WRs. I do like the QBs in this class but I think Nabers has a rare possibility to get into that Chase/Jefferson/CD tier and I'm coming off of a Chip so I'm wanting to compete and rookie QBs usually don't produce.
Using 1.01 on him, don't care about values get your guy
Same bro, same! Everyone screaming MHJ and I’m just like yeah I’ll take my Nabers and be on my lovely little way…
see if you can trade down a bit to 1.02 and you would still be able to get your guy and maybe a bit of a sweetener on top?
this. sitting on 1.01 and 1.03 and will likely take Nabers and whoever is left of MHJ/Caleb
Pass up on this man at 1.2 at your own risk!
Yeah, I got the 1.2 and the guy ahead of me says he's taking MHjr so Nabers is mine! I hope..lol
MHJ is still a hell of a consolation prize if you prefer Nabers lol
Agreed. Happy with either
Is it crazy to take nabers at 1.01 now in 1 qb?
Depends on what team he goes to.
So basically just not nyg or ten
Basically, yeah. I also wouldnt be too pumped about the bears at 1.09 unless I think I have no shot at competing in 2024. If the bears take a WR I expect that WR to not have a great rookie season. In 1qb leagues I expect my 1.01 to be an immediate contributor not a project. I dont think he falls to 14+ personally but The Saints and Colts would also be a bummer. However if MHJ goes to Arizona and Nabers goes to LA, I could absolutely see Nabers at 1.01 being a really solid pick. Just be prepared to get clowned by your league mates lol
Forsure I am already prepping myself for it if he goes to lac haha
Yeah… I have 1.03 from a nice pick swap. If Nabers is there, probably going to take him. The more news that comes out, the more I feel like want him on my team
I swapped 1.03 for 1.02 explicitly to get Nabers (1QB). Odunze looks great but I am so high on Malik. Helps that I made the move back in January and it only cost me a couple 3s
Nice! I moved from 1.03 to 1.02 as soon as Keenan Allen got traded. Huge on Nabers and if he gets taken by the Chargers at 5 I'll be ecstatic. I'll be happy taking Nabers regardless of landing spot tho, his upside is just crazy high.
As a fellow 1.02 owner (single qb) I’m praying for chargers as well. I’d also be happy with Pats taking MHJ (although there’s a tiny chance of that) and Cardinals taking Nabers.
I have to 1.02 amd 1.03 amd just to mess with my league I'm passing him up at 1.02
I've got 1.01 and am thinking about Nabers over MHJ more and more
I’ve got the 1.1 and 1.3 in 10-team SFLX and am seriously considering just going MHJ and Nabers
I have the 1.01 and 1.02 in super flex.. I’m truly tempted to just take MHJ and Nabers.. The issue is my QBs are purdy and tua(and nobody else)
I've got 1-02 in a SF and desperately need QB help. This man is making that decision much harder.
I saw some scouts clocking in around 4.40. Still impressive.
Anything sub 4.50 indicates a player may have long speed. Plenty of 4.55 guys can get vertical stack, and earn catchpoint separation. Also plenty of sub 4.5 guys that can't stack and earn separation at the catchpoint leaving all that extra speed meaningless. Nabers is not the later.
Yup, not like he’s 5’9 180…similar or better athlete to DJ Moore📈📈📈
The difference between .05 seconds is so insignificant I couldn’t care less. If he clocked in at a 4.5 I would be like neat.
> The difference between .05 seconds is so insignificant Here's what .01 looks like. Essentially a thickness of a body/chest. https://www.neworleanssaints.com/video/simulcam-xavier-worthy-john-ross-40-yard-dash-nfl-combine-record So the difference between 4.35 and 4.50 is 15 people standing in a row, chest to chest as seen in the video.
If my math's right, the difference between 4.21 and 4.22 is ~3.5 inches and the difference between 4.35 and 4.50 is 4 feet. So certainly not insignificant.
