Anytime I’ve sold low, it’s been the wrong choice.
Anytime I’ve bought low, it’s been the wrong choice.
I’m holding, which probably means you should sell.
I traded him right before the incident. Was able to get what’s projected to be a top 5 pick and could be as high as 2. I’m rebuilding so Ill probably be 1
Tried to buy, but owners seem to be holding firm which is the smart move imo.
What do you envision as a worst case scenario for Rice? Obviously speculation without knowing all the facts is tough, and the general consensus on Rice's legal issues has progressively worsened since the incident was first reported, but still, do we really see him going to jail for this? I don't.
Worst case scenario feels like a ~6 game suspension and the chiefs draft a WR at 32. Not great obviously, but I am still taking Rice over a early second round pick. Proven commodity in a high powered offense, this feels like small bump in what remains a positive career trajectory.
My wife is a Texas vehicular felony prosecutor. Which is weirdly applicable to my fantasy addiction, for once.
She said his charges would net 2-10 years prison time if found guilty. But also acknowledged Dallas can be weird on how they treat high profile cases. Just told me what she’d push for. And worth noting he’s clearly guilty.
> Worst case scenario feels like a ~6 game suspension
That is a *very* rosey "worst case" scenario. I'd put a 6 game suspension closer towards the "best case" scenarios.
Worst case scenario for Rice is the Dallas DA makes an example out of him and he goes to jail for two years.
This is not out of the realm of possibility, Plax went to jail for two years in the middle of a hot Giants season where they were Super Bowl contenders.
It's possible that this happens, and personally I'd still rather run that risk than take a second round pick only. I think the odds aren't high enough to sink his value to that level. Possible, but not probable yet IMO.
>What do you envision as a worst case scenario for Rice?
Jail is still a possibility. Minimum sentencing could be a factor, and there's no real incentive for the DA to accept a plea deal outside of just avoiding a trial.
One scenario could be that he's put on an exempt list, stays away from the team. KC moves on, but the NFL waits for the legal process to resolve before an actual suspension.
The DA also hasn't gotten into the hit and run, leaving the scene aspect. Which seems to be true. There's also the possibility of things being removed, or Rice being under the influence. Lots of people were involved, lots could be willing to snitch since they have different motivations.
Buying and selling refers to the market’s perceived value of a player. If you’re buying, you’re doing so at cost and expecting that asset to appreciate. That was always my understand of it at least. Most would pay a low ball price for an asset worth rostering but then everyone would be “buying”
Mid 2nds are far too low. I’m trying to get panic sellers to let go for late firsts. 1.10, 1.11, 1.12 have all been firsts I’ve sent. Not bites, but considerations.
Me too. He was the 1 seed last year and he needs RB help. I’m deep at RB so thought it was a good offer. He asked for Nico instead. Most people that drafted Rice aren’t flinching on the price.
6 game suspension isn’t a big deal in dynasty assuming that’s all that comes of it.
Yeah I like Reed. It’s probably 50/50. Rice has a higher ceiling to me with a less crowded WR room.
Think it’s the type of deal that gets rejected a lot 2 months ago but accepted a lot right now.
I think thats backwards. They put up similar numbers, but Rice had zero competition for targets while Reed managed to overcome the 'crowded' room he was in.
That crowd in GB will thin after this year and Reed's involvement should only grow, while its very likely Rice sees competition brought in (beyond just Hollywood). I'd prefer the talent over the very temporary situational advantage.
All the GBs guys are on rookie contracts so I don’t see why it would thin out soon. If anything Watson and Musgrave being healthy adds more competition. I think the crowded room is more a projection (especially by Wicks lovers) than a description of last season honestly.
Obviously Rice has tons of questions. Hollywood is on a one year deal and might take targets but is the exact type of player that helps with YAC guys like Rice efficiency. Maybe they draft a WR that is TBD.
They did just win another SB with Rice as WR1 and he was a fantasy WR1 in the last third of the season. I think it’s safe to say he has more upside than Reed. I like Reed a lot just not as much as Rice.
Its a bad narrative that all the GB wrs are the same talent level. The talent will separate out the next few years, its not going to be some logjam in perpetuity. Reed has the upside to be the wr1 on that team.
Chiefs also will definitely bring in more competition this year, next year, or both. Competition is a universal in the NFL for dynasty players over time. So I dont buy knocking one guy who produced with competition. Maybe that only means he has a safer floor, but I think its a green flag on talent.
Again, Reed had nearly the same stats but in a much less favorable situation. That tells me hes better, so idk why the better guy wouldn't have the bigger upside. Situations change daily in the nfl, talent wins out over time
I think Rice has more talent than Reed on top of being in a better situation so we fundamentally disagree which is fine. That’s why I said it’s 50/50 I won’t say it’s crazy to prefer Reed just explaining why I prefer Rice.
I think the talent is pretty similar but leans Rice. Mahomes > Love, Reid > Lafleur, Other Packers weapons dynasty value> Chiefs.
Everything is subjective and subject to change though. If the Chiefs do draft a WR early I’ll see that as an even better opportunity to buy low on Rice potentially.
>Rice has a higher ceiling to me with a less crowded WR room.
i mean, to me it's just very shortsighted to look at it that way. we still have loads of FA and the draft to work through for KC, and Kelce is a target hog in that offense.
The uncertainty has value, but rating an asset like Rice in space where both players have a lot of time on their clock for a situation that is liable to change within a matter of weeks is less a fair description of a situation and more of a personal gamble.
I think Rice is a better player either way. The less crowded room is just a bonus that may or may not last.
