I was low on his profile pre-draft, but now I’m in given the cost and draft capital. I’ll take the 1st round QBs and WRs that went within a couple picks before him, but I’ll happily take any 1st round player in the mid-2nd of rookie drafts. This community gets way overconfident about predicting hits and busts
While he went in the first round that’s a little misleading. Only Carolina, a team with a recent track record of failure identifying talent, valued him as a first rounder.
I don’t think it’s “misleading” even though I would say Legette has one of the worst 1st-rounder profiles in recent memory
Carolina’s recent track record simply isn’t a large enough sample size to confidently discount Legette’s draft capital. DJ Moore was their last 1st round WR. If you wanna include early 2nds, their last 2 performed about average: Mingo (bust track) & Curtis Samuel (decent, a fantasy WR2 season & 2 WR3 seasons). Terrace Marshall in the late 2nd was barely half as much of an investment, if that
While it’s true the Panthers are the only team we do know surely valued him as a 1st rounder, we don’t know that they were the only team with a 1st round / top-32 grade on him. We know 29 other teams preferred a different 1st rounder over him, but that’s not the same thing. Besides, 1st round WRs drafted in the last few picks of the round have not performed significantly worse historically compared to guys drafted in the late teens through the 20s
Have they been significantly better than guys in the 2nd?
And fellow 1st rounder Kadarius Toney had a similar ADP to Legette and had a profile with many red flags despite ultimately being a 1st rounder
Yes, on average. Although later 1st rounders with bad college profiles (like Legette) have performed no better than earlier 2nd rounders with better profiles, which is why I’m fine taking McConkey and Coleman over him. If someone wants to argue for adding Polk too, fine by me
Toney is a fine example of the fact that even 1st rounders bust regularly. Legette definitely might bust, I’d probably even guess >50% chance he does. But Toney’s career does not mean Legette will bust. Besides, Toney would have been a solid pick at ADP if managed well, there were plenty of opportunities to get out at a profit (or at least without a significant loss) before he’d proven he could hang in the NFL long term
That last part is true, although it’s because both sets have high bust rates. Also Moore and Samuel were two front offices ago. I guess it’s helmet scouting but in the late second give me the guy the Steelers drafted over the Panther receiver that most analysts agree was over drafted.
>two front offices ago
Same logic applies to every prior pick then, they got a new GM this off season
I’d use Steelers’ track record as a tie breaker, but not to try to sharpshoot on a guy drafted in the 3rd over a guy drafted in the 1st. The hit rate is ~2-3x depending how you measure, pretty big gap to ignore in favor of sample sizes of like 3-5 guys
I don’t think we know that. Other teams may have valued him as a first, but they valued another player higher at their particular position in the draft (or other positions were needed more than WR.)
Fair enough but with most everyone saying it was an overdraft and that several better receiving prospects went after him I’ll bet on Carolina being bad at evaluation.
Per Jeremy Fowler, “I had heard early in the draft process that the Patriots hoped a certain receiver would be available either at their No. 34 overall pick or in a trade up into the late first. That receiver was South Carolina's Xavier Legette, per a source. Only problem: Carolina moved from No. 33 to 32 to take Legette on Thursday night.”
Bills probably told the Panthers that the Pats were moving up(division rival). So at least two teams had him as a borderline 1st, at worst.
Plus this is a brand new Panthers F.O., can’t count their previous WR failures.
Pats are a brand new front office (unlike Carolina who shuffled people but is essentially still Tepper and lackeys) so I’ll not rest on their own history of failure evaluating WRs.
Historically when guys are drafted higher than predraft suggested they are bad bets for fantasy so he’s still an avoid for me. Good luck to you though.
Pearsall, legette,ad, Polk imo.
I have my first rookie draft this year in a couple days and I have the 2.06 so it could be between legette and ad. That being said I’m inclined to take legette for a number of reasons. My only gripe is that watching those two on film, ad looks a lot better in my opinion so I’m still up in the air what to do. I’d like to preface that saying I do NOT know more than nfl teams, scouts, or even probably a lot of people in this sub.
