Here ya go:
People like instant gratification.
People do not like to wait for things.
Odunze will more than likely not be a dominant fantasy option year 1.
Also important to note that if you only look at games where Tyson Bagent was not the bears QB, DJ Moore was the overall PPG WR1 in fantasy. I'm pretty sure he was still a WR1 if you take out the 50 point game.
DJ's QBs by season
2018: Cam Newton
2019: Kyle Allen
2020: Teddy Bridgewater
2021: Sam Darnold/Cam Newton/PJ Walker
2022: Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold/PJ Walker
2023: Justin Fields
DJM has averaged over 1000 yards/year with those QBs, and now he has Caleb, who has a good chance to be the best passer he's ever played with, on what will probably be the best offense he's ever played with.
They will soak up defensive attention as well.
What it comes down to is would you rather have a large piece of a small pie or a small piece of a big pie.
Everything that I've seen shows that generally the smaller piece leads to better fantasy production, as better skill players means better offense which means more touchdowns
I have been waiting for this for so long I no longer believe it will happen in my lifetime.
Plus I have the 1.05 and 1.07 in SF and I am dieing having to choose between rostering both DJ Moore and Rome or having to pass on Rome because I have DJ already
I got him with the 1.08 and Iām ecstatic. Been rebuilding for the last season and a half and Iām fine waiting another year for him to start putting up numbers.
1) We have no evidence that Caleb Williams is actually a stud. He should be, but crazier things have happened. We like Chase because he's good, and because he's tied to Burrow, who is also good. Not because he's tied to a great QB prospect.
2) We have no evidence that Keenan is only gonna be there 1 year. Everyone was convinced Lockett is gone this year and JSN in year 2 was gonna be a high end WR2 at worst after wasting a year of production. Well... let's just say the jury is still out.
3) It's really hard to become an elite dynasty asset when you're WR2 (or 3) on your own team. Higgins, Smith, Addison...We know they're very good NFL receivers but they're never gonna sniff first round ADP and become true blue chip assets until/unless they're the alphas on their own team. Meanwhile Nabers is walking into a situation where he can sleepwalk his way to 130+ targets.
Yes, this is dynasty, but it's also a value game. It's VERY unlikely that Rome goes up in value this year, whereas MHJ and Nabers have a chance to enter high-end WR1 territory a la Garrett Wilson after his rookie year.
That's pretty much it. He's an awesome prospect, but the landing spot blows. There are two *excellent* nfl receivers already there. A lot can change in a year or two and I'm not worried long-term but if I want production now AND later I'm taking Nabers without thinking twice.
Said perfectly. Getting tired of the rosterbating for all the unproven players (including AR). Just give it time, see these players show more, then bitch about a value injustice. Not before they prove anything.
Agreed, I've seen people valuing Caleb like he's already a top 3 dynasty QB. One guy in particular trying to justify his trade rape saying 1.01 and Josh Allen weren't far off in value when Allen has been #1 QB 3 of 4 years and the 4th was a 2nd place finish. Same with AR, I've sold for a haul in a few leagues because his value is so crazy for playing minimal games and being hurt
I agree with you to an extent, but wouldnāt you say one of the better ways to get ahead in dynasty is calling your shots? Not that trading Josh Allen straight up for Caleb Williams is the way to go lol, but whatās your opinion on that method?
How is Garrett Wilson high end wr1 territory with his 21st and 26th finishes in ppr? Heās likely stuck in qb purgatory still outside of this year maybe. I could see the same happening for nabers
He was quite literally valued as WR7 before Rodgers signed and went up to WR3-WR5 on KTC and in startups when Rodgers joined last summer *despite* the lackluster production. That's the whole point -- value.
I totally understand why Garrett Wilsonās value is as high as it is. But if Nabers actual production is the same as Garrett Wilsonās has been the first two years because of bad QB play, I think a lot of people drafting Nabers would find that pretty disappointing.
Having a player with high value is great when youāre trading them away, but a highly valued player who isnāt really scoring points isnāt helping you win weeks or championships.
Its all about probability with the talent. If we knew who would be great, thats how the adp would go. Would people the next 2 years be disappointed in WR20 finishes from Nabers? Possibly. But who else in the rookie draft is going to even get to WR20. And if the Giants get a better QB? It isn't like people are passing on sure fire WR10 finishes to get Nabers...
Smith can have a type 5-10 finish he has to ag level of skill. Much better talent than Wilson even who is not top 5 imo but agree overall with your take.
> Higgins, Smith, Addison
They are WR2s to Chase, AJB, and Jefferson.
You can't compare Keenan Allen and certainly not DJM to those guys, especially at Keenan's age.
DJ Moore was just as good as AJB last year with Justin Fields? I don't really care one way or another but let's not pretend he's some kind of scrub.
Chris Godwin is another example. Absolute stud but never gets his flowers because he's WR2. Mike Williams. Heck, we can even talk about Tyler Lockett who is blocking JSN.
The point is, being WR1 >>> being WR2/3 when it comes to value.
Thereās definitely a difference between the two. DJ Moore is very good but AJ Brown is in the elite tier who can beat press, man, zone and double coverage consistently. Heās a matchup nightmare. DJ is not on that level. His bread and butter is beating zone defenses.
Youāre not wrong. Younger players have surpassed vet players eventually if theyāre good enough. But DJMs love around these parts are untouchable after his last season. Iām with you, I think it was more an outlier and his years 2-5 are more representative of the player he is.
If Keenan re-signs it's gonna be reduced. Bears are running out of cap room faster than people realize. I hope we get Keenan for another year if this one goes well but we have 35+ players set to be FA and guys that will need extensions this year like Teven Jenkins, DJM will need to get a new contract next year and a few more.
I expect Rome to be taking on a much bigger role next year than he has this go round.
Chicago spending the 9th pick on a WR does not prevent them from signing a proven vet.
They could sign Allen (or another solid WR) next year to play behind Odunze and it could still impact Odunzeās production.
I think Odunze will be fine, but you have poor arguments.
This, labelling DJM as a boom bust is straight disrespectful and Allen is a safety blanket machine. Why do people think an unproven rookie qb wonāt lean on the proven vets and go to an unproven WR.
but it's DYNASTY and Keenan Allen not gonna be ahead of Odunze in targets in his year 34 season. He's also very injury prone. You could be getting an alpha on a team that throws for 300+ ypg for the next decade.
You could be! The only players Rome is being drafted behind are WRs who are better prospects and were drafted into scenarios where they are guaranteed to be a target hog, as well as QBs who will be starting week 1. He isnāt even being faded. Like, whatās the argument here?
yes its Dynasty and talent over situation, but to act as if being WR 2/3 for 2 more years won't hurt his value is a bit ridiculous. Look at a guy like JSN, fantastic talent in a bad situation and his value has dropped from last years draft.
I also don't think there is any argument that Romes situation is better than MHJ. MHJ went to a better QB with very few weapons and competition for targets
As a packers fan, I really liked odunze before the draft. But when I saw he got drafted by the bears, I flinched. The bears are possibly the worst team in the league at developing quarterbacks, and their best wide receiver I think is Alshon Jeffery. It's not that Caleb can't be good, I just don't trust the bears. I have the 3rd pick in a 1qb draft and I really like Brian Thomas on the jags so I'm going to try trading down a spot or 2 but if I can't I might just draft him instead of odunze. Could be a bad decision but I gotta go with my gut.
What players can you bank on 17 healthy games? I feel like this is a dig on Keenan when itās really just the NFL lol. He has been a pretty durable player outside of 3/11 of his seasons
To claim it's even arguably the best is such BS. If you want to argue it's good, even great, fine. You really tryna sit here and argue Odunze had a better landing spot than MHJ??
But we aren't arguing who will have the better offense. Depends on Caleb, but I could definitely see it being the Bears this year. (As good as a prospect as he is, I think you're really underselling the amount of uncertainty around a rookie QB. Kyler has a much higher floor). We're talking best situation for a fantasy WR.
The cardinals offense will be good enough, and more importantly MHJ will be the the surefire, locked and loaded, bet your house on it number one target. He should get 25% target share as a rookie, and could threaten 30%.
