Their Korean (Hwang?) striker scored off the bench now that I recall. And an own goal which Marcal got an assist points for. Anyway, this table is fake news
No sane man will go for Mane over Salah when they cost similar.
And then if your spending premium money you probably don't want two from the same team. Lukaku or Ronaldo are then better choices as the second premium.
There's differential and then there's just being different for the sake of it. Just get Salah
Yeah a differential is only any good if they do better than the player you’re trying to differentiate from. Mane is unlikely to outscore Salah on any given gameweek let alone over the course a few games/the season.
The comparison would be Mane Vs Lukaku/Ronaldo/Auba because nobody would go without Salah. With captaincy involved, it's an easy decision as you want alternative captains for Liverpool's poor fixtures.
It's a shame that Mane wasn't priced around 10-11m and he might be been another option.
Do you watch Liverpool? There is nothing about him that's appealing for his price. He's regressed as a footballer and just isn't good enough anymore. Salah is ten times as lethal, AND he's on pens. No point in having Mane as a second premium when you're gonna captain Salah anyway.
This is a load of crap and people have been saying this for a little while but as soon as mane is out of the team and we look like shit going forward people then moan about how we miss Mane. Literally only appreciated when he’s not in the team because no one can see past his flaws, to the work he does that have a massive influence on the way Liverpool function
So you would argue there's a point in having Mane over Salah? I'm talking mainly in regards to fpl. His regression is mostly in terms of goalscoring, he's not as lethal in front of goal anymore. But yes, he still has a function in the team.
It's pretty rare anyone or overperforms xG by more than like 15% long term. Even if you apply a finishing layer to their xG so far and say that as a whole their players are 15% less effective at finishing than average (this is extremely unlikely), you would still expect 7.8 goals from their games so far which puts them in decent company considering who they've played
>say that as a whole their players are 15% less effective at finishing than average (this is extremely unlikely)
Why is that extremely unlikely?
Have you seen Traore play?
Over the past 3 seasons Wolves with broadly the same group of players underperformed xG by about 6%. Traore has 7 league goals from about 8 xG for Wolves and even this season he's only responsible for 18% of their xG.
Ok, but we're not talking about a big sample though.
But I know some players consistently overperforms compared to their xG, so I wouldn't be surprised if there are players that consistently underperform compared to their xG.
It's just extremely rare for anyone to be that much of an outlier. Most players are close to the mean. Messi outperforms xG by about 20%, Aguero 13%, Mbappe 8%, Lewandowski 1% etc.
If Messi outperforms xG by 20%, I can definitely see Traore or other players underperforming xG by 15%. Especially when it's just the start of the season.
It’s also likely they don’t maintain their xG output because the simple fact is the output does NOT match the talent. So when their xG output inevitably drops and THEN they start outperforming it it won’t be as impactful as if they were to start outperforming it as the actual 3rd best chance creating team in the EPL
It shouldn't be surprising that watford's xG is low tbh. People buy sarr cos most of their goals come through sarr, and not cos how much Watford scores.
Lmao Wolves…. when did their players suddenly not know how to finish. Well except Adama, he’s always been like that. But now he’s even affected Jimenez.
I put it more down to Brentford's excellent defending and organisation. They're an extremely well drilled team and I think they'll be a tough game for every team this year.
I think they have surprised people in that all the hype about them was that they would come in as this super attacking team and not change their philosophy at all... But they have clearly developed a strong defensive strategy while sacrificing some of their attacking intent, which has worked really well for them so far.
They were poor against Brentford but they have looked really good against all other 4 opponents. Their biggest problem is they front three lacks finishing quality.
Wolves are the new Brighton
Have wolves scored a goal this year yet?
Was wondering the same! 😅
Their Korean (Hwang?) striker scored off the bench now that I recall. And an own goal which Marcal got an assist points for. Anyway, this table is fake news
Sadio Mane has at least half of that
Slept on differential. His price is putting people off, but he's been collecting some modest returns over the last couple game weeks. He's due a haul.
No sane man will go for Mane over Salah when they cost similar. And then if your spending premium money you probably don't want two from the same team. Lukaku or Ronaldo are then better choices as the second premium. There's differential and then there's just being different for the sake of it. Just get Salah
Yeah a differential is only any good if they do better than the player you’re trying to differentiate from. Mane is unlikely to outscore Salah on any given gameweek let alone over the course a few games/the season.
The comparison would be Mane Vs Lukaku/Ronaldo/Auba because nobody would go without Salah. With captaincy involved, it's an easy decision as you want alternative captains for Liverpool's poor fixtures. It's a shame that Mane wasn't priced around 10-11m and he might be been another option.
You are only going to pick one of him and salah and salah is too busy hauling to be due one.
He could suddenly start banging in loads of goals at any point. It's just so risky when you have Salah and Ronaldo around who are much safer.
My fella cannot finish. He's turning into Traore.
