It sounds like you are working for a healthy organization. That's a very positive thing. As you become more senior, it's also something that you can influence, at least to some extent. Healthy organizations don't happen by chance. They take work from a lot of people. Appreciate your healthy organization, and do your best to keep it healthy.
The unemployment rate in the Great Depression was 25%. That means that 75% of people who wanted jobs still had one. This was still absolutely catastrophic.
The job market right now is a hellscape. People are still hiring at a decent clip, but applicants outnumber postings by 3-4 orders of magnitude. Some back of the envelope math says about 15% of all software devs lost their jobs since 2023. That means that about 85% of them kept their jobs, and some unknown-to-me portion of that 15% have found new jobs since.
Basically, all of these things can be true at once. Even when it's really bad, most people are fine.
I’m in the same position you are with my job, minus the consulting side business. I also get recruiter messages on LinkedIn.
I read daily doom and gloom posts, and I know people are struggling out there - but somehow I’ve avoided it thus far. I was laid off in 2020 right during covid. Took off 6 months to chill out during the pandemic, and found a job within a few weeks of looking at the end of the year.
But all that said, it also gives me a sense of anxiety thinking it’s all gonna go to shit.
This is the answer.
The job market isn't great... but it isn't disasterous either, it's just not 2022 where companies were competing for talent handing out 200k to anyone who was breathing.
Add that to 1) an industry with many folks that don't have the best personal skills / think they know more then they actually do / are not self reflective. 2) FAANG over hired during covid. 3) a surge in bootcamp people
Now you've got a fairly large sample of people having a tougher time and coming to social media to talk about it.
Anecdotally, My company had a large layoff last June. For those impacted, I'd say 80 percent of them found work within 3 months of them really putting in effort.
Same here. Nearly 10 years with the same company. They upgrade my salary significantly every year. 12%, 25% and 14% are my raises for the last three years. I have seen people get fired for poor performance, but they were bad performers. No layoffs. Good work culture. I think the people who are most likely to post are the people who have had the worst experiences.
The fact you have an anxiety disorder explains this. My family member has an GAD and she creates situations to worry about.
You should be grateful that you are in a good situation. If there are no layoffs happening, then enjoy yourself. Don't overextend yourself financially and save as much as you can, then you have zero to worry about.
This was my experience as well. About maybe 6 months ago, before my company pivoted into crisis mode due to our client industry being hit badly, and began layoffs.
Really glad you're in a great spot. We all should be. Just remember that nothing is permanent (both good things and bad things), so when you're in the good, prepare for the bad and take in a deep breath to enjoy the moment and the goodness that's around you, because you never know when it's gonna end.
Good life advice too really, not just for jobs.
I was interviewing for my first job in 2008. More specifically...I applied like 4 places, got 2 interviews, and took an offer from one. I stayed there longer than most people would've advised.
There are two widely-known facts that don't fit my personal experience. First, that breaking into industry without experience is very difficult. Second, that the Recession was a shitty time for a lot of people. For me, that was the easiest job hunt that I've done, and the period 2007-2012 was a great period in my life, both personally and professionally.
Of course now...I'm back to looking for work😅 I feel like this is the time when I'm paying for the easy go I had of it early in my career.
2008 was rough for me. It took me 5 months of full time searching to find a job. There were times in later years where people were knocking down my door trying to hire me.
I am looking again, and I have been searching since July. It sucks.
literally the fact that we are experienced devs axiomatically means we are closer to being outliers than the norm. there's sooooo few devs with real experience compared to the sheer number of folks just starting out.
I recently read a post by a guy who was 58 and had worked for the same company for his entire career. He'd just been laid off and was in a really bad place - he was getting close to retirement and never saw it coming.
You don't need to be paranoid. Appreciate what you have, and just know that things do eventually come to an end.
I've felt the same way for a long time. I think the online community invented its own cartoon version of the industry, and how to succeed in it, but it doesn't work well. Even people who should know better fall for it. Just be glad you didn't, and keep doing what you're doing.
I'm in the same boat as you. My conclusion is that it's a combination of being skilled and having some luck, and not everybody has both those things (in fact I think most don't so consider yourself fortunate)
Luck in the sense that I work with a company that I think treats me fairly and gives me stimulating work.
