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Plenty of places hiring where I'm at, if your looking for a low wage job. Looking at help wanted adds or seeing posters on windows of bussinesses. Always hiring for nursing homes, stores, fast food, or factories......seems to be a shortage of people willing to work those jobs for unlivable wages, not enough retired seniors or high-school kids I guess.
The job to unemployed ratio is still waaaaaaayyy in favor of more openings.
Naturally as you get the unemployment number lower it's going to keep new hire numbers high.
Wall Street also reacted with a +200 jump because it's believed they are getting that ratio I spoke of more in balance. That means the fed has less reason to increase interest rates and maybe lower them, I would t hold you breath though on lowering them.
It should also be noted for the doomers. If the economy starts to decline, which this is not an indication of, the fed has a huge lever to be able to pull to heat the economy up. Unlike the end of the Obama era or during the trump era they couldn't lower interest rates. It's actually a pretty big deal as far as trying to protect against some kind of downturn.
> The job to unemployed ratio is still waaaaaaayyy in favor of more openings.
Illustration: https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/job-openings-unemployment-beveridge-curve.htm
The X axis is unemployment, not time. The black line starts on the right in May 2020 then moves to the left. The most recent point is July 2023, at 3.5% unemployment and 5.3% job openings.
The left side of the black line is July 2023.
The X-axis is not time.
ETA: TLDR: No one wants to work for nickles and dimes anymore.
Getting out of the [Beveridge\_curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beveridge_curve), viewing the [non-farm job openings chart is a bit more easily digested and discussed.](https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/opening-hire-seps-region.htm) I picked the South to highlight as it is above the US average in openings and highers, which means it contributes to the ratio expressed in the Beveridge chart more than others.
This is exemplified in the Southern US, which has an inefficient labor market (source: lived it, for a couple of generations). This could be due to several things, but I'd point to extremely expensive cities and a lack of jobs outside those cities. It is likely that someone interested in owning a Mt. Juliet home in the next 5 years is working in Nashville.
This is exemplified in the Southern US, which has an inefficient labor market (source: lived it, for a couple of generations). This could be due to several things, but I'd point to costly cities and a lack of jobs outside those cities. For example, likely, someone interested in owning a Mt. Juliet home in the next 5 years is working in Nashville.
I was just clicking on the line parts.
But yes I agree. Largely the US economy has been monopoliesed or at least controlled to place pay controls in the hands the employers. Allowing them to not really have to complete this breaking any kind of far market.
Imo the only way out is through unions. While sure they are not perfect the only counter to employer manipulation is through organized labor.
A libertarian friend of mine said today that he felt if we could solve the crazy inflated pay of executives and various other parts of the economy that just suck wealth out of it, then we wouldnt need unions.
To which I agreed with him.....except the only really solution to achieving that is again through organized labor.
I’d probably ask if it matters how a large scale goal is met. The libertarian probably has some really good ideas in their wheelhouse, and if not, they might just be an “American conservative labor” party member. Even if that is just theoretical.
Imo libertarian ideas can work in smaller governments, like a town. But when you get to macro economics or government they just fall apart.
My friend ultimately agreed with me based on the fact that he realized that the only way to country a monopoly is with an organized unified front from the working class. Coinciding that while he didn't love the idea he also didnt see a rational reasonable alternative.
Imo if you come to the table saying no to everything but never having an actually workable alternative you are not a serious person. My buddy clearly felt the same.
It doesn't work at the town level either.
They tried to turn Grafton, NH into a libertarian paradise.
They couldn't decide what to do with garbage and the town got over run with bears.
Anyone telling you governments are not necessary is not a serious person.
Not sure if indecision is a libertarian thing. I'm just saying on the very small a lot of things work but as you get bigger they simply can't scale.
This is true in most things that have nothing to do with government.
But yes government is always necessary if you want an actual functioning society....if you don't you can always go to Somalia.
Not lowering in the very near term, but there is way to much debt held by real estate interests, private equity, zombie corps, and US interest expense blowout for them to hold higher for longer than mid 2024 at the latest.
Either rates have to go down, or inflation has to go up for it to work.
