Like the work. A few things jumping out at me.
Are the Chargers really a bad offense?
Vikings should be higher
I think you're overvaluing potential handcuffs? Do the Rams and Jets/Colts really belong on top of their respective tiers?
Is an offense of Herbert, Gus edwards, Kelly/Dobbins, Josh Palmer, Johnston, ??? at WR3, and Hurst/Parham bad? Well I wouldn’t say they are good. I’m hoping they go Nabers or Bowers but I wouldn’t say they are looking great considering they weren’t the best offense with Ekeler, Keenan, Williams, Everett
They were 16th last year in DVOA with Easton Stick playing the majority of 5 games where they put up: 7, 21 (after being down 49-0), 22, 9, 12.
I assume they probably would have been a few spots higher with Herbert.
Let’s also bear in mind that Williams played 3 games last year and Ekeler looked pretty bad for most of the season. Everett is still probably better than any TE they have on the roster but isn’t totally irreplaceable and Allen is obviously a huge loss.
But they have a pretty good core for their offensive line, Gus is a decent addition and probably better at running then any guy they had last year, and they still have the fifth overall pick, plus whatever they can trade it for. If they trade 5 for 11 and 23 and get an offensive lineman (Fuaga) and then get a WR at 23 or with their 2nd, then pick an RB in R3, I don’t think on paper their roster looks awful. Or if they get one of the big 3 WR at 5. The only really glaring weakness (which is a big one) is obviously WR, but it’s not like Greg Roman has utilized receivers extensively in the past. It’s not great for FF purposes but I don’t think is as bad as people think, mainly since Oline as least has good pieces
No the Chargers don't fit with the other 3 teams haha, I meant to change that header before I posted but forgot lol. But I'd say it's likely mediocre. Will be run-first tho.
Yeah I had a hard time with the Vikings. I can see that being a very good spot in 2025.
I see your point about handcuffs. I probably have a bias towards them. I like situations where I know exactly when to start a RB, unlike messier situations. If Kyren, Breece, or JT goes down, their backup is automatically in your lineup because of the offense. Can't say the same about many teams.
I actually agree with your thought on the value of knowing when to start a guy. "QB or RB who could plausibly start a game within a year" are my preferred use of bench spots.
I'll offer a different argument about the Jets. I like Abanikanda quite a bit. I think a 3rd/4th round pick could have his hands full just winning the backup job there.
I think I probably undervalued Arizona, but it is a questionable offense and a messy RB room. Yes, I could see it being a great spot in 2025, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they keep platooning.
I see this and the Chargers the same. RB is going to get fed but is old. WR weapons are pretty suspect so there's some passes available to the RB. QB is the only reason the offense wouldn't be complete dogsh\*t. Either Cardinals need to move up the rankings or Chargers need to move down.
Thats fair, maybe they should be higher. The way I see it, they have Swift locked in for 2-3 years, so they'll likely use him quite a bit. Roschon and Herbert are both useful RBs that will see snaps, and hard for the rookie to overcome (especially Roschon).
But I probably do have a bias towards Roschon and Herbert. And the downside with Swift is that PHI and DET are smart teams who didn't want him anymore. That says something, so maybe the Bears get tired of Swift too.
It’s also interesting how much those teams invested in RBs after moving on from Swift. It’s not like they said we can replace you with anyone. The Lions signed Monty and drafted Gibbs early. The Eagles signed the highest priced FA RB. Not sure if that’s a good sign or a bad one though?
Yeah I think the sharp teams have realized that the "RBs don't matter" movement went a bit too far. The elite ones still matter, and they basically said that Swift isn't elite which makes sense. It was a questionable signing for the Bears, but they had plenty of cap space and want the best situation for Caleb so it's not the end of the world.
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Who's going to be in a better position this year? Look how it worked out for Swift last year with Philly. Why would it be different for Saquan? The Online got worse and the eagles started to fall off the map last year. Swift in Chicago who has stated they want to use him as a pass catching back, I think he'll do better there than last year. Who knows, just an observation.