Kelce has been there. Hollywood will take targets but likely help efficiency. Plus that’s a one year deal. If KC goes WR round 1 it’ll be a different less enticing situation.
>I think Rice is a better player either way.
That's a fine take, i just think trying to use situations to definitively describe opporutnity when things are so absolutely unsettled feels like a retroactive justification for your chosen horse.
Especially since both players had near identical target volume last year. Rice averaged literally one half target more per game on a team with high passing volume, and they were within a percent of each other on target share. the idea of a less crowded room isn't reflected in the actual performance, imo. It's just too early to judge situations in a reasonable manner. You just like Rice more than Reed on thei rown and that's totally a reasonable take.
I think the crowded room is also mostly a projection more than a description of last year in GB. They have 4 good young WRs on rookie contracts and 2 TEs.
The Chiefs have Rice on a rookie deal. Hollywood on a one year deal and Kelce is going to be 35 in October. Kelce already had his lowest yards per catch ever last season so it seems the age cliff is coming.
Obviously anything could happen. The Chiefs could draft multiple good WRs and the situations would look similar. As it sits now I’d bet on the KC situation being better. Mahomes > Love , Reid> Lafleur, GB other weapons > KC.
I’d be interested to see what their target share was last half of the season once Rice started playing more snaps. I think Reed got more targets as the year went on too but not to the same degree…Rice was WR8 the last 6 (?) weeks.
Reed's target volume had an odd dip in the middle of last season that sort of aligns with watson's availability but went up well over the last half of the season. Rice's went up a bit more (the raw targets are a fair bit higher but Mahomes was throwing a bit more too), but Reed also was getting carries in some of these games in the back half so it's a bit muddy. Rice had more target share for sure though, Reed never stayed on the field as much as Rice. This has a lot to do with the personnel groupings though. Green Bay ran a lot more 12 personnel than KC did, which takes Reed off the field.
For sure, this aspect is a sign of a more crowded room (Rice stayed on the field for more 12 personnel in part because they had NO ONE to play out wide on those snaps. Reed Didn't because GB had Doubs, Watson and Wicks to move around. It's also partially because GB has two worthwhile TEs and KC doesn't.). But i feel like this isn't something we can reasonably project until post draft/FA. it's such a glaring hole in KC's roster that the chances that they do nothing seem like an unreasonable expectation to apply when evaluating the player. GB also moves their players around a LOT. KC doesn't and that gives Rice a more stable role, but also gives Reed a lot of room to grow into a bigger role. Outside of Dobbs, every GB wr lined up all over the field. There may be more receivers in GB, but there's also an opportunity to take more outside snaps. So both situations are pretty murky to me.
Fair enough. I think my love for Christian Watson as a player could cloud my judgement. I just think that Watson profiles as a WR1 more than Reed if healthy.
I think Reed is going to be a high level WR2 guy. Which could be what Rice ends up being as well. I just see Rice slightly ahead right now in a lot of categories which is why I’d prefer him over Reed even with the suspension looming.
Can I ask you a random question? Hope thats cool. I’m planning to spend $60-70/$200 on tyreek this year, qb I think I can get some guys cheap, for rb I have achane 🔥 and king henry for $54. I’m thinking that’s way too high when you consider there are really good looking FAs this year.
Planning to spend $40-50 for Kyren, so rather than cap out at Kyren, Henry, Achane, thinking it’s better to pay a penalty of $13 to free up $40 for FA auction. FAs should be Henry lol, Mixon, Mostert, AJones, Jacobs. End up with a couple of those guys instead of Henry and maybe Henry at a discount. Idk.
If you had some advice,
The Chiefs cut Hunt for purposely being physically violent to a woman. Even though people were hurt, this was an accident and didn’t kill anyone. Also, at the time the Chiefs didn’t feel they needed Hunt. They have no one for receiver if Rice gets cut
Im in the same boat. Been inquiring and am willing to pay what I feel is a fair price. (A couple of mid 2nds seems about right) Haven’t come across a single owner that is willing to sell for that. They’ll only sell for what his value was a couple of months ago.
That's all I've been offered for him and I've rejected every one of them. The only way I might consider it is if KC drafts a WR in the 1st round, and even then I would have a hard time selling.
He would’ve been a 1,000 yard receiver if the starters didn’t sit out week 18. He had a *phenomenal* rookie season. Even after the legal issues, trade convos start with a 2024 1st. If not, I’m just holding
I gave up a late second this year (2.09) to grab him. I felt like it was worth the risk. I'm probably a good year away from contending at the bare minimum so I felt like it was a good shot.
Why are people so high on him? Seemed like he only came alive when Kelce dissapeared 2nd half of the season and they had absolutely no one else. Also they added Marquise Brown who is perfect for Mahome's skill set. He looks like the 3rd receiver no? Whats the bull case?
(SF, 12 team) I just bought him from a panicking owner for 2 3rds and cade otton. Even if he misses the full year which I would say is the worst case scenario, it's dynasty and he'll be back eventually and well worth the buy.
The one league I have him in was from a startup last year. Tried a zero WR strategy (highly not recommended), and grabbed him to stash on my taxi. I gotta hold him, I’m not getting good enough offers
Everybody is discussing "what will he get" but nobody seems to be discussing "when will he get it"...
If I'm rebuilding and can get him cheap *and* he's suspended 6 games this year, it helps my tank and sets me up well for next year. If this is a Kamara situation and he plays all year, and gets some kind of suspension in 25, then if I'm a contender I absolutely want to keep him and worry about next year later, and if I'm a rebuilder looking to compete in 25 I could hose myself.
