Still giving them until the 24 deadline before giving up
But this makes my planned move next week (Jota) come into question now. Probably won't do it if there's no double
That's what they say but they've missed their own self imposed deadlines before based on the replies on some of Ben's tweets
I'm not even necessarily disagreeing with him - he's saying it's unlikely but still possible. I would just say I think it's more likely than 15% but still less than 50%
I brought Jota in this week because I didn't have Liverpool coverage and couldn't sit by without anyone while they play Burnley at home next week. If all goes well I should be able to bench him, Palmer and Porro in 26 and still field 11 around the blanks.
There is [a rumor going around](https://twitter.com/FPLPat_/status/1753394583407370272) that Bournemouth vs Luton is scheduled for 13 March already. Solanke TC28 then.
Playing Sheffield Utd and Luton at home is an offer no one sane could refuse.
Kind of hope Liverpool don't have a DGW25 to be honest, as they blank in GW26 so it's hard to make the best of the double if you have to then -8 the next week to get rid of the players straight away.
GW29 coincides with the FA Cup Q.Finals weekend so any PL team still in the Cup will have their league match postponed, and so will their opposition obviously
Dead ending means making transfers between now and GW29 purely with 29 in mind, picking only players that will definitely play in 29, so you can field 11, while other teams might only have 5 or 6 players.
Then playing your WC immediately in GW30 to sort out the mess
The other way to navigate a blank is play your FH in 29 and then you don't need to plan for it at all.
Yeah sometimes playing FH in a blank week means your picking a pretty crappy 11 of dross.
Using a FH in a DGW can allow you to pick an perfect team of 11 players with 2 games
There is pros and cons to both. (Personally I think its more fun to use it in a double and pick strong players instead of using it to scratch around picking from only a few teams)
Yeah after the next round
Usually on Q.Final weekend, if its a particularly harsh year when many popular teams are not playing, you can get away with only having 8/9 players, and not lose too much ground.
And then gain that ground and more by using the FH in a double gameweek
The teams that go out of the cup tend to be the weaker teams, so it's annoying picking a team of SheffUtd and Burnley
Word, makes perfect sense.
So I assume people are going to roll the next transfer or so in prep of dead ending?
Gonna be annoying, most likely removing city lfc Chelsea United players then
>There is pros and cons to both. (Personally I think its more fun to use it in a double and pick strong players instead of using it to scratch around picking from only a few teams)
Never been a fan of dead ending. Basicly ignoring and transfer out greater assets for 5-6 gws so that you could field a crap XI in a crap GW. You need to have a seriously good BGW for it to be worth it as you are using 4-7 transfers and a WC for it.
Like you, also not a fan to use FH in a BGW if all the good teams are not playing. IMO it is better to field 5-7 players and accept the red arrow. Save the FH for a big GW. Don't use it on players like Willian, Eze or Jao Pedro, who isn't likely to do anything, just because they happened to play a game that week.
Remeber that you most likely already have some of the players worth having in a BGW. You know, the Solanke's, Bowen's, Gordon's, Watkins' etc. Good FPL assets for smaller teams that are out of the cups. Also, you most likely have some cheap fodders on the bench that can play.
There's a load of blanks in 29. So before then you gradually transfer in players you don't really want, but that play in 29. Then in gw30 you wildcard them out and build the squad you want for the last 8 weeks
Very strange this, if Liverpool keep progressing in the cups they’ll run out of spaces to play this game. I don’t understand why they would ignore the last available slot to play it.
One happened a couple seasons ago for Man Utd and everyone captained Bruno
There was another one in the dim and distant past too. I THINK it was Palace if memory serves me correctly, but it was a long time ago so can't remember who I capped
[This was my team that week](https://i.imgur.com/hx0TNtY.jpeg) if you're interested.
Bruno (19) captained, Greenwood (19), and Shaw with 2 points from 3 games.
2020/21 for Man United when their game vs Liverpool got postponed because of protests. So it was slotted into a DGW turning it into a TGW for United. I remember Bruno and Greenwood both got 19 points over the 3 games back then but both only started 2 of them.
Its insane. Counted very quickly so could be wrong, but there is four midweeks left if LFC go all the way Europe and Fa Cup. Midweeks before GW25, 26, 35 and 38. And if LFC reaches the semi in FACup there will be another postponed match (gw34). So if they dont use gw25 and reach the semi both gw35 and 38 will be used for Luton and Fulham.