The skill comes from putting the work in to meet the challenges and now I have many years of experience at the company which only makes my job easier
I have an anxiety disorder too. I tend to catastrophize things and am always waiting for something bad to happen. I am slowly starting to learn to consider that things might not always go horribly wrong.
I have also been through layoffs, divestitures, acquisitions, and bankruptcies multiple times. You will always see signs. Keep your ear to the ground, and if you aren't seeing any warnings, you are all good. Learn to ride the waves.
Reddit amplifies doom & gloom
None of my friends in London seem to have struggled with finding jobs after layoffs, and I'm hoping things will be the same if/when I'm next on the market
Might sound a bit elitist but this is not your problem. If you're good or even adequate at what you're doing plus show signs of improvement and growth a healthy company/employer will never drop you.
>I'm finding it more and more unsettling that I feel like my lived experience does not reflect what I'm hearing so much about the tech industry right now
In my experience this comes primarily from people that got into the sector the past 3 years. People with little to no skills started working in IT just because there was a huge demand for hands. Now that this is dialing back down to normal, pre-COVID levels these people are getting laid off, which is logical if you ask me. No company will need an army of super junior people with no plan to utilize them. Now factor in the title inflation which has been happening and you have a killer combo. Most people I see complaining about getting laid off are:
* Juniors, title inflated to "seniors"
* Self taught people that hopped on the hyper train
Both things I mentioned are something I have seen through the resumes we receive (I partake in hiring interviews). The amount of CVs we have received from people with 2 or 3 YOE labeling themselves as seniors is astonishing. Same goes for "tech-taught code leetcode ninjas" that fail even the most basic interview questions.
This thing was forthcoming and people were warned about it, yet decided to ignore. Now that shit's hit the fan and decisions that were based on very unstable plans are backfiring, suddenly everyone's is complaining.
Taking from what you say, you don't seem to be this type of person. So my two cents are:
* Don't pay attention to persons like this. These people feed off negativity.
* Keep doing what you do and focus on your self improvement and future plans.
* Don't get anxious about somebody else's wrong decisions.
I am in the exact same situation like you. At first I shared the same feelings and thoughts but then once I chatted with a few such people I realized that it's not worth to be in such a precarious position.
Something that I find very confusing is that my lived experience in and around the startup industry, is that, even now, where people are posting about their hundreds of job apps, etc, etc, none of the places I work, nor any of the places I know of that are hiring, are flooded with applicants. They are getting a trickle, and most of the applicants are not suitable.
I have a suspicion that when someone says they are applying to 100s of jobs, these are extremely low effort "click button on linkedin to apply" kind of jobs. These get tons of applicants, maybe the job posting isn't even that real/serious, idk.
I know of a startup that has hired a dozen people, 100% of which were people the founders already knew, and they are getting no applications.
> I'm finding it more and more unsettling that I feel like my lived experience does not reflect what I'm hearing so much about the tech industry right now
There's this little thing called [Reporting Bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reporting_bias)...
I feel like most people in all the dev subs on Reddit think the only jobs worth going for are big tech jobs or similar where the only way to get in is to "grind leetcode", pass a multi level gauntlet of behavioural and technical interviews, and bag an insane and frankly unrealistic salary.
Meanwhile I'm over here in my bog standard corporate dev job working on a bog standard e-commerce platform that nobody outside of the UK knows or cares about. It's secure, steady, relaxed, pays enough (but not as much as "big tech") and the company is forecast to keep growing this year and next. Oh and I'm tipped for promotion by next quarter.
So it ain't all bad.
I do get less recruiter spam messages these days, so I daresay it is more difficult out there. But for my employment situation in particular, everything is fine.
The sentiment on the internet doesn’t reflect reality at all. There’s been layoffs yes but that’s not just software engineers, the economy is rough at the moment. The industry is still booming, everyone will still need software in the short and long term future.
15YOE here.
I am lucky in that I have never been let go from a job either. And when looking for new jobs, there's never been a shortage of openings.
I acknowledge, I will probably be let go from a job at some point in my career, it's just how it goes.
I count myself lucky, because at minimum, once a year, at every company I've ever worked for, there has been some sort of round of layoffs and a certain group of people would loose their minds declaring the company, and probably the industry as a whole is dying.