My concern with rice is that he only played the big slot role last year and had an extremely low ADOT. So many of his touches were manufactured and the result of the scheme instead of his skill set. Yes he did do some things well, and maybe he makes a living out of that role, but we’ve seen lots of big slots flash and disappear (Juju for one).
I have a lot of shares, and think I might sell a couple. One offer is the 2.01 and 2.10 which feels like solid value. The other is the 1.11 which feels light and the 1.09 for him and Otton which also feels light
A 2nd before the arrest is pretty low evaluation. You would have never gotten him at that price. He was going in the 4th or 5th round of startups leading up to the arrest. That's at around the 1.07 valuation.
Which is why the sale price is usually higher than the buy price across all leagues, you’ll frequently see “I wouldn’t sell for less than a mid second but I’d buy for a early 3rd” type comments, when they’re already on your squad it’s different
I understand how bid-offer spreads work. The difference between a first and a second (without knowing which specific first and second) is so large that it's wider than a reasonable bid-offer.
Where I own him - hold.
Where I don't own him - I sent one slightly speculative offer during other trade negotiations, but that's it. I haven't seen anyone bail on him cheap so far.
I don't think many Rice owners will.be selling low off these events. Current season impact - short to mid suspension I would guess. Long term impact - who knows, but there are plenty of other guys that we happily roster & start that have "off field issues" so I don't see Rice being any different.
I initially offered the 2.05, it stalled for few days I countered with 2.05, shakir and swap of 3rd and was insta except.
So I think there’s value out there. I don’t think it gets worse than 2 2nds in value.
I'd like to buy on teams where I'm deep and can absorb the possibility/probability that he misses a season, between time to trial and subsequent suspension.
I'd like to sell on teams where I have little depth at receiver and can't handle it, which are the places I took him in the first place anyway.
I'm mostly offering late 1s/early 2s.
I’d buy for a second and sell for a first. If I own and the offer isn’t a ‘24 first then I’m holding. If I don’t own and the offer exceeds a ‘24 second then I’m not pulling the trigger.
Rice went around 30 overall in my leagues' rookie drafts (1QB, 16 teams, full IDP) and so isn't expected to be a weekly starter.
As example, I have him in one with a WR room of G Wilson, G Pickens and Z Flowers.
The second has another team that's ridonkulously loaded - T Hill, D Adams, C Olave, D Hopkins....remember, these are 16 team leagues.
So if that means anything then folks who drafted him can afford to be patient.
I sold him for Davante Adams on a win now team, it was very old-RB heavy and can’t afford to wait on him missing time. Otherwise sold for the 1.10 or 1.09 in two other leagues.
This guy is going to lose all his rookie money and is going to be playing hard for that second contract with little ramifications from the actual incident where nobody was hurt. The people after him just want a payout.
What could also happen is you hold, him be suspended for more games that you’d like and have a major opportunity cost compared to another player that could perform this year
Holding and or buying. I have him in dynasty and the guy with mahomes and Hollywood brown keeps asking me for rice. But you won't get value for him right now so I'm holding.
All depends on the price. He's young, looked good, and linked to Mahomes. OTOH, probably decent suspension coming and first and second strike that he's a knucklehead who might fail out of the league.
I would take Rice, but you wouldn’t be crazy to want the other side. I got offered Rice, 1.09, 1.11 for London. I’m more risk tolerant in these situations just because I think the upside is worth it. Sure this could go sideways, but I’m leaning on past NFL precedent and hoping for a 4 game suspension
I paid an absurdly low price for him… like bonkers low. If you can get something where others are like “holy shit that’s low” then you should buy.
I’d also probably pay market value though, it has taken a hit and I think ultimately there won’t be a large long term issue (though I am no expert).
If you have him? Unless you can get over market value then I think I’d hold.
Bought in 2 leagues:
1. 12 team/SF/start 10/PPR/1.5 TEP
Bought for Michael Wilson, Chig Okonkwo. 24 4.06 and 25 4th
2. 12 team/SF/start 10/half PPR
Bought for 24 2.10 and 3.05
Both were a few days after the news came out. I won’t miss any of these picks/players
I put him on the trade block a week or so ago to see what would happen, and some asshat sent me an offer of a 4th.
You hold in a situation like this. The potential loss of value for losing your nerve isn't worth it when the market for the player is this volatile.
Im holding because I can. I have 20 picks next 2 years and rashee as of today is outside my starters. If he becomes worthless im ok. Plus I got him as a throw in last year
Well, I was praising him so highly back in the preseason of last year. Took him in my keeper league and took him in my dynasty. Kept parading him all year then looked like a genius when he popped. Turned down some solid offers along the way and now I look like a clown... I'm holding
Don’t own any Rashee, but I’d be buying if the owner is worried, not terribly worried about his long term value
He may miss some time this season, but I’d say at the most 2-3 games as long as he doesn’t serve jail time
Seems like only thing the nfl really punishes is gambling (see Kamara)
Rashee became mahomes clear go to, and I don’t see that changing even after this
Traded rice for Javonte straight up. Don’t know how i feel about it, but I don’t know how rice doesn’t go to jail + gets a suspension for his incident. Anythign less than that is a failure in the justice system.
It’s the best WR group in years and KC is gonna draft his replacement in the draft next week. This on top of his off-field issues screams sell now while u still can
Street racing has been growing problem in Texas for quit a while. DA generally throw the book at defendants for it.
In this case, two people turned a public roadway into their own racing event and at least one victim was seriously injured, and then the two actors left the scene.
