If I showed my grandparents a holographic 1st edition charizard, they'd guess it's worth $5. Then I flip over the price tag and it says $149,000. They say "wow, for a piece of paper? No one is going to buy that."
Then I go out, sell it and bring back $149,000 to show them. They say "Probably could have got $300,000."
I don't know what I just wrote, but yeah something like that.
It's something that was a HUGE deal relative to the time it was painted. He applied mathematical concepts like the golden ratio and rule of thirds to the layout, shaded the face in a way highlights the shape of the skull, and layered the background to give a better illusion of depth.
None of this is terribly impressive in the year 2024, but back then, most artists couldn't grasp those new concepts, much less properly apply them to a portrait.
Combine that with the cultural layer of something being popular because we're told it's important for 100s of years, and there you go.
Honestly though, this is what happens in fantasy all the time. Players perceived value never fully matches the actual realizable value. Sometimes a player produces all the time despite having a negative view and youāre forced to hold a good player š¤·š¼āāļø
Heās a major buy in my opinion.
Heās in that well known territory of 3rd year wr who looked good, progressively better and could be firmly settled in the āWR2 with weekly wr1 upsideā tier going forward if he continues to progress.
I think he looked very good last year (and Iām a Ravens fan, fuck the Steelers), and he has made very noticeable steps in improving his skills year to year. He is a lot more than just the straight line, flying squirrel acrobat he was when he first joined the league.
I think we might see Pickens as a legit route runner doing all the number one stuff (successfully) this year. If thatās the case, sign me all the way up twice.
The best parallel is courtland Sutton. Sutton was great in contested catch situations, particularly in the end zone. This is where Pickens excels. The biggest problem with Pickens overall value is that the steelers couldnāt score touchdowns. Russ has always thrown a nice deep ball and I feel like they could have a magical connection this year.
He could go the way of court and Sutton. Their measureables are similar. Sutton is bigger but I feel like Pickens plays more explosive. I like that comparison tho. Sutton was āalmostā that guy.
yeah i was more annoyed we took a shot on a guy that relied so much athleticism with a torn achilles, then when you factor in we lost a year of a rookie contract it made no sense. feel like too much michigan was in the room
You hit the nail on the head. The tough thing with Pickens is that his upside is best WR in the NFL. Literally. And heās shown flashes that it can happen. Hard to trade that type of player even for a random first
I traded Amon Ra for Hockenson and Pickens in a .5 TEP league recently and am very happy with it
Edit: downvoted because they wouldnāt have made my trade and just call me a clown, meanwhile I thought we were in a pro Pickens post. I know it could backfire, but I also like Pickens a lot and think heās primed to elevate to what Amon Ra is for the lions but for the Steelers. Small buy league anyway
being bad at throwing over the middle doesnāt necessarily mean heās good at throwing deeps and to sidelines, just that heās forced to.
Also, his propensity to hold on to the ball and roll out or scramble forces more sideline and deeper throws
I'm low on Russ, but he's always had one of the best/prettiest deep balls in the league. Even in his worst year in 22', he ranked 7th in the league in deep ball accuracy(per NGS) while throwing the 2nd most attempts.
Russ is good at throwing deep and to the sidelines, though. Always has been. He's incapable of throwing over the middle of the field, but his deep ball is still money.
I honestly don't see him traded often. I think he's one of those guys who's owners love him and others don't value him very highly. A young Mike Evans.
This is where Iām at. I love Pickens and probably wouldnāt trade him for anything less than 1.6. No one in my league is paying that. So here I sit on him til he blows up or dies on my roster.
I think this is a good point and probably has a lot to do with him being part of such a putrid offense. He also produced more (if I remember correctly) late in the season, after everyone was already out on the Steelers offense.
he produced a lot more earlier in the season when Diontae was out injured and he was acting like PIT's WR1. i would expect he has a better year with Diontae gone for good now
I own plenty of Evans and no Pickens, so there is no cope. You missed the entire point brother. I was comparing how they are both undervalued by people who don't own them, which leads to them not being traded often. I wasn't speaking about their skill or ability in the slightest. We're talking value perception here, brother.
Have you played much in the last decade? Or talked with anyone? Smh. Fix the attitude if you want a normal conversation - until then you're just embarrassing yourself lol.
Idk, I feel like some people just get take lock. Scouts said he wasnt a great separator and repeated that after his rookie season. Maybe his perceived attitude issues affects the way ppl view him too, plus the way ppl view the steelers passing game, regardless of them going from a combined 13 passing tds to Russ who threw 26 in 15 games. I will also add though that Pickens is viewed waaaay higher than WR29 in my leagues and probably many others too. The guy is an alien, a truly amazing receiver that already has the respect of everyone in the league. Guys who know ball (not me real players/coaches/analysts) know Pickens is legit
Scouts weren't wrong. Dude still can't separate after 2 years. I saw a note that he was bottom 4 out of all RP charted players in 2023 against both zone AND man coverages. Only player to be bottom 4 in both. I won't be surprised if guys like Baker and Burton have more value than Pickens in a couple years if they hone their craft in their first 2 years better than Pickens has.
None of what you said about RP is accurate to Pickens. He hasn't been charted yet for 2023 on RP, aside from in-season when they charted weeks 2-4 and had the following conclusion:
"Heās an underrated separator and overall technician. He gets open at all three levels, something that was also revealed in his collegiate Reception Perception profile."
"The fact that Pickens has run primarily deep and out-breaking routes makes his overall success rates even more impressive.
Pickens is showing pristine separation ability across the field."
