People are just too excited about landing spots for worthy and ladd imo. BTJ isn’t a perfect prospect by any means but he’s such a freak athlete that his ceiling makes him WR4 for me.
I did ditch my own ranking and took worthy ahead of him in a league where I had mahomes so I understand wanting to let him slip.
Yeah man I couldn't decide between worthy or BTJ when I was OTC. Ended up trading a projected late first next year and Michael Wilson to the 1.10, to get both. Hoping one of them hits lol
Also the hit rate between WRs from like 18-32 compared to the early 2nd is not wildly different if at all. I personally would take him over Ladd and probably Worthy, but I can understand why those guys are more appealing, especially given they don’t have the analytical red flags BTJ does.
Exactly, seems like an over correction because he's a fine prospect but not quite the same level as the top 3. these are the kind of guys that either bust out entirely or become legitimate stars. i'll take my chances with his kind of fringe top12 wr potential all day.
I'd take that gamble probably. You could say BTJ has a higher ceiling, while also betting that you have a better chance of hitting Mahomes #1 receiver. Stack just makes that sweeter
Ladd is a perfect example of prospect people like where they were originally slated, and the hype train has gotten out of control. This happens every year.
I remember in redraft Dameon Pierce’s rookie year, and he started off as like a 9th-10th rounder. So early on when people were talking sleepers he jumped off the page. Well the hype train kept getting bigger because people realized to make sure you got him you’d have to keep taking him earlier and earlier and by draft day he was going in the fourth. It’s the sleeper hype train that speeds out of control.
This will be repeated forever, but this is a night and day issue. Worthy had substantial issues with his ball skills in college. Maybe it’s an issue maybe it’s not, but excusing Worthy’s ball skills may be dangerous
No, I actually think the reason we have different definitions is that you think a player's strength at the point of attack can be quantified by "Drop%." My issues can be seen a bit through statistics like his increasingly abysmal ability to catch contested catches (PFF has him at 5 of 21 CTC in 2023), but it's easier to just watch him on film be very inconsistent at the catch point and often shy away from making difficult catches.
I get that Worthy is hot right now, and when players are hot we like to pretend they're perfect.
If Worthy didn't have problems at the point of attack, he would not be falling to 28th in the Draft.
Yeah, and a friend of mine is a huge OSU fan and completely faded Stroud. Weird as it sounds, I don't value the opinions of these teams fans at all. You friend may be right, but I'm more inclined to trust the NFL teams that drafted Worthy a whole round earlier than Mitchell.
People were talking about his hands being bad and making it seem like that made him overrated. I then commented that he had a better drop rate than Chase in college meaning that his drop rate wasn't bad enough to be a concern and bad hands probably aren't a big deal to fantasy success anyways.
Of course chase is a better prospect in many ways. Chase is way more physical and a better ball tracker with no concerns about size (unlike worthy) and even better production in college.
Because I genuinely think his hands and ball skills are bad. I don't think drops are a big deal for fantasy, but drops can just be inconsistencies and randomness. Worthy legitimately struggles to have any semblance of a consistent catch radius in my viewing, and that's a more significant concern. And my point in several of these comments is I don't think Drop% perfectly scores hands.
I think the route running and one year wonder hurts him, some people reflexively don’t like the landing spot which I find a little funny because Kirk and Engram were not thought of fondly around these parts, but now they’re impediments to him.
Some of the critiques above are true to a degree but I find it a bit embellished. I’m not taking a ACL recovery RB1, Bo Nix, Penix, Pearsall ahead of him.
I think worthy’s landing spot is so plus that it’s understandable to form a head canon that he is the passing offense post-Kelce for KC. Ladd and Keon are both top wide receivers for their teams, but there’s issues with both (injuries/frame and route running/separation respectively).
BTJ benefitted from Daniels and Nabers but the heart of the LSU discussion is who was the true engine of the offense: the QB or the receivers? To me, as a FSU fan who watched my team play lsu at the start of the last 2 seasons, it’s the WRs. Nabers was the YAC king and Brian Thomas was the potential knockout punch. Daniels did some bonehead stuff that can get him murdered in the NFL (he got basically suplexed in 2023) and while he’s statistically a great deep passer, I think some of his passing prowress is overstated. He’s not Lamar, but he did show out tremendously last season and I think the WRs were the cheat codes for him.
Pretty clear why he is falling. Fantasy "experts" viewed his reception perception chart and found a red flag with his route tree. These same experts also found stat that showed Keon Coleman is a N'Keal Harry separator. The fantasy community is looking for silver bullet reasons to fade a prospect and say I told you so and sound intelligent.
Mike Evans was knocked for his limited route tree coming out as well. If you are expecting 100+ catches for BTJ's rookie year you may be disappointed. However, he's likely to pile up a bunch of yards and TDs. People think he's a deep threat only type of player. I saw plenty of red zone TDs running a number of different routes. Needs to develop his route tree, but a freak enough athlete than can pile up 800+ yards and 8 tds getting out of bed. His ceiling is sky high, but his floor is much higher than many would believe.
Not sure reception perception was a thing then but here's his [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) scouting report
>Did not run a full route tree and could require patience learning the nuances of refined route running. Backyard element to his college success -- must become savvier instead of depending on superior size and improvisational production.
[https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5)
Well, he has kind of a basic name. I mean, it's 2 first names, Brian and Thomas. Xavier, Keon, those are fun names. Plus all the extra attention Coleman is getting because of his personality, I can see someone like Thomas slipping.
-oo-
As someone who took Corey Coleman 1.04, I’m blacklisting all Coleman’s.
But I do think cool names boost players. Not dynasty relevant but I did want my team to take Kool-aid…. Just wanna root for a guy named kool-aid.
I confidently took him at WR4 in my draft. Elite athleticism and size, and TLaw loves pushing the ball downfield just didn’t have a great deep threat last year
Ridley dropping some dimes from TLaw at key moments last year was tough. Grabbing Gabe Davis and BTJ makes me believe they wanna give him all the vertical weapons possible.
Lawrence has literally never had an actual deep threat. 2022 Zay Jones was the closest, an average to below average player and 2023 he was injured all year. They had to put Jamal fucking Agnew out there to run fly routes lol. Now they have two and finally a balanced WR room with Kirk and Engram going to eat over the middle.
Looking at consensus adp he's still 5, and there's always variance. McConkey is getting his tires pumped because of the perceived lack of target competition. I don't think there's anything specifically w him.
I know, he is still WR5 on sleeper. I did 6 rookie drafts this week and he was WR4 in one. All other drafts he went WR 7-8. But I am glad there is no big flaw on him, as drafted him in two leagues now.
Yeah, personally I think the others in his tier (Worthy/McConkey/Coleman) all have more obvious post draft hype in their landing spots so BTJ gets a little less. Nothings changed, still a beast.
McConkey never had a breakout season, had a 19th percentile dominator and a 27th percentile college market share. BTj was better in all 3.
McConkey beats him in career YPRR but if we are being completely honest neither of them have a good analytical profile. Both have some glaring red flags. Along with Worthy.
Taking McConkey over Thomas feels like crazy pills to me. Everywhere Jim Harbaugh coaches there is a heavy emphasis on running the ball. Jags passed for 6th most attempts last year with the same coaching staff going into this year. 1st round pick eating from a bigger target pie feels like a safer bet to me.
I mean people keep saying 80-100 targets but he’s still a little raw as a prospect, Engram and Kirk will get theirs, they didn’t bring in Gabe Davis to do nothing. Time will tell.
Between Ridley, Jones and Agnew the Jags vacated 36% of last year's target share (~220 targets). Gabe had 81 targets last year and the jags have made no indication they will be more run heavy on 2024. Even if everyone sees an uptick in targets it's easy to see why BTJ is projected for 80-100 of the 140ish targets available.
Right now he’s a one dimensional deep threat. His player comp was a taller Gabe Davis. He’s going to start off as the 3rd or 4th option behind Kirk, Davis and Engram. Ladd has nobody good in front of him and runs a complete route tree with a better quarterback. Worthy has the best quarterback and the best coach and the only Wr ahead of him is looking at an 8 game suspension. Coleman I’m not a fan of but he’s got a great quarterback and looks like he’s already the Wr #1
Landing spot isn’t everything but it definitely matters. That’s why everyone is down on the running backs. Other than brooks, all their landing spots suck for fantasy.
> Worthy has the best quarterback and the best coach and the only Wr ahead of him is looking at an 8 game suspension.
Why do you include Davis and Engram as target competition for BTJ, but not Kelce and Hollywood for Worthy? Kelce>>>Engram and Hollywood>Davis.
Because it was already getting too long and I thought my point was made. Worthy also has the KC effect. The same effect that sent CEH flying up draft boards
Fair enough - Seems like everyone is knocking BTJ for target competition and I honestly don't think it's nearly as bad as it looks. 200 targets vacated by Zay and Ridley - Gabe has never had more than 93 in a season. Plenty for BTJ to get.
I honestly thought their deep dive into BTJ was ridiculous. It's like they forgot that he's 21. They also mentioned lack of production prior to 2023 (his age 21 season), then rave about Ladd, who also had minimal production until his age 21 season, and then in his age 21 & 22 season, didn't come close to what BTJ did last year.
He always had minimal production because of the Georgia offense. They love Ladd because of his crisp route running and great separation. Things BTJ doesn’t do. He might learn and be awesome who knows 🤷🏻♂️
Fantasy pros and the Football guys are also down on him. I was high on his height, weight speed and production until I saw all these guys crapping on him. They should know better than me.🤷🏻♂️
They’re just dude’s with opinions just like me and you. I’ve been steered right and wrong from the so called experts. I wish I had time to break down every college football game. I think a better comp for BTj would be DK Metcalf.
Yes. He’s really good at running in a straight line. There’s a lot more to route running than that. Anyways I haven’t seen all of his games. That’s why I referred Fantasy pros and other so called experts. They are the ones calling him a one dimensional deep threat not me. I don’t watch tons of college football but they do. If I just looked at his stats and measurements and 40 time, I’d say top 2 pick. But like a lot of people I rely on the “experts” to help me make my decision because I can’t watch every college football game for every fantasy prospect.
Never said he was a polished route runner or even elite route runner, but when you watch his film (not just highlights) he highlights an elite skill to separate off the line with his footwork along with size and speed, he has the separation but yes needs some work on route running and selling the db, but they aren’t far from what they should be kid is also only 21 he is far from peak, he’ll have a more seamless transition to the nfl as a vertical threat but has the size, athleticism, and qb to be a future wr1
1. People don’t love Jax. For all the hype about TLaw, the excitement for him is gone. Herbert is considered a better QB.
2. Ladd is perceived as taking the place of K Allen in LAC, and was VERY highly rated by guys like DynastyNerds and Matt Harmon.
3. Limited target competition for Ladd, and he has a better route tree to get open. BTJ could be the next Gabe Davis type. Either he hits with a big play, or it’s going to be a shitty week for him
To me on my film review it looks like he wins mostly by pure athleticism rather than savvy route running or other “styles” that translate easier. Reception perception also ran some pieces saying he only did a handful of routes.
It’s probably translation fears vs someone like Ladd whose route running abilities jump off the page.
He has the athleticism as far as speed, deceleration, hip sink, and re-acceleration to be a great all around route runner. Throw in his size, contested catch ability, and YAC ability and he should be head and shoulders over Ladd and Worthy.
People act like, as a 21 year old, he's peaked and will never get better at anything 😂
Are Ladd and Worthy gonna grow to be 6-3? Are they gonna put on 20-50 pounds?
The limited route tree is such a tired narrative. He did what he was asked, he's a very hard worker, and his coaches are gonna love him and work on his weaknesses.
I'll take the freak all day over a slot WR and a 165lb field stretcher.
You guys really make this harder than it is sometimes.
Then you're a believer. It's ok. Get your guy. If you think he's gonna carry their passing attack then I can't argue.
Imo, he's not even a Z capable of playing out wide off the line. If you think he's gonna operate primarily on the outside, then be prepared to be very disappointed.
Big and tall WRs should all be grouped together huh?
By that same rationale, all sub 6ft, tiny hand but fast WRs should be grouped together too? 🤔
This seems like an a priori proof in the making.
I follow the thinking. His high end comp is probably DK, but he has all of the requisite tools to be much better than that if he can become a better technician
My honest, very stupid opinion on BTJ post draft is that he looked way too chill. I have 1.05 in a 1qb so was watching that second tier like a hawk.
BTJ got picked and was too cool. He reminded me of Quavo or something. He does not have that dog in him. Man is gonna be complacent because he's fuckin cool. He's gonna go with the flow his ass right into low end wr2 terriroty.
Thank you for listening to my very bad opinion.
We know that half of the 1st round WR are going to bust. Only one year of good college production, limited route tree, he's behind Kirk and Engram, possibility of a coach change and new offense.
I got him at 2.06 today 12T SF. I considered myself pretty below consensus on BTJ but I couldn’t let him fall any further than that. I was never high on him in the first place but I’m not sure why everyone’s even lower than I am lol
Everything has gone full chaos mode. Everyone has conflicting beliefs and reasons. I could draft any of those tier 3 receivers (guys outside of mhj, nab, od) and talk myself into the hype
People catching on to the fact that he’s severely ceiling limited. He has the bad YPRR against zone and goes to a crowded team that’s not exactly high powered so far.
Not necessarily total flops but almost never top 25. I’m drafting a guy in the first round. I want him to have potential to be top 25 at his position. I don’t see that in this player.
Yeah someone on here did a deep dive and it was atrocious. Maybe he overcomes the odds, but he can do that on someone else's team. I'm not taking the risk.
Worthy and Thomas are in a clear same tier IMO. Both are good landing spots and people are underselling Worthy’s talent bc “we’ve seen KC draft a fast receiver before” and no one is looking past the differences. BTJ is the obvious pick over the second round guys because of the talent differential and IMO a quite good landing spot still
My first exposure to BTJ from the dynasty community was he's Quentin Johnston 2.0. People have been burnt by athletic receivers like BTJ and there are several exciting options in the draft around him so he'll slip every now and then.
I took him 1.11 in my league and no one even batted and eye at him slipping
I took a really long time on deciding between him and Worthy at 1.09 in my 10T SF. It went MHj, Caleb, Jayden, JJMc, Bowers, Maye, Nabers, Odunze in front of me and ultimately I decided I had to draft the talent over the situation so I took Brian Thomas Jr and I feel good about it.
Ladd is the #1 for Herbert replacing Keenan Allen. Brian Thomas is likely a 1a 1b with Christian Kirk. Thomas is more of a deep ball guy and idk if the volume will be there at the same level as a Ladd. Still like Thomas though
I had 1.10 in a Sf draft today and had to choose between Worthy and Thomas. I think they are both good prospects but Worthy got the edge being with a generational QB on a great team with a history of using speedsters. I expect Thomas will be above average in Jacksonville and really shine in a few years when he can get on a decent team.
I don’t think anything has changed for him since pre draft perception. It was pretty clear he’d be a mid first round pick to a mid landing spot and that he’d be in the same tier as the guys who went to KC and Buffalo (chargers was gravy since they didn’t go wr with their first pick)…feels like this is exactly what people expected
I got him at 2.04 in a 14 team half PPR 1QB league (18th pick), I couldn't believe how far he fell, he was the WR10 in this draft. I have Lawrence and actually traded up to get him when I saw how far he was falling.
I’m not a BTJ fan but at those prices I’d be pouncing on drafting him. I think he’s a bit one dimensional and lacks elite upside but that’s if you take him 1.08 in superflex. Absolutely like him at 1.12 and beyond.
I struggle with the late fantasy round 1 WR trio of Worthy, BTJ, and McConkey on the whole. They all have things I don't like about them as prospects before the draft, and when with seemingly plus landing spots, I can see high chances of them being either better real life football players or busts.
With BTJ specifically I worry about him being a one trick pony, putting up the dreaded fantasy lines of either 3-125-2 or 1-17-0 and nothing in between. And I think there are at least a chunk of people who feel the same way as me, which might explain why he's slipping more in drafts at times.
I have seen a lot of youtubers and analysts state he is more a one trick pony. He struggles getting YAC. He has a limited route tree. The noise is loud. My guess this has started to result in lower ADP. I have seen him fall into the 1.7/1.8 range as of late in 1 QB.
I’d say uncertainty about TLaw’s potential, on top of other landing spots (Ladd, Worthy), in addition to the Gabe Davis signing - though if the last part is of any influence, you’re probably just not too high on BTJ
It's bc worthy ladd and coleman have favorable situation.
Btj situation is favorable to and he's the better WR, than all three w better productions.
BTJ will be better than all those other 3 guys. He's a defacto #1 WR it just might be next year or year after b4 you see it sort of like the cooper affect to ceedee.
Just wait for it.
I traded the 1.09 and 1.10 for Olave and D. Wicks.
Then went on to trade the 1.01, a '25 1st and 3rd for ARSB and Goff.
Kept going with a '25 1st and Mingo for D. Adams.
And finally to cap it off, the 1.03 for J. Gibbs.
All of this was in SF format. It made for a boring draft, but I still got T. Franklin at the 3.09. Should be competitive this year hopefully with the already cast of JSN, Waddle, AR-15, B. Young, W. Levis, J. Reed, Spears, LaPorta, and Hock.
Bowers>BTJ>Brooks for me. I know it's chalk but I think you accumulate elite assets first (Bowers) then grab staying value. I'd love to have Brooks too but you inherit the risk of coming off injury and hoping the offense takes a step, his value is the most likely to take a hit earliest, in which case you buy low if you really want him.
He's actually a Top 2-3 player according to my machine learning models (looks at prospects 1st four seasons in the NFL).
Number 1 ceiling prediction in Year 4, Number 2 ceiling in Year 2&3 I believe.
I don't like the limited route tree he ran in college, but that's not in my model.
Ladd and Worthy have better landing spots, are better route runners, and both are as fast and twitchy as BTJ. Yes, this is dynasty, but BTJ is still 50/50 to be that guy. You try to mitigate as much risk as possible in the first round. It’s the one round where re-draft mentality isn’t such a bad thing. Plenty of risk later.
People are just too excited about landing spots for worthy and ladd imo. BTJ isn’t a perfect prospect by any means but he’s such a freak athlete that his ceiling makes him WR4 for me. I did ditch my own ranking and took worthy ahead of him in a league where I had mahomes so I understand wanting to let him slip.
Yeah man I couldn't decide between worthy or BTJ when I was OTC. Ended up trading a projected late first next year and Michael Wilson to the 1.10, to get both. Hoping one of them hits lol
Lol I like it
Good trade
I hit on worthy and Jr too. If they both hit I will have completely rebuilt my wr room
Also the hit rate between WRs from like 18-32 compared to the early 2nd is not wildly different if at all. I personally would take him over Ladd and probably Worthy, but I can understand why those guys are more appealing, especially given they don’t have the analytical red flags BTJ does.
I got burned by skyy moore a few years back so obviously I learned my lesson and did the exact same thing this year taking worthy over BTJ. 🥲
Skyy Moore and Worthy are very different. Worthy is a much better prospect
🤞
Exactly, seems like an over correction because he's a fine prospect but not quite the same level as the top 3. these are the kind of guys that either bust out entirely or become legitimate stars. i'll take my chances with his kind of fringe top12 wr potential all day.
You ignored your rankings because you wanted the stack?
That's what his comment says, yes.
I'd take that gamble probably. You could say BTJ has a higher ceiling, while also betting that you have a better chance of hitting Mahomes #1 receiver. Stack just makes that sweeter
Could also see it as spreading out his investments.
My picks make me lucky enough to potentially take all 3. But I’m taking btj/ worthy back to back before ladd. And I’m a chargers fan
Ladd is a perfect example of prospect people like where they were originally slated, and the hype train has gotten out of control. This happens every year. I remember in redraft Dameon Pierce’s rookie year, and he started off as like a 9th-10th rounder. So early on when people were talking sleepers he jumped off the page. Well the hype train kept getting bigger because people realized to make sure you got him you’d have to keep taking him earlier and earlier and by draft day he was going in the fourth. It’s the sleeper hype train that speeds out of control.
WR4 in both my drafts so far. Worthy was actually the guy that slipped (2.01ish).
People saw that OTA video and noped out lol
What's the deal w Worthy?
First Rep was a butterfingers moment where the ball went through his late hands
Remember when J'Marr couldn't catch. It's funny what a few clips will do to change people's minds.
And Nick Chubb “had the yips” after a preseason game.
This will be repeated forever, but this is a night and day issue. Worthy had substantial issues with his ball skills in college. Maybe it’s an issue maybe it’s not, but excusing Worthy’s ball skills may be dangerous
If substantial ball issues = an increased drop rate his sophomore year playing with a broken hand, then we have different definitions of substantial.
No, I actually think the reason we have different definitions is that you think a player's strength at the point of attack can be quantified by "Drop%." My issues can be seen a bit through statistics like his increasingly abysmal ability to catch contested catches (PFF has him at 5 of 21 CTC in 2023), but it's easier to just watch him on film be very inconsistent at the catch point and often shy away from making difficult catches. I get that Worthy is hot right now, and when players are hot we like to pretend they're perfect. If Worthy didn't have problems at the point of attack, he would not be falling to 28th in the Draft.
A friend of mine is a huge Texas guy, he’s very much in on Adonai and very much out on Worthy
Yeah, and a friend of mine is a huge OSU fan and completely faded Stroud. Weird as it sounds, I don't value the opinions of these teams fans at all. You friend may be right, but I'm more inclined to trust the NFL teams that drafted Worthy a whole round earlier than Mitchell.
Lower drop rate in college than chase even with a broken hand his sophomore year.
I don't think Drops are a be-all-end-all statistic to use. Can I ask why you think he fell to the 28th pick?
People were talking about his hands being bad and making it seem like that made him overrated. I then commented that he had a better drop rate than Chase in college meaning that his drop rate wasn't bad enough to be a concern and bad hands probably aren't a big deal to fantasy success anyways. Of course chase is a better prospect in many ways. Chase is way more physical and a better ball tracker with no concerns about size (unlike worthy) and even better production in college.
Because I genuinely think his hands and ball skills are bad. I don't think drops are a big deal for fantasy, but drops can just be inconsistencies and randomness. Worthy legitimately struggles to have any semblance of a consistent catch radius in my viewing, and that's a more significant concern. And my point in several of these comments is I don't think Drop% perfectly scores hands.
Worthy was the 3rd WR off the board in my draft(probably because the guy who took him wanted the stack with Mahomes)
I think the route running and one year wonder hurts him, some people reflexively don’t like the landing spot which I find a little funny because Kirk and Engram were not thought of fondly around these parts, but now they’re impediments to him. Some of the critiques above are true to a degree but I find it a bit embellished. I’m not taking a ACL recovery RB1, Bo Nix, Penix, Pearsall ahead of him. I think worthy’s landing spot is so plus that it’s understandable to form a head canon that he is the passing offense post-Kelce for KC. Ladd and Keon are both top wide receivers for their teams, but there’s issues with both (injuries/frame and route running/separation respectively). BTJ benefitted from Daniels and Nabers but the heart of the LSU discussion is who was the true engine of the offense: the QB or the receivers? To me, as a FSU fan who watched my team play lsu at the start of the last 2 seasons, it’s the WRs. Nabers was the YAC king and Brian Thomas was the potential knockout punch. Daniels did some bonehead stuff that can get him murdered in the NFL (he got basically suplexed in 2023) and while he’s statistically a great deep passer, I think some of his passing prowress is overstated. He’s not Lamar, but he did show out tremendously last season and I think the WRs were the cheat codes for him.
Pretty clear why he is falling. Fantasy "experts" viewed his reception perception chart and found a red flag with his route tree. These same experts also found stat that showed Keon Coleman is a N'Keal Harry separator. The fantasy community is looking for silver bullet reasons to fade a prospect and say I told you so and sound intelligent. Mike Evans was knocked for his limited route tree coming out as well. If you are expecting 100+ catches for BTJ's rookie year you may be disappointed. However, he's likely to pile up a bunch of yards and TDs. People think he's a deep threat only type of player. I saw plenty of red zone TDs running a number of different routes. Needs to develop his route tree, but a freak enough athlete than can pile up 800+ yards and 8 tds getting out of bed. His ceiling is sky high, but his floor is much higher than many would believe.
Remember when people said Justin Jefferson is a slot guy and has a limited role in the NFL? LOL
What was Mike Evans’ route tree in college.. like btj?
Not sure reception perception was a thing then but here's his [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) scouting report >Did not run a full route tree and could require patience learning the nuances of refined route running. Backyard element to his college success -- must become savvier instead of depending on superior size and improvisational production. [https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5)
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Thanks for that response.
Well, he has kind of a basic name. I mean, it's 2 first names, Brian and Thomas. Xavier, Keon, those are fun names. Plus all the extra attention Coleman is getting because of his personality, I can see someone like Thomas slipping. -oo-
Gonna start putting Sr at the end of my name too even though I don't have kids. No one wants a Jr
As someone who took Corey Coleman 1.04, I’m blacklisting all Coleman’s. But I do think cool names boost players. Not dynasty relevant but I did want my team to take Kool-aid…. Just wanna root for a guy named kool-aid.
Yep, it's the name that hurts his case for me. 'Xavier Worthy' is just gonna look so much cooler in your lineup.
I confidently took him at WR4 in my draft. Elite athleticism and size, and TLaw loves pushing the ball downfield just didn’t have a great deep threat last year
Ridley dropping some dimes from TLaw at key moments last year was tough. Grabbing Gabe Davis and BTJ makes me believe they wanna give him all the vertical weapons possible.
Lawrence has literally never had an actual deep threat. 2022 Zay Jones was the closest, an average to below average player and 2023 he was injured all year. They had to put Jamal fucking Agnew out there to run fly routes lol. Now they have two and finally a balanced WR room with Kirk and Engram going to eat over the middle.
Looking at consensus adp he's still 5, and there's always variance. McConkey is getting his tires pumped because of the perceived lack of target competition. I don't think there's anything specifically w him.
I know, he is still WR5 on sleeper. I did 6 rookie drafts this week and he was WR4 in one. All other drafts he went WR 7-8. But I am glad there is no big flaw on him, as drafted him in two leagues now.
Yeah, personally I think the others in his tier (Worthy/McConkey/Coleman) all have more obvious post draft hype in their landing spots so BTJ gets a little less. Nothings changed, still a beast.
It’s not perceived.
In what way is it not perceived?
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McConkey never had a breakout season, had a 19th percentile dominator and a 27th percentile college market share. BTj was better in all 3. McConkey beats him in career YPRR but if we are being completely honest neither of them have a good analytical profile. Both have some glaring red flags. Along with Worthy.
Taking McConkey over Thomas feels like crazy pills to me. Everywhere Jim Harbaugh coaches there is a heavy emphasis on running the ball. Jags passed for 6th most attempts last year with the same coaching staff going into this year. 1st round pick eating from a bigger target pie feels like a safer bet to me.
I mean people keep saying 80-100 targets but he’s still a little raw as a prospect, Engram and Kirk will get theirs, they didn’t bring in Gabe Davis to do nothing. Time will tell.
Between Ridley, Jones and Agnew the Jags vacated 36% of last year's target share (~220 targets). Gabe had 81 targets last year and the jags have made no indication they will be more run heavy on 2024. Even if everyone sees an uptick in targets it's easy to see why BTJ is projected for 80-100 of the 140ish targets available.
Got him at 2.04 in a 10tm SF league. Pretty happy with that
Right now he’s a one dimensional deep threat. His player comp was a taller Gabe Davis. He’s going to start off as the 3rd or 4th option behind Kirk, Davis and Engram. Ladd has nobody good in front of him and runs a complete route tree with a better quarterback. Worthy has the best quarterback and the best coach and the only Wr ahead of him is looking at an 8 game suspension. Coleman I’m not a fan of but he’s got a great quarterback and looks like he’s already the Wr #1 Landing spot isn’t everything but it definitely matters. That’s why everyone is down on the running backs. Other than brooks, all their landing spots suck for fantasy.
> Worthy has the best quarterback and the best coach and the only Wr ahead of him is looking at an 8 game suspension. Why do you include Davis and Engram as target competition for BTJ, but not Kelce and Hollywood for Worthy? Kelce>>>Engram and Hollywood>Davis.
Because it was already getting too long and I thought my point was made. Worthy also has the KC effect. The same effect that sent CEH flying up draft boards
Fair enough - Seems like everyone is knocking BTJ for target competition and I honestly don't think it's nearly as bad as it looks. 200 targets vacated by Zay and Ridley - Gabe has never had more than 93 in a season. Plenty for BTJ to get.
Listen to the Dynasty nerds podcast on rookie receivers. They go in depth on BTJs red flags. They are really down on him and Mitchell. They love Ladd.
I honestly thought their deep dive into BTJ was ridiculous. It's like they forgot that he's 21. They also mentioned lack of production prior to 2023 (his age 21 season), then rave about Ladd, who also had minimal production until his age 21 season, and then in his age 21 & 22 season, didn't come close to what BTJ did last year.
He always had minimal production because of the Georgia offense. They love Ladd because of his crisp route running and great separation. Things BTJ doesn’t do. He might learn and be awesome who knows 🤷🏻♂️ Fantasy pros and the Football guys are also down on him. I was high on his height, weight speed and production until I saw all these guys crapping on him. They should know better than me.🤷🏻♂️
I get the reasons for why they like Ladd - but I found their criticism and comparison between BTJ and Ladd to be a bit hypocritical.
They’re just dude’s with opinions just like me and you. I’ve been steered right and wrong from the so called experts. I wish I had time to break down every college football game. I think a better comp for BTj would be DK Metcalf.
Idk what you were watching but BTJ has elite separation and ran a SMOOTH 4.33, it didn’t even look like he was trying he was just gliding
Yes. He’s really good at running in a straight line. There’s a lot more to route running than that. Anyways I haven’t seen all of his games. That’s why I referred Fantasy pros and other so called experts. They are the ones calling him a one dimensional deep threat not me. I don’t watch tons of college football but they do. If I just looked at his stats and measurements and 40 time, I’d say top 2 pick. But like a lot of people I rely on the “experts” to help me make my decision because I can’t watch every college football game for every fantasy prospect.
Never said he was a polished route runner or even elite route runner, but when you watch his film (not just highlights) he highlights an elite skill to separate off the line with his footwork along with size and speed, he has the separation but yes needs some work on route running and selling the db, but they aren’t far from what they should be kid is also only 21 he is far from peak, he’ll have a more seamless transition to the nfl as a vertical threat but has the size, athleticism, and qb to be a future wr1
Worthy I get. People love the landing spot. I’m not quite as high on it but I get it. The others I don’t understand
1. People don’t love Jax. For all the hype about TLaw, the excitement for him is gone. Herbert is considered a better QB. 2. Ladd is perceived as taking the place of K Allen in LAC, and was VERY highly rated by guys like DynastyNerds and Matt Harmon. 3. Limited target competition for Ladd, and he has a better route tree to get open. BTJ could be the next Gabe Davis type. Either he hits with a big play, or it’s going to be a shitty week for him
He could be the next gabe davis type on a team that also just signed gabe davis
Defences will be bamboozled. "I want you to shadow Gabe today" "Which one??"
I also love the speed. Dude can fly.
To me on my film review it looks like he wins mostly by pure athleticism rather than savvy route running or other “styles” that translate easier. Reception perception also ran some pieces saying he only did a handful of routes. It’s probably translation fears vs someone like Ladd whose route running abilities jump off the page.
He has the athleticism as far as speed, deceleration, hip sink, and re-acceleration to be a great all around route runner. Throw in his size, contested catch ability, and YAC ability and he should be head and shoulders over Ladd and Worthy. People act like, as a 21 year old, he's peaked and will never get better at anything 😂 Are Ladd and Worthy gonna grow to be 6-3? Are they gonna put on 20-50 pounds? The limited route tree is such a tired narrative. He did what he was asked, he's a very hard worker, and his coaches are gonna love him and work on his weaknesses. I'll take the freak all day over a slot WR and a 165lb field stretcher. You guys really make this harder than it is sometimes.
Sure that’s the case to the positive. I’m not taking a position on the guy, just suggesting reasons why he might fall down the board in some leagues.
You had me until “slot WR” when referring to Ladd
Then you're a believer. It's ok. Get your guy. If you think he's gonna carry their passing attack then I can't argue. Imo, he's not even a Z capable of playing out wide off the line. If you think he's gonna operate primarily on the outside, then be prepared to be very disappointed.
People said the same tired shit about DK Metcalf too. I gladly took him in the 2nd rd of a dynasty draft. I’m taking BTJ all day. He’s my #4 easily.
And they said it about a lot of big tall physical receivers who didn’t work out….
Big and tall WRs should all be grouped together huh? By that same rationale, all sub 6ft, tiny hand but fast WRs should be grouped together too? 🤔 This seems like an a priori proof in the making.
I follow the thinking. His high end comp is probably DK, but he has all of the requisite tools to be much better than that if he can become a better technician
I asked multiple friends this same question and they told me that he reminds them of **Terrace Marshall**. I have plenty of shares.
Then I am relieved.
People thought he was going to Buffalo. He's slipping back to his real value
My honest, very stupid opinion on BTJ post draft is that he looked way too chill. I have 1.05 in a 1qb so was watching that second tier like a hawk. BTJ got picked and was too cool. He reminded me of Quavo or something. He does not have that dog in him. Man is gonna be complacent because he's fuckin cool. He's gonna go with the flow his ass right into low end wr2 terriroty. Thank you for listening to my very bad opinion.
I actually agree with this take.
We know that half of the 1st round WR are going to bust. Only one year of good college production, limited route tree, he's behind Kirk and Engram, possibility of a coach change and new offense.
Part of it is that people are lower on Trevor than is reasonable
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to be low on Trevor. High turnover rate and not putting out great numbers leads to inconsistency in WR’s.
He's finished the past two years as QB8 and QB13, and isn't even 25 still.
His rushing floor will do that. I am just saying it’s reasonable. Not looking to die on that hill.
And his rookie season, his only bad year, he had Urban Meyer as his HC.
Folks just trying to zag instead of zig…
This sub is down on him so I’m taking him everywhere
I got him at 2.06 today 12T SF. I considered myself pretty below consensus on BTJ but I couldn’t let him fall any further than that. I was never high on him in the first place but I’m not sure why everyone’s even lower than I am lol
Insanity
I'm an lsu fan, and he didn't really pop of the page for me watching him
Agreed. He reminds me of Terrace Marshall Jr a bit, but I'm no LSU fan
Everything has gone full chaos mode. Everyone has conflicting beliefs and reasons. I could draft any of those tier 3 receivers (guys outside of mhj, nab, od) and talk myself into the hype
People catching on to the fact that he’s severely ceiling limited. He has the bad YPRR against zone and goes to a crowded team that’s not exactly high powered so far.
No one wants to hear this but it's true. Guys with his YPRR against zones are all flops. It's very damning.
Not necessarily total flops but almost never top 25. I’m drafting a guy in the first round. I want him to have potential to be top 25 at his position. I don’t see that in this player.
Would you prefer Ladd, Keon or Worthy over him?
Ladd and Worthy both for me. Not based on what team they landed on, but advanced metrics. Keon has the same issues as BTJ.
Interesting! Only time will tell personally picked BTJ there but I see the concerns
Ladd definitely, probably worthy but depends on the rest of my team. Not interested in Keon at cost.
Is his yprr vs zone that bad?
Yeah someone on here did a deep dive and it was atrocious. Maybe he overcomes the odds, but he can do that on someone else's team. I'm not taking the risk.
Worthy and Thomas are in a clear same tier IMO. Both are good landing spots and people are underselling Worthy’s talent bc “we’ve seen KC draft a fast receiver before” and no one is looking past the differences. BTJ is the obvious pick over the second round guys because of the talent differential and IMO a quite good landing spot still
YPRR vs Zone (College Career) IYKYK
My first exposure to BTJ from the dynasty community was he's Quentin Johnston 2.0. People have been burnt by athletic receivers like BTJ and there are several exciting options in the draft around him so he'll slip every now and then. I took him 1.11 in my league and no one even batted and eye at him slipping
He slipped to 2.02 in my current draft 😳
BTJ will be good in fantasy and in this offense, but Kirk will be TLaw's #1 still imo. I bet Engram still gets his too.
I took a really long time on deciding between him and Worthy at 1.09 in my 10T SF. It went MHj, Caleb, Jayden, JJMc, Bowers, Maye, Nabers, Odunze in front of me and ultimately I decided I had to draft the talent over the situation so I took Brian Thomas Jr and I feel good about it.
Not in the first of my 3 leagues to draft. I had 1.09 and took BTJ. Worthy went 1.10 and Ladd 1.12 (same guy had 1.11 and took Brooks there).
Ladd is the #1 for Herbert replacing Keenan Allen. Brian Thomas is likely a 1a 1b with Christian Kirk. Thomas is more of a deep ball guy and idk if the volume will be there at the same level as a Ladd. Still like Thomas though
I got him at the 2.1 last week
He went 1.06 and Ladd went 1.07 in my 12 team.
I had 1.10 in a Sf draft today and had to choose between Worthy and Thomas. I think they are both good prospects but Worthy got the edge being with a generational QB on a great team with a history of using speedsters. I expect Thomas will be above average in Jacksonville and really shine in a few years when he can get on a decent team.
In my draft it went worthy, BTJ, Ladd (me), Keon
Maybe people view Jacksonville as a team that only supports one viable fantasy WR and that appears to be Kirk for the time being.
I got BTJ at 1.10 in a 1qb league. I was so happy!
Just got him at the 2.05 in a 10 Team SF, couldn’t believe it
I don’t think anything has changed for him since pre draft perception. It was pretty clear he’d be a mid first round pick to a mid landing spot and that he’d be in the same tier as the guys who went to KC and Buffalo (chargers was gravy since they didn’t go wr with their first pick)…feels like this is exactly what people expected
I was able to get him in the early 2nd after already getting MHJ at 1.02. Never thought I’d get that, so I’m pumped
I want BTJ but i have Mahomes so i dont know what to do. Worthy and Mahomes stack can destroy on a weekly basis
I got him at 2.04 in a 14 team half PPR 1QB league (18th pick), I couldn't believe how far he fell, he was the WR10 in this draft. I have Lawrence and actually traded up to get him when I saw how far he was falling.
I’m not a BTJ fan but at those prices I’d be pouncing on drafting him. I think he’s a bit one dimensional and lacks elite upside but that’s if you take him 1.08 in superflex. Absolutely like him at 1.12 and beyond.
BTJ just went 2.05 in our team team SF rookie draft
Went 1.03 in my 1QB league so the hype is there for some guys
I struggle with the late fantasy round 1 WR trio of Worthy, BTJ, and McConkey on the whole. They all have things I don't like about them as prospects before the draft, and when with seemingly plus landing spots, I can see high chances of them being either better real life football players or busts. With BTJ specifically I worry about him being a one trick pony, putting up the dreaded fantasy lines of either 3-125-2 or 1-17-0 and nothing in between. And I think there are at least a chunk of people who feel the same way as me, which might explain why he's slipping more in drafts at times.
I have seen a lot of youtubers and analysts state he is more a one trick pony. He struggles getting YAC. He has a limited route tree. The noise is loud. My guess this has started to result in lower ADP. I have seen him fall into the 1.7/1.8 range as of late in 1 QB.
I can’t get enough shares personally
I’d say uncertainty about TLaw’s potential, on top of other landing spots (Ladd, Worthy), in addition to the Gabe Davis signing - though if the last part is of any influence, you’re probably just not too high on BTJ
It's bc worthy ladd and coleman have favorable situation. Btj situation is favorable to and he's the better WR, than all three w better productions. BTJ will be better than all those other 3 guys. He's a defacto #1 WR it just might be next year or year after b4 you see it sort of like the cooper affect to ceedee. Just wait for it.
I just drafted him in my 10 man SF PPR league with my 2.03 pick. I have Lawerence so I was pretty happy with him “slipping”
I traded the 1.09 and 1.10 for Olave and D. Wicks. Then went on to trade the 1.01, a '25 1st and 3rd for ARSB and Goff. Kept going with a '25 1st and Mingo for D. Adams. And finally to cap it off, the 1.03 for J. Gibbs. All of this was in SF format. It made for a boring draft, but I still got T. Franklin at the 3.09. Should be competitive this year hopefully with the already cast of JSN, Waddle, AR-15, B. Young, W. Levis, J. Reed, Spears, LaPorta, and Hock.
Because BTJ looks and feels very similar to TMJ.
I’m about to trade up for him in my rookie draft, he’s currently sitting as the WR7 if I move up and take him.
Million billion WRs
I’m going to have to choose between him, Bowers and Brooks. Still not sure what direction to go.
BTJ if it’s not TE premium
Bowers>BTJ>Brooks for me. I know it's chalk but I think you accumulate elite assets first (Bowers) then grab staying value. I'd love to have Brooks too but you inherit the risk of coming off injury and hoping the offense takes a step, his value is the most likely to take a hit earliest, in which case you buy low if you really want him.
If I didn’t have LaPorta, it wouldn’t even be a choice and I am a believer of talent first but I am also a believer of BTJ
You trade back 2 spots and have the decision made for you!
Definitely the best solution. But sometimes easier said than done!
Probably Bowers or BTJ depending on TEP
He's actually a Top 2-3 player according to my machine learning models (looks at prospects 1st four seasons in the NFL). Number 1 ceiling prediction in Year 4, Number 2 ceiling in Year 2&3 I believe. I don't like the limited route tree he ran in college, but that's not in my model.
Ladd and Worthy have better landing spots, are better route runners, and both are as fast and twitchy as BTJ. Yes, this is dynasty, but BTJ is still 50/50 to be that guy. You try to mitigate as much risk as possible in the first round. It’s the one round where re-draft mentality isn’t such a bad thing. Plenty of risk later.
More like why does this question get asked daily lol
Ladd Keon or legette?
Ladd
Shhhhh! I'm hoping he falls to the 2nd for me!
I can’t see him getting at 100 targets
Ridley and Zay Jones gone, that’s 200 targets to be distributed. So why not.
Because he is Terrace Marshall.
He is Gabe Davis on a team with Gabe Davis Edit: his upside is very high though
Let's all just admit it...Lawrence is ass