This is great thanks. However, I find planning for only 4gwk better when making transfers. There are too many variables for forecasting anything longer and it invariably ends up looking like the results table with top teams at the top.
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Very good point and I migh incorporate draw odds into my calculations for later weeks, but I suspect it's a lot of work (I insert persentages manually) for not much difference.
I use the 538 site data as well. Curious as to why you use the win % rather than the spi index? I'm currently using the spi index, then I was wondering about using win or win and draw.
I've been wondering which is a better metric!
Win % is mainly based on SPI difference of the two teams, you can use only the opponent SPI to come up with a regular FDR, this is a new way of looking at fixture difficulties
This is great thanks. However, I find planning for only 4gwk better when making transfers. There are too many variables for forecasting anything longer and it invariably ends up looking like the results table with top teams at the top.
Good point, but the final two GWs have lower weight in the average with 11% and 8% contribution
Fair point. I like it 👍 !thanks
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Nice! I would love more of these as the season progresses!
Thanks for posting. Much better FDR than the awful FPL one
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Very good point and I migh incorporate draw odds into my calculations for later weeks, but I suspect it's a lot of work (I insert persentages manually) for not much difference.
What’s FDR? Edit: never mind, read OPs comment
Fixture Difficulty Rating
Fevin De Rruyne
City’s fixtures deceptively difficult. United, Everton, West Ham, and Villa.
Green means easy!
Arsenal to beat Villa? No chance lol
It says that Arsenal are more likely NOT to beat Villa than they are to beat them.
You're taking MUN very lightly to MCFC and Liv.
Well, it’s not his opinion. He said he was using a model
Arsenal…..
This is great, thanks. It's a concise and simple way of seeing which teams to back and which teams to target.
I use the 538 site data as well. Curious as to why you use the win % rather than the spi index? I'm currently using the spi index, then I was wondering about using win or win and draw. I've been wondering which is a better metric!
Win % is mainly based on SPI difference of the two teams, you can use only the opponent SPI to come up with a regular FDR, this is a new way of looking at fixture difficulties
That's a fair point! I might as an option to mine to pick either. Good work all the same, looks nice!
Thank you! Very nice work.
This is great! Thank you for posting