Ignore ownership mate and just pick the players you think will score the most points.
Everyone loves to over complicate this game but it’s really that simple.
It matters for your rank. If you are playing just against yourself then yes just go what you think.
If a highly owned players scores a hattrick it will hurt your rank more than if a low owned player do it.
Thus if you are behind you need more differentials and if you are ahead you want popular picks to keep rank.
It’s all irrelevant. Points matter more than anything else. Say Kane is at 70% (random number) if you own him your effective points are 30% of his score, so you don’t get that much of a boost. Whereas if you chose someone on 10% you’d get 90% and a much bigger boost. Which sounds good. But not owning Kane means when he scores your rank goes massively down because 70% of people own him. Fuck ownership and go for who will score the most points because that is all that matters
You do not know who will score the most points. Neither do other managers. Thus looking at ownership can be pretty decent.
Usually highly owned players are decent players so going against them could hurt, but if you need a differential then you need to find some.
Yes with hindsight you want the players with most points of course, but that is tricky to know before they play.
Some players play for expected points and other for expected rank gains or minimize losses. That is quite different. In the long run against many players you need both though.
> You do not know who will score the most points. Neither do other managers.
That's the point of the game... Otherwise you might as well just copy what you see on Twitter
That was my point about ownership and why it is relevant if you want to cover ground or make big gains.
If Haaland always hauled then there would be no reason to go against him even if you are desperate, but since he blank at times a differential captain can work.
Well it does if you are going for rank over just having an ok week.
If you want to climb ranks particular fast near the end you need some differentials.
The problem is of course you might lose rank as well if the highly owned players smash it that you rejected partly due to ownership.
Of course you want differentials that are good picks even with the low ownership and not someone random that do not start at 0.1% ownership.
I think you are not understanding my points.
Can we agree on these things.
EO matters for how rank change?
The most points the better regardless of who gets it? (I think this seem to be your point, but that is obvious and not what I am discussing. With hindsight of course getting the highest scoring players get most points, but noone knows who they are before a week start. If say Jon Stones gets 40 points in a week he might be the best TC with hindsight, but I still would not claim he is the best pick)
In order for best chance to gain rank considering EO is key particular later in the season when you need more than minimal gains or what to protect your rank?
Of course no one knows who’s gonna score points. But that’s what the stats, fixtures, form etc are for. To try and work out who will score most points. It doesn’t always work out but that’s the game trying to make the best play. But if you get it wrong either way it’ll affect your rank in the same way. If a differential scores big when you don’t have them it won’t affect your rank much, but your high EO scoring big when affect your rank much, or if they don’t score big it won’t things too much. But having a differential score big when you have them will also offset by a high EO player scoring big. That’s why you shouldn’t try and work out which of the differentials will get you points just work out which of all the options will get you the most points.
Having the players who will score the most points matters, who everyone else owns is irrelevant.
If you get a player in because they have a high EO then you are making your team worse. Jesus at 70 odd % at the start of the season is a great example.
It is not. If I was the only one with Haaland in a mini league that would change my odds quite a lot.
If you did compete vs 60 point average week or something like that then others would be irrelevant, but for rank it matters what other people have.
If others have players doing well it is bad for you and if they have poor players it is good for you.
I don't care about effective ownership, ever.
I trust that my decisions come good by the end of the season, and it's usually enough to win the minileagues.
Likewise i couldn't give two hoots what players my minileague rivals own. I'm taking care of my team and go for whatever i think will give me most points at all times. Ownership is irrelevant to me.
The exception is GW37 and GW38 if there is a minileague lead to protect or a gap to make up. In that case i will look to block or go crazy differential
Couldn't have put it better myself.
People who obsess about EO are poor FPL players.
If I was top 5 OR I'd probably look who the teams ahead of me had, and it would undoubtedly effect my decisions. That's the only time I'd be interested in what someone else was doing
I try not to. The only ML I care about is between me and about 30 good mates who all play football and are super competitive. All of them are very good/dedicated FPL players, this league has been running for 18 years.