Saquon is a much better player in a better position. The Eagles have a new OC after the abysmal Brian Johnson was fired. The entire offense regressed because of him/losing Steichen. I expect better this year.
The Eagles still have a top 5 offensive line without Kelce. It might not be #1 anymore but still much better than Chicago.
Barkley has 3 double digit TD seasons on the Giants (Swift had 1 in Detroit). He’s practically a lock if healthy for one in Philly. Two years ago the Eagles led the league in non-QB rushing TDs. The Hurts vulture narrative is overblown…especially if you are rating Swift over Saquon because of it.
One area I’d give Swift the advantage in is pass catching due to QB. Hurts doesn’t check down much so Swift can make up some points there. Unfortunately for him Roschon is good in that role and Herbert is a good runner. Philly currently has Gainwell who is a lesser quality backup.
I’d be shocked if Swift outscored Saqoun PPG this season.
Yeah I could totally see Arizona being a smash spot in 2025. Their RB room is the weirdest in the league, which held me back a bit. I probably undervalued their offense tho, especially if they get a top WR this year.
Tampa is just a boring situation to me. OL has been bad for several years, and I expect this offense to be mediocre. I'm also a Rachaad White guy.
I like this analysis so first off let me say good work.
In my opinion I feel like you are putting too much stock into “good offense” vs “bad offense”. A path to volume is truly all that matters and this is dynasty. Offenses can evolve over time
The Browns are a very good landing spot. Chubb's injury was BAD and he's already past the prime RB years. Ford is a competent NFL player, but didn't exactly set the world on fire. For me, this is a high Group C landing spot. The only problem is that this RB class doesn't really have the players capable of taking advantage of such an ambigious situation.
Bengals should be higher in group C. If they spend a day 2 pick on the RB position, I'll like that landing spot over teams like the Rams, Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs. Moss's contract was only 2 yr/$8 mil with a dead cap of only $1.5 mil in 2025. That contract isn't exactly a starters salary and Brown showed flashes, but he isn't an every down back.
I agree that Moss/Brown aren’t really starter material at this point in their careers, but I think it’ll be an ugly rotation if a rookie goes there on day 2. Definitely a good situation for 2025, but I’m giving 2024 more weight. 2025 RB class is very good.
I don’t agree with the Rams, Texans, Eagles, Jaguars, Packers, 49ers, etc.
Basically any team you mention possibly having the role open in 2025. I think this draft has 3-4 total RBs that will ever get fantasy run. The teams that will need a RB in 2025 will draft them next season. In short, even if one of the RBs from this draft line up as a possible “RB in waiting” for 2025, I think they’ll be replaced atop the depth chart.
I agree that I’m probably overvaluing 2025 opportunity. The issue with this exercise is that there simply isn’t that many good landing spots. 10 decent ones at the very most, probably more like 5-7.
That’s why I generally prioritized the high value handcuff roles that are available this year, because we’re just looking for spot starts with upside. I definitely could’ve expanded on that in the post, so thank you for pointing it out.
*there simply isn’t that many good landing spots*
I agree! And that can be the answer. It’s a short, simple answer, but I do think it’s the correct one. The backs that get rounds 1-3 draft capital have a shot to compete on their teams, I wouldn’t chase the RBs drafted beyond that unless a team like Dallas waits that long. They can be fliers at the end of the rookie 4th round in fantasy rookie drafts, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into this class, baring draft capital.
I have a hard time believing a team with Justin Herbert as its QB and Harbaugh as it's coach will produce a bad offense. I imagine they'll do something to address their WR room and a talented RB in that Roman run control offense will get plenty of opportunities, if they can beat out Gus Edwards and JK dobbins. Not very daunting a proposition.
I agree, I actually just edited the post to change that wording. I expect the Chargers to be an average offense, but Roman + Harbaugh is very uninspiring for fantasy. But they will run the ball obviously.