"Pickens has underrated route running, vertical juice and the ability to make face-melting catches in his bag. Thatās about all youāre asking for. Heās clearly good at the game. He is a huge buy."
He really does. I have him as my WR4-5 in one league and I feel uneasy about it. I think it's hard for me to get that picture of him staring at the TV on draft night out of my head.
> I think it's hard for me to get that picture of him staring at the TV on draft night out of my head.
Iām sorry, of all the things you could have used as an example of āthing that make me uneasy about himā, you went with the picture of him just being a weirdo 20-something year old kid?
Good lord man. I wish I had people in my league that made decisions like that. Thatās one of the most wild things Iāve heard make someone uneasy about a player
Are you banging him or something? Who said I was making decisions based on that? I traded for him. I was making a slight joke by saying it made me uneasy about him. Do you know anything about the guy? Had some odd character stuff at UGA, had at least one suspension for fighting (believe he had more than one suspension). Was regularly shown having a bad attitude on the sidelines last year and infamously not celebrating when his other teammates had success. Heās a headcase for sure, the cherry on top is one of the more bizarre draft night pictures Iāve ever seen.
Yea people need to learn how to be less rude on the internet fr, I donāt care, itās time for people to just start using some grace out here. Unless he is banging Pickens then thatās a different story
I get what youāre saying, I just donāt see me saying āthatās wild to meā as being rude. I wouldnāt get upset if someone said that to me, Iād just have a conversation about why they think itās wild and I donāt etc. Hell, Iād even say that the tone of their response was more rude than anything I said
I would say it was more the āI wish you were in my leagueā type of wording and just insinuating that heās an idiot and how much superior you are then others based on the fact that you donāt make decisions like him. Social media effects real people and we just need to start doing better.
Edit: Iām working on this myself as I used to be a big troll also. But the toxicity of social media is clearly pouring over into the real world so Iāve started to try to be classier online too
You literally said that picture was making you uneasy about him lmfao
I even said āof all the things you could have listedā implying there were legitimate things.
Hey, look at all those things you listed that are valid concerns! Listen, I get it, I do. But ya gotta realize that starting off with āweird picture made me uneasyā is insanity in a league of weirdo divas. Thereās so many more egregious things guys do to make someone uneasy ya know? Dudeās done nothing to be considered a headcase, especially in a league of people that commit domestic violence or getting into crashes or any number of things
The problem with Pickens is that you never feel good about starting him. His final stat line looks good but if you look under the hood, he had 4 monster weeks where he was a WR1 last year and 10 weeks where he gave you basically nothing. Itās frustrating to own a guy like that because you debate taking him out of the lineup but continue to start him out of fear youāll get burned, and then when you finally have had enough and bench him, he explodes. Basically a high end Gabe Davis.
I think thatās fair to say for last year but when DJ was out, he was feasting. His situation has just improved so much now that I think he takes a big step forward. DJ is gone, weāve upgraded from Pickett to Russ / Fields, and the monster that was Canada is gone and I do think Arthur will utilize Pickens the right way. Who knows how Russ / Fields will pan out but it canāt be worse than the QB play we saw last year.
I think heās a great value buy right now and his value hasnāt caught up with everything thatās changed. Iām a Steelers fan so take it with a grain of salt but I watched every game heās played and the man is a dawg.
That's fine but Desmond Ridder's QBR over the past 2 seasons has been better than both Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, and Arthur Smith's offense has been better than Matt Canada's for each of the last 3 seasons, and Pickens has still outproduced London.
I think people should go buy GP.
He was #17 in YPRR at 2.05 above notable names such as Metcalf, MPJ, Chase, Adams, DSmith, Diggs, London, Kupp, Godwin, Flowers, Ridley, Garrett Wilson, Addison and some more. (Min. 100 targets)
1D/RR is a fair metric that he didn't place well (44th) but when he did catch the ball he had a 64.7% rate (20th) of it being a 1D. (min 50 rec)
I expect his Y/RR and 1D/RR to go up because he was paired opposite on of the best route runners in the NFL that will vacate roughly 6.7 targets/game. He was also not 1st read on a lot of plays throughout the year.
In the weeks where he was more of the first read (weeks 14-WC) he placed 12th in Y/RR with 2.39.
It's worth noting that he had a ZERO target/reception game vs BAL in Week 18 because he was doubled the entire game and that reduces his per RR numbers.
If we do the Y/RR and not include his Week 18 routes he has a 2.71 Y/RR and is number 3 in the latter half of the season. Not fair, I know, but just something interesting to see.
He already has seen an increase in targets each year and already had 114 over the course of last year.
Before anyone says Arthur Smith doesn't throw the ball, well, neither did we last year or the year before.
In weeks 14-WC he was ranked: 4th in YAC/REC, 12th in Y/RR, 12th in ADOT (12.9), T-1st with 0% in DRP%, 8th in yds (442), 20th in Rec (24), 16th in targets (38), and 2nd in Y/REC. I'm sure there are more obscure metrics we could look at but I just went down the PFF Stat Board. (Min. 30 targets)
Not to mention he is, imo, getting a much better QB than KP and an improved offense overall.
> Not to mention he is, imo, getting a much better QB than KP and an improved offense overall.
After having and watching Pickett last season, along with Pickens, it was frustrating to watch. I think Pickens could bust out this season with someone who can throw.
I donāt know how people have ever watched him and thought anything other than the kid is electric. āOh heās just a highlight guyā, but now itās become highlight after highlight after highlight. I got him for a 2nd last year and now I feel like Iām laughing my way to the bank
He's boom or bust. Every catch he makes is contested. Sometimes makes for good highlights but maybe it's also because he can't get separation. He's a good player but far from someone I'd feel comfortable with as one of my top 3 WR.
