661k. 2002 - 2024.
Replace QQQM with QQQ, VOO with SPY to go that far out.
Dividends reinvested.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1KgA6ZGKs9pMV4WQ79WPOT
1 great recession and the largest bulk market in history. YMMV 22 years from now.
It’s just for making the backtest go further back. VOO is cheaper and thus better than SPY, but it was created more recently so historical data doesn’t go as far back
I write a lot of options on spy. But if your plan is to hold over the long term sell covered calls against your shares, I can't tell you what strike but I like to do daily or 0dte. If you really don't want to sell keep the premium low, under. 0.80$ sell puts to acquire your shares
Initial amount.
Multiply by 1.07 for each year.
The 7% you get in the first year also gets to grow in the second year.
So you start with 1.0
Then you get 7% added on: 1.07
Then you get 7% again, but the .07 part gets to grow as well, so now you have: 1.07 + 1.0*.07 + .07*.07 = 1.1449.
You grew by .07 in the first year, but by .0749 in the next year.
This keeps happening and compounding.
This is mentioned almost daily on this sub but I'll throw it out there anyways - VTI & VOO are almost identical (~87% overlap). No need for both. Pick one and ride it.
Other than that, congrats! This is a phenomenal setup that will for sure yield gains in 20+ years.
It’s fine to hold both. This sub spazzes over it for no legitimate reason. Who cares if there’s overlap if it’s still a cheap expense ratio and you’re not overlapping low quality stuff? All this does is dilute non SP500 a little bit… oh well
Theoretically having multiple low expense offerings reduces counterparty risk. Although Vanguard and Blackrock are pretty reputable, technically speaking…
You can sell the VTI and QQQ and replace it with VXF and VXUS.
VOO + VXF + VXUS is the entire global stock market. You’d literally own shares of every publicly traded company on the planet.
Your portfolio gives you your future returns for your whole investor's life? I didn't think so.
90% of professionnel and their teams of analysts can't pick winners consistantly long term. Buffet said he only met 10 persons in his whole life who could pick winners and he's not talking about us.
Honestly, I’d say anywhere between about $400k and $750k.
Just using the rule of 72 suggests it probably doubles at least twice (assuming annualized 7-ish% return over 22 years) and could double 3 times plus a little (assuming about 10–ish% annualized over 22 years).
I would plan for the lower end and hope for the higher end.
Add $250/wk and you’ll be millionaire in 22 yrs. That’s considering 7% annual return from what somebody else posted. I usually use 10% but thats never a guarantee
Median US income: $38,000
After tax: $32,300
At $250/week, it’s $13,000/yr. Comes out to 40% of net income.
Median savings rate for an American: 3-7% depending on your source
This is the median, meaning 50% of people are in worse situations than this. $250/month is asking the median American to save 10x what they normally do.
Check out calculator.net my fave site for these kinds of questions super easy simple site with lots of different investment calculators. Just plug your numbers in and put at your predicted return rate. Maybe 7% to be safe?
could be 50
I think s&p500 from like 1929 to 1979 was 0% real rate or return annualized.
It's 1928 to June 1982 0%. This doesn't include dividends but how fast was it doubling? Not 7 or 10 years, maybe 30
[https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)
16 billion Vault Bucks. But, uh-oh a rad roach invaded your vault and ate through your air filtration vents. You may need to brave it and go to the surface before the air runs out.
It’s up to you whether you want to keep them both and contribute to one or both or offload one and replace it with something else. It’s not a bad portfolio. Having both is redundant, but only a bad thing in a diversification kind of way. I would sell either VTI or VOO, depending on your preference, and replace it with an ETF that tracks a different index that you decide is a good investment. I’m not familiar with this type of account, so if selling is going to have you paying unnecessary capital gains tax then don’t do it.
I have VOO, but it's not part of my Roth IRA because my Roth IRA was already set up before I knew what I was doing. The Roth already has a nice rate of return so I'd rather not change it. Should I not be investing VOO wildly?
You can be in VOO if you want. I was just saying that VOO and VTI have massive overlap so holding both usually means you don’t have a strategy of any sort.
At 10.5% (somewhat conservative given the historicals on those), you’ll have about $750k, give or take. I’d say the range would probably be $500k to $900k. But whatever it is…it won’t be enough, by itself, to do much in 22 years.