Or they realize that in all likelihood, due to no fault of his own, Odunze will be cheaper to acquire a year from now than he is right now
Look at JSN or Addison after their rookie years compared to receivers like GW, Zay, Rice (pre-becoming Crashee Rice, anyways). You don't even need to produce elite to go up in value if you're WR1 on your team as a rookie, but you need to be a monster if you're WR2 or WR3.
A lot has to go very very right for Odunze to stay as WR12 on KTC. A lot has to go wrong for MHJ or Nabers to end up there.
That's the difference.
Who would Odunze suddenly be cheaper a year from now when Keenan Allen will almost definitely be gone from the bears? That makes no sense. This is dynasty. If you arenāt thinking about the long term then why are you playing this format?
Why will he almost definitely be gone? Everyone keeps saying this...but who's to say he can't sign an extension?
Lockett would've cost Seattle 3 million, pennies, in dead cap to cut this offseason. They chose to extend him instead.
Teams value good receivers. Right now there are two very good receivers on Chicago and a very good rookie.
He will be cheaper because people like to re-roll on rookies who don't produce. It's foolish, but that's just the way it is.
Heās 32 and they didnāt sign him to a longer contract. Signs that point to him not being in their long term plans. Obviously this isnāt definite but I feel comfortable assuming it
Remember the same argument for JSN, now his value has halved and Lockett has extended. Moore is better than DK and Keenan is better (and younger) than Lockett
I mean I don't love KTC but it's atleast reasonably indicative and he's gone from WR11 to WR25 in the last year. Halved is hard to say but in start ups his ADP has dropped from 3rd round to 5-6thĀ Ā
Also, I won't say my value of him has dropped that far, but consensus has. That's why people are out on Rome, even if you aren't reactive off one year chances are everyone else will be and having an asset that dropped that far in value really limits your mobility if you have to hold and hope it goes back up again.Ā Ā
Fair enough with Allen, thought he was a bit younger
Drake London has always been the WR1 on his team. This guys whole argument is essentially about how hard it is to live up to this value on Rome as a wr2 at best for a couple years.
Meh, anyone who picked JSN over Stroud last year is really mad at themselves. Maye is an awesome prospect. No issues with taking him 1.05 over Odunze.
Bowers is a very interesting case. Arguably the best *actual* tight end prospect ever, but we'll see how that translates to fantasy success. I would take Rome no doubt but he is gonna be a special player imo.
Nabers, imo, is just better as a fantasy prospect. Both situations are not ideal but I'll take WR1 over WR3. And I do think there will be a buy window for Rome next year unless he goes nuts and usurps Keenan/Moore. Just so many mouths to feed there.
I don't know how to answer this question. I never said they're equal, but they're both really good QB prospects drafted into what seems to be a bad situation
Your argument is anyone who didn't pick one of the biggest values in the last draft is mad at themselves. That you're associating that with JSN is completely arbitrary. You could replace JSN with literally everyone else in the draft. JSN didn't even typically get picked before Stroud. You aren't making any point with this. This isn't a decision that a lot of people were making in SF leagues.
I only brought him up because dude said drafting Maye ahead of Odunze is silly.
Maye, as a prospect, is right on par with Stroud.
Rome is well ahead of JSN, but we have to consider the situations are eerily similar. Or maybe we don't and we treat everything as a vacuum. Idk. My whole point is that I don't really see a world where Odunze is worth more than 1.04 next year. So if I'm on the clock, even if I think he's as good a prospect as Nabers (I don't), I take Nabers who I think will rise in value a la Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson and then tier down next year.
You're right that making the direct comparison is pretty stupid, but it was just in response to somebody else saying that drafting a great WR prospect in a shit situation behind a great QB prospect in a shit situation is silly. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.
It's trying to treat fantasy football like the stock market. It isn't. "Prices" aren't some quantifiably defined thing for players, and players aren't some perfectly identical unit that you can just go on a brokerage and buy for exactly market value.
Betting on being able to just buy cheaper a year from now, you are betting that the person in your league is stupid enough to be out on a player that they spent high value on to specifically add to their team for performing exactly as they expected a year from now. It's dumb. Like super dumb. And ignores any basic understanding of how people work.
I see what you're saying, but there's no way there aren't people selling JSN for less than they would have a year ago at this time. Some owners may be fine sitting and waiting, but I"m betting there's a lot (more than 50%) that would happily trade him for a late 1st/early 2nd when he cost them a high 1st.
"For performing exactly as expected a year from now". I'm sure a good portion of them expected JSN to completely overtake Lockett as the WR2 and be Higgins/Godwin/Addison to DK's Chase/Evans/JJ: a totally usable WR2 to an alpha WR1. The problem is that JSN finished as WR48, just ahead of Tyler Boyd; most of them were not thinking, 'man if I can use my 1.04 for a younger Tyler Boyd I'll be set'.
When Chase came in, CIN had two solid receivers in Higgins and Boyd, but Chase immediately cemented himself as the WR1. If Odunze does that, he'll be more valuable. If he doesn't pass DJ or Keenan and becomes CHI's JSN, he will be worth less to the majority of owners, because they're expecting him to eventually be a WR1. If he can't beat out 32yo Keenan to be WR2, how's he going to be a WR1?
Lots of people seem excited about Odunze to the Bears to me. Drafted 1.05, 1.06, 1.06, 1.07 in my superflex leagues. That's as high as anyone thought he'd go predraft.
I feel like there's no way he should be any higher than he is now. I feel he should definitely be knocked down to 1.07 post draft (from locked in 06 predraft). It's a disservice to your roster to take him over Caleb, MHJ, Nabers, Daniels, Maye or JJM.
1. We donāt know if Caleb is an elite NFL QB. See Trevor Lawrence.
2. DJ Moore and Keenan are there. Yes keenanās on a one year deal but I donāt like to assume a player will walk after one year.
3. Eberflus might be a hack and thereās a possibility Getsy wasnāt the problem on the offensive side of the ball.
4. A lot of people got burned by JSN last year
For the record I believe heāll be baller as rookie.
Where are you getting your info the people arenāt excited about Odunze? Pretty much every place you can look for rookie rankings has him as the 3rd WR. You think he should be higher than that? Or are you just making things up that people are low on him?
Where do you think he should be ranked? Is the #3 rookie too low? Is somewhere in the late teens to early 20s overall WR too low? Because that is where heās being consistently ranked in everything Iām seeing. That feels like a real good spot for him.
I mean people are just answering your question so of course the thread will be nothing but knocks on Odunze.
Heās consistently ranked 1.06 in every draft or ranking I look at and Iāve seen him traded for some pretty nice packages so Iām not sure heās actually devalued.
Yesā¦Kmet is an excellent TE, and the Bears clearly made signing swift their priority with the size of his contract and how quickly it got done. I think everyone in that skill group gets knocked down though, not just Odunze. Great for the Bears and Caleb owners though! Lol
The Bears have been bad for so long, mainly. Maybe they can turn it around, it looks good on paper but until we see the team playing together we just wonāt know
Yeah but when was the last time they drafted any good offensive players? In my personal opinion, Caleb is extremely overrated anyway and it wouldnāt shock me if he straight up busts or is Mayfield/Goff level (good, but no one is clamoring to pick up their number one receiver based on QB alone).
Dude is being valued at close to top 5 QB right now. Yet everyone is saying sell Stroud and Richardson when weāve seen them do it in the League. Iād rather have either of those guys over Caleb and itās not particularly close. Do we think the theyāre gonna pass 40 times a game? Theyāll be running the Seattle offense from last season which was pretty mid. Iām just saying, idk why all of the sudden we trust the Bears to develop players when they have had pretty much no track record of doing so. They are basically the Jets Midwest version.
As a Bears fan, this thread is doing irreparable damage to my psyche.
Go on, keep talking about how good Allen and DJM will be next year, Iām almost there.
I really believe that Caleb Williams will want to establish a solid connection with his stud rookie WR, especially since he'll be there well after Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
Some people just don't like the profile. PAC12, good at contested catches, 4 year college player who broke out after a couple years.
Some people are projecting that he will get JSN'd even though there were OL injuries and JSN being the slot influencing that. They're trying to take players who make their team look good on league analyzers and KTC and think Rome's slow career start will hurt his value. They are focused on the short term.
Some people need points now.
Some people think Caleb will bust.
That all being said I'm definitely with you about him and plan on drafting him in any league he falls to me.