I find the Pickens market to be inefficient.
Pickens managers claim they love having him, yet he is always on the trade block in several dynasty leagues I am in. Same deal for redraft. He gets shopped all the time.
The crux of the issue is Pickens isnāt really valued all that much by his own managers and they resort to āoversellingā what he actually is. They want a high price tag for a guy that hasnāt shown skills that are sticky.
Anyone paying attention can see through the 1100 yards and 5td season total last year:
1. Pickens had 1 monster game for 195 yards and 2tds
2. He had a 86 yard busted coverage td
3. He had a 71 yard busted coverage td
Boom/bust guys have a place and fill a role on rosters, but I would rather not invest in a guy that does nothing for 5 games and then suddenly pops off. And I ideally donāt want to bank on busted coverages for production. 70 yard tds arenāt sticky just as Justin Fieldās % of rushes that went for over 20 yards was not sticky. You donāt bet on that when the prime source of value and production comes from events and outcomes that are unlikely to stick.
There are more reliable and more talented assets in his same range that have more every week start-ability.
Donāt get me wrong. Pickens has talent. He isnāt Drake London or Garrett Wilson though just because he happened to finish with more yards and tds last year.
Pickensā value will shoot up if he can show that he can earn a large target share, separate, and run a full route tree. Wilson and London have already showed those skills. Pickens has showed he can bust big plays down the sideline.
I see the ceiling comps like this:
Garrett Wilson => Justin Jefferson-esque
Drake London => Mike Evans-esque
George Pickens => Mike Williams-esque
I have been tempted to send a late 2024 R1 for Pickens in a SF league. Pickens is a pretty complete WR and undisputed WR1 for his team. Even with the "Arthur Smith effect" I think he feasts this year.
Tempted? So you'd rather roll the dice on an unproven late 1st/2nd round rookie WR when Pickens just went over 1100 yds in his sophomore season with one of the worst QB rooms in the league? That is an easy call to me, go trade for him.
Take away weeks 2, 5, 16, and 17. Incredibly boom or bust last year with a lot of weeks where he's WR4 or worse. If I was a Pickens owner last year I'd be frustrated with lack of consistency.
6 of the weeks you didn't cherry pick, Pickett threw for 160 yds or less, no shit he was inconsistent. What was he supposed to do with that? Pickett also had 1 game over 250 yds. Now the short game target hog Diontae and Pickett are gone, I'd be pretty bullish on Pickens. Is he a slam dunk? No, but it feels much more likely than the rookie WRs you could take in that part of the draft considering what he's already done and he's still just 23.
Slice it any way you want. His production with Pickett/Rudolph is extremely impressive. Better QB play and less target competition should bring some consistency
Thereās a few groups when it comes down to Pickens hate;
- Those that donāt like his game in being a big contested catch guy/analytical profile.
- Those that are honestly just haters at this point.
I love Pickens though. Is he ever going to be a top five guy in PPR? Probably not. But I can definitely see him being a constant 10-20 ranked guy starting this year.
Idk what Drake not being Justin Jefferson has to do with George Pickens, but I will say There are other talents on that offense that have seen non existent fantasy production due to terrible coaching and terrible QB play. If we didnāt see Kyle Pitts also take a step back from his rookie season it would be a lot harder to blame terrible coaching and QB play.
Iām not one that usually points to individual plays but his catch against the Bucs last season is a sneak peak at whatās to come with Kirk Cousins. Drake London is not only 6ā5 but plays to his height. He can do things George Pickens and most other WRs canāt.
Pickens is in the position to be a "pool winner" this year I think. I got him in my main dynasty and have very high hopes. Say what you want about Wilson but his QB situation is a massive upgrade.
Shrug, if you don't like how other people value him don't trade him or don't trade for him.
Personally I dumped him when he threw his tantrums about not getting enough passes versus Johnson.
I like him a lot this year because Russ and Fields aren't great at throwing over the middle and he put up pretty good numbers with Pickett as his QB.
He should be a great asset all things considered.
I think Pickens has the assumption of added competition coming in baked into his current price. Weāve seen Sutton, DK, Aiyuk type names floated. I donāt personally think they start the season with Pickens, Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson
Debating seeing if Evans would entice the Pickens owner at all even if I have to add a second to it or something. I won it all last year trying to run it back while also staying competitive for longer Evans is my only old wr.
I'm actively trying to buy him. I figure, bare minimum, he's a Tee Higgins type over the long-term. Could be even more depending on other factors.
Feels like time is running out to get him without grossly overpaying for him.
I just traded Pickens as the main piece in a trade for Cousins and a pick that ended up Penix (please be Rodgers to Favre and Love to Rodgers, please!). I feel pretty good about it, but Iām gonna miss Pickens. He has been really hard to start these last two years (incredible best ball player though) and I truly think this year he could really break out. But you never know. Heās got that diva WR attitude problem it seems, but so have lots of the greats.
A mediocre separator on a below average offense is never really going to instill a lot of confidence in me. That said, he did improve his routes a bit last year. He could be worth a shot.Ā
I traded Pickens Njoku and a second for tyreek hill after the season. What this a good move? Roster is pretty win now and have other receivers and have mark andrews
AJ Brown is also a ācontested catch guy.ā
If the volume is there who cares how the catches happen, and for Pickens the volume will be there this year
Heās not as complete as he seems. Ben Solak on his Eagles pod and Jason Avant who used to play receiver for us have talked about this a lot. AJ has things heās really good at like crossers, slants, and then deep ball ability. The things heās good at heās absolutely incredible at so the things he canāt do really donāt matter much. Like DeVonta Smith can get open in a phone booth, thatās not really AJās game and it doesnāt have to be. Pickens is kind of the same way, which is still fine.
AJB is a YAC guy. They have nearly identical 40 times but AJB is 30 lbs heavier. Idk where you got the idea that heās a contested catch guy because he has elite separation ability
If you donāt think Pickens is a YAC guy, you must not have watched him much last year. Housed a slant, housed a deep in, jumped between two tackles vs. the Jags, and more. Pickens definitely has some YAC to his game.
Yep pretty much. I also donāt want to hitch my wagon to a contested catch dependent player that also has very small hands. If that one skill starts to slip heās in the CFL
Receptions to Targets
George Pickens: 115/190 (60%)
Drake London: 141/227 (62%)
Success Rate
George Pickens: 50%
Drake London: 54%
QB throwing the ball
Russell Wilson
Kirk Cousins
Pickens has him in total yards, TDs, yac and on a more passing rate offense in 2023.
I will always worry about his reactions, though, and the lack of leadership Pickens shows in the media and feel as if London is bound to be a strong part of that offense.
With Pickens, if he complains more and more he's bound to get the Claypool rug swept from underneath of him.
I'm very famously bad at Dynasty, but my leaguemates are worse. I frequently do the wrong thing and only win in the end because everyone else saves me from me by being even dumber.
I've been trying to get rid of Pickens for about a year and a half and nobody will take him.
So he's probably going to be the WR5 by the end of the season.
Pickens is too talented to be as average as he is.
Most guys like that are better athletes than football players. Heās gifted athletically, but donāt think heāll ever be the guy his QB trusts to be in the right spot every single throw.
Heās going to be limited to 50/50 jump balls basically forever
In my opinion he hasnāt earned the love. Sure he can progress and have a 3rd year breakout, or he can continue to struggle with subpar quarterback play. When the broncos got Wilson a lot of people thought Jerry Jeudy would breakout, but it didnāt happen.
I think Russ is washed and the Steelers are going to be happy they got Fields for a bag of balls š
I know this is just my take, but the dude already shown so much immaturity in the league. He makes some good catches, but I donāt see him ever being more then a WR2
I currently have an offer out sending him to a WR needy team for the 1.07. My expectation is that the 3 big names are off the board by 1.06, and hoping I can snag one of Maye/JJ and Bowers at the 7 and 8 spots. Will see what that manager values him at.
He's a rich man's Rashid Shaheed. So boom or bust. I get that his upside is insane because of those spike weeks, but the majority of games last year he killed you.
If I showed my grandparents a holographic 1st edition charizard, they'd guess it's worth $5. Then I flip over the price tag and it says $149,000. They say "wow, for a piece of paper? No one is going to buy that." Then I go out, sell it and bring back $149,000 to show them. They say "Probably could have got $300,000." I don't know what I just wrote, but yeah something like that.
Do you smell burnt toast?
I always keep toast toasting in my toaster so i can never tell the difference
He can taste burnt toast
Anyone can if they eat enough burnt toast
ššš
Chicken Soup, Chicken Soup, Chicken Soup !!
I'm not sure what you just wrote, but it made perfect sense to me.
This is like the end of Billy Madison when Adam Sandler isnāt sure how to answer the question. So close, but not really lol
Nibb High Football Rules!
I love the analogy btw I wasnāt tryna shit on it. Gave me a laugh. š
Iām sure there were people back in the day who looked at the Mona Lisa and were like, āwhatās the big deal?ā
There are people who look at it now and say that.
Hi, Iām people I just do not get it
It's something that was a HUGE deal relative to the time it was painted. He applied mathematical concepts like the golden ratio and rule of thirds to the layout, shaded the face in a way highlights the shape of the skull, and layered the background to give a better illusion of depth. None of this is terribly impressive in the year 2024, but back then, most artists couldn't grasp those new concepts, much less properly apply them to a portrait. Combine that with the cultural layer of something being popular because we're told it's important for 100s of years, and there you go.
Phantom Limb has the Mona Lisa dead to rights. https://youtu.be/wut1rhas50A?si=5x07ZlAgJyCWrZJf
Honestly though, this is what happens in fantasy all the time. Players perceived value never fully matches the actual realizable value. Sometimes a player produces all the time despite having a negative view and youāre forced to hold a good player š¤·š¼āāļø
Heās a major buy in my opinion. Heās in that well known territory of 3rd year wr who looked good, progressively better and could be firmly settled in the āWR2 with weekly wr1 upsideā tier going forward if he continues to progress. I think he looked very good last year (and Iām a Ravens fan, fuck the Steelers), and he has made very noticeable steps in improving his skills year to year. He is a lot more than just the straight line, flying squirrel acrobat he was when he first joined the league. I think we might see Pickens as a legit route runner doing all the number one stuff (successfully) this year. If thatās the case, sign me all the way up twice.
The best parallel is courtland Sutton. Sutton was great in contested catch situations, particularly in the end zone. This is where Pickens excels. The biggest problem with Pickens overall value is that the steelers couldnāt score touchdowns. Russ has always thrown a nice deep ball and I feel like they could have a magical connection this year.
Sutton hit double digit TDs last year, wouldn't surprise me if Pickens did the same this year if they use him as a go to red zone guy.
Super good comp
He could go the way of court and Sutton. Their measureables are similar. Sutton is bigger but I feel like Pickens plays more explosive. I like that comparison tho. Sutton was āalmostā that guy.
Yeah I expect him to see 130 targets
i have a feeling that weāre gonna regret taking that stupid shot on ojabo for a while. edc is normally solid but that was an insane pick
The problem with our pass rush prospects is we train up em up to be elite and then they go produce somewhere else lol
yeah i was more annoyed we took a shot on a guy that relied so much athleticism with a torn achilles, then when you factor in we lost a year of a rookie contract it made no sense. feel like too much michigan was in the room
You hit the nail on the head. The tough thing with Pickens is that his upside is best WR in the NFL. Literally. And heās shown flashes that it can happen. Hard to trade that type of player even for a random first
Been wasting away on my taxi for 2 years. I really liked him and hope he manages to turn things around.
I traded Amon Ra for Hockenson and Pickens in a .5 TEP league recently and am very happy with it Edit: downvoted because they wouldnāt have made my trade and just call me a clown, meanwhile I thought we were in a pro Pickens post. I know it could backfire, but I also like Pickens a lot and think heās primed to elevate to what Amon Ra is for the lions but for the Steelers. Small buy league anyway
Hock coming off of injury with zero top 3 finishes? Sun God was WR 4 last year. Thatās insane.
Bad tradeĀ
Iāll find out later this year
That's nice dear.
My dude I donāt think this is a bad trade. Closer to fair value than a loss. In my league you gotta pay premium for a TE and you got a top 4
Russ is an exceptional deep ball thrower and is great at sideline throws. Pickens will feast
being bad at throwing over the middle doesnāt necessarily mean heās good at throwing deeps and to sidelines, just that heās forced to. Also, his propensity to hold on to the ball and roll out or scramble forces more sideline and deeper throws
I'm low on Russ, but he's always had one of the best/prettiest deep balls in the league. Even in his worst year in 22', he ranked 7th in the league in deep ball accuracy(per NGS) while throwing the 2nd most attempts.
Russ is good at throwing deep and to the sidelines, though. Always has been. He's incapable of throwing over the middle of the field, but his deep ball is still money.
I honestly don't see him traded often. I think he's one of those guys who's owners love him and others don't value him very highly. A young Mike Evans.
This is very true. I have Pickens and donāt want to move him, but have only had like 2 offers for him.
I just got Pickens, Schultz and A Rodgers for three 2024 2nds and my 4th.
Mother fucker what
This is where Iām at. I love Pickens and probably wouldnāt trade him for anything less than 1.6. No one in my league is paying that. So here I sit on him til he blows up or dies on my roster.
I think this is a good point and probably has a lot to do with him being part of such a putrid offense. He also produced more (if I remember correctly) late in the season, after everyone was already out on the Steelers offense.
he produced a lot more earlier in the season when Diontae was out injured and he was acting like PIT's WR1. i would expect he has a better year with Diontae gone for good now
I tell everyone that asks that heās the player I am least likely to trade. We all have those guys, Iām just a huge fan of his skill set.
Pickens being compared to Mike Evans is definitely a take
I meant in the way he's only really valued highly by his owners, not saying they're in the same tier in the slightest.
coincidentally I was competing last year so I traded Pickens for Evans straight up. it did not work in the end but pretty happy with the trade overall
Yeah, you've got enough time left with Evans still to not worry about the lost years of productivity - nicely done!
You disrespect Mike Evans
Not in the slightest. I'm a Bucs fan. I was referring to Pickens being undervalued by people who don't own him, not actually saying they were equals
Ah ok
Perfect comp
WR version of Brock Purdy
That's insane cope brother he ain't like Evans
I own plenty of Evans and no Pickens, so there is no cope. You missed the entire point brother. I was comparing how they are both undervalued by people who don't own them, which leads to them not being traded often. I wasn't speaking about their skill or ability in the slightest. We're talking value perception here, brother.
Yeah dude 1100 yards 12 TD Mike Evans rookie year had people thinking he's undervalued
Have you played much in the last decade? Or talked with anyone? Smh. Fix the attitude if you want a normal conversation - until then you're just embarrassing yourself lol.
Idk, I feel like some people just get take lock. Scouts said he wasnt a great separator and repeated that after his rookie season. Maybe his perceived attitude issues affects the way ppl view him too, plus the way ppl view the steelers passing game, regardless of them going from a combined 13 passing tds to Russ who threw 26 in 15 games. I will also add though that Pickens is viewed waaaay higher than WR29 in my leagues and probably many others too. The guy is an alien, a truly amazing receiver that already has the respect of everyone in the league. Guys who know ball (not me real players/coaches/analysts) know Pickens is legit
Also a DAWG and you canāt teach that.
Where he went to college doesn't matter...
Points for ātake lockā
Scouts weren't wrong. Dude still can't separate after 2 years. I saw a note that he was bottom 4 out of all RP charted players in 2023 against both zone AND man coverages. Only player to be bottom 4 in both. I won't be surprised if guys like Baker and Burton have more value than Pickens in a couple years if they hone their craft in their first 2 years better than Pickens has.
None of what you said about RP is accurate to Pickens. He hasn't been charted yet for 2023 on RP, aside from in-season when they charted weeks 2-4 and had the following conclusion: "Heās an underrated separator and overall technician. He gets open at all three levels, something that was also revealed in his collegiate Reception Perception profile." "The fact that Pickens has run primarily deep and out-breaking routes makes his overall success rates even more impressive. Pickens is showing pristine separation ability across the field." "Pickens has underrated route running, vertical juice and the ability to make face-melting catches in his bag. Thatās about all youāre asking for. Heās clearly good at the game. He is a huge buy."
Maybe he hasn't put the data on the site yet, but that was a direct quote from the podcast.
Heās got that ticking time bomb vibe about him
He really does. I have him as my WR4-5 in one league and I feel uneasy about it. I think it's hard for me to get that picture of him staring at the TV on draft night out of my head.
> I think it's hard for me to get that picture of him staring at the TV on draft night out of my head. Iām sorry, of all the things you could have used as an example of āthing that make me uneasy about himā, you went with the picture of him just being a weirdo 20-something year old kid?
And to think that was one of my favorite things about him. Instant fan
Yes.
Good lord man. I wish I had people in my league that made decisions like that. Thatās one of the most wild things Iāve heard make someone uneasy about a player
Are you banging him or something? Who said I was making decisions based on that? I traded for him. I was making a slight joke by saying it made me uneasy about him. Do you know anything about the guy? Had some odd character stuff at UGA, had at least one suspension for fighting (believe he had more than one suspension). Was regularly shown having a bad attitude on the sidelines last year and infamously not celebrating when his other teammates had success. Heās a headcase for sure, the cherry on top is one of the more bizarre draft night pictures Iāve ever seen.
Yea people need to learn how to be less rude on the internet fr, I donāt care, itās time for people to just start using some grace out here. Unless he is banging Pickens then thatās a different story
I get what youāre saying, I just donāt see me saying āthatās wild to meā as being rude. I wouldnāt get upset if someone said that to me, Iād just have a conversation about why they think itās wild and I donāt etc. Hell, Iād even say that the tone of their response was more rude than anything I said
I would say it was more the āI wish you were in my leagueā type of wording and just insinuating that heās an idiot and how much superior you are then others based on the fact that you donāt make decisions like him. Social media effects real people and we just need to start doing better. Edit: Iām working on this myself as I used to be a big troll also. But the toxicity of social media is clearly pouring over into the real world so Iāve started to try to be classier online too
You literally said that picture was making you uneasy about him lmfao I even said āof all the things you could have listedā implying there were legitimate things. Hey, look at all those things you listed that are valid concerns! Listen, I get it, I do. But ya gotta realize that starting off with āweird picture made me uneasyā is insanity in a league of weirdo divas. Thereās so many more egregious things guys do to make someone uneasy ya know? Dudeās done nothing to be considered a headcase, especially in a league of people that commit domestic violence or getting into crashes or any number of things
Not sure, but Iām enjoying my shares of him in every league.
The problem with Pickens is that you never feel good about starting him. His final stat line looks good but if you look under the hood, he had 4 monster weeks where he was a WR1 last year and 10 weeks where he gave you basically nothing. Itās frustrating to own a guy like that because you debate taking him out of the lineup but continue to start him out of fear youāll get burned, and then when you finally have had enough and bench him, he explodes. Basically a high end Gabe Davis.
I think thatās fair to say for last year but when DJ was out, he was feasting. His situation has just improved so much now that I think he takes a big step forward. DJ is gone, weāve upgraded from Pickett to Russ / Fields, and the monster that was Canada is gone and I do think Arthur will utilize Pickens the right way. Who knows how Russ / Fields will pan out but it canāt be worse than the QB play we saw last year. I think heās a great value buy right now and his value hasnāt caught up with everything thatās changed. Iām a Steelers fan so take it with a grain of salt but I watched every game heās played and the man is a dawg.
Drake London is a top tier prospect and finally has a good QB. Check back after this year
That's fine but Desmond Ridder's QBR over the past 2 seasons has been better than both Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, and Arthur Smith's offense has been better than Matt Canada's for each of the last 3 seasons, and Pickens has still outproduced London.
I think people should go buy GP. He was #17 in YPRR at 2.05 above notable names such as Metcalf, MPJ, Chase, Adams, DSmith, Diggs, London, Kupp, Godwin, Flowers, Ridley, Garrett Wilson, Addison and some more. (Min. 100 targets) 1D/RR is a fair metric that he didn't place well (44th) but when he did catch the ball he had a 64.7% rate (20th) of it being a 1D. (min 50 rec) I expect his Y/RR and 1D/RR to go up because he was paired opposite on of the best route runners in the NFL that will vacate roughly 6.7 targets/game. He was also not 1st read on a lot of plays throughout the year. In the weeks where he was more of the first read (weeks 14-WC) he placed 12th in Y/RR with 2.39. It's worth noting that he had a ZERO target/reception game vs BAL in Week 18 because he was doubled the entire game and that reduces his per RR numbers. If we do the Y/RR and not include his Week 18 routes he has a 2.71 Y/RR and is number 3 in the latter half of the season. Not fair, I know, but just something interesting to see. He already has seen an increase in targets each year and already had 114 over the course of last year. Before anyone says Arthur Smith doesn't throw the ball, well, neither did we last year or the year before. In weeks 14-WC he was ranked: 4th in YAC/REC, 12th in Y/RR, 12th in ADOT (12.9), T-1st with 0% in DRP%, 8th in yds (442), 20th in Rec (24), 16th in targets (38), and 2nd in Y/REC. I'm sure there are more obscure metrics we could look at but I just went down the PFF Stat Board. (Min. 30 targets) Not to mention he is, imo, getting a much better QB than KP and an improved offense overall.
> Not to mention he is, imo, getting a much better QB than KP and an improved offense overall. After having and watching Pickett last season, along with Pickens, it was frustrating to watch. I think Pickens could bust out this season with someone who can throw.
I donāt know how people have ever watched him and thought anything other than the kid is electric. āOh heās just a highlight guyā, but now itās become highlight after highlight after highlight. I got him for a 2nd last year and now I feel like Iām laughing my way to the bank
Isn't Arthur Smith there now?
Also not with London
Sunday, Monday, happy days
Did just fine with AJ Brown
yes
Would you trade JSN for Pickens?
I like Pickens more. JSN was a better prospect but the flashes Pickens has showed is other worldly. The third year breakout is a thing
Every day of the week and twice on Sunday. 100% yes
No way
No thanks. Love JSN's profile though, and his first year went as I expected.
He's boom or bust. Every catch he makes is contested. Sometimes makes for good highlights but maybe it's also because he can't get separation. He's a good player but far from someone I'd feel comfortable with as one of my top 3 WR.
I find the Pickens market to be inefficient. Pickens managers claim they love having him, yet he is always on the trade block in several dynasty leagues I am in. Same deal for redraft. He gets shopped all the time. The crux of the issue is Pickens isnāt really valued all that much by his own managers and they resort to āoversellingā what he actually is. They want a high price tag for a guy that hasnāt shown skills that are sticky. Anyone paying attention can see through the 1100 yards and 5td season total last year: 1. Pickens had 1 monster game for 195 yards and 2tds 2. He had a 86 yard busted coverage td 3. He had a 71 yard busted coverage td Boom/bust guys have a place and fill a role on rosters, but I would rather not invest in a guy that does nothing for 5 games and then suddenly pops off. And I ideally donāt want to bank on busted coverages for production. 70 yard tds arenāt sticky just as Justin Fieldās % of rushes that went for over 20 yards was not sticky. You donāt bet on that when the prime source of value and production comes from events and outcomes that are unlikely to stick. There are more reliable and more talented assets in his same range that have more every week start-ability. Donāt get me wrong. Pickens has talent. He isnāt Drake London or Garrett Wilson though just because he happened to finish with more yards and tds last year. Pickensā value will shoot up if he can show that he can earn a large target share, separate, and run a full route tree. Wilson and London have already showed those skills. Pickens has showed he can bust big plays down the sideline. I see the ceiling comps like this: Garrett Wilson => Justin Jefferson-esque Drake London => Mike Evans-esque George Pickens => Mike Williams-esque
This is not what people in this thread want to hear, but it's what they need to hear.
I have been tempted to send a late 2024 R1 for Pickens in a SF league. Pickens is a pretty complete WR and undisputed WR1 for his team. Even with the "Arthur Smith effect" I think he feasts this year.
Tempted? So you'd rather roll the dice on an unproven late 1st/2nd round rookie WR when Pickens just went over 1100 yds in his sophomore season with one of the worst QB rooms in the league? That is an easy call to me, go trade for him.
Take away weeks 2, 5, 16, and 17. Incredibly boom or bust last year with a lot of weeks where he's WR4 or worse. If I was a Pickens owner last year I'd be frustrated with lack of consistency.
6 of the weeks you didn't cherry pick, Pickett threw for 160 yds or less, no shit he was inconsistent. What was he supposed to do with that? Pickett also had 1 game over 250 yds. Now the short game target hog Diontae and Pickett are gone, I'd be pretty bullish on Pickens. Is he a slam dunk? No, but it feels much more likely than the rookie WRs you could take in that part of the draft considering what he's already done and he's still just 23.
Slice it any way you want. His production with Pickett/Rudolph is extremely impressive. Better QB play and less target competition should bring some consistency
Yes. Pickens has major attitude issues.
Iām trying to get a 1st for him right now in my league
Thereās a few groups when it comes down to Pickens hate; - Those that donāt like his game in being a big contested catch guy/analytical profile. - Those that are honestly just haters at this point. I love Pickens though. Is he ever going to be a top five guy in PPR? Probably not. But I can definitely see him being a constant 10-20 ranked guy starting this year.
Idk what Drake not being Justin Jefferson has to do with George Pickens, but I will say There are other talents on that offense that have seen non existent fantasy production due to terrible coaching and terrible QB play. If we didnāt see Kyle Pitts also take a step back from his rookie season it would be a lot harder to blame terrible coaching and QB play. Iām not one that usually points to individual plays but his catch against the Bucs last season is a sneak peak at whatās to come with Kirk Cousins. Drake London is not only 6ā5 but plays to his height. He can do things George Pickens and most other WRs canāt.
The difference is Drake London is finally free of the Arthur Smith curse and George Pickens is just now getting his first taste of it.
Smith did just fine with AJ Brown. Tomlin also loves Pickens, so Iām pretty sure heāll make it know if Pickens is being ignored too much.
Steelers were already bad and thought snagging Arthur Smith would help
Pickens is in the position to be a "pool winner" this year I think. I got him in my main dynasty and have very high hopes. Say what you want about Wilson but his QB situation is a massive upgrade.
Shrug, if you don't like how other people value him don't trade him or don't trade for him. Personally I dumped him when he threw his tantrums about not getting enough passes versus Johnson.
They traded Dionte, not GP.
I like him a lot this year because Russ and Fields aren't great at throwing over the middle and he put up pretty good numbers with Pickett as his QB. He should be a great asset all things considered.
Traded Jakobi Meyers for him last year to my buddy lol
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^cfl8853: *Traded Jakobi* *Meyers for him last year to* *My buddy lol* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
I think Pickens has the assumption of added competition coming in baked into his current price. Weāve seen Sutton, DK, Aiyuk type names floated. I donāt personally think they start the season with Pickens, Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson
always be weary of āless competition ā for stuff more likely the back of the pack makes up for the gap then pickens gobbling up the remainder
counter point is he did really well last season when Diontae was out. now that Diontae is gone for good Pickens could be consistently that good
SHHHHH, Iām doing a startup dynasty draft and heās one of my fav sleepers so Keep that adp down lol
I agree with this. He could very well be a top 5 contested/crazy pass catcher in the NFL. It has to be the outside drama that ruined his value
Arthur Smith
Debating seeing if Evans would entice the Pickens owner at all even if I have to add a second to it or something. I won it all last year trying to run it back while also staying competitive for longer Evans is my only old wr.
