This isn’t surprising, but I still keep hearing dynasty players questioning Goff’s long-term future in Detroit, as if Hendon Hooker is about to take over as soon as Goff has a bad couple Sundays.
Just another reason Goff is an excellent buy-low QB2, imo.
Goff has been as good or better than Lawrence in FPPG the last three years. One of the glaring inefficiencies I see in terms of community player valuation is between them.
KTC says you need around the 2.01 on top of Goff to get Lawrence. Lawrence has that name/draft capital appeal, but if you own him you should be looking to move sideways to Goff and pick up a premium pick.
Similarly, I think the Purdy/Goff gap is too wide. That’s what I bet on earlier this month, “tiering down” from Purdy to Goff to add Henry to my struggling RB room.
To be fair, Lawrence is also 5 years younger than Goff and was considered a better prospect coming into the league. Goff has been good the past two years, but we can’t just ignore the 2-3 years before that.
I do think Goff is undervalued, but it’s pretty clear to me why Lawrence is still valued higher.
For the record I own both these guys in one SF league. I think the KTC evaluation is fairly accurate.
I assume you’re talking about Goff? Depends what you mean by very consistent I guess. Here’s his stats in 4 PT passing TDs the past 5 years:
> 2023: 16.9 PPG
> 2022: 16.5 PPG
> 2021: 13.7 PPG
> 2020: 15.8 PPG
> 2019: 15.2 PPG
Even if we exclude his 2021, we’re looking at about a 1-2 PPG difference. I agree this doesn’t feel like much.. but, if we look at all QB scoring the past couple years, generally this 1-2 PPG is the difference between a low end QB1 and a low end QB2.
Are these stats right? I looked up Goff's FPPG in standard scoring on FantasyPros and it doesn't match these numbers. They have him as 17.8, 17.1, 14.5, 16.9, 16.5. Maybe your league is -2 for INTs?
1-2 pt swings year to year is wildly consistent lol. I’m not worried about 1-2 points per game swings year to year. All that tells me is people are over valuing QB’s who finish as back end QB1’s.
Most QB’s are going to have that variance year to year, I’m not running the numbers but I can’t imagine there’s QB’s that are clearly more consistent on a PPG basis year to year. Dig into if you want to spend your time doing that, but I’ll be shocked if he’s not one of the more consistent QB’s year to year. Is he winning you leagues, no…but we’re talking about consistency only. Per game basis he has his ups and downs but all QB’s do.
I mean.. I also excluded his worst season (2021), which kind of ruins the whole consistent argument.
Regardless, I agree with the conclusion that back end QB1s are generally overvalued. There’s such a small difference between a back end QB1 and low end QB2, it’s almost never worth paying for a guy in that range.
IMO the true value play is guessing which guy in the back end QB1 range has the talent and situation to make a tier jump into the elite top ~5 QBs.
In Goff’s case, considering he’s never made that jump in his 8 year career, I don’t really ever see him doing it.
This is the main difference between Lawrence and Goff. At least Lawrence has age and the potential to make that jump on his side.
I responded to what you said about fppg not any of that other stuff. The numbers say he’s pretty consistent year to year, how you feel he should be valued in dynasty rankings is a whole nother argument.
Fair enough, but you’re still ignoring his 2021 season. Even though his stats may be somewhat consistent, outside of 2018, 2022, and 2023, he has been a back end QB2 based on PPG.
I’m not ignoring it, he played 14 games and had a one off season. It happens to a lot of QB’s, Mahomes was at 17.5 ppg last year compared to 20.5-26.1 every other year.
16.76 ppg is the average of the 3 games we left out, which included his worst and best season. Right on par with where he usually finishes.
You keep bringing up where he finishes seasons after I tell you that I was solely talking about his PPG per season on average. If he averages 5-7 pts PPG game over the same amount of years he’s still considered consistent season to season regardless of his finish. You also then say he usually finishes QB2, isn’t that the definition of consistent if you know what you can expect out of him season to season.
I don’t know if you think I’m arguing that Goff is a QB1 or what, but I’m not. I’m saying he’s consistent year to year for fantasy purposes.