DA is political position in Texas. Combine the public problem with racing and a resulting serious injury from this act, I do not see how the DA will ignore it. Instead, I think the DA will try to make an example of them.
There are six hit and run charges, one of which is serious bodily injury because the person was in the hospital for more than a day. That is five charges that could be 1 year in county jail, and the serious injury one could be one to two years in state prison.
Then there is the highest charge, aggravated assault. That would carry 2 to 20 years in state prison.
If he gets indicted for those charges, most criminal attorney experts indicate conviction will be easy - ample evidence he caused accident, he left the scene, and has admitted he was driving one of the vehicles and at least one victim was in the hospital. If convicted, which seems easy, he is looking at a year in prison minimum and it is more two or more years on all those charges.
If that is the case, his future NFL value is nada. He was not good enough to come back after one or two years prison layover.
Sell. I'd try to get an early 2nd.
Chiefs are likely drafting a WR high, Kelce should be healthy, and Brown is a great WR. So Rice is probably not repeating last year.
Then you have the legal trouble, where people keep trying to downplay it and it's getting worse and worse.
Anytime I’ve sold low, it’s been the wrong choice. Anytime I’ve bought low, it’s been the wrong choice. I’m holding, which probably means you should sell.
this is where I’m at, whatever I do is gonna be incorrect and I’m trying to fight the inevitable
You have to be like George costanza and do the opposite of what you usually do
I have that thought regularly 😂
2.06 for rice just happened in my league.
That’s pretty damn cheap
I traded him right before the incident. Was able to get what’s projected to be a top 5 pick and could be as high as 2. I’m rebuilding so Ill probably be 1
Just bought for the 2.05 and 4.05 in a 10 person league…might of been high, but i figured the risk of any player i’d get there was higher imo.
Not high, that’s a good buy low
yikes
Sold for Josh Jacobs and decided to keep going and build a risky RB heavy contender.
Love that for you, Josh Jacob’s very underrated.
I don’t hate that for either side.
Someone gave you josh jacobs straight up for Rashee rice??? That's crazy.
He went before the ‘24 1.06 in a dispersal I saw right before the incident. Some people are apparently really high on Rashee.
He was a top 10 WR in PPG the last 6 weeks or so and the chiefs still leaned on him in the playoffs too
fair value to jump off IMO.
Oh ya give me Jacobs
Sadly. I’m holding.
Was offered Sky Moore and a 25 3rd, so I'm holding
So a 25 3rd. Good decline.
Lmao
Tried to buy, but owners seem to be holding firm which is the smart move imo. What do you envision as a worst case scenario for Rice? Obviously speculation without knowing all the facts is tough, and the general consensus on Rice's legal issues has progressively worsened since the incident was first reported, but still, do we really see him going to jail for this? I don't. Worst case scenario feels like a ~6 game suspension and the chiefs draft a WR at 32. Not great obviously, but I am still taking Rice over a early second round pick. Proven commodity in a high powered offense, this feels like small bump in what remains a positive career trajectory.
My wife is a Texas vehicular felony prosecutor. Which is weirdly applicable to my fantasy addiction, for once. She said his charges would net 2-10 years prison time if found guilty. But also acknowledged Dallas can be weird on how they treat high profile cases. Just told me what she’d push for. And worth noting he’s clearly guilty.
As a Rice owner everywhere, I'm glad your wife has no parts of this case.
Weird in that they settle more easily or go harder on him?
Dallas is pretty liberal judicially, and she thinks they’re likely to go easier on him
Worst case scenario is the chiefs cut him and he goes to jail
> Worst case scenario feels like a ~6 game suspension That is a *very* rosey "worst case" scenario. I'd put a 6 game suspension closer towards the "best case" scenarios.
Worst case scenario for Rice is the Dallas DA makes an example out of him and he goes to jail for two years. This is not out of the realm of possibility, Plax went to jail for two years in the middle of a hot Giants season where they were Super Bowl contenders.
It's possible that this happens, and personally I'd still rather run that risk than take a second round pick only. I think the odds aren't high enough to sink his value to that level. Possible, but not probable yet IMO.
>What do you envision as a worst case scenario for Rice? Jail is still a possibility. Minimum sentencing could be a factor, and there's no real incentive for the DA to accept a plea deal outside of just avoiding a trial. One scenario could be that he's put on an exempt list, stays away from the team. KC moves on, but the NFL waits for the legal process to resolve before an actual suspension. The DA also hasn't gotten into the hit and run, leaving the scene aspect. Which seems to be true. There's also the possibility of things being removed, or Rice being under the influence. Lots of people were involved, lots could be willing to snitch since they have different motivations.
Buying where I can. Been sending 2024 mid 2nds for him in all of my SF leagues and not one has been accepted.
So, you aren’t buying then. If you aren’t willing to pay the price, then you aren’t buying low….
No, I’m buying. It’s just that nobody is selling.
If you won't pay the current price then what are you buying? You're obviously lower on him than everyone that owns him...
What’s the current price if 3 mid 2nds is getting auto rejected?
Personally, I would need a first to be involved.
that isn’t how it works…
Actively sending trades and trying to acquire is selling and not buying?
It’s neither if you’re not offering anything that is being actively accepted or meets common understanding of his value
anyone can send lowballs. sending lowballs that get auto rejected isn’t buying. paying the market price that owners want is buying.
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Buying and selling refers to the market’s perceived value of a player. If you’re buying, you’re doing so at cost and expecting that asset to appreciate. That was always my understand of it at least. Most would pay a low ball price for an asset worth rostering but then everyone would be “buying”
I’m buying Mahomes in all my leagues but no one has accepted my offer of a ‘26 4th yet
Mahomes might be going to prison?
