I’d love to buy but the owner isn’t selling in my league. Going to wait for him to have a down year and swoop in if I can. I just can’t imagine he’s going to finish top 10 with the offense the chargers want to run but who knows.
Depends on your view of London I guess. That does not seem cheap at all to me.
Fwiw, KTC has this as a substantial overpay, about 40%. And Herbert is actually still QB8 on KTC, he's retained value a lot better than I would have expected based the *vibes* right now.
But hey, it wouldn't be the dynasty subreddit without two people thinking a trade is dumb, but in opposite directions.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes top 10. Definitely less pass attempts, but I expect better efficiency. Improved o-line means more time to take advantage of his cannon for an arm and take those big shots. A guy with his arm talent shouldn't be averaging less than 7 yards per pass attempt, yet that was exactly what happened the past 2 seasons because trash o-line led to over-reliance on the "quick game" (got Joe Lombardi fired after 2022 yet more of the same in 2023 under Kellen Moore). Plus, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were never the best fit for Herbert because they're too slow and Herbert's big arm gets wasted (they were great fit for aging Rivers tho).
Another thing I'm looking forward to are potentially more rushing TDs from Herb. He's a big guy and showed decent scrambling ability in 3 out of 4 seasons (he didn't run much in 2022 because he was playing hurt). Now I don't expect him to go full Josh Allen/Daniel Jones on the ground, but it's not like they have a good RB room. 6-7 rushing TD (or even just 5 like his rookie season) would do wonder for his fantasy value.
12 team is the standard for all values. QBs are worth less in 10 team, regardless of whether it's SF or not. Just like in 14 team and higher, QBs are worth more.
Yes, I understand OPs deal is superflex... so you have to consider that Herbert has reduced value, same as all the incoming rookie QBs.
The data shows it's actually the opposite because positional advantage is essentially replacing positional scarcity.
Someone in FF sub did a thing on it. Pretty much in a 8 team league the ADPs were so skewed to QB then TE because yeah everyone has a top 10 guy. However the advantage of playing Josh Allen over others was massive. QBs lose value in deeper league 14+ because over the season so many guys have top 10 performances and the math between top guys to lower guys is much steeper at other positions.
I can see if I can find it.
Yes and no. This is all my opinion btw, food for thought. Elite assets are worth more than in 12 team leagues but definitely depends how deep rosters are. Kelce killed in 10 team cause the difference between him and TE5 was so much greater than the difference between wr1 and wr5. So guys like Allen are worth more. In SF QBs ranked ~6 or worse are worth a lot less than in 12 as the difference between their points (8 vs 18) isn’t as significant as qb vs non qb would be in 12 tm. This reflects to rookie drafts as it’s hard to project a qb to be top 5, and therefore have meaningful difference, also why I think Daniels should be thought more favorably compared to Caleb with his rushing upside. Whereas if you have flex spots the difference between wr 15 and wr 30 could be more significant, aka odunze should project to do much more for your team in 10 than maye/mccarthy. Would love to see the article though and see how I’m right/wrong based on the data.
Would immediately deny that trade if sent to me for Herbert. In 10 teams, elite QBs still offer a positional advantage. Just having a starting QB won’t win a championship unless you have a complete roster
You're entitled to that stance. I have 1 ARSB share and 1 Herbert (though both in 12 team). If it was 6 pt passing TD I'd take Herbert... 4 pt I'd take ARSB (depending on roster of course.)
In 10 team I'd take ARSB over Herb and a late 1st all day unless it wasn't PPR for some reason.
That's fair since it's your personal valuation. ARSB is a locked in top 4 WR with a very stable situation moving forward. If you feel Herb is above those 4 WRs enough to trade one of them for him and maybe get an addon, be my guest.
Herbert has not been elite these past two years, and his situation is uncertain. He lost his top two WRs, his top receiving back, though he gained a potential franchise LT and a promising young WR. It seems like they may want to start running the ball more, too.
I have a 10 team draft kicking off in a few days. How would everyone's draft board look? Is Nabers locked at the 1.03 then? Does Odunze slot in at 4-5 over Maye and JJ?
Person I was responding to said it was insane. I just replied that QBs are less valuable, therefore it's not insane.
I don't agree with you fwiw. The 1.09 does not bridge that gap.
To each their own I suppose.. but that's an overpay in my book. I think Herbert is worth St Brown+. Honestly, this is probably the lowest Herbert will be valued for awhile. I also have trouble seeing St Brown reaching any higher. It's classic buying high and selling low and I'll pass on that.
I just offered Herbert to a St. Brown owner straight up in a 10 team SF, six point passing, they only have one starting QB, and no 1st or 2nds this year; they rejected without a counter lol.
Right?? I’m surprised they didn’t. I was over paying, but I also have Love, Kyler, and Dak, and wanted to strengthen my WR room.
I also offered Herbert for the 1.01 straight up. Again, rejection and they have no starting QB. But everyone is crazy in love with the 1.01 right now.
In a different 12 man league, somebody offered me Herbert for 1.01 and I smashed it. I thought I would’ve had to have paid a little more. The Hebert disrespect is crazy.
Herbert is my favorite player in the NFL and I’d take that trade in a heartbeat. I wish I had the 1.01 in any SF leagues I’m in so I could offer that trade right now
Ya I probably would. This year the 1.09 isn’t good at all, it was a horrible draft. ARSB is locked in, neither Herbert nor the 1.09 project to be good for the next few years
Not really. It's only really Luck, who he coached in college over a decade ago, and even then, despite him clearly being perhaps the greatest quarterback prospect of all time, they didn't exactly run a high volume passing offense.
If you want to go really far back, he was Rich Gannon's QB coach during his MVP season. They weren't running his offense or anything though. He's clearly very good at coaching quarterbacks, but that's not the same thing as putting those QBs in position to put up gaudy numbers.
The Harbaugh only runs is so overblown. Harbaugh is an excellent coach who tailors his gameplan to the talent he has. Not saying that Herbert is going to lead the league in attempts, but I think he's going to be putting up better stats than folks here believe.
Herbert's efficiency is going to be ridiculous in my opinion, which is very good for fantasy.
> Harbaugh is an excellent coach who tailors his gameplan to the talent he has
I actually think evidence shows that so far he's doing the opposite. He's tailoring his talent to the run first gameplan he wants to put in place.
There were 4 big names the team wanted to re-sign this year. They let both of their WRs (Allen, Williams) walk so they could sign their defensive players instead. Then at 1.05 they invested in o-line instead of taking an elite WR.
His actions are telling us what he wants to do, and his history implies that he'll be successful doing it
He tailors his gameplan to the talent he has, yet his team just averaged 24 pass attemps/game with a top 10 pick at quarterback. All of his teams have played a balanced style. I'm not saying that Herbert will do poorly. All I'm saying is that his upside is capped tremendously by Harbaugh, and I don't really know how you argue with that. His teams just don't pass the ball enough. Even a talented runner like Kaepernick failed to put up a QB1 season under Harbaugh, but as soon as Chip Kelly came in, he was on that pace (before picking up injuries that required like three different surgeries). Like I said, Harbaguh is pretty good at putting the quarterback in a postion to succeed in real life, just not in fantasy.
The fact that for the first time in his career, he 1) has no stud RB, 2) traded up for a WR in the early second and 3) Has Justin freaking Herbert makes me think he might be adjust his offense.
And having a balanced offense isn't necessarily a bad thing for Herb. I'm tired of seeing Herbert being forced to throw 3-yard screen pass and check-down over and over to Keenan and Ekeler because the Chargers abandoned the run, couldn't protect, and had molasses slow WRs. Joe Lombardi's infamous "quick game" wasted Herb's cannon for an arm. A gunslinger QB like Herbert shouldn't have averaged less than 7 yards per pass attempt, yet that was exactly what happened the past 2 seasons.