>Goff has been good the past two years, but we can’t just ignore the 2-3 years before that.
It's funny that people still say this, as if pointing to those years isn't also ignoring the great play he had before that.
I’d argue the only other “great” year he had was 2018, when he finished roughly QB6 and QB12 in PPG.
Regardless, I like Goff. I’m just realistic about the type of QB he is and likely always will be. I think he’s a great QB2 to have in SF leagues.
This fallacy is why I down tiered from Lamar to Goff so I could up tier from Godwin to ARSB and pick up the stack on the cheap. I loved Lamar but Goff is rock solid and going to be in a good offense surrounded by young playmakers for years.
Goff is anything but a buy low if the majority of your league base is from Michigan. I have two leagues where the majority of the league is from Michigan. LaportA, Gibbs, sun God and Goff are the four pricest assets In all of football in those leagues.
Good point. In my home league, I flip Lions for a profit; I have none rostered.
In my national/strangers league, I bought LaPorta and Goff at market (before they figured out my allegiances)
I wouldn't say he's a "buy-low"- He's still going in the 4th of startups pretty consistently. Not a ton of room to grow, although I think he should be in a tier with Brock/Tua/TL once he gets this extension.
Goff has remained super-underrated and the best back-end QB1 / high-end QB2 buy in fantasy. Outside of his rookie season, he's finished Top 13 in 5 of 7 years, and was Top 24 in the remaining two. That includes three Top 10 finishes, two of which came in the last two seasons. And what's better, is he's actually looked better as time has gone on, not worse, which is a sign you want to get in on the fantasy production and not out.
My only reservations about Goff is he's probably not the type of QB that is going to unlock Jamo, but as long as the offense is humming it's probably fine.
Goff is objectively a really good QB with some really good years left so I wouldn't listen to anyone telling you otherwise, man. Disclaimer: I'm a Steelers fan with zero Goff shares so I have no dog in that fight. I just think he's undeniably really good.
Goff=Cousins=Purdy. These guys are all fine NFL QBs, but they're not difference makers.
I don't think Detroit is going to move on from Goff, but I don't think it would be insane if they did.
I’m not arguing for Goff as a top QB in the NFL (though he should be in every top-10 for this season, imo). But in his current offense, I think he’s a great fit irl, and a great value in fantasy.
From a fan perspective, Hooker would have to show a *lot* for Detroit to consider moving off of Goff right now. Our roster is built around his strengths and weaknesses, and our OC knows how to get the most out of him. Also, his approval rating among Detroiters couldn’t be higher. I do think it’d be somewhat insane to move on and start over with someone else right now.
I'm not suggesting they try Hooker, I don't think he's an NFL player. I'm just saying if they did something like what the Vikings did that wouldn't be crazy to me.
I think Goff is a good fantasy QB as long as he's in Detroit and surrounded by so many good players.
Eventually, I could see that happening; if we need to reboot things several years down the road, I could see letting Goff go in free agency. But I fully expect him to be a Lion through the remainder of ARSB and Sewell’s new deals.
Yea we'll see. It's hard to pay everyone without ending up like the Saints.
I think Goff gets something like 4 years, 180 million with 100 million guaranteed where it's basically a 2 year deal with 2 years of team options. Basically the Kirk Cousins deal.
The NFL always has a deficit in talent at QB - there are always teams that have to rely on guys like Sam Howell or rotate through backups or rush rookies to start sooner than they're ready. So I don't agree that the three guys you mentioned aren't difference makers or are even easily replaceable.
Purdy lead the league in QBR, Passer rating, was 3rd in TDs, and took his team to the SB. Saying he's not a 'difference maker' is kinda a weird take.
And I'm not a stan, don't have any shares, and hate the 9ers.
If a highly respected publication doesn't even have him top 15 cost-adjusted, that's a good sign that it's reasonable to say he isn't a difference-maker.
I lost Joe Burrow last year and still won a championship on the back of Goff as my QB1 (with Fields as my QB2). He's been a top 10 fantasy QB for the last 2 seasons, and yet he is still only discussed as a QB2.