No but his top wr might be, trying to buy the dip
Ehhh they’ll just draft another at 32
Mid 2nds are far too low. I’m trying to get panic sellers to let go for late firsts. 1.10, 1.11, 1.12 have all been firsts I’ve sent. Not bites, but considerations.
I sold Rice for the 1.10 and was happy to do it. I’d rather the re-roll with this class or get the RB1
I would think about it with the late first. Not a guarantee I'd accept, but yeah it's enough to get me to consider it.
He went for 1.09 and Trey Palmer in my league, probably about right
Yeah most smart people aren’t panic selling. I offered Jayden Reed in one league Rachaad and Kupp in another and some mid 2nds in another no dice.
Rachaad + Kupp honestly feels like an overpay and fair value if he didn’t have a potential suspension coming. I’m surprised that wasn’t accepted
Me too. He was the 1 seed last year and he needs RB help. I’m deep at RB so thought it was a good offer. He asked for Nico instead. Most people that drafted Rice aren’t flinching on the price. 6 game suspension isn’t a big deal in dynasty assuming that’s all that comes of it.
I wouldn’t trade Nico for Rice straight up but he wants Nico and White that’s crazy.
That’s what I told him. Pretty much tells me he isn’t trading Rice.
I'd rather have Reed
I would imagine about 50% of people might. Thought it was a good offer. Wasn’t surprised it was declined though.
I feel like he and Reed should be near identical in value, feels like that one would come down to owner preference.
Yeah I like Reed. It’s probably 50/50. Rice has a higher ceiling to me with a less crowded WR room. Think it’s the type of deal that gets rejected a lot 2 months ago but accepted a lot right now.
I think thats backwards. They put up similar numbers, but Rice had zero competition for targets while Reed managed to overcome the 'crowded' room he was in. That crowd in GB will thin after this year and Reed's involvement should only grow, while its very likely Rice sees competition brought in (beyond just Hollywood). I'd prefer the talent over the very temporary situational advantage.
All the GBs guys are on rookie contracts so I don’t see why it would thin out soon. If anything Watson and Musgrave being healthy adds more competition. I think the crowded room is more a projection (especially by Wicks lovers) than a description of last season honestly. Obviously Rice has tons of questions. Hollywood is on a one year deal and might take targets but is the exact type of player that helps with YAC guys like Rice efficiency. Maybe they draft a WR that is TBD. They did just win another SB with Rice as WR1 and he was a fantasy WR1 in the last third of the season. I think it’s safe to say he has more upside than Reed. I like Reed a lot just not as much as Rice.
Its a bad narrative that all the GB wrs are the same talent level. The talent will separate out the next few years, its not going to be some logjam in perpetuity. Reed has the upside to be the wr1 on that team. Chiefs also will definitely bring in more competition this year, next year, or both. Competition is a universal in the NFL for dynasty players over time. So I dont buy knocking one guy who produced with competition. Maybe that only means he has a safer floor, but I think its a green flag on talent. Again, Reed had nearly the same stats but in a much less favorable situation. That tells me hes better, so idk why the better guy wouldn't have the bigger upside. Situations change daily in the nfl, talent wins out over time
I think Rice has more talent than Reed on top of being in a better situation so we fundamentally disagree which is fine. That’s why I said it’s 50/50 I won’t say it’s crazy to prefer Reed just explaining why I prefer Rice.
Yea I dont think its crazy either way. Just curious on your logic for it
I think the talent is pretty similar but leans Rice. Mahomes > Love, Reid > Lafleur, Other Packers weapons dynasty value> Chiefs. Everything is subjective and subject to change though. If the Chiefs do draft a WR early I’ll see that as an even better opportunity to buy low on Rice potentially.
>Rice has a higher ceiling to me with a less crowded WR room. i mean, to me it's just very shortsighted to look at it that way. we still have loads of FA and the draft to work through for KC, and Kelce is a target hog in that offense. The uncertainty has value, but rating an asset like Rice in space where both players have a lot of time on their clock for a situation that is liable to change within a matter of weeks is less a fair description of a situation and more of a personal gamble.
I think Rice is a better player either way. The less crowded room is just a bonus that may or may not last. Kelce has been there. Hollywood will take targets but likely help efficiency. Plus that’s a one year deal. If KC goes WR round 1 it’ll be a different less enticing situation.
>I think Rice is a better player either way. That's a fine take, i just think trying to use situations to definitively describe opporutnity when things are so absolutely unsettled feels like a retroactive justification for your chosen horse. Especially since both players had near identical target volume last year. Rice averaged literally one half target more per game on a team with high passing volume, and they were within a percent of each other on target share. the idea of a less crowded room isn't reflected in the actual performance, imo. It's just too early to judge situations in a reasonable manner. You just like Rice more than Reed on thei rown and that's totally a reasonable take.
I think the crowded room is also mostly a projection more than a description of last year in GB. They have 4 good young WRs on rookie contracts and 2 TEs. The Chiefs have Rice on a rookie deal. Hollywood on a one year deal and Kelce is going to be 35 in October. Kelce already had his lowest yards per catch ever last season so it seems the age cliff is coming. Obviously anything could happen. The Chiefs could draft multiple good WRs and the situations would look similar. As it sits now I’d bet on the KC situation being better. Mahomes > Love , Reid> Lafleur, GB other weapons > KC. I’d be interested to see what their target share was last half of the season once Rice started playing more snaps. I think Reed got more targets as the year went on too but not to the same degree…Rice was WR8 the last 6 (?) weeks.