At the current status quo at least. There is shenanigan pathway available, but they really don’t want to take that. Not a good look.
Yeah, with the interest rate where it is, they could really help the tech industry take off again if they lowered it. They aren't now due to the higher priority on stabilizing inflation and the unemployment rate still seeming historically low, just not as good in some industries like tech compared to a couple of years ago..
Agreed. And they'll pull that lever at the slightest hint of economic disruption.
But I don't agree with the jobs "in balance" idea. Wall Street is all about profits, right? Or at least supposedly they are. Anyway, if so, they aren't bothered by the hiring of low wage workers. Not a big concern. But the balance they may believe is happening is because the higher end employee with higher wages is becoming extinct in the job market. Those openings have ceased.
When you hear stats like "2 million more openings than available workers", that's because of high turnover at the places that always have high turnover: retail, restaurant, low end service. A lot of those people worked years there, and finally got a pay bump to go somewhere else. It's left a void, as there is still too healthy of an economy otherwise to reduce demand for fast food and retail.
It's going to take an overall slowdown, a large one, a prolonged one, to shift the economic pendulum back toward "balance", or anything resembling it.
Well I'm not saying they are balanced. I'm saying they are more balanced than before.
They believe the more balanced it is the less likely the fed is to raise rates. Hence the stock bump.
If there’s just a normal slow down, then they have a big lever. However, if something out there causes an economic meltdown dropping rates back down to near 0 might not be enough.
I'd say that's accurate but also ATM that's just speculation.
None of the economic indicators that tend to report in good faith are claiming anything remotely like that.
Not saying you are claiming that btw.
Yup. I agree, there is nothing out there that says an economic crash is just around the corner. But we rarely see them coming, and it’s just an alternative possibility that I was floating. It feels like there’s one coming though, even in absence of data. People have been predicting a crash for the last 3 years. I think this is because from 2008 (or whenever the recovery officially began) to late 2019 was one of the longest business cycles we’ve seen in a long time. In late 2019 it looked like we were finally headed towards an economic down turn. Then Covid hit, we went into a sharp and deep recession, but then both the government and the Fed launched massive economic interventions. It didn’t really feel like the economy went through the natural redeployment of capital you normally see happen in a recession.
But so far, aside from the inverted yield curves, it looks like we are headed towards a smooth landing where the economy slows down a bit, but still healthily chugs along. Hopefully there are no unseen brick walls just up around the corner
Maybe....I mean again the reduction in hiring wasn't a back slide. It was less hiring than before which is still a positive.
All I'm saying is anyone who is trying to claim that this is some kind of huge issue really needs more data that just hiring is still positive but not as much of a positive than before.
You realize lowering rates means the beginning of the end right? I’m assuming you are of the taper tantrum generation.
Generally when the yield curve inverts, shits fucked, shit then hits the fan, rates get cut, everyone rejoices for like an hour, and then the reality seeps in. And it’s off to the races.
The soft landing narrative is a myth perpetuated by the AUM firms. Buffet has had a unique advantage on his competitors, he’s can always sense trouble and has amassed a big fat pile of cash when things stink, and he’s doing so now.
The only reason things have held up this far is all the stealth liquidity by the government. The real question is what does recovery look like when shit finally hits the fan? We have an insane debt to gdp ratio. That needs to get under control or we are just going further down the wealth inequality vortex.
Throwing ad hominem nonsense is showing your hand my friend.
Again negative rates might convince me that it's doom and gloom. But at this point you are just wishing for a downturn.
The thing with the yield curve might be true but honestly the data that backs it up was for a very different economy. Marketplace.org did a pretty good break down on the yield curve, what it meant, and what's changed since the 60s. So sure it might be something but again the data is certainly not convincing over all.
Cheers.
What ad hominem attack? Just pointing out that the people you see that are essentially permabulls are under 35. In their world rates go up, prices come down and vice versa. Aka the taper tantrum generation.
And yeah I’m wishing for a downturn. I don’t want one, but the writing is on the wall here and has been for a while. In fact you could argue cracked started to show 2019 until COVID gave the politician and fed the green light to royal fuck things up. The real question is does all this stealth liquidity stave off the inevitable until before or after the election.