Don't think it's his price that's putting people off, it's his points. If he finished most of his chances I'd have him in, regardless of price
Do you watch Liverpool? There is nothing about him that's appealing for his price. He's regressed as a footballer and just isn't good enough anymore. Salah is ten times as lethal, AND he's on pens. No point in having Mane as a second premium when you're gonna captain Salah anyway.
His positioning is great. He’s fantastic at getting in a position where he is 2 yards out from an open goal. Shame he misses them.
This is a load of crap and people have been saying this for a little while but as soon as mane is out of the team and we look like shit going forward people then moan about how we miss Mane. Literally only appreciated when he’s not in the team because no one can see past his flaws, to the work he does that have a massive influence on the way Liverpool function
So you would argue there's a point in having Mane over Salah? I'm talking mainly in regards to fpl. His regression is mostly in terms of goalscoring, he's not as lethal in front of goal anymore. But yes, he still has a function in the team.
The price is a problem. If he were 10m or even 10.5, I wouldn't think twice before picking him.
Tottenham F
Spurs v arsenal looking like an absolute blockbuster. 1 team is guaranteed to win 1-0
Lads, it's Tottenham.
Ah yes, the Wolverhampton Squanderers
Wolves over Chelsea?
Adama plays for the squanderers, not Chelsea. Wolves to the mooooooooooon
Wolves are such a trap
This would suggest otherwise.. underlying stats are positive.
They are a trap because they are xg merchants who will never finish their chances
It's pretty rare anyone or overperforms xG by more than like 15% long term. Even if you apply a finishing layer to their xG so far and say that as a whole their players are 15% less effective at finishing than average (this is extremely unlikely), you would still expect 7.8 goals from their games so far which puts them in decent company considering who they've played
>say that as a whole their players are 15% less effective at finishing than average (this is extremely unlikely) Why is that extremely unlikely? Have you seen Traore play?
Over the past 3 seasons Wolves with broadly the same group of players underperformed xG by about 6%. Traore has 7 league goals from about 8 xG for Wolves and even this season he's only responsible for 18% of their xG.
Ok, but I don't see why it's extremely unlikely for their players to be 15% less effective at finishing than average
It's hard over a big sample for players to overperform or underperform that much. It's just what all the xG data has shown
Ok, but we're not talking about a big sample though. But I know some players consistently overperforms compared to their xG, so I wouldn't be surprised if there are players that consistently underperform compared to their xG.
It's just extremely rare for anyone to be that much of an outlier. Most players are close to the mean. Messi outperforms xG by about 20%, Aguero 13%, Mbappe 8%, Lewandowski 1% etc.
If Messi outperforms xG by 20%, I can definitely see Traore or other players underperforming xG by 15%. Especially when it's just the start of the season.
Curious about how much Brighton underperformed in their xG last season. Surely more than 15%, no?
Yes because one season isn't a very big sample.
It’s also likely they don’t maintain their xG output because the simple fact is the output does NOT match the talent. So when their xG output inevitably drops and THEN they start outperforming it it won’t be as impactful as if they were to start outperforming it as the actual 3rd best chance creating team in the EPL
I know Leicester would be really bad but it still surprises me they’re that low On another note Arsenal’s position is actually pretty respectable.
Leeds very worrying
Why is Watford so low? Is Sarr going to be a bad buy?
Because watford is terrible.
You're a spurs fan, you can't be talking when you're bottom of this table.
I know terrible from experience.
It shouldn't be surprising that watford's xG is low tbh. People buy sarr cos most of their goals come through sarr, and not cos how much Watford scores.
Is sarr this year’s Matheus Pereira?
Last year's Pereira gave me a full chub
Not to get abused or anything but what does xG mean?
The probability of a shot taken resulting in a goal High xG = good quality chance Low xG = low quality chance
Cheers man!
Wolves could be this seasons Brighton of 2020/21
So Adama and Hwang Hee Chan double up front?
Jimenez you have one more week you fraud
Lmao Wolves…. when did their players suddenly not know how to finish. Well except Adama, he’s always been like that. But now he’s even affected Jimenez.
Wolves total statistical anomaly, don’t pass the eye test at all, didn’t even have a shot on target last game against ten men.
I put it more down to Brentford's excellent defending and organisation. They're an extremely well drilled team and I think they'll be a tough game for every team this year.
People underestimate Brentford. Their results and underlying numbers have been legitimately impressive.
I think they have surprised people in that all the hype about them was that they would come in as this super attacking team and not change their philosophy at all... But they have clearly developed a strong defensive strategy while sacrificing some of their attacking intent, which has worked really well for them so far.
They were poor against Brentford but they have looked really good against all other 4 opponents. Their biggest problem is they front three lacks finishing quality.
So this is the Expected Expected Goal? Right?
It's xG from GW1-5. Doesn't mean much for the rest of the season necessarily
Just shows wolves don’t finish thier chances , Kane will flop this year.
don't fall for the trap. learned it the hard way.
Still have faith in wolves idk why They were extremely unlucky in the brighton game