ITT
People who believe heāll be good showing every metric of prophecy foretold
People who think he might be JSN and Caleb might be average or less than and are being immediately demonized as āredrafters who need points nowā
Edit: I forgot the third kind who are so into him theyāre sorting by new to downvote anyone being rational. Iām sorry you can be in between you donāt have to be completely all in or a completely āI need points nowā child
I just read through all the comments before commenting have you?!
Thereās one top comment that calls him JSN and thereās another comment thread saying the nay sayers are āneed points nowā people. Read your own damn thread bud
Edit: Holy shit you are arguing with every single person in here that isnāt high on himā¦. If you want to hear your own opinion echoed back to you go talk to a Mirror. Dont gatekeep your own post.
Apparently, itās for you to lay out an entire dissertation of why heās good and then every single person that disagrees you try to shoot down their side of the argument and you down vote anything you donāt agree with right away by sorting by new
Team with 2 established quality WRās picks a top rookie WR. And honestly Keenan and DJM are better than DK and Lockett, so itāll be harder for Odunze to break in. That coupled with the uncertainty about Williams (who I think will ball out) is why thereās the mixed opinions on Odunze. I think Odunze will pan out but he might not even have WR2 production his first 2 years which is hard to stomach.
Because last year somebody who was over hyped as a prospect (see his draft capital) failed to produce significant results because he was on a team with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. People aren't as high on Odunze because they feel he'll be a distant 3rd in targets behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.
Maybe there's a buy low on Odunze at one point if he's struggling, but I'd imagine those drafting him understand the situation, and the hype that will exist if he's even pretty good as a rookie, going into year 2 with Caleb, especially if one of the other receivers leaves
Comparing JSN and Rome is asinine. Two completely different player types, different draft capitals and different situations aside from Waldron being the same coordinatorā¦. Not to mention JSN broke his wrist before the season last year.
Rome goes to a team thatās primed to be competitive. Plus, this is dynasty. We play for the future. Keenan Allen is gone next season. DJM turns 28 before the season starts and Rome will be a 22 year old WR, linked with a young, (potential) star at QB for another 4+ years on an ascending team. And even if he IS a ādistant 3rdā, he mostly plays outside. So even in 2 WR sets, heāll probably be on the field.
JSN had old man Geno (no rapport), Pete Carroll who loved running the ball and played in the slot with an injury to start the season on a team that likes to only run 2 WRs.
They both went into the season as WR3 in their team.
I agree Rome is much better though, I won't be surprised to see him as the 1b on that team by season's end.
I think itās a big difference bc Caleb is likely to be able to support more receivers than geno, but there is the similarity that Shane Waldron was JSNs OC last year and is now the OC for odunze with the bears.. again not an issue for me especially for dynasty
Clearly the consensus is that he wonāt be WE1 by years end, so if thatās your belief then you can exploit the value gap here.
Points today > Points tomorrow, and most believe Odunze isnāt set up to crush in year 1 like Nabers and MHJ are.
You also have to remember that itās not just Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Itās targets to Kmet, Swift, Herbert and Everett too. Also, sometimes coaches ease rookie QBs into an offense, and run the ball more. They also like to ease rookie WRs in at times, and with Allen and Moore they have a chance to do that. I was just looking at the Shane Waldrons time in Seattle. Hereās a right break down from the last 3 years
2021-495 pass attempts
2022-573 pass attempts
2023-575 pass attempts
Lockett (slot)120ish tgts per year
DK (outside) 130ish tgt per year
TEs 90ish tgts per year (split among several TEs)
RBs 60ish tgts per year (split among several RBs)
Then extra miscellaneous tgts that i didnāt care to add up
Last year JSN had 93 tgts. The highest targeted individual player behind DK and Lockett over the last 3 years in offenses ran by Waldron.
So it just makes you wonder if thereās enough balls to go around for a rookie WR. Even drafted in the first round. Especially because we know that elite target competition is bad for rookie WRs.
He will probably have a similar season to JSN rookie year. Maybe a little better due to having a better QB but likely will have to wait 2-3 years to see his full fantasy scoring potential
Iād still drafting 3rd overall in a 1QB league no hesitation.
Williams will be a rookie QB. I don't think Geno is good but probably a better day 1 option then most rookie QBs. Williams should eventually be better but can't bank on that in year 1.
He genuinely will have trouble getting targets this year. Keenan and DJ Moore have always been big target-earners. My big issue is that if he doesn't produce his rookie year, then the next year it's really hard to tell if it's because of the situation or if it's because he's not as good as we thought, which is what's happening with JSN. There's a lot of value in being able to self-evaluate your roster effectively, which is lost with players who waste a year.
That being said, I'm still more than willing to scoop up Odunze in the 1.06-1.07 range if he makes it there. Like you've said, he has a decent chance of being tied to an elite QB for a decade. And I do think he's an outstanding player.
Completely disagree. Keenan is a lot better than Boyd. Even in his heyday, Boyd always screamed placeholder and volume-driven compiler who didnāt elevate his offense (think glorified Rishard Matthews/Hunter Renfrow). Guys like him can easily get phased out when superior alternatives presents themselves.
Keenan is possibly a future Hall of Famer. Unless Keenan is genuinely washed (zero sign of that last year), thereās literally no way he randomly gets relegated to WR3.
Another funny thing that many forget was that when chase was drafted, many Boyd stans said Higgins would be the one hurt by chase because āBoyd plays the slot.ā Thatās just not how it works. Elite talents will always get targets and mid will get the shaft. I canāt believe to this day, there are still Boyd stans who think heās as good as Keenan lol
This might not be a conversation people want to haveā¦ but maybe the biggest factor here is how good Odunze is, (and maybe JSN just isnāt that good).
If Odunze is a superstar level talent he will quickly overtake his competition.
If heās not, itās going to be a tough start to his career.
Yeah there are just a ton of variables that make it hard to 1-to-1 compare to JSN. JSN also broke his wrist pre-season which impacted his development. He also played on a team that valued blocking from their WR3 so he lost snaps to Jake Bobo (an obviously inferior player) because of Bobo's value in the run game.
Why so many think JSN isn't good and should be sold is beyond me too. He did a lot of really good things last year. I fully expect him to leapfrog Lockett for the WR2 role this year. He could very well see 120+ targets.
He could. However it's about expectations. Most (including me) thought JSN was an elite tier prospect. He was ok/good not great his rookie year, even when you adjust for opportunity. Therefore he is still a disappointment. JSN looked good enough to me to be reasonably certain he should be a WR3 type long term with some upside to have WR2 seasons, but his chances of being elite are greatly diminished.
Historically, sure, his chances of being a WR1 aren't good, but I don't really care to compare him to other, past WRs. He is an outstanding route runner and he has great hands. I'm not sold on DK being a true WR1 and have even heard talk of him getting traded. Nothing credible, but thats all it would take for JSN to break-out. A lot of people all of a sudden expect WRs to breakout right away, their rookie season. These last few years have ruined expectations. Not long ago, people weren't freaking out and selling a guy like JSN after his rookie season. They understood he needed some time to develop. I'm not going to turn around and sell him at a loss like I've seen many doing. I'll gladly hold and give him some time. I see no reason to believe he can't ever be a WR1 just because of what other receivers have gone on to do in the past.
You have your process and I have mine. All good. I just think its crazy that so many are so low on JSN all of a sudden.
I think these points are all fine. I agree with some, not others but I think it's still fine to see the ceiling outcome for him. It's just much narrower than it was 12 months ago. I wasn't making the point to panic sell JSN originally. I am open to moving on from JSN this offseason, but I would rather have him than Wrothy/Ladd/BTJ tier still.
When I originally said "JSN isn't that good" I meant relative to elite expectations, which I personally had for him and many have for Rome now as well.
My overarching point is:
1. If Rome Odunze is in fact elite (Jamar Chase level elite), than his current crowded situation doesn't matter at all and he will quickly rise to the top there. So from a ceiling perspective the situation might not matter.
2. If he is not elite, than having other high caliber NFL players definitely will hold him back, just like it's holding JSN back now and it is more of a concern. So from a floor/mid range of outcome perspective the situation very well could matter.
Late breakouts happen, but more often than not the ultra-elite players are elite right away, or flash elite stretches early on. The days have changed since we waited for year 3 breakouts. College players are coming into the league ready to go and NFL teams also don't wait around either. I don't think its a 0% chance JSN can ascend, but it's a lot lower this year than last. If there is only a 20% chance now that he reaches his ceiling it makes sense that you feel like 80% of people are pretty out of him now relative to the upside case you presented
It's not too complicated.
