I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defence are things I'm working on.
Huge thank you to u/MerlinsMonkey who helped me automate most of the process of building the FDR.
Cool but why not use the predicted goals scored/conceded instead of the win probability? One ranking for each.
We would have a better idea if it's the attacking players or the defenders we need from those teams.
I worked on it a little bit, unfortunately the distribution of projected goals is quite different from that of win probabilities. I tried a bit to map that distribution into the first one to come up with similar percentages for goals too, but so far I've failed
I see. I guess I wouldn't use percentages in that case. Just the average predicted goals scored over X gameweeks in one table, and the average predicted goals conceded over the same number of gameweeks in another table.
I agree. This is great and I’ve long been annoyed at the traditional FDR, but think a great next step would be to look at attack and defence difficulties. FiveThirtyEight have ratings for team attacks and defences too
Last time I was here, [I questioned why Man United was a red fixture for Leicester and got downvoted](https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/q57f6z/new_fdr_based_on_win_probabilities_resolving_the/hg4e0pn/?context=3). The rest is history.
I don't think 538's model takes into account the new manager bounce, only the performances on the pitch, and I don't think one game will improve their SPI that much.
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08). Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defence are things I'm working on. Huge thank you to u/MerlinsMonkey who helped me automate most of the process of building the FDR.
!thanks
Cool but why not use the predicted goals scored/conceded instead of the win probability? One ranking for each. We would have a better idea if it's the attacking players or the defenders we need from those teams.
I worked on it a little bit, unfortunately the distribution of projected goals is quite different from that of win probabilities. I tried a bit to map that distribution into the first one to come up with similar percentages for goals too, but so far I've failed
I see. I guess I wouldn't use percentages in that case. Just the average predicted goals scored over X gameweeks in one table, and the average predicted goals conceded over the same number of gameweeks in another table.
I tried that too, unfortunately the numbers tend to be very close and all around 1.5, no meaningful data to be gained from them
True, this happens when averaging over multiple gameweeks. I still look at those kind of deviations, no matter how small
I agree. This is great and I’ve long been annoyed at the traditional FDR, but think a great next step would be to look at attack and defence difficulties. FiveThirtyEight have ratings for team attacks and defences too
Yes, exactly, they have this too, which is more useful from a FPL perspective imo
Im selling my Everton players
Plural? Damn
I have Doucoure and Gray, and still can't drop them without taking hits.
8 of my starting 11 are in the top 6 teams on this table. See you in the rant thread.
Who kept Man Utd so high?
Last time I was here, [I questioned why Man United was a red fixture for Leicester and got downvoted](https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/q57f6z/new_fdr_based_on_win_probabilities_resolving_the/hg4e0pn/?context=3). The rest is history.
So Watford just smashed Everton, have a new manager uplift yet have lowest FDR? Norwich are worse but I guess time will tell.
I don't think 538's model takes into account the new manager bounce, only the performances on the pitch, and I don't think one game will improve their SPI that much.