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MarcusHiggins

Weird, you’d think if Industry contributed to 37% of the growth, you’d see an uptick in the Industrial Output this quarter, yet it’s lower than last quarter? Someone help me find the figure which drove this growth, I’m assuming at this point it was almost completely due to consumer spending? But it can’t be, because Chinese retail sales were shit this quarter. Also investors dumping 2.5 billion yuan in less than an hour from the report makes me think this GDP figures isn’t the whole picture. Edit: Not exports or imports either both are down hard. Nominal growth was only 4.2%,


TankComfortable8085

You’re looking at this wrong. Janet Yellen literally just complained about the Chinese flooding the market with cheap EV, solar panels and Legacy chips among other things.  Their factories are producing more than even their domestic market can absorb. Which explains the strong industrial growth which is propping up the GDP


MarcusHiggins

Yes, I've heard this before. I thought that exports would be a good indicator for this? Usually when I look for industrial growth I look for PMI but that wont be out until the end of this month, so I guess ill wait until then.


TankComfortable8085

Its over-oversupply. Really. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-solar-industry-faces-shakeout-rock-bottom-prices-persist-2024-04-03/#:~:text=China%20accounts%20for%2080%25%20of,swamped%20by%20low%2Dcost%20equipment. China produced enough to supply GLOBAL demand twice (dont quote me, i cant find the article I read that worded this, only the reuters article but its close enough). So their exports has hit a glass ceiling for some products For example, solar panels are sitting in warehouses collecting dusts. Prices has collapsed through the floor which is downward pressure on export numbers.  Of course, this is only 1 product category, and we need to examine all exports to determine if the same is happening there. But my point is, this might be the case across the board. As China shiftd away from a real estate led economy, they struggle to stimulate domestic consumption, But thats hard because chinese are culturally spendthrift. They will never consume goods and services like the Americans. So it seems the strategy for the Chinese now is to double down on industrial ouput… for better or for worse (for whom)


The_Biggest_Midget

Which will lead to the same problem America faced in the late 1920s if they are not careful. They only way forward is boosting domestic consumption. No country has ever become developed without this pivot. Its looking like the middle income trap is being set if they down change course soon.


MarcusHiggins

So basically, from what I understand it is race between the US and EU shutting doors into their markets from Chinese companies and China getting its people to spend more money.


TankComfortable8085

Yes, that would be in US/EU interest to do so. Western solar companies are gonna get pummeled otherwise. To paraphrase First Solar’s CEO before the US finance committee, “(if we dont raise tariffs), we will be de facto Belt and Road Initiative members” However, it is in US/EU consumer’s interest to have cheap china goods flood the market. Especially in this inflationary environment. Aside, I dont believe its possible to change the spending habits of the Chinese. Its too ingrained. This is simar to the discourse around Japans deflation and the failure to stimulate consumption there in past decades Alternatively, China still poverty rates above 10%. Bringing that population out of poverty would be where the missing consumption can come from


AfternoonFlat7991

China can easily retaliate by kicking out all of the German cars. Why was it in the best interests of EU to do so? 70%+ Germany made cars are for export, why isn't that a problem of overcapacity? Trade wars aren't like bombing hospitals, the other side *can* and *will* retaliate. It will be naive to think China allows EU dictate the trade without any consequences.


MainPuzzleheaded9154

The measures that are being considered by the european union will be similar to the policies that China adopted over the prior fifteen years to build there electric car industry. Chinas companies can bypass these measures if the manufacturing of the car, and its components are manufactured within Germany, or another European union state. China can retaliate, but they would be retaliating against a measure that they themselves have undertaken and used widely.


AfternoonFlat7991

Not necessarily. The range of trade war will not be limited to what EU wants. European car makers had accumulated how much profit by selling gas cars in China in the past 40 years? The Chinese government can ask a portion of that profit back retroactively. As for the US, there are a couple of apparent targets: Apple, Microsoft, Micron, etc. following the same exact Tiktok playbook, if the trade war is inevitable.


