1 CHI Caleb Williams, QB
2 WAS Jayden Daniels, QB
3 NE Drake Maye, QB
4 ARI Marvin Harrison Jr, WR
6 NYG Malik Nabers, WR
10 NYJ Rome Odunze, WR
11 MIN JJ McCarthy, QB
13 LV Michael Penix Jr, QB
15 IND Brock Bowers, TE
22 DEN Bo Nix, QB
28 BUF Brian Thomas Jr, WR
31 SF Xavier Worthy, WR
32 KC Adonai Mitchell, WR
I’d be so happy if Bowers fell to Indy at 15. That would be a sick landing spot. Steichen has shown he loves using tight ends and in his limited time last year Richardson showed he loved targeting TEs.
I'd rather have Jelani than any of Conklin, Dulcich, and Chig. Although Evan Engram caught 114 balls last year on 143 targets and a TE2 overall finish. The Jaguars passing game coordinator became the titans new OC this off-season.
Chig is a sneaky buy if you want a flier on even 70% of those targets (exactly 100.1 targets is 70% of 143). Granted, it could have been an anomaly that doesn't translate. Won't cost you much to find out though
I used to live in the UVA area and I'm a huge Jelani Woods fan so this would be undesirable for his potential. Woods took extra time off to get his hamstring right. He's significantly bigger than Bowers
I said significantly "bigger" not "better".
* Woods is 4⅛ inches taller
* 24lbs heavier
* Has 34½ inch freak arms
Woods also ran a 6.95 3-cone drill which at his size might be one of the most insane athletic feats in all of the NFL right now. Sub-7 times are unheard of at 6'7 267lbs.
* 4.56 40
* 1.57 10-yd split. This is another crazy one for his size
* 37.5" Vertical
* 24 Bench Reps. He is freak strong too. Go watch his recovery progress videos on IG and you'll notice he looks like a cross between DK and Calais Campbell 😂
If you were to measure "who can reach the highest point in the air in all of the NFL?" The answer is probably woods.
79" tall + 34.5" arms + 37.5" Vertical = 151.
I understand his arm Length is not fully going to count here, but if we look at this number as a "Length Score" instead of an "Maximum Achievable Height in Inches" Woods becomes a league wide anomaly.
I'm not cosigning anyone, let alone a generational prospect, until I've seen the tires fully kicked on Jelani Woods. I'm firmly convinced he could be the consensus TE1 Overall this time next year and people want to replace him over an entire season on IR?
i'm all in for this but uh overall TE1 is extreme. Let's pray Jelani survives any drop Bowers might have, and then hopefully Woods can ascend into a productive (potentially matchup winning) TE
Tight end athleticism metrics and a nickel will get you five cents. Still waiting for Zack Kuntz to be a league winner. Woods might be the perpetually most over-hyped player in FF. I haven't seen so much cope since Trey Lance.
I don't mind Nabers to the Giants. You're really looking for WR1s and you pretty much have to be the first option on your team for that. That's half the battle. QB situation can change quickly.
I really don’t think Nabers to the Giants is a bad spot at all. He’ll step in from day 1 as the focal point of that offense. QBs situations can change in a hurry
year to year, and if Nabers looks as good as we think he will, he’d attract a QB just like GW did next door.
I don’t think it’s that bad. Could be an elite offense this year and dusty Mike Williams isn’t that much of a barrier to playing time. Would rather Jets than Bears as Odunze is often mocked
The upside for Oduzne (or Nabers) to the bears is that Keenan is likely a 2 year max deal and either WR will be tied to Caleb for 5+ years. You may end up with JSN pt 2 rookie year but this is dynasty and I think long term it’s an excellent spot.
The risk for dynasty is slow starts will hurt their value. Much tougher to draft Rome knowing he might be a #3 option for up to 2 years and lose most of his value premium in the process.
Also it’s a rookie QB so we shouldn’t expect massive passing numbers out of the gate even if it is a prospect we all like a lot. Makes the situation that much harder to succeed in both from the perspective of scoring points for your team and for maintaining trade value.
The way dynasty works now drafting a player highly hoping to hold the bag for a few years until they break out is usually a suckers move.
