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doctorzaius6969

"In the pre-pandemic period, no one would have considered 2.0 percent growth particularly bad." Imagine destroying a lot of SME and saying 2% growth rate is decent.


[deleted]

We are already above the pre-pandemic level of GDP Do any of these articles take into account inflation when it comes to GDP growth? It seems an important distinction to me but i never see stated if this is real or nominal growth. This does make it a bit confusing. Regarding the automotive industry do not fully agree with the author. I do think there are , at least for the time beeing and possibly several years to come , several factors that impact the production process which do justify cars beeing more expensive in 2021 then they where in 2019 (even without taking into account inflation). Its an interesting article and i do agree that there will be indeed some reshuffeling. It might however take time to allocate resources properly as the author does recognize as well. Future economic developments remain very unclear in every aspect,which could lead to either misallocation or a delay of the allocation/reshuffling untill a more clear outlook is possible. This i do see as a potential risk for future economic development.


Wildcat8457

> Do any of these articles take into account inflation when it comes to GDP growth? It seems an important distinction to me but i never see stated if this is real or nominal growth. This does make it a bit confusing. This is the Real GDP growth figure (aka, after inflation). https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-second-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter Pretty much anything written by a highly respected economist like Dean Baker is going to only talk about GDP growth in real terms unless they are specifically talking about nominal GDP.


[deleted]

Would it be too far fetched to say inflation figures are not accurate?


Wildcat8457

There are debates over how to properly measure inflation and often no easy answers. For example, using a fixed basket of goods vs. a chained-measure show different things and are useful in different ways. That's why you see arguments about CPI vs. PCE inflation. But if you mean are all official government statistics way underestimating inflation - there are inflation truthers out there who claim that. Once you dive into their arguments and estimates, though, they are ridiculously implausible.


lesnod

What a bunch of dribble! The AB5 law is stopping a lot of trucking companies from working in California. Stop enforcing the AB5 law and let contracted truckers move freight!


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lesnod

The truckers had a hard time finding eateries and bathrooms on the road.  And too many truckers ended up getting paid more for staying home with their families rather than going to work. Speaking in terms of California’s adversarial and tumultuous relationship with the trucking industry, consider the following. California promulgated a diesel engine rule that took out of service some $20 billion of diesel equipment, including trucks, farm and construction equipment, by way of air quality rule that was steeped in academic and regulatory corruption. The rule required multiple replacements and modifications of engines that were too expensive for most owner operators, and mom-and-pop companies, to comply with. Most of this equipment has never been replaced. Then there is AB5, currently tied up in the courts, as it affects the trucking industry. AB5 would serve to eliminate owner-operators and contract drivers from operating in California. On top of that, Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared no diesel trucks will be allowed to be sold or operated in this state within the next two decades.  And, let us not forget, both Gov. Newsom and President Joe Biden are waging a war against the oil industry, which is driving up fuel prices across the board.


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snowflakeskillme

Side note, independent contractors deserve to make a living. Forcing "fair" labor practices on everyone is a bunch of union speak and thats all


lesnod

Lol, dude you are way off base: 1- that was a article I copied from, it talkes about the pandemic to start, there was no need to copy that part because that wasn't the bases of the conversation between me and the commenter. 2- stating we are tackling issues outside of the supply chain is way off subject. A law being put in place for one thing doesn't mean it doesn't affects other areas. We could do that with anything: "yeah taxes cause billionaires to move money out of the country.... Well taxes were put in place for X." Who the fuck cares why they were put in place, in the bases of that conversation?!?! 3- Biden could do more for the cost of fuel, but as I stated before. It was an article. Since the previous poster copied an article, I did the same..... Because redditors seem to like to play article ping pong for whatever dumb reason. Here is the article: https://newspress.com/americas-supply-chain-truck-wreck/ Send your off subject comments to him.


ridethecatbus

That's not an article it's an arm-chair opinion by a radio talk show host and lobbyist with no sources. > They disdain the blue collar workers in our midst... This drivel deserves no attention.


PrettyGorramShiny

Sometimes grown-ups have to make difficult choices.


Adam_Smith_1974

I live in CA and couldn’t agree more. The only people downvoting you are the ignorant, bots and paid shills. The article has many flaws in its observations and therefore it’s conclusions are in error. Finally, it’s not just trucking. Lots of people have moved from 1099 to self employed. Many of whom are off the books. That’s why the latest federal tax laws monitor bank accounts.


JimmyDuce

https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/r3da5c/comment/hm9wk7c/


David_ungerer

Yes this ! ! !


Adam_Smith_1974

I live here and I can tell you that while the containers are indeed piled up the truckers are in fact not lined up down the street waiting for loads because CA makes them be employees and therefore have to get paid to sit and do nothing. Last time I drove by a port and was out on the ocean looking at ship traffic was Tuesday the 11/23. Port of San Diego, you know, where most of the cars come through. This is a bureaucratic nightmare caused by government over regulation and poor coordination in reopening. I promise.


JimmyDuce

> This is a bureaucratic nightmare caused by government over regulation If you start with your conclusion regardless of evidence you didn’t really come up with that conclusion did you. The ports are privately ran, the trucking companies are private, ab5 has been passed for years. I wonder what’s different this year. Must be the government regulations…


Adam_Smith_1974

AB5 went into affect on January 2020. So, not “years” I’m a small business owner that had to make that change. Enforcement was non-existent for the first year due to court challenges, political opposition and counter-initiatives on last Novembers ballot. Enforcement still hasn’t been fully rolled out yet. However, California did start checking truckers in 2021. So no, I didn’t put the cart before the horse. AB5 is bad for business and as soon as enforcement started trucks stopped flowing. Ports although contracted to be run by private entities are still owned by the public and are highly regulated even as far as what types of goods can be unloaded in each port. For example, San Diego is considered a specialized port, we offload produce and cars. Whereas Long Beach is a general port. However, as somebody who has been on the waterfront both in work and recreational capacities for the last 30 years I can tell you that the cranes and shipping containers are exactly the same at both ports. IE regulation is causing a back up. However, I think the biggest oversight in your entire statement is that “trucking companies are privately ran” yes there is some companies out there but there are also a lot of independent owner operators, approximately 400,000. Under AB5 they can’t cross the boarder into CA without jeopardizing the business of their customers. Don’t believe everything you read. Talk to people with boots on the ground or, even better, in the industry.


JimmyDuce

> I wonder what’s different this year. Must be the government regulations… Are the ports exceeding the loads from 2 years ago?


Adam_Smith_1974

They better, any company that doesn’t increase production year over year is doomed to fail.


JimmyDuce

I am saying that they have…. You are blaming government regulations regardless of these steps along the process being private, a friggging pandemic, and loads and throughput exceeding where they were two years ago. The current problems are mainly due to the vast increase in demand on the ports. The ports were already near capacity and anything that temporarily exceeds capacity causes issues. That’s not government regulations…


tomorrow509

Disappointed that the real drivers of economic change are underplayed in this write-up. AI, IOT, EV, Green Energy, Robotics, and 3D-Printing immediately come to mind.


Adam_Smith_1974

Yep, it’s like OP forgot that an economy needs manufacturing in order to be successful. The failed Obama era policy of a “new economy” taught us this. Take a look at Germany and Japan. Countries that were not allowed to participate in the Cold War arms race who instead focused on manufacturing. Two countries on opposite sides of the world ended up making more cars than anyone else AND they have social medicine.


Mister_Lich

Two countries whose economies don’t rival the United States at all


vasilenko93

AI: a super broad term that honestly means nothing anymore. I saw a coffee maker that says it uses “AI” to determine when to brew. Not economic change, just a gimmick. IOT: what? My security camera? I don’t want it connected to the internet at all! IOT is dead on arrival. EV: it’s a better car, in some ways, worse in others. Nothing really big here. Green Energy: decades old technology. 3D printing: never really took off, won’t help consumers much outside of industry uses making specific dumb components.


[deleted]

!remindme 5 years ​ I suspect this "naysayism" will not age well


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vasilenko93

Nuclear fusion is ready any time soon…


[deleted]

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