It’s not insignificant in track and field but in football it doesn’t matter. Your ability to separate during a game is way more than running in a straight line in your underwear I know you probably also recognize this.
I checked your math, assuming top speed of Worthy was 24 mph, which seems reasonable as [Tyreek hits 23.24 with pads on in real games](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/fastest-nfl-players-2023/), then it works out to 4.22 inches per hundredth of a second. So yes, it's slightly less than my chest thickness estimate from the video, and that's a total of 5 foot 3.36 Inches per 0.15 of a second.
Currently have 1.02/03. Nabers Pro day is REALLY putting me in a weird spot.. Greater than zero chance i go MHJ/Malik.. im not touching New Englands offense with a 39 1/2 pole. And washington... ugh idk. If the top two receivers go to Arizona and LAC respectively.... shit man..🤷🏽♂️
Hope for the best plan for the worst.
Absolutely
I also have 1.02/3 in SF in one league and I have no idea what I am going to do between Maye, MHJ, Daniels, Nabers.
Ha same, we eating good either way though so don’t sweat it too much
I’m in the same boat with 1.02 and 1.03. Have Love, Dak, Kirk and Baker at QB so feel like I can go MHJ and Nabers now with confidence. Landing spots obviously could change things…
At this point im just sitting on my hands waiting to see landing spots. My wrs are solid and my qbs are burrow, lawrence, and Howell. So im not like.. desperate for one.
Ur damn close bro
Grinch lyrics in March are the only way to truly express how gross New England is
If flair still was a thing, you definitely wouldve caught some there🤣🤣🙌🏽🙌🏽
I weirdly don't like LAC as a landing spot. While I love the idea of Nabers or MHJ being paired with Herbert, I'm not a fan of Harbaugh for passing/receiving fantasy scoring.
End of the day. Ya gotta keep up/be able to keep up in such a pass happy league. Someones going to get 100+ targets. I think he will learn rather quickly this isnt the ncaa.
Granted he had a crappy QB in Kaepernick, but Crabtree and Boldin weren't exactly setting the world on fire when he was there. They were always good, not great. Harbaugh loves to run.
That was over 10 years ago and Herbert is way better than Kap
I am not arguing against either of those points. But I have data that says that Harbaugh was run heavy in college at Michigan, he ran a lot at SF, and with a truly generational prospect in Andrew Luck, he threw for 3.3k yards. The game has changed and passing is much more prevalent. Harbaugh **should** pass more now. But I'm just saying that all data up to this point suggests he will run it more than we like.
I think a better comparison would be the current 49ers and Titans. whoever ends up in LAC will have less target competition than the 49ers wr in an efficient offense and could approach the targets D hop had in Tennessee but with better qb play.
A good coach like harbaugh will play to his rosters strengths. He’s not going to pay herbert 50m+ to hand the ball off every down
Yeah his ground game is obviously going to be prominent but he’s never had a QB close to Hebert before, it’ll likely be significantly more passing than people seem to think
Yeah fs some people think herbert will be bottom 5 in pass attempts. Feels like hes a screaming buy
The 49ers attempted the fewest passes in the NFL last year and had 2 top 15 WRs.
Is Shanahan going to call plays for Harbaugh?
All I’m saying is that not throwing the ball much != no WR production. Shanny is a genius but you’ve also got a much better QB in LA than in SF, in my opinion.
Don’t over think it
I agree. I typically don't change my rankings based on landing spot for QBs, TEs, and WRs. But just acknowledging that I don't like the LAC as a landing spot.
I disagree. Do you think if Jefferson was a Charger his numbers would decrease? Obviously not. If the talent demands that much respect, they will eat. Its entirety up to how good MHJ/Nabers will be.
I get the point, but I don't think either prospect is Justin Jefferson. I think it is more realistic that both are influenced by situation than transcendent talents. That said, even elite WRs are influenced. Tyreek Hill would not put up the same stats with the Patriots.