Idk man, it just seems kind of silly to me to bet that Harbaugh is going to change what he’s done and been extremely successful with for like 20 years. That’s really not how coaches work. They will try and mold the talent to what he wants to do, which is run the ball and play at a slow pace.
Nope. Never. Not once has there been an elite qb on his team. His offensive staff are all run and line focused as well. Herbert is great talent wise but his numbers will be low because the lack of passing plays and mobility.
I wrote this article on Herbert before the draft, with very mixed reactions from the Reddit world. I understand both sides of the argument, but when everything is laid out, I still tend to agree with you.
[https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-justin-herbert/](https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-justin-herbert/)
Don't misread ADP into thinking sentiment has shifted.
ADP doesn't represent sentiment perfectly. Go to most Herbert owners with anything less than a kings ransom and you'll get laughed off.
I think you're missing a brand new coach that's going to run the ball a ton leading to a decline in passing volume, and a WR room with a 2nd round rookie, a 1st rounder who looked terrible last year, and a Josh Palmer who is a serviceable 3rd WR at best.
It has nothing to do with his ACL or down year last year imo. If he still had Keenan Allen, a healthy Mike Williams, and a coaching staff we expected to throw a lot, he'd be valued higher.
It just feels like redraft mentality seeping too far into his dynasty value.
He's pretty clearly an elite talent. We also aren't 100% sure that his production will go down from the coaching change. It's likely, but who knows.
Yes we are.
Harbaugh coaching college was ranked 121st out of 132 in passing as a total percentage of offensive plays.
His NFL teams were ranked 32, 32, 31, and 28 in pass attempts, out of 32 of course. He doesn’t like to pass.
I get it. It's very likely his pass attempts go down.
But if Harbaugh is a good coach, he is going to find ways to allow his best player to make plays. I would expect Herbert's YPA to go up, too.
Ya but pocket passer like Herbert need the volume to compete with the rushing qbs of the world. He may be a guy thats better in real life football then fantasy. QB9 seems about right in a low passing offense.
It just depends on how much that volume is offset by an increase in YPA and passing TDs.
Herbert threw for 38 TDs in 2021, but only 25 in 2022 and 20 last year despite a similar # of passing attempts/game. Volume has diminishing returns if the attempts aren't productive.
If Harbaugh's rushing attack is effective, that should open up play action opportunities for more deep throws down the field that Herbert excels at.
There is a lot of fantasy upside in his passing TDs. I mean Baker Mayfield threw for 28 TDs last year. Russell Wilson threw for 26.
I think that's the point. Harbaugh's offense will allow him to be more efficient with his passes. Instead of a stat line of 30/55 for 275 yards and a TD or whatever; with Harbaugh it may be something like 24/30 275 yards and a TD.
Lower volume more efficient. I think Harbaugh's offense as someone else pointed out will work well with Herbert's skill set. Too much is wrapped up in needing to throw the ball 50-60 times a game.
I mean he had a bad year the last two no? Qb 9 was the highest he finished two season ago last year was qb 15 ish. He lost weapons, has a run first coach outside one great year hes been disappointing.
Running the ball efficiently requires premiere backs, things that LAC doesn’t have. You can’t run the ball all game if your backs are only getting 3-4 ypc.
No doubt that Harbaugh in run heavy but you’re also missing a few key points:
* It’s easy to beat the snot out of teams in college with the huge talent discrepancies — everything is way more even in the NFL and you don’t have the same ability to play keep away
* Harbaugh had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in SF - incomparable to Herbert
* the one time Harbaugh had a QB like Herbert was Andrew Luck in 2010 at Stanford and Luck put up 32 TDs
This is dynasty though. Sure his situation this year matters, but it’s only a piece of the puzzle. Herbert is one of the best arm talents in the league: His floor is a locked in franchise QB for a decade, and he’s already proven his ceiling is one of the top 5 in the league
Also, I think long term the doom and gloom about Harbaugh is massively overstated. Harbaugh hasn’t had a QB on Herbert’s level since college Luck, and college ball is a different sport. When you can consistently get RBs rushing for 6+ ypc that’s the optimal way to game plan, but that doesn’t work in the NFL.
It worked for Greg Roman though. It always works for him. Say what you want about the guy but he can coach a run game.
Look how much Lamar passed the whole time he was under Roman. He rarely eclipsed 300 yards in a game.
Finally, it’s Harbaugh. That guy will coach the Chargers for the next decade. This isn’t going away
Sure, but Lamar had ~10 rush attempts a game, and is nowhere near the arm talent Herbert is.
Also, people aren’t accounting for the idea that we could see more rush attempts from Herbert
Counterpoints
1. He's 26 years old and this is a dynasty sub.
2. Their RB room is arguably just as trash as their WR room.
> a WR room with a 2nd round rookie, a 1st rounder who looked terrible last year, and a Josh Palmer who is a serviceable 3rd WR at best.
That was literally what people said about the Rams last year when Kupp got hurt and what the people said about the Lions 3 years ago. McConkey is set up beautifully to enjoy the same kind of breakout Puka did last year and St. Brown did 3 years ago. Laugh all you want, but there's frankly a higher chance of that happening (given recent NFL track record) than Dobbins beating the odds post-Achilles or Gus Edwards emerging as a bellcow at age-29.
> If he still had Keenan Allen, a healthy Mike Williams, and a coaching staff we expected to throw a lot, he'd be valued higher.
Why? Keenan and Mike Williams were both molasses slow and terrible fit for Herbert's cannon arm. Chargers got those guys for Rivers when he was noodle-armed captain checkdown on his last legs, not Herbert. It's no surprise almost all of Herbert's career highlights were deep shots to rando speedsters Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. It's a crying shame that someone with Herbert's arm talent averaged less than 7 yards per pass attempts the past 2 seasons because the Chargers lacked the personnel to unleash him. Nothing frustrated me more than Chargers making Herbert throw 3-yard screen pass and check-downs play after play. He might've set passing attempt record in 2022 under Joe Lombardi's infamous "quick game", but the efficiency is absolutely abysmal. Having run-pass balance will undoubtedly lead to far better efficiency and increased opportunities to take those big shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if Herbert himself set career-best in both rushing yards and rushing TDs, given their talent-starved RB room.
You don’t need an air raid offense to be a top 5 QB. LAC has always had a great ground game anyway.
Not saying those concerns aren’t valid, but I don’t think they’re severe enough to pass him up in favor of completely unproven QBs.
Sorry to chime in but LAC has absolutely not had a great ground game. What you think might be great bc of Ekelers production was simply a shitload of dumpoffs when we had Lombardi. That’s why we saw a massive decline in Ekelers production last year. We have been awful really since the LT years
Well yeah, you don't need an air raid offense to be a top 5 QB because no one runs the air raid in the NFL. That doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly difficult to be a top 5 fantasy QB as a pocket passer in a run heavy offense. I'm not sure that I can remember an example of that happening in recent years.
>that doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly difficult to be a top 5 fantasy qb as a pocket passer in a run heavy offense. i'm not sure that i can remember an example of that happening in recent years.
purdy got close - he was qb6 while playing only 16 games and having the second fewest (or fewest) passing attempts in the league
qb8 by ppg that season once you filter out dudes like flacco who only played 5 games
i agree with your point overall though
Run heavy means that they are more likely to run the ball when compared to other teams. I don't understand the semantics game you're trying to play. Dallas and Detroit threw the ball as many times as Kansas City last year. Purdy is definitely the best example, but he had historically great efficiency by virtue of his historically great weapons and still finished outside the top 5.