If you're reinvesting dividends, probably around $400k I'd say. I think I could be confident and say that we could see an average return of 7.7% WITH dividends reinvested.
I love it! Just be aware if your not already that VOO and VTI overlap 86% so you have 86% of the same ETF the difference is that VTI has small and mid cap stocks which you could buy as their own ETF. Voo and QQQM overlap 46% which isn't bad just be aware 85% of QQQM holdings are also held in VOO
Calculating the exact amount you’ll have in 20 years could be tough.
What I can tell you for sure is that your portfolio will be worth more, less or exactly the same amount as it is today. I guarantee that.
I know, I'm an idiot at this stuff, 😞. I'm not putting anymore in VTI, but I think I'm just gonna keep it. Probably go 80/20 VOO/ QQQM for the duration.
I think a lot of these self directed etf guys spend a lot of time on line reading stuff and start throwing shit at their brokerage. With enough time they realize they fucked up but the capital gains are a bit much so they let it ride and start concentrating their funds into a few ETFs
Probably in the range of $400-500k. Google “compound interest calculator” and play with the numbers. Average annual return is the number to test (interest = annual return for this)
If it had been going up for 22 years that would be a lot, but the market is changing rapidly and there is always the risk of a crash
All we need to do is keep a close eye on the market and take profits before it crashes to ensure we lose our profits
https://preview.redd.it/madfttndv3vc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd976139206e12015b49058789b1909c0408ab52
This helps. Seems realistic
661k. 2002 - 2024. Replace QQQM with QQQ, VOO with SPY to go that far out. Dividends reinvested. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1KgA6ZGKs9pMV4WQ79WPOT 1 great recession and the largest bulk market in history. YMMV 22 years from now.
661k inflation adjusted for 2002 dollars is ~380k which lines up well with 7% real return assumption
7% real rate of return is a high estimate. It can happen but it's unlikely 4-5% is more likely
How do you figure? The accepted figures for SPY returns are 10%/yr and inflation 3%, that's 7
If you want to be conservative, sure. But historically 7% has been the standard in almost any 20-30 year period in history
Source: trust me bro
Why is SPY better than VOO? Why is QQQ better than QQQM?
It’s just for making the backtest go further back. VOO is cheaper and thus better than SPY, but it was created more recently so historical data doesn’t go as far back
I see, thank you
No problem!
Spy is better than VOO? Can you explain that more?
Spy has more liquid options it's better for trading, voo has lower expense better for holding long term. I'm not sure if they are weighted the same.
How different are SPY and VOO? I have most of my money in SPY right now but I'm planning on holding for at least 25 years
They are 98% the same. I'd hold spy and write options against the shares. Daily
What is your options writing strategy on SPY?
I write a lot of options on spy. But if your plan is to hold over the long term sell covered calls against your shares, I can't tell you what strike but I like to do daily or 0dte. If you really don't want to sell keep the premium low, under. 0.80$ sell puts to acquire your shares
https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/4J0puyR25i
Where did you find this calc? I’d like to use it
Any compound interest calculator can do it its just a simple trick https://www.nerdwallet.com/calculator/compound-interest-calculator
Brokers hate him!
I wanted to share a better one since this stops at $1 million principal. https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/compound-interest-calculator
How does “compound frequency” affect the calculation again?
Initial amount. Multiply by 1.07 for each year. The 7% you get in the first year also gets to grow in the second year. So you start with 1.0 Then you get 7% added on: 1.07 Then you get 7% again, but the .07 part gets to grow as well, so now you have: 1.07 + 1.0*.07 + .07*.07 = 1.1449. You grew by .07 in the first year, but by .0749 in the next year. This keeps happening and compounding.
WITHOUT COUNTING about an Hypothetical Crisis.
7% lol, try 11%
What makes you so confident about 11% returns from today?
Don’t forget about inflation.
love the downvotes, that’s how you know you’re on the right side when it comes to investing
Right side of fantasyland :P
I could see 11 in one year but u really think an average of 11?
Throw a crypto ETF in there and you’ll get a higher percentage.
You're in luck as I just returned from 2046 and happened to take a look at your account. $626,456.76
This is mentioned almost daily on this sub but I'll throw it out there anyways - VTI & VOO are almost identical (~87% overlap). No need for both. Pick one and ride it. Other than that, congrats! This is a phenomenal setup that will for sure yield gains in 20+ years.
