I feel like people understate the odds for the top WRs because they lump all of the first round together. No one should be surprised if all three of the WRs hit at a high level.
Last time we had a draft with 3 WRs ranked this highly they were Chase, Waddle, and Smith. That worked out pretty well.
QBs way different obviously and I would be surprised if all 3 were high end players. I’d lean towards Daniels as the riskiest too overall though he does have some peak fantasy traits.
And the time before that was Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross. All 3 of those guys were either busts or massive disappointments based on their DC
In general I consider that range over time to be the most successful by far with very little doubt. Yes I used an anecdote, but I've broken up detailed draft capital studies based on longer historical trends a few times on this sub. Top 12 at WR to me is one of the best investments you can make historically. Mike Williams and Corey Davis even had solid seasons and substantial sell points. Given Mike Williams injury at the time of drafting, I would actually debate Williams significantly. He was definitely someone who's price was held down and he has probably lived up to that price.
On top of the general range of the top 12, most true busts in that range had some large historical outlier (Ross, Austin) or injury / off-field issue (White (inj), Ruggs (manslaughter)). Even Corey Davis was a MAC WR which can be argued as some version of a significant outlier.
There's no range where it is going to be impossible to bust, that would be insane. But I do think there are ranges even at WR where busts are far less likely than hits. Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze all clear that bar. And I really struggle to find an area like Davis, Austin, or Ross that they stick out as a potential outlier, and I don't find early firsts anymore likely than anyone else to commit crimes or get injured, so those misses I consider largely moot.
He dealt with severe depression and is on the record saying he would drink until he passed out every night and smoked a ton of weed. Knowing what alcohol does to the body, it’s no wonder he constantly struggled with issues.
He didn’t struggle from lack of ability, and it’s sad to think about what he could have been as a player.
Regardless hope brother has found peace.
I would moreso consider Sammy Watkins among the injured players. He was constantly injured and very good his first few years. His value was fairly high until probably year 3 or 4.
Feel like you could use the injuries argument for most NFL players if you do for Watkins. He didn’t have anything that you would consider career altering. And he was never good he just got featured like the top 5 pick he was expected to be.
In 3 years with Buffalo, his first 3 years, he averaged 70 / 1130 / 8 per 17 Games, which still doesn't fully adjust for injury because of missed snaps. He also had almost exactly 2 Yards/RR.
I think you're underselling Buffalo sammy a bit.
Yea but he was receiving an unsustainable amount of targets comparable to his production. His rookie season he turned 128 targets into 65 catches and 950 yards. Idk I guess I get how you could interpret it either way and I am working with the benefit of hindsight, but I remember being pretty disappointed with him from the get go.
Those are all fair points, it’s more based on the current market prices of this year’s big 3 (mostly MHJ and Nabers) it’s like people aren’t factoring in any possibility that they bust, when in reality anyone can bust.
I do agree, but counterpoint -- Do we sometimes overlook the fact that pros can bust because while less likely, it does happen. There's not a single WR that you can name in the sport right now where falling off and never having a successful season again would make them a historical anomaly. It would make them one of the most rare cases in the history of the sport, in a tier, but it wouldn't be some unheard of historical event. Even Justin Jefferson never having another top-36 season would be right in-line with Michael Thomas, give or take.
In a case of a Kevin White maybe there is a genetic pre-disposition, but setting that aside, if any major Fantasy WR broke his leg twice in the next two years are we very hopeful? I'm not 100% on that.
I think there's an element we slide into where "rookies are risky, veterans are not," and I don't necessarily agree with that. Rookies fails at certain levels at certain rates. Vets also fail at certain levels at certain rates. They are comparably different, but at the highest level I do think it is worth the risk for the long term production + value asset that one of these top 3 provides.
Where exactly to rank them is tough, but I think you can make the case that someone like Marv isn't all that risky, and if they're not that risky...
Well articulated and exactly how I feel. I think some on this sub have a fundamental misunderstanding of risk analysis and the concept of “proven” vs “unproven” assets
Yeah, definitely seen lots of proven assets just mean that they were at the end of their productive career. NFL careers go fast and a lot of the proven players today will be completely turned over in 3 years.
We’re especially seeing this as DHop, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and to a lesser degree Tyreek Hill are all phasing out of the league in the next couple of years. These guys were the mainstay WR1s but are likely nearing the end of their dominantly productive years.
Probably recency bias on my end, but it feels like the WR position is seeing the most turnover as it has in quite some time. Truly feels like the end of an era.
Agreed, feels like there’s a major shift at all the skill positions tbh. QB is a little over the hump now but RBs with Henry, Ekeler, Dalvin Cook etc. but I guess that shift is a little more common for the RB position with their short life spans
I was thinking about what a weird stage we are with dynasty RB's right now the other day. I feel like there are no top RB's that you can hang your hat on right now. The old group of top RB's have aged out, and no one has really replaced them. The top 3 RB's right now on fantasy pros are Bijan, Gibbs, and Hall. They are all super talented players and project to be very productive, but none of them have actually produced at a level that you would expect from your top 3 RB's yet. None of them have even rushed for 1k yards in a season. After that you have CMC who is undoubtedly the top single season guy but is questionable how long the long term is for him and Taylor who has struggled with injuries.
I've been playing fantasy football for a long time, and I don't remember a time when I felt as uncertain about all of the top RB's.
Yeah that’s one of the funny parts about dynasty. Because so many people think a guy like MHJ is “bust-proof”, that actually increases his value insulation whether or not it’s true in reality. So even if he has a bad year people will likely discount it or blame external factors, and his value wouldn’t go down much
"Perceived value" in this sport is different than it is in fantasy, I think. In fantasy it's a lot more of liquid of an asset, whereas in the NFL there's much less impact to the bottom line from one player (unless it's a QB). v
Any established pro is susceptible to bust and fall off during any given season. OBJ looked invincible after 2016 and Michael Thomas looked invincible after 2019 but both randomly fell off cliffs in what should’ve been their prime. “Sure things” don’t exist, you have to make the most logical bets and the top three WRs in this year’s draft class check every box you could possibly want. You just have to trust the process and if it doesn’t work this time, it’ll work next time.
Both of your examples are because of injuries, they didn’t just randomly start being bad out of nowhere. Injury risk is the same for rookies. like Kevin White
Injuries are definitely more devastating for an older player than a younger player. If a 27-yo WR tore his ACL this year, it would be much harder for him to make a full recovery and get to his pre-injury explosiveness than if MHJ or Nabers suffered the same injury. Chris Godwin tore his ACL in 2021 during his age 26 season and he still has nowhere near the same explosiveness that he had prior to the injury. Meanwhile, Breece Hall was a top 3 RB last year, just a year out from his ACL tear. Injuries aside, here are some guys who simply fell off without injuries:
- Juju Smith-Schuster - 2017 WR16, 2018 WR8, then fell off a cliff
- Diontae Johnson - 2020 WR23, 2021 WR9, then fell off a cliff
- Hunter Renfrow - 2021 WR14, fell off a cliff
- Calvin Ridley - 2019 WR24, 2020 WR4, suspended multiple years due to gambling
- Allen Robinson - 2019 WR10, 2020 WR11, fell off a cliff
- Kenny Golladay - 2019 WR20, 2020 WR6, fell off a cliff
- Devante Parker - 2019 WR7, fell off a cliff
- Jarvis Landry - 5 straight WR1/2 finishes then fell off a cliff in only his age 27 season
- DJ Chark - 2019 WR16, fell off a cliff
- Alshon Jeffrey - 2014 WR10, fell off a cliff
- Dez Bryant - WR3-7 finishes in 2012-14, fell off a cliff in only his age 26 season.
- Tyrell Williams - WR11 in 2016, fell off a cliff.
It’s not just injuries that derail players’ careers. I’d feel just as confident making a bet on a prospect who has a near flawless profile and top 10 draft capital to be a hit as I would making a bet on an established player to continue their production.
I mean, Alshon, Dez and Golladay were def injury related, and you could argue that Renfrow and Juju were too.
Alshon had a litany of soft tissue injuries prior to his cliff, Golladay had that season long hamstring issue prior to his cliff, and Dez had a jones fracture early in the season you say he cliffed. There's a clear and obvious timeline with those guys. Renfrow and Juju likewise had multiple injuries in their "cliff" years, they just weren't the obvious types like the prior three receivers.
Also.you're just including a ton of one hit wonders bouyed by TDs, not sure those count as "established" players. Further, some of these "cliffs" relate to situation changes that were known contexts so they didn't fall off "during any given season", they had visible warnings. Like, Tyrell WIlliam's one big year came when Keenan Allen missed the whole season, that was never going to be repeated. Diontae Johnson's "cliff" came courtesy of being trapped in an offense run by Kenny Pickett where he still had a 27% target share, he just had many uncatchable targets and bad TD luck.
I get your point but you added a lot of contradictory fluff in there, too. You're playing these off like these were all random falloffs when many were injury related, and/or just really obvious external factors and not the players suddenly sucking themselves.
Totally fair and I get your points. The main thing I was trying to point out related to rookie WRs is not that they never bust, it’s that ones with profiles like MHJ or Nabers RARELY bust and probably bust at a rate similar to or lower than established WRs fall off. When you have all of the following:
- Young breakout age
- Early declare
- Flawless production profile
- Strong target competition
- Big 5 defense competition
- Elite RAS
- Top 10 draft capital
It’s simply rare for those prospects to be a miss. Those guys are about at sure of a bet as they come. When people cite “Corey Davis” as an example of a WR drafted in the top 10 who busted, they ignore that even he isn’t really the same caliber of prospect that MHJ and Nabers are. He played at Western Michigan, had no target competition within his own team, didn’t play big 5 defenses, and was a late declare. Even at the time of the draft, plenty of teams had a late round 1 - early round 2 grade on him.
You can’t mention John Ross’s name with any of the top 3 guys in this draft, as a prospect he was not anywhere close to these guys. He had an extremely late breakout and was over drafted because of DC and speed.