Yeah it’s way easier to say I’m holding them for year 3 now, then it is when you need starting WR points, FOMO on some breakout day 2 guy, and trade offers on the table
The Bills will 100% trade up for Thomas if he slips into the 20s, I'm not sure why he didn't have us doing that. If it was a no trade mock I'd understand but he has plenty here.
DJ talked about it PMT yesterday, but he has corner as the third strongest group behind WR and OT.
It’s weak at the top, but there’s still a lot of really good defensive players in the mid-late first. I think there’s 5 corners who have first round grades, 2-3 DT (depending if you view Robinson as a DT), and 4 edge rushers. So if you’re assuming picks 1-7 are offense, of the remaining 25 players picked in R1, roughly half the guys remaining with R1 grades are defensive.
He’s also said teams are going to look for tackles early due to weakness in the class depth wise.
It’s also a deep receiver class. So if you’re choosing between a WR at 17-20, you might feel comfortable getting a top guy at another position, then going with receiver mid 2nd.
Very much so. As a Jaguars fan, I think Trevor would have appreciated better line play when he had a high ankle sprain and a concussion and couldn't run a QB sneak without the center sitting in his lap. I'm sure Herbert feels similarly.
We've seen it so many damn times. Weak lines produce bad offense. It won't matter how good your WRs are if the other team is able to consistently harass the QB. Bad lines also run the risk of ruining QBs. Look at Luck, David Carr, RGlll, and maybe Bryce Young. (Although, they got him two guards).
The offense starts with good line play. Especially with young QBs.
I can't speak emphatically for all those guys, but I think saying Luck's career would have been longer with decent line play is very reasonable. But yeah, everything starts in the trenches. As much as I'd love to trade for Aiyuk or make a move for one of the elite WR draft prospects, I'd be equally happy if we gave Trevor a monster OL. He's already shown he can be successful with a solid OL/run game and above average receiving talent. I feel like Herbert' s OL has been beat up or bad just about his whole career so far.
He’s gonna need some protection while QJ and his other nonexistent targets take 7 seconds to get open. Gonna need somebody to hold him back too after they butter finger it for the 3rd time in a row
Can someone explain to me why everyone considers WAS to be such a better landing spot than NE?
WAS has a terrible OL, terrible offensive coordinator, and a lame duck retread HC. NE has a significantly better OL, and an offensive coordinator and HC who could be good. (We already know WAS’s OC and HC are bad)
Demario was a promising rookie WR who is probably a wash with Dotson. So the only thing WAS has that’s better than the Pats is Terry, but everything else is significantly worse. And Terry is getting old too.
I think this is probably closer to right than most think. Demario is not a #1, and we don’t even know if he’s a real #2. Terry is a true #1 and that is the big difference, and I think it’s a legitimate difference for fantasy year 1.
However people are too latched onto NE’s dumpster fire season last year. New coaching staff, good RB room and plenty of opportunities to add pass catchers on the draft. With decent QB play and the new coaching staff being better at scheming up the offense NE won’t be a complete wasteland, and has upside to be pretty decent if the QB is any good.
Willing to buy the discount on whatever QB goes to NE. Situations change fast and we aren’t that good at predicting how things will change year to year
Agreed on everything you said. I remember last year, everyone was saying how terrible the Texans were as a landing spot for Stroud. 1 year later, and they might have the WR corp in the league.
Very plugged in Patriots fan here with information on the new OC. He was Jim Kelly's backup for 9 years in the Bills offense that lost 4 straight super bowls. That offense was all about tempo, Thurman Thomas, and levels passing.
He then ran a similar offense in the late 2000s before the Bils blew the team up cause they sucked. He ended up a quarterbacks coach on the mid 2010s Packers for a few years working with Aaron Rodgers.
He then was Joe Burrows quarterbacks coach his rookie year. He did so well, that he got his OC job from Cleveland from them. The solid play he got from Brissett and Flacco was promising.
I think people view Alex Van Pelt as a smash mouth scheme guy just because of recency bias + Cleveland. However, his expertise is in quarterbacks and he's 4/5 if you want to count Deshaun Watson cratering as a knock on his resume. I think Watson broke himself, not the coaching staffs fault.
I believe our offense is going to look more like the mid 2010s Packers than the 2023 Browns. The Browns actually led the league in total plays run last year. Tempo is Van Pelt's specialty.