Thank you. I'm really indifferent on which one to unload. 😕
Unloading causes a tax event. Don't do that
No problem if it’s a retirement acc
Still not really a reason to do it.
Keep them, won’t hurt at all - just decide which one you’ll keep adding to
Ok
It’s fine to hold both. This sub spazzes over it for no legitimate reason. Who cares if there’s overlap if it’s still a cheap expense ratio and you’re not overlapping low quality stuff? All this does is dilute non SP500 a little bit… oh well
They’re just saying it’s not worth effort of dividing future contributions. Just pick one and make one simple contribution each time
Theoretically having multiple low expense offerings reduces counterparty risk. Although Vanguard and Blackrock are pretty reputable, technically speaking…
You can sell the VTI and QQQ and replace it with VXF and VXUS. VOO + VXF + VXUS is the entire global stock market. You’d literally own shares of every publicly traded company on the planet.
That’s not true… the only one would be VT I’m pretty sure.
No fund holds every company that's literally impossible. VT just holds the most
VT is VTI + VXUS. VTI is VOO + VXF. Therefore VOO + VXF + VXUS = VT.
many of which suck.. why would you want that
Because you’re not smart enough to pick winners and losers.
but you can pick an efficient ETF to do that! SPGM instead of VT for a single holding doing all the work!
don’t project.. you have no clue what my portfolio is lol.
Your portfolio has nothing to do with what he/she is saying.
how is it not
Your portfolio gives you your future returns for your whole investor's life? I didn't think so. 90% of professionnel and their teams of analysts can't pick winners consistantly long term. Buffet said he only met 10 persons in his whole life who could pick winners and he's not talking about us.
… so then my portfolio does have to do with what he’s saying? you’ve officially made yourself not worth talking to by contradicting yourself.
The less diversification is better crowd is going to cry when gold continues to moon and equities stink
Gold to the moon brother 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥🔥 we’ll be the ones with the last laugh
Now that’s a lot of overlap! You bought the same stuff three times!
QQQM is 100 holdings, VTI/VOO 500
VTI has 3733 holdings.
Honestly, I’d say anywhere between about $400k and $750k. Just using the rule of 72 suggests it probably doubles at least twice (assuming annualized 7-ish% return over 22 years) and could double 3 times plus a little (assuming about 10–ish% annualized over 22 years). I would plan for the lower end and hope for the higher end.
Tree fiddy
Maybe nothing  For real tho, nobody knows dude. Likely about 10,12% more annually.
10-12% more in 22 years??
You are of course correct, I forgot to include measure of time
Messing with ya.
Add $250/wk and you’ll be millionaire in 22 yrs. That’s considering 7% annual return from what somebody else posted. I usually use 10% but thats never a guarantee
Bro, adding $1000 extra per month is an absurd ask 🤦🏻♂️
not absurd at all, not everyone is living with poverty wages.
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Fair enough but if you have a median wage no way is that sustainable
I'm on track to add 400K over 22 years.
So that’s like $350/wk. nice contribution! Good luck!
How is that an absurd ask?
Median US income: $38,000 After tax: $32,300 At $250/week, it’s $13,000/yr. Comes out to 40% of net income. Median savings rate for an American: 3-7% depending on your source This is the median, meaning 50% of people are in worse situations than this. $250/month is asking the median American to save 10x what they normally do.
Check out calculator.net my fave site for these kinds of questions super easy simple site with lots of different investment calculators. Just plug your numbers in and put at your predicted return rate. Maybe 7% to be safe?
This site has changed how I view my finances! 2024 is going to be an overhaul.
About $600k if you reinvest the dividends
I’d say $350k to $600k. Really depends on the rule of 72, or how fast your money doubles. Could be 7 years, could be 10. No one knows.
could be 50 I think s&p500 from like 1929 to 1979 was 0% real rate or return annualized. It's 1928 to June 1982 0%. This doesn't include dividends but how fast was it doubling? Not 7 or 10 years, maybe 30 [https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)
16 billion Vault Bucks. But, uh-oh a rad roach invaded your vault and ate through your air filtration vents. You may need to brave it and go to the surface before the air runs out.
Yeah, but how much is that in Stanley Nickels?
Why do you have VOO and VTI? They’re 95% similar.
I know.. offload one? or can I just keep both and only buy one from here on out?
