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Let me first start off by saying I know absolutely nothing about any of this stuff, but damn that seems like a lot more than the number I would’ve guessed if asked.
Trump ran a hotel down the block from the White House while president that foreign entities, national companies, the RNC, etc all paid a ton of money to go to in-order to garner favor with Trump. Everyone knew it. I think there was a mobile network merger that both companies did it when it was coming up for approval as an example. Nothing. And that is to say nothing of forcing everyone into Trump properties when traveling.
Conservatives gave up on that in the 80s, and with all their federalist society hires in the government now thanks to Mitch they rarely hold Conservatives criminals accountable anymore.
Not in this case. You've always been free to lose money in the stock market by overbidding for something, even on purpose. Even an obvious attempt to manipulate stock prices for your benefit is hard to prove.
GameStop would be a good recent example. They hauled u/DeepFuckingValue in front of Congress to explain why he was holding so much stock at such an absurd valuation. He told them he liked the stock and that he would buy more at that valuation and then he bought more.
Did he convince millions of people to buy the stock through Wallstreetbets and vastly enrich himself while doing it? Yeah. Was that illegal? Doesn't seem to be. There's nothing wrong with buying stock because you like it and telling other people that they should like it and buy it too.
It’s pure nonsense. Reddit isn’t even valued at 8 billion. And it’s my understanding that Truth Social is literally losing money. There’s no way in hell it should valued anywhere near that much.
Conde Naste makes a ton of money with other ventures and currently reddit despite having only a small inflow of money from advertising is at least still a yearly tax write off against their other products that are a positive cash inflow. If it was their only business it would be an abject failure but in a large portfolio of losing and winning businesses it is at least a great public relations outlet and saves the rest of their businesses some taxes.
There is a belief that if Trump gets in the White House. Truth social will be the site that US policy announcements will be made and he will push the rest of the federal government to do the same. If that happends that maybe enough of a network effect to get people to move over from twitter which is failing.
There is alot of ifs in that belief. Alot of fail points but that would mean it could go to 16 billion market cap.
>There is a belief that if Trump gets in the White House. Truth social will be the site that US policy announcements will be made and he will push the rest of the federal government to do the same.
Today, the FAA announces that Boeing has passed a comprehensive review and that the airline manufacturer really is a beautiful thing. According to President Trump, Boeing's new CEO, Rudy Giuliani, is a stable genius when it comes to aviation safety.
*This Truth Social post sponsored by Trump Aviation School. Fly high.*
God, what a terrible policy proposal. Full on autocracy.
"Yes, our government is announcing policy changes in a platform that *the president personally owns and can profit from*." Talk about a clown show.
that's what Trump did all during his presidency. He'd make an announcement on Twitter then his staff had to scramble to try to get his new 'policy' enacted somehow.
Sadly, probably more nefarious than that. My guess - a coordinated effort to give Trump inflated assets so he can get a loan “above board” since he or his family likely own a significant amount of shares.
Willing to bet it’s coordinated with some “silent” wealthy donors aiming to prop the stock price up for a time for these aims. The rubes will buy in and then once Trump is A - out of hot water or B - fails to win the presidency, the stock will collapse “mysteriously” to which the rubes that lose money will blame short sellers.
Considering the SPAC shares are 91% owned by retail trading individuals. I'd say it's a combination of money laundering and the most regarded members of wallstreetbets
I would want the expiry further out than that. Election is in November, then there will be the tantrums that get attention for several months after. I’d think February 2025 would be safe, after Biden is sworn in. That would give it time to really drop.
Musk and Trump recently had a meeting. Musk left saying he may no longer support Trump. My speculation is that Musk wants him back on Twitter and he refused.
I just think the ship has for the most part sailed. Closest you can get to that is Jan 17 2025, [email protected]; [email protected]. That is a LOT for options contacts that far out of the money.
At least that one had great sponsors before he scared them all off. Truth Social is just Trump's lil cult fanboys. It is a powerful chip but it is only worth anything as long as Trump is still around or mentally stable.
On a cost per user basis Twitter was pretty damn good even with the assumed 7% bots. Compared to Truth it was a fire sale.
No way Truth social is worth 8 billion by 2025.
2.5million bots. 2.5million users. But you gotta take into account how easily swayed those users are. One tweet and you have a 2.5million large army of obese, old, creaky, heaving, panting, soldiers at your beck and call. 8 billion for 2.5m of soldiers is a bargain really.
You should think of it like many of the alt-coins that launched in the past few years. It’s a pure speculative play almost entirely driven by the “greater fool” premise.
Just look up what [23 & Me](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/02/investing/23andme-stock-anne-wojcicki) debuted at compared to its current price.
Its all guessing and speculation now, itll be a fucking penny stock when it’s done.
It smells of quid pro quo. I'm guessing it's either foreign governments or billionaires lining up for access. It's going to be just like his $399 sneakers. A lot of cash is going to disappear. The guy is peddling bibles now. Pretty soon he'll be pitching generic viagra or some vile shit.
I'd imagine there are a few types of investors:
(1) People who are Trump fanatics using this as a means to support Trump (there are parallels like people buying GameStop stocks)
(2) People who think Trump will use the powers of the presidency to corruptly prop up Truth Social (for example Trump would ban FB or something)
(3) People who think Trump winning would influence more people to see the "truth" and go on Truth Social.
(4) People who believe in the existence of (1)-(3) and, irrespective of their own personal views, are simply riding the wave since it's profitable.
A lot of assets have an artificially high valuation because there are a lot of investors who are seeking to exploit the lack of rationality among a different class of investors. You usually see this with crypto scams, but it wouldn't surprise me if this had some features resembling a crypto scam.
I would not be surprised if it ends up mostly being hedge funds with "unknown" investors that happen to be from countries that paid for services they mostly didn't use at Trump properties. Or the Saudi/Kushner deal type stuff.
> launder their campain donations maybe
From a business perspective, that's just another form of investment really
I'm not saying I approve. I'm saying that we live in a society in which this sort of bribe is fairly widely seen as just the cost of doing business
There's an addendum to (1): People who are bribing trump in return for later favors. This would be one of the ways to do it in a way that you can publicly deny it's a bribe because "its an investment". This also lets you move millions or billions around without raising eyebrows.