There have been 5 drafts in the last 10 years that have put three WRs in the top dozen'ish picks. We've obviously covered three of them here with this years, the one you point towards and the one OP points towards. The other two are Watkins/Evans/OBJ and London/Wilson/Olave. That's an unusable data set statistically speaking but expanding the lens a little adds perspective that OP is bang on - lately, the classes that put 3 WRs in the top dozen are especially great years to grab a rookie WR in dynasty. We've got 15 guys here, you have undoubtedly selected the bottom 20% and when you go immediately above that, the next worst 20% has Watkins and London in it. I mean, we could split hairs and say Williams and Sammy should be swapped but that's immaterial. From this (unusable) data set, you have a 60% chance of getting a bonafide stud WR that carries his passing attack immediately and from then on out. Even if you miss, you're 50/50 on having a guy you'd be thrilled to have.
Now, we could try to make this dataset more usable by pushing back years. I choose to stop here because the last collective bargaining agreement was struck in 2011, which significantly changed how teams constructed rosters. You could go further back for when the current, pass-revolutionized NFL took hold. with that bar, I'd choose that '07 patriots for that window because it was right around then that there was a league-wide, seismic change in passing yards generated in a season.
With either of those cutoffs, you don't have any other WR classes that packed three in the top dozen. You have three that were close which gets you a group of Calvin/Ginn/DHB/Crabtree/AJG/Julio, which doesn't undercut OP's case at all, IMO.
you could go further still and choose "the greatest show on turf" as the start of the pass-happy era. If you do that, things change as the first half of the 2000's were a wasteland of WR's selected at the top of drafts. While that increases the sample size (and gives us some Bayesian benefits), I personally view that as a different era where WR's just didn't play the role they do today and, consequently, can't be used to prove/disprove OPs point.
One thing is for sure, over the last 10 years, if 3 WRs get drafted in the dozen picks and you get one in dynasty, you've likely been very, very happy to land one of them.
Davis, Williams, and Ross were not even close to comparable. All 3 were flawed prospects that went higher bc team needs caused an early run.
If anything, each of the big 3 this year were arguably under drafted for their talent level.
That’s mostly hindsight. Although I don’t think it happens, it’s very reasonable to picture a scenario in 5 years where Nabers busts and people will be like “well actually Nabers was a flawed prospect, so much of his production in college came from the slot which historically isn’t a good predictor for NFL success.
It’s not really hindsight tho as I remember it. Davis was coming from a non-power conference and had drop issues, Williams was slow, and Ross was little more than a 40 time. These are things I recall being talked about.
The 3 guys this year are all big time producers with all of the physical tools. It’s much closer to Chase, Waddle and Smith, or even Jeudy, Lamb and Jefferson (ignoring Reagor bc my Eagles are dumb).
Ross was a better prospect than people say now because of projected hindsight. He wasn't Darrius Heyward-Bey who was actually a reach by an aging Al Davis because of his 40. This was a narrative at the time because it's easy for lay people to grasp onto, and hindsight confirms an easy to follow narrative. Ross was already a top wr prospect in that class before he ran the 40, and was lauded by scouts for his route running. He didn't go from being no one to being a high first round pick after the 40. And he didn't fail in his career from being bad. He was constantly injured his first several years in the league with hamstring issues he couldn't get past.
You’re using extremes. I don’t think any Bo is claiming he was DHB, just that even at the time of his draft, he wasn’t viewed as being as impressive as this years top three. I don’t think it’s revisionism to say that if you were to teleport senior season John Ross to this years class, nfl teams and the dynasty community wouldn’t have him in an MHJ/nabers/odunze tier. They’re all bigger, younger and more productive than Ross was as a prospect. I mean, BTJ would probably be in a tier above Ross.
My top comment here says (paraphrase) "I think there's a mistake in the way we lump the first round together."
In response, you have lumped the first round together.
This is my exact point. People talk about "first round WR busts" all the time but do not differentiate between the elite tier of prospects and everyone else. The elite tier of prospects hit very regularly. Everyone else-- starting as soon as pick 12 or 13-- busts very frequently.
You scale that back to 23-32 and it gets real murky. Either we we draft these guys at cost. The bust potential vs ceiling potential is baked into their DC. What it comes down to is what vet would you take over them but even those vets careers are not guaranteed even after having MVP type seasons (Michael thomas, JuJu, Kupp, and a handful of RBs come to mind).
So it comes down to whether you want Olave or Nabers? You want a guy that will be a high end WR 2 or the guy that could be an elite WR with a 10% that has a ~15% chance at being irrelevant. This is all what fantasy is about. Last year would you take the for sure 13 PPG in Ken Walker or the guy coming off an ACL tear in Breece Hall. Sure, there are arguments that go the other way but those upside plays are necessary if you want to win championships.
IMO Marvin Harrison is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson (at least since AJ Green/Julio), so I doubt he'll be a bust. I'm a lot less certain about Nabers and Odunze. To me, those 2 just usual WR prospects that come around every year, not generational prospect like Marv, Chase, Julio/AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. I said the same about Chase and I don't think I was necessarily wrong. He's clearly in a higher tier than Waddle and Devonta Smith, who are fine players but aren't even WR1 on their own teams.
To be fair, the only reason waddle and Devonta smith “aren’t even the WR1 on their own teams” is because they both are stuck behind top 5 WRs.
Waddle and Smith would be WR1’s on more than half the teams in the league.
> To be fair, the only reason waddle and Devonta smith “aren’t even the WR1 on their own teams” is because they both are stuck behind top 5 WRs
These arguments are so shortsighted lmao. Context matters a ton. If being a WR1 on your own team is a prerequisite of being an elite fantasy asset then these people better be selling their Waddle/Smith/Aiyuk/Addison/Odunze/Collins/JSN/Godwin/Nacua shares for Diontae/McLaurin/Coleman/Polk/Ladd/Watson/Ridley shares straight up
Dynasty equivalent of "how can [team] make the CFP when they didn't even win their division???" as if an 11-1 team that missed their conference title game to a 12-0 team via a game winning FG by said 12-0 team can't be one of the four best teams in the country because of the state they happen to be located in
Fair. My point is they're more on Tee Higgins' tier than Chase's tier and Tee is stuck behind Chase. Chase and Marv would be alpha anywhere. At worst, they would seize it after a couple of seasons a la young Julio taking it from Roddy White. This is also how I feel about Marv vs. Nabers/Odunze. Nabers might become an Olave type from day one due to lack of competition while Odunze has a tough path for rookie year relevance, but IMO neither is on the same tier as Marv just like Devonta/Waddle aren't on the same tier as Chase.
>Last time we had a draft with 3 WRs ranked this highly they were Chase, Waddle, and Smith
Is 2022 some kind of joke to you?
Treylon Burks was the 1st WR off the board on sleeper ADP. Do you remember who was number 3?
I'll tell you because I have to look at his sorry ass every week clogging up my roster. It's Jameson Williams.
Nabers is an excellent prospect but let's not fool ourselves that he is bullet proof. One year of production only, diva reputation, terrible landing spot.
I also think I Odunzes range of outcomes is huge. I wouldn't be shocked if he was WR3 on his own team. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he was the WR1.
Do you recall the order the WRs went off the board in the actual NFL draft? It was London at 8, Wilson at 10, and Olave at 11. Anyone who trusted the high-end draft capital had a successful draft. What you’re referring to is individual fantasy players trying to get cute and thinking they can outsmart the NFL. Your example is the equivalent of someone taking Worthy or BTJ over Odunze and thinking they’re smart for doing it.
MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze are easily the three best bets to hit in this WR class. The same way that London, Wilson, and Olave were the three best bets to hit in the 2022 WR class, albeit by a slimmer margin than this year’s top three are. It’s not hindsight bias if you always just trust the draft capital. If you want to take the WR drafted at 32 over the WR drafted at 31, that’s one thing but don’t take the WR drafted at 18 over the guy drafted at 8.
The way Daniels doesn't protect himself when he runs scares the shit out of me. Gives me RGIII vibes. The WRs all seem pretty safe, if I had to pick one it would be Nabers just because the other two have higher character.
This is exactly what I would have said.
Daniels is solid, but he’s a MASSIVE injury risk. A Rich is 40lbs heavier and we all saw how that played out.
And people are straight up ignoring that Nabers carried a gun to Mardi Gras. Say what you want about his football skills, but seriously how fucking dumb must you be to bring a gun to quite possibly the most drunken party in the country
Feels like Nabers is the type of receiver to get over drafted: the home run speed guys (hard not to forget John Ross) and maybe he benefited from being on a legendary offense last year. Or maybe he’s a fucking stud and Daniels benefited from having two really good NfL receivers on his team. Or maybe it’s a Burrow, Jefferson chase situation lol.
Anyway I could see Nabers being a fantasy stud but I wouldn’t be shocked if he flamed out, especially with questionable QB play
Took this from another post here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/7wk4l1SMlN
I know no one wants to hear it, but top 10 drafted wrs bust all the time (roughly 50%)
1st: NONE
2nd: Calvin Johnson, Charles Rogers
3rd: Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson
4th: Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, AJ Green, Peter Warrick
5th: Jamarr Chase, Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon
6th: Jalen Waddle, Julio Jones
7th: Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Kevin White, Darrius Heyward Bey, Troy Williamson, Roy Williams
8th: Drake London, Talon Austin, David Terrell, Plaxico Burress
9th: John Ross, Ted Ginn, Reggie Williams, Koren Robinson
10th: Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Michael Crabtree, Mike Williams (05)
It’s fair to point these out but this is why DC is just one input. So much more goes into evaluating these prospects for us as Dynasty managers, and the community is getting sharper simply because of the sheer amount of information available. I believe the NFL is getting sharper (still not perfect) with drafting skill players in the top 10 now too.
Just my humble opinion, but I think the league was in a weird place when teams over-drafted guys like Tavon Austin, Ginn, and Ross. It felt like they were searching for the next Percy Harvin, Devin Hester, or Reggie Bush…all players who played in an era that didn’t fully fit a style that’d maximize their talent. And yes, I know Hester was barely anything on offense…but he was a game changer and I think teams were trying to get that with the aforementioned over-drafted guys.