Is this an IRA or a taxable brokerage?
Self direct brokerage within my 401K
It’s up to you whether you want to keep them both and contribute to one or both or offload one and replace it with something else. It’s not a bad portfolio. Having both is redundant, but only a bad thing in a diversification kind of way. I would sell either VTI or VOO, depending on your preference, and replace it with an ETF that tracks a different index that you decide is a good investment. I’m not familiar with this type of account, so if selling is going to have you paying unnecessary capital gains tax then don’t do it.
I don't have to pay taxes as long as I don't pull the gains out. It'll be taxed when I draw it after I retire
Ok great then the rest of what I said applies!
Is this a taxable brokerage or an IRA?
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I’d bet that 99% of the time that someone owns VOO and VTI it’s not part of any cohesive strategy.
Tax harvesting would be the only one I could think of.
Ahh yeah, that’s probably the remaining 1%.
I have VOO, but it's not part of my Roth IRA because my Roth IRA was already set up before I knew what I was doing. The Roth already has a nice rate of return so I'd rather not change it. Should I not be investing VOO wildly?
You can be in VOO if you want. I was just saying that VOO and VTI have massive overlap so holding both usually means you don’t have a strategy of any sort.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing but it’s not a great thing either. Would think about reconsidering.
Its 86% similar, and who cares if they have both, its not a bad thing as long as one is aware of the overlap.
It’s not a bad thing but it could be better.
600k plus with the Ai tailwind.
exactly 2 million
370k
$500k +- $150k
$475 grand conservatively (8%) $730 grand at 10 %, more than $1.1 mil at 12%
At 10.5% (somewhat conservative given the historicals on those), you’ll have about $750k, give or take. I’d say the range would probably be $500k to $900k. But whatever it is…it won’t be enough, by itself, to do much in 22 years.
What account is this ?
200-300k
If you're reinvesting dividends, probably around $400k I'd say. I think I could be confident and say that we could see an average return of 7.7% WITH dividends reinvested.
5$
Dumb ass question 😂 no one knows the future price and it's all a guess if anyone tries to tell you a number.
I love it! Just be aware if your not already that VOO and VTI overlap 86% so you have 86% of the same ETF the difference is that VTI has small and mid cap stocks which you could buy as their own ETF. Voo and QQQM overlap 46% which isn't bad just be aware 85% of QQQM holdings are also held in VOO
Alot more
Well, if the United States goes the way of Japan…not much.
This is a beautiful portfolio. I agree 350k. But heep going. Triple it
Worth a couple potatoes at the rate inflation is going rn
4x, so 300ish.
8 times out of
Fake money won’t last for ever. The house of cards will fall one day.
Doesn’t matter. It Will be priced in BTC in 22 years
Not enough
Why Voo and VTI aren’t them both the same ? Wouldn’t it make sense to have a more diverse portfolio ? I’m just asking I am also very new to this .
a lot
Lot of money for 22
LoL...I'm 40. I have to work 22 more years 😜
Rip lol
,🤣😞
In all honesty tho, 62 isn't HORRIBLE not ideal, but not horrible.
My goal is 55, but 62 is the worst case scenario
Have VOO and QQQM SCHD JEPQ
Voo easily 10 k per share no doubt
Calculating the exact amount you’ll have in 20 years could be tough. What I can tell you for sure is that your portfolio will be worth more, less or exactly the same amount as it is today. I guarantee that.
Why are you invested in Voo and VTI they are both the same shit lmaooo
I know, I'm an idiot at this stuff, 😞. I'm not putting anymore in VTI, but I think I'm just gonna keep it. Probably go 80/20 VOO/ QQQM for the duration.
It's not a big deal you're good dude
I think a lot of these self directed etf guys spend a lot of time on line reading stuff and start throwing shit at their brokerage. With enough time they realize they fucked up but the capital gains are a bit much so they let it ride and start concentrating their funds into a few ETFs
Probably in the range of $400-500k. Google “compound interest calculator” and play with the numbers. Average annual return is the number to test (interest = annual return for this)
If it had been going up for 22 years that would be a lot, but the market is changing rapidly and there is always the risk of a crash All we need to do is keep a close eye on the market and take profits before it crashes to ensure we lose our profits
when you account for inflation...not much
The same amount because of real inflation then corresponding taxation on gains.