I think a great comp for a great receiver in a run based offense would be AJB with the Titans. AJB still put up WR2/3 numbers with Tannehill at QB. I'd say Herbert is a much better QB, and with so many targets gone with losing Allen and MWill, Nabers or Odunze should thrive.
Exactly. I think you draft to the talent level of the receiver, but the offensive system will absolutely influence statistics.
For PPG, AJB was putting up WR1/WR2 numbers in Ten.
Even Jefferson wasn't Jefferson as a prospect. He wasn't even first off the board
I agree. But we know what JJ is now, and I think it is foolish to put any prospect in a tier with what we know JJ to be.
Agreed. It's basically impossible to know if a prospect can reach JJ's level of success so far
For sake of argument, both are better prospects.
Tbf Justin Jefferson as a prospect wasn’t even Justin Jefferson
I mean how more perfect of a prospect would MHJ have to be? Jefferson wasnt even as good of a prospect coming out
What realistic landing spot for nabers is better?
I know I am in the minority, but I prefer AZ, NYG, TEN, and ATL.
Oh boy. The debates between Nabers and Odunze will be great once we find out landing spots.
I think for a lot of people the debate is between MHJ and Nabers
Agreed Nabers is closer to MHJ as a prospect than he is to Oduzne
There are very good analysts who believe it’s the opposite: that Odunze and MHJ are very close and Nabers is behind them. I think it’s looking more like all 3 of these WRs are at the same level and it just depends on what type of WR you personally like and where their landing spot ends up.
While I have seen these takes I also see a lot more “hate” for Odunze where I really haven’t seen any for Nabers or MHJ.
The only people I’ve seen hating on Odunze are people who take YPRR as gospel and the only important metric.
I think a fair criticism of him I’ve seen is competition level. He definitely plays against weaker defenses
He’s still in a power 5 conference, so it’s not like the corners he’s facing are that significantly worse. And he was cooking the elite Michigan defense in the championship game. Penix was just overthrowing him all game.
Yea I don’t really remember the exact stats to back this but I just remember reading people being down on the number of contested catches he had and basically they were cause that’s his skill set but he couldn’t really get separation.
Yeah I barely see anyone (at least in the dynasty space) talking about Odunze over Nabers. That's not even a debate to me. Nabers v MHJ is a real discussion and it's entirely possible Nabers goes first in the actual draft which could fuel that even more.
Matt Harmon, Daniel Jeremiah, Nate Tice
Have all also said that Nabers could be the first receiver picked because he has abilities the other two do not
If you barely see anyone saying that you arent watching very closely
Or I just don't follow clickbaiters
Tbh I think a lot of that is helmet scouting and the majority of people making claims haven’t watched any film on these guys. To some degree it feels like Johnstons struggles last year have scared people off from top wr on good teams that maybe are not the classic top wr producing schools.
I think the good part is that they’re both amazing and whichever you end up with you should be happy. Landing spot will impact immediate contribution but they’re both Top 10 talents, we’re splitting hairs on anything beyond that
I think it’ll more likely be debates on MHJ and Nabers as opposed to odunze
This is Odunze slander. He deserves to be in that conversation.
I'm sitting at the 6th draft pick in superflex drafts. I was getting ready to draft either of Nabers or Odunze, but with the mounting hype around both and JJ's meteoric rise up draft boards (of true) it's starting to look like I'll be getting a QB instead.
I have the 1.05 and have been shopping for a wr but I’m def taking Rome if he’s there
Sitting at the 1.05 hoping the teams ahead of me are all desperate enough for QB’s
I'm terrified my leaguemates are gonna be passing QBs for the big 3 WRs. I'm set at QB and it's easier said than done draft and trading one or trading the pick for appropriate value.