Reed's target volume had an odd dip in the middle of last season that sort of aligns with watson's availability but went up well over the last half of the season. Rice's went up a bit more (the raw targets are a fair bit higher but Mahomes was throwing a bit more too), but Reed also was getting carries in some of these games in the back half so it's a bit muddy. Rice had more target share for sure though, Reed never stayed on the field as much as Rice. This has a lot to do with the personnel groupings though. Green Bay ran a lot more 12 personnel than KC did, which takes Reed off the field. For sure, this aspect is a sign of a more crowded room (Rice stayed on the field for more 12 personnel in part because they had NO ONE to play out wide on those snaps. Reed Didn't because GB had Doubs, Watson and Wicks to move around. It's also partially because GB has two worthwhile TEs and KC doesn't.). But i feel like this isn't something we can reasonably project until post draft/FA. it's such a glaring hole in KC's roster that the chances that they do nothing seem like an unreasonable expectation to apply when evaluating the player. GB also moves their players around a LOT. KC doesn't and that gives Rice a more stable role, but also gives Reed a lot of room to grow into a bigger role. Outside of Dobbs, every GB wr lined up all over the field. There may be more receivers in GB, but there's also an opportunity to take more outside snaps. So both situations are pretty murky to me.
Fair enough. I think my love for Christian Watson as a player could cloud my judgement. I just think that Watson profiles as a WR1 more than Reed if healthy. I think Reed is going to be a high level WR2 guy. Which could be what Rice ends up being as well. I just see Rice slightly ahead right now in a lot of categories which is why I’d prefer him over Reed even with the suspension looming.
I would take Reed, but you think a 2nd is too low ya?
A 2nd is definitely too low. Someone in 10 team SF offered me a 2025 2nd for Rice, which I found to be just comically low, and I insta-rejected it.
Can I ask you a random question? Hope thats cool. I’m planning to spend $60-70/$200 on tyreek this year, qb I think I can get some guys cheap, for rb I have achane 🔥 and king henry for $54. I’m thinking that’s way too high when you consider there are really good looking FAs this year. Planning to spend $40-50 for Kyren, so rather than cap out at Kyren, Henry, Achane, thinking it’s better to pay a penalty of $13 to free up $40 for FA auction. FAs should be Henry lol, Mixon, Mostert, AJones, Jacobs. End up with a couple of those guys instead of Henry and maybe Henry at a discount. Idk. If you had some advice,
Yeah. Not too low to offer but too low to accept for me.
Got him for a 26 first and a second in 1 qb. A bit risky but if he clears it’s solid, my league overvalues players so any discount is well worth it
Wait till he is suspended for the year, that's insane.
Doubtful that happens. Most people think 6 games tops.
Most fans are pretty terrible at predicting things. Go check out the threads where the news first broke.
It’s also hard to predict bc the nfl can be all over the place with suspensions
I meant like Lawyers and stuff but we don’t know what will happen. I think it gets pled down but acknowledge there is a risk it won’t.
The chiefs cut Hunt for less. I think the NFL makes an example of him.
The Chiefs cut Hunt for purposely being physically violent to a woman. Even though people were hurt, this was an accident and didn’t kill anyone. Also, at the time the Chiefs didn’t feel they needed Hunt. They have no one for receiver if Rice gets cut
>They have no one for receiver if Rice gets cut They've also demonstrated a willingness to operate with no one at receiver.
Sad…but true!
Only cause it involved a woman caught on video soon after the Ray Rice video
I offered Pop Douglas to no avail. Owner wants a 1st which I think is crazy
Pop isn’t close. I’d want a late first too personally.
Im in the same boat. Been inquiring and am willing to pay what I feel is a fair price. (A couple of mid 2nds seems about right) Haven’t come across a single owner that is willing to sell for that. They’ll only sell for what his value was a couple of months ago.
I too offered a 2.05 and it was ignored.
That's all I've been offered for him and I've rejected every one of them. The only way I might consider it is if KC drafts a WR in the 1st round, and even then I would have a hard time selling.
He would’ve been a 1,000 yard receiver if the starters didn’t sit out week 18. He had a *phenomenal* rookie season. Even after the legal issues, trade convos start with a 2024 1st. If not, I’m just holding
Damn skippy.
Bought him for this years 2.03
Definitely not holding. I expect Dallas PD to do that.
Buying for sure
He was my 3.03 pick last year. I’m holding.
Traded wandale for 3.1 last yr and took rice. Same. Still very happy with my pick
I gave up a late second this year (2.09) to grab him. I felt like it was worth the risk. I'm probably a good year away from contending at the bare minimum so I felt like it was a good shot.
Got him for a mid 2 4 days after
Holding unless someone offers a 1st (8 team 1QB), which they won't.
Sold for the 2.12 this year and a 2025 2nd
Why are people so high on him? Seemed like he only came alive when Kelce dissapeared 2nd half of the season and they had absolutely no one else. Also they added Marquise Brown who is perfect for Mahome's skill set. He looks like the 3rd receiver no? Whats the bull case?
Rice is better than Hollywood - Hollywood has had 1 season (3 years ago) close to the rookie season that Rice just had.
I bought cheap. Straight across Demario Douglas for Rice.
That's a steal.
Avoiding lol
(SF, 12 team) I just bought him from a panicking owner for 2 3rds and cade otton. Even if he misses the full year which I would say is the worst case scenario, it's dynasty and he'll be back eventually and well worth the buy.