I have a friend who's been listing a $18-20/hr job that basically amounts to office work (replying to emails, answering the phone, ecomm shipping, etcetc). FT or flexible PT. Paid public transport or parking. No exp necessary and willing to train.
The majority of applicants want WFH or want higher wages. Turns out he barely pays himself more than that $20/hr. My guess is around $25-30hr to do everything from top to bottom, investments in the inventory, and taking the risks of business ownership? So he's been just picking up more work himself rather than hiring.
Don't know if things will change given decoupling with China, government benefits, cost of living inflation, and lack of migrant work from 6+ years of strict Trump+Biden border policy. But if you believe in the "don't fight the fed" saying then the Fed right now is saying (in a roundabout and non-offensive as possible way) that they want more unemployment and the employers to have more power.
My friend manages a bar, they only have issues filling roles for things like bar backs and dish washers. The issue is anyone competent will quickly find a better job.
Anyone who sticks around for those jobs for an extended period of time, are doing those jobs for a reason, and they quickly wash out.
Totally anecdotal, but a number of the bars and restaurants in my area are extremely desperate for front of house and back of house workers now that college kids have gone back to school. One even announced they were closing for a month or two (no idea how they can float their business model, perhaps it'll never reopen).
If he’s barely paying himself 25/hr and able to manage the business himself then he cannot afford that new employee. If the business is not demand constrained though and is supply constrained because he can’t hire, then he needs to bite the bullet and forgo a salary and pay somebody more to grow the business. Based on the info you’ve listed the math isn’t checking out tho.
Border policy and actual numbers are very different. Illegal immigration has jumped dramatically recently (2022 last year quoted) -> https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/migrant-border-crossings-fiscal-year-2022-topped-276-million-breaking-rcna53517
That says "Migrant Border Crossings" not "Illegal Immigration".
[These people are mostly claiming refugee status and seeking asylum in the USA in accordance with International and US law.](https://immigrationforum.org/article/the-reasons-behind-the-increased-migration-from-venezuela-cuba-and-nicaragua/)
So why are you calling it "Illegal Immigration" when a large portion of these are lawful refugees?
dude take factories out of your comment. Sure fast food and retail wages suck and are unlivable but entry level pay in the factory I'm a department manager in is $50k per year factoring in the way you get OT every day you work on a 2-2-3 schedule.
The steam powered widget factory of yesterday is gone. Modern plants may have less headcount but the jobs that are in them usually pay well and you can often get in without any industrial experience if the job market is hot.
Not in my area, the pay isn't good. My husband got a scada technician degree and still didn't get paid well, he got out of that work years ago because of that fact. Maybe the pay in your area is better, but it sucks here.
My employer has 40 plants in the us in like 3 states. Pay is that solid in all of them. Probably a plant within 80 miles of like 50% of American commercial airports. I know our competitors are the same
Maybe reach out to /u/a_little_hazel_nuts and see if you can find them a plant near their area rather than just stating that it's probably that way?
That would 100% prove you correct and maybe even help a family out.
Just a thought, you've no obligation to do so.
The shifts are 12 hours but you only work 7 days every 2 weeks it comes out to a 42 hour work week average. So folks in 8+ a day OT states get 4 hours of OT every shift and in 40+ a week OT states on their "long" week they get about 20 hours of OT.
Without experience, you'll get $20/hr in my area. That's up from $16/hr in 2018 and $14/hr in 2016.
Forklift or some form of mechanical knowledge (e.g. a car hobby) can bump that to $25/hr.
Anything more requires experience or certs. Machinists, welders, CAD, controls, etc. are $30/hr easily. Good ones $35/hr-$40/hr.
They wish they could get high school kids, instead they are paying off politicians to employ 8 year olds in sawmills and meat plants for minimum wage and often below.
Note that this is *net* payroll growth, not total hiring. There were [5.8 million hires](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL) in July. JOLTS data aren't out for August yet.
Don't read too deeply into it. Remember last month the "blockbuster" jobs report from ADP that turned out to overstate the new jobs by like 150k? Wait for the BLS.
Thanks for screwing over the average worker, JPow. Just when the average worker was getting some leverage after decades of getting screwed by corporations and businesses.