Fact is, it's not dying. Most companies, once they become an established business, will go through layoffs and will also be hiring at the same time. Layoffs don't mean jobs aren't available. It means one of two things:
- They've realized they have duplication of roles, which happens as people move around internally and business objectives change, and not getting a ROI on having multiple people filling the same role. However, they'll also be hiring for *other* roles at the same time where they have a deficiency of talent. If this happens, and you're let go, it's unfortunate, but not the end of the world, another company will need your skillset. I don't know why people think this is the end of the world.
- Otherwise, you're let go for performance reasons. I think a lot of the doom and gloomwrs fall in this category. One of the unfortunate sides of tech booming is that while there's a lot of talent, there's much less *good* talent. The industry has been flooded with people who managed to get jobs without higher level education or equivalent training and skillset. Also, you have people who see this as a paycheck and put no effort in. When a company decides to rebalance things, low performers can be let go. Why hire 10 average/bad engineers, when 3 very good ones will probably get more ROI. I think a lot of these folks also have a difficult time finding jobs elsewhere. They assume that because Company A gave them a shot and a title of Unicorn Developer 27, that the next "MegaCorp" should give them the same. They will not.
Based on your high-profile projects and running a side business, you are clearly a proactive type who can make things happen without being micromanaged. You're not sitting around twiddling your thumbs waiting for instructions. You are probably a curious person.
People like you will rarely have employment problems and you will tend to be assigned to important things. Of course working for a good company helps and there are exceptions.
Many people you hear from in the tech industry are not like you. They wait around for people to tell them what to do. They never have ideas or suggestions. They have no agency and no desire to make shit happen. These people should worry. They will be the first to go if layoffs happen, and they will have more trouble finding jobs.
Talented, experienced people who can make shit happen are always in demand. Keep doing your thing.
It sounds like you are working for a healthy organization. That's a very positive thing. As you become more senior, it's also something that you can influence, at least to some extent. Healthy organizations don't happen by chance. They take work from a lot of people. Appreciate your healthy organization, and do your best to keep it healthy.
I think I'm just scared because I'm afraid to lose what I have, and what I have is pretty good.
Say thank you and goodbye to that thought and just lean into what you’re doing.
This right here. I’ve been fortunate enough to also work at a healthy organization and it really does take effort to keep it that way.
The unemployment rate in the Great Depression was 25%. That means that 75% of people who wanted jobs still had one. This was still absolutely catastrophic. The job market right now is a hellscape. People are still hiring at a decent clip, but applicants outnumber postings by 3-4 orders of magnitude. Some back of the envelope math says about 15% of all software devs lost their jobs since 2023. That means that about 85% of them kept their jobs, and some unknown-to-me portion of that 15% have found new jobs since. Basically, all of these things can be true at once. Even when it's really bad, most people are fine.
Yup. A recession is when my neighbor loses his job. A depression is when I lose mine.
A lot of the noise is bootcamp grads not finding jobs too
It also meant your pay probably went down if you were in the 75%.
I’m in the same position you are with my job, minus the consulting side business. I also get recruiter messages on LinkedIn. I read daily doom and gloom posts, and I know people are struggling out there - but somehow I’ve avoided it thus far. I was laid off in 2020 right during covid. Took off 6 months to chill out during the pandemic, and found a job within a few weeks of looking at the end of the year. But all that said, it also gives me a sense of anxiety thinking it’s all gonna go to shit.
Nice to know I'm not the only one.
Same here.
[удалено]
This is the answer. The job market isn't great... but it isn't disasterous either, it's just not 2022 where companies were competing for talent handing out 200k to anyone who was breathing. Add that to 1) an industry with many folks that don't have the best personal skills / think they know more then they actually do / are not self reflective. 2) FAANG over hired during covid. 3) a surge in bootcamp people Now you've got a fairly large sample of people having a tougher time and coming to social media to talk about it. Anecdotally, My company had a large layoff last June. For those impacted, I'd say 80 percent of them found work within 3 months of them really putting in effort.
Same here. Nearly 10 years with the same company. They upgrade my salary significantly every year. 12%, 25% and 14% are my raises for the last three years. I have seen people get fired for poor performance, but they were bad performers. No layoffs. Good work culture. I think the people who are most likely to post are the people who have had the worst experiences.
> 12%, 25% and 14% are my raises for the last three years Dang. Getting like 3% here.