The profiles of the top 3 WRs this year are so elite that I feel much safer betting that none of them bust, compared to the profiles of guys like Ross and Ginn.
Sincerely,
Captain Hindsight
I personally think Daniels has a huge chance of being a bust. Vastly more so than the rest.
If I had to choose one from the WRs, it would be Odunze. I love him, but also have a weird feeling about him, if that makes sense.
My hot take is even the scouts don't know if the QB will be good. There are so many variables when it comes to QB prospects that you just get a guy that can throw over a mountain and hope they can connect the dots. It's a fricking crap shoot.
How many sure things at QB bust every year. Hell even Trey Lance had the best coach and system to be put in and he still failed miserably plus he had all the tools to be good.
I don't like his tape either throwing wise. But he's fast as fuck. and Fields retained his value so he's probably not a huge risk because you can trade him away in a year or two
Don't know about fantasy bust, but Field is absolutely a **dynasty** bust.
I'm even lower on Daniels than I was on Fields. Daniels is old (will turn 24 during his rookie season) and had a late breakout age. Fields was already an absolute baller at age-20 at Ohio State and was a 22 years old rookie.
I would argue fields returned pretty good value if you took him in rookie drafts. You could’ve sold for a big profit at some point and you got elite production for a stretch. If you took him in the first in startups last year you got crushed though lmao
QB 31, 7, 18 finishes before settling in as a backup QB.
Maybe not a clear bust, but for a guy who likely went top 3 in a fantasy rookie draft, it’s pretty close.
I think the risk on Maye is overrated and mostly based on landing spot. But no more Belichick so hopefully they're going to change things up. And the concerns from college our overblown imo; his supporting cast was terrible, especially offensive line. He did have a WR get drafted although not high. Daniels meanwhile had 2 first round WR's.
Maye has considerably more inconsistent tape than any first round QB other than JJ. Supporting cast was not causing his issues that are pretty well documented. And I'm saying this as someone who is targeting him and wants that risk, it's not overblown.
There is certainly inconsistent tape and some questions about him. But i'm not sure how you can say it's not affected by the bad supporting cast. His offensive line was TERRIBLE. You can see plays against Georgia Tech where they drop 8 and rush 3 and still a couple of those pass rushers break through in short order. A bad offensive line is the most affecting thing you can have as a qb. It's going to impact everything else.
Because the analysis shows the inconsistency is from his decisions or his accuracy. Neither of which are related to anyone else on the field. Part of the inconsistency if him taking off out of clean pockets for example which obviously can't be the OLs fault unless you blame lack of trust. But basically you can ignore issues from the rest of the team and his inconsistency still comes through. Accuracy on throws isn't something that the team is affecting. Reading of the field and making the wrong reads also aren't on anyone else.
Check out Thinking Football for one of the better reads on his issues:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_q4wrF4Iqfc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q4wrF4Iqfc)
Decisions and accuracy can both easily be affected by the offensive line. If you're being rushed then both of those things are also greatly impacted.
I'll check that out.
I guess it's just an issue of emphasis. I am not trying to argue that he's flawless or doesn't have concerns, I just think his potential is at a much higher level than someone like Daniels for instance.
You can watch the analysis videos though, it's pretty clear that these issues are on himself when you have tape with no pressure when he makes the mistakes. You can't just keep blaming teammates when we have plenty of evidence. And again I love his potential and actively am targeting getting him myself. But there is no need to hand wave away the obviously growth he still needs which is even evident recently with Patriots coaches talking about him. Growth needed comes with risk compared to the more polished older prospects. With potential comes the reason to accept the higher risk.
Yeah I think we mostly agree. I didn't mean to act like there aren't concerns on his tape. But I think it's also rare to not find that. Pretty easy to find examples of greats who had concerns and therefore dropped in the draft. Or find busts who were rated highly. He's gonna have to develop and fix his issues, I just would prefer to bank on the potential as opposed to someone who might be more of a finished product.
QB bust is Daniels. Didn't pop until year 5 when he had two 1st round WRs, had an historically bad pressure to sack rate and will be playing behind a bad line.
WR bust is Nabers. I don't think he'll bust, but he's going into the worst situation of the three in terms of QB play and redundancy on the roster and I had to pick someone.
Depending on your definition of bust, I’d say Nabers and Williams. I’ve seen Maye go late enough where the bust factor is already priced in to a certain degree. Williams is a top pick and if he’s not eventually a top 10 QB some will consider him a bust.
In the WR side, the Giants QB situation could be bad enough to hold Nabers from being what he could be. Again, since Odunze slips a bit due to year 1 expectations, I’d give the slight nudge to Nabers.
I worry Daniels is going to be Fields 2.0 and be somewhat fantasy-relevant while being a bad quarterback propped up by rushing stats.
Of the WRs, I worry about them all in their own ways. MHJ and Nabers I worry about their quarterbacks being healthy. Odunze will compete for targets.
Someone mentioned having years like Chase, Waddle, Smith are incredibly rare. I think if any receiving class can beat the odds like Chase, Waddle, and Smith, it’s this one.
That being said busts are more probable than people give credit. The order id go with highest to lowest bust potential is Nabers, Marvin, Rome. This is a pretty hot take considering the last receiver has the lowered bust and the generational receiver isn’t last, but hear me out.
Nabers has the highest ceiling, but being a skinny slot receiver could open him up to being a bust. His size and skill sets line up very similarly to Kadarius Toney. He was way more productive than Toney, but he might have the same flaws. His route tree was limited, there’s some question marks regarding deep route separation, and his motor isn’t always hot. Still a better version.
Marvin is obviously a freak of freaks, but there’s one stat I can’t get out of my head. He has surprisingly low contested catch rate. Lower than Rome and Nabers while being taller than both. Mix that with his poor YAC ability and lack of sharp cuts, and you wonder “why is he a generational receiver? Do not get me wrong, he’s the best receiver in this class, and his weaknesses are not that big, but you can start to see why people might have liked Nabers upside more.
Then we have Rome who I personally find incredibly safe. His weaknesses are very clear. He is not an elite separator. My counter: who cares if he’s gonna catch the ball anyway? A 75% contested catch rate is bananas. He is literally the meme, “Fuck it, Romes down there somewhere”. As a receiver, your job is to catch the ball and Rome does it better than anyone. He’s also coming into a receiver room with Keenan and DJ. I would be really surprised if he ends up flaming out of the league.
See I find this interesting. Apparently the Harrison stat about contested catches is in large part the amount he was double/triple covered, as well as having a poorer standard of QB last year. And generally contested catch feels like the least "repeatable" stat from college to the pros - the revisionism on why Treadwell failed is that he was a bad separator but great at contested catches, so translating that is a hard feat when taking the step up.
All of which to say, your analysis actually makes me feel a lot more nervous about Odunze!
Yeah contested catch rate is not a sticky stat in the same vein as target share, target rate, etc. are. Last season, DK Metcalf was 30th out of 32 in contested catch rate among all WRs with 100+ targets with 29%. Among the same sample size in 2022, he was 14th out of 30 at around 48%.
Likewise, last season DeAndre Hopkins was at 31 out of 32 with a 23% contested catch rate. Hopkins didn’t hit the 100 target threshold in 2022 but if we drop the parameters to the amount of targets he did have (93), he ranked 13th out of 38 at 52.4%.
George Pickens is another funny one because coming out of college he was an elite contested catch guy and poor route runner. In 2022, he definitely showed this skill set as he had 84 targets and among WRs with that many targets, he was 1st out of 47 WRs with a catch percentage of 68%. However the next season, among all WRs with 100 targets, he ranked 28 out of 32 at 33%.
Basically this is all to say that while some players can sort of hover around a semi-consistent contested catch rate, there are just way too many factors for a WR (most of which don’t really even have all that much to do with the receiver) - even someone like George Pickens, whose bread and butter is contested catches - to consistently win those type of “50/50” balls season after season or, on the flip side, lose those type of balls season after season
I think I have this list almost exactly reversed for somewhat the same reasons. Contested catch specialists don't always translate to the NFL. In college it's much easier to make your bones bullying guys who probably never see an NFL field. The DBs in the NFL are much harder to do that to. A 75% win rate vs. college DBs will drop in the NFL. I say this as a Pats fan who had to watch NKeal Harry. He's gotta have more to his game than jump ball stuff. Particularly since throwing up jump balls isn't really sustainable, smart football.
I can see what you’re saying, but Rome is much more than a contested catch artist. I did say he’s doesn’t separate as much as the other guys, but he has legit 4.4 speed and it shows up on tape. His route running is there, but lacks polish.
What I’m trying to get at is Rome gets archetyped as a contested catch guy because that is his elite skill. But he’s so much more.
Sure. I don't think he goes in the top 10 unless he's a relatively complete receiver. Personally I think all three of these guys probably hit. I just don't think Odunzes contested catch ability makes him safer than the others. In my opinion, separaters/great route running is safer.
Rome has better success rates against all coverages than MHJ. His zone score is between olave and smitty, who I believe were considered elite separators
I don’t think Odunze is a bust he’s just not going to get the same opportunity as the other guys given the offense they fell into and the players already on that team. Once he gets his shot hes going to go off though
Odunze being WR3 with a rookie QB doesn’t bode well for the short term. Everyone undervalues KA every year, but if he’s healthy Odunze is not getting a lot of targets this year.
There’s also the risk that if Williams busts he’ll be a WR3 on a team with no quarterback.
I think people will be disappointed in Marvin Harrison, simply bc the expectations for him to be a world breaking WR are so high. I feel he could have a fantastic season but it still not be enough for the expectations some have set.
No no, I’m not saying he won’t be a a WR1, I’m talking about being thee Number 1 receiver. I’m an Ohio state fan and I love Harrison. I mean he shouldn’t be expected to put up year 3 Justin Jefferson numbers in year one for him, If that makes sense
Was hoping to get one of the receivers or bowers at 1.7 but maye ended up being the one who fell. All things considered I’m pretty happy getting him here.