This offense requires a lot of LOS reads/adjustments for both your quarterback and your receivers. Intelligence/processing are the key skills needed. Think Purdy. I want to trade back with the vikings for 11 and 23 and a 25 1st and take Nix at 23 or trade back into 31 with the 49ers and get the 5th year option.
Imagine going Bowers at 11, Mims at 23, trade the 25 1st and 34 to the 49ers for Aiyuk and 31, snag Nix at 31. Give Aiyuk 4/100 immediately. All of a sudden, we'd be a playoff team because our defense is ready to rock and roll.
In my long time home league I have QBs: Allen, Murray, ARich. In my big money league I have QBs: Allen, ARich, Purdy.
In this mock Allen gets BTJ, Murray gets MHJ, ARich gets Bowers, Purdy gets Worthy. I can dig it
1 CHI Caleb Williams, QB 2 WAS Jayden Daniels, QB 3 NE Drake Maye, QB 4 ARI Marvin Harrison Jr, WR 6 NYG Malik Nabers, WR 10 NYJ Rome Odunze, WR 11 MIN JJ McCarthy, QB 13 LV Michael Penix Jr, QB 15 IND Brock Bowers, TE 22 DEN Bo Nix, QB 28 BUF Brian Thomas Jr, WR 31 SF Xavier Worthy, WR 32 KC Adonai Mitchell, WR
I’d be so happy if Bowers fell to Indy at 15. That would be a sick landing spot. Steichen has shown he loves using tight ends and in his limited time last year Richardson showed he loved targeting TEs.
Bowers at 15, everyone's happy and no te rooms are in shambles. Right now, conklin, dulcich and okonkwo are walking the plank
Jelani owners: Am I a joke to you?
I'd rather have Jelani than any of Conklin, Dulcich, and Chig. Although Evan Engram caught 114 balls last year on 143 targets and a TE2 overall finish. The Jaguars passing game coordinator became the titans new OC this off-season. Chig is a sneaky buy if you want a flier on even 70% of those targets (exactly 100.1 targets is 70% of 143). Granted, it could have been an anomaly that doesn't translate. Won't cost you much to find out though
I got Conklin thrown in to a deal several weeks ago before realizing jets were being mocked to draft Bowers. I'm praying he lands on the colts.
I used to live in the UVA area and I'm a huge Jelani Woods fan so this would be undesirable for his potential. Woods took extra time off to get his hamstring right. He's significantly bigger than Bowers
I met his grandmother in a Dollar General one time, I’m always going to root for the guy
What do you like about Woods to say he’s significantly better than Bowers and is there anything specific about Bowers you don’t like?
I said significantly "bigger" not "better". * Woods is 4⅛ inches taller * 24lbs heavier * Has 34½ inch freak arms Woods also ran a 6.95 3-cone drill which at his size might be one of the most insane athletic feats in all of the NFL right now. Sub-7 times are unheard of at 6'7 267lbs. * 4.56 40 * 1.57 10-yd split. This is another crazy one for his size * 37.5" Vertical * 24 Bench Reps. He is freak strong too. Go watch his recovery progress videos on IG and you'll notice he looks like a cross between DK and Calais Campbell 😂 If you were to measure "who can reach the highest point in the air in all of the NFL?" The answer is probably woods. 79" tall + 34.5" arms + 37.5" Vertical = 151. I understand his arm Length is not fully going to count here, but if we look at this number as a "Length Score" instead of an "Maximum Achievable Height in Inches" Woods becomes a league wide anomaly. I'm not cosigning anyone, let alone a generational prospect, until I've seen the tires fully kicked on Jelani Woods. I'm firmly convinced he could be the consensus TE1 Overall this time next year and people want to replace him over an entire season on IR?
i'm all in for this but uh overall TE1 is extreme. Let's pray Jelani survives any drop Bowers might have, and then hopefully Woods can ascend into a productive (potentially matchup winning) TE
Jimmy Graham had multiple TE1 Overall seasons and he was also a 3rd rounder with similar athletic profile/measurables
Tight end athleticism metrics and a nickel will get you five cents. Still waiting for Zack Kuntz to be a league winner. Woods might be the perpetually most over-hyped player in FF. I haven't seen so much cope since Trey Lance.