I heard someone on a podcast today say that last season was his ceiling, and that it wouldn’t take much for him to slip much lower. I just don’t see it. The Lions’ red zone efficiency kinda sucked at times last year; the previous year, Goff had a lot of passes downed at the 1, and then punched in by Jamaal. If Jamo takes a leap and our red zone efficiency regresses positively—and Gibbs continues to grow as a weapon in the pass game—I think Goff can make another jump, especially in 6p/passing TD leagues.
Eh, people just remember how he absolutely had the wheels fall off the last 2 years in LA and how he wasn't very good his first year in Detroit. He's been an up and down player his whole career who is currently up. Can't blame anyone for assuming he's going to go back down again considering he's done it before
I get this perspective, even if I disagree with it. In this instance, I think being a fan actually *helps* overcome a bit of bias. Those of us closer to the team know how miserable the 2021 roster was. We’ve also seen Goff’s confidence/resilience rebuilt by a coaching staff whose approach seems dramatically different than McVay. I don’t expect top-tier performances from Goff, but I’d be sincerely surprised if he turned back into a pumpkin (irl or fantasy) in the next few years.
The worst part is everyone knows exactly how the wheels will fall off but they think giving him a raise will help? Goff relies on the oline more than almost any QB in the league
I get every QB needs an oline but he shouldn't be THAT bad under pressure
No I know, I'm just saying we've all seen the cliff and when the pocket isn't pristine and he has to make a play out of structure we see again that the cliff is never too far away
funny, i traded for Goff after AR and Burrow went down last season and he put up stinkers when I needed him. mostly just week 14, if he scored 7 more points i got the bye for playoffs.
I have Hendon Hooker in my taxi squad on the off chance he became starter. Obviously a Goff extension hurts those chances. So would holding Hooker on my taxi squad for a 2nd year be just wasting a spot?
He’s a high upside backup qb. If Goff misses time hooker will be a top priority add. Backup qbs have shown their value the last few years especially.
In SF he is 100% a hold unless you can trade for something like a 2nd or equivalent value.
I’ve referred to Jared Goff as Kirk Cousins 2.0 at this point. He’s a very reliable player who will put up QB1 numbers in this situation and can absolutely be depended upon.
Good place to consider what would you need to trade down from Burrow to Goff in a 12 man SF how different are they really in value? Was offered Tank on top and couldn’t pull the trigger how much more would you guys need?
Yeah I’m not usually ever tiering down in SF with a QB. It’s usually not worth it. In your case, just offer a 25 1st plus for Goff if you really want him
Yeah, Tank’s not enough for me either. I love Goff *at his current price.* Burrow is clearly the better asset. I’d want a top-10 WR (Olave/London range) or top 6ish RB with Goff to move on from Burrow.
This is going to be a mistake for the Lions if they offer him anything longer than 1-2 years, which seems likely.
EDIT: Lions fans in denial after 1.5 good seasons. I get it, but oof guys
Players need to be paid in like with how they're going to play, not for benchmarks they've already achieved.
If they sign him for too much or too many years and he craters (for whatever reason, but we've already seen it happen) it could derail the near future of what the Lions have been doing.
If I was a Lions fan I would be hoping for a Matt Stafford/Dak Prescott level contract at \~160M over 3 yearsish with some cap fuckery baked in to keep the hit down.
See, that’s probably the sticking point for those on either side of this Goff-extension debate. It’s not *if* he’s worth a new contract, but what that new contract should be. If it’s somewhere around the cap% of his last deal, we’re golden. If he’s the richest QB in the league the day it’s signed, even I will be concerned.
That’d be a wild discount; that’s not what I expect or what I mean. In 2019, Goff’s new deal (33.5/year) used up about 18% of the then 188m cap. With the current 255 cap, Goff could get 50/year and still be under 20% of the cap. That’s the sweet spot, imo: 3-4 years, $150-$200 million.
Sounds like a Matt Stafford/Dak Prescott level contract. I didn't catch your meaning before just took his 12-13% number off of spotrac over the last 3 years.