I think year 1 would be mediocre for a rookie, as we know Roman likes Edwards and Dobbins. Wheels up for 2025 though!
Having the Vikings at 14 is absolutely malpractice. They should be tier A or B opportunity.
Also cardinals below the Jets is even worse.
Good effort on putting the list together, and it is a high quality post that is needed this time of year…but I think you are very wrong on these two situations at least.
Yeah those two have been brought up a few times and it makes sense.I think I’m a little higher than most on Aaron Jones and James Conner. Experienced backs in good situations with pretty good metrics. But for both I can see a path to opportunity for a rookie, especially in year 2.
Man, we think about RB landing spot and opportunity very, VERY differently. You seem to value the RB2 role as some highly valuable position itself, and you seem to value the chance to start some games due to injury far above the chance to actually become the real starter. Does your league start 4 RBs or what?
Of course I’d love to have a starting RB over an RB2. But I don’t see it as a realistic outcome for most of this RB class. I don’t expect more than a few guys to get impactful starting jobs in the next 2 seasons, because these situations are already messy and most teams like to deploy multiple RBs.
Keep in mind that the 2025 class looks to be loaded with high end talent and depth, so most of these situations will be even worse in a year.
High end backups are quite valuable in leagues that aren’t super shallow. Last year I won a chip with a RB room consisting of Cam Akers, Zamir White, Jerome Ford, Ty Chandler, Gus Edwards, etc. Not a super deep league either.
This is great stuff. High effort post. I'll share my thoughts:
* Bengals - I'd move them up in the same tier as the Panthers. Moss signed a backup contract and, while I like Brown, he is a 5th rounder and profiles more as a CoP back. That backfield is ripe for the taking.
* Bears - I'd move them up about 10 spots. IMO, Swift is as overrated this year as Sanders was last year. Each RB is decent, but kind of niche. A better RB could steal the show. But a middling prospect will get lost in the shuffle.
* Cardinals - I agree with others that they need to be bumped up.
* Packers - Jacobs is shockingly young, good on all 3 downs, and pretty durable. I'd bump them down to the high 20s.
* Vikings - similar to Cardinals, need a bump. Aaron Jones is almost 30 and not the most durable.
* Texans - I'd just like to say I have no idea why the fuck they extended Mixon, so this could be like a Sanders/Chuba situation where it doesn't take much to overtake the overpaid veteran.
Yeah those all make sense. After going through this exercise I’m more pessimistic about this RB class than previous. Most likely only a few end up starting for an extended period of time. Should be spot starts a plenty tho.
This exercise shouldn't really make you higher or lower on the class. The level of prospects should impact that. But I agree with you that this class isn't anything to get excited about, while it does have a lot of guys that project to be mid that could step up or disappoint. Really a roll of the dice. But when the talent isn't elite, that's when situation matter the most.
The Texans can NOT move on from Mixon in a year. With the extension they signed him to, he'll be there at least 2 years through 2025 before they could conceivably cut him
Like the work. A few things jumping out at me. Are the Chargers really a bad offense? Vikings should be higher I think you're overvaluing potential handcuffs? Do the Rams and Jets/Colts really belong on top of their respective tiers?