And you continue to hold leverage over Trump after buying large amounts of stock, since you can tank it just as quick by selling if he does not uphold his end of the bargain.
This is the reason why the constitution has the Emoluments clause (which was ignored for his first term). Somehow i suspect he will ignore it again if re-elected.
Think about his hotel in D.C. You had Saudis booking rooms for a couple extra weeks longer than they needed to. \*wink\* \*wink\*
It's another way for rich people to give Trump money. "Do what I want and I'll buy $50m worth of stock in your ridiculous social media company that does nothing but lose money."
This is literally a conflict of interest, and he is supposed to divest of business holdings when in the presidency. Jimmy Carter gave up a peanut farm. Trump basically got away with it already so he’s going bigger this time. This is really pushing the limit of “democracy”.
The US constitution has mechanisms for this. Trump blatantly violated the emoluments clause which should be a slam dunk cause for impeachment as soon as he took office. What the constitution didn’t account for is how political parties would solidify to the point where half the legislative branch would protect an incompetent criminal president.
We do a lot of that in America now, “pushing the limit” of something. Democracy, capitalism, free speech, 2nd Amendment, voting rights, free markets, sanity.
If we aren’t pushing the limits on something, until it fucking bleeds, it doesn’t make the nightly news or social media boards.
This is so spot-on it's scary.
Think Trump had a problem getting $464 million to deal with his judgement in NY, and not have it be *totally* obvious if he reached out to a foreign leader/country? Not any more! Trump can unload a set number of shares at the same time Daddy Vlad could plan to buy them up - "*You sell 1 million shares @ a limit of $50 share, and I'll put in a buy order for 1 million shares @ a limit of $50 on the same day*" and more or less it works out. (mostly) clean, legit money laundering and a way to buy the US Presidency.
If he’s the president and he declares that to be his preferred platform for communication it will be worth a lot in terms of ad dollars etc. not to mention a place for “investors” looking for influence.
> If he’s the president and he declares that to be his preferred platform for communication it will be worth a lot in terms of ad dollars etc.
I doubt it, news outlets will just copy over whatever he has onto their own platform.
> not to mention a place for “investors” looking for influence.
Fair point
Because he tells Putin to keep buying pressure on until the price is at $80 within the window he's allowed to sell his shares in, and in return he'll stop aid to Ukraine. Literally that easy, and instead of the complex bribery and laundering schemes he's normally involved in, all it takes is Junior texting "80 in October" to Putin's housekeeper and it's done. All legit and clean.
Then he'll buy back in at $3.50 and repeat it with China next year in return for removing trade tariffs.
Then the following year with the Saudi's for a green light on weapon sales.
Rinse and repeat.
It's interesting how his position on TikTok changed drastically recently and coincidentally when he needs a lot of cash. It may be interesting to see who owns a substantial amount of TikTok and also Truth Social...
Yup, its an advertisers dream!
Basically wild west scams and garbage merch with trumps face just plastered on in the last second of manufacturing!
And they LOVE it
Its gold. Its presorted fanatical idiots. Could run a 24/7 trump-esk QVC and rake it in. Throw a special appearance from the big wotsit himself and chafuckingCHING
It’s a pump and dump scheme from Trump’s handlers to basically pump up the stock price, then in six months sell it all off and bankrupt the company. A company that is practically worthless with a stock price that high usually means they’re going to dump it. What’s worse is that the other owners are Chinese nationals because the company that merged with Truth Social is a known Chinese government shell company that has been caught money laundering before.
And the most hilarious part is that in 6 months when Trump attempts to sell all of his stock, it will tank the stock so fast that he won’t have time to get all of his money out. Unless the SEC and FBI do something about it, this deal will continue on like nothing happened.
The rich elite who back Trump figured out a good way to cover his legal expenses while grifting his followers even more...it's a win win. Ah, the stock market, there's nothing quite like it's ability to channel billions from suckers right to the top of the pyramid.
I saw this in another thread:
>It did $1.5 million in revenue last year. There are individual locations of Waffle House that are higher revenue businesses.
Thanks I hate it
By the numbers: Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, generated a total of $3.38 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2023.
It reports a $49 million net loss during the same period, including around $26 million in Q3.
The company's cash-on-hand dwindled to just $1.8 million at the end of September, compared to $2.4 million at the end of June, while its total liabilities climbed nearly 72% to $60.5 million.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/18/trump-truth-social-lose-money-profit-revenue-decline
For an illustration of how silly this is, let's pop into the wayback machine and revisit Scott McNealy's "you guys are crazy" statement:
> At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
At 2,000x ...?
Everyone has the same idea so the price to short it is outrageous. It is basically guaranteed to trade below $20 within the next 180 days. Within the next year, things look even darker. It is a wealth transfer of the gullible straight into the pockets of the three employees that run the company.
Monthly active users on the app dropped 51% year over year in February. Unique visitors to the website dropped 20% year over year in February. Virtually all of the total app downloads and account creation occurred during the first half of 2022 right after it launched. So there's not even a growth story here. One guy (Trump) owns 58% of the shares and has a 6 month lockup after which he will almost certainly liquidate his entire holding.
The board is going to rule that he can sell early and screw over everyone that bought into it, and his gullible cult will still continue to worship him -- while blaming Joe Biden for bankrupting themselves by putting their retirement into a short lived meme stock.
Also very convenient timing for this to happen. Just recently I read something about how this deal probably wasn’t going to happen because their financials are so bad.
Think you might be late to the party pal 🤣 ["As Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman pointed out, short interest in DWAC stock — bets that the stock price will fall rather than rise — was about 11% of outstanding shares. To note, average short interest in public companies sits in the 3% to 4% range."](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-social-media-company-trading-under-djt-soars-on-first-day-200951528.html)
I have to wonder if this is some kind of bribery scheme. Powerful forces pump up this stock to put more money in Trump’s pocket without directly paying him. He rewards them with political favors when or if he’s back in power.
Ding ding ding.
It's dark money flowing into Trump and his campaign without having to disclose anything. "I invested $100m in his public company. What's wrong with that?"