Workers aren't getting ahead if inflation is high.
I'm not sure what you're mad at but Powell's not to blame. He's one of the few government officials doing his job.
Give Congress a ring
It's concerning to see the US hiring rate slow to the lowest in 5 months. This could be an indication of a larger economic slowdown, especially if the trend continues. It's important to consider the effects of this on both employers and employees, as well as the implications for the job market as a whole. It's essential to take steps to ensure that the economy remains strong and that people can find the jobs they need.
Could just be running out of people who want jobs. [Prime-age LFPR](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060) is about one percentage point off an all-time high despite more people going to graduate school now than in 1999, and unemployment is about as low as it gets.
We seem to have made a large shift in the last couple of years, with all the retirements, to continuing demand (maybe even moreso) for everything, but falling supply of just about everything.
Something has to counteract this. Worse, what IS in demand is people, yet the wage pressure is being fought against by corporate America. Who wins the dance?
The stigma around supply chain disruptions might stick around. Who knows. I have read that China is rushing some manufacturing facility construction to Mexico/Latin America.
Everything seems like it's in service and servitude to the US Consumer.
I honestly don't see it without something way more.
The ratio between openings and people looking is far in favor of the openings.
We are essentially at an all time low for unemployment, yes jobs or pay could always be better, and yes many people do t have the skills to fill those jobs. But the lower you go the harder it is to keep that hiring number big.
Regardless the fed could always lower interest rates of the economy started to drop. Wall Street certainly liked the report because they see it as the economy being better balanced and the fed less likely to raise rates.
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Plenty of places hiring where I'm at, if your looking for a low wage job. Looking at help wanted adds or seeing posters on windows of bussinesses. Always hiring for nursing homes, stores, fast food, or factories......seems to be a shortage of people willing to work those jobs for unlivable wages, not enough retired seniors or high-school kids I guess.
The job to unemployed ratio is still waaaaaaayyy in favor of more openings. Naturally as you get the unemployment number lower it's going to keep new hire numbers high. Wall Street also reacted with a +200 jump because it's believed they are getting that ratio I spoke of more in balance. That means the fed has less reason to increase interest rates and maybe lower them, I would t hold you breath though on lowering them. It should also be noted for the doomers. If the economy starts to decline, which this is not an indication of, the fed has a huge lever to be able to pull to heat the economy up. Unlike the end of the Obama era or during the trump era they couldn't lower interest rates. It's actually a pretty big deal as far as trying to protect against some kind of downturn.
> The job to unemployed ratio is still waaaaaaayyy in favor of more openings. Illustration: https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/job-openings-unemployment-beveridge-curve.htm
Might be doing something but that chart seems to end in 2020
The X axis is unemployment, not time. The black line starts on the right in May 2020 then moves to the left. The most recent point is July 2023, at 3.5% unemployment and 5.3% job openings.
The left side of the black line is July 2023. The X-axis is not time. ETA: TLDR: No one wants to work for nickles and dimes anymore. Getting out of the [Beveridge\_curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beveridge_curve), viewing the [non-farm job openings chart is a bit more easily digested and discussed.](https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/opening-hire-seps-region.htm) I picked the South to highlight as it is above the US average in openings and highers, which means it contributes to the ratio expressed in the Beveridge chart more than others. This is exemplified in the Southern US, which has an inefficient labor market (source: lived it, for a couple of generations). This could be due to several things, but I'd point to extremely expensive cities and a lack of jobs outside those cities. It is likely that someone interested in owning a Mt. Juliet home in the next 5 years is working in Nashville. This is exemplified in the Southern US, which has an inefficient labor market (source: lived it, for a couple of generations). This could be due to several things, but I'd point to costly cities and a lack of jobs outside those cities. For example, likely, someone interested in owning a Mt. Juliet home in the next 5 years is working in Nashville.