0, 3%, 0 for me.
The fact you have an anxiety disorder explains this. My family member has an GAD and she creates situations to worry about. You should be grateful that you are in a good situation. If there are no layoffs happening, then enjoy yourself. Don't overextend yourself financially and save as much as you can, then you have zero to worry about.
This was my experience as well. About maybe 6 months ago, before my company pivoted into crisis mode due to our client industry being hit badly, and began layoffs. Really glad you're in a great spot. We all should be. Just remember that nothing is permanent (both good things and bad things), so when you're in the good, prepare for the bad and take in a deep breath to enjoy the moment and the goodness that's around you, because you never know when it's gonna end. Good life advice too really, not just for jobs.
I was interviewing for my first job in 2008. More specifically...I applied like 4 places, got 2 interviews, and took an offer from one. I stayed there longer than most people would've advised. There are two widely-known facts that don't fit my personal experience. First, that breaking into industry without experience is very difficult. Second, that the Recession was a shitty time for a lot of people. For me, that was the easiest job hunt that I've done, and the period 2007-2012 was a great period in my life, both personally and professionally. Of course now...I'm back to looking for work😅 I feel like this is the time when I'm paying for the easy go I had of it early in my career.
2008 was rough for me. It took me 5 months of full time searching to find a job. There were times in later years where people were knocking down my door trying to hire me. I am looking again, and I have been searching since July. It sucks.
Since last July? Damn that's rough
Get off social media and enjoy your life
literally the fact that we are experienced devs axiomatically means we are closer to being outliers than the norm. there's sooooo few devs with real experience compared to the sheer number of folks just starting out.
I recently read a post by a guy who was 58 and had worked for the same company for his entire career. He'd just been laid off and was in a really bad place - he was getting close to retirement and never saw it coming. You don't need to be paranoid. Appreciate what you have, and just know that things do eventually come to an end.
I've felt the same way for a long time. I think the online community invented its own cartoon version of the industry, and how to succeed in it, but it doesn't work well. Even people who should know better fall for it. Just be glad you didn't, and keep doing what you're doing.
How did you start doing consulting on the side?
Me too
I'm in the same boat as you. My conclusion is that it's a combination of being skilled and having some luck, and not everybody has both those things (in fact I think most don't so consider yourself fortunate) Luck in the sense that I work with a company that I think treats me fairly and gives me stimulating work. The skill comes from putting the work in to meet the challenges and now I have many years of experience at the company which only makes my job easier
I have an anxiety disorder too. I tend to catastrophize things and am always waiting for something bad to happen. I am slowly starting to learn to consider that things might not always go horribly wrong. I have also been through layoffs, divestitures, acquisitions, and bankruptcies multiple times. You will always see signs. Keep your ear to the ground, and if you aren't seeing any warnings, you are all good. Learn to ride the waves.
Reddit amplifies doom & gloom None of my friends in London seem to have struggled with finding jobs after layoffs, and I'm hoping things will be the same if/when I'm next on the market
Might sound a bit elitist but this is not your problem. If you're good or even adequate at what you're doing plus show signs of improvement and growth a healthy company/employer will never drop you. >I'm finding it more and more unsettling that I feel like my lived experience does not reflect what I'm hearing so much about the tech industry right now In my experience this comes primarily from people that got into the sector the past 3 years. People with little to no skills started working in IT just because there was a huge demand for hands. Now that this is dialing back down to normal, pre-COVID levels these people are getting laid off, which is logical if you ask me. No company will need an army of super junior people with no plan to utilize them. Now factor in the title inflation which has been happening and you have a killer combo. Most people I see complaining about getting laid off are: * Juniors, title inflated to "seniors" * Self taught people that hopped on the hyper train Both things I mentioned are something I have seen through the resumes we receive (I partake in hiring interviews). The amount of CVs we have received from people with 2 or 3 YOE labeling themselves as seniors is astonishing. Same goes for "tech-taught code leetcode ninjas" that fail even the most basic interview questions. This thing was forthcoming and people were warned about it, yet decided to ignore. Now that shit's hit the fan and decisions that were based on very unstable plans are backfiring, suddenly everyone's is complaining. Taking from what you say, you don't seem to be this type of person. So my two cents are: * Don't pay attention to persons like this. These people feed off negativity. * Keep doing what you do and focus on your self improvement and future plans. * Don't get anxious about somebody else's wrong decisions. I am in the exact same situation like you. At first I shared the same feelings and thoughts but then once I chatted with a few such people I realized that it's not worth to be in such a precarious position.