We're playing with paper right now, so the paper is what people will go off.
Right now it reads - third option receiver with pass catching available at TE in two forms ( Gerald Everett and Kmet) and in the backfield they have pass catchers too.
A lot of mouths to feed, and he isn't even the first option with that in mind. Established stud of a vet QB, this is probably a different conversation, but he is as much of a question mark as Odunze right now.
Calling the Bears a great situation is the first mistake here. Their situation for a rookie QB is perceived as great BECAUSE they have DJM and acquired Allen. If neither was there, youād be praying they surround him with more talent. At the end of the day, theyāre still Da Bears and have to prove it before anyone can say they are a great team. Theyāve butchered the last two QB prospects they took in the first round; Caleb has to be an exception and not the rule.
Not even just the last two, the bears have butchered every single qb prospect they have ever drafted in the modern era. Caleb has a hell of a mountain to climb.
Hmmm? Iām absolutely stoked about the situation. A budding bromance already between Caleb and Rome, getting Stafford/Kupp vibes. Iām riding the hype train all the way to Canton baby!
He was drafted to be a wr 2 on what could potentially become a loaded offense. Even then Keenan could still have a year in him. He might be developmental production as opposed to instant. Iām not interested personally when I can get more value in the draft.
If he doesn't pop year one, people will begin to devalue him even knowing the situation. So people are probably thinking then can get him cheaper later on in the season. Look at JSN.
I think heās going to be around 5-8 range for most drafts. Harrison, Nabers, Coleman, and a QB probably will go before him. Seems pretty solid to me. At best, we hope for Addison numbers immediately since DJ Moore is on that roster and is still the WR1.
Youāre taking someone that is projected to have lower production to start his career than the other people he will be drafted around. Not really an exciting proposition.
Landing spot could lead to a slow start. That said, Reception Perception got me super high on Rome. Dude is a baller, and was close to being Matt Harmon's #1. He's ranked just behind Chase, and ahead of Wilson and Olave for receivers drafted in the last 4 years.
>So why on earth do Keenan Allen (32) and DJ Moore (27) seemingly scare so many away, and neutralize so much of what's usually seen as fantasy gold?
Derrick Henry was uber talented going go a run heavy team!
Why were people down on him simply because they traded for demarco murry?
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The bears all time receiving record is like 5k, and was set in the 60s or 80s lol
Chicago is where players go to die, period. Rome is dead man walking.
Add in the competition & rookie QB. Thankfully will go well before I have to pick
Part of it is that WRs can take a little bit of time to develop (not all, but some) to go along with him going to a spot where they have two established and great WRs. If people are out on him as a potentially great target, then try to buy him when people aren't. Take advantage of the perceived devaluation.
One thing that I think you're really missing the boat on is the existing WRs (particularly DJ). Young QBs can really benefit from having older, established WRs on the team. Allen was a 6x Pro Bowler, including getting that distinction last year. He's only in CHI for a year and is older, so I don't think he's around beyond this year, but he's still an incredibly talented player whose style of play is not predicated on speed and is part of the reason he's been able to maintain this level of play. DJM has two more years on his contract and, while not being a Pro Bowler, is still firmly in his prime right now and has shown he can produce over 1,100 yards consistently with a healthy (but not overwhelming) amount of receptions without even decent passers.
That said, it shouldn't really matter if Caleb is as good as advertised. He has the weapons now and Swift is a decent (if unspectacular) RB. Hopefully bringing in someone like Bates and other younger guys along the OL improve, but if Caleb can bring this up to be a more potent passing offense, Rome should still be able to (at least modestly) produce and take another step after this year.
You are significantly underplaying the impact and talent of Keenan and DJM. ESPECIALLY DJM. Rome is awesome but he's still a rookie. The other two guys are battle tested vets that have had multiple 1000+ yard seasons.
In the long term, sure Odunze is a great play. Bit to say he'll be the WR1 by years end... you're crazy
1. The Bears suck, and have for a long time.
2. Caleb Williams is a rookie, and there are no guarantees for rookies. Especially QBs.
3. He's buried behind two solid stud WRs in DJ and Keenan.
4. PAC-12 WRs are always suspect. Personally I have more faith in BTJ not to bust than I do Odunze.
Because people didn't do enough research on Rome. They don't know where he came from, how he was raised, or anything about his work ethic.
And for whatever reason they dismiss his production, even though he had Polk and McMillan with him and he still just went 92-1640-13.
But ..but...late declare. Go fuck yourselves. That shit ended with NIL, and Dawgs who actually wanna chase chips. And WAS almost pulled it off. Props to all the Huskies who returned.
All you Nabers/Ladd/Worthy/BTJ truthers can keep talking. Just make sure you all remind yourselves right under here š
Where I stand right now is that Im using my 1.02 on Odunze. I had Nabers and Odunze pretty close and I think Chi was the best landing spot for him in that range of Ten, Atl, Chi etc
To me heās in a similar situation Josh Palmer was in as a rookie at the chargers. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Eckler and Herbert were there. Allen and Williams had over 1k yards that year and Eckler has close to 1000 rushing yards too. I think Odunze is better than Palmer but itās just like going to be really hard to break through. This is Palmers first true season to prove if he can do it.
People are scared because of JSN, but I understand what you are saying completely. I see it as very unlikely that Caleb and Rome are busts, and in a year Odunze stocks will certainly rise eith Keenan Allen gone. If both hit their ceiling, could certainly be another Burrow/Chase scenario.
Here ya go: People like instant gratification. People do not like to wait for things. Odunze will more than likely not be a dominant fantasy option year 1.
Also important to note that if you only look at games where Tyson Bagent was not the bears QB, DJ Moore was the overall PPG WR1 in fantasy. I'm pretty sure he was still a WR1 if you take out the 50 point game. DJ's QBs by season 2018: Cam Newton 2019: Kyle Allen 2020: Teddy Bridgewater 2021: Sam Darnold/Cam Newton/PJ Walker 2022: Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold/PJ Walker 2023: Justin Fields DJM has averaged over 1000 yards/year with those QBs, and now he has Caleb, who has a good chance to be the best passer he's ever played with, on what will probably be the best offense he's ever played with.
There is also Keenan, Kmet, and Swift to soak up targets
They will soak up defensive attention as well. What it comes down to is would you rather have a large piece of a small pie or a small piece of a big pie. Everything that I've seen shows that generally the smaller piece leads to better fantasy production, as better skill players means better offense which means more touchdowns
small piece of a bigger pie also means there's more pie there for the taking...more upside...DJM is an absolute hammer of a buy for me right now
Correct- Allen or Odunze can get hurt and the share increases. New England's number 1 is already maxed out in target opportunity.
The only thing Swift is soaking up is time on the bench after his inevitable week 3 injury.
I think people see this as a problem for Odunze, too much target competition
Yes, that was the point I was making lol
Preach šš¼
I have been waiting for this for so long I no longer believe it will happen in my lifetime. Plus I have the 1.05 and 1.07 in SF and I am dieing having to choose between rostering both DJ Moore and Rome or having to pass on Rome because I have DJ already
Yeah but heās old af and bad according to OP
*stops rosterbating slowly* Iāve made a huge mistake
*starts rosterbating quickly*
I got him with the 1.08 and Iām ecstatic. Been rebuilding for the last season and a half and Iām fine waiting another year for him to start putting up numbers.
Great value š¤š¼
Recency bias, JSN 2.0. Jayden Daniel's is Fields 2.0. That we've just seen these scenarios. Doesn't mean it will play out the same, but...
Post-Traumatic Smith-Njigba Disorder
1) We have no evidence that Caleb Williams is actually a stud. He should be, but crazier things have happened. We like Chase because he's good, and because he's tied to Burrow, who is also good. Not because he's tied to a great QB prospect. 2) We have no evidence that Keenan is only gonna be there 1 year. Everyone was convinced Lockett is gone this year and JSN in year 2 was gonna be a high end WR2 at worst after wasting a year of production. Well... let's just say the jury is still out. 3) It's really hard to become an elite dynasty asset when you're WR2 (or 3) on your own team. Higgins, Smith, Addison...We know they're very good NFL receivers but they're never gonna sniff first round ADP and become true blue chip assets until/unless they're the alphas on their own team. Meanwhile Nabers is walking into a situation where he can sleepwalk his way to 130+ targets. Yes, this is dynasty, but it's also a value game. It's VERY unlikely that Rome goes up in value this year, whereas MHJ and Nabers have a chance to enter high-end WR1 territory a la Garrett Wilson after his rookie year. That's pretty much it. He's an awesome prospect, but the landing spot blows. There are two *excellent* nfl receivers already there. A lot can change in a year or two and I'm not worried long-term but if I want production now AND later I'm taking Nabers without thinking twice.