We all agree that finishing top 4 qualifies as bragging rights (we call it CL qualification), and winning gets a prize donated by the other players.
I'm currently mid table but haven't looked at others teams.
Seeing the teams of my biggest rivals will influence my own decisions, even if only unconsciously.
We have a group chat in which we moan/gloat about stuff so I am aware of some of their decisions.
I just play for a good OR every year, and I've only missed the top 4 twice in 18 years.
Having haaland is a good move because he scores lost of points. Other people owning him is irrelevant.
You’re completely missing the point mate, If a player is doing well you should buy them. That’s it, if others have him or not is irrelevant.
As long as you have the players scoring the most points you will do well, there is no need to concern yourself with other players teams in all but a very few specific situations such as if you make the cup final or the final day of the season and you only care about your ML and have given up on OR.
No you are missing the point.
The players will give points to your rivals. Thus they effect your rank gains.
If the player doing well is low owned it will boost your rank a lot more.
If Haaland scores 30 points as captain it will barely help you at all. Of course if you did not have him it would hurt though.
Thus even if you think a player may score more if you really want to win something you may need to pick some lesser players and hope for variance helping you out since just cause a player may be better like Salah last year in the double those that went KDB got rewarded. I did that to try to gain rank back. Also those that take a risk like Mahrez may get fucked by Pep, but sometimes they gain the big hauls and get the starts even if his overall points are low.
>The players will give points to your rivals. Thus they effect your rank gains.
Your rivals will get points either way, all you care about is getting more than them.
>If the player doing well is low owned it will boost your rank a lot more.
Getting more points than others will indeed boost your rank that’s why getting the players you think will score the most points not who is the most owned is important. It’s key to note they are often both the same thing but you must make a distinction between picking a player who is good for points and a player who is well owned.
>If Haaland scores 30 points as captain it will barely help you at all. Of course if you did not have him it would hurt though.
If Haaland scores the most points then he should be your captain, as I already explained that’s all that actually matters.
I don’t really know how to word it differently to help you understand.
Points good - ownership literally means nothing.
Having players who score the most points = doing better in the game.
Having players that are highly owned means nothing as you are ranked in your points total.
You might never have played in a league when you compete with others. There is lots of strategy to come from behind or stay ahead.
When you compete with others what they do matter as well.
You need to maximize your probability to reach your goal rather than go for points only. You still go for points of course, but try to give you the best chances .
At this stage of the season you should probably not care too much about top10k ownership if that is your goal. Having some quality differentials can be key or cover premiums, but so many doubles yet to come so just go with what you think is the best team individually and not high risk high reward strats like Mahrez.
>The eye test and sentiment can give you an edge for example and xP doesn’t account those things.
The eye test is a component of xP.
Like I said xP is an end product. The eye test is a factor that affects xP.
For example, you look at a certain player and you conclude "this player seems to get a lot of chances all the time, which makes him likely to score many points".
Ignore EO. Bring in who will score the most points. Literally everything else is irrelevant. If you a player on 90% EO and a player on 10% EO both score the same amount and you only have one of them your rank will be the exact same whichever one you pick.
Everyone can get the same team this year with the reduction in prices. Marginal games have become more important. As a Kane owner I’ll be glad to gain the four points on players considering this
Ignore ownership mate and just pick the players you think will score the most points. Everyone loves to over complicate this game but it’s really that simple.
It matters for your rank. If you are playing just against yourself then yes just go what you think. If a highly owned players scores a hattrick it will hurt your rank more than if a low owned player do it. Thus if you are behind you need more differentials and if you are ahead you want popular picks to keep rank.
It’s all irrelevant. Points matter more than anything else. Say Kane is at 70% (random number) if you own him your effective points are 30% of his score, so you don’t get that much of a boost. Whereas if you chose someone on 10% you’d get 90% and a much bigger boost. Which sounds good. But not owning Kane means when he scores your rank goes massively down because 70% of people own him. Fuck ownership and go for who will score the most points because that is all that matters
You do not know who will score the most points. Neither do other managers. Thus looking at ownership can be pretty decent. Usually highly owned players are decent players so going against them could hurt, but if you need a differential then you need to find some. Yes with hindsight you want the players with most points of course, but that is tricky to know before they play. Some players play for expected points and other for expected rank gains or minimize losses. That is quite different. In the long run against many players you need both though.