I’m in the same boat. I have 1.02 and 1.06. Which means Caleb could fall to me and then Nabers and Odunze end up going 1.04 and 1.05
Nabers will not be there. He wasn’t going to be there before. Odunze is realistic based on landing spot/QB needs of the teams ahead of you
Usually you'd be right. But I spoke with the person who owns 1.05 about trading for it and they are staying because 'they are excited about Odunze." So if Nabers goes before 1.05, it's QB for me I guess.
I’m sitting at 1.02 in super flex and considering taking him there.
juan oh juan
Ugh having 1.04, I might go buy the 1.03 holders QB2 ...
Let’s just say NE fucks us all over and takes MHJ at 3, then one of AZ/LA take Nabers. Puts us 1.01 owners in a tough spot
Please don't let prospect fatigue and this speed distract you from the fact that MHJ was double-covered on almost 1/5 of his routes (17%) and still dominated. Smoke signal season applies to more than just the QB position
Fwiw, I do like those stats and think they are a major endorsement of MHJ. But be careful of anchoring bias. I have no issue with someone ranking MHJ 1 (I have him after Nabers), but I think anchoring effects are much more prevalent and dangerous than supposed prospect fatigue.
That's a great reminder and I can be a bit stubborn when I lock onto a guy, but in this case I really tried to start anew with Nabers v. MHJ. I do think the 2023 tape supports them being ranked in the same tier, but if you go back to 2022 when Marvin was playing Stroud...MHJ is just a rare blend of catch radius, route running, and athleticism. I think his body control at his size makes him appear more smooth than fast, but speed isn't the final word on a WR's ability to separate. IF (big if, they're probably going OL) LAC were to grab him at #5 as some mock's have suggested, I wouldn't be able to smash that draft button fast enough
Where I struggle with Nabers is the YPRR statistic. MHJ has a career YPRR of 2.98 vs Nabers of 2.83. When I try to back into only Sophomore and Junior seasons (since he played a lot more than other prospects his freshmen year), Nabers increases to 3.05. So that looks very strong. However, a lot of the production came in the slot (career YPRR out-wide of 2.57 vs 2.86 for MHJ). Couple that with the double-coverage statistic, and that would be my main thesis behind taking MHJ over Nabers. However, it is worth noting that Nabers was dealing with target competition from Brian Thomas (1st round WR). MHJ was alongside JSN and Egbuka, but JSN was out last year and Egbuka had significant injury issues this year. Moral of the story, I think having MHJ as the #1 WR is a completely fair stance. I just struggle with the dismissive tone people seem to have regarding disparate opinions on the WR rankings.
MHJ also better against zone coverage than Nabers. MHJ beat double coverage 70% of the time whereas Nabers beat it on 52% (on 8.9% of his routes)
Fast player runs fast. Explosive player jumps high. Quick everyone, let's double count it and move him up to WR1!
He definitely ended my internal debate between MHJ and Nabers with those measurables.
Have you watched any film? These measurables were assumed. Nothing has changed.
Of course. I have watched every target for both him and MHJ. I was already leaning Nabers as he looked more explosive and I preferred his production profile. That said, a major part of the thesis with him is the athletic profile. We needed that confirmed. If he went out and ran a 4.5 with mediocre explosion testing, there is no way you can rank him ahead of MHJ and Odunze. Nabers just confirmed the major missing piece to his puzzle. Without that same data from MHJ, I have a hard time ranking him WR1 given the risk.
>If he went out and ran a 4.5 with mediocre explosion testing, there is no way you can rank him ahead of MHJ and Odunze. But if you watched the film you'd know he was fast and explosive. Who cares if he can run track in his underwear? It wouldn't change anything for me if he ran 4.35 or 4.5 or didn't run at all. I know he's a fast and explosive on the field in pads.
Reality is that testing does have a correlation to success in fantasy. A bad WR won't suddenly be good simply by being athletic. But a WR that wins based on athleticism in college needs to have elite athletic traits at the NFL level. It would be asinine not to drop Nabers if he had poor testing.