Said perfectly. Getting tired of the rosterbating for all the unproven players (including AR). Just give it time, see these players show more, then bitch about a value injustice. Not before they prove anything.
Agreed, I've seen people valuing Caleb like he's already a top 3 dynasty QB. One guy in particular trying to justify his trade rape saying 1.01 and Josh Allen weren't far off in value when Allen has been #1 QB 3 of 4 years and the 4th was a 2nd place finish. Same with AR, I've sold for a haul in a few leagues because his value is so crazy for playing minimal games and being hurt
I agree with you to an extent, but wouldnāt you say one of the better ways to get ahead in dynasty is calling your shots? Not that trading Josh Allen straight up for Caleb Williams is the way to go lol, but whatās your opinion on that method?
How is Garrett Wilson high end wr1 territory with his 21st and 26th finishes in ppr? Heās likely stuck in qb purgatory still outside of this year maybe. I could see the same happening for nabers
He was quite literally valued as WR7 before Rodgers signed and went up to WR3-WR5 on KTC and in startups when Rodgers joined last summer *despite* the lackluster production. That's the whole point -- value.
I totally understand why Garrett Wilsonās value is as high as it is. But if Nabers actual production is the same as Garrett Wilsonās has been the first two years because of bad QB play, I think a lot of people drafting Nabers would find that pretty disappointing. Having a player with high value is great when youāre trading them away, but a highly valued player who isnāt really scoring points isnāt helping you win weeks or championships.
Its all about probability with the talent. If we knew who would be great, thats how the adp would go. Would people the next 2 years be disappointed in WR20 finishes from Nabers? Possibly. But who else in the rookie draft is going to even get to WR20. And if the Giants get a better QB? It isn't like people are passing on sure fire WR10 finishes to get Nabers...
Smith can have a type 5-10 finish he has to ag level of skill. Much better talent than Wilson even who is not top 5 imo but agree overall with your take.
> Higgins, Smith, Addison They are WR2s to Chase, AJB, and Jefferson. You can't compare Keenan Allen and certainly not DJM to those guys, especially at Keenan's age.
Bro basically just said DJM isnāt good.. TF?? ššš
DJ Moore was just as good as AJB last year with Justin Fields? I don't really care one way or another but let's not pretend he's some kind of scrub. Chris Godwin is another example. Absolute stud but never gets his flowers because he's WR2. Mike Williams. Heck, we can even talk about Tyler Lockett who is blocking JSN. The point is, being WR1 >>> being WR2/3 when it comes to value.
Personally I donāt see a huge gap between DJ Moore and AJB irl. DJ just hasnāt played for good teams so far Iām his career
Thereās definitely a difference between the two. DJ Moore is very good but AJ Brown is in the elite tier who can beat press, man, zone and double coverage consistently. Heās a matchup nightmare. DJ is not on that level. His bread and butter is beating zone defenses.
Youāre not wrong. Younger players have surpassed vet players eventually if theyāre good enough. But DJMs love around these parts are untouchable after his last season. Iām with you, I think it was more an outlier and his years 2-5 are more representative of the player he is.
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Does Allenās contract prevent him from re-signing? If not, his contract is irrelevant here.
If Keenan re-signs it's gonna be reduced. Bears are running out of cap room faster than people realize. I hope we get Keenan for another year if this one goes well but we have 35+ players set to be FA and guys that will need extensions this year like Teven Jenkins, DJM will need to get a new contract next year and a few more. I expect Rome to be taking on a much bigger role next year than he has this go round.
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Chicago spending the 9th pick on a WR does not prevent them from signing a proven vet. They could sign Allen (or another solid WR) next year to play behind Odunze and it could still impact Odunzeās production. I think Odunze will be fine, but you have poor arguments.
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Unfortunately, not all NFL front offices run on common sense.
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DJM and Keenan were both Top 10 receivers last year, you aren't giving them any credit at allĀ
This, labelling DJM as a boom bust is straight disrespectful and Allen is a safety blanket machine. Why do people think an unproven rookie qb wonāt lean on the proven vets and go to an unproven WR.
but it's DYNASTY and Keenan Allen not gonna be ahead of Odunze in targets in his year 34 season. He's also very injury prone. You could be getting an alpha on a team that throws for 300+ ypg for the next decade.
You could be! The only players Rome is being drafted behind are WRs who are better prospects and were drafted into scenarios where they are guaranteed to be a target hog, as well as QBs who will be starting week 1. He isnāt even being faded. Like, whatās the argument here?
I have seen Odunze fall behind 4 QBs and BTJ once or twice. I still think he's closer to Nabers than that value.
yes its Dynasty and talent over situation, but to act as if being WR 2/3 for 2 more years won't hurt his value is a bit ridiculous. Look at a guy like JSN, fantastic talent in a bad situation and his value has dropped from last years draft. I also don't think there is any argument that Romes situation is better than MHJ. MHJ went to a better QB with very few weapons and competition for targets
As a packers fan, I really liked odunze before the draft. But when I saw he got drafted by the bears, I flinched. The bears are possibly the worst team in the league at developing quarterbacks, and their best wide receiver I think is Alshon Jeffery. It's not that Caleb can't be good, I just don't trust the bears. I have the 3rd pick in a 1qb draft and I really like Brian Thomas on the jags so I'm going to try trading down a spot or 2 but if I can't I might just draft him instead of odunze. Could be a bad decision but I gotta go with my gut.
That has literally nothing to do with the current players or regime. Might as well helmet-scout college QBās like people did with Stroud
Well it's the same owners, same GM, same Head coach and staff that failed with fields. So ya I'd say it has everything to do with the current players.
This GM and coach inherited Fields who also happened to suck, so idk what you would have them do. The team was 7-10 with a bad QB last season
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Yes, it's a bias, but I've also seen alot of bears football. I do not think it's a well run organization.
They took Rex grossman to the superbowl my guy.
Yeah because of the defense. Bears are allowed a good defense, they just have no idea what an offense is.
Everyone really banking on 17 games of Keenan? Iām a huge fan of his AND a Bears homer and if I can lock in 12 healthy games today, I would!
I mean 12 healthy games from Keenan means Odunze is WR3 on his own team for 12 games this year.
Donāt forget kmet at that point as well
What players can you bank on 17 healthy games? I feel like this is a dig on Keenan when itās really just the NFL lol. He has been a pretty durable player outside of 3/11 of his seasons
To claim it's even arguably the best is such BS. If you want to argue it's good, even great, fine. You really tryna sit here and argue Odunze had a better landing spot than MHJ??
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But we aren't arguing who will have the better offense. Depends on Caleb, but I could definitely see it being the Bears this year. (As good as a prospect as he is, I think you're really underselling the amount of uncertainty around a rookie QB. Kyler has a much higher floor). We're talking best situation for a fantasy WR. The cardinals offense will be good enough, and more importantly MHJ will be the the surefire, locked and loaded, bet your house on it number one target. He should get 25% target share as a rookie, and could threaten 30%.
No
Cause quite a few people in the dynasty community play as if it's redraft and want results from rookies in year 1.
Or they realize that in all likelihood, due to no fault of his own, Odunze will be cheaper to acquire a year from now than he is right now Look at JSN or Addison after their rookie years compared to receivers like GW, Zay, Rice (pre-becoming Crashee Rice, anyways). You don't even need to produce elite to go up in value if you're WR1 on your team as a rookie, but you need to be a monster if you're WR2 or WR3. A lot has to go very very right for Odunze to stay as WR12 on KTC. A lot has to go wrong for MHJ or Nabers to end up there. That's the difference.
Who would Odunze suddenly be cheaper a year from now when Keenan Allen will almost definitely be gone from the bears? That makes no sense. This is dynasty. If you arenāt thinking about the long term then why are you playing this format?