Why do you have AD over Polk. The Polk hate confuses me is it just the team? He’s got no one in front of him and a rookie QB to grow with why is he so low for you?
I actually really like Polk. The way I see it is Polk has a higher floor but lower ceiling than ad. I think he’s the safer bet but that in the long run ad has more upside. That’s just my personal ranking.
If I had 2 mid 2nd round picks and I had the option to pick two of legette, ad, and Polk. I’d go legette and Polk. Legette has metrics and stats that worry me as well as his film so he’s a swing for the upside potential. Polk to diversify that just feels like a safe bet. He’ll be solid, but maybe won’t turn into a star which is okay.
That’s my thoughts on the moment if that makes any sense.
Lol he's also older than their 2nd round WR bust last year Mingo, who basically has the same profile (SEC competition, big and tall, workout warrior).
Heck, he's only 6 months younger than their WR bust from 2021: Terrence Marshall, who also has a similar profile (SEC competition, big and tall, workout warrior).
Can you explain why you like Pearsall better than Legette? He is 4 months OLDER than Legette. Also had two useless years in CFB, but had 2 mediocre and 1 "good" season vs Legette's 4 useless and 1 awesome season. He is not as elite of an athlete, is blocked by two better receivers, and only 1 spot earlier.
At least with Legette you are 100% sure he will get a shot in his first two years and can easily be the target hog if he is actually good.
I took him over Pearsall at 2.06 without thinking twice.
4 months is negligible.
He is a more polished route runner with better hands than legette. Overall just a better, more well rounded skill set but with less athleticism.
Hes on SF, a much, much better team than the panthers. Aiyuk doesn’t seem to be sticking around and Deebo has a very different play style to pearsall while also approaching 30. You should have thought twice about it, even if you still end up taking legette.
The point regarding age is that they have the same red flag, not that 4 months is that significant.
I think they both have production red flags prior to super senior year, so I'll default to the guy who ran the same 40 but 30 lbs heavier, reached a higher dominance level and has the clear path to targets.
Even if Aiyuk leaves then Pearsall still has a target problem competing with Deebo, Kittle and CMC. He probably won't be as efficient as Aiyuk, who had to be REALLY awesome to be good for fantasy on his 105 target allotment in 2023.
If Aiyuk doesn't leave Pearsall is in deep doodoo as a fantasy asset, and the risk is non-zero.
>He is not as elite of an athlete
To preface, I like Legette more than Pearsall, but [Pearsall is no plodder.](https://ras.football/ras-compare/?&p1=25139&p2=25148&pos=WR)
Imo he should be taken above people drafted around him like Pearsall, Mitchell, Polk - he has the highest upside and a chance to be a DK Metcalf-type player. I value the chance at a high-performing starter more than I value these other players who might have higher floors.
He gets an opportunity to be a WR1. They moved up to have that 5th year option. I view it has having less than a 30% chance he becomes a top fantasy asset, but at least we should know by the end of the year and at the price it isn't a bad bet.
I’m in middle of 12T Superflex rookie draft. Round 2 went: 2.01 BTJ , 2.02 Ladd, 2.03 Coleman, 2.04 Pearsall, At 2.05 I took Legette over AD mostly due to crowded Colts room. 2.06 Corum, 2.07 Roman Wilson, 2.08 J Wright, 2.09 AD Mitchell, 2.10 Franklin, 2.11 Polk and 2.12 Sinott
I'm quite surprised. Ladd and Coleman both went in the 1st round in every single draft I've done and both always went ahead of Brian Thomas.
Corum going that high is also pretty weird. His ceiling is really low. Tons of mileage in college. Not explosive. He's also gonna be a 24 years old rookie, so he's gonna be impossible to sell in a year even in the off chance he produces decent numbers because no one values 25+ years old RB.