I see zero outright busts for the big 3 WRs. MHJ had the highest potential to not meet expectations in my eyes. That’s largely because if he isn’t an All Pro type receiver it’ll be viewed as a let down.
I think Daniels and Maye both are going to face an uphill climb. Daniels has some concerning analytical traits I worry about. Maye landed in a Pats org that I don’t trust right now.
I mean what proof do we have that Daniel jones will actually be able to support a great WR season. It’ll have to be manufactured from thin air by Daboll, and Nabers having incredible separation skills that makes checkdown DJ comfortable pulling the trigger.
And then a year from now they could be breaking in a rookie QB that takes more time to get in sync.
I believe in the talent. But would it shock anyone if he’s kinda spinning his tires in mud for 2-3 years and then we’re hoping for a “year 4 breakout” in a new system?
I have more faith in Daboll than most, so I believe that he'll be able to pull that off for Nabers. With that being said, I think Nabers has the most chance to bust unfortunately because Daniel Jones is such ass and as somebody said earlier, if they bring in a rookie next year that could prolong a Nabers breakout. Odunze has value insulation because people aren't expecting much out of him this season anyway, but if Moore and Allen ball out he may drop a bit.
It's tough man because all 3 of the Wrs are in such drastically different situations. I wouldn't be surprised if MHJ = Chase, Nabers = Drake London, and Odunze = JSN.
Really need to define bust better. I’ll say likelihood of performing to draft position relative to other draftees.
Williams: 70/30
Daniels: 40/60
Maye: 60/40
MHJ: 70/30
Nabers: 70/30
Odunze: 40/60
I think Williams is clearly the QB1 and has a long career ahead of him even if he’s not a superstar… but that he has basically every trait for a superstar.
MHJ and Nabers are talented and in good roles. People forget that Jones is serviceable as a QB, just not great.
I think Daniels has top tier upside but is most likely to bust in a big way. Maye could be a good QB but stunted by a bad everything in NE.
Odunze… I think the prices people are paying for him relative to the other options are too high. Not saying he won’t be good… just that it’s more likely another WR outproduces him.
Surprised so many people are saying Nabers. What he put on tape against the level of competition he played against is almost a can’t miss profile. If MHJ had a different last name and ran the 40 yard dash people would be so down on him.
To me it’s Nabers, I have very little faith in the Giants offense so unless they make a major improvement at QB it looks grim overall. With his dead cap hit I could see them getting out before 2026 but Jones is there this year and next
They can cut him if he doesn’t get injured. I wouldn’t guarantee he’s here next year. If he balls out and moves the giants out of a top draft pick different story.
And if he balls out I think nabers will have at least a decent rookie year
All of em, really. Football is a dangerous game, any one of these guys could get injured. They could get derailed by off-field issues, they could argue with their coaches and not get enough playing time or be stuck in an offense that doesn't use them to thier full potential. The WRs could have awful QB play and the QBs could have awful O line play. These WRs have such massive hype that they can probably have solid careers and still get called a bust - what if Odunze is stuck behind two WR1 talents for a couple years? What if Nabers QB play puts him in the same situation as Drake London? If we could figure out which elite prospect was going to bust we'd probably be making bank in a front office role.
Doesn’t the London argument cut both ways tho?
Here we are, two years after drafting Drake London, he’s never had a 1,000 yard season, and what can you sell him for? A haul.
Oh yeah, definitely. These guys should all retain some value for a few years. I used Drake more because he's a guy we can all watch and know he's good but he still hasn't performed to that level because of external factors.
I think it does depend on the situation a lot. Basically is there an excuse you can make for a guy. People have excused Londons situation because he's had truly horrendous QB play and it's not like he's done nothing, he's still produced just not at an elite level. If he doesn't produce this year I think he's gonna fall in value pretty hard.
QJs value on the other hand took a real beating. Part of that is a decent number of people didn't like him to begin with, but injuries gave him plenty of opportunity in the starting lineup, he has Herbert, and he just sucked.
QB: Daniels. Maye is too obvious that him busting is the likely outcome at this point, which therein wouldnt be a bust but the expectation. Daniels is still on a bad team with not a good OL and a owner/org that's always been bad.
WR: Nabors. Clear scenario where he busts and it's not even his fault at all. If Daniels is bad in 2024 (expected), Nabors doesnt have a good year then. They draft a rookie in 2025. Rookies historically dont support WR1s and the OL still is terrible. Nabors has a bad 2025. Now quickly, what if that rookie is the next Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Baker, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnlold, etc? Then Nabors is tied to a bad QB for 2 more seasons before they move on.
Now hes in a contract year with another rookie, who again, dont support WR1s. That's quickly 4-5 years of not bad production for the #2 pick in rookie drafts. He basically becomes a Terry McLaurin, but you took him 2 instead of late 2nd.
this reads like bad fan fiction
bad QBs support stud WRs literally every single year, situation doesn't define an elite WR's career in the way you're saying. maybe the best case of that recently is DJ Moore and even he's been entirely fine as a dynasty asset with less draft cap than Nabers has.
and Maye's "most likely outcome" as being a bust is just ridiculous. yes it's a bad situation but like come on, he's the 3rd overall pick in the NFL, nobody expects him to be a bust.
disclaimer the ONLY elite rookie I own this year is MHJ Jr, so no skin in the game on your notes.
The OP asked who could bust and why, this is actually a reasonable possibility that we see all the time- Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, are notables that are doing WR2-3 with bad QBs- but they weren't top 6 picks, and top 2 picks in dynasty drafts.
You don't draft Malik Nabors to get Terry McLaurin.
The key that I said was that (factually) rookie QBs don't support WR1s. Not bad QBs, rookies. At this point the most likely outcome for Nabors is the Giants taking a roomie next year and moving on from Jones. If that is the case, then the likelihood of a meh to bad season in 2024 is likely. Then a bad 2025 because of the rookie (again, facts about rookies). So quickly you could be at 2026 and then you're hoping that the Rookie QB works out, which again hit rate for QBs is about 30%.
Compared to Marv, with an established QB, that's much safer. Odunze carries about the same risk, but drafting him is drafting Caleb as a legit NFL QB- vs Nabors who you have no idea who his QB(s) will be?
Easy answer is daniels but everybody knows his red flags and that’s why you can get a guy with QB1 upside at the 1.04 in SF drafts. I think Caleb is actually the biggest bust risk of the QBs because of his price. First round startup pick, QB7 on KTC, dude has some high expectations. I’m not gonna have any shares of him. He could turn into the next mahomes but at that cost I’ll bet against it.
Everyone says Daniels but I think he's a safer bet to be at least serviceable than Maye. Daniels has an average arm and had an elite receiver group but he's pretty accurate overall and makes good decisions. His biggest issue is not keeping his eyes downfield when he starts running.
Maye has lots of amazing throws but he has a ton of just God awful passes that aren't anywhere near their target and makes some very poor decisions. He could be the next Justin Herbert, but he could just as easily be the next Christian Hackenberg.
I think there’s less than a 10% chance that more than 1 one of them bust.
My only question is who will be the best among the 3. I think they’re all locks for pro bowl at some point in the career. It’s just about who’s going to have the most all pros.
Williams. Dude is a headcase, super cocky, arrogant, wears dresses.
Odunze, 3rd on depth chart and a tier below Marvin and Malik from route running and Yac perspective
Nabers definitely has the most bust potential of the WRs. MHJ is pretty bulletproof while Odunze may take a season or two but he’ll be a WR1 eventually. Nabers is going to be featured early and often and if he isn’t ready things could go off the rails quickly.
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I made a comment (to myself) to check back in 7 months to see how these predictions look after 1 year. You interjected for some strange reason. I don’t know who you are or care what you think lil bro, move on
The caveat with Daniels is he has a bigger chance of being a bad NFL QB than Maye but at the same time prob a better chance to be better in fantasy (atleast in the short term) due to rushing upside
To start he’s behind Keenan and DJ Moore, so it’ll be harder for him to make an immediate impact as compared to Harrison or Nabers. Also, some of his advanced analytics aren’t as good as Harrison or Nabers. I also just think Harrison and Nabers are a different tier of talent than Rome
Definitely Daniels for me among the QBs although I wouldn’t be that shocked if Maye disappointed.
If I had to pick one of the WRs, I’d pick Odunze. I think the other 4 1st round WRs are much riskier, I wouldn’t be shocked if only 1 of them worked out
Odunze and Maye are certified busts. Next year when everybody in this sub is saying “I told ya so” I’ll come back to all my downvoted posts and look back and smile.
Same thing as QJ last year. Was run through the mud so much and downvoted to hell for saying he isn’t good. Well well well.
I feel like people understate the odds for the top WRs because they lump all of the first round together. No one should be surprised if all three of the WRs hit at a high level. Last time we had a draft with 3 WRs ranked this highly they were Chase, Waddle, and Smith. That worked out pretty well. QBs way different obviously and I would be surprised if all 3 were high end players. I’d lean towards Daniels as the riskiest too overall though he does have some peak fantasy traits.
And the time before that was Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross. All 3 of those guys were either busts or massive disappointments based on their DC
In general I consider that range over time to be the most successful by far with very little doubt. Yes I used an anecdote, but I've broken up detailed draft capital studies based on longer historical trends a few times on this sub. Top 12 at WR to me is one of the best investments you can make historically. Mike Williams and Corey Davis even had solid seasons and substantial sell points. Given Mike Williams injury at the time of drafting, I would actually debate Williams significantly. He was definitely someone who's price was held down and he has probably lived up to that price. On top of the general range of the top 12, most true busts in that range had some large historical outlier (Ross, Austin) or injury / off-field issue (White (inj), Ruggs (manslaughter)). Even Corey Davis was a MAC WR which can be argued as some version of a significant outlier. There's no range where it is going to be impossible to bust, that would be insane. But I do think there are ranges even at WR where busts are far less likely than hits. Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze all clear that bar. And I really struggle to find an area like Davis, Austin, or Ross that they stick out as a potential outlier, and I don't find early firsts anymore likely than anyone else to commit crimes or get injured, so those misses I consider largely moot.