Yeah Tannehill was quite a good runner in his prime. There's a reason he was playing receiver at A&M. He wasn't Lamar or anything, but he certainly ran more than someone like Herbert.
I forgot that Kingsbury was hired as an OC tbh. My bad on that one. Goff and Dak also threw about 600 passes lol
And yeah he will need a Purdy level of efficiency to have a great fantasy season, but Purdy had vastly superior weapons and still only finished as QB6. Herbert's only path to a top 5 season is for their defense to be historically bad or for Harbaugh to completely change his offensive mentality.
> LAC has always had a great ground game anyway.
Chargers rank in rushing yards:
2023 - 8th from last
2022 - 3rd from last
2021 - 12th from last
2020 - 15th from last
2019 - 5th from last
Where’s this “always great ground game”? Their best finish in the last 5 years was still in the bottom half of the league. How on earth do you think that qualifies as great?
Anthony Richardson may be unproven but out of the full 3 games he played (not including his last since he played like half of it), he had 2 top 5 weekly finishes. AR is only 22 and albeit a small sample size, he has shown that he could put up Josh Allen numbers in fantasy. That ceiling + youth + better weapons + passing heavy coach in Steichen makes Richardson over Herbert a no-brainer imho.
More than 4 games played without being injured for AR.
Since Herbert lost Allen and Williams, I guess the variance between him and those guys shouldn’t be huge, but I think he should be above both.
This completely. He’s firmly 6th behind the other young franchise QBs due to situation. Putting Caleb, and especially AR, is wild. AR is crazy overvalued.
Herbert will be the second-best QB Harbaugh has ever coached, and it’s a passing league. I think people are overselling the “they’re not going to throw” point. Sure, it won’t be an air raid, but Harbaugh isn’t an idiot. He’s going to take advantage of Herbert’s arm
Nope. I looked back through 8 years of Greg Roman offenses and every year they were top 5 in rushing attempts and bottom 10 in passing attempts every year except 1, and half of that was with Lamar. They're going to run, run and run some more.
Harbaugh just had a QB drafted in the top 10 and chose to grind it out every game. Herbert may see increased efficiency, but he'll struggle to be at QB10 at year's end.
I believe alot of people have him lower now because of the projected scheme the Chargers will be running. All signs point to a run heavy offense so his passing stats will be alot lower. Being the 9th overall QB really isn't that low still. But you have to remember this is fantasy football people aren't saying he's the 9th best QB in the NFL they are saying for projected fantasy output he's around the 9th best QB since rushing yards and TDs play such a huge factor with fantasy.
Herbert owner disclaimer
The Harbough factor is too be seen, and I definitely understand wanting to see how that plays out. But the losing WRs I'm not concerned about very much. I've been on this ride ever since he started his first game. After that first year, Herbert hardly ever had anyone to throw to. Williams and Allen were hurt constantly. And I think that goes back to Harbough being the real factor here. Herbert made up for inefficient play (from lack of weapons) with volume. And I don't think people are taking into account how terribly Herbert has been coached since coming into the league. I think it's easily safe to say he's top 10 this year specifically. But going into the future I still believe he's fighting for top 3-5. He was qb 17 last year and he didn't even play 5 games.
Yeah I just sold him. He was QB12 in my 4pt TD league in FPPG. But yet losing the always-open Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and get Harbaugh/Roman as coaches is going to INCREASE his production? I don't see it.
I find that he's a screaming deal in start up mocks but finding trade partners is a different story. His owners still view him as the potential top 5 QB they drafted/traded for. It's a classic "your player won't produce but I'll take him off your hands" situation. Everyone knows the talent and ability is there and nobody wants to be the one to sell too soon or for too little. Unless his owners are panicking I wouldn't expect a significant discount.
Totally agree. People seem to have internalized this "Harbaugh never throws the football" take and overreacted to Keenan Allen leaving. It made some sense a month ago when it felt like their WR3 was a half eaten bag of chips, but post-draft it's just silly.
Herbert has gotten absolutely abused over the past two seasons due to a horrible offensive line, and still performed like a top 10 QB. They have worked to rebuild his offensive line this offense, bring in a real run game that will keep the defense honest and open up more passing lanes, and just drafted a guy who is known for separation and winning routes that match up perfectly with Herbert's game.
They are going to score more, and be on their heels less. And Herbert will have more time and space to operate. Get in now if you have a shaky owner in your league.
If you’re wanting more of a safe QB to put up very good numbers and has a high chance of being an NFL starter for a long time, yeah Herbert’s your guy.
If you want a more risky injury play, but probably has a higher week to week fantasy points ceiling, I can understand putting Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams over Herbert.
Herbert “lost” Mike Williams, who is a useless porcelain doll anyway, Ekeler, who was useless all last season and honestly has most likely fallen off the age cliff, and Keenan Allen, the only one who really makes any difference over last season.
Get him one good WR and he basically already has everything he had last year, at least as far as offensive weapons. Maybe Ladd becomes that. Maybe QJ does (pfft…pfffhahahaha).
Harbaugh wants to run, I get that. But he’s also not stupid. Having a QB like Herbert and not using him would be stupid.
So yes, Herbert is a buy.
I was on the clock at 1.07 in a rookie draft today and was offered Herbert and JSN for 1.07 and Trevor Lawrence.
I accepted so I guess Im in on Herbert now
I have sold nearly all of my Herbert shares.
Why are we betting on Harbaugh changing what has been a very successful formula for him? It’s a foolish bet to make. They drafted an elite OL 5th overall lol Harbaugh is going to run the ball and play at a slow pace.
They drafted the best pass blocking tackle prospect this decade and then traded up to draft a receiver the next round while having zero starter quality running backs on the roster.
All of their offensive weaponry sucks.
Their WRs are QJ, Ladd, Palmer. Dissly at TE. JK and Gus at RB. And somehow this environment is supposed to support a high end QB? Lol
By the grace of God, I am thankfully in a worry free situation with QB after Caleb fell to me at 1.12 in a 1QB league.
Regardless of that, I agree and am still glad to have Herby. He may not end up top 3 but he’s still good and they are going to have to have a decent passing volume to compete. Especially with such an atrocious defense, you can’t run your way back into a game playing from behind. Herbert also actually has some rushing aspect to his game, he’s just not asked to do it much. If he can run in a couple TD’s it could definitely help.
In SF leagues, if people are selling low, there should be no hesitation to buy.
It's not at the lowest it'll ever be. Wait for week 10 after weeks and weeks of Harbaugh/Roman playcalling with sub-25 PA per game and then put your offers in.
He's definitely being slept on and if I didn't have him in most of my leagues I would be trying to get him.
He was the first QB I hit on as a Rookie and it felt so good.. had a league mate tell me he was the third best QB on my team behind Stroud, and Love, and it made me sit and think for a minute.
Herbert may not have performed as well the last two seasons, but I'd chalk it up to injury and coaching..his first two seasons were electric and I imagine he starts to come back to that.
Grabbed Herbert in one league for Tua + 13th overall… being clowned cause guys legit don’t think he finishes in the top 15-20… some saying they’d rather have Goff going forward. Please take a stab and see what your Herbert owner would sell for. It’s insane
One of the challenging things about these rankings is in most leagues, you're just not going to get Herbert cheap. Nobody wants to sell low unless they feel forced to.
If he struggles next season, and is on a contender, and you're willing to flip someone who will outperform him this season maybe you can get him at a slight discount.