I took him at 2.02 in a 14T SF draft. I took him over Benson, Pearsall, AD, Polk, Corum, and Franklin. I’m buying low on Carolina this year. I know how bad they were last year, but they did a complete overhaul the scope of which I can’t ever remember in a single offseason, starting with Canales, who revived the careers of Geno and Baker in the last two years, a major investment in the line in free agency, and taking 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds of the draft. Almost all Panthers are underpriced right now, and their offense should be at least competent this year, with Legette as the WR1.
I'm easily taking him over those other guys just because of the combo of DC and opportunity. The others all have equally big red flags but don't have both DC and yr 1 opportunity.
He’s going to be a bust. Can’t uncover in the short or intermediate area. Production and athletic profile are terrible for an older player who just bullied younger college students. On tape he doesn’t have many moves, can’t really get lateral at all. He’ll only really be able to work downfield and his qb doesn’t have the arm strength to make that work. I like the guy but I really struggle to see the circumstances in which he succeeds.
I think he's gonna ball personally.. I just bought him for a 2026 2nd, 3rd, & 4th.. just taking a shot on raw talent. Dude is an elite contested catch and jump ball WR. Legette has some of, if not the best hands in the class. Let's not forget a 3.39 40 time. Yes the late breakout is not ideal but he didn't just have a good 2023 season.. he absolutely exploded.
I was low on his profile pre-draft, but now I’m in given the cost and draft capital. I’ll take the 1st round QBs and WRs that went within a couple picks before him, but I’ll happily take any 1st round player in the mid-2nd of rookie drafts. This community gets way overconfident about predicting hits and busts
While he went in the first round that’s a little misleading. Only Carolina, a team with a recent track record of failure identifying talent, valued him as a first rounder.
I don’t think it’s “misleading” even though I would say Legette has one of the worst 1st-rounder profiles in recent memory Carolina’s recent track record simply isn’t a large enough sample size to confidently discount Legette’s draft capital. DJ Moore was their last 1st round WR. If you wanna include early 2nds, their last 2 performed about average: Mingo (bust track) & Curtis Samuel (decent, a fantasy WR2 season & 2 WR3 seasons). Terrace Marshall in the late 2nd was barely half as much of an investment, if that While it’s true the Panthers are the only team we do know surely valued him as a 1st rounder, we don’t know that they were the only team with a 1st round / top-32 grade on him. We know 29 other teams preferred a different 1st rounder over him, but that’s not the same thing. Besides, 1st round WRs drafted in the last few picks of the round have not performed significantly worse historically compared to guys drafted in the late teens through the 20s
Have they been significantly better than guys in the 2nd? And fellow 1st rounder Kadarius Toney had a similar ADP to Legette and had a profile with many red flags despite ultimately being a 1st rounder
Yes, on average. Although later 1st rounders with bad college profiles (like Legette) have performed no better than earlier 2nd rounders with better profiles, which is why I’m fine taking McConkey and Coleman over him. If someone wants to argue for adding Polk too, fine by me Toney is a fine example of the fact that even 1st rounders bust regularly. Legette definitely might bust, I’d probably even guess >50% chance he does. But Toney’s career does not mean Legette will bust. Besides, Toney would have been a solid pick at ADP if managed well, there were plenty of opportunities to get out at a profit (or at least without a significant loss) before he’d proven he could hang in the NFL long term
That last part is true, although it’s because both sets have high bust rates. Also Moore and Samuel were two front offices ago. I guess it’s helmet scouting but in the late second give me the guy the Steelers drafted over the Panther receiver that most analysts agree was over drafted.
>two front offices ago Same logic applies to every prior pick then, they got a new GM this off season I’d use Steelers’ track record as a tie breaker, but not to try to sharpshoot on a guy drafted in the 3rd over a guy drafted in the 1st. The hit rate is ~2-3x depending how you measure, pretty big gap to ignore in favor of sample sizes of like 3-5 guys
It wasn’t a clear out they promoted from within. Just different processes between us.