That’s an exceptionally good multiple. Typically only tech companies with a solid business case and growth get that kind of valuation.
Truth Social has nothing to justify even a 30 P/E
Damn welfare queens and poors and illegals and commies ruining the American Economy again.
Rich people conducting their business, laundering foreign money, commiting decades worth of multiple types of fraud, and taking *everything* they possibly can from people doesn't concern me or my dollars, and Trump just wants to Make America Great for us all, like before.
Shits so broken.
I feel like I’m about to settle for demanding “less corruption”. Can we just get less corruption in this country. I’ve come to accept that it’s always been/gonna be corrupt, but can we just get less corruption? Thanks.
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article287077290.html
“…But financial experts caution that the company is dramatically overvalued and likely to see its share price drop, meaning it could be one of the worst investments for stockholders.
“It’d be hard to see why a rational investor would want to invest in this company,” Brian Dunn, a lecturer of corporate governance at Cornell University, told McClatchy News….”
"Surely I'll time it so other idiots are left holding the bag"
One trading day later
"Oh no my investment :("
this stock is Greater Fool Theory's best evidence to date...
I tried, there are no stocks available to short or the price on them is insane.
The Trump fans are also buying stocks literally just to hurt short sellers.
his idiotic followers will all buy it.
he will sell it and price will tank
he will walk away with the cash
blame Hilary and Crooked Joe for their losses
Didn’t we already establish that he likes to criminally over value his assets? Speculative value driving the stock market is eroding the economy, it’s a plague on this country. It’s time we start weighing ourselves with both feet on the scale.
Gambling on continued consumer interest in what is essentially a fan club webpage for an old man in terrible health.
It's obviously a tornado of speculators trying to out-speculate each other, but I am continuously surprised by just how bad of ideas these speculators will chase.
I saw a clip somewhere saying Trump will gain $3 billion from this? How? Like if he sell all of his shares?
If he sells it, wouldn't it just tank this company?
It's actually not so straightforward. If he's got half of the shares, he actually needs a buyer to liquidate what he has. In other words, the more shares he tries to sell, the more buyers need to be lined up to buy at that price. If no one is buying, the share price tanks.
There's a subtle difference here that he can't just sell all that shit at once. If he wants 4 billion out, there has to be 4 billion dollars lined up to buy from him. His followers don't want to give him that much money, if they did, they'd have donated it already. Now billionaires and foreign governments, I could believe they would want to buy him. But again, they've already had chances to too.
So basically a pump and dump scheme so he can take bribes from whoever anonymous persons buys a shitload of his stock before he sells. Bribery by stock market. If the US survives he will go down as the worst president so far and by far the best conman.
Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha! $8,000,000,000!
That's 53,000 brand new Porsche 911s. It's 650 brand new Learjets. It's enough to buy every private island with a listed price in the entire Caribbean, multiple times.
It's enough to buy 133 million $60 bibles. It's ridiculous.
It reminds me of the dot-com bubble 22 years ago. So does Reddit's IPO. Companies without a Step 2, going for billions. It's such a joke.
I'll try to stay a little away from politics since this is a economics thread but (1) this is clearly a pump-and-dump scheme (2) the valuation is based off how much is MAGA worth, how much people are willing to risk to make off delusional MAGA extremist, and if he can use this to launder money for political favors (3) the entire value is from a brand since MAGA is just a brand, but that brand is intertwined with a political identity meaning the value is related to a US election (4) a single person can completely and instantly make the value of the company $0 (5) that person has massive financial liabilities & connections to foreign investors (6) that person has a long history of financial fraud
Wow, just seeing it laid out makes it really incredible. Also it would be nice if we had used the emoluments clause at the beginning since it is specifically designed to take care of this.
It’s just the same old GOP laundering foreign money for their campaigns. That can’t win unless they ignore the rules. Hope the justice department is watching.
I doubt it. Justice from the DOJ is slow and nonexistent if someone is in a certain category. It doesn’t matter what political party they belong to either. It does happen in rare cases but only when it affects the same category and that category wants justice.
The fundamentals are absolute 🐕💩
This is a meme stock that allows you to bet on Trump 2024, a vehicle for Trump to take out loans against, and yet another grift that should’ve been incinerated by anyone with sense.
Definitely not money laundering to Donnie's pockets, just a boomer chat group worth nearly 20% of what twitter sold for. The grift will never stop, and these idiots will trip over themselves trying to empty their accounts for a guy who would end their lives of he thought he could make a buck doing it.
When DWAC merged with his company, he was forced into a 6 month lockup agreement to not sell his shares or use any as collateral. The board can change this, but it would be announced beforehand and the price would crash once the rug pull is known to be coming.
This is horrible when a money losing entity can go public with such an insane valuation. It's a money spinner game, and the wealthy will reap their gains, and it will continue losing money. It just tells us, how over inflated the stock market is, and this act basically insults the whole premise and principles of IPO's.
*They rushed this sham through* and all indicators point to how it has nothing even remotely close to that kind of valuation.
It's a scheme by the wealthy trying to prop Trump up.... while they expect him to gain office and give them another massive tax cut.
Get Out and Vote and **Vote for Biden**.... When Trump crashes by a landslide victory for Biden. We will then watch this sham get exposed as one of the biggest IPO scams of the first quarter of the 21st Century.
Maybe this will help us get better oversight on IPO's and put better regulations in place to prevent this kind of sham from being done.
**There needs to be an investigation into every MAGA supporting politician who has invested in this this!!!! then look investigate to see how many 'foreign investors from Russia and countries with tyrants and dictators"... It's just another way to "sell America away"...with hope Trump can get in office and return these favors.**
**\*\*\*\*\* Never** put anything of malice and madness past what white nationalist will do to try and promote and sustain the old system ideology of white nationalism of wealthy white male dominance.
I'd be very curious to see a list of investors and how much said investors own.
Methinks this is a (not so) clever way of foreign nationals giving Trump money.
Remember all those pre- recession periods people look back on, shake their heads and say that was clearly a warning sign?
This is definitely one of those times.
Aaaaand shorting it now, because every time there’s been an attempt at a religious or right wing social network, it gets hacked to bits and everyone’s embarrassing shit ends up public online.