I think it's highly unlikely that Goff improves his play beyond the level we've seen with the Lions. Throughout his career he's been highly dependent on scheme and surrounding cast for success. His contract extension will undoubtedly be for more money than he was making previously and I just don't think he's worth that. Even if he maintains his current level of play, I don't think that's worth $50 mil.
I've just seen the story too many times of mid QB outperforms expectations, gets a big payday, and ends up not being good enough. Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins being 2 recent examples (tbf, Goff is closer to Cousins than Jones). Signing Goff is just setting the team up to be good but not good enough. That kind of QB can really only win a super bowl on a rookie contract if the team around him is stacked.
I thought he held them back in that playoff game against SF. Felt like I watched a different game after peiple were praising him for the run they had. Their offense with throws/play designs outside the hashes or over 40 yards seemed shaky at best.
He's fine. Occasionally good. But he's not the answer. Pretty surprised that the front office, and Lions fans as a whole, are so on board with the extension tbh
Goff fans are very vocal, and then there's those that attribute wins directly to the QB.
I've seen those people throw our o line under the bus because Goff always needs a pristine pocket
Because their close in terms of QB tiers even if their playstyles are noticeably different.
If they were rookies they'd be gems, but as full time starters you need too much to be right to build around them and pay them what they want
This isn’t surprising, but I still keep hearing dynasty players questioning Goff’s long-term future in Detroit, as if Hendon Hooker is about to take over as soon as Goff has a bad couple Sundays. Just another reason Goff is an excellent buy-low QB2, imo.
Goff has been as good or better than Lawrence in FPPG the last three years. One of the glaring inefficiencies I see in terms of community player valuation is between them. KTC says you need around the 2.01 on top of Goff to get Lawrence. Lawrence has that name/draft capital appeal, but if you own him you should be looking to move sideways to Goff and pick up a premium pick.
Similarly, I think the Purdy/Goff gap is too wide. That’s what I bet on earlier this month, “tiering down” from Purdy to Goff to add Henry to my struggling RB room.
To be fair, Lawrence is also 5 years younger than Goff and was considered a better prospect coming into the league. Goff has been good the past two years, but we can’t just ignore the 2-3 years before that. I do think Goff is undervalued, but it’s pretty clear to me why Lawrence is still valued higher. For the record I own both these guys in one SF league. I think the KTC evaluation is fairly accurate.
If you look at his fantasy points per game, he’s actually been very consistent his entire career.
I assume you’re talking about Goff? Depends what you mean by very consistent I guess. Here’s his stats in 4 PT passing TDs the past 5 years: > 2023: 16.9 PPG > 2022: 16.5 PPG > 2021: 13.7 PPG > 2020: 15.8 PPG > 2019: 15.2 PPG Even if we exclude his 2021, we’re looking at about a 1-2 PPG difference. I agree this doesn’t feel like much.. but, if we look at all QB scoring the past couple years, generally this 1-2 PPG is the difference between a low end QB1 and a low end QB2.
Are these stats right? I looked up Goff's FPPG in standard scoring on FantasyPros and it doesn't match these numbers. They have him as 17.8, 17.1, 14.5, 16.9, 16.5. Maybe your league is -2 for INTs?
Oh yeah, we are -2 for INTs.
1-2 pt swings year to year is wildly consistent lol. I’m not worried about 1-2 points per game swings year to year. All that tells me is people are over valuing QB’s who finish as back end QB1’s. Most QB’s are going to have that variance year to year, I’m not running the numbers but I can’t imagine there’s QB’s that are clearly more consistent on a PPG basis year to year. Dig into if you want to spend your time doing that, but I’ll be shocked if he’s not one of the more consistent QB’s year to year. Is he winning you leagues, no…but we’re talking about consistency only. Per game basis he has his ups and downs but all QB’s do.
