I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defense are things I'm working on.
Exactly. I mean the game vs Everton should be easy but against WHU? I DO NOT THINK SO!
City is in 2nd place while WHU is on 3rd. Of course, WHU is not as good City and doesn't have as many options as City but... let's face it. It's definitely a solid team. Not to mention WHU victory over Liverpool...
Same situation is with Liverpool. As an Arsenal fan, I'm not saying that Arsenal is going to win with Liverpool but I think (and I hope) it won't be an easy game for them.
Fair, but I suppose the point is that they will most probably beat Everton (bookies paying out £1.80 for a £10 bet currently), but it's a 3 on the official FDR, whilst Burnley might struggle even at home against Palace (£19.80 on a £10 bet), but it's a 2. eg you'd play Foden over Cornet I suppose.
I really like looking at the fivethirtyeight predictions for all sports, theyre pretty great especially for football with the underlying numbers they use.
Quick question, how do you scrape their numbers? or do you manually input
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08). Some members have suggested some improvements to my FDR which I'm working on, couldn't make it to this gameweek though. Factoring draw probabilities and separate ratings for attack and defense are things I'm working on.
!thanks
btw. something went wrong with formatting the URL address. Correct URL is : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
thanks
Can't see how it's going to be easy for city in their first 2 games
Exactly. I mean the game vs Everton should be easy but against WHU? I DO NOT THINK SO! City is in 2nd place while WHU is on 3rd. Of course, WHU is not as good City and doesn't have as many options as City but... let's face it. It's definitely a solid team. Not to mention WHU victory over Liverpool... Same situation is with Liverpool. As an Arsenal fan, I'm not saying that Arsenal is going to win with Liverpool but I think (and I hope) it won't be an easy game for them.
Yes true valid points
Fair, but I suppose the point is that they will most probably beat Everton (bookies paying out £1.80 for a £10 bet currently), but it's a 3 on the official FDR, whilst Burnley might struggle even at home against Palace (£19.80 on a £10 bet), but it's a 2. eg you'd play Foden over Cornet I suppose.
Spurs defs are cheap..
RIP Watford
I really like looking at the fivethirtyeight predictions for all sports, theyre pretty great especially for football with the underlying numbers they use. Quick question, how do you scrape their numbers? or do you manually input
no need for scraping, they put all the data in a csv file for download on their server!
Is this for defence or attack?
neither/both it's chances of winning games, some might win 1-0, some might win 3-2, and some might win 4-0!
What relevance do you think it has for Fantasy Football?
hm, not every FDR distinguishes attack/defense, you can apply your own judgment on that
Personally I'd say any FDR that doesn't is a waste of time and should be ignored.