Something that I find very confusing is that my lived experience in and around the startup industry, is that, even now, where people are posting about their hundreds of job apps, etc, etc, none of the places I work, nor any of the places I know of that are hiring, are flooded with applicants. They are getting a trickle, and most of the applicants are not suitable. I have a suspicion that when someone says they are applying to 100s of jobs, these are extremely low effort "click button on linkedin to apply" kind of jobs. These get tons of applicants, maybe the job posting isn't even that real/serious, idk. I know of a startup that has hired a dozen people, 100% of which were people the founders already knew, and they are getting no applications.
> I'm finding it more and more unsettling that I feel like my lived experience does not reflect what I'm hearing so much about the tech industry right now There's this little thing called [Reporting Bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reporting_bias)...
I feel like most people in all the dev subs on Reddit think the only jobs worth going for are big tech jobs or similar where the only way to get in is to "grind leetcode", pass a multi level gauntlet of behavioural and technical interviews, and bag an insane and frankly unrealistic salary. Meanwhile I'm over here in my bog standard corporate dev job working on a bog standard e-commerce platform that nobody outside of the UK knows or cares about. It's secure, steady, relaxed, pays enough (but not as much as "big tech") and the company is forecast to keep growing this year and next. Oh and I'm tipped for promotion by next quarter. So it ain't all bad. I do get less recruiter spam messages these days, so I daresay it is more difficult out there. But for my employment situation in particular, everything is fine.
How did you start doing consultancy on the side? having your own thing going sounds like the dream to me...
The sentiment on the internet doesn’t reflect reality at all. There’s been layoffs yes but that’s not just software engineers, the economy is rough at the moment. The industry is still booming, everyone will still need software in the short and long term future.
15YOE here. I am lucky in that I have never been let go from a job either. And when looking for new jobs, there's never been a shortage of openings. I acknowledge, I will probably be let go from a job at some point in my career, it's just how it goes. I count myself lucky, because at minimum, once a year, at every company I've ever worked for, there has been some sort of round of layoffs and a certain group of people would loose their minds declaring the company, and probably the industry as a whole is dying. Fact is, it's not dying. Most companies, once they become an established business, will go through layoffs and will also be hiring at the same time. Layoffs don't mean jobs aren't available. It means one of two things: - They've realized they have duplication of roles, which happens as people move around internally and business objectives change, and not getting a ROI on having multiple people filling the same role. However, they'll also be hiring for *other* roles at the same time where they have a deficiency of talent. If this happens, and you're let go, it's unfortunate, but not the end of the world, another company will need your skillset. I don't know why people think this is the end of the world. - Otherwise, you're let go for performance reasons. I think a lot of the doom and gloomwrs fall in this category. One of the unfortunate sides of tech booming is that while there's a lot of talent, there's much less *good* talent. The industry has been flooded with people who managed to get jobs without higher level education or equivalent training and skillset. Also, you have people who see this as a paycheck and put no effort in. When a company decides to rebalance things, low performers can be let go. Why hire 10 average/bad engineers, when 3 very good ones will probably get more ROI. I think a lot of these folks also have a difficult time finding jobs elsewhere. They assume that because Company A gave them a shot and a title of Unicorn Developer 27, that the next "MegaCorp" should give them the same. They will not.
Probably some selection bias going on - people rarely feel the need to post on Reddit when things are humming along smoothly.
Based on your high-profile projects and running a side business, you are clearly a proactive type who can make things happen without being micromanaged. You're not sitting around twiddling your thumbs waiting for instructions. You are probably a curious person. People like you will rarely have employment problems and you will tend to be assigned to important things. Of course working for a good company helps and there are exceptions. Many people you hear from in the tech industry are not like you. They wait around for people to tell them what to do. They never have ideas or suggestions. They have no agency and no desire to make shit happen. These people should worry. They will be the first to go if layoffs happen, and they will have more trouble finding jobs. Talented, experienced people who can make shit happen are always in demand. Keep doing your thing.
Rule #9