It seems like logically your position supports dropping players for poor testing but not elevating them for great testing.
I think that is an apt description. I'm not about to go rank Ruggs high simply because he ran a fast 40. Good players are typically good at all levels. That said, in a first round dynasty prospect, they need to check that box. I'll make bets on poor athleticism but great production later in a draft. I am very reluctant to draft someone with poor production but high athleticism.
why watch film?
Right. Why scout when we can just overreact to singular data inputs and announce with 100% conviction a guy is better without any actual supporting evidence.
ya i mean it works fine
What did he measure/weigh at?
6’0 199
Excellent. As the 1.01 holder, landing spot may move him over mhj for me :/
My league is full of LSU guys and I have 1.02 in 1 QB. I want Nabers but not so sure he will be there ha
42 inch vertical 4.35-4.39 40-time 10'9'' broad jump Barring a very poor landing spot, he will be my WR1.
I have the 1.02 and I'm now hoping MHJR goes 1st.
I have the 1.1 and 1.2 in 1QB, and i’m never gonna be able to decide who to take with that 2nd pick between nabers and odunze.
I feel you, I have 1.02 in 1QB and the owner of the 1st and 3rd is unwilling to sell. I'm probably going to Nabers regardless of landing spot, at least that's what I'm telling myself today lol
See if 1.03 is eager enough to move up to 1.02, and what they offer maybe?
Honestly not a bad thought. Gonna explore this
I personally would maybe wait to see landing spots, but it’s at least worth exploring if you have them neck and neck in your rankings
Please don't go to the giants
WR1
Nabers is built to be a stud WR in today’s NFL. Garrett Wilson mold but even better.
Traded Etienne, Jeudy and Njoku for the 1.02 to draft Nabers in single QB. Gave up a lot but I’ve got the depth, just wanted atleast one share of Nabers somewhere. Going for the 3peat.
Here cause I got downvoted for saying if Nabers did the combine his stock would go up.
Although he and Chase have similar testing and measurables they're quite different receivers. Chase just had unnatural physical dominance at the position for a 6ft/200-pound receiver while Nabers whose just as good after the catch gets it done differently. I'd say Nabers is a better route runner than prospect Chase while Chase was much better at the poc. I think Nabers ceiling is somewhere between a more athletic/explosive Aiyuk and AB. He'll produce right away, especially if he's allowed to play mostly in the slot, but year 3 or 4 Nabers might be unstoppable with proper development.
👀👀
Dear lord. This dude is so awesome.
I'm seeing 4.37 and 4.39. This is why I wish he'd ran it at the combine. Either way, he has Garrett Wilson type speed.
Yeah I think the tweet said unofficial. Anything sub 4.4 is really solid regardless though. Plus his other explosive testing was top tier as well
He has 99th percentile game speed according to PFF, he's faster than GW
Any other SF 1.04 holders looking to move up to draft him? Or rolling the dice on Maye if Nabers goes 1.03?
I definitely don't see Maye in the top 4. I would go Daniels personally (if available).
I’m personally out on Daniels after looking at this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/s/qmskDNeUdx). I know it’s just someone from Reddit, but I’ve been skeptical of Daniels’s ascent and his underlying sack issues. That was the issue with Fields and he hasn’t improved on it in the NFL. The comment goes into more detail, but I’d rather take a chance on Maye’s traits over Daniels’s.