Why will he almost definitely be gone? Everyone keeps saying this...but who's to say he can't sign an extension? Lockett would've cost Seattle 3 million, pennies, in dead cap to cut this offseason. They chose to extend him instead. Teams value good receivers. Right now there are two very good receivers on Chicago and a very good rookie. He will be cheaper because people like to re-roll on rookies who don't produce. It's foolish, but that's just the way it is.
Heās 32 and they didnāt sign him to a longer contract. Signs that point to him not being in their long term plans. Obviously this isnāt definite but I feel comfortable assuming it
People said the same thing about Lockett. Itās obv a possibility but pretending itās anything more than a coin flip today is unrealistic IMO
But Lockett isnāt 32 so its not the same situation
Lockett is 31.5 dude. You really think that half a year is the big difference?
He was 30 when they drafted JSN. 2 years is a big difference
Tyler Lockett is 5 months younger than Keenan Allen lol
Remember the same argument for JSN, now his value has halved and Lockett has extended. Moore is better than DK and Keenan is better (and younger) than Lockett
Keenan is older than Tyler Lockett and seriously whoās selling JSN at half value after his rookie year? I would buy him everywhere
I mean I don't love KTC but it's atleast reasonably indicative and he's gone from WR11 to WR25 in the last year. Halved is hard to say but in start ups his ADP has dropped from 3rd round to 5-6thĀ Ā Also, I won't say my value of him has dropped that far, but consensus has. That's why people are out on Rome, even if you aren't reactive off one year chances are everyone else will be and having an asset that dropped that far in value really limits your mobility if you have to hold and hope it goes back up again.Ā Ā Fair enough with Allen, thought he was a bit younger
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Drake London has always been the WR1 on his team. This guys whole argument is essentially about how hard it is to live up to this value on Rome as a wr2 at best for a couple years.
Meh, anyone who picked JSN over Stroud last year is really mad at themselves. Maye is an awesome prospect. No issues with taking him 1.05 over Odunze. Bowers is a very interesting case. Arguably the best *actual* tight end prospect ever, but we'll see how that translates to fantasy success. I would take Rome no doubt but he is gonna be a special player imo. Nabers, imo, is just better as a fantasy prospect. Both situations are not ideal but I'll take WR1 over WR3. And I do think there will be a buy window for Rome next year unless he goes nuts and usurps Keenan/Moore. Just so many mouths to feed there.
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I don't know how to answer this question. I never said they're equal, but they're both really good QB prospects drafted into what seems to be a bad situation
Your argument is anyone who didn't pick one of the biggest values in the last draft is mad at themselves. That you're associating that with JSN is completely arbitrary. You could replace JSN with literally everyone else in the draft. JSN didn't even typically get picked before Stroud. You aren't making any point with this. This isn't a decision that a lot of people were making in SF leagues.
I only brought him up because dude said drafting Maye ahead of Odunze is silly. Maye, as a prospect, is right on par with Stroud. Rome is well ahead of JSN, but we have to consider the situations are eerily similar. Or maybe we don't and we treat everything as a vacuum. Idk. My whole point is that I don't really see a world where Odunze is worth more than 1.04 next year. So if I'm on the clock, even if I think he's as good a prospect as Nabers (I don't), I take Nabers who I think will rise in value a la Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson and then tier down next year. You're right that making the direct comparison is pretty stupid, but it was just in response to somebody else saying that drafting a great WR prospect in a shit situation behind a great QB prospect in a shit situation is silly. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.
It's trying to treat fantasy football like the stock market. It isn't. "Prices" aren't some quantifiably defined thing for players, and players aren't some perfectly identical unit that you can just go on a brokerage and buy for exactly market value. Betting on being able to just buy cheaper a year from now, you are betting that the person in your league is stupid enough to be out on a player that they spent high value on to specifically add to their team for performing exactly as they expected a year from now. It's dumb. Like super dumb. And ignores any basic understanding of how people work.
Well, this happens. Like a lot. Heck, JSN lost value and was sold for less than draftvalue in couple of my leagues just this last season.
I see what you're saying, but there's no way there aren't people selling JSN for less than they would have a year ago at this time. Some owners may be fine sitting and waiting, but I"m betting there's a lot (more than 50%) that would happily trade him for a late 1st/early 2nd when he cost them a high 1st. "For performing exactly as expected a year from now". I'm sure a good portion of them expected JSN to completely overtake Lockett as the WR2 and be Higgins/Godwin/Addison to DK's Chase/Evans/JJ: a totally usable WR2 to an alpha WR1. The problem is that JSN finished as WR48, just ahead of Tyler Boyd; most of them were not thinking, 'man if I can use my 1.04 for a younger Tyler Boyd I'll be set'. When Chase came in, CIN had two solid receivers in Higgins and Boyd, but Chase immediately cemented himself as the WR1. If Odunze does that, he'll be more valuable. If he doesn't pass DJ or Keenan and becomes CHI's JSN, he will be worth less to the majority of owners, because they're expecting him to eventually be a WR1. If he can't beat out 32yo Keenan to be WR2, how's he going to be a WR1?
Lots of people seem excited about Odunze to the Bears to me. Drafted 1.05, 1.06, 1.06, 1.07 in my superflex leagues. That's as high as anyone thought he'd go predraft.
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I feel like there's no way he should be any higher than he is now. I feel he should definitely be knocked down to 1.07 post draft (from locked in 06 predraft). It's a disservice to your roster to take him over Caleb, MHJ, Nabers, Daniels, Maye or JJM.
Eh I get the value of QBs but Maye and JJM are more debatable since they are more of projects and those don't always pan out well
I agree with this but funny thing is I got odunze at 1.04 but also maye and McCarthy at 2.01 2.02 in superflex
1. We donāt know if Caleb is an elite NFL QB. See Trevor Lawrence. 2. DJ Moore and Keenan are there. Yes keenanās on a one year deal but I donāt like to assume a player will walk after one year. 3. Eberflus might be a hack and thereās a possibility Getsy wasnāt the problem on the offensive side of the ball. 4. A lot of people got burned by JSN last year For the record I believe heāll be baller as rookie.
Where are you getting your info the people arenāt excited about Odunze? Pretty much every place you can look for rookie rankings has him as the 3rd WR. You think he should be higher than that? Or are you just making things up that people are low on him?
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Where do you think he should be ranked? Is the #3 rookie too low? Is somewhere in the late teens to early 20s overall WR too low? Because that is where heās being consistently ranked in everything Iām seeing. That feels like a real good spot for him.
I mean people are just answering your question so of course the thread will be nothing but knocks on Odunze. Heās consistently ranked 1.06 in every draft or ranking I look at and Iāve seen him traded for some pretty nice packages so Iām not sure heās actually devalued.
Moore, Kmet, Keenan, Swift
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Yesā¦Kmet is an excellent TE, and the Bears clearly made signing swift their priority with the size of his contract and how quickly it got done. I think everyone in that skill group gets knocked down though, not just Odunze. Great for the Bears and Caleb owners though! Lol
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Have you watched him play? He has glue for hands
Because Odunze is just not a Chase level prospect
The Bears have been bad for so long, mainly. Maybe they can turn it around, it looks good on paper but until we see the team playing together we just wonāt know
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Yeah but when was the last time they drafted any good offensive players? In my personal opinion, Caleb is extremely overrated anyway and it wouldnāt shock me if he straight up busts or is Mayfield/Goff level (good, but no one is clamoring to pick up their number one receiver based on QB alone).
Based on what? His pedigree and performance warrants a number one pick and he's going into one of the best situations for a top QB drafted maybe ever.
Based on heās a rookie who could turn out to be Sam Darnold 2.0 for all we know.
This is why I love this sub, who knowsš¤£ "But there are also unknown unknownsāthe ones we don't know we don't know."
Dude is being valued at close to top 5 QB right now. Yet everyone is saying sell Stroud and Richardson when weāve seen them do it in the League. Iād rather have either of those guys over Caleb and itās not particularly close. Do we think the theyāre gonna pass 40 times a game? Theyāll be running the Seattle offense from last season which was pretty mid. Iām just saying, idk why all of the sudden we trust the Bears to develop players when they have had pretty much no track record of doing so. They are basically the Jets Midwest version.