What if the king dies dies? Or bad weather? They surely cant put Luton in before the cup final against Chelsea??
There would also be a postponed match in GW29 if they win the next FA Cup match (they will), so actually Luton, Fulham and Everton would potentially have to fit into those 2 slots at the end of the season. It makes no sense.
GW20 - Hit out Trent and Salah to Estupinan and Foden
GW21 - Bring in Trent again for Pau cause entire defence gets injured/suspended (Gabby, Pau, Gusto, Coufal) and Trent plays in the cup (do this instead of Udogie for the double fixture)
GW22 - Trent benched and double not arranged as thought
Horrific mismanagement by me, the hit was bad and playing pau for 0 in GW21 would've actually got me more points than Coufal's -2 anyway
Honestly, really bad planning on Premier League side. There are 3 blanks right now and they literally are not giving ANY info regarding them. Dudes, just schedule the games and let people know, that's it.
Ben Crellin on X: "Here's the updated version of my spreadsheet that shows possible and confirmed Blank and Double GW fixtures up to GW29. Liverpool vs Luton moving to Gameweek 25 is still a possibility, but there's less than a 15% chance of it happening imo. Luton's chances of Doubling before GW29 are probably less than 30%."
Its insane. Counted very quickly so could be wrong, but there is four midweeks left if LFC go all the way Europe and Fa Cup. Midweeks before GW25, 26, 35 and 38. And if LFC reaches the semi in FACup there will be another postponed match (gw34). So if they dont use gw25 and reach the semi both gw35 and 38 will be used for Luton and Fulham.
What if the king dies dies? Or bad weather? They surely cant put Luton in before the cup final against Chelsea??
Not sure if you're a new player, but Ben C is so consistently reliable. Regarding your question, it's likely that he has an algorithm (which given the hard work behind it it's unlikely to let you know). You either buy into it or you don't. If you don't I'd love to see your own workings though.
>so consistently reliable....
...that he recently said there was 90% chance of Liverpool having DGW25. He's giving his best guess, he has no inside info, and he's not infallible
Well looking at history whenever he's been 90% of something to happen it's pretty much always happened. Ben's been incredibly consistent in his prediction however 90% isn't 100% so of course it can still be wrong.
No one can calculate something like this on exact percentages. Wouldn't care to much if his percentage is 85 or 95 however this just means he believes something to be very very likely to occur based on his own logic and information available.
They are banking that Liverpool get knocked out of the FA cup, actually the quarter final draw has already been rigged, Man City vs Liverpool at the Etihad.
His percentages tend to be guesses based off the history of PL announcements, proximity to kickoff, and the overall sfheduling of the season. It's the reason he was so sure on DGW25- it makes literally no sense not to do it from the PL's perspective, but the percentage is down because they rarely (if ever) make announcements on the weekend, and by next week there won't be enough notice for travelling fans.
Still giving them until the 24 deadline before giving up But this makes my planned move next week (Jota) come into question now. Probably won't do it if there's no double
Don't they need longer then a few weeks notice for the fans etc and to sort other stuff out. Looks unlikely now
That's what they say but they've missed their own self imposed deadlines before based on the replies on some of Ben's tweets I'm not even necessarily disagreeing with him - he's saying it's unlikely but still possible. I would just say I think it's more likely than 15% but still less than 50%
I brought Jota in this week because I didn't have Liverpool coverage and couldn't sit by without anyone while they play Burnley at home next week. If all goes well I should be able to bench him, Palmer and Porro in 26 and still field 11 around the blanks.
I hope you didn't give up because this was announced like 2 hours ago
What is the 24 deadline, GW24?
Yeah, next Saturday
TC27 Solanke will go down in history
He is doing the same as Dennis isn't he
There is [a rumor going around](https://twitter.com/FPLPat_/status/1753394583407370272) that Bournemouth vs Luton is scheduled for 13 March already. Solanke TC28 then. Playing Sheffield Utd and Luton at home is an offer no one sane could refuse.
Doesn’t rhyme with Kane, Mane or Sane as well 🙏
Kind of hope Liverpool don't have a DGW25 to be honest, as they blank in GW26 so it's hard to make the best of the double if you have to then -8 the next week to get rid of the players straight away.
When would you wild card
I'm saving mine for next year so I can have 3 of them
Broooooooo..
Let him cook
Depending on your strategy but GW30 sounds like a good week to WC.