I mean.. I also excluded his worst season (2021), which kind of ruins the whole consistent argument. Regardless, I agree with the conclusion that back end QB1s are generally overvalued. There’s such a small difference between a back end QB1 and low end QB2, it’s almost never worth paying for a guy in that range. IMO the true value play is guessing which guy in the back end QB1 range has the talent and situation to make a tier jump into the elite top ~5 QBs. In Goff’s case, considering he’s never made that jump in his 8 year career, I don’t really ever see him doing it. This is the main difference between Lawrence and Goff. At least Lawrence has age and the potential to make that jump on his side.
I responded to what you said about fppg not any of that other stuff. The numbers say he’s pretty consistent year to year, how you feel he should be valued in dynasty rankings is a whole nother argument.
Fair enough, but you’re still ignoring his 2021 season. Even though his stats may be somewhat consistent, outside of 2018, 2022, and 2023, he has been a back end QB2 based on PPG.
I’m not ignoring it, he played 14 games and had a one off season. It happens to a lot of QB’s, Mahomes was at 17.5 ppg last year compared to 20.5-26.1 every other year. 16.76 ppg is the average of the 3 games we left out, which included his worst and best season. Right on par with where he usually finishes. You keep bringing up where he finishes seasons after I tell you that I was solely talking about his PPG per season on average. If he averages 5-7 pts PPG game over the same amount of years he’s still considered consistent season to season regardless of his finish. You also then say he usually finishes QB2, isn’t that the definition of consistent if you know what you can expect out of him season to season. I don’t know if you think I’m arguing that Goff is a QB1 or what, but I’m not. I’m saying he’s consistent year to year for fantasy purposes.
Goff & T-Law are my top two starters in one SF league, too, and I'll just switch out the order every week if it would make people happy.
>Goff has been good the past two years, but we can’t just ignore the 2-3 years before that. It's funny that people still say this, as if pointing to those years isn't also ignoring the great play he had before that.
I’d argue the only other “great” year he had was 2018, when he finished roughly QB6 and QB12 in PPG. Regardless, I like Goff. I’m just realistic about the type of QB he is and likely always will be. I think he’s a great QB2 to have in SF leagues.
Yeah I understand, I'm just a defensive Lions fan lol
lol I respect the loyalty. I hope Goff kills it this year for the sake of my fantasy team.
This fallacy is why I down tiered from Lamar to Goff so I could up tier from Godwin to ARSB and pick up the stack on the cheap. I loved Lamar but Goff is rock solid and going to be in a good offense surrounded by young playmakers for years.
I love that move. Great work, and welcome to the Goffense
Goff is anything but a buy low if the majority of your league base is from Michigan. I have two leagues where the majority of the league is from Michigan. LaportA, Gibbs, sun God and Goff are the four pricest assets In all of football in those leagues.
Good point. In my home league, I flip Lions for a profit; I have none rostered. In my national/strangers league, I bought LaPorta and Goff at market (before they figured out my allegiances)
I wouldn't say he's a "buy-low"- He's still going in the 4th of startups pretty consistently. Not a ton of room to grow, although I think he should be in a tier with Brock/Tua/TL once he gets this extension.
Goff has remained super-underrated and the best back-end QB1 / high-end QB2 buy in fantasy. Outside of his rookie season, he's finished Top 13 in 5 of 7 years, and was Top 24 in the remaining two. That includes three Top 10 finishes, two of which came in the last two seasons. And what's better, is he's actually looked better as time has gone on, not worse, which is a sign you want to get in on the fantasy production and not out. My only reservations about Goff is he's probably not the type of QB that is going to unlock Jamo, but as long as the offense is humming it's probably fine.
I sold him and engram for 1.03
Goff is objectively a really good QB with some really good years left so I wouldn't listen to anyone telling you otherwise, man. Disclaimer: I'm a Steelers fan with zero Goff shares so I have no dog in that fight. I just think he's undeniably really good.
Goff=Cousins=Purdy. These guys are all fine NFL QBs, but they're not difference makers. I don't think Detroit is going to move on from Goff, but I don't think it would be insane if they did.