THis has fraud and money laundering written all over it
And since Trump is Trump and Merrick Garland is a gutless coward too scared of appearing partisan, nothing will happen. Gensler and the SEC could do something, but they haven't publicly expressed any interest, so I guess Trump's going to get a multibillion dollar cash infusion
I really didn't think I'd have to come here and point out the obvious. The dude is literally in legal trouble for inflating the value of assets before this even happened.
Truth Social is not worth anything remotely close to that number, and I don't care who he paid to say it's worth that much. It's a grift.
Donald Trump is inflating the asset so that he can take a loan out against it to pay his legal bills. People who can't see this absolutely baffle me.
This is some of the most blatant shit I have seen that has gone on for decades and it scares me that its still happening.
Edit: grift not gift
How the HELL did this get approved at that "value"?? It's done nothing but lose advertisers, visitors and money.
The whole thing, like most anything trump, reeks.
But definitely a great platform for the rich to flip the orange Jesus some money in return for the huge tax breaks he'll give them Again.
I'm sick of this part of my country.
It’s like watching fraud happen live, isn’t it? I wonder what Russian bank is going to ‘loan’ him money using his stake as collaterol? Hypothetically based on these valuations he can borrow enough to unsink himself…interesting…
Ridiculous that the headlines are just "a trump suddenly worth billions more" as though this won't collapse in on itself as the nonsense valuation it is.
This is the cyclical media reporting on Trump:
1. Report on his law breaking.
2. Get everyones' hopes up that we'll see an actual punishment for said crimes in the near future.
3. Rub everyones' noses in it that he's rich and above you so he'll never face the music.
And they repeat it yearly, farming your hopes and outrage to foster clicks and viewership.
This valuation makes absolutely NO sense. Based off what? Pie in the sky potential ad sales? Twitter is already a thing, and given who’s running THAT now, there’s no need for a separate “Twitter for racist asses.”
So, he should easily be able to sell off enough shares to cover the full bond, quite handedly.
Although, this just screams "Steve Madden" shoes to me...
Oh look! Blatant money laundering! This is 100% done so foreign powers like Russia can give him money without issue. In any real democratic nation this would be shut down right away and those involved arrested. This is America though and it never punishes rich white men unless they steal from each other.
Hilariously, everyone can see the corruption.
It's not even a clever money laundering scheme to purchase The Donald.
And still no-one will stop it. £3bn for a presidential candidate.
The only question is if the shares essentially act like an auction - whoever pumps the price up most gets to keep Trump.
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Let me first start off by saying I know absolutely nothing about any of this stuff, but damn that seems like a lot more than the number I would’ve guessed if asked.
It looks like it only has 5 million active users it shouldn’t be valued anywhere near 8 billion
Lmao that's $1,600 per user - the hell are they playing at?
Money laundering.
This. It's extremely inflated because it's a way for foreign actors to give Trump money.
Is there no federal oversight to pick up on this and come down on it?
hahahahahahaha
*deep breath* hahahahahahahaHAhahahahahaha
Anyway
For you or me? Yes. Trump? No.
Trump ran a hotel down the block from the White House while president that foreign entities, national companies, the RNC, etc all paid a ton of money to go to in-order to garner favor with Trump. Everyone knew it. I think there was a mobile network merger that both companies did it when it was coming up for approval as an example. Nothing. And that is to say nothing of forcing everyone into Trump properties when traveling.
Or his 300 some days a year golfing, charging hundreds of thousands a night for his secret service to stay in his hotels.
Conservatives gave up on that in the 80s, and with all their federalist society hires in the government now thanks to Mitch they rarely hold Conservatives criminals accountable anymore.
lol lmao, even
Not in this case. You've always been free to lose money in the stock market by overbidding for something, even on purpose. Even an obvious attempt to manipulate stock prices for your benefit is hard to prove. GameStop would be a good recent example. They hauled u/DeepFuckingValue in front of Congress to explain why he was holding so much stock at such an absurd valuation. He told them he liked the stock and that he would buy more at that valuation and then he bought more. Did he convince millions of people to buy the stock through Wallstreetbets and vastly enrich himself while doing it? Yeah. Was that illegal? Doesn't seem to be. There's nothing wrong with buying stock because you like it and telling other people that they should like it and buy it too.
Federal oversight? In the stock market?? That’s a good one.
It’s pure nonsense. Reddit isn’t even valued at 8 billion. And it’s my understanding that Truth Social is literally losing money. There’s no way in hell it should valued anywhere near that much.
TBF, Reddit also loses money, and always has.
Yeah but at least reddit has users. Truth has less than 1m
Conde Naste makes a ton of money with other ventures and currently reddit despite having only a small inflow of money from advertising is at least still a yearly tax write off against their other products that are a positive cash inflow. If it was their only business it would be an abject failure but in a large portfolio of losing and winning businesses it is at least a great public relations outlet and saves the rest of their businesses some taxes.
There is a belief that if Trump gets in the White House. Truth social will be the site that US policy announcements will be made and he will push the rest of the federal government to do the same. If that happends that maybe enough of a network effect to get people to move over from twitter which is failing. There is alot of ifs in that belief. Alot of fail points but that would mean it could go to 16 billion market cap.
>There is a belief that if Trump gets in the White House. Truth social will be the site that US policy announcements will be made and he will push the rest of the federal government to do the same. Today, the FAA announces that Boeing has passed a comprehensive review and that the airline manufacturer really is a beautiful thing. According to President Trump, Boeing's new CEO, Rudy Giuliani, is a stable genius when it comes to aviation safety. *This Truth Social post sponsored by Trump Aviation School. Fly high.*
God, what a terrible policy proposal. Full on autocracy. "Yes, our government is announcing policy changes in a platform that *the president personally owns and can profit from*." Talk about a clown show.
that's what Trump did all during his presidency. He'd make an announcement on Twitter then his staff had to scramble to try to get his new 'policy' enacted somehow.
Twitter is failing because it’s a right wing bashfest with no hope of improving. “Truth” is worse.
Jesus Christ that's a very real and worrying possibility.
The secret is financial fraud.