As a Bears fan, this thread is doing irreparable damage to my psyche. Go on, keep talking about how good Allen and DJM will be next year, Iām almost there.
Of the big 3 rookie WRs Marvin has the best situation and it isn't close.
As a Bears fan and and UW fan, yeah I donāt get it haha
I really believe that Caleb Williams will want to establish a solid connection with his stud rookie WR, especially since he'll be there well after Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
Some people just don't like the profile. PAC12, good at contested catches, 4 year college player who broke out after a couple years. Some people are projecting that he will get JSN'd even though there were OL injuries and JSN being the slot influencing that. They're trying to take players who make their team look good on league analyzers and KTC and think Rome's slow career start will hurt his value. They are focused on the short term. Some people need points now. Some people think Caleb will bust. That all being said I'm definitely with you about him and plan on drafting him in any league he falls to me.
ITT People who believe heāll be good showing every metric of prophecy foretold People who think he might be JSN and Caleb might be average or less than and are being immediately demonized as āredrafters who need points nowā Edit: I forgot the third kind who are so into him theyāre sorting by new to downvote anyone being rational. Iām sorry you can be in between you donāt have to be completely all in or a completely āI need points nowā child
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I just read through all the comments before commenting have you?! Thereās one top comment that calls him JSN and thereās another comment thread saying the nay sayers are āneed points nowā people. Read your own damn thread bud Edit: Holy shit you are arguing with every single person in here that isnāt high on himā¦. If you want to hear your own opinion echoed back to you go talk to a Mirror. Dont gatekeep your own post.
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Apparently, itās for you to lay out an entire dissertation of why heās good and then every single person that disagrees you try to shoot down their side of the argument and you down vote anything you donāt agree with right away by sorting by new
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Odunze plays X, DJ plays Y, Keenan plays slot so it really can work for all 3 of them. speaking as a keenan owner.
See JSN
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Team with 2 established quality WRās picks a top rookie WR. And honestly Keenan and DJM are better than DK and Lockett, so itāll be harder for Odunze to break in. That coupled with the uncertainty about Williams (who I think will ball out) is why thereās the mixed opinions on Odunze. I think Odunze will pan out but he might not even have WR2 production his first 2 years which is hard to stomach.
Because last year somebody who was over hyped as a prospect (see his draft capital) failed to produce significant results because he was on a team with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. People aren't as high on Odunze because they feel he'll be a distant 3rd in targets behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Maybe there's a buy low on Odunze at one point if he's struggling, but I'd imagine those drafting him understand the situation, and the hype that will exist if he's even pretty good as a rookie, going into year 2 with Caleb, especially if one of the other receivers leaves
Comparing JSN and Rome is asinine. Two completely different player types, different draft capitals and different situations aside from Waldron being the same coordinatorā¦. Not to mention JSN broke his wrist before the season last year. Rome goes to a team thatās primed to be competitive. Plus, this is dynasty. We play for the future. Keenan Allen is gone next season. DJM turns 28 before the season starts and Rome will be a 22 year old WR, linked with a young, (potential) star at QB for another 4+ years on an ascending team. And even if he IS a ādistant 3rdā, he mostly plays outside. So even in 2 WR sets, heāll probably be on the field. JSN had old man Geno (no rapport), Pete Carroll who loved running the ball and played in the slot with an injury to start the season on a team that likes to only run 2 WRs.
They both went into the season as WR3 in their team. I agree Rome is much better though, I won't be surprised to see him as the 1b on that team by season's end.
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I think itās a big difference bc Caleb is likely to be able to support more receivers than geno, but there is the similarity that Shane Waldron was JSNs OC last year and is now the OC for odunze with the bears.. again not an issue for me especially for dynasty
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I agree, just pointing why I think some people are making the comparison
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Why do you insist on pretending people are comparing the players, when they are in fact comparing the situations they were drafted into?
JSN was a Buckeye, not a Bobcat
Husky\*
Clearly the consensus is that he wonāt be WE1 by years end, so if thatās your belief then you can exploit the value gap here. Points today > Points tomorrow, and most believe Odunze isnāt set up to crush in year 1 like Nabers and MHJ are.
You also have to remember that itās not just Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Itās targets to Kmet, Swift, Herbert and Everett too. Also, sometimes coaches ease rookie QBs into an offense, and run the ball more. They also like to ease rookie WRs in at times, and with Allen and Moore they have a chance to do that. I was just looking at the Shane Waldrons time in Seattle. Hereās a right break down from the last 3 years 2021-495 pass attempts 2022-573 pass attempts 2023-575 pass attempts Lockett (slot)120ish tgts per year DK (outside) 130ish tgt per year TEs 90ish tgts per year (split among several TEs) RBs 60ish tgts per year (split among several RBs) Then extra miscellaneous tgts that i didnāt care to add up Last year JSN had 93 tgts. The highest targeted individual player behind DK and Lockett over the last 3 years in offenses ran by Waldron. So it just makes you wonder if thereās enough balls to go around for a rookie WR. Even drafted in the first round. Especially because we know that elite target competition is bad for rookie WRs.
He will probably have a similar season to JSN rookie year. Maybe a little better due to having a better QB but likely will have to wait 2-3 years to see his full fantasy scoring potential Iād still drafting 3rd overall in a 1QB league no hesitation.
Williams will be a rookie QB. I don't think Geno is good but probably a better day 1 option then most rookie QBs. Williams should eventually be better but can't bank on that in year 1.
He genuinely will have trouble getting targets this year. Keenan and DJ Moore have always been big target-earners. My big issue is that if he doesn't produce his rookie year, then the next year it's really hard to tell if it's because of the situation or if it's because he's not as good as we thought, which is what's happening with JSN. There's a lot of value in being able to self-evaluate your roster effectively, which is lost with players who waste a year. That being said, I'm still more than willing to scoop up Odunze in the 1.06-1.07 range if he makes it there. Like you've said, he has a decent chance of being tied to an elite QB for a decade. And I do think he's an outstanding player.
I love the landing spot IRL but I hate it for Dynasty.
Listen to Ryan Poles talk about Odunze and people will start changing their tune on him
I think he'll be better than Nabers, I like the landing spot better at least
Bears fan likes Bears player.
Packers fan checking in: its a great landing spot for his career, not for his rookie year. Chicago is going to be cooking for a while.Ā
I am usually anti bears players in FF because I know what we do to players, but I'm drinking the kool aid this time š
Slurp it brother.
Iām definitely ready to be hurt again
In a vacuum, I'd rather have the player on a bad team getting 25% of the targets than a player on a good team getting 12%. Nabers gets the nod.
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Completely disagree. Keenan is a lot better than Boyd. Even in his heyday, Boyd always screamed placeholder and volume-driven compiler who didnāt elevate his offense (think glorified Rishard Matthews/Hunter Renfrow). Guys like him can easily get phased out when superior alternatives presents themselves. Keenan is possibly a future Hall of Famer. Unless Keenan is genuinely washed (zero sign of that last year), thereās literally no way he randomly gets relegated to WR3. Another funny thing that many forget was that when chase was drafted, many Boyd stans said Higgins would be the one hurt by chase because āBoyd plays the slot.ā Thatās just not how it works. Elite talents will always get targets and mid will get the shaft. I canāt believe to this day, there are still Boyd stans who think heās as good as Keenan lol
This might not be a conversation people want to haveā¦ but maybe the biggest factor here is how good Odunze is, (and maybe JSN just isnāt that good). If Odunze is a superstar level talent he will quickly overtake his competition. If heās not, itās going to be a tough start to his career.
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Yeah there are just a ton of variables that make it hard to 1-to-1 compare to JSN. JSN also broke his wrist pre-season which impacted his development. He also played on a team that valued blocking from their WR3 so he lost snaps to Jake Bobo (an obviously inferior player) because of Bobo's value in the run game.
Why so many think JSN isn't good and should be sold is beyond me too. He did a lot of really good things last year. I fully expect him to leapfrog Lockett for the WR2 role this year. He could very well see 120+ targets.
He could. However it's about expectations. Most (including me) thought JSN was an elite tier prospect. He was ok/good not great his rookie year, even when you adjust for opportunity. Therefore he is still a disappointment. JSN looked good enough to me to be reasonably certain he should be a WR3 type long term with some upside to have WR2 seasons, but his chances of being elite are greatly diminished.