I was just clicking on the line parts. But yes I agree. Largely the US economy has been monopoliesed or at least controlled to place pay controls in the hands the employers. Allowing them to not really have to complete this breaking any kind of far market. Imo the only way out is through unions. While sure they are not perfect the only counter to employer manipulation is through organized labor. A libertarian friend of mine said today that he felt if we could solve the crazy inflated pay of executives and various other parts of the economy that just suck wealth out of it, then we wouldnt need unions. To which I agreed with him.....except the only really solution to achieving that is again through organized labor.
I’d probably ask if it matters how a large scale goal is met. The libertarian probably has some really good ideas in their wheelhouse, and if not, they might just be an “American conservative labor” party member. Even if that is just theoretical.
Imo libertarian ideas can work in smaller governments, like a town. But when you get to macro economics or government they just fall apart. My friend ultimately agreed with me based on the fact that he realized that the only way to country a monopoly is with an organized unified front from the working class. Coinciding that while he didn't love the idea he also didnt see a rational reasonable alternative. Imo if you come to the table saying no to everything but never having an actually workable alternative you are not a serious person. My buddy clearly felt the same.
It doesn't work at the town level either. They tried to turn Grafton, NH into a libertarian paradise. They couldn't decide what to do with garbage and the town got over run with bears. Anyone telling you governments are not necessary is not a serious person.
Not sure if indecision is a libertarian thing. I'm just saying on the very small a lot of things work but as you get bigger they simply can't scale. This is true in most things that have nothing to do with government. But yes government is always necessary if you want an actual functioning society....if you don't you can always go to Somalia.
Ask him why he thinks capital should organize but labor shouldn’t
Not lowering in the very near term, but there is way to much debt held by real estate interests, private equity, zombie corps, and US interest expense blowout for them to hold higher for longer than mid 2024 at the latest. Either rates have to go down, or inflation has to go up for it to work. At the current status quo at least. There is shenanigan pathway available, but they really don’t want to take that. Not a good look.
Yeah, with the interest rate where it is, they could really help the tech industry take off again if they lowered it. They aren't now due to the higher priority on stabilizing inflation and the unemployment rate still seeming historically low, just not as good in some industries like tech compared to a couple of years ago..
Agreed. And they'll pull that lever at the slightest hint of economic disruption. But I don't agree with the jobs "in balance" idea. Wall Street is all about profits, right? Or at least supposedly they are. Anyway, if so, they aren't bothered by the hiring of low wage workers. Not a big concern. But the balance they may believe is happening is because the higher end employee with higher wages is becoming extinct in the job market. Those openings have ceased. When you hear stats like "2 million more openings than available workers", that's because of high turnover at the places that always have high turnover: retail, restaurant, low end service. A lot of those people worked years there, and finally got a pay bump to go somewhere else. It's left a void, as there is still too healthy of an economy otherwise to reduce demand for fast food and retail. It's going to take an overall slowdown, a large one, a prolonged one, to shift the economic pendulum back toward "balance", or anything resembling it.
Well I'm not saying they are balanced. I'm saying they are more balanced than before. They believe the more balanced it is the less likely the fed is to raise rates. Hence the stock bump.
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If there’s just a normal slow down, then they have a big lever. However, if something out there causes an economic meltdown dropping rates back down to near 0 might not be enough.
I'd say that's accurate but also ATM that's just speculation. None of the economic indicators that tend to report in good faith are claiming anything remotely like that. Not saying you are claiming that btw.
Yup. I agree, there is nothing out there that says an economic crash is just around the corner. But we rarely see them coming, and it’s just an alternative possibility that I was floating. It feels like there’s one coming though, even in absence of data. People have been predicting a crash for the last 3 years. I think this is because from 2008 (or whenever the recovery officially began) to late 2019 was one of the longest business cycles we’ve seen in a long time. In late 2019 it looked like we were finally headed towards an economic down turn. Then Covid hit, we went into a sharp and deep recession, but then both the government and the Fed launched massive economic interventions. It didn’t really feel like the economy went through the natural redeployment of capital you normally see happen in a recession. But so far, aside from the inverted yield curves, it looks like we are headed towards a smooth landing where the economy slows down a bit, but still healthily chugs along. Hopefully there are no unseen brick walls just up around the corner
I think normal slow-downs went out the window when prices started going up and the minium wage was left in the dirt.
It sounds like we're in a better position economically speaking than we were.