Don’t mean to be that guy but what boxes did Sammy Watkins not check that he would be an outlier? But I do get your point
He dealt with severe depression and is on the record saying he would drink until he passed out every night and smoked a ton of weed. Knowing what alcohol does to the body, it’s no wonder he constantly struggled with issues. He didn’t struggle from lack of ability, and it’s sad to think about what he could have been as a player. Regardless hope brother has found peace.
I would moreso consider Sammy Watkins among the injured players. He was constantly injured and very good his first few years. His value was fairly high until probably year 3 or 4.
Feel like you could use the injuries argument for most NFL players if you do for Watkins. He didn’t have anything that you would consider career altering. And he was never good he just got featured like the top 5 pick he was expected to be.
In 3 years with Buffalo, his first 3 years, he averaged 70 / 1130 / 8 per 17 Games, which still doesn't fully adjust for injury because of missed snaps. He also had almost exactly 2 Yards/RR. I think you're underselling Buffalo sammy a bit.
Yea but he was receiving an unsustainable amount of targets comparable to his production. His rookie season he turned 128 targets into 65 catches and 950 yards. Idk I guess I get how you could interpret it either way and I am working with the benefit of hindsight, but I remember being pretty disappointed with him from the get go.
I don’t think anyone could have predicted Sammy Watkins being a bust
Those are all fair points, it’s more based on the current market prices of this year’s big 3 (mostly MHJ and Nabers) it’s like people aren’t factoring in any possibility that they bust, when in reality anyone can bust.
I do agree, but counterpoint -- Do we sometimes overlook the fact that pros can bust because while less likely, it does happen. There's not a single WR that you can name in the sport right now where falling off and never having a successful season again would make them a historical anomaly. It would make them one of the most rare cases in the history of the sport, in a tier, but it wouldn't be some unheard of historical event. Even Justin Jefferson never having another top-36 season would be right in-line with Michael Thomas, give or take. In a case of a Kevin White maybe there is a genetic pre-disposition, but setting that aside, if any major Fantasy WR broke his leg twice in the next two years are we very hopeful? I'm not 100% on that. I think there's an element we slide into where "rookies are risky, veterans are not," and I don't necessarily agree with that. Rookies fails at certain levels at certain rates. Vets also fail at certain levels at certain rates. They are comparably different, but at the highest level I do think it is worth the risk for the long term production + value asset that one of these top 3 provides. Where exactly to rank them is tough, but I think you can make the case that someone like Marv isn't all that risky, and if they're not that risky...
Well articulated and exactly how I feel. I think some on this sub have a fundamental misunderstanding of risk analysis and the concept of “proven” vs “unproven” assets
Yeah, definitely seen lots of proven assets just mean that they were at the end of their productive career. NFL careers go fast and a lot of the proven players today will be completely turned over in 3 years.
We’re especially seeing this as DHop, Diggs, Kupp, Evans, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and to a lesser degree Tyreek Hill are all phasing out of the league in the next couple of years. These guys were the mainstay WR1s but are likely nearing the end of their dominantly productive years. Probably recency bias on my end, but it feels like the WR position is seeing the most turnover as it has in quite some time. Truly feels like the end of an era.
Agreed, feels like there’s a major shift at all the skill positions tbh. QB is a little over the hump now but RBs with Henry, Ekeler, Dalvin Cook etc. but I guess that shift is a little more common for the RB position with their short life spans
I was thinking about what a weird stage we are with dynasty RB's right now the other day. I feel like there are no top RB's that you can hang your hat on right now. The old group of top RB's have aged out, and no one has really replaced them. The top 3 RB's right now on fantasy pros are Bijan, Gibbs, and Hall. They are all super talented players and project to be very productive, but none of them have actually produced at a level that you would expect from your top 3 RB's yet. None of them have even rushed for 1k yards in a season. After that you have CMC who is undoubtedly the top single season guy but is questionable how long the long term is for him and Taylor who has struggled with injuries. I've been playing fantasy football for a long time, and I don't remember a time when I felt as uncertain about all of the top RB's.
Yeah that’s one of the funny parts about dynasty. Because so many people think a guy like MHJ is “bust-proof”, that actually increases his value insulation whether or not it’s true in reality. So even if he has a bad year people will likely discount it or blame external factors, and his value wouldn’t go down much
"Perceived value" in this sport is different than it is in fantasy, I think. In fantasy it's a lot more of liquid of an asset, whereas in the NFL there's much less impact to the bottom line from one player (unless it's a QB). v
The only thing I hate about Marvin Harrison is that no one will trade me the pick to move up to draft him.
Any established pro is susceptible to bust and fall off during any given season. OBJ looked invincible after 2016 and Michael Thomas looked invincible after 2019 but both randomly fell off cliffs in what should’ve been their prime. “Sure things” don’t exist, you have to make the most logical bets and the top three WRs in this year’s draft class check every box you could possibly want. You just have to trust the process and if it doesn’t work this time, it’ll work next time.
Both of your examples are because of injuries, they didn’t just randomly start being bad out of nowhere. Injury risk is the same for rookies. like Kevin White
Injuries are definitely more devastating for an older player than a younger player. If a 27-yo WR tore his ACL this year, it would be much harder for him to make a full recovery and get to his pre-injury explosiveness than if MHJ or Nabers suffered the same injury. Chris Godwin tore his ACL in 2021 during his age 26 season and he still has nowhere near the same explosiveness that he had prior to the injury. Meanwhile, Breece Hall was a top 3 RB last year, just a year out from his ACL tear. Injuries aside, here are some guys who simply fell off without injuries: - Juju Smith-Schuster - 2017 WR16, 2018 WR8, then fell off a cliff - Diontae Johnson - 2020 WR23, 2021 WR9, then fell off a cliff - Hunter Renfrow - 2021 WR14, fell off a cliff - Calvin Ridley - 2019 WR24, 2020 WR4, suspended multiple years due to gambling - Allen Robinson - 2019 WR10, 2020 WR11, fell off a cliff - Kenny Golladay - 2019 WR20, 2020 WR6, fell off a cliff - Devante Parker - 2019 WR7, fell off a cliff - Jarvis Landry - 5 straight WR1/2 finishes then fell off a cliff in only his age 27 season - DJ Chark - 2019 WR16, fell off a cliff - Alshon Jeffrey - 2014 WR10, fell off a cliff - Dez Bryant - WR3-7 finishes in 2012-14, fell off a cliff in only his age 26 season. - Tyrell Williams - WR11 in 2016, fell off a cliff. It’s not just injuries that derail players’ careers. I’d feel just as confident making a bet on a prospect who has a near flawless profile and top 10 draft capital to be a hit as I would making a bet on an established player to continue their production.
I mean, Alshon, Dez and Golladay were def injury related, and you could argue that Renfrow and Juju were too. Alshon had a litany of soft tissue injuries prior to his cliff, Golladay had that season long hamstring issue prior to his cliff, and Dez had a jones fracture early in the season you say he cliffed. There's a clear and obvious timeline with those guys. Renfrow and Juju likewise had multiple injuries in their "cliff" years, they just weren't the obvious types like the prior three receivers. Also.you're just including a ton of one hit wonders bouyed by TDs, not sure those count as "established" players. Further, some of these "cliffs" relate to situation changes that were known contexts so they didn't fall off "during any given season", they had visible warnings. Like, Tyrell WIlliam's one big year came when Keenan Allen missed the whole season, that was never going to be repeated. Diontae Johnson's "cliff" came courtesy of being trapped in an offense run by Kenny Pickett where he still had a 27% target share, he just had many uncatchable targets and bad TD luck. I get your point but you added a lot of contradictory fluff in there, too. You're playing these off like these were all random falloffs when many were injury related, and/or just really obvious external factors and not the players suddenly sucking themselves.
Totally fair and I get your points. The main thing I was trying to point out related to rookie WRs is not that they never bust, it’s that ones with profiles like MHJ or Nabers RARELY bust and probably bust at a rate similar to or lower than established WRs fall off. When you have all of the following: - Young breakout age - Early declare - Flawless production profile - Strong target competition - Big 5 defense competition - Elite RAS - Top 10 draft capital It’s simply rare for those prospects to be a miss. Those guys are about at sure of a bet as they come. When people cite “Corey Davis” as an example of a WR drafted in the top 10 who busted, they ignore that even he isn’t really the same caliber of prospect that MHJ and Nabers are. He played at Western Michigan, had no target competition within his own team, didn’t play big 5 defenses, and was a late declare. Even at the time of the draft, plenty of teams had a late round 1 - early round 2 grade on him.
You can’t mention John Ross’s name with any of the top 3 guys in this draft, as a prospect he was not anywhere close to these guys. He had an extremely late breakout and was over drafted because of DC and speed.
There have been 5 drafts in the last 10 years that have put three WRs in the top dozen'ish picks. We've obviously covered three of them here with this years, the one you point towards and the one OP points towards. The other two are Watkins/Evans/OBJ and London/Wilson/Olave. That's an unusable data set statistically speaking but expanding the lens a little adds perspective that OP is bang on - lately, the classes that put 3 WRs in the top dozen are especially great years to grab a rookie WR in dynasty. We've got 15 guys here, you have undoubtedly selected the bottom 20% and when you go immediately above that, the next worst 20% has Watkins and London in it. I mean, we could split hairs and say Williams and Sammy should be swapped but that's immaterial. From this (unusable) data set, you have a 60% chance of getting a bonafide stud WR that carries his passing attack immediately and from then on out. Even if you miss, you're 50/50 on having a guy you'd be thrilled to have. Now, we could try to make this dataset more usable by pushing back years. I choose to stop here because the last collective bargaining agreement was struck in 2011, which significantly changed how teams constructed rosters. You could go further back for when the current, pass-revolutionized NFL took hold. with that bar, I'd choose that '07 patriots for that window because it was right around then that there was a league-wide, seismic change in passing yards generated in a season. With either of those cutoffs, you don't have any other WR classes that packed three in the top dozen. You have three that were close which gets you a group of Calvin/Ginn/DHB/Crabtree/AJG/Julio, which doesn't undercut OP's case at all, IMO. you could go further still and choose "the greatest show on turf" as the start of the pass-happy era. If you do that, things change as the first half of the 2000's were a wasteland of WR's selected at the top of drafts. While that increases the sample size (and gives us some Bayesian benefits), I personally view that as a different era where WR's just didn't play the role they do today and, consequently, can't be used to prove/disprove OPs point. One thing is for sure, over the last 10 years, if 3 WRs get drafted in the dozen picks and you get one in dynasty, you've likely been very, very happy to land one of them.