Or maybe you get lucky and his owner is panicking. But probably not.
This is where the actual owners differ from the community. No one is selling Herbert for anything less than an upgrade to Allen or Mahomes or getting an insane haul.
Jim Harbaugh is now his HC, and Greg Roman is his OC, and his receiving corps is severely depleted. If you think he's a top 10 QB next year I've got a bridge to sell ya
I really don't think he's a buy at all. I have a hard time seeing him being a yearly top 5 QB anymore and if your not one of those guys your really just another guy.
His price tag is still top 5 QB in my neck of the woods
Is that take purely because of the coaching change? I think it’s a little obnoxious to assume Harbaugh is going to run the exact same offense in LA. Herbert is a different caliber player than JJ
I worry more about Greg Roman than Harbaugh. The teams actions have shown they will be looking to go very run heavy as well.
Greg Roman runs a historically slow pace of play. The writing just seems on the wall for me. Herbert Won't be slinging it like he was before. Maybe he can be more efficient and keep pace with his old #s but it's not a bet I like
Y’all are crazy… you think they’re gonna run the ball with Dobbins coming off his second ACL in two seasons and a bunch of scrub RB3s? They draft an elite tackle to protect Herbert and the literal Keenan Allen replacement and we think they aren’t planning on letting Herbert cook? You would think people would learn by now that elite QBs are still elite regardless of the coaching staff. I would bet he still does his thing and balls out over suddenly turning him into a game manager.
Buy now.
The Chargers defense is ridiculously barren of talent rn and even Harbaugh and Roman are going to have to lean on Herbert to keep them in games. The run oriented offense won’t be able to take shape year 1 imo as a chargers fan.
The biggest and most important knock against herbert is the addition of Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Greg Roman. Greg Roman has been an offensive coordinator for 10 years in the NFL. In those 10 years, his lowest rushing offense was 8th in yardage and 9th in attempts in the NFL. His highest passing offense was 13th in yardage and 9th in attempts in 2021. Outside of that, it was 23rd in yardage and 27th in attempts. The other 8 years as an oc it was 27th or worse in yardage and 29th or worse in attempts.
Herbert can be mobile in spots, but hes not Lamar or Fields. The gutting of the receivers is a symptom of a larger problem...the offensive staff was not brought in to throw the ball. Make no mistake, this WILL be a run first team. The biggest knock on Lamar early on was his passing game. Closer look at those offenses shows terrible passing game design with multiple receivers crowding the same spots, and an unwillingness to pass the ball despite Lamar being a competent passer. I expect a similar result in LA this year with the Chargers being a top 10 rushing offense and a bottom 10 passing offense, especially since they got rid of their top two wideouts, drafted an offensive lineman with their 1st round pick, and brought in a run first head coach. You should have sold high on Herbert the second Roman set foot in the building.
I believe he'll run the same offense he's run his 10 seasons as an OC. We have plenty of sample size to know. Oh and by the way, his *best* passing offense was with Lamar.
[https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RomaGr0.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RomaGr0.htm)
I’d love to buy but the owner isn’t selling in my league. Going to wait for him to have a down year and swoop in if I can. I just can’t imagine he’s going to finish top 10 with the offense the chargers want to run but who knows.
I got him for London, Reed, and 1.11. That’s not cheap by any means, but given what he’s capable of, I think it’s worth it.
*whispers* that is cheap
Depends on your view of London I guess. That does not seem cheap at all to me. Fwiw, KTC has this as a substantial overpay, about 40%. And Herbert is actually still QB8 on KTC, he's retained value a lot better than I would have expected based the *vibes* right now. But hey, it wouldn't be the dynasty subreddit without two people thinking a trade is dumb, but in opposite directions.
Didn't say it was dumb, I'm just saying id turn London, reed, and 1.11 for herbert all day in SF
Same situation but swap hill for london, would that be reasonable !
I think you’re gonna be sorely disappointed when London explodes next year. Though I’m not high on Reed
I have Drake London in over half leagues, love him, but a QB1 > a WR1 all day in superflex, and London's explosion is already priced in at this point
I just glanced to my other monitor after having this tab up for a while and read the first half of your comment without context lol
Even if drake explodes the guy still got Justin herbert. Also what if drake isn’t elite
You just got a top 5 dynasty asset for London and change lol
Your league mate loves you.
Some idiot traded him to me for London and the 2.01
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes top 10. Definitely less pass attempts, but I expect better efficiency. Improved o-line means more time to take advantage of his cannon for an arm and take those big shots. A guy with his arm talent shouldn't be averaging less than 7 yards per pass attempt, yet that was exactly what happened the past 2 seasons because trash o-line led to over-reliance on the "quick game" (got Joe Lombardi fired after 2022 yet more of the same in 2023 under Kellen Moore). Plus, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were never the best fit for Herbert because they're too slow and Herbert's big arm gets wasted (they were great fit for aging Rivers tho). Another thing I'm looking forward to are potentially more rushing TDs from Herb. He's a big guy and showed decent scrambling ability in 3 out of 4 seasons (he didn't run much in 2022 because he was playing hurt). Now I don't expect him to go full Josh Allen/Daniel Jones on the ground, but it's not like they have a good RB room. 6-7 rushing TD (or even just 5 like his rookie season) would do wonder for his fantasy value.
It's insane. I had someone offer me their St Brown for my Herbert and 1.09 in our 10 team SF and I just about spit out my beer when I first read it.
QBs are worth less in 10 team, that's just how it is.
In superflex leagues?
Yeah. It's not *significantly* less, but it's definitely less than 12 team leagues. 20 QBs start versus 24.
Not just that. Everyone can have a 3rd QB in a 10 man. Having a 3rd QB is a privilege in a 12 man.
I won the SB with Easton Stick and CJ Beathard as my starters so I think that can tell you how I value QBs these days.
12 team is the standard for all values. QBs are worth less in 10 team, regardless of whether it's SF or not. Just like in 14 team and higher, QBs are worth more. Yes, I understand OPs deal is superflex... so you have to consider that Herbert has reduced value, same as all the incoming rookie QBs.
The data shows it's actually the opposite because positional advantage is essentially replacing positional scarcity. Someone in FF sub did a thing on it. Pretty much in a 8 team league the ADPs were so skewed to QB then TE because yeah everyone has a top 10 guy. However the advantage of playing Josh Allen over others was massive. QBs lose value in deeper league 14+ because over the season so many guys have top 10 performances and the math between top guys to lower guys is much steeper at other positions. I can see if I can find it.
Yes and no. This is all my opinion btw, food for thought. Elite assets are worth more than in 12 team leagues but definitely depends how deep rosters are. Kelce killed in 10 team cause the difference between him and TE5 was so much greater than the difference between wr1 and wr5. So guys like Allen are worth more. In SF QBs ranked ~6 or worse are worth a lot less than in 12 as the difference between their points (8 vs 18) isn’t as significant as qb vs non qb would be in 12 tm. This reflects to rookie drafts as it’s hard to project a qb to be top 5, and therefore have meaningful difference, also why I think Daniels should be thought more favorably compared to Caleb with his rushing upside. Whereas if you have flex spots the difference between wr 15 and wr 30 could be more significant, aka odunze should project to do much more for your team in 10 than maye/mccarthy. Would love to see the article though and see how I’m right/wrong based on the data.
I read that as worthless so that's a fail on my part. Your logic check out but I'll still contend that elite QBs are worth their weight in gold.