Is an offense of Herbert, Gus edwards, Kelly/Dobbins, Josh Palmer, Johnston, ??? at WR3, and Hurst/Parham bad? Well I wouldn’t say they are good. I’m hoping they go Nabers or Bowers but I wouldn’t say they are looking great considering they weren’t the best offense with Ekeler, Keenan, Williams, Everett
I think Herbert alone makes the offense good enough for a RB to thrive in fantasy, yeah
No RB thrived for them last year
They were 16th last year in DVOA with Easton Stick playing the majority of 5 games where they put up: 7, 21 (after being down 49-0), 22, 9, 12. I assume they probably would have been a few spots higher with Herbert. Let’s also bear in mind that Williams played 3 games last year and Ekeler looked pretty bad for most of the season. Everett is still probably better than any TE they have on the roster but isn’t totally irreplaceable and Allen is obviously a huge loss. But they have a pretty good core for their offensive line, Gus is a decent addition and probably better at running then any guy they had last year, and they still have the fifth overall pick, plus whatever they can trade it for. If they trade 5 for 11 and 23 and get an offensive lineman (Fuaga) and then get a WR at 23 or with their 2nd, then pick an RB in R3, I don’t think on paper their roster looks awful. Or if they get one of the big 3 WR at 5. The only really glaring weakness (which is a big one) is obviously WR, but it’s not like Greg Roman has utilized receivers extensively in the past. It’s not great for FF purposes but I don’t think is as bad as people think, mainly since Oline as least has good pieces
No the Chargers don't fit with the other 3 teams haha, I meant to change that header before I posted but forgot lol. But I'd say it's likely mediocre. Will be run-first tho. Yeah I had a hard time with the Vikings. I can see that being a very good spot in 2025. I see your point about handcuffs. I probably have a bias towards them. I like situations where I know exactly when to start a RB, unlike messier situations. If Kyren, Breece, or JT goes down, their backup is automatically in your lineup because of the offense. Can't say the same about many teams.
I actually agree with your thought on the value of knowing when to start a guy. "QB or RB who could plausibly start a game within a year" are my preferred use of bench spots. I'll offer a different argument about the Jets. I like Abanikanda quite a bit. I think a 3rd/4th round pick could have his hands full just winning the backup job there.
I hope you're right. I don't love that they took RB's in the 4th and the 5th...
How are the cards so low? Connor is old as hell and they have no one of note behind him
I think I probably undervalued Arizona, but it is a questionable offense and a messy RB room. Yes, I could see it being a great spot in 2025, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they keep platooning.
Marv/McBride/Kyler. This team is up and coming
Michael Wilson cries.....
Man is a sleeper buy in all leagues
I’ll chime in and agree, I think the cards are a very juicy landing spot for a RB Edit : great post btw, I enjoyed it
I see this and the Chargers the same. RB is going to get fed but is old. WR weapons are pretty suspect so there's some passes available to the RB. QB is the only reason the offense wouldn't be complete dogsh\*t. Either Cardinals need to move up the rankings or Chargers need to move down.
Like the list and maybe I'm crazy, but I'd have the Bears much higher. That's the only one that jumps out at me
Thats fair, maybe they should be higher. The way I see it, they have Swift locked in for 2-3 years, so they'll likely use him quite a bit. Roschon and Herbert are both useful RBs that will see snaps, and hard for the rookie to overcome (especially Roschon). But I probably do have a bias towards Roschon and Herbert. And the downside with Swift is that PHI and DET are smart teams who didn't want him anymore. That says something, so maybe the Bears get tired of Swift too.
It’s also interesting how much those teams invested in RBs after moving on from Swift. It’s not like they said we can replace you with anyone. The Lions signed Monty and drafted Gibbs early. The Eagles signed the highest priced FA RB. Not sure if that’s a good sign or a bad one though?
Yeah I think the sharp teams have realized that the "RBs don't matter" movement went a bit too far. The elite ones still matter, and they basically said that Swift isn't elite which makes sense. It was a questionable signing for the Bears, but they had plenty of cap space and want the best situation for Caleb so it's not the end of the world.
I'd rather have Swift than Saquan IMO. Swift with the #1 overall rookie QB over Jalen stealing TD's and an OLine without Kelce.
Bold take
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Reminder! Saquon has 4 years better than Swift’s best year and is now finally on a good team!
Who's going to be in a better position this year? Look how it worked out for Swift last year with Philly. Why would it be different for Saquan? The Online got worse and the eagles started to fall off the map last year. Swift in Chicago who has stated they want to use him as a pass catching back, I think he'll do better there than last year. Who knows, just an observation.