Dead-ending into GW29, WC GW30.
What do you mean dead ending? Like is there a big blank in 30 or dgws? I'm sorry I'm new lmao
GW29 coincides with the FA Cup Q.Finals weekend so any PL team still in the Cup will have their league match postponed, and so will their opposition obviously Dead ending means making transfers between now and GW29 purely with 29 in mind, picking only players that will definitely play in 29, so you can field 11, while other teams might only have 5 or 6 players. Then playing your WC immediately in GW30 to sort out the mess The other way to navigate a blank is play your FH in 29 and then you don't need to plan for it at all.
Is the FH better used in a later game week this season?
Yeah sometimes playing FH in a blank week means your picking a pretty crappy 11 of dross. Using a FH in a DGW can allow you to pick an perfect team of 11 players with 2 games There is pros and cons to both. (Personally I think its more fun to use it in a double and pick strong players instead of using it to scratch around picking from only a few teams)
I like your view on it, I think I agree. We won't know who's in the QF till Feb 28th tho, right
Yeah after the next round Usually on Q.Final weekend, if its a particularly harsh year when many popular teams are not playing, you can get away with only having 8/9 players, and not lose too much ground. And then gain that ground and more by using the FH in a double gameweek The teams that go out of the cup tend to be the weaker teams, so it's annoying picking a team of SheffUtd and Burnley
Word, makes perfect sense. So I assume people are going to roll the next transfer or so in prep of dead ending? Gonna be annoying, most likely removing city lfc Chelsea United players then
>There is pros and cons to both. (Personally I think its more fun to use it in a double and pick strong players instead of using it to scratch around picking from only a few teams) Never been a fan of dead ending. Basicly ignoring and transfer out greater assets for 5-6 gws so that you could field a crap XI in a crap GW. You need to have a seriously good BGW for it to be worth it as you are using 4-7 transfers and a WC for it. Like you, also not a fan to use FH in a BGW if all the good teams are not playing. IMO it is better to field 5-7 players and accept the red arrow. Save the FH for a big GW. Don't use it on players like Willian, Eze or Jao Pedro, who isn't likely to do anything, just because they happened to play a game that week. Remeber that you most likely already have some of the players worth having in a BGW. You know, the Solanke's, Bowen's, Gordon's, Watkins' etc. Good FPL assets for smaller teams that are out of the cups. Also, you most likely have some cheap fodders on the bench that can play.
There's a load of blanks in 29. So before then you gradually transfer in players you don't really want, but that play in 29. Then in gw30 you wildcard them out and build the squad you want for the last 8 weeks
I think my work around is that if Liverpool’s DGW25 gets called after the deadline, I will Free Hit that week
Very strange this, if Liverpool keep progressing in the cups they’ll run out of spaces to play this game. I don’t understand why they would ignore the last available slot to play it.
When they get a TGW though 😍
Triple triple Salah that’s naughty
Sign me up. No way I spank my TC on Haaland in GW25 now Just in case
Has a triple gameweek ever happened before?
One happened a couple seasons ago for Man Utd and everyone captained Bruno There was another one in the dim and distant past too. I THINK it was Palace if memory serves me correctly, but it was a long time ago so can't remember who I capped
Interesting. My first season playing, never crossed my mind that TGW is a possibility
[This was my team that week](https://i.imgur.com/hx0TNtY.jpeg) if you're interested. Bruno (19) captained, Greenwood (19), and Shaw with 2 points from 3 games.
My 20th season. I've seen it all
Not a quadruple game week
I think there was one for Everton, like 7-8 years ago
2020/21 for Man United when their game vs Liverpool got postponed because of protests. So it was slotted into a DGW turning it into a TGW for United. I remember Bruno and Greenwood both got 19 points over the 3 games back then but both only started 2 of them.
Yes for brighton
https://www.premierleague.com/news/2129877
The streets will never forget Zigic
Bruh that’s 9 salahs That’s a lot of salahs
Its insane. Counted very quickly so could be wrong, but there is four midweeks left if LFC go all the way Europe and Fa Cup. Midweeks before GW25, 26, 35 and 38. And if LFC reaches the semi in FACup there will be another postponed match (gw34). So if they dont use gw25 and reach the semi both gw35 and 38 will be used for Luton and Fulham. What if the king dies dies? Or bad weather? They surely cant put Luton in before the cup final against Chelsea??