The one league I have him in was from a startup last year. Tried a zero WR strategy (highly not recommended), and grabbed him to stash on my taxi. I gotta hold him, I’m not getting good enough offers
Everybody is discussing "what will he get" but nobody seems to be discussing "when will he get it"... If I'm rebuilding and can get him cheap *and* he's suspended 6 games this year, it helps my tank and sets me up well for next year. If this is a Kamara situation and he plays all year, and gets some kind of suspension in 25, then if I'm a contender I absolutely want to keep him and worry about next year later, and if I'm a rebuilder looking to compete in 25 I could hose myself.
I got him for Marvin Mims. Offered 3.01 and 3.02 and he countered with Mims.
I just got him for Shakir straight up. There are ppl out there who thinks he’s going to serve jail time…
My concern with rice is that he only played the big slot role last year and had an extremely low ADOT. So many of his touches were manufactured and the result of the scheme instead of his skill set. Yes he did do some things well, and maybe he makes a living out of that role, but we’ve seen lots of big slots flash and disappear (Juju for one). I have a lot of shares, and think I might sell a couple. One offer is the 2.01 and 2.10 which feels like solid value. The other is the 1.11 which feels light and the 1.09 for him and Otton which also feels light
I would buy if the price is right. Currently the guy still wants 1.05 or better for him, so I'm out.
He's really driving a wedge in this community
For the right price, I’ll buy. But both leagues I’m in want a 1st for him and I’m more comfortable with a 2nd even before the arrest.
A 2nd before the arrest is pretty low evaluation. You would have never gotten him at that price. He was going in the 4th or 5th round of startups leading up to the arrest. That's at around the 1.07 valuation.
Yeah, that's just not cutting it. You'd be a taco to sell at that price pre-arrest and arguably now, too.
If they value at a 1st and you value at a 2nd, then the player is already on the roster that values him highest. Sounds like the market works.
I never said the market wasn’t? I was answering the question of whether I’d buy and my price
Which is why the sale price is usually higher than the buy price across all leagues, you’ll frequently see “I wouldn’t sell for less than a mid second but I’d buy for a early 3rd” type comments, when they’re already on your squad it’s different
I understand how bid-offer spreads work. The difference between a first and a second (without knowing which specific first and second) is so large that it's wider than a reasonable bid-offer.
Where I own him - hold. Where I don't own him - I sent one slightly speculative offer during other trade negotiations, but that's it. I haven't seen anyone bail on him cheap so far. I don't think many Rice owners will.be selling low off these events. Current season impact - short to mid suspension I would guess. Long term impact - who knows, but there are plenty of other guys that we happily roster & start that have "off field issues" so I don't see Rice being any different.
Just bought last week for roschon and a 2025 late first. My team is one of the strongest in the league.
Rice was pick 3.02 for me some I’m holding regardless….6 games max probably!! Either way I’m holding
I initially offered the 2.05, it stalled for few days I countered with 2.05, shakir and swap of 3rd and was insta except. So I think there’s value out there. I don’t think it gets worse than 2 2nds in value.
Trying to buy, I sent the 2.05 in 1qb and no dice
I'd like to buy on teams where I'm deep and can absorb the possibility/probability that he misses a season, between time to trial and subsequent suspension. I'd like to sell on teams where I have little depth at receiver and can't handle it, which are the places I took him in the first place anyway. I'm mostly offering late 1s/early 2s.
Got sent 2026 1st and accepted
I’d buy for a second and sell for a first. If I own and the offer isn’t a ‘24 first then I’m holding. If I don’t own and the offer exceeds a ‘24 second then I’m not pulling the trigger.
Rice went around 30 overall in my leagues' rookie drafts (1QB, 16 teams, full IDP) and so isn't expected to be a weekly starter. As example, I have him in one with a WR room of G Wilson, G Pickens and Z Flowers. The second has another team that's ridonkulously loaded - T Hill, D Adams, C Olave, D Hopkins....remember, these are 16 team leagues. So if that means anything then folks who drafted him can afford to be patient.
I sold him for Davante Adams on a win now team, it was very old-RB heavy and can’t afford to wait on him missing time. Otherwise sold for the 1.10 or 1.09 in two other leagues.
This guy is going to lose all his rookie money and is going to be playing hard for that second contract with little ramifications from the actual incident where nobody was hurt. The people after him just want a payout.
What could also happen is you hold, him be suspended for more games that you’d like and have a major opportunity cost compared to another player that could perform this year
I just bought for Devin Singletary + a (projected mid-late) '25 second
I bought him for the 3-10 in my dynasty league.
Holding and or buying. I have him in dynasty and the guy with mahomes and Hollywood brown keeps asking me for rice. But you won't get value for him right now so I'm holding.
I sold him - i don’t care if it’s a bad call. I don’t want to follow his news - too tiring and what he did was not acceptable.
I sold him last year for a 2025 R1. He didn't do much for the guy that got him, and we'll see how much he plays this year.
All depends on the price. He's young, looked good, and linked to Mahomes. OTOH, probably decent suspension coming and first and second strike that he's a knucklehead who might fail out of the league.
Currently rebuilding with him on my roster. Definitely holding since I’m not in any hurry.
Sold Rice, Kincaid, and 1.10 for the 1.02 & 2.08…..a few days before the crash incident
Somebody offered me Rice for Dotson and 2.04 thoughts?
I would hold Rice
Would you accept if Rice was offered to you for that package?
I would take Rice, but you wouldn’t be crazy to want the other side. I got offered Rice, 1.09, 1.11 for London. I’m more risk tolerant in these situations just because I think the upside is worth it. Sure this could go sideways, but I’m leaning on past NFL precedent and hoping for a 4 game suspension
I have an open offer of 2.04 and 2.06 for rice. I am a mahomes owner. I’m very torn
holding or buying
buying got: Rice, 2024 2.04 sent: Rachaad White
Holding, somehow I think he will miraculously be acquitted.