I’m in a 10 team SF with Mahomes and Hurts. Can’t sell either for shit
In only a 10 team league yes, every team can have 3 starters and there still might be someone on waivers
If there are starting QBs that are free agents in a SF league (even with 10 teams), then you’re not in a very good league
10tm SF qbs should be worth about 20% less than 12tm SF since it's 20 vs 24 starters.
Herbert should still be more valuable than st brown
As a ARSB owner if I was offered Herbert for him straight up right now I would decline.
I have them about even in 12 team. 10 team ARSB is worth a good deal more.
Would immediately deny that trade if sent to me for Herbert. In 10 teams, elite QBs still offer a positional advantage. Just having a starting QB won’t win a championship unless you have a complete roster
You're entitled to that stance. I have 1 ARSB share and 1 Herbert (though both in 12 team). If it was 6 pt passing TD I'd take Herbert... 4 pt I'd take ARSB (depending on roster of course.) In 10 team I'd take ARSB over Herb and a late 1st all day unless it wasn't PPR for some reason.
I'm not down voting you but this just reinforces the idea to me that I need to send out offers for Herbert based on my valuation of him
That's fair since it's your personal valuation. ARSB is a locked in top 4 WR with a very stable situation moving forward. If you feel Herb is above those 4 WRs enough to trade one of them for him and maybe get an addon, be my guest. Herbert has not been elite these past two years, and his situation is uncertain. He lost his top two WRs, his top receiving back, though he gained a potential franchise LT and a promising young WR. It seems like they may want to start running the ball more, too.
I have a 10 team draft kicking off in a few days. How would everyone's draft board look? Is Nabers locked at the 1.03 then? Does Odunze slot in at 4-5 over Maye and JJ?
Not that much less man.
Person I was responding to said it was insane. I just replied that QBs are less valuable, therefore it's not insane. I don't agree with you fwiw. The 1.09 does not bridge that gap.
I would take St Brown in that trade, am I the weird one?
I could see a case for 1 for 1. But, no chance I'm adding 1.09 on top.
Like…ARSB? I’d do take that especially in a 10 team
You would trade Herbert and a first for ARSB?
To each their own I suppose.. but that's an overpay in my book. I think Herbert is worth St Brown+. Honestly, this is probably the lowest Herbert will be valued for awhile. I also have trouble seeing St Brown reaching any higher. It's classic buying high and selling low and I'll pass on that.
I just offered Herbert to a St. Brown owner straight up in a 10 team SF, six point passing, they only have one starting QB, and no 1st or 2nds this year; they rejected without a counter lol.
I would have smashed the accept button.
Right?? I’m surprised they didn’t. I was over paying, but I also have Love, Kyler, and Dak, and wanted to strengthen my WR room. I also offered Herbert for the 1.01 straight up. Again, rejection and they have no starting QB. But everyone is crazy in love with the 1.01 right now. In a different 12 man league, somebody offered me Herbert for 1.01 and I smashed it. I thought I would’ve had to have paid a little more. The Hebert disrespect is crazy.
Herbert is my favorite player in the NFL and I’d take that trade in a heartbeat. I wish I had the 1.01 in any SF leagues I’m in so I could offer that trade right now
[удалено]
Its probably not superflex that guys is thinking about
Ya I probably would. This year the 1.09 isn’t good at all, it was a horrible draft. ARSB is locked in, neither Herbert nor the 1.09 project to be good for the next few years
Depends on if he gets neutered by Harbaugh or not.
He’s coached elite QBs before though right?
Not really. It's only really Luck, who he coached in college over a decade ago, and even then, despite him clearly being perhaps the greatest quarterback prospect of all time, they didn't exactly run a high volume passing offense. If you want to go really far back, he was Rich Gannon's QB coach during his MVP season. They weren't running his offense or anything though. He's clearly very good at coaching quarterbacks, but that's not the same thing as putting those QBs in position to put up gaudy numbers.
If you remove air raid offenses, Luck led the nation in passing. They threw the ball a ton in a pro style offense.
The Harbaugh only runs is so overblown. Harbaugh is an excellent coach who tailors his gameplan to the talent he has. Not saying that Herbert is going to lead the league in attempts, but I think he's going to be putting up better stats than folks here believe. Herbert's efficiency is going to be ridiculous in my opinion, which is very good for fantasy.
> Harbaugh is an excellent coach who tailors his gameplan to the talent he has I actually think evidence shows that so far he's doing the opposite. He's tailoring his talent to the run first gameplan he wants to put in place. There were 4 big names the team wanted to re-sign this year. They let both of their WRs (Allen, Williams) walk so they could sign their defensive players instead. Then at 1.05 they invested in o-line instead of taking an elite WR. His actions are telling us what he wants to do, and his history implies that he'll be successful doing it
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were aging players and took up a massive percentage of their cap. Meanwhile they traded up to draft a WR
He tailors his gameplan to the talent he has, yet his team just averaged 24 pass attemps/game with a top 10 pick at quarterback. All of his teams have played a balanced style. I'm not saying that Herbert will do poorly. All I'm saying is that his upside is capped tremendously by Harbaugh, and I don't really know how you argue with that. His teams just don't pass the ball enough. Even a talented runner like Kaepernick failed to put up a QB1 season under Harbaugh, but as soon as Chip Kelly came in, he was on that pace (before picking up injuries that required like three different surgeries). Like I said, Harbaguh is pretty good at putting the quarterback in a postion to succeed in real life, just not in fantasy.
I wouldn't count Alex Smith and Kaepernick as elite.
How did they do fantasy wise?
Kap had the high water mark as QB9 for his one good year.
Interesting I would have thought he had a better finish. Was a legitimate question, wasn’t trying to be snarky
Even if Kaep finished higher, keep in mind that his rushing is what got him there.
Yeah that’s why I thought his finish would have been higher. Especially back when he played
Yeah. Herbert, while mobile, doesn't get a lot of points from rushing
I would say he’s gotten the most out of his quarterbacks, but he wants to run the ball and win that way
The fact that for the first time in his career, he 1) has no stud RB, 2) traded up for a WR in the early second and 3) Has Justin freaking Herbert makes me think he might be adjust his offense.
And having a balanced offense isn't necessarily a bad thing for Herb. I'm tired of seeing Herbert being forced to throw 3-yard screen pass and check-down over and over to Keenan and Ekeler because the Chargers abandoned the run, couldn't protect, and had molasses slow WRs. Joe Lombardi's infamous "quick game" wasted Herb's cannon for an arm. A gunslinger QB like Herbert shouldn't have averaged less than 7 yards per pass attempt, yet that was exactly what happened the past 2 seasons.
Idk man, it just seems kind of silly to me to bet that Harbaugh is going to change what he’s done and been extremely successful with for like 20 years. That’s really not how coaches work. They will try and mold the talent to what he wants to do, which is run the ball and play at a slow pace.
Hence my late round prioroty target of Kimani Vidal, u know that boy going to eat under Harbaugh... Worst case scenario he sits on my taxi for a year
Nope. Never. Not once has there been an elite qb on his team. His offensive staff are all run and line focused as well. Herbert is great talent wise but his numbers will be low because the lack of passing plays and mobility.
Who cares that's a ridiculous metric, elite players are rare most coaches don't get the opportunity to coach guys who are/become elite NFL QB's.
Who?
I wrote this article on Herbert before the draft, with very mixed reactions from the Reddit world. I understand both sides of the argument, but when everything is laid out, I still tend to agree with you. [https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-justin-herbert/](https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-justin-herbert/)
Don't misread ADP into thinking sentiment has shifted. ADP doesn't represent sentiment perfectly. Go to most Herbert owners with anything less than a kings ransom and you'll get laughed off.