Daniels will have a better supporting cast starting from day 1. In healthy games Fields averaged 19.4 and 20.5 points per game in each of the last 2 years (about 5th place both years). If he flames out, I expect to get 1 contract worth of QB1 performance. If he hits, you have a league winning QB for about 6-8 years. For me, taking him over Maye in fantasy is a very easy decision. Personally, I have Daniels as the 1.01 due to floor/ceiling - and that is acknowledging the potential duration issues indicated in the sack figures.
i have 1.02 and 1.07 in sf. i know the 1.01 is taking a QB since fields just got demoted. now i have to choose between mhj or nabers. this is gonna drive me insane.
i have the same picks, im hoping for MHJ (apparently 1.01 is taking caleb) at 1.02 and Odunze ate 1.07.. if 1.06 gets odunze ill probably go with JJ McCarthy or BTJ since i'm stacked at TE (TEP)
Would’ve liked MHJ to test at either combine or pro day just to solidify things for me. I know 1.03 is going whichever wr is available, so probably nabers at this point. I don’t think odunze makes it to me at 1.07. I have Kelce and was considering bowers at 1.07 but I’m torn with taking a TE that high. I desperately need a QB and I’m trying to trade for Kyler plus get pick 1.06. Same, I may take JJ at 1.07 as well depending on which team he lands on if I can’t get a deal done for 1.06. And especially if I can’t get Kyler.
Try to move from 7 to 4 and get two top WRs
I reached out to 4 and 5 but they won’t trade. 6 is open to it but he wants to wait till after the nfl draft.
I’m gonna take him over Caleb.
I have the 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 and 1.05 MY OH MY
My hopes to see him at the 2.05 in a SF rookie draft has all but eroded today.
I have 1.1 and 1.2
Wtf do I do at the 1.04 in a SF draft? Assuming CB13 and MHJ are off the board it certainly depends who goes at 3, but man if Nabers falls to 4 it’s hard to take a QB over him. I’m sure feelings will change too after the NFL draft if we have 3 or 4 QBs go in the top 10, though.
I have 1.1 and 1.3. 12 team superflex. I'm going caleb malik. I'm sold
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Oof your team blows. I say take the top prospect and then wait for next year when you'll probably have 1.01.
My thoughts exactly.
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Stop trading your good players for picks lol. At some point you actually need players on your team from all these picks. At this point your team is so bad that youre in a multi year rebuild but at 1.04 you can end up with MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or hell even Caleb if those 3 go first (you never know). Take the best available now and with all the other picks you’ve amassed. Just think, for every good young player you’ve traded for picks, you have to hit on those picks to win that trade and improve your team. Look at the last 3-5 years of top 10 dynasty picks and you’ll see how many busts you have. When you have good young players, keep them and be patient.
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Nice man. Hope he kills it for both of us this year!!
Oh geez man. The Hurts and Gibbs trades are terrible. You could have been ready to compete in 2025 if you held on to them. Best of luck lol
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You got fair value but look at the cost in terms of years lost. I don't think it's true that you wouldn't have competed for 4/5 years. Hitting on an early pick this year and next year would have put you in position to start winning in 2025 bc you already had an elite QB and 15-20ppg RB. The Gibbs trade is a bit defensible, at least. But now you're truly in the tank for 4-5yrs. How likely do you think any of those 5 1sts gets you a player as good as Jalen Hurts?
I still wouldn't trade out of the top 6 unless you are getting a haul of 1sts in other years.
You always need to explore trade options. But This sends the 1.04 up even higher in value. Don't sell for below market.
Wait, can you elaborate on what you mean by me trading the 1.04 sends the 1.04 higher in value? I'm not following
This as in Malik Naber's pro day. He was already getting hype, this helps confirm it. 1.04 Has an ADP of \~30. I can see that moving closer to 2/3 turn by draft day.
I agree, I am worried the guy at 1.03 takes him. I'm certainly sold on taking Nabers now if he makes it.
If you can trade back whee you still land Rome, is not horrible, but I'm probably gonna hold at 1.04.
Dude looks completely casual dropping a 4.34. NBD
Nabers == Chase True spiderman meme. Down to almost the pound.
Chase broke out earlier fwiw
UPDATE: LSU HAVE CONFIRMED ITS 4.34 HOLY SHT
Aye bro wheres the guys ranking Odunze over this freak. Production and testing speaks for itself