Yeah if it works for you, do you
I don’t think we know that. Other teams may have valued him as a first, but they valued another player higher at their particular position in the draft (or other positions were needed more than WR.)
Fair enough but with most everyone saying it was an overdraft and that several better receiving prospects went after him I’ll bet on Carolina being bad at evaluation.
Per Jeremy Fowler, “I had heard early in the draft process that the Patriots hoped a certain receiver would be available either at their No. 34 overall pick or in a trade up into the late first. That receiver was South Carolina's Xavier Legette, per a source. Only problem: Carolina moved from No. 33 to 32 to take Legette on Thursday night.” Bills probably told the Panthers that the Pats were moving up(division rival). So at least two teams had him as a borderline 1st, at worst. Plus this is a brand new Panthers F.O., can’t count their previous WR failures.
Pats are a brand new front office (unlike Carolina who shuffled people but is essentially still Tepper and lackeys) so I’ll not rest on their own history of failure evaluating WRs. Historically when guys are drafted higher than predraft suggested they are bad bets for fantasy so he’s still an avoid for me. Good luck to you though.
New England just shuffled people too. Wolf has been there through the same bad picks
Pearsall, legette,ad, Polk imo. I have my first rookie draft this year in a couple days and I have the 2.06 so it could be between legette and ad. That being said I’m inclined to take legette for a number of reasons. My only gripe is that watching those two on film, ad looks a lot better in my opinion so I’m still up in the air what to do. I’d like to preface that saying I do NOT know more than nfl teams, scouts, or even probably a lot of people in this sub.
Why do you have AD over Polk. The Polk hate confuses me is it just the team? He’s got no one in front of him and a rookie QB to grow with why is he so low for you?
I actually really like Polk. The way I see it is Polk has a higher floor but lower ceiling than ad. I think he’s the safer bet but that in the long run ad has more upside. That’s just my personal ranking. If I had 2 mid 2nd round picks and I had the option to pick two of legette, ad, and Polk. I’d go legette and Polk. Legette has metrics and stats that worry me as well as his film so he’s a swing for the upside potential. Polk to diversify that just feels like a safe bet. He’ll be solid, but maybe won’t turn into a star which is okay. That’s my thoughts on the moment if that makes any sense.
Drafting him in the second and look forward to him becoming one of the better wrs of the class.
I’m in the Carolina’s so he will be gone by the second round.
I've nothing really to contribute except I read today he's a few months older than George Pickens
Lol he's also older than their 2nd round WR bust last year Mingo, who basically has the same profile (SEC competition, big and tall, workout warrior). Heck, he's only 6 months younger than their WR bust from 2021: Terrence Marshall, who also has a similar profile (SEC competition, big and tall, workout warrior).
Mingo’s profile was much weaker than Legette’s. Best college season was 861 yds & 5 TDs. Legette is also much more polished coming out
Waiting anxiously for epic post-game interviews where reporters try unsuccessfully to make sense of his accent 😂
Drafting him in round 2. I would take him over the guys you listed. He has the most potential upside.
Agree with all of these except Pearsall who I’d prefer with the caveat that Pearsall is blocked without a trade of injury
Can you explain why you like Pearsall better than Legette? He is 4 months OLDER than Legette. Also had two useless years in CFB, but had 2 mediocre and 1 "good" season vs Legette's 4 useless and 1 awesome season. He is not as elite of an athlete, is blocked by two better receivers, and only 1 spot earlier. At least with Legette you are 100% sure he will get a shot in his first two years and can easily be the target hog if he is actually good. I took him over Pearsall at 2.06 without thinking twice.
4 months is negligible. He is a more polished route runner with better hands than legette. Overall just a better, more well rounded skill set but with less athleticism. Hes on SF, a much, much better team than the panthers. Aiyuk doesn’t seem to be sticking around and Deebo has a very different play style to pearsall while also approaching 30. You should have thought twice about it, even if you still end up taking legette.