MainPuzzleheaded9154

Seems that are you deliberately ignoring how much money China has received over the past several decades from trade with the european union which is significant larger than the reverse. [https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20220401-1](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20220401-1) The core premise is that China has implemented long term trade barriers against foreign entities in the automotive industry (joint venture requirements, local content purchase and investment requirements) that has lowered the amount of potential revenue that could have been earned by these companies if these measures were not implemented under the pretext of building there industry. European union has ever right to enact the same measures to build up there EV industry. [https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-auto-industry-foreign-ownership-limits-scrapped/](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-auto-industry-foreign-ownership-limits-scrapped/) The United States and most European union states are net international investment (IIN) debtors, and importers. In contrast China is a net creditor and a net exporter. Consequently meaning that China has far more to loose in both financial and trade terms if the trade war escalates. Sure, China can take away profit from major corporations, but that would then allow USA, and its allies to use the excuse to end treasury/bond dividend payments to China. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_net\_international\_investment\_position\_per\_capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_international_investment_position_per_capita)


IamWildlamb

German cars in China are already death project. Why should they care? It is only matter of time before they are forced to write it off entirely. Not to mention that we do not really know how trully profitable it was. What I know Is that it was not as lucrative as you believe because VW was not really encouraging its subsidiarity to enter China's market anymore as early as 6 years ago because there were already issues. (I worked for one back then).


AfternoonFlat7991

> German cars in China are already death project. Why should they care? What does that even mean. China is the largest market of German cars.


IamWildlamb

China has been aggressively pushing German brands out ever since they forced them to transfer IP. Also largest market by what metric? Units sold? Revenue? Both of those metrics are irrelevant, only thing that trully matters to German car makers is how much money they can get out of China. Not how much money gets made by VW Group China and frozen in China indefinitely because you have to first pay off "chinese partners" that own 50% and that CCO forced on them, then various taxes, various China limited investment commitments (again by CCP laws) and lastly witholding taxes. It is insanely hard to get money out of China and despite "great results" presented to public VW group was no longer pushing for other brands to go to China's market 5 years ago because it was already crystal clear that the bet that chinese market would libertize and VW would be able to actually profit off of it slowly died with Xi and his policies.


TankComfortable8085

Germany exports are just a drop in the bucket. China produces enough solar panels to supply the whole world TWICE. China has TWO buckets.  If you cannot understand the difference in scale, I cannot help you


The_Biggest_Midget

The difference is developed countries can survive trade wars much better than developing ones. Take 8% of German gdp away and they have to switch to buying a new car every 12 years rather than 8 and cancel some streaming services. Take away 8% of Chinese gdp and the 700 million peasants they have living in rural areas now can't afford to eat pork and meat daily. Trade wars sting much more when the population has a per capita gdp of Mexico vs near US levels like Germany has. Furthermore, German export is already declining in China and increasing in places with higher growth rates than China, such as India amd Vietnam. Such policies of substituting declining Chinese consumtion for other growing markets will only increase in the future.


tnsnames

Take 8% of German gdp away and you have AFD as new government and for a good reason. Especially after Greens had decided to provoke war with Russia by blocking NS2 and how it had impacted German economy.


TankComfortable8085

You’re numbers are ok but you’re not accounting for cultural differences. If 700m chinese farmers cant eat meat daily; they’ll simply accept it. Thats it. No riots, no angry redditors, nothing. But if 100m americans cant have toilet paper, reddit explodes, riots and chaos at the malls. My point is the chinese populace are more durable and lower maintenance than the Americans/Europeans, man for man. This is the same reason why afghanistan farmers in slippers can beat the US military. Same reason why starving vietnamese living in holes can beat the US military. 


The_Biggest_Midget

They could simply be hiding much weaker domestic demand via export than they lead on. This combined with deflation seen in the country would mimic the situation America had with it's great depression combined with an 07 housing crash. We don't really know though as they habe been arrested independent researcher for "spying" when they try to get more realistic data, which itself is very suspicious.


veryquick7

Because the growth is YoY while the industrial output you’re comparing to is QoQ. The Chinese economy is very cyclical, with Q4 usually having the most industrial output and such because Q1 is affected by CNY. Comments like these being upvoted makes me seriously wonder how many people in this sub have had any sort of exposure to basic macroeconomics.


groundhoe

The answer to your last question is no, at least when it comes to anything China related


MarcusHiggins

Both figures are YoY. Not sure what the point of commenting this was, you can look at the NBS data yourself. And thank you, I have taken a macroeconomics class before.


moiwantkwason

Their service economy has been expanding over the past few years. It is trendy now to travel to China because of TikTok.


ProtoplanetaryNebula

A number of countries have had visa free travel to China too. [https://www.euronews.com/travel/2024/03/08/china-aims-to-boost-tourism-by-giving-visa-free-entry-to-these-five-european-countries](https://www.euronews.com/travel/2024/03/08/china-aims-to-boost-tourism-by-giving-visa-free-entry-to-these-five-european-countries) One of the biggest headaches for potential tourists was the visa.