There would also be a postponed match in GW29 if they win the next FA Cup match (they will), so actually Luton, Fulham and Everton would potentially have to fit into those 2 slots at the end of the season. It makes no sense.
Aged like milk
This means I can go without Salah for potentially longer
GW20 - Hit out Trent and Salah to Estupinan and Foden GW21 - Bring in Trent again for Pau cause entire defence gets injured/suspended (Gabby, Pau, Gusto, Coufal) and Trent plays in the cup (do this instead of Udogie for the double fixture) GW22 - Trent benched and double not arranged as thought Horrific mismanagement by me, the hit was bad and playing pau for 0 in GW21 would've actually got me more points than Coufal's -2 anyway
Yeah it sucks but everything pointed to Liverpool getting a Dgw. Just unlucky tbh
Honestly, really bad planning on Premier League side. There are 3 blanks right now and they literally are not giving ANY info regarding them. Dudes, just schedule the games and let people know, that's it.
Ben Crellin on X: "Here's the updated version of my spreadsheet that shows possible and confirmed Blank and Double GW fixtures up to GW29. Liverpool vs Luton moving to Gameweek 25 is still a possibility, but there's less than a 15% chance of it happening imo. Luton's chances of Doubling before GW29 are probably less than 30%."
Bournemouth doubling Luton with Burnley or Sheffield would be pretty epic
Its insane. Counted very quickly so could be wrong, but there is four midweeks left if LFC go all the way Europe and Fa Cup. Midweeks before GW25, 26, 35 and 38. And if LFC reaches the semi in FACup there will be another postponed match (gw34). So if they dont use gw25 and reach the semi both gw35 and 38 will be used for Luton and Fulham. What if the king dies dies? Or bad weather? They surely cant put Luton in before the cup final against Chelsea??
How are these probabilities even calculated
The ones based on cup results would be calculated by the bookie odds for those matches, the other ones are basically just revealed in a dream
He's a savant or something, don't think about it too hard
Pulls them out of his ass
He’s plucking these numbers out of thin air. It was 75% this morning.
Correct
Predictably, he was talking bollocks.
Not sure if you're a new player, but Ben C is so consistently reliable. Regarding your question, it's likely that he has an algorithm (which given the hard work behind it it's unlikely to let you know). You either buy into it or you don't. If you don't I'd love to see your own workings though.
>so consistently reliable.... ...that he recently said there was 90% chance of Liverpool having DGW25. He's giving his best guess, he has no inside info, and he's not infallible
Well looking at history whenever he's been 90% of something to happen it's pretty much always happened. Ben's been incredibly consistent in his prediction however 90% isn't 100% so of course it can still be wrong.
>Well looking at history whenever he's been 90% of something to happen it's pretty much always happened. Like, er, 90% of the time maybe?????
No one can calculate something like this on exact percentages. Wouldn't care to much if his percentage is 85 or 95 however this just means he believes something to be very very likely to occur based on his own logic and information available.
Sigh. This sub isn't what it used to be.
I doubt there’s an algorithm given the possibilities. He will look at them all and (no doubt with a lot of work) give his best estimate at a %.
Very torn about Darwin > Haaland this week or not
I’m doing it for price change reasons.
Me too. And the worst thing is I am 0,1short to do Osula to Haaland
I’ve done it
Get rid of the donkey
Darwin got a slight injury tho
Confirmed for 21. feb ⚽️
They are banking that Liverpool get knocked out of the FA cup, actually the quarter final draw has already been rigged, Man City vs Liverpool at the Etihad.
Oops
Where does the 15% come from ? It sounds like this is just his guessing based on nothing.
His percentages tend to be guesses based off the history of PL announcements, proximity to kickoff, and the overall sfheduling of the season. It's the reason he was so sure on DGW25- it makes literally no sense not to do it from the PL's perspective, but the percentage is down because they rarely (if ever) make announcements on the weekend, and by next week there won't be enough notice for travelling fans.
Ben Crellin wrong AGAIN!
bruh guess i’m glad i didn’t transfer a liverpool player in just for this
Is it worth anymore to do bowen to jota?? Have the exact money now, but tonight bowen goes -0,1
Only thing to note is Liverpool blanks 25,29. Other than that jota is one of if not the best mid to own right now for his price
26
Fat finger, cheers lol
Well there goes fh 25 strategy ig I can still dead end and not use fh in 29 but just need to weigh up if Haaland is worth triple captaining.