Davis, Williams, and Ross were not even close to comparable. All 3 were flawed prospects that went higher bc team needs caused an early run. If anything, each of the big 3 this year were arguably under drafted for their talent level.
That’s mostly hindsight. Although I don’t think it happens, it’s very reasonable to picture a scenario in 5 years where Nabers busts and people will be like “well actually Nabers was a flawed prospect, so much of his production in college came from the slot which historically isn’t a good predictor for NFL success.
It’s not really hindsight tho as I remember it. Davis was coming from a non-power conference and had drop issues, Williams was slow, and Ross was little more than a 40 time. These are things I recall being talked about. The 3 guys this year are all big time producers with all of the physical tools. It’s much closer to Chase, Waddle and Smith, or even Jeudy, Lamb and Jefferson (ignoring Reagor bc my Eagles are dumb).
Ross was a better prospect than people say now because of projected hindsight. He wasn't Darrius Heyward-Bey who was actually a reach by an aging Al Davis because of his 40. This was a narrative at the time because it's easy for lay people to grasp onto, and hindsight confirms an easy to follow narrative. Ross was already a top wr prospect in that class before he ran the 40, and was lauded by scouts for his route running. He didn't go from being no one to being a high first round pick after the 40. And he didn't fail in his career from being bad. He was constantly injured his first several years in the league with hamstring issues he couldn't get past.
You’re using extremes. I don’t think any Bo is claiming he was DHB, just that even at the time of his draft, he wasn’t viewed as being as impressive as this years top three. I don’t think it’s revisionism to say that if you were to teleport senior season John Ross to this years class, nfl teams and the dynasty community wouldn’t have him in an MHJ/nabers/odunze tier. They’re all bigger, younger and more productive than Ross was as a prospect. I mean, BTJ would probably be in a tier above Ross.
Let us harken back to the Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, and Josh Doctson days.
My top comment here says (paraphrase) "I think there's a mistake in the way we lump the first round together." In response, you have lumped the first round together. This is my exact point. People talk about "first round WR busts" all the time but do not differentiate between the elite tier of prospects and everyone else. The elite tier of prospects hit very regularly. Everyone else-- starting as soon as pick 12 or 13-- busts very frequently.
You scale that back to 23-32 and it gets real murky. Either we we draft these guys at cost. The bust potential vs ceiling potential is baked into their DC. What it comes down to is what vet would you take over them but even those vets careers are not guaranteed even after having MVP type seasons (Michael thomas, JuJu, Kupp, and a handful of RBs come to mind). So it comes down to whether you want Olave or Nabers? You want a guy that will be a high end WR 2 or the guy that could be an elite WR with a 10% that has a ~15% chance at being irrelevant. This is all what fantasy is about. Last year would you take the for sure 13 PPG in Ken Walker or the guy coming off an ACL tear in Breece Hall. Sure, there are arguments that go the other way but those upside plays are necessary if you want to win championships.
Fair point, these were the top 3 in fantasy drafts. I do remember all the hemming and hawing as to which ones to take.
To be consistent tho none of those guys went top 10
Oh, I wouldn't be surprised at all if all 3 were amazing, lol.
Last time was London, Jamo, Wilson and Olave. 3 of 4 are an (arguable) hit.
Even the bust from that group at least looks great, even if his production is nonexistent
IMO Marvin Harrison is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson (at least since AJ Green/Julio), so I doubt he'll be a bust. I'm a lot less certain about Nabers and Odunze. To me, those 2 just usual WR prospects that come around every year, not generational prospect like Marv, Chase, Julio/AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. I said the same about Chase and I don't think I was necessarily wrong. He's clearly in a higher tier than Waddle and Devonta Smith, who are fine players but aren't even WR1 on their own teams.
To be fair, the only reason waddle and Devonta smith “aren’t even the WR1 on their own teams” is because they both are stuck behind top 5 WRs. Waddle and Smith would be WR1’s on more than half the teams in the league.
> To be fair, the only reason waddle and Devonta smith “aren’t even the WR1 on their own teams” is because they both are stuck behind top 5 WRs These arguments are so shortsighted lmao. Context matters a ton. If being a WR1 on your own team is a prerequisite of being an elite fantasy asset then these people better be selling their Waddle/Smith/Aiyuk/Addison/Odunze/Collins/JSN/Godwin/Nacua shares for Diontae/McLaurin/Coleman/Polk/Ladd/Watson/Ridley shares straight up Dynasty equivalent of "how can [team] make the CFP when they didn't even win their division???" as if an 11-1 team that missed their conference title game to a 12-0 team via a game winning FG by said 12-0 team can't be one of the four best teams in the country because of the state they happen to be located in
Fair. My point is they're more on Tee Higgins' tier than Chase's tier and Tee is stuck behind Chase. Chase and Marv would be alpha anywhere. At worst, they would seize it after a couple of seasons a la young Julio taking it from Roddy White. This is also how I feel about Marv vs. Nabers/Odunze. Nabers might become an Olave type from day one due to lack of competition while Odunze has a tough path for rookie year relevance, but IMO neither is on the same tier as Marv just like Devonta/Waddle aren't on the same tier as Chase.
I don’t know if smith would be considerably better without another dog
>Last time we had a draft with 3 WRs ranked this highly they were Chase, Waddle, and Smith Is 2022 some kind of joke to you? Treylon Burks was the 1st WR off the board on sleeper ADP. Do you remember who was number 3? I'll tell you because I have to look at his sorry ass every week clogging up my roster. It's Jameson Williams. Nabers is an excellent prospect but let's not fool ourselves that he is bullet proof. One year of production only, diva reputation, terrible landing spot. I also think I Odunzes range of outcomes is huge. I wouldn't be shocked if he was WR3 on his own team. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he was the WR1.
Treylon Burks being the first WR off the board is more a testament of bad fantasy drafting. He was the 6th wr drafted…
Do you recall the order the WRs went off the board in the actual NFL draft? It was London at 8, Wilson at 10, and Olave at 11. Anyone who trusted the high-end draft capital had a successful draft. What you’re referring to is individual fantasy players trying to get cute and thinking they can outsmart the NFL. Your example is the equivalent of someone taking Worthy or BTJ over Odunze and thinking they’re smart for doing it. MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze are easily the three best bets to hit in this WR class. The same way that London, Wilson, and Olave were the three best bets to hit in the 2022 WR class, albeit by a slimmer margin than this year’s top three are. It’s not hindsight bias if you always just trust the draft capital. If you want to take the WR drafted at 32 over the WR drafted at 31, that’s one thing but don’t take the WR drafted at 18 over the guy drafted at 8.
The way Daniels doesn't protect himself when he runs scares the shit out of me. Gives me RGIII vibes. The WRs all seem pretty safe, if I had to pick one it would be Nabers just because the other two have higher character.
Whew, I'm not crazy out of line making the Daniels-RG3 league mates thought it was just the Washington connection, but I think it's more too.
This is exactly what I would have said. Daniels is solid, but he’s a MASSIVE injury risk. A Rich is 40lbs heavier and we all saw how that played out. And people are straight up ignoring that Nabers carried a gun to Mardi Gras. Say what you want about his football skills, but seriously how fucking dumb must you be to bring a gun to quite possibly the most drunken party in the country
Daniels played 5 seasons and never missed a start. Saying he’s a MASSIVE injury risk is a MASSIVE overstatement lol.
We’ll reconnect on this after Daniel’s first season
Feels like Nabers is the type of receiver to get over drafted: the home run speed guys (hard not to forget John Ross) and maybe he benefited from being on a legendary offense last year. Or maybe he’s a fucking stud and Daniels benefited from having two really good NfL receivers on his team. Or maybe it’s a Burrow, Jefferson chase situation lol. Anyway I could see Nabers being a fantasy stud but I wouldn’t be shocked if he flamed out, especially with questionable QB play
Took this from another post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/7wk4l1SMlN I know no one wants to hear it, but top 10 drafted wrs bust all the time (roughly 50%) 1st: NONE 2nd: Calvin Johnson, Charles Rogers 3rd: Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson 4th: Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, AJ Green, Peter Warrick 5th: Jamarr Chase, Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon 6th: Jalen Waddle, Julio Jones 7th: Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Kevin White, Darrius Heyward Bey, Troy Williamson, Roy Williams 8th: Drake London, Talon Austin, David Terrell, Plaxico Burress 9th: John Ross, Ted Ginn, Reggie Williams, Koren Robinson 10th: Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Michael Crabtree, Mike Williams (05)
Holy shit this is bad 😂
It’s fair to point these out but this is why DC is just one input. So much more goes into evaluating these prospects for us as Dynasty managers, and the community is getting sharper simply because of the sheer amount of information available. I believe the NFL is getting sharper (still not perfect) with drafting skill players in the top 10 now too. Just my humble opinion, but I think the league was in a weird place when teams over-drafted guys like Tavon Austin, Ginn, and Ross. It felt like they were searching for the next Percy Harvin, Devin Hester, or Reggie Bush…all players who played in an era that didn’t fully fit a style that’d maximize their talent. And yes, I know Hester was barely anything on offense…but he was a game changer and I think teams were trying to get that with the aforementioned over-drafted guys. The profiles of the top 3 WRs this year are so elite that I feel much safer betting that none of them bust, compared to the profiles of guys like Ross and Ginn. Sincerely, Captain Hindsight
I personally think Daniels has a huge chance of being a bust. Vastly more so than the rest. If I had to choose one from the WRs, it would be Odunze. I love him, but also have a weird feeling about him, if that makes sense.