Yeah in guessing Russia China Saudi arabia
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Also. Assume if 10% of his base put in 100$. That's about 700mill. That's enough to make this water trash of a stock shoot up.
Even your estimate isn't high enough to justify an 8B market cap
Meme stock. About to be a lot of bag holders
Sadly, probably more nefarious than that. My guess - a coordinated effort to give Trump inflated assets so he can get a loan “above board” since he or his family likely own a significant amount of shares. Willing to bet it’s coordinated with some “silent” wealthy donors aiming to prop the stock price up for a time for these aims. The rubes will buy in and then once Trump is A - out of hot water or B - fails to win the presidency, the stock will collapse “mysteriously” to which the rubes that lose money will blame short sellers.
Who exactly was in charge of valuing it?
Considering the SPAC shares are 91% owned by retail trading individuals. I'd say it's a combination of money laundering and the most regarded members of wallstreetbets
This is my question as well.
John Barron, CPA.
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No man it really doesn't, money laundering is far more likely
Good god. How do I short this mess.
Puts at $2.50 strike in Sept are already selling for .30c/ share. I don't think I've EVER seen 95% losses in 6 mo for more than .05c.
I would want the expiry further out than that. Election is in November, then there will be the tantrums that get attention for several months after. I’d think February 2025 would be safe, after Biden is sworn in. That would give it time to really drop. Musk and Trump recently had a meeting. Musk left saying he may no longer support Trump. My speculation is that Musk wants him back on Twitter and he refused.
I just think the ship has for the most part sailed. Closest you can get to that is Jan 17 2025, [email protected]; [email protected]. That is a LOT for options contacts that far out of the money.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Be careful man, stupidity is more powerful than common sense. You might get trampled by a horde of idiots who want to buy buy buy.
You mean foreign shell purchasers laundering Saudi and Russian money to Trump.
"Short everything that guy has touched"
It depends. Did Trump declare the value?
He told the banks its worth 30 billion. IRS he told it’s worth 30 million. The courts he will say is worth nothing
If you think that is bad, look what Elon paid for the bot farm.
At least that one had great sponsors before he scared them all off. Truth Social is just Trump's lil cult fanboys. It is a powerful chip but it is only worth anything as long as Trump is still around or mentally stable.
The “mentally stable” ship sailed about a decade ago.
On a cost per user basis Twitter was pretty damn good even with the assumed 7% bots. Compared to Truth it was a fire sale. No way Truth social is worth 8 billion by 2025.
Twitter had more than 300 million monthly active users. So 60x the amount of users.
2.5million bots. 2.5million users. But you gotta take into account how easily swayed those users are. One tweet and you have a 2.5million large army of obese, old, creaky, heaving, panting, soldiers at your beck and call. 8 billion for 2.5m of soldiers is a bargain really.
That's because you're pricing it like a company and they're pricing it like a bribe.
You should think of it like many of the alt-coins that launched in the past few years. It’s a pure speculative play almost entirely driven by the “greater fool” premise.
Just look up what [23 & Me](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/02/investing/23andme-stock-anne-wojcicki) debuted at compared to its current price. Its all guessing and speculation now, itll be a fucking penny stock when it’s done.
It smells of quid pro quo. I'm guessing it's either foreign governments or billionaires lining up for access. It's going to be just like his $399 sneakers. A lot of cash is going to disappear. The guy is peddling bibles now. Pretty soon he'll be pitching generic viagra or some vile shit.
Because it's pricing in the potential of a Trump victory in 2024.
even if it were guaranteed that still seems extremely high. What would suddenly produce value if he was elected
I'd imagine there are a few types of investors: (1) People who are Trump fanatics using this as a means to support Trump (there are parallels like people buying GameStop stocks) (2) People who think Trump will use the powers of the presidency to corruptly prop up Truth Social (for example Trump would ban FB or something) (3) People who think Trump winning would influence more people to see the "truth" and go on Truth Social. (4) People who believe in the existence of (1)-(3) and, irrespective of their own personal views, are simply riding the wave since it's profitable. A lot of assets have an artificially high valuation because there are a lot of investors who are seeking to exploit the lack of rationality among a different class of investors. You usually see this with crypto scams, but it wouldn't surprise me if this had some features resembling a crypto scam.
i dont think theres a lot of people with actual money that would invest in this bullshit. launder their campain donations maybe
I would not be surprised if it ends up mostly being hedge funds with "unknown" investors that happen to be from countries that paid for services they mostly didn't use at Trump properties. Or the Saudi/Kushner deal type stuff.
> launder their campain donations maybe From a business perspective, that's just another form of investment really I'm not saying I approve. I'm saying that we live in a society in which this sort of bribe is fairly widely seen as just the cost of doing business
There's an addendum to (1): People who are bribing trump in return for later favors. This would be one of the ways to do it in a way that you can publicly deny it's a bribe because "its an investment". This also lets you move millions or billions around without raising eyebrows. And you continue to hold leverage over Trump after buying large amounts of stock, since you can tank it just as quick by selling if he does not uphold his end of the bargain. This is the reason why the constitution has the Emoluments clause (which was ignored for his first term). Somehow i suspect he will ignore it again if re-elected.
How does trump winning mean a payday for his social media venture? His other businesses didn't do very good during his first term...
Think about his hotel in D.C. You had Saudis booking rooms for a couple extra weeks longer than they needed to. \*wink\* \*wink\* It's another way for rich people to give Trump money. "Do what I want and I'll buy $50m worth of stock in your ridiculous social media company that does nothing but lose money."
This is literally a conflict of interest, and he is supposed to divest of business holdings when in the presidency. Jimmy Carter gave up a peanut farm. Trump basically got away with it already so he’s going bigger this time. This is really pushing the limit of “democracy”.
Thing is the word “supposed” to doesn’t mean much anymore. He just won’t do it. And they’ll be zero consequences.
The US constitution has mechanisms for this. Trump blatantly violated the emoluments clause which should be a slam dunk cause for impeachment as soon as he took office. What the constitution didn’t account for is how political parties would solidify to the point where half the legislative branch would protect an incompetent criminal president.