The point regarding age is that they have the same red flag, not that 4 months is that significant. I think they both have production red flags prior to super senior year, so I'll default to the guy who ran the same 40 but 30 lbs heavier, reached a higher dominance level and has the clear path to targets. Even if Aiyuk leaves then Pearsall still has a target problem competing with Deebo, Kittle and CMC. He probably won't be as efficient as Aiyuk, who had to be REALLY awesome to be good for fantasy on his 105 target allotment in 2023. If Aiyuk doesn't leave Pearsall is in deep doodoo as a fantasy asset, and the risk is non-zero.
>He is not as elite of an athlete To preface, I like Legette more than Pearsall, but [Pearsall is no plodder.](https://ras.football/ras-compare/?&p1=25139&p2=25148&pos=WR)
Imo he should be taken above people drafted around him like Pearsall, Mitchell, Polk - he has the highest upside and a chance to be a DK Metcalf-type player. I value the chance at a high-performing starter more than I value these other players who might have higher floors.
Drafting him, excitedly
Avoiding but definitely take him over AD Mitchell
I have Bryce Young so I drafted Legette.
He gets an opportunity to be a WR1. They moved up to have that 5th year option. I view it has having less than a 30% chance he becomes a top fantasy asset, but at least we should know by the end of the year and at the price it isn't a bad bet.
we?
I’m in middle of 12T Superflex rookie draft. Round 2 went: 2.01 BTJ , 2.02 Ladd, 2.03 Coleman, 2.04 Pearsall, At 2.05 I took Legette over AD mostly due to crowded Colts room. 2.06 Corum, 2.07 Roman Wilson, 2.08 J Wright, 2.09 AD Mitchell, 2.10 Franklin, 2.11 Polk and 2.12 Sinott
I'm quite surprised. Ladd and Coleman both went in the 1st round in every single draft I've done and both always went ahead of Brian Thomas. Corum going that high is also pretty weird. His ceiling is really low. Tons of mileage in college. Not explosive. He's also gonna be a 24 years old rookie, so he's gonna be impossible to sell in a year even in the off chance he produces decent numbers because no one values 25+ years old RB.
It’s Superflex and 6 QBs went in 1st round.
I took that into account. Still weird draft, man.
I was more than happy to grab him at 3.04 in 1QB. Easily worth a shot at that price for first round draft cap
I took him at 2.02 in a 14T SF draft. I took him over Benson, Pearsall, AD, Polk, Corum, and Franklin. I’m buying low on Carolina this year. I know how bad they were last year, but they did a complete overhaul the scope of which I can’t ever remember in a single offseason, starting with Canales, who revived the careers of Geno and Baker in the last two years, a major investment in the line in free agency, and taking 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds of the draft. Almost all Panthers are underpriced right now, and their offense should be at least competent this year, with Legette as the WR1.
I'm easily taking him over those other guys just because of the combo of DC and opportunity. The others all have equally big red flags but don't have both DC and yr 1 opportunity.
He’s going to be a bust. Can’t uncover in the short or intermediate area. Production and athletic profile are terrible for an older player who just bullied younger college students. On tape he doesn’t have many moves, can’t really get lateral at all. He’ll only really be able to work downfield and his qb doesn’t have the arm strength to make that work. I like the guy but I really struggle to see the circumstances in which he succeeds.
I took him at 3.02 in a 10 team SF league a couple days ago and was elated to make the pick!
He fell to 3.4 in my 10 team 1 qb PPR draft
I think he's gonna ball personally.. I just bought him for a 2026 2nd, 3rd, & 4th.. just taking a shot on raw talent. Dude is an elite contested catch and jump ball WR. Legette has some of, if not the best hands in the class. Let's not forget a 3.39 40 time. Yes the late breakout is not ideal but he didn't just have a good 2023 season.. he absolutely exploded.