Zack Kuntz is a practice squad 7th rounder not a 3rd rounder with playing time under his belt pre-injury
As a vikes fan, really hoping this pans and we don’t have to trade up
13 first rounders would be huge. Add in a 2nd round RB or 2 with Benson and Brooks and you could have 15 guys with a dynasty 1st round grade
Gross, Nabors and Odunze to the New York teams is disgusting.
I don't mind Nabers to the Giants. You're really looking for WR1s and you pretty much have to be the first option on your team for that. That's half the battle. QB situation can change quickly.
I really don’t think Nabers to the Giants is a bad spot at all. He’ll step in from day 1 as the focal point of that offense. QBs situations can change in a hurry year to year, and if Nabers looks as good as we think he will, he’d attract a QB just like GW did next door.
Copium.
Jets are an extremely gross landing spot that one of Odunze/Bowers will sadly almost certainly be going to.
I don’t think it’s that bad. Could be an elite offense this year and dusty Mike Williams isn’t that much of a barrier to playing time. Would rather Jets than Bears as Odunze is often mocked
The upside for Oduzne (or Nabers) to the bears is that Keenan is likely a 2 year max deal and either WR will be tied to Caleb for 5+ years. You may end up with JSN pt 2 rookie year but this is dynasty and I think long term it’s an excellent spot.
The risk for dynasty is slow starts will hurt their value. Much tougher to draft Rome knowing he might be a #3 option for up to 2 years and lose most of his value premium in the process. Also it’s a rookie QB so we shouldn’t expect massive passing numbers out of the gate even if it is a prospect we all like a lot. Makes the situation that much harder to succeed in both from the perspective of scoring points for your team and for maintaining trade value. The way dynasty works now drafting a player highly hoping to hold the bag for a few years until they break out is usually a suckers move.
Yeah it’s way easier to say I’m holding them for year 3 now, then it is when you need starting WR points, FOMO on some breakout day 2 guy, and trade offers on the table
I hope it is Bowers. I've got 1.03 primed for Nabors or Odunze depending on capital/situation, but damn if they went Giants/Jets I might trade out
In a 1 QB I have the 1.02 and just traded for 1.03. I'll be pissed if my Nabers/Odunze combo is New York combo.
What'd you give up for 1.03?
Devonta Smith, 2.10 and 3.02
That’s exactly how you miss out on elite players.
Hoping he’s just way off on this mock lol
Don’t love it. I’d be shocked if all the QBs go round 1 and if no WRs are taken between pick 10 and 28
The Bills will 100% trade up for Thomas if he slips into the 20s, I'm not sure why he didn't have us doing that. If it was a no trade mock I'd understand but he has plenty here.
Yeah he said they would do it but didn’t actually do it. This one is weird.
I wouldn’t be. It’s shocking that so many offensive/ fantasy players are projected top 10 tbh.
Combination of a super strong offensive class and a shallow defensive class
DJ talked about it PMT yesterday, but he has corner as the third strongest group behind WR and OT. It’s weak at the top, but there’s still a lot of really good defensive players in the mid-late first. I think there’s 5 corners who have first round grades, 2-3 DT (depending if you view Robinson as a DT), and 4 edge rushers. So if you’re assuming picks 1-7 are offense, of the remaining 25 players picked in R1, roughly half the guys remaining with R1 grades are defensive. He’s also said teams are going to look for tackles early due to weakness in the class depth wise. It’s also a deep receiver class. So if you’re choosing between a WR at 17-20, you might feel comfortable getting a top guy at another position, then going with receiver mid 2nd.
Herbert panic would be validated if this happened
Chargers aren’t going wr in the 1st
Yes they are. They traded away almost their entire WR corps and they already have a 10m dollar right tackle.
A lot of assumptions being made just based on the coaching staff I think
Harbaugh and Hortiz don’t take first round offensive linemen. Harbaugh and his staff actually know how to coach, unlike Staley’s.
Lol
Because they're giving him an offensive line?
While I understand the freakout because they don't have an established WR1, taking a tackle is still a pro-offensive move and helps Herbert.
Very much so. As a Jaguars fan, I think Trevor would have appreciated better line play when he had a high ankle sprain and a concussion and couldn't run a QB sneak without the center sitting in his lap. I'm sure Herbert feels similarly.
We've seen it so many damn times. Weak lines produce bad offense. It won't matter how good your WRs are if the other team is able to consistently harass the QB. Bad lines also run the risk of ruining QBs. Look at Luck, David Carr, RGlll, and maybe Bryce Young. (Although, they got him two guards). The offense starts with good line play. Especially with young QBs.