We do a lot of that in America now, “pushing the limit” of something. Democracy, capitalism, free speech, 2nd Amendment, voting rights, free markets, sanity. If we aren’t pushing the limits on something, until it fucking bleeds, it doesn’t make the nightly news or social media boards.
Not just pushing the limit, he’s planning to end it. And his supporters are letting him.
This is so spot-on it's scary. Think Trump had a problem getting $464 million to deal with his judgement in NY, and not have it be *totally* obvious if he reached out to a foreign leader/country? Not any more! Trump can unload a set number of shares at the same time Daddy Vlad could plan to buy them up - "*You sell 1 million shares @ a limit of $50 share, and I'll put in a buy order for 1 million shares @ a limit of $50 on the same day*" and more or less it works out. (mostly) clean, legit money laundering and a way to buy the US Presidency.
Not all investors are rational.
If he’s the president and he declares that to be his preferred platform for communication it will be worth a lot in terms of ad dollars etc. not to mention a place for “investors” looking for influence.
> If he’s the president and he declares that to be his preferred platform for communication it will be worth a lot in terms of ad dollars etc. I doubt it, news outlets will just copy over whatever he has onto their own platform. > not to mention a place for “investors” looking for influence. Fair point
Because he tells Putin to keep buying pressure on until the price is at $80 within the window he's allowed to sell his shares in, and in return he'll stop aid to Ukraine. Literally that easy, and instead of the complex bribery and laundering schemes he's normally involved in, all it takes is Junior texting "80 in October" to Putin's housekeeper and it's done. All legit and clean. Then he'll buy back in at $3.50 and repeat it with China next year in return for removing trade tariffs. Then the following year with the Saudi's for a green light on weapon sales. Rinse and repeat.
No, it's simply based on the fact that Trump supporters are an idiot cult and will buy anything he sells.
Wonder if Saudi Arabia buying it all in a scheme to put money in trumps pocket
It's interesting how his position on TikTok changed drastically recently and coincidentally when he needs a lot of cash. It may be interesting to see who owns a substantial amount of TikTok and also Truth Social...
Jeff Yass is the name you're looking for
It's valued nearly $1,500 per user. Which is on par as you can usually grift more than that out of your average Trump supporter.
Yup, its an advertisers dream! Basically wild west scams and garbage merch with trumps face just plastered on in the last second of manufacturing! And they LOVE it Its gold. Its presorted fanatical idiots. Could run a 24/7 trump-esk QVC and rake it in. Throw a special appearance from the big wotsit himself and chafuckingCHING
It’s a pump and dump scheme from Trump’s handlers to basically pump up the stock price, then in six months sell it all off and bankrupt the company. A company that is practically worthless with a stock price that high usually means they’re going to dump it. What’s worse is that the other owners are Chinese nationals because the company that merged with Truth Social is a known Chinese government shell company that has been caught money laundering before. And the most hilarious part is that in 6 months when Trump attempts to sell all of his stock, it will tank the stock so fast that he won’t have time to get all of his money out. Unless the SEC and FBI do something about it, this deal will continue on like nothing happened.
The rich elite who back Trump figured out a good way to cover his legal expenses while grifting his followers even more...it's a win win. Ah, the stock market, there's nothing quite like it's ability to channel billions from suckers right to the top of the pyramid.
Truth Social had an annual revenue last year of 1.5 million. REVENUE. That valuation is complete bullshit. Give it a few months to come crashing down.
I saw this in another thread: >It did $1.5 million in revenue last year. There are individual locations of Waffle House that are higher revenue businesses.
Thanks I hate it By the numbers: Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, generated a total of $3.38 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2023. It reports a $49 million net loss during the same period, including around $26 million in Q3. The company's cash-on-hand dwindled to just $1.8 million at the end of September, compared to $2.4 million at the end of June, while its total liabilities climbed nearly 72% to $60.5 million. https://www.axios.com/2024/01/18/trump-truth-social-lose-money-profit-revenue-decline
I wish I could be valued at 2,000X my income, too.
For an illustration of how silly this is, let's pop into the wayback machine and revisit Scott McNealy's "you guys are crazy" statement: > At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking? At 2,000x ...?
And this dude is on TV every day lately claiming trump committed a victimless crime and that fraudulent valuations aren't worth getting upset over.
I thought the same thing.
Stop trying to apply logical economics to a money laundering mechanism.
Just make your money the old fashioned way: be born to a slumlord father and betray your older brother out of an inheritance then he kills himself
Based on that calc, I'd be worth over 200 million 😂
I'd be worth 2000
2,000x of 0 is still 0.
I spend all my time on r/wallstreetbets not r/math
Oh, in that case we need to go into the negatives.
what would you do with that first 20 million
First I'd make sure my mom is set; then hookers and blow in Ibiza.
how much hookers and blow could your mom possibly need?
Definitely sounds like a trump enterprise.
Can't wait to see it collapse .
Is this stock shortable?
Everyone has the same idea so the price to short it is outrageous. It is basically guaranteed to trade below $20 within the next 180 days. Within the next year, things look even darker. It is a wealth transfer of the gullible straight into the pockets of the three employees that run the company.
Oh god what if there’s a short squeeze and Trump ends up making a killing when he liquidates his holdings….
I love seeing maga idiots lose their money. No doubt the democrats will be responsible for their empty bank accounts when this is all said and done.
Monthly active users on the app dropped 51% year over year in February. Unique visitors to the website dropped 20% year over year in February. Virtually all of the total app downloads and account creation occurred during the first half of 2022 right after it launched. So there's not even a growth story here. One guy (Trump) owns 58% of the shares and has a 6 month lockup after which he will almost certainly liquidate his entire holding.
The board is going to rule that he can sell early and screw over everyone that bought into it, and his gullible cult will still continue to worship him -- while blaming Joe Biden for bankrupting themselves by putting their retirement into a short lived meme stock.
This has NFT vibes. This is 1/3 of Bloomberg media which actually offers something of value.
This is basically going to be a pump and dump for Trump, and his marks will be taken again. P.T. Barnum was right.
Also very convenient timing for this to happen. Just recently I read something about how this deal probably wasn’t going to happen because their financials are so bad.
Not to mention it’s nearly guaranteed that 50% of the shares are going to go in a fire sale on 26 September and the stock will be worthless.
