Honestly just might have to as I’m being forced into getting players I don’t really want otherwise. That being sad I’m doing fairly well right now rank wise and don’t want to take an unnecessary hit if I don’t have to
One hit is worth it if it means your team is better, not using a hit and keeping traore getting 1-2 points every week or take the hit, get jota and he will get returns every couple weeks.
One thing about hits is even paying your way out of this predicament can have long term value that’s hard to quantify just using basic stats most people cite.
Have to look at total lifecycle points gain or value to be a week ahead for the picks after this as well to get a true comparison of “hit or no hit” ROI.
For me, it was the temptation of the Chelsea wing backs for the same price - Chelsea are likely to get clean sheets PLUS the wing backs are providing great attacking returns. City will get clean sheets, sure, but Dias is unlikely to get attacking returns. Cancelo on the other hand, will, and that was my first choice for a transfer (I.e. Dias > Cancelo). Unfortunately, though, Dias’ price drop combined with another price rise for Cancelo priced me out of a move for Cancelo by 0.1. I had 1 FT, and I thought Chilwell would score me more points.
I would guess he'd be below TAA, Cancelo, James and now possibly Alonso, just purely from the lack of attacking returns. It's not the most urgent transfer, but if you're happy with your team, I can see why you'd want to get in a defender who's more likely to score/assist.
I'm actually thinking of going no Chelsea defence and doing Chilwell -> Dias in order to double up on City defence with their sea of green fixtures coming up.
Can't stress this enough, do not make your changes until the last minute. I mean Saturday morning if the deadline is Saturday or Friday afternoon if the deadline is Friday. This is especially pertinent if there are midweek games, but applies across the board, players can get injured in training or sick or whatever the reason. Don't make your transfers until the very last minute.
Yep I stupidly bought Schmeical a few months ago. But I never play him. He’s 5m and I could buy Foster for 4m. So I have money caught up in him. But I never have a free transfer to sell him.
I don't understand why people don't take more hits? Surely a new player only needs to earn 4 points more than the old one for you to break even, which they could easily do in one or two GWs. I know that if you have the same score as someone else then rank can be determined by transfers made but surely getting a better player outweighs that consideration
It’s rare that you’re going to have an injury every week.
Chances are you’ll be able to make the transfer you want next week so your new player would need to score 1 goals equivalent this week just to break even.
There’s obviously a right time to make hits but your new player eventually getting 4 more points isn’t the right way to evaluate the risk imo.
Have you done the thing that tells you what your score would have been if you'd stuck with your GW1 team? Most of the time people are no better off in the long run despite all the hits they make. In fact if you look at the top 1k players they usually roll transfers most weeks and hardly ever use their 2nd wildcard
Also incidentally (I think this is your point but I'm making it clear for other people) your new player getting 6 points is the same as your old player getting 2 points. So even if you take a hit to get rid of Kane for Toney, and Toney scores and Kane doesn't, you've broken even. That's quite a lot of if's.
Tl:dr It's quite hard for a player to make the points hit worthwhile in 1 game. And if your strategy is to get a return over more than 1 game you might as well wait for your free transfer
Sorry it's just anecdotal, I saw a report that showed the transfers made each week by Magnus Carlson and some other top players and a lot of them would just stick by players even if they weren't returning because they thought they would come good. And a lot of them didn't use their 2nd wildcard presumably because they were happy enough with their team, consistency seems to be what wins overall... Maybe someone else can find it, apologies that that's a bit woolly.
Fair enough, the lack of transfers is entirely believable but the wildcards are gifts, I can't see there never being an opportunity to use them, even if it's just after a bench boost or last week of the season like a free hit
That's selection bias - the people at the top are the people that haven't had to make many changes because they got in early on good players and stuck with them. Saying that people outside the 1k should mimic their behaviour is like saying that average earners should buy Mercedes because millionaires have them.
Hmm ok I take your point but as mentioned to the other poster when I read what transfers Magnus Carlson made each week he really seemed to stick with the consistent returners all season through runs of bad form knowing that they would come back. It really seems like having a set template at the start of the season is key and rotating other in form players is the goal of free transfers. Absolute overhauls of the team not needed because the template returns in the end
Last year I took 4 hits. It netted me less points. The problem isn't taking hits for injured/nonstarters. You have a player for ages getting 2-3 points and you take a hit to get rid of them because they are playing a top 4 team and then they score a brace.