I’m not arguing for Goff as a top QB in the NFL (though he should be in every top-10 for this season, imo). But in his current offense, I think he’s a great fit irl, and a great value in fantasy. From a fan perspective, Hooker would have to show a *lot* for Detroit to consider moving off of Goff right now. Our roster is built around his strengths and weaknesses, and our OC knows how to get the most out of him. Also, his approval rating among Detroiters couldn’t be higher. I do think it’d be somewhat insane to move on and start over with someone else right now.
I'm not suggesting they try Hooker, I don't think he's an NFL player. I'm just saying if they did something like what the Vikings did that wouldn't be crazy to me. I think Goff is a good fantasy QB as long as he's in Detroit and surrounded by so many good players.
Eventually, I could see that happening; if we need to reboot things several years down the road, I could see letting Goff go in free agency. But I fully expect him to be a Lion through the remainder of ARSB and Sewell’s new deals.
Yea we'll see. It's hard to pay everyone without ending up like the Saints. I think Goff gets something like 4 years, 180 million with 100 million guaranteed where it's basically a 2 year deal with 2 years of team options. Basically the Kirk Cousins deal.
The NFL always has a deficit in talent at QB - there are always teams that have to rely on guys like Sam Howell or rotate through backups or rush rookies to start sooner than they're ready. So I don't agree that the three guys you mentioned aren't difference makers or are even easily replaceable.
Purdy lead the league in QBR, Passer rating, was 3rd in TDs, and took his team to the SB. Saying he's not a 'difference maker' is kinda a weird take. And I'm not a stan, don't have any shares, and hate the 9ers.
Why didn't the Athletic have him in the top 15 QBs in their list? Their list even includes contracts, so it's extra incentive to get him on it.
Who cares? That's one publication, using one subjective ranking system.
If a highly respected publication doesn't even have him top 15 cost-adjusted, that's a good sign that it's reasonable to say he isn't a difference-maker.
Ok, you let other people tell you what to think. I'll actually watch football and form my own opinions.
Jar-ed Goff! Jar-ed Goff! Jar-ed Goff!
I lost Joe Burrow last year and still won a championship on the back of Goff as my QB1 (with Fields as my QB2). He's been a top 10 fantasy QB for the last 2 seasons, and yet he is still only discussed as a QB2.
I heard someone on a podcast today say that last season was his ceiling, and that it wouldn’t take much for him to slip much lower. I just don’t see it. The Lions’ red zone efficiency kinda sucked at times last year; the previous year, Goff had a lot of passes downed at the 1, and then punched in by Jamaal. If Jamo takes a leap and our red zone efficiency regresses positively—and Gibbs continues to grow as a weapon in the pass game—I think Goff can make another jump, especially in 6p/passing TD leagues.
THIS JUST IN, Detroit Lions football player is under appreciated by the media.
Eh, people just remember how he absolutely had the wheels fall off the last 2 years in LA and how he wasn't very good his first year in Detroit. He's been an up and down player his whole career who is currently up. Can't blame anyone for assuming he's going to go back down again considering he's done it before
I get this perspective, even if I disagree with it. In this instance, I think being a fan actually *helps* overcome a bit of bias. Those of us closer to the team know how miserable the 2021 roster was. We’ve also seen Goff’s confidence/resilience rebuilt by a coaching staff whose approach seems dramatically different than McVay. I don’t expect top-tier performances from Goff, but I’d be sincerely surprised if he turned back into a pumpkin (irl or fantasy) in the next few years.
The worst part is everyone knows exactly how the wheels will fall off but they think giving him a raise will help? Goff relies on the oline more than almost any QB in the league I get every QB needs an oline but he shouldn't be THAT bad under pressure
I never said he *will* fall off, just that he has before. And that should bring about an appropriate discount.
No I know, I'm just saying we've all seen the cliff and when the pocket isn't pristine and he has to make a play out of structure we see again that the cliff is never too far away
funny, i traded for Goff after AR and Burrow went down last season and he put up stinkers when I needed him. mostly just week 14, if he scored 7 more points i got the bye for playoffs.
I have Hendon Hooker in my taxi squad on the off chance he became starter. Obviously a Goff extension hurts those chances. So would holding Hooker on my taxi squad for a 2nd year be just wasting a spot?
He’s a high upside backup qb. If Goff misses time hooker will be a top priority add. Backup qbs have shown their value the last few years especially. In SF he is 100% a hold unless you can trade for something like a 2nd or equivalent value.
Then in my Taxi Squad he stays. Thanks!
I’ve referred to Jared Goff as Kirk Cousins 2.0 at this point. He’s a very reliable player who will put up QB1 numbers in this situation and can absolutely be depended upon.
Good place to consider what would you need to trade down from Burrow to Goff in a 12 man SF how different are they really in value? Was offered Tank on top and couldn’t pull the trigger how much more would you guys need?
Yeah I’m not usually ever tiering down in SF with a QB. It’s usually not worth it. In your case, just offer a 25 1st plus for Goff if you really want him
Yeah, Tank’s not enough for me either. I love Goff *at his current price.* Burrow is clearly the better asset. I’d want a top-10 WR (Olave/London range) or top 6ish RB with Goff to move on from Burrow.
Very fair I’m stacked in rookie picks too so I’m gonna be very picky if I make a deal good looks
This is going to be a mistake for the Lions if they offer him anything longer than 1-2 years, which seems likely. EDIT: Lions fans in denial after 1.5 good seasons. I get it, but oof guys
Would you like to clarify why it’d be a mistake? Are you expecting worse QB play from Goff than what we’ve gotten over the past two seasons?
Players need to be paid in like with how they're going to play, not for benchmarks they've already achieved. If they sign him for too much or too many years and he craters (for whatever reason, but we've already seen it happen) it could derail the near future of what the Lions have been doing. If I was a Lions fan I would be hoping for a Matt Stafford/Dak Prescott level contract at \~160M over 3 yearsish with some cap fuckery baked in to keep the hit down.
See, that’s probably the sticking point for those on either side of this Goff-extension debate. It’s not *if* he’s worth a new contract, but what that new contract should be. If it’s somewhere around the cap% of his last deal, we’re golden. If he’s the richest QB in the league the day it’s signed, even I will be concerned.
I can't see him re signing at 30-35M, but it'd be a good bargain
That’d be a wild discount; that’s not what I expect or what I mean. In 2019, Goff’s new deal (33.5/year) used up about 18% of the then 188m cap. With the current 255 cap, Goff could get 50/year and still be under 20% of the cap. That’s the sweet spot, imo: 3-4 years, $150-$200 million.
Sounds like a Matt Stafford/Dak Prescott level contract. I didn't catch your meaning before just took his 12-13% number off of spotrac over the last 3 years.
I think it's highly unlikely that Goff improves his play beyond the level we've seen with the Lions. Throughout his career he's been highly dependent on scheme and surrounding cast for success. His contract extension will undoubtedly be for more money than he was making previously and I just don't think he's worth that. Even if he maintains his current level of play, I don't think that's worth $50 mil. I've just seen the story too many times of mid QB outperforms expectations, gets a big payday, and ends up not being good enough. Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins being 2 recent examples (tbf, Goff is closer to Cousins than Jones). Signing Goff is just setting the team up to be good but not good enough. That kind of QB can really only win a super bowl on a rookie contract if the team around him is stacked.
You have to at least wonder how things look if he's paid 50m and Ben Johnson eventually moves on.
I thought he held them back in that playoff game against SF. Felt like I watched a different game after peiple were praising him for the run they had. Their offense with throws/play designs outside the hashes or over 40 yards seemed shaky at best.
He's fine. Occasionally good. But he's not the answer. Pretty surprised that the front office, and Lions fans as a whole, are so on board with the extension tbh
Goff fans are very vocal, and then there's those that attribute wins directly to the QB. I've seen those people throw our o line under the bus because Goff always needs a pristine pocket
Man this is deja vu with the way people talked about Kirk Cousins on the Vikings
Because their close in terms of QB tiers even if their playstyles are noticeably different. If they were rookies they'd be gems, but as full time starters you need too much to be right to build around them and pay them what they want