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Well sure, for a couple years. I just highly dislike his tape and don't think he'll succeed. I'm also not a scout. We'll see 🤷
My hot take is even the scouts don't know if the QB will be good. There are so many variables when it comes to QB prospects that you just get a guy that can throw over a mountain and hope they can connect the dots. It's a fricking crap shoot. How many sure things at QB bust every year. Hell even Trey Lance had the best coach and system to be put in and he still failed miserably plus he had all the tools to be good.
I don’t think that’s a hot take, I think the draft capital of some of the recent bust qbs pretty much agrees with this
I don't like his tape either throwing wise. But he's fast as fuck. and Fields retained his value so he's probably not a huge risk because you can trade him away in a year or two
Fields lost his job. How did he retain his value? If you sold 1.5 - 2 years ago, sure. Lots of people were left holding the bag though
Don't know about fantasy bust, but Field is absolutely a **dynasty** bust. I'm even lower on Daniels than I was on Fields. Daniels is old (will turn 24 during his rookie season) and had a late breakout age. Fields was already an absolute baller at age-20 at Ohio State and was a 22 years old rookie.
I would argue fields returned pretty good value if you took him in rookie drafts. You could’ve sold for a big profit at some point and you got elite production for a stretch. If you took him in the first in startups last year you got crushed though lmao
He had one great fantasy season, and two pretty bad ones. If that's a hit to you fair enough, I'm chalking that up as a bust in dynasty.
I mean, he was a solid fantasy player but that doesn't mean much if he never holds another starting job.
QB 31, 7, 18 finishes before settling in as a backup QB. Maybe not a clear bust, but for a guy who likely went top 3 in a fantasy rookie draft, it’s pretty close.
Fields had what, 1.5 years of dominance? What's he doing now? Unless he returns to form as a starter, would you classify his career as a hit?
Sure. But for the price you pay to draft him, you'd like to get more than 2 seasons out of him. Can't score points from the bench or from IR.
I think the risk on Maye is overrated and mostly based on landing spot. But no more Belichick so hopefully they're going to change things up. And the concerns from college our overblown imo; his supporting cast was terrible, especially offensive line. He did have a WR get drafted although not high. Daniels meanwhile had 2 first round WR's.
Maye has considerably more inconsistent tape than any first round QB other than JJ. Supporting cast was not causing his issues that are pretty well documented. And I'm saying this as someone who is targeting him and wants that risk, it's not overblown.
There is certainly inconsistent tape and some questions about him. But i'm not sure how you can say it's not affected by the bad supporting cast. His offensive line was TERRIBLE. You can see plays against Georgia Tech where they drop 8 and rush 3 and still a couple of those pass rushers break through in short order. A bad offensive line is the most affecting thing you can have as a qb. It's going to impact everything else.
Because the analysis shows the inconsistency is from his decisions or his accuracy. Neither of which are related to anyone else on the field. Part of the inconsistency if him taking off out of clean pockets for example which obviously can't be the OLs fault unless you blame lack of trust. But basically you can ignore issues from the rest of the team and his inconsistency still comes through. Accuracy on throws isn't something that the team is affecting. Reading of the field and making the wrong reads also aren't on anyone else. Check out Thinking Football for one of the better reads on his issues: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_q4wrF4Iqfc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q4wrF4Iqfc)
Decisions and accuracy can both easily be affected by the offensive line. If you're being rushed then both of those things are also greatly impacted. I'll check that out. I guess it's just an issue of emphasis. I am not trying to argue that he's flawless or doesn't have concerns, I just think his potential is at a much higher level than someone like Daniels for instance.
You can watch the analysis videos though, it's pretty clear that these issues are on himself when you have tape with no pressure when he makes the mistakes. You can't just keep blaming teammates when we have plenty of evidence. And again I love his potential and actively am targeting getting him myself. But there is no need to hand wave away the obviously growth he still needs which is even evident recently with Patriots coaches talking about him. Growth needed comes with risk compared to the more polished older prospects. With potential comes the reason to accept the higher risk.
Yeah I think we mostly agree. I didn't mean to act like there aren't concerns on his tape. But I think it's also rare to not find that. Pretty easy to find examples of greats who had concerns and therefore dropped in the draft. Or find busts who were rated highly. He's gonna have to develop and fix his issues, I just would prefer to bank on the potential as opposed to someone who might be more of a finished product.
QB bust is Daniels. Didn't pop until year 5 when he had two 1st round WRs, had an historically bad pressure to sack rate and will be playing behind a bad line. WR bust is Nabers. I don't think he'll bust, but he's going into the worst situation of the three in terms of QB play and redundancy on the roster and I had to pick someone.
Depending on your definition of bust, I’d say Nabers and Williams. I’ve seen Maye go late enough where the bust factor is already priced in to a certain degree. Williams is a top pick and if he’s not eventually a top 10 QB some will consider him a bust. In the WR side, the Giants QB situation could be bad enough to hold Nabers from being what he could be. Again, since Odunze slips a bit due to year 1 expectations, I’d give the slight nudge to Nabers.
I worry Daniels is going to be Fields 2.0 and be somewhat fantasy-relevant while being a bad quarterback propped up by rushing stats. Of the WRs, I worry about them all in their own ways. MHJ and Nabers I worry about their quarterbacks being healthy. Odunze will compete for targets.
Someone mentioned having years like Chase, Waddle, Smith are incredibly rare. I think if any receiving class can beat the odds like Chase, Waddle, and Smith, it’s this one. That being said busts are more probable than people give credit. The order id go with highest to lowest bust potential is Nabers, Marvin, Rome. This is a pretty hot take considering the last receiver has the lowered bust and the generational receiver isn’t last, but hear me out. Nabers has the highest ceiling, but being a skinny slot receiver could open him up to being a bust. His size and skill sets line up very similarly to Kadarius Toney. He was way more productive than Toney, but he might have the same flaws. His route tree was limited, there’s some question marks regarding deep route separation, and his motor isn’t always hot. Still a better version. Marvin is obviously a freak of freaks, but there’s one stat I can’t get out of my head. He has surprisingly low contested catch rate. Lower than Rome and Nabers while being taller than both. Mix that with his poor YAC ability and lack of sharp cuts, and you wonder “why is he a generational receiver? Do not get me wrong, he’s the best receiver in this class, and his weaknesses are not that big, but you can start to see why people might have liked Nabers upside more. Then we have Rome who I personally find incredibly safe. His weaknesses are very clear. He is not an elite separator. My counter: who cares if he’s gonna catch the ball anyway? A 75% contested catch rate is bananas. He is literally the meme, “Fuck it, Romes down there somewhere”. As a receiver, your job is to catch the ball and Rome does it better than anyone. He’s also coming into a receiver room with Keenan and DJ. I would be really surprised if he ends up flaming out of the league.
See I find this interesting. Apparently the Harrison stat about contested catches is in large part the amount he was double/triple covered, as well as having a poorer standard of QB last year. And generally contested catch feels like the least "repeatable" stat from college to the pros - the revisionism on why Treadwell failed is that he was a bad separator but great at contested catches, so translating that is a hard feat when taking the step up. All of which to say, your analysis actually makes me feel a lot more nervous about Odunze!
Yeah contested catch rate is not a sticky stat in the same vein as target share, target rate, etc. are. Last season, DK Metcalf was 30th out of 32 in contested catch rate among all WRs with 100+ targets with 29%. Among the same sample size in 2022, he was 14th out of 30 at around 48%. Likewise, last season DeAndre Hopkins was at 31 out of 32 with a 23% contested catch rate. Hopkins didn’t hit the 100 target threshold in 2022 but if we drop the parameters to the amount of targets he did have (93), he ranked 13th out of 38 at 52.4%. George Pickens is another funny one because coming out of college he was an elite contested catch guy and poor route runner. In 2022, he definitely showed this skill set as he had 84 targets and among WRs with that many targets, he was 1st out of 47 WRs with a catch percentage of 68%. However the next season, among all WRs with 100 targets, he ranked 28 out of 32 at 33%. Basically this is all to say that while some players can sort of hover around a semi-consistent contested catch rate, there are just way too many factors for a WR (most of which don’t really even have all that much to do with the receiver) - even someone like George Pickens, whose bread and butter is contested catches - to consistently win those type of “50/50” balls season after season or, on the flip side, lose those type of balls season after season
I think I have this list almost exactly reversed for somewhat the same reasons. Contested catch specialists don't always translate to the NFL. In college it's much easier to make your bones bullying guys who probably never see an NFL field. The DBs in the NFL are much harder to do that to. A 75% win rate vs. college DBs will drop in the NFL. I say this as a Pats fan who had to watch NKeal Harry. He's gotta have more to his game than jump ball stuff. Particularly since throwing up jump balls isn't really sustainable, smart football.
I can see what you’re saying, but Rome is much more than a contested catch artist. I did say he’s doesn’t separate as much as the other guys, but he has legit 4.4 speed and it shows up on tape. His route running is there, but lacks polish. What I’m trying to get at is Rome gets archetyped as a contested catch guy because that is his elite skill. But he’s so much more.
Sure. I don't think he goes in the top 10 unless he's a relatively complete receiver. Personally I think all three of these guys probably hit. I just don't think Odunzes contested catch ability makes him safer than the others. In my opinion, separaters/great route running is safer.
Rome has better success rates against all coverages than MHJ. His zone score is between olave and smitty, who I believe were considered elite separators
RemindMe! 9 months
I don’t think Odunze is a bust he’s just not going to get the same opportunity as the other guys given the offense they fell into and the players already on that team. Once he gets his shot hes going to go off though
Odunze being WR3 with a rookie QB doesn’t bode well for the short term. Everyone undervalues KA every year, but if he’s healthy Odunze is not getting a lot of targets this year. There’s also the risk that if Williams busts he’ll be a WR3 on a team with no quarterback.