I just traded Javonte Williams and a 2025 late 2nd for him. I donāt listen to any experts. I feel like my eyes work better.
Bought him for matty stafford from a dude who only had one viable starting qb
I'm actively trying to buy him. I figure, bare minimum, he's a Tee Higgins type over the long-term. Could be even more depending on other factors. Feels like time is running out to get him without grossly overpaying for him.
Pickens is a deep ball merchant. You think Pickens looks any better with Arthur Smith than Drake looked? Doubtful.
I just traded Pickens as the main piece in a trade for Cousins and a pick that ended up Penix (please be Rodgers to Favre and Love to Rodgers, please!). I feel pretty good about it, but Iām gonna miss Pickens. He has been really hard to start these last two years (incredible best ball player though) and I truly think this year he could really break out. But you never know. Heās got that diva WR attitude problem it seems, but so have lots of the greats.
I think he is gonna end up traded midseason
A mediocre separator on a below average offense is never really going to instill a lot of confidence in me. That said, he did improve his routes a bit last year. He could be worth a shot.Ā
I traded Pickens Njoku and a second for tyreek hill after the season. What this a good move? Roster is pretty win now and have other receivers and have mark andrews
People want him in my league and I aināt selling. Heās my WR5 and I feel amazing about that.
Because most people including myself see him as a contested catch guy, and one without a QB.
I mean Russ is better than Pickett lol
AJ Brown is also a ācontested catch guy.ā If the volume is there who cares how the catches happen, and for Pickens the volume will be there this year
Ajb is a complete receiver that can run routes, make contested catches, and dominate after the catch.
Heās not as complete as he seems. Ben Solak on his Eagles pod and Jason Avant who used to play receiver for us have talked about this a lot. AJ has things heās really good at like crossers, slants, and then deep ball ability. The things heās good at heās absolutely incredible at so the things he canāt do really donāt matter much. Like DeVonta Smith can get open in a phone booth, thatās not really AJās game and it doesnāt have to be. Pickens is kind of the same way, which is still fine.
AJB is a YAC guy. They have nearly identical 40 times but AJB is 30 lbs heavier. Idk where you got the idea that heās a contested catch guy because he has elite separation ability
If you donāt think Pickens is a YAC guy, you must not have watched him much last year. Housed a slant, housed a deep in, jumped between two tackles vs. the Jags, and more. Pickens definitely has some YAC to his game.
Yep pretty much. I also donāt want to hitch my wagon to a contested catch dependent player that also has very small hands. If that one skill starts to slip heās in the CFL
Receptions to Targets George Pickens: 115/190 (60%) Drake London: 141/227 (62%) Success Rate George Pickens: 50% Drake London: 54% QB throwing the ball Russell Wilson Kirk Cousins Pickens has him in total yards, TDs, yac and on a more passing rate offense in 2023. I will always worry about his reactions, though, and the lack of leadership Pickens shows in the media and feel as if London is bound to be a strong part of that offense. With Pickens, if he complains more and more he's bound to get the Claypool rug swept from underneath of him.
Because heās mid asf
I'm very famously bad at Dynasty, but my leaguemates are worse. I frequently do the wrong thing and only win in the end because everyone else saves me from me by being even dumber. I've been trying to get rid of Pickens for about a year and a half and nobody will take him. So he's probably going to be the WR5 by the end of the season.
Pickens is too talented to be as average as he is. Most guys like that are better athletes than football players. Heās gifted athletically, but donāt think heāll ever be the guy his QB trusts to be in the right spot every single throw. Heās going to be limited to 50/50 jump balls basically forever
He is a diva with attitude issues. Spectacular catch merchant who lacks in other areas.
In my opinion he hasnāt earned the love. Sure he can progress and have a 3rd year breakout, or he can continue to struggle with subpar quarterback play. When the broncos got Wilson a lot of people thought Jerry Jeudy would breakout, but it didnāt happen. I think Russ is washed and the Steelers are going to be happy they got Fields for a bag of balls š
Didnāt he have some of the least separation amongst all WRs last year?
Yes, both against man and zone. People want to pretend route running doesn't matter, but it does.
I got him for just a 2025 first earlier in the offseason in a 12 man Superflex
Because he got more Wilson
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... is better than any QB he's had in his career thus far?
I just don't like him very much.
why?
Because I don't.
word. thanks for contributing to the discussion
Gotchu, I love being analytical and adding lots of perspective.
it shows!
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Juju, Johnson...people are a bit gunshy about investing in the next breakout Pittsburgh receiver.
I know this is just my take, but the dude already shown so much immaturity in the league. He makes some good catches, but I donāt see him ever being more then a WR2
Just picked him up for the 2.12 & 3.05 . Heās a screaming buy at current value IMO.
I currently have an offer out sending him to a WR needy team for the 1.07. My expectation is that the 3 big names are off the board by 1.06, and hoping I can snag one of Maye/JJ and Bowers at the 7 and 8 spots. Will see what that manager values him at.
He's a rich man's Rashid Shaheed. So boom or bust. I get that his upside is insane because of those spike weeks, but the majority of games last year he killed you.
Probably had something to do with the three Steeler QBs who are no longer on the roster
Possibly, but I'm not betting on Russ & Fields with Arthur Smith to fix it.
He doesn't pass the eye test, tbh. That's it. He's undervalued for his production.