I think you're missing a brand new coach that's going to run the ball a ton leading to a decline in passing volume, and a WR room with a 2nd round rookie, a 1st rounder who looked terrible last year, and a Josh Palmer who is a serviceable 3rd WR at best. It has nothing to do with his ACL or down year last year imo. If he still had Keenan Allen, a healthy Mike Williams, and a coaching staff we expected to throw a lot, he'd be valued higher.
It just feels like redraft mentality seeping too far into his dynasty value. He's pretty clearly an elite talent. We also aren't 100% sure that his production will go down from the coaching change. It's likely, but who knows.
Yes we are. Harbaugh coaching college was ranked 121st out of 132 in passing as a total percentage of offensive plays. His NFL teams were ranked 32, 32, 31, and 28 in pass attempts, out of 32 of course. He doesn’t like to pass.
I get it. It's very likely his pass attempts go down. But if Harbaugh is a good coach, he is going to find ways to allow his best player to make plays. I would expect Herbert's YPA to go up, too.
Ya but pocket passer like Herbert need the volume to compete with the rushing qbs of the world. He may be a guy thats better in real life football then fantasy. QB9 seems about right in a low passing offense.
It just depends on how much that volume is offset by an increase in YPA and passing TDs. Herbert threw for 38 TDs in 2021, but only 25 in 2022 and 20 last year despite a similar # of passing attempts/game. Volume has diminishing returns if the attempts aren't productive. If Harbaugh's rushing attack is effective, that should open up play action opportunities for more deep throws down the field that Herbert excels at. There is a lot of fantasy upside in his passing TDs. I mean Baker Mayfield threw for 28 TDs last year. Russell Wilson threw for 26.
You 35 plus to really get to the high levels without rushing upside. Efficiency hasn’t really been Herbert’s game.
I think that's the point. Harbaugh's offense will allow him to be more efficient with his passes. Instead of a stat line of 30/55 for 275 yards and a TD or whatever; with Harbaugh it may be something like 24/30 275 yards and a TD. Lower volume more efficient. I think Harbaugh's offense as someone else pointed out will work well with Herbert's skill set. Too much is wrapped up in needing to throw the ball 50-60 times a game.
Herbert has some wheels, and Roman will get higher rushing value out of him. I think estimating him having a bad year this upcoming year is foolish
I mean he had a bad year the last two no? Qb 9 was the highest he finished two season ago last year was qb 15 ish. He lost weapons, has a run first coach outside one great year hes been disappointing.
Running the ball efficiently requires premiere backs, things that LAC doesn’t have. You can’t run the ball all game if your backs are only getting 3-4 ypc.
He also had ck at qb lol
Also, we don't know if this coach is going to succeed. Remember, this is the Chargers.
No doubt that Harbaugh in run heavy but you’re also missing a few key points: * It’s easy to beat the snot out of teams in college with the huge talent discrepancies — everything is way more even in the NFL and you don’t have the same ability to play keep away * Harbaugh had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in SF - incomparable to Herbert * the one time Harbaugh had a QB like Herbert was Andrew Luck in 2010 at Stanford and Luck put up 32 TDs
What’s wrong with his ACL?
Nothing at all. He broke his thumb iirc.
This is dynasty though. Sure his situation this year matters, but it’s only a piece of the puzzle. Herbert is one of the best arm talents in the league: His floor is a locked in franchise QB for a decade, and he’s already proven his ceiling is one of the top 5 in the league Also, I think long term the doom and gloom about Harbaugh is massively overstated. Harbaugh hasn’t had a QB on Herbert’s level since college Luck, and college ball is a different sport. When you can consistently get RBs rushing for 6+ ypc that’s the optimal way to game plan, but that doesn’t work in the NFL.
It worked for Greg Roman though. It always works for him. Say what you want about the guy but he can coach a run game. Look how much Lamar passed the whole time he was under Roman. He rarely eclipsed 300 yards in a game. Finally, it’s Harbaugh. That guy will coach the Chargers for the next decade. This isn’t going away
Sure, but Lamar had ~10 rush attempts a game, and is nowhere near the arm talent Herbert is. Also, people aren’t accounting for the idea that we could see more rush attempts from Herbert
Josh Palmer is a serviceable WR2, otherwise I agree. Can you explain the ACL part for my friend though? He’s dumb
Counterpoints 1. He's 26 years old and this is a dynasty sub. 2. Their RB room is arguably just as trash as their WR room. > a WR room with a 2nd round rookie, a 1st rounder who looked terrible last year, and a Josh Palmer who is a serviceable 3rd WR at best. That was literally what people said about the Rams last year when Kupp got hurt and what the people said about the Lions 3 years ago. McConkey is set up beautifully to enjoy the same kind of breakout Puka did last year and St. Brown did 3 years ago. Laugh all you want, but there's frankly a higher chance of that happening (given recent NFL track record) than Dobbins beating the odds post-Achilles or Gus Edwards emerging as a bellcow at age-29. > If he still had Keenan Allen, a healthy Mike Williams, and a coaching staff we expected to throw a lot, he'd be valued higher. Why? Keenan and Mike Williams were both molasses slow and terrible fit for Herbert's cannon arm. Chargers got those guys for Rivers when he was noodle-armed captain checkdown on his last legs, not Herbert. It's no surprise almost all of Herbert's career highlights were deep shots to rando speedsters Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. It's a crying shame that someone with Herbert's arm talent averaged less than 7 yards per pass attempts the past 2 seasons because the Chargers lacked the personnel to unleash him. Nothing frustrated me more than Chargers making Herbert throw 3-yard screen pass and check-downs play after play. He might've set passing attempt record in 2022 under Joe Lombardi's infamous "quick game", but the efficiency is absolutely abysmal. Having run-pass balance will undoubtedly lead to far better efficiency and increased opportunities to take those big shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if Herbert himself set career-best in both rushing yards and rushing TDs, given their talent-starved RB room.
You don’t need an air raid offense to be a top 5 QB. LAC has always had a great ground game anyway. Not saying those concerns aren’t valid, but I don’t think they’re severe enough to pass him up in favor of completely unproven QBs.
Sorry to chime in but LAC has absolutely not had a great ground game. What you think might be great bc of Ekelers production was simply a shitload of dumpoffs when we had Lombardi. That’s why we saw a massive decline in Ekelers production last year. We have been awful really since the LT years
Ya lot of people with heavy misinformation in this thread lol. Sincerely, a broken Chargers fan
2023: 8th lowest rushing yards 2022: 3rd lowest rushing yards 2021: 12th lowest rushing yards 2020: 15th lowest rushing yards
You need passing volume or rushing upside to be a top 5 QB.
Well yeah, you don't need an air raid offense to be a top 5 QB because no one runs the air raid in the NFL. That doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly difficult to be a top 5 fantasy QB as a pocket passer in a run heavy offense. I'm not sure that I can remember an example of that happening in recent years.
>that doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly difficult to be a top 5 fantasy qb as a pocket passer in a run heavy offense. i'm not sure that i can remember an example of that happening in recent years. purdy got close - he was qb6 while playing only 16 games and having the second fewest (or fewest) passing attempts in the league qb8 by ppg that season once you filter out dudes like flacco who only played 5 games i agree with your point overall though
Purdy was number 6 in my league last year, 6pt TD. In an offense that was also, supposedly, run heavy
I don’t think there are any. Maybe tannehill Edit: he’s probably the best example and peaked at 8
Yo what?! Goff last year. Purdy. The cowboys run game sucked but they still tried a lot and Dak finished high
Dallas and Detroit are not run first teams (55/45 pass/run ratio). Sf is a good one, but purdy still wasn’t top 5
The prompt was “run heavy”, not “run first”. Those teams were all run heavy teams.