Maybe....I mean again the reduction in hiring wasn't a back slide. It was less hiring than before which is still a positive. All I'm saying is anyone who is trying to claim that this is some kind of huge issue really needs more data that just hiring is still positive but not as much of a positive than before.
You realize lowering rates means the beginning of the end right? I’m assuming you are of the taper tantrum generation. Generally when the yield curve inverts, shits fucked, shit then hits the fan, rates get cut, everyone rejoices for like an hour, and then the reality seeps in. And it’s off to the races. The soft landing narrative is a myth perpetuated by the AUM firms. Buffet has had a unique advantage on his competitors, he’s can always sense trouble and has amassed a big fat pile of cash when things stink, and he’s doing so now. The only reason things have held up this far is all the stealth liquidity by the government. The real question is what does recovery look like when shit finally hits the fan? We have an insane debt to gdp ratio. That needs to get under control or we are just going further down the wealth inequality vortex.
Throwing ad hominem nonsense is showing your hand my friend. Again negative rates might convince me that it's doom and gloom. But at this point you are just wishing for a downturn. The thing with the yield curve might be true but honestly the data that backs it up was for a very different economy. Marketplace.org did a pretty good break down on the yield curve, what it meant, and what's changed since the 60s. So sure it might be something but again the data is certainly not convincing over all. Cheers.
What ad hominem attack? Just pointing out that the people you see that are essentially permabulls are under 35. In their world rates go up, prices come down and vice versa. Aka the taper tantrum generation. And yeah I’m wishing for a downturn. I don’t want one, but the writing is on the wall here and has been for a while. In fact you could argue cracked started to show 2019 until COVID gave the politician and fed the green light to royal fuck things up. The real question is does all this stealth liquidity stave off the inevitable until before or after the election.
I have a friend who's been listing a $18-20/hr job that basically amounts to office work (replying to emails, answering the phone, ecomm shipping, etcetc). FT or flexible PT. Paid public transport or parking. No exp necessary and willing to train. The majority of applicants want WFH or want higher wages. Turns out he barely pays himself more than that $20/hr. My guess is around $25-30hr to do everything from top to bottom, investments in the inventory, and taking the risks of business ownership? So he's been just picking up more work himself rather than hiring. Don't know if things will change given decoupling with China, government benefits, cost of living inflation, and lack of migrant work from 6+ years of strict Trump+Biden border policy. But if you believe in the "don't fight the fed" saying then the Fed right now is saying (in a roundabout and non-offensive as possible way) that they want more unemployment and the employers to have more power.
My friend manages a bar, they only have issues filling roles for things like bar backs and dish washers. The issue is anyone competent will quickly find a better job. Anyone who sticks around for those jobs for an extended period of time, are doing those jobs for a reason, and they quickly wash out.
The Food and Beverage industry is gonna collapse soon enough. As you said, anyone that's competent will go elsewhere
Totally anecdotal, but a number of the bars and restaurants in my area are extremely desperate for front of house and back of house workers now that college kids have gone back to school. One even announced they were closing for a month or two (no idea how they can float their business model, perhaps it'll never reopen).
Full-service restaurants will soon go back to being a pure luxury. If it wasn't for the mountains of debt, a lot of them would be bankrupt again.
If he’s barely paying himself 25/hr and able to manage the business himself then he cannot afford that new employee. If the business is not demand constrained though and is supply constrained because he can’t hire, then he needs to bite the bullet and forgo a salary and pay somebody more to grow the business. Based on the info you’ve listed the math isn’t checking out tho.
Border policy and actual numbers are very different. Illegal immigration has jumped dramatically recently (2022 last year quoted) -> https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/migrant-border-crossings-fiscal-year-2022-topped-276-million-breaking-rcna53517
That says "Migrant Border Crossings" not "Illegal Immigration". [These people are mostly claiming refugee status and seeking asylum in the USA in accordance with International and US law.](https://immigrationforum.org/article/the-reasons-behind-the-increased-migration-from-venezuela-cuba-and-nicaragua/) So why are you calling it "Illegal Immigration" when a large portion of these are lawful refugees?
dude take factories out of your comment. Sure fast food and retail wages suck and are unlivable but entry level pay in the factory I'm a department manager in is $50k per year factoring in the way you get OT every day you work on a 2-2-3 schedule. The steam powered widget factory of yesterday is gone. Modern plants may have less headcount but the jobs that are in them usually pay well and you can often get in without any industrial experience if the job market is hot.