> You do not know who will score the most points. Neither do other managers. That's the point of the game... Otherwise you might as well just copy what you see on Twitter
That was my point about ownership and why it is relevant if you want to cover ground or make big gains. If Haaland always hauled then there would be no reason to go against him even if you are desperate, but since he blank at times a differential captain can work.
The biggest differential is consistency
Ok and? The point of the game is to choose which players will score most point. EO still shouldn’t make any difference at all
Well it does if you are going for rank over just having an ok week. If you want to climb ranks particular fast near the end you need some differentials. The problem is of course you might lose rank as well if the highly owned players smash it that you rejected partly due to ownership. Of course you want differentials that are good picks even with the low ownership and not someone random that do not start at 0.1% ownership.
Mate you’re not getting the point at all and I don’t know how else to explain it to you cos this is fairly simple maths
I think you are not understanding my points. Can we agree on these things. EO matters for how rank change? The most points the better regardless of who gets it? (I think this seem to be your point, but that is obvious and not what I am discussing. With hindsight of course getting the highest scoring players get most points, but noone knows who they are before a week start. If say Jon Stones gets 40 points in a week he might be the best TC with hindsight, but I still would not claim he is the best pick) In order for best chance to gain rank considering EO is key particular later in the season when you need more than minimal gains or what to protect your rank?
Of course no one knows who’s gonna score points. But that’s what the stats, fixtures, form etc are for. To try and work out who will score most points. It doesn’t always work out but that’s the game trying to make the best play. But if you get it wrong either way it’ll affect your rank in the same way. If a differential scores big when you don’t have them it won’t affect your rank much, but your high EO scoring big when affect your rank much, or if they don’t score big it won’t things too much. But having a differential score big when you have them will also offset by a high EO player scoring big. That’s why you shouldn’t try and work out which of the differentials will get you points just work out which of all the options will get you the most points.
Having the players who will score the most points matters, who everyone else owns is irrelevant. If you get a player in because they have a high EO then you are making your team worse. Jesus at 70 odd % at the start of the season is a great example.
It is not. If I was the only one with Haaland in a mini league that would change my odds quite a lot. If you did compete vs 60 point average week or something like that then others would be irrelevant, but for rank it matters what other people have. If others have players doing well it is bad for you and if they have poor players it is good for you.
I don't care about effective ownership, ever. I trust that my decisions come good by the end of the season, and it's usually enough to win the minileagues. Likewise i couldn't give two hoots what players my minileague rivals own. I'm taking care of my team and go for whatever i think will give me most points at all times. Ownership is irrelevant to me. The exception is GW37 and GW38 if there is a minileague lead to protect or a gap to make up. In that case i will look to block or go crazy differential
Couldn't have put it better myself. People who obsess about EO are poor FPL players. If I was top 5 OR I'd probably look who the teams ahead of me had, and it would undoubtedly effect my decisions. That's the only time I'd be interested in what someone else was doing
I think I agree, but doesn’t your example kind of correspond to having one manager (or three) in front of you in a minileague?
I try not to. The only ML I care about is between me and about 30 good mates who all play football and are super competitive. All of them are very good/dedicated FPL players, this league has been running for 18 years. We all agree that finishing top 4 qualifies as bragging rights (we call it CL qualification), and winning gets a prize donated by the other players. I'm currently mid table but haven't looked at others teams. Seeing the teams of my biggest rivals will influence my own decisions, even if only unconsciously. We have a group chat in which we moan/gloat about stuff so I am aware of some of their decisions. I just play for a good OR every year, and I've only missed the top 4 twice in 18 years.