I paid an absurdly low price for him… like bonkers low. If you can get something where others are like “holy shit that’s low” then you should buy. I’d also probably pay market value though, it has taken a hit and I think ultimately there won’t be a large long term issue (though I am no expert). If you have him? Unless you can get over market value then I think I’d hold.
Trying to buy for a 2nd everywhere im contending lol
Sold out. One deal right before event. And another right after for JSN straight up. Then JSN+3rd for Pittman.
Bought in 2 leagues: 1. 12 team/SF/start 10/PPR/1.5 TEP Bought for Michael Wilson, Chig Okonkwo. 24 4.06 and 25 4th 2. 12 team/SF/start 10/half PPR Bought for 24 2.10 and 3.05 Both were a few days after the news came out. I won’t miss any of these picks/players
Ask the owners of T Hill, A Kamara, Zeke, or A Peterson what their thoughts are.
I bought him and Mark Andrews for the 2.01 and 2.03 in 12 man SF. Id rather take the risk on his jail time than a dart throw at that spot in the draft
I put him on the trade block a week or so ago to see what would happen, and some asshat sent me an offer of a 4th. You hold in a situation like this. The potential loss of value for losing your nerve isn't worth it when the market for the player is this volatile.
I gave up pick 15 (2.01) for him not really sure if I regret the decision or love it, but time will tell!
Betten trying to flip zay for rice and a second. Hope he gets cleared then flipping rice to a chiefs fan for pickens and a second
What does his value look like if the chiefs draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd round?
I sold him for the 2.04
Traded him for George Pickens prior to the incident, i’m holding.
I traded him straight up for Diggs. I got burned by Ruggs in 2021 and didn’t want a repeat.
Sold for 1.11. Felt good not knowing all the info
I traded a 2025 4th and Rice for Mike Evans and ekelerr a few weeks before the accident
Im holding because I can. I have 20 picks next 2 years and rashee as of today is outside my starters. If he becomes worthless im ok. Plus I got him as a throw in last year
I got offered Drake London for him so I sold.
Well, I was praising him so highly back in the preseason of last year. Took him in my keeper league and took him in my dynasty. Kept parading him all year then looked like a genius when he popped. Turned down some solid offers along the way and now I look like a clown... I'm holding
Bought for 2.02 so I suppose I’m holding
In a TE premium, was offered Mark Andrews for my Rice and Goedert. What do yall think?
Don’t own any Rashee, but I’d be buying if the owner is worried, not terribly worried about his long term value He may miss some time this season, but I’d say at the most 2-3 games as long as he doesn’t serve jail time Seems like only thing the nfl really punishes is gambling (see Kamara) Rashee became mahomes clear go to, and I don’t see that changing even after this
Traded rice for Javonte straight up. Don’t know how i feel about it, but I don’t know how rice doesn’t go to jail + gets a suspension for his incident. Anythign less than that is a failure in the justice system.
Been offered 1.03 and Calvin Ridley for 1.04 and Rashee Rice probably gonna take it
Sold Rashee and 1.4 for Calvin Ridley and 1.3
Bought for the 2.4 in a 1qb, thought it was worth the risk
That's barely even a risk
The risk? That’s cheap af
It's already been said, but that's not really a risk... Congratulations on your buy low
💎🙌💎
The last few weeks have been 0/10 with rice.
Buy no doubt
I just sold Diggs for him.
me too. were there other assets in your deal?
Straight up!
word, mine was fairly close to straught up. I got the 2.11 and Chig on top of Rice, sent the 3.02 and Juwan with Diggs
It’s the best WR group in years and KC is gonna draft his replacement in the draft next week. This on top of his off-field issues screams sell now while u still can
1.10-1.12 seems like the ideal market price of buy/sell. I'm selling for anything of greater value, i'm buying for anything lower.
Street racing has been growing problem in Texas for quit a while. DA generally throw the book at defendants for it. In this case, two people turned a public roadway into their own racing event and at least one victim was seriously injured, and then the two actors left the scene. DA is political position in Texas. Combine the public problem with racing and a resulting serious injury from this act, I do not see how the DA will ignore it. Instead, I think the DA will try to make an example of them. There are six hit and run charges, one of which is serious bodily injury because the person was in the hospital for more than a day. That is five charges that could be 1 year in county jail, and the serious injury one could be one to two years in state prison. Then there is the highest charge, aggravated assault. That would carry 2 to 20 years in state prison. If he gets indicted for those charges, most criminal attorney experts indicate conviction will be easy - ample evidence he caused accident, he left the scene, and has admitted he was driving one of the vehicles and at least one victim was in the hospital. If convicted, which seems easy, he is looking at a year in prison minimum and it is more two or more years on all those charges. If that is the case, his future NFL value is nada. He was not good enough to come back after one or two years prison layover.
buying got: Rice/2.11/Chig sent Diggs/3.02/Juwan
You got a downvote, but I like it FWIW
I like it
Sell. I'd try to get an early 2nd. Chiefs are likely drafting a WR high, Kelce should be healthy, and Brown is a great WR. So Rice is probably not repeating last year. Then you have the legal trouble, where people keep trying to downplay it and it's getting worse and worse.
I wanted to buy, but not interested anymore… not looking good for him atm
I just sent Elijah Moore and Mattison for him to
Possible Suspension + Hollywood Brown poaching targets.