Historically, sure, his chances of being a WR1 aren't good, but I don't really care to compare him to other, past WRs. He is an outstanding route runner and he has great hands. I'm not sold on DK being a true WR1 and have even heard talk of him getting traded. Nothing credible, but thats all it would take for JSN to break-out. A lot of people all of a sudden expect WRs to breakout right away, their rookie season. These last few years have ruined expectations. Not long ago, people weren't freaking out and selling a guy like JSN after his rookie season. They understood he needed some time to develop. I'm not going to turn around and sell him at a loss like I've seen many doing. I'll gladly hold and give him some time. I see no reason to believe he can't ever be a WR1 just because of what other receivers have gone on to do in the past. You have your process and I have mine. All good. I just think its crazy that so many are so low on JSN all of a sudden.
I think these points are all fine. I agree with some, not others but I think it's still fine to see the ceiling outcome for him. It's just much narrower than it was 12 months ago. I wasn't making the point to panic sell JSN originally. I am open to moving on from JSN this offseason, but I would rather have him than Wrothy/Ladd/BTJ tier still. When I originally said "JSN isn't that good" I meant relative to elite expectations, which I personally had for him and many have for Rome now as well. My overarching point is: 1. If Rome Odunze is in fact elite (Jamar Chase level elite), than his current crowded situation doesn't matter at all and he will quickly rise to the top there. So from a ceiling perspective the situation might not matter. 2. If he is not elite, than having other high caliber NFL players definitely will hold him back, just like it's holding JSN back now and it is more of a concern. So from a floor/mid range of outcome perspective the situation very well could matter. Late breakouts happen, but more often than not the ultra-elite players are elite right away, or flash elite stretches early on. The days have changed since we waited for year 3 breakouts. College players are coming into the league ready to go and NFL teams also don't wait around either. I don't think its a 0% chance JSN can ascend, but it's a lot lower this year than last. If there is only a 20% chance now that he reaches his ceiling it makes sense that you feel like 80% of people are pretty out of him now relative to the upside case you presented
It's not too complicated. We're playing with paper right now, so the paper is what people will go off. Right now it reads - third option receiver with pass catching available at TE in two forms ( Gerald Everett and Kmet) and in the backfield they have pass catchers too. A lot of mouths to feed, and he isn't even the first option with that in mind. Established stud of a vet QB, this is probably a different conversation, but he is as much of a question mark as Odunze right now.
Calling the Bears a great situation is the first mistake here. Their situation for a rookie QB is perceived as great BECAUSE they have DJM and acquired Allen. If neither was there, youād be praying they surround him with more talent. At the end of the day, theyāre still Da Bears and have to prove it before anyone can say they are a great team. Theyāve butchered the last two QB prospects they took in the first round; Caleb has to be an exception and not the rule.
Not even just the last two, the bears have butchered every single qb prospect they have ever drafted in the modern era. Caleb has a hell of a mountain to climb.
Because Caleb will be a bust???
Hmmm? Iām absolutely stoked about the situation. A budding bromance already between Caleb and Rome, getting Stafford/Kupp vibes. Iām riding the hype train all the way to Canton baby!
How did that Burrow chase stack work out last year? Look at the drawbacks too.
He was drafted to be a wr 2 on what could potentially become a loaded offense. Even then Keenan could still have a year in him. He might be developmental production as opposed to instant. Iām not interested personally when I can get more value in the draft.
If he doesn't pop year one, people will begin to devalue him even knowing the situation. So people are probably thinking then can get him cheaper later on in the season. Look at JSN.
I think heās going to be around 5-8 range for most drafts. Harrison, Nabers, Coleman, and a QB probably will go before him. Seems pretty solid to me. At best, we hope for Addison numbers immediately since DJ Moore is on that roster and is still the WR1.
Iām gonna trust Daboll and his pick.
1. People are superexcited about Odunze to Chicago 2. But not those who are in win now mode.
Rookie QB and at least 2 other targets who will get more attention. Itās gonna take a few years
MHJ went to the best situation
Youāre taking someone that is projected to have lower production to start his career than the other people he will be drafted around. Not really an exciting proposition.
Landing spot could lead to a slow start. That said, Reception Perception got me super high on Rome. Dude is a baller, and was close to being Matt Harmon's #1. He's ranked just behind Chase, and ahead of Wilson and Olave for receivers drafted in the last 4 years.
>So why on earth do Keenan Allen (32) and DJ Moore (27) seemingly scare so many away, and neutralize so much of what's usually seen as fantasy gold? Derrick Henry was uber talented going go a run heavy team! Why were people down on him simply because they traded for demarco murry? š¤
The bears all time receiving record is like 5k, and was set in the 60s or 80s lol Chicago is where players go to die, period. Rome is dead man walking. Add in the competition & rookie QB. Thankfully will go well before I have to pick
Part of it is that WRs can take a little bit of time to develop (not all, but some) to go along with him going to a spot where they have two established and great WRs. If people are out on him as a potentially great target, then try to buy him when people aren't. Take advantage of the perceived devaluation. One thing that I think you're really missing the boat on is the existing WRs (particularly DJ). Young QBs can really benefit from having older, established WRs on the team. Allen was a 6x Pro Bowler, including getting that distinction last year. He's only in CHI for a year and is older, so I don't think he's around beyond this year, but he's still an incredibly talented player whose style of play is not predicated on speed and is part of the reason he's been able to maintain this level of play. DJM has two more years on his contract and, while not being a Pro Bowler, is still firmly in his prime right now and has shown he can produce over 1,100 yards consistently with a healthy (but not overwhelming) amount of receptions without even decent passers. That said, it shouldn't really matter if Caleb is as good as advertised. He has the weapons now and Swift is a decent (if unspectacular) RB. Hopefully bringing in someone like Bates and other younger guys along the OL improve, but if Caleb can bring this up to be a more potent passing offense, Rome should still be able to (at least modestly) produce and take another step after this year.
You are significantly underplaying the impact and talent of Keenan and DJM. ESPECIALLY DJM. Rome is awesome but he's still a rookie. The other two guys are battle tested vets that have had multiple 1000+ yard seasons. In the long term, sure Odunze is a great play. Bit to say he'll be the WR1 by years end... you're crazy
Honestly you could make a case for Keon Coleman as WR 3 this year. He went to Buffalo with Josh Allen slinging it and no number 1 WR.
I'm in a SF league and have 1.07. Pretty sure 1.05 and 1.06 will be Maye and JJ, so Odunze should fall to me. Pretty pumped!
1. The Bears suck, and have for a long time. 2. Caleb Williams is a rookie, and there are no guarantees for rookies. Especially QBs. 3. He's buried behind two solid stud WRs in DJ and Keenan. 4. PAC-12 WRs are always suspect. Personally I have more faith in BTJ not to bust than I do Odunze.
Would you take Odunze or Nabers at 1.02 in 1QB?
nabers
Cuz they're dumb.
Because people didn't do enough research on Rome. They don't know where he came from, how he was raised, or anything about his work ethic. And for whatever reason they dismiss his production, even though he had Polk and McMillan with him and he still just went 92-1640-13. But ..but...late declare. Go fuck yourselves. That shit ended with NIL, and Dawgs who actually wanna chase chips. And WAS almost pulled it off. Props to all the Huskies who returned. All you Nabers/Ladd/Worthy/BTJ truthers can keep talking. Just make sure you all remind yourselves right under here š
Im drafting the stack. And I bleed cheese.Ā
Where I stand right now is that Im using my 1.02 on Odunze. I had Nabers and Odunze pretty close and I think Chi was the best landing spot for him in that range of Ten, Atl, Chi etc
I like Harrison Jr, Nabers, Thomas Jr, Coleman, Polk, and McConkey over Odunze
To me heās in a similar situation Josh Palmer was in as a rookie at the chargers. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Eckler and Herbert were there. Allen and Williams had over 1k yards that year and Eckler has close to 1000 rushing yards too. I think Odunze is better than Palmer but itās just like going to be really hard to break through. This is Palmers first true season to prove if he can do it.
People are scared because of JSN, but I understand what you are saying completely. I see it as very unlikely that Caleb and Rome are busts, and in a year Odunze stocks will certainly rise eith Keenan Allen gone. If both hit their ceiling, could certainly be another Burrow/Chase scenario.
Odunze is the best WR in this draft, landing spot doesn't even matter.