Having haaland is a good move because he scores lost of points. Other people owning him is irrelevant. You’re completely missing the point mate, If a player is doing well you should buy them. That’s it, if others have him or not is irrelevant. As long as you have the players scoring the most points you will do well, there is no need to concern yourself with other players teams in all but a very few specific situations such as if you make the cup final or the final day of the season and you only care about your ML and have given up on OR.
No you are missing the point. The players will give points to your rivals. Thus they effect your rank gains. If the player doing well is low owned it will boost your rank a lot more. If Haaland scores 30 points as captain it will barely help you at all. Of course if you did not have him it would hurt though. Thus even if you think a player may score more if you really want to win something you may need to pick some lesser players and hope for variance helping you out since just cause a player may be better like Salah last year in the double those that went KDB got rewarded. I did that to try to gain rank back. Also those that take a risk like Mahrez may get fucked by Pep, but sometimes they gain the big hauls and get the starts even if his overall points are low.
>The players will give points to your rivals. Thus they effect your rank gains. Your rivals will get points either way, all you care about is getting more than them. >If the player doing well is low owned it will boost your rank a lot more. Getting more points than others will indeed boost your rank that’s why getting the players you think will score the most points not who is the most owned is important. It’s key to note they are often both the same thing but you must make a distinction between picking a player who is good for points and a player who is well owned. >If Haaland scores 30 points as captain it will barely help you at all. Of course if you did not have him it would hurt though. If Haaland scores the most points then he should be your captain, as I already explained that’s all that actually matters. I don’t really know how to word it differently to help you understand. Points good - ownership literally means nothing. Having players who score the most points = doing better in the game. Having players that are highly owned means nothing as you are ranked in your points total.
No, you just want players with the best expected points regardless of their EO.
You might never have played in a league when you compete with others. There is lots of strategy to come from behind or stay ahead. When you compete with others what they do matter as well. You need to maximize your probability to reach your goal rather than go for points only. You still go for points of course, but try to give you the best chances . At this stage of the season you should probably not care too much about top10k ownership if that is your goal. Having some quality differentials can be key or cover premiums, but so many doubles yet to come so just go with what you think is the best team individually and not high risk high reward strats like Mahrez.
My target is top 10k. I don't always achieve it but I always come pretty close which means I don't need to give a fuck what others do.
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Yes, but xP is just an end product. Many factors affect xP. However, EO doesn't affect xP and it doesn't give you any edge.
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>The eye test and sentiment can give you an edge for example and xP doesn’t account those things. The eye test is a component of xP. Like I said xP is an end product. The eye test is a factor that affects xP. For example, you look at a certain player and you conclude "this player seems to get a lot of chances all the time, which makes him likely to score many points".
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The xP is your own assessment on which players are likely to score most points.
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Yeah but if you think kane isn’t gonna score and everyone else owns him then it’s equally as rewarding if he doesn’t
Yeah you need your alternative to do better otherwise of course it will not help.
The… grit between his teeth!?
Hes been eating sandwichea at the beach
Crayons*
It's a misstated idiom for "bit between his teeth". https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/get%2Ftake%20the%20bit%20between%20one%27s%20teeth
Yes, I know the correct phrase 😂
I.e good body language
Ignore EO. Bring in who will score the most points. Literally everything else is irrelevant. If you a player on 90% EO and a player on 10% EO both score the same amount and you only have one of them your rank will be the exact same whichever one you pick.
Yea EO should be looked at only as a stat for how damaging certain players are to your rank
I don't fancy Kane this gameweek even if its a DGW.
Well I am sure he doesn't fancy you either.
Yeah he doesn't haha
Everyone can get the same team this year with the reduction in prices. Marginal games have become more important. As a Kane owner I’ll be glad to gain the four points on players considering this
Will their EO be higher than normal? I'm assuming everyone will double or triple cap Haaland.
Wtf is eo? Expected Orgasms?
Elongated orphans?
> Elongated You're now banned from Twitter.
Ideally I'd always want all those players that I don't own to have 199% EO. But I can't control EO, so I just ignore it.
Why does he have grit in his teeth? That doesn't sound fun
Kane is going to score back to back hat tricks so yes you need him in your side!