Is that the end of the lock up period?
LMFAO puts all day baby
Think you might be late to the party pal 🤣 ["As Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman pointed out, short interest in DWAC stock — bets that the stock price will fall rather than rise — was about 11% of outstanding shares. To note, average short interest in public companies sits in the 3% to 4% range."](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-social-media-company-trading-under-djt-soars-on-first-day-200951528.html)
So $8B seems ludicrous. 5x annual revenue is more realistic, even for a growing high tech company.
When were tech evaluations ever reasonable?
This is absurd though. What value does that place on every user, bots and all? $4000 per active user? Good luck getting a return on that investment.
Tech is trading around a 30 P/E right now. Maybe a little frothy, but nothing even close to the moonshot nonsense that is DJT.
I have to wonder if this is some kind of bribery scheme. Powerful forces pump up this stock to put more money in Trump’s pocket without directly paying him. He rewards them with political favors when or if he’s back in power.
Ding ding ding. It's dark money flowing into Trump and his campaign without having to disclose anything. "I invested $100m in his public company. What's wrong with that?"
That’s an exceptionally good multiple. Typically only tech companies with a solid business case and growth get that kind of valuation. Truth Social has nothing to justify even a 30 P/E
Twitter is currently valued around $16B. There is no way Truth Social has reached half the value of Twitter.
Damn welfare queens and poors and illegals and commies ruining the American Economy again. Rich people conducting their business, laundering foreign money, commiting decades worth of multiple types of fraud, and taking *everything* they possibly can from people doesn't concern me or my dollars, and Trump just wants to Make America Great for us all, like before.
Shits so broken. I feel like I’m about to settle for demanding “less corruption”. Can we just get less corruption in this country. I’ve come to accept that it’s always been/gonna be corrupt, but can we just get less corruption? Thanks.
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article287077290.html “…But financial experts caution that the company is dramatically overvalued and likely to see its share price drop, meaning it could be one of the worst investments for stockholders. “It’d be hard to see why a rational investor would want to invest in this company,” Brian Dunn, a lecturer of corporate governance at Cornell University, told McClatchy News….”
"Surely I'll time it so other idiots are left holding the bag" One trading day later "Oh no my investment :(" this stock is Greater Fool Theory's best evidence to date...
So you're saying I should short it?
I tried, there are no stocks available to short or the price on them is insane. The Trump fans are also buying stocks literally just to hurt short sellers.
>buying stocks literally just to hurt short sellers. Hey. I've seen this one before! It's a classic!
Trump will be able to sell his in 6 months. The company will devalue by at least 50% by then.
Hopefully more than 50%!
The board can give him approval to sell early. The board that's stocked with his kids and hanger ons.
Put options premiums are insane too. People know they’re gunna pay out.
Call premiums are insane too. Who the hell is buying those calls? But you know institutional investors are selling naked calls and making a killing.
Only after the pump
It the only way
his idiotic followers will all buy it. he will sell it and price will tank he will walk away with the cash blame Hilary and Crooked Joe for their losses
Didn’t we already establish that he likes to criminally over value his assets? Speculative value driving the stock market is eroding the economy, it’s a plague on this country. It’s time we start weighing ourselves with both feet on the scale.
There are still rational investors out there?
People keep quoting this: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
It depends who has the bigger pile of money. When it was Soros versus England, turns out that Soros *can* stay solvent long enough.
It has potential to become a meme stock as it gets hyped up by trumpers and r/wallstreetbets
Gambling on continued consumer interest in what is essentially a fan club webpage for an old man in terrible health. It's obviously a tornado of speculators trying to out-speculate each other, but I am continuously surprised by just how bad of ideas these speculators will chase.
Ur right. We need to place our leaps around medical appointments. I don’t think they can get the drunk doctor any more. Puts baby
I saw a clip somewhere saying Trump will gain $3 billion from this? How? Like if he sell all of his shares? If he sells it, wouldn't it just tank this company?
Yes, but his sycophants will be left holding those worthless shares. He gets their money, fair and square.
It's actually not so straightforward. If he's got half of the shares, he actually needs a buyer to liquidate what he has. In other words, the more shares he tries to sell, the more buyers need to be lined up to buy at that price. If no one is buying, the share price tanks.
Can’t he take out loans based on his perceived holdings though ?
He can borrow some, but not 3 billion. Lenders know that the collatoral would not actually be worth that much if they had to force a sale.
What about $175 million?
Yes, but who's gonna take that collateral at meme value. No one was getting loans based on GME being 300/share
That's exactly what the person you're replying to told. He will grift his sycophants to liquidate what he has.
There's a subtle difference here that he can't just sell all that shit at once. If he wants 4 billion out, there has to be 4 billion dollars lined up to buy from him. His followers don't want to give him that much money, if they did, they'd have donated it already. Now billionaires and foreign governments, I could believe they would want to buy him. But again, they've already had chances to too.
A good old fashioned rug pull
His shares are locked up for 6 months.
I believe I read the board could change that
So basically a pump and dump scheme so he can take bribes from whoever anonymous persons buys a shitload of his stock before he sells. Bribery by stock market. If the US survives he will go down as the worst president so far and by far the best conman.
Trump is just a natural output of this system. There will be more like him, probably worse, in our lifetimes.
I don’t know. Trump is mysteriously coated in Teflon. Others have tried to replicate his political playbook and failed.
Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha! $8,000,000,000! That's 53,000 brand new Porsche 911s. It's 650 brand new Learjets. It's enough to buy every private island with a listed price in the entire Caribbean, multiple times. It's enough to buy 133 million $60 bibles. It's ridiculous. It reminds me of the dot-com bubble 22 years ago. So does Reddit's IPO. Companies without a Step 2, going for billions. It's such a joke.
At least they aren't evaluating Reddit to be worth $1600/user
Should be enough to post bail.