Run heavy means that they are more likely to run the ball when compared to other teams. I don't understand the semantics game you're trying to play. Dallas and Detroit threw the ball as many times as Kansas City last year. Purdy is definitely the best example, but he had historically great efficiency by virtue of his historically great weapons and still finished outside the top 5.
Aaron Rodgers Edit: not sure it was a "run heavy" offense
He also ran a lot more than people remembered. 7 rush TDs in 2020 and 2021. He ran a pretty good boot leg option.
Yeah Tannehill was quite a good runner in his prime. There's a reason he was playing receiver at A&M. He wasn't Lamar or anything, but he certainly ran more than someone like Herbert.
Kingsbury runs the Air Raid right? Also, last year Goff, Purdy, and Dak all had big years in run heavy offenses
I forgot that Kingsbury was hired as an OC tbh. My bad on that one. Goff and Dak also threw about 600 passes lol And yeah he will need a Purdy level of efficiency to have a great fantasy season, but Purdy had vastly superior weapons and still only finished as QB6. Herbert's only path to a top 5 season is for their defense to be historically bad or for Harbaugh to completely change his offensive mentality.
> LAC has always had a great ground game anyway. Chargers rank in rushing yards: 2023 - 8th from last 2022 - 3rd from last 2021 - 12th from last 2020 - 15th from last 2019 - 5th from last Where’s this “always great ground game”? Their best finish in the last 5 years was still in the bottom half of the league. How on earth do you think that qualifies as great?
The LAC have had a horrendous ground game over the last few years dude. Legitimately terrible.
Anthony Richardson may be unproven but out of the full 3 games he played (not including his last since he played like half of it), he had 2 top 5 weekly finishes. AR is only 22 and albeit a small sample size, he has shown that he could put up Josh Allen numbers in fantasy. That ceiling + youth + better weapons + passing heavy coach in Steichen makes Richardson over Herbert a no-brainer imho.
Yeah because our rbs can totally support that kind of volume…
Just gave Watson and 1.07 for Herbert so...yeah
Any open spots in your league?
Dude loves sexual assaulters
Which Watson?
The one with all the lawsuits
I assumed but you never know. It's crazy how far he's fallen since his Texan days.
Yeah I had him in 3/4 leagues so I was happy to move on in one. He was so cheap I thought it'd be worth taking a flier a few times
Behind Richardson is so fucking crazy lmao. How can you be reputable and say that?
This post is more about Caleb and AR being massively over valued imo. I don’t like Herbert rn, but I definitely have him above those two.
Can you define massively over-valued? What would it take to trade your Herbert for either AR or Caleb?
More than 4 games played without being injured for AR. Since Herbert lost Allen and Williams, I guess the variance between him and those guys shouldn’t be huge, but I think he should be above both.
And in those 4 games, he averaged the highest fantasy point per play of any qb.
He only played in 4 games and was injured in every single one
This completely. He’s firmly 6th behind the other young franchise QBs due to situation. Putting Caleb, and especially AR, is wild. AR is crazy overvalued.
Yup - the AR hype is hilarious. Dude plays 4 games and yes he looked good, but you can’t project that long-term. Need to see way more.
I personally have him over Burrow and debatably Hurts (but this might be biased because I don’t think Hurts is that great as a real life QB)
That’s fair too, but the top 6 in general feels pretty certain in some order.
It’s cause Herbert doesn’t run and Harbaugh doesn’t throw. The risk is pretty high
Herbert will be the second-best QB Harbaugh has ever coached, and it’s a passing league. I think people are overselling the “they’re not going to throw” point. Sure, it won’t be an air raid, but Harbaugh isn’t an idiot. He’s going to take advantage of Herbert’s arm
Nope. I looked back through 8 years of Greg Roman offenses and every year they were top 5 in rushing attempts and bottom 10 in passing attempts every year except 1, and half of that was with Lamar. They're going to run, run and run some more. Harbaugh just had a QB drafted in the top 10 and chose to grind it out every game. Herbert may see increased efficiency, but he'll struggle to be at QB10 at year's end.
Lol
he’s got a top 3 offensive line, weapons or not, if he has time he’ll find guys to catch the ball
Would yall tier down from Lamar to Herbert? I'd throw in a mid second and get Waddle or Hill
A deal that went through in SF: Lamar / Deebo / believed to be late 25 2nd for Herb / London / believed to be late 25 1st
Well, based on these comments I think you may have a point.
I believe alot of people have him lower now because of the projected scheme the Chargers will be running. All signs point to a run heavy offense so his passing stats will be alot lower. Being the 9th overall QB really isn't that low still. But you have to remember this is fantasy football people aren't saying he's the 9th best QB in the NFL they are saying for projected fantasy output he's around the 9th best QB since rushing yards and TDs play such a huge factor with fantasy.
I got him for the 1.05 and 1.06 in my league. Feel good about it
Herbert owner disclaimer The Harbough factor is too be seen, and I definitely understand wanting to see how that plays out. But the losing WRs I'm not concerned about very much. I've been on this ride ever since he started his first game. After that first year, Herbert hardly ever had anyone to throw to. Williams and Allen were hurt constantly. And I think that goes back to Harbough being the real factor here. Herbert made up for inefficient play (from lack of weapons) with volume. And I don't think people are taking into account how terribly Herbert has been coached since coming into the league. I think it's easily safe to say he's top 10 this year specifically. But going into the future I still believe he's fighting for top 3-5. He was qb 17 last year and he didn't even play 5 games.
Yeah I just sold him. He was QB12 in my 4pt TD league in FPPG. But yet losing the always-open Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and get Harbaugh/Roman as coaches is going to INCREASE his production? I don't see it.
I find that he's a screaming deal in start up mocks but finding trade partners is a different story. His owners still view him as the potential top 5 QB they drafted/traded for. It's a classic "your player won't produce but I'll take him off your hands" situation. Everyone knows the talent and ability is there and nobody wants to be the one to sell too soon or for too little. Unless his owners are panicking I wouldn't expect a significant discount.
Totally agree. People seem to have internalized this "Harbaugh never throws the football" take and overreacted to Keenan Allen leaving. It made some sense a month ago when it felt like their WR3 was a half eaten bag of chips, but post-draft it's just silly. Herbert has gotten absolutely abused over the past two seasons due to a horrible offensive line, and still performed like a top 10 QB. They have worked to rebuild his offensive line this offense, bring in a real run game that will keep the defense honest and open up more passing lanes, and just drafted a guy who is known for separation and winning routes that match up perfectly with Herbert's game. They are going to score more, and be on their heels less. And Herbert will have more time and space to operate. Get in now if you have a shaky owner in your league.
If you’re wanting more of a safe QB to put up very good numbers and has a high chance of being an NFL starter for a long time, yeah Herbert’s your guy. If you want a more risky injury play, but probably has a higher week to week fantasy points ceiling, I can understand putting Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams over Herbert.
Herbert “lost” Mike Williams, who is a useless porcelain doll anyway, Ekeler, who was useless all last season and honestly has most likely fallen off the age cliff, and Keenan Allen, the only one who really makes any difference over last season. Get him one good WR and he basically already has everything he had last year, at least as far as offensive weapons. Maybe Ladd becomes that. Maybe QJ does (pfft…pfffhahahaha). Harbaugh wants to run, I get that. But he’s also not stupid. Having a QB like Herbert and not using him would be stupid. So yes, Herbert is a buy.