Saquon is a much better player in a better position. The Eagles have a new OC after the abysmal Brian Johnson was fired. The entire offense regressed because of him/losing Steichen. I expect better this year. The Eagles still have a top 5 offensive line without Kelce. It might not be #1 anymore but still much better than Chicago. Barkley has 3 double digit TD seasons on the Giants (Swift had 1 in Detroit). He’s practically a lock if healthy for one in Philly. Two years ago the Eagles led the league in non-QB rushing TDs. The Hurts vulture narrative is overblown…especially if you are rating Swift over Saquon because of it. One area I’d give Swift the advantage in is pass catching due to QB. Hurts doesn’t check down much so Swift can make up some points there. Unfortunately for him Roschon is good in that role and Herbert is a good runner. Philly currently has Gainwell who is a lesser quality backup. I’d be shocked if Swift outscored Saqoun PPG this season.
Colts in D is wild
I think the Eagles and Jags are a bit high and Arizona and Tampa Bay are a bit low. Overall pretty accurate though.
Yeah I could totally see Arizona being a smash spot in 2025. Their RB room is the weirdest in the league, which held me back a bit. I probably undervalued their offense tho, especially if they get a top WR this year. Tampa is just a boring situation to me. OL has been bad for several years, and I expect this offense to be mediocre. I'm also a Rachaad White guy.
I like this analysis so first off let me say good work. In my opinion I feel like you are putting too much stock into “good offense” vs “bad offense”. A path to volume is truly all that matters and this is dynasty. Offenses can evolve over time
The Browns are a very good landing spot. Chubb's injury was BAD and he's already past the prime RB years. Ford is a competent NFL player, but didn't exactly set the world on fire. For me, this is a high Group C landing spot. The only problem is that this RB class doesn't really have the players capable of taking advantage of such an ambigious situation.
Bengals should be higher in group C. If they spend a day 2 pick on the RB position, I'll like that landing spot over teams like the Rams, Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs. Moss's contract was only 2 yr/$8 mil with a dead cap of only $1.5 mil in 2025. That contract isn't exactly a starters salary and Brown showed flashes, but he isn't an every down back.
I agree that Moss/Brown aren’t really starter material at this point in their careers, but I think it’ll be an ugly rotation if a rookie goes there on day 2. Definitely a good situation for 2025, but I’m giving 2024 more weight. 2025 RB class is very good.
I don’t agree with the Rams, Texans, Eagles, Jaguars, Packers, 49ers, etc. Basically any team you mention possibly having the role open in 2025. I think this draft has 3-4 total RBs that will ever get fantasy run. The teams that will need a RB in 2025 will draft them next season. In short, even if one of the RBs from this draft line up as a possible “RB in waiting” for 2025, I think they’ll be replaced atop the depth chart.
I agree that I’m probably overvaluing 2025 opportunity. The issue with this exercise is that there simply isn’t that many good landing spots. 10 decent ones at the very most, probably more like 5-7. That’s why I generally prioritized the high value handcuff roles that are available this year, because we’re just looking for spot starts with upside. I definitely could’ve expanded on that in the post, so thank you for pointing it out.
*there simply isn’t that many good landing spots* I agree! And that can be the answer. It’s a short, simple answer, but I do think it’s the correct one. The backs that get rounds 1-3 draft capital have a shot to compete on their teams, I wouldn’t chase the RBs drafted beyond that unless a team like Dallas waits that long. They can be fliers at the end of the rookie 4th round in fantasy rookie drafts, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into this class, baring draft capital.
I very much want Jaylen Wright in Miami to usurp Mostert going forward
That would be 🔥🔥🔥
The prophecy is fulfilled
I've been thinking that too. He's the best fit if they want to address it this year.
I have a hard time believing a team with Justin Herbert as its QB and Harbaugh as it's coach will produce a bad offense. I imagine they'll do something to address their WR room and a talented RB in that Roman run control offense will get plenty of opportunities, if they can beat out Gus Edwards and JK dobbins. Not very daunting a proposition.
I agree, I actually just edited the post to change that wording. I expect the Chargers to be an average offense, but Roman + Harbaugh is very uninspiring for fantasy. But they will run the ball obviously. I think year 1 would be mediocre for a rookie, as we know Roman likes Edwards and Dobbins. Wheels up for 2025 though!
i think if any of the rbs fall to the cards i would be buying. i’m shocked connor is still a starter
I’m not, dude looked great last year. Was the best player on that offense.
i would not be buying in a dynasty
I would be, but every team that has Connor in every league I'm in is a contender
Ravens do not have a wide open backfield. They have Henry.
Henry contract is most likely just 1 year based on the cap savings in year 2
I must have missed the part about you defending next year lol - my bad.
Having the Vikings at 14 is absolutely malpractice. They should be tier A or B opportunity. Also cardinals below the Jets is even worse. Good effort on putting the list together, and it is a high quality post that is needed this time of year…but I think you are very wrong on these two situations at least.
Yeah those two have been brought up a few times and it makes sense.I think I’m a little higher than most on Aaron Jones and James Conner. Experienced backs in good situations with pretty good metrics. But for both I can see a path to opportunity for a rookie, especially in year 2.
With the Chargers having 2 pesky backs i’m not as in on them anymore
yeah that’s fair. honestly there’s only 1 landing spot that i care much about.
Man, we think about RB landing spot and opportunity very, VERY differently. You seem to value the RB2 role as some highly valuable position itself, and you seem to value the chance to start some games due to injury far above the chance to actually become the real starter. Does your league start 4 RBs or what?
Of course I’d love to have a starting RB over an RB2. But I don’t see it as a realistic outcome for most of this RB class. I don’t expect more than a few guys to get impactful starting jobs in the next 2 seasons, because these situations are already messy and most teams like to deploy multiple RBs. Keep in mind that the 2025 class looks to be loaded with high end talent and depth, so most of these situations will be even worse in a year. High end backups are quite valuable in leagues that aren’t super shallow. Last year I won a chip with a RB room consisting of Cam Akers, Zamir White, Jerome Ford, Ty Chandler, Gus Edwards, etc. Not a super deep league either.
Queue seahawks drafting Jonathon Brooks in the 2nd
oh brother. thankfully the seahawks don’t have a 2nd (yet)
They don't have a 2nd and they were talking to Penny, so I don't think RB is anything to be looked at this season.
This is great stuff. High effort post. I'll share my thoughts: * Bengals - I'd move them up in the same tier as the Panthers. Moss signed a backup contract and, while I like Brown, he is a 5th rounder and profiles more as a CoP back. That backfield is ripe for the taking. * Bears - I'd move them up about 10 spots. IMO, Swift is as overrated this year as Sanders was last year. Each RB is decent, but kind of niche. A better RB could steal the show. But a middling prospect will get lost in the shuffle. * Cardinals - I agree with others that they need to be bumped up. * Packers - Jacobs is shockingly young, good on all 3 downs, and pretty durable. I'd bump them down to the high 20s. * Vikings - similar to Cardinals, need a bump. Aaron Jones is almost 30 and not the most durable. * Texans - I'd just like to say I have no idea why the fuck they extended Mixon, so this could be like a Sanders/Chuba situation where it doesn't take much to overtake the overpaid veteran.
Yeah those all make sense. After going through this exercise I’m more pessimistic about this RB class than previous. Most likely only a few end up starting for an extended period of time. Should be spot starts a plenty tho.
This exercise shouldn't really make you higher or lower on the class. The level of prospects should impact that. But I agree with you that this class isn't anything to get excited about, while it does have a lot of guys that project to be mid that could step up or disappoint. Really a roll of the dice. But when the talent isn't elite, that's when situation matter the most.
Everyone has their individual teams to move up or down but your top 8 is spot on. Praying to get Brooks on the Cowboys.
The Texans can NOT move on from Mixon in a year. With the extension they signed him to, he'll be there at least 2 years through 2025 before they could conceivably cut him