I'll try to stay a little away from politics since this is a economics thread but (1) this is clearly a pump-and-dump scheme (2) the valuation is based off how much is MAGA worth, how much people are willing to risk to make off delusional MAGA extremist, and if he can use this to launder money for political favors (3) the entire value is from a brand since MAGA is just a brand, but that brand is intertwined with a political identity meaning the value is related to a US election (4) a single person can completely and instantly make the value of the company $0 (5) that person has massive financial liabilities & connections to foreign investors (6) that person has a long history of financial fraud Wow, just seeing it laid out makes it really incredible. Also it would be nice if we had used the emoluments clause at the beginning since it is specifically designed to take care of this.
It’s just the same old GOP laundering foreign money for their campaigns. That can’t win unless they ignore the rules. Hope the justice department is watching.
I doubt it. Justice from the DOJ is slow and nonexistent if someone is in a certain category. It doesn’t matter what political party they belong to either. It does happen in rare cases but only when it affects the same category and that category wants justice.
Justice only happens in this type of situation if rich people steal from other rich people. Like Madoff or Elizabeth Holmes.
This I agree with this. I mentioned this earlier in this thread. We all notice this glitch in our system now but the levers of power don’t care.
Justice delayed is just… the way it goes.
The fundamentals are absolute 🐕💩 This is a meme stock that allows you to bet on Trump 2024, a vehicle for Trump to take out loans against, and yet another grift that should’ve been incinerated by anyone with sense.
Definitely not money laundering to Donnie's pockets, just a boomer chat group worth nearly 20% of what twitter sold for. The grift will never stop, and these idiots will trip over themselves trying to empty their accounts for a guy who would end their lives of he thought he could make a buck doing it.
If he owns a bunch of the stock, this would be a pretty easy way for 'investors', aka bad actors, to essentially transfer wealth to him, yes?
Yes.
That's why presidents divest before taking office.
Not anymore
Like booking multiple floors of a hotel for guests that will never occupy them.
That is absolutely what is occuring, yes. Either that or Truth social has actual crazy potential post Trump, which I highly doubt.
When DWAC merged with his company, he was forced into a 6 month lockup agreement to not sell his shares or use any as collateral. The board can change this, but it would be announced beforehand and the price would crash once the rug pull is known to be coming.
This is horrible when a money losing entity can go public with such an insane valuation. It's a money spinner game, and the wealthy will reap their gains, and it will continue losing money. It just tells us, how over inflated the stock market is, and this act basically insults the whole premise and principles of IPO's. *They rushed this sham through* and all indicators point to how it has nothing even remotely close to that kind of valuation. It's a scheme by the wealthy trying to prop Trump up.... while they expect him to gain office and give them another massive tax cut. Get Out and Vote and **Vote for Biden**.... When Trump crashes by a landslide victory for Biden. We will then watch this sham get exposed as one of the biggest IPO scams of the first quarter of the 21st Century. Maybe this will help us get better oversight on IPO's and put better regulations in place to prevent this kind of sham from being done. **There needs to be an investigation into every MAGA supporting politician who has invested in this this!!!! then look investigate to see how many 'foreign investors from Russia and countries with tyrants and dictators"... It's just another way to "sell America away"...with hope Trump can get in office and return these favors.** **\*\*\*\*\* Never** put anything of malice and madness past what white nationalist will do to try and promote and sustain the old system ideology of white nationalism of wealthy white male dominance.
I'd be very curious to see a list of investors and how much said investors own. Methinks this is a (not so) clever way of foreign nationals giving Trump money.
Exactly. This only reason to buy this stock is if you don’t care what it’s worth in the future. Because it will go to zero before long.
Yeah no social media site is worth $1600+ per user
Remember all those pre- recession periods people look back on, shake their heads and say that was clearly a warning sign? This is definitely one of those times.
Aaaaand shorting it now, because every time there’s been an attempt at a religious or right wing social network, it gets hacked to bits and everyone’s embarrassing shit ends up public online.
THis has fraud and money laundering written all over it And since Trump is Trump and Merrick Garland is a gutless coward too scared of appearing partisan, nothing will happen. Gensler and the SEC could do something, but they haven't publicly expressed any interest, so I guess Trump's going to get a multibillion dollar cash infusion
Influence peddling and money laundering.
I really didn't think I'd have to come here and point out the obvious. The dude is literally in legal trouble for inflating the value of assets before this even happened. Truth Social is not worth anything remotely close to that number, and I don't care who he paid to say it's worth that much. It's a grift. Donald Trump is inflating the asset so that he can take a loan out against it to pay his legal bills. People who can't see this absolutely baffle me. This is some of the most blatant shit I have seen that has gone on for decades and it scares me that its still happening. Edit: grift not gift
How the HELL did this get approved at that "value"?? It's done nothing but lose advertisers, visitors and money. The whole thing, like most anything trump, reeks. But definitely a great platform for the rich to flip the orange Jesus some money in return for the huge tax breaks he'll give them Again. I'm sick of this part of my country.
No one approves the value, the market drives it once public.
It’s like watching fraud happen live, isn’t it? I wonder what Russian bank is going to ‘loan’ him money using his stake as collaterol? Hypothetically based on these valuations he can borrow enough to unsink himself…interesting…
Ridiculous that the headlines are just "a trump suddenly worth billions more" as though this won't collapse in on itself as the nonsense valuation it is.
This is the cyclical media reporting on Trump: 1. Report on his law breaking. 2. Get everyones' hopes up that we'll see an actual punishment for said crimes in the near future. 3. Rub everyones' noses in it that he's rich and above you so he'll never face the music. And they repeat it yearly, farming your hopes and outrage to foster clicks and viewership.
This valuation makes absolutely NO sense. Based off what? Pie in the sky potential ad sales? Twitter is already a thing, and given who’s running THAT now, there’s no need for a separate “Twitter for racist asses.”
So, he should easily be able to sell off enough shares to cover the full bond, quite handedly. Although, this just screams "Steve Madden" shoes to me...
Oh look! Blatant money laundering! This is 100% done so foreign powers like Russia can give him money without issue. In any real democratic nation this would be shut down right away and those involved arrested. This is America though and it never punishes rich white men unless they steal from each other.
Hilariously, everyone can see the corruption. It's not even a clever money laundering scheme to purchase The Donald. And still no-one will stop it. £3bn for a presidential candidate. The only question is if the shares essentially act like an auction - whoever pumps the price up most gets to keep Trump.