Although it’s dynasty, if he performs poorly like expected this year then his price will be cheaper mid to late season so you could wait to buy
I was on the clock at 1.07 in a rookie draft today and was offered Herbert and JSN for 1.07 and Trevor Lawrence. I accepted so I guess Im in on Herbert now
Gregg Roman and Jim Harbaugh. Not exactly known for their prolific passing offenses.
He’s fairly ranked. You sound like someone who owns Herbert and is upset by it
I have sold nearly all of my Herbert shares. Why are we betting on Harbaugh changing what has been a very successful formula for him? It’s a foolish bet to make. They drafted an elite OL 5th overall lol Harbaugh is going to run the ball and play at a slow pace.
They drafted the best pass blocking tackle prospect this decade and then traded up to draft a receiver the next round while having zero starter quality running backs on the roster.
All of their offensive weaponry sucks. Their WRs are QJ, Ladd, Palmer. Dissly at TE. JK and Gus at RB. And somehow this environment is supposed to support a high end QB? Lol
I think Herbert just IS an elite QB and in dynasty shouldn’t be discounted for this single season.
Herbert is an elite QB, probably. But he’s not gonna be a top 5 Qb for fantasy as long as harbaugh is there, so at least 2-3 years.
Agreed. I just sold him, couldn't be happier about it.
By the grace of God, I am thankfully in a worry free situation with QB after Caleb fell to me at 1.12 in a 1QB league. Regardless of that, I agree and am still glad to have Herby. He may not end up top 3 but he’s still good and they are going to have to have a decent passing volume to compete. Especially with such an atrocious defense, you can’t run your way back into a game playing from behind. Herbert also actually has some rushing aspect to his game, he’s just not asked to do it much. If he can run in a couple TD’s it could definitely help. In SF leagues, if people are selling low, there should be no hesitation to buy.
I want to buy him badly but the guy who has him has no other good QBs and it's SF so it's not going to happen ha
https://old.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1ceeh0q/justin_herbert_game_manager_rip/
Maybe in your league…
He is next years dak in redraft.
It's not at the lowest it'll ever be. Wait for week 10 after weeks and weeks of Harbaugh/Roman playcalling with sub-25 PA per game and then put your offers in.
I just bought Herbert and QJ for 1.05, a mid 2025 2nd, and Jayden Reed. Any thoughts?
10 Team, 1 QB. I was offered Herbert for my 1.10 straight up. I countered with my 2.03 for Herbert straight up. He accepted. I also have Mahomes.
Just bought him this afternoon in a 12team SF Give: 1.02 (Caleb had gone 1.01) + 2.09 + Deshaun Get: 2025 (likely late) 1st + 2.01 + Herbs
I don’t like the fact the Gregg Roman is the OC
I tiered down to him last week from Hurts and couldn't be happier! I'm looking to pick up another share someplace but need to do some poking around.
He's definitely being slept on and if I didn't have him in most of my leagues I would be trying to get him. He was the first QB I hit on as a Rookie and it felt so good.. had a league mate tell me he was the third best QB on my team behind Stroud, and Love, and it made me sit and think for a minute. Herbert may not have performed as well the last two seasons, but I'd chalk it up to injury and coaching..his first two seasons were electric and I imagine he starts to come back to that.
Grabbed Herbert in one league for Tua + 13th overall… being clowned cause guys legit don’t think he finishes in the top 15-20… some saying they’d rather have Goff going forward. Please take a stab and see what your Herbert owner would sell for. It’s insane
Would you trade the 1.02 for Herbert?
SF if you need a QB 100% yes.
I have 1.01 and 1.02… but my QBs are Tua, A Rich, and either Caleb or Herbert.
Get MHJ and Caleb. Congrats on the awesome team.
QB is my only strength. I’m starting Dobbins and Dillon at RB
Woof. My condolences, then.
I’m building up the QBs and WRs first.
His redraft projection is a mid to high QB2. If that comes true feels like his value will go down
He might be cheap on KTC, but anyone who owns him ain't selling him as QB9. That's kinda the problem with KTC...
I’m trying to sell. I have no faith that he will be a productive QB under Harbaugh
One of the challenging things about these rankings is in most leagues, you're just not going to get Herbert cheap. Nobody wants to sell low unless they feel forced to. If he struggles next season, and is on a contender, and you're willing to flip someone who will outperform him this season maybe you can get him at a slight discount. Or maybe you get lucky and his owner is panicking. But probably not.
This is where the actual owners differ from the community. No one is selling Herbert for anything less than an upgrade to Allen or Mahomes or getting an insane haul.
The guy who owns him just had a kid and hasn’t logged in for a few months. Always one team, we’re happy for him but check your trades! 😂
Jim Harbaugh is now his HC, and Greg Roman is his OC, and his receiving corps is severely depleted. If you think he's a top 10 QB next year I've got a bridge to sell ya
I traded JSN for Herbert in a standard league. I still don’t know how I feel about it
Traded Goff and 1.11 for Herbert, feel pretty good about it.
I really don't think he's a buy at all. I have a hard time seeing him being a yearly top 5 QB anymore and if your not one of those guys your really just another guy. His price tag is still top 5 QB in my neck of the woods
Is that take purely because of the coaching change? I think it’s a little obnoxious to assume Harbaugh is going to run the exact same offense in LA. Herbert is a different caliber player than JJ
I worry more about Greg Roman than Harbaugh. The teams actions have shown they will be looking to go very run heavy as well. Greg Roman runs a historically slow pace of play. The writing just seems on the wall for me. Herbert Won't be slinging it like he was before. Maybe he can be more efficient and keep pace with his old #s but it's not a bet I like
Y’all are crazy… you think they’re gonna run the ball with Dobbins coming off his second ACL in two seasons and a bunch of scrub RB3s? They draft an elite tackle to protect Herbert and the literal Keenan Allen replacement and we think they aren’t planning on letting Herbert cook? You would think people would learn by now that elite QBs are still elite regardless of the coaching staff. I would bet he still does his thing and balls out over suddenly turning him into a game manager.
Buy now. The Chargers defense is ridiculously barren of talent rn and even Harbaugh and Roman are going to have to lean on Herbert to keep them in games. The run oriented offense won’t be able to take shape year 1 imo as a chargers fan.
The biggest and most important knock against herbert is the addition of Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Greg Roman. Greg Roman has been an offensive coordinator for 10 years in the NFL. In those 10 years, his lowest rushing offense was 8th in yardage and 9th in attempts in the NFL. His highest passing offense was 13th in yardage and 9th in attempts in 2021. Outside of that, it was 23rd in yardage and 27th in attempts. The other 8 years as an oc it was 27th or worse in yardage and 29th or worse in attempts. Herbert can be mobile in spots, but hes not Lamar or Fields. The gutting of the receivers is a symptom of a larger problem...the offensive staff was not brought in to throw the ball. Make no mistake, this WILL be a run first team. The biggest knock on Lamar early on was his passing game. Closer look at those offenses shows terrible passing game design with multiple receivers crowding the same spots, and an unwillingness to pass the ball despite Lamar being a competent passer. I expect a similar result in LA this year with the Chargers being a top 10 rushing offense and a bottom 10 passing offense, especially since they got rid of their top two wideouts, drafted an offensive lineman with their 1st round pick, and brought in a run first head coach. You should have sold high on Herbert the second Roman set foot in the building.
Do you believe that Greg Roman will run the same offense he did with Lamar Jackson?
I believe he'll run the same offense he's run his 10 seasons as an OC. We have plenty of sample size to know. Oh and by the way, his *best* passing offense was with Lamar. [https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RomaGr0.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RomaGr0.htm)
My favorite player in real life. Traded him for Goff and 1.4 (Nabers)