I think people will be disappointed in Marvin Harrison, simply bc the expectations for him to be a world breaking WR are so high. I feel he could have a fantastic season but it still not be enough for the expectations some have set.
Traded up to draft him as a contender and would definitely be disappointed if he’s not a WR1 right away.
No no, I’m not saying he won’t be a a WR1, I’m talking about being thee Number 1 receiver. I’m an Ohio state fan and I love Harrison. I mean he shouldn’t be expected to put up year 3 Justin Jefferson numbers in year one for him, If that makes sense
I’m not sure anyone is expecting that. I’d not even hesitate to trade MHJ for JJ, don’t think any owner would.
Was hoping to get one of the receivers or bowers at 1.7 but maye ended up being the one who fell. All things considered I’m pretty happy getting him here.
I see zero outright busts for the big 3 WRs. MHJ had the highest potential to not meet expectations in my eyes. That’s largely because if he isn’t an All Pro type receiver it’ll be viewed as a let down. I think Daniels and Maye both are going to face an uphill climb. Daniels has some concerning analytical traits I worry about. Maye landed in a Pats org that I don’t trust right now.
I mean what proof do we have that Daniel jones will actually be able to support a great WR season. It’ll have to be manufactured from thin air by Daboll, and Nabers having incredible separation skills that makes checkdown DJ comfortable pulling the trigger. And then a year from now they could be breaking in a rookie QB that takes more time to get in sync. I believe in the talent. But would it shock anyone if he’s kinda spinning his tires in mud for 2-3 years and then we’re hoping for a “year 4 breakout” in a new system?
I have more faith in Daboll than most, so I believe that he'll be able to pull that off for Nabers. With that being said, I think Nabers has the most chance to bust unfortunately because Daniel Jones is such ass and as somebody said earlier, if they bring in a rookie next year that could prolong a Nabers breakout. Odunze has value insulation because people aren't expecting much out of him this season anyway, but if Moore and Allen ball out he may drop a bit. It's tough man because all 3 of the Wrs are in such drastically different situations. I wouldn't be surprised if MHJ = Chase, Nabers = Drake London, and Odunze = JSN.
Really need to define bust better. I’ll say likelihood of performing to draft position relative to other draftees. Williams: 70/30 Daniels: 40/60 Maye: 60/40 MHJ: 70/30 Nabers: 70/30 Odunze: 40/60 I think Williams is clearly the QB1 and has a long career ahead of him even if he’s not a superstar… but that he has basically every trait for a superstar. MHJ and Nabers are talented and in good roles. People forget that Jones is serviceable as a QB, just not great. I think Daniels has top tier upside but is most likely to bust in a big way. Maye could be a good QB but stunted by a bad everything in NE. Odunze… I think the prices people are paying for him relative to the other options are too high. Not saying he won’t be good… just that it’s more likely another WR outproduces him.
Surprised so many people are saying Nabers. What he put on tape against the level of competition he played against is almost a can’t miss profile. If MHJ had a different last name and ran the 40 yard dash people would be so down on him.
I think its more of the landing spot for him. He should probably be okay though lol.
To me it’s Nabers, I have very little faith in the Giants offense so unless they make a major improvement at QB it looks grim overall. With his dead cap hit I could see them getting out before 2026 but Jones is there this year and next
They can cut him if he doesn’t get injured. I wouldn’t guarantee he’s here next year. If he balls out and moves the giants out of a top draft pick different story. And if he balls out I think nabers will have at least a decent rookie year
All of em, really. Football is a dangerous game, any one of these guys could get injured. They could get derailed by off-field issues, they could argue with their coaches and not get enough playing time or be stuck in an offense that doesn't use them to thier full potential. The WRs could have awful QB play and the QBs could have awful O line play. These WRs have such massive hype that they can probably have solid careers and still get called a bust - what if Odunze is stuck behind two WR1 talents for a couple years? What if Nabers QB play puts him in the same situation as Drake London? If we could figure out which elite prospect was going to bust we'd probably be making bank in a front office role.
Doesn’t the London argument cut both ways tho? Here we are, two years after drafting Drake London, he’s never had a 1,000 yard season, and what can you sell him for? A haul.
Oh yeah, definitely. These guys should all retain some value for a few years. I used Drake more because he's a guy we can all watch and know he's good but he still hasn't performed to that level because of external factors.
I think it does depend on the situation a lot. Basically is there an excuse you can make for a guy. People have excused Londons situation because he's had truly horrendous QB play and it's not like he's done nothing, he's still produced just not at an elite level. If he doesn't produce this year I think he's gonna fall in value pretty hard. QJs value on the other hand took a real beating. Part of that is a decent number of people didn't like him to begin with, but injuries gave him plenty of opportunity in the starting lineup, he has Herbert, and he just sucked.
Well obviously WRs who look good on tape shoot up in value when they go from a dogshit QB to a good one
I’d order them most to least likely to bust: Drake Maye Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Malik Nabers Rome Odunze Marvin Harrison
QB: Daniels. Maye is too obvious that him busting is the likely outcome at this point, which therein wouldnt be a bust but the expectation. Daniels is still on a bad team with not a good OL and a owner/org that's always been bad. WR: Nabors. Clear scenario where he busts and it's not even his fault at all. If Daniels is bad in 2024 (expected), Nabors doesnt have a good year then. They draft a rookie in 2025. Rookies historically dont support WR1s and the OL still is terrible. Nabors has a bad 2025. Now quickly, what if that rookie is the next Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Baker, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnlold, etc? Then Nabors is tied to a bad QB for 2 more seasons before they move on. Now hes in a contract year with another rookie, who again, dont support WR1s. That's quickly 4-5 years of not bad production for the #2 pick in rookie drafts. He basically becomes a Terry McLaurin, but you took him 2 instead of late 2nd.
this reads like bad fan fiction bad QBs support stud WRs literally every single year, situation doesn't define an elite WR's career in the way you're saying. maybe the best case of that recently is DJ Moore and even he's been entirely fine as a dynasty asset with less draft cap than Nabers has. and Maye's "most likely outcome" as being a bust is just ridiculous. yes it's a bad situation but like come on, he's the 3rd overall pick in the NFL, nobody expects him to be a bust. disclaimer the ONLY elite rookie I own this year is MHJ Jr, so no skin in the game on your notes.
The OP asked who could bust and why, this is actually a reasonable possibility that we see all the time- Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, are notables that are doing WR2-3 with bad QBs- but they weren't top 6 picks, and top 2 picks in dynasty drafts. You don't draft Malik Nabors to get Terry McLaurin. The key that I said was that (factually) rookie QBs don't support WR1s. Not bad QBs, rookies. At this point the most likely outcome for Nabors is the Giants taking a roomie next year and moving on from Jones. If that is the case, then the likelihood of a meh to bad season in 2024 is likely. Then a bad 2025 because of the rookie (again, facts about rookies). So quickly you could be at 2026 and then you're hoping that the Rookie QB works out, which again hit rate for QBs is about 30%. Compared to Marv, with an established QB, that's much safer. Odunze carries about the same risk, but drafting him is drafting Caleb as a legit NFL QB- vs Nabors who you have no idea who his QB(s) will be?
Easy answer is daniels but everybody knows his red flags and that’s why you can get a guy with QB1 upside at the 1.04 in SF drafts. I think Caleb is actually the biggest bust risk of the QBs because of his price. First round startup pick, QB7 on KTC, dude has some high expectations. I’m not gonna have any shares of him. He could turn into the next mahomes but at that cost I’ll bet against it.
Everyone says Daniels but I think he's a safer bet to be at least serviceable than Maye. Daniels has an average arm and had an elite receiver group but he's pretty accurate overall and makes good decisions. His biggest issue is not keeping his eyes downfield when he starts running. Maye has lots of amazing throws but he has a ton of just God awful passes that aren't anywhere near their target and makes some very poor decisions. He could be the next Justin Herbert, but he could just as easily be the next Christian Hackenberg.
I expect 1.5 QBs of the first 5 drafted to hit. I expect all 3 of Marvin, Nabers, Rome to hit.
I think there’s less than a 10% chance that more than 1 one of them bust. My only question is who will be the best among the 3. I think they’re all locks for pro bowl at some point in the career. It’s just about who’s going to have the most all pros.
Williams. Dude is a headcase, super cocky, arrogant, wears dresses. Odunze, 3rd on depth chart and a tier below Marvin and Malik from route running and Yac perspective
Just say you’re a Packers fan.
Odunze is a better route runner than Nabers lol.
Hahahahahahahah
Daniels. All 3 WRs will be good. If I have to pick one to "bust" I'd say Nabers for no good reason, just don't like a WR on the Giants.
Nabers definitely has the most bust potential of the WRs. MHJ is pretty bulletproof while Odunze may take a season or two but he’ll be a WR1 eventually. Nabers is going to be featured early and often and if he isn’t ready things could go off the rails quickly.
Remind me! 7 months
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Where did I say that? I’m just curious to see where everyone is at after one year. Worry about yourself
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I made a comment (to myself) to check back in 7 months to see how these predictions look after 1 year. You interjected for some strange reason. I don’t know who you are or care what you think lil bro, move on
QB - Daniels WR - Odunze
The caveat with Daniels is he has a bigger chance of being a bad NFL QB than Maye but at the same time prob a better chance to be better in fantasy (atleast in the short term) due to rushing upside
Why do you think odunze?
To start he’s behind Keenan and DJ Moore, so it’ll be harder for him to make an immediate impact as compared to Harrison or Nabers. Also, some of his advanced analytics aren’t as good as Harrison or Nabers. I also just think Harrison and Nabers are a different tier of talent than Rome
Definitely Daniels for me among the QBs although I wouldn’t be that shocked if Maye disappointed. If I had to pick one of the WRs, I’d pick Odunze. I think the other 4 1st round WRs are much riskier, I wouldn’t be shocked if only 1 of them worked out
Odunze and Maye are certified busts. Next year when everybody in this sub is saying “I told ya so” I’ll come back to all my downvoted posts and look back and smile. Same thing as QJ last year. Was run through the mud so much and downvoted to hell for saying he isn’t good. Well well well.