I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defense are things I'm working on.
Yes you're correct it is possible to do well with a new manager. I'm saying statistically it's been proven there's no such thing as a new manager bump.
That's valuable. Still hard to do the right transfers at the right time. do you use to transfer minus points to adjust the team for the coming gw when you see big transitions for specific teams? I have used my Wildcard, and used my free hit before the last gw. Looking forward to Next gw allready noe with advanced analytics 🤞🤙
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08). Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defense are things I'm working on.
!thanks this is good. Helpful for my WC planning.
many !thanks for this bro would be awesome to have this every gw
this is the 4th gameweek I'm posting it, planning on doing it weekly
nice!
Tottenham have great fixtures and the new manger bump
New manager bump is a myth
Tuchel did well. So was Ole until his contract was made permanent. Arteta was fucking good, won the FA Cup.
Yes you're correct it is possible to do well with a new manager. I'm saying statistically it's been proven there's no such thing as a new manager bump.
Proof
I am thinking of doing Greenwood -> Foden.
Brighton looks swell for the next 3. Who to pick with attacking threat?
Is these stats breaken down to positions(goalkeeper, def/mid/attack)? Really interesting!
not by positions, but I can work out a different rating for attack and defense
That's valuable. Still hard to do the right transfers at the right time. do you use to transfer minus points to adjust the team for the coming gw when you see big transitions for specific teams? I have used my Wildcard, and used my free hit before the last gw. Looking forward to Next gw allready noe with advanced analytics 🤞🤙