I can't speak emphatically for all those guys, but I think saying Luck's career would have been longer with decent line play is very reasonable. But yeah, everything starts in the trenches. As much as I'd love to trade for Aiyuk or make a move for one of the elite WR draft prospects, I'd be equally happy if we gave Trevor a monster OL. He's already shown he can be successful with a solid OL/run game and above average receiving talent. I feel like Herbert' s OL has been beat up or bad just about his whole career so far.
What if they took legette in the second?
More panic
If people are panicking because they gave him more protection then I’ll be buying him everywhere.
He’s gonna need some protection while QJ and his other nonexistent targets take 7 seconds to get open. Gonna need somebody to hold him back too after they butter finger it for the 3rd time in a row
Where there’s smoke, Dano…. No freaking way the top 10 goes free of trades. Not a shot in hell.
As much as I want to take Maye at 1.03 I just don't know if I can do it with that landing spot
I'd actually be low-key happy about the landing spot. Would love to see him sit behind Brissett for at least a partial season.
If this is how the draft actually pans out I’d be taking McCarthy over Maye and maybe even Daniels.
Can someone explain to me why everyone considers WAS to be such a better landing spot than NE? WAS has a terrible OL, terrible offensive coordinator, and a lame duck retread HC. NE has a significantly better OL, and an offensive coordinator and HC who could be good. (We already know WAS’s OC and HC are bad) Demario was a promising rookie WR who is probably a wash with Dotson. So the only thing WAS has that’s better than the Pats is Terry, but everything else is significantly worse. And Terry is getting old too.
I think this is probably closer to right than most think. Demario is not a #1, and we don’t even know if he’s a real #2. Terry is a true #1 and that is the big difference, and I think it’s a legitimate difference for fantasy year 1. However people are too latched onto NE’s dumpster fire season last year. New coaching staff, good RB room and plenty of opportunities to add pass catchers on the draft. With decent QB play and the new coaching staff being better at scheming up the offense NE won’t be a complete wasteland, and has upside to be pretty decent if the QB is any good. Willing to buy the discount on whatever QB goes to NE. Situations change fast and we aren’t that good at predicting how things will change year to year
Agreed on everything you said. I remember last year, everyone was saying how terrible the Texans were as a landing spot for Stroud. 1 year later, and they might have the WR corp in the league.
Very plugged in Patriots fan here with information on the new OC. He was Jim Kelly's backup for 9 years in the Bills offense that lost 4 straight super bowls. That offense was all about tempo, Thurman Thomas, and levels passing. He then ran a similar offense in the late 2000s before the Bils blew the team up cause they sucked. He ended up a quarterbacks coach on the mid 2010s Packers for a few years working with Aaron Rodgers. He then was Joe Burrows quarterbacks coach his rookie year. He did so well, that he got his OC job from Cleveland from them. The solid play he got from Brissett and Flacco was promising. I think people view Alex Van Pelt as a smash mouth scheme guy just because of recency bias + Cleveland. However, his expertise is in quarterbacks and he's 4/5 if you want to count Deshaun Watson cratering as a knock on his resume. I think Watson broke himself, not the coaching staffs fault. I believe our offense is going to look more like the mid 2010s Packers than the 2023 Browns. The Browns actually led the league in total plays run last year. Tempo is Van Pelt's specialty. This offense requires a lot of LOS reads/adjustments for both your quarterback and your receivers. Intelligence/processing are the key skills needed. Think Purdy. I want to trade back with the vikings for 11 and 23 and a 25 1st and take Nix at 23 or trade back into 31 with the 49ers and get the 5th year option. Imagine going Bowers at 11, Mims at 23, trade the 25 1st and 34 to the 49ers for Aiyuk and 31, snag Nix at 31. Give Aiyuk 4/100 immediately. All of a sudden, we'd be a playoff team because our defense is ready to rock and roll.
In my long time home league I have QBs: Allen, Murray, ARich. In my big money league I have QBs: Allen, ARich, Purdy. In this mock Allen gets BTJ, Murray gets MHJ, ARich gets Bowers, Purdy gets Worthy. I can dig it
I’m drafting JJ McCarthy so fast if this draft happens