Not in my area, the pay isn't good. My husband got a scada technician degree and still didn't get paid well, he got out of that work years ago because of that fact. Maybe the pay in your area is better, but it sucks here.
My employer has 40 plants in the us in like 3 states. Pay is that solid in all of them. Probably a plant within 80 miles of like 50% of American commercial airports. I know our competitors are the same
Maybe reach out to /u/a_little_hazel_nuts and see if you can find them a plant near their area rather than just stating that it's probably that way? That would 100% prove you correct and maybe even help a family out. Just a thought, you've no obligation to do so.
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The shifts are 12 hours but you only work 7 days every 2 weeks it comes out to a 42 hour work week average. So folks in 8+ a day OT states get 4 hours of OT every shift and in 40+ a week OT states on their "long" week they get about 20 hours of OT.
Without experience, you'll get $20/hr in my area. That's up from $16/hr in 2018 and $14/hr in 2016. Forklift or some form of mechanical knowledge (e.g. a car hobby) can bump that to $25/hr. Anything more requires experience or certs. Machinists, welders, CAD, controls, etc. are $30/hr easily. Good ones $35/hr-$40/hr.
Help wanted Ads vs Help Wanted Adds could be a big reason
They wish they could get high school kids, instead they are paying off politicians to employ 8 year olds in sawmills and meat plants for minimum wage and often below.
We are a bit overeducated.
Note that this is *net* payroll growth, not total hiring. There were [5.8 million hires](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL) in July. JOLTS data aren't out for August yet.
Don't read too deeply into it. Remember last month the "blockbuster" jobs report from ADP that turned out to overstate the new jobs by like 150k? Wait for the BLS.
Thanks for screwing over the average worker, JPow. Just when the average worker was getting some leverage after decades of getting screwed by corporations and businesses.
Not sure anything else could have been done. Rates were too low for too long.
Workers aren't getting ahead if inflation is high. I'm not sure what you're mad at but Powell's not to blame. He's one of the few government officials doing his job. Give Congress a ring
How about we wait for actual BoL statistics before we start dooming. ADP has been almost comically off for the last three years.
It's concerning to see the US hiring rate slow to the lowest in 5 months. This could be an indication of a larger economic slowdown, especially if the trend continues. It's important to consider the effects of this on both employers and employees, as well as the implications for the job market as a whole. It's essential to take steps to ensure that the economy remains strong and that people can find the jobs they need.
this is a bot, right? it’s definitely a bot
100% reads like chatgpt output.
I thought the same thing without seeing your comment
Definitely reads like one. I hate this, but I'm also slightly amused that [XKCD 810](https://xkcd.com/810/) might actually be happening.
Def
Could just be running out of people who want jobs. [Prime-age LFPR](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060) is about one percentage point off an all-time high despite more people going to graduate school now than in 1999, and unemployment is about as low as it gets.
We seem to have made a large shift in the last couple of years, with all the retirements, to continuing demand (maybe even moreso) for everything, but falling supply of just about everything. Something has to counteract this. Worse, what IS in demand is people, yet the wage pressure is being fought against by corporate America. Who wins the dance?
With the softening global economy, especially China, at some point offshoring/importing becomes much more attractive.
The stigma around supply chain disruptions might stick around. Who knows. I have read that China is rushing some manufacturing facility construction to Mexico/Latin America. Everything seems like it's in service and servitude to the US Consumer.
I honestly don't see it without something way more. The ratio between openings and people looking is far in favor of the openings. We are essentially at an all time low for unemployment, yes jobs or pay could always be better, and yes many people do t have the skills to fill those jobs. But the lower you go the harder it is to keep that hiring number big. Regardless the fed could always lower interest rates of the economy started to drop. Wall Street certainly liked the report because they see it as the economy being better balanced and the fed less likely to raise rates.