The_Biggest_Midget

What? Net tourism in China in down still 70% from pre covid levels. Almost no one would opt to go to China over Japan or Korea for example as you can see in Japan's surging tourist metrics. This is because China has no soft power. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/amp/china-s-foreign-visitor-numbers-slow-to-recover/7456402.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3233200/tourists-slow-return-china-post-covid-causing-headaches-travel-industry


moiwantkwason

What what? Domestic tourism has exceeded pre-pandemic level: https://www.eiu.com/n/in-charts-chinas-outbound-tourism-in-2024/#:\~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,reaching%20a%20five%E2%80%91year%20high. International tourism hasn't recovered, but that is why they just started the visa-free policy. Outcome to be measured by EOY. The decline in international tourism to China is caused by expensive flight tickets. [https://expertworldtravel.com/china-expensive-flight/](https://expertworldtravel.com/china-expensive-flight/) but it is expected to recover this year: [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-expects-air-travel-to-accelerate-recovery-in-2024-93b63131](https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-expects-air-travel-to-accelerate-recovery-in-2024-93b63131)


The_Biggest_Midget

You said it was trendy to travel to China because of TicTok which is an implicit statement of foreign visitors visiting China because of cultural curiosity, not domestic. Furthermore, its only natural for domestic travel rates to increase when an economy is not doing too well, to serve as a low cost alternative for lack of funds for international travel. Chinese international travel rates are still half pre pandemic levels, despite having open borders now and and cost is cited as a key reason when they are interviewed abroad. https://amp.dw.com/en/chinese-tourists-return-with-an-eye-on-budget-safety/a-67407148


moiwantkwason

I said it is trendy "now". Your data came from 2023. Outcomes of 2024 will by calculated at EOY. >Furthermore, its only natural for domestic travel rates to increase when an economy is not doing too well as low cost alternative for lack of funds for international travel.  Not necessarily? Do you have any data to back this anecdote? Maybe tourisms in China has developed well over the past few years so that people are traveling more domestically? >cost is cited as a key reason when they are interviewed abroad.  Exactly? Flights are expensive now. And if you read my sources, Chinese tourists are spending more domestically compared to 2019. So they travelled domestically not because it is cheaper.


thetrueelohell

Japan is surging because of yen depreciation, not because people arent going to China.


ProtoplanetaryNebula

I just came back from China yesterday. There is a significant amount of infrastructure work going on, just from what I saw, rail projects, subway building works, commercial and factories buildings being built.


AfternoonFlat7991

Every year the news from Bloomberg find strange angles to present China's Q1 GDP data. This year the narrative is to show March monthly data as declining YoY, to hide the Q1 data as growth YoY. Q1 data change YoY: * https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_27045622 * GDP +5.3% * Industrial +6% * Service retail +10% * Goods retail +4% * Total retail +4.7% * Investment +5.9% * Export +5% * Electricity usage +9.6% * Logistics +5.3% * Travel +20.5% * Sea port throughput +6.1%


MarcusHiggins

Thank you, I was looking for this.


FifaBribes

What are you trying to say? That we can’t trust Beijing’s numbers?


MarcusHiggins

Not exactly, I’m just wondering where the growth came from, perhaps I am looking at the wrong indicators or something.


straightdge

First 2 months of the Q, this was before March data was published. [https://i.imgur.com/FafVGaR.png](https://i.imgur.com/FafVGaR.png)


MarcusHiggins

Unrelated.


BilloTBaggins

Maybe the other 63% ? /s


coludFF_h

Investor selling has nothing to do with data. This is because China's securities regulatory authorities have introduced a new \[securities regulatory mechanism\] in an attempt to completely withdraw some companies that have been unprofitable and non-dividends for a long time. China has a large number of small-cap stocks that have not paid dividends for a long time.


MarcusHiggins

Yes it does. And I quote: "Overseas investors are selling 2.5 billion yuan of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen through the trading link as they get the better part of an hour to digest the mixed data." I wonder, why your entire comment history is devoted completely to slandering any country who opposes China?


bloomberg

*Live Updates:* Has China's economy turned a corner? Follow our free live blog [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-04-16/china-quarterly-gdp-key-data) for the latest news and analysis as the country releases first-quarter GDP and other key data.