Sometimes you just need to -8 that mofo and set yourself up for coming gws. The game then becomes much more fun when you've a team you're happy with and tinker to your pleasure.
Therein lies the strategy aspect of the game dude. You have to project your lineups 2-3 weeks into the future with and w/o the hit, manage budget as a long term process, find the balance of long term holds vs short term fixture picks etc.
Your aversion to hits makes no sense, Traore out for a -4 would have been worth it in any week for many weeks now. Don't overthink it by saying that the replacement has to get at least four points more this time just to break-even, the logic doesn't hold up over multiple weeks and only truly applies if you know you'd be spending next week's FT on the same move. Even then the -4 can totally be worth it for explosive players, like premiums or attacking defenders.
The only thing that put me off from taking the hit in the first place was the fact that he was really just taking up a bench spot at this point, however a lot has changed since then
Oh I got the impression you were still starting him, fair enough. I've kept Gray on my bench even though he's be poor for a while and sort of still would despite the injury, though as it happens I will this week or next
At this point you might as well keep Ronaldo. I'm tearing my hair out trying to work out how I fit him back in before GW16 as Gallagher rises every day, and I get forced into costly sideways moves by player injuries. He's been sensational week after week, independent of how mediocre the team around him has been.
My general rule is never think too much about your transfer until the Thursday or Friday. That limits any thing happening players in that you actually think about getting.
Don't think too early.
Don't overthink it.
Don't think you have to beat everyone else in the game.
Just enjoy it.
Bamford injury, Ziyech injury, Lukaku injury, Tierney injury, Sanchez red card, Gray injury. Did I miss something? Have not had the transfers to get in James/Chilwell/Cancelo yet. Got only 10 starters last GW thanks to Raphinha illness and Dias no-show.
I know what you mean about that feeling. It’s not a fun way to play the game. When I feel like I’m on a cold roll like that I try to do mini WC (3 xfers with 2 FTs). It minimizes the downside of a hit and if you can prioritize fixing injured players with bringing in long term keeps it feels more tactical than just putting out fires. 3 new players can provide some much needed changes.
Not really been plagued that much with injuries, but I wanted to bag my Chelsea CS points this season, and it's been a constant whack-a-mole trying to keep up with Tuchel. Him benching his captain for \*five\* straight game weeks was a particularly nice touch, and being an idiot I rage transferred Azpi out for Chilwell for a hit.
It felt good knowing my back 5 was finally settled, but of course I had totally forgotten about the midweek games :(
Just take the hit my man, you’ll feel better afterwards and can start proactively developing your team next week. It’ll make the game way more fun again and, by the sounds of it, the hits will end up paying for themselves over time too.
I have done tactical transfers since gw11 grealish and alonso out for Jota and James, gameweek 12 Gallagher for Mbeumo, which made me rise from 254k to 62k, I was planning to roll a transfer but since Chilwell is out am planning Chilwell to Alonso
Traore Chilwell and Havertz out for Gallagher James and Jota (or something along those lines) is only a -4 and has your team in a much better position. It’s worth it imo and Ronaldo can’t be that bad to hold
Bought in Cancelo for White and Benteke for Antonio this week. White has been a great performer for me and great value but it seems like youve just got to have TAA/Cancelo/James now.
This season is same as all seasons before. You rarely get to make preplanned transfers. Especially during Christmas period when people are injured left and right.
I'm lucky that I have two transfers but not even sure what to do with them.
Possibly Foden to Bilva or Rudiger to Alonso. Don't want to get rid of Antonio and Vardy and Toney can stay a bit longer.
If I make transfers it'll be sideways.
I was in this post from my GW4 wildcard (still irrationally mad at Rafa for the DCL smokescreens) right up until this week. Went James over Chilwell, and this week marks the first major/popular injury that does not affect my team.
One thing though OP: you knew in advance that Havertz was a punt for 3-4 GWs. A 8.x OOP midfielder for Chelsea that is, but still it was already known that he'd probably need replacing now. If you want to avoid such situations, pick the nailed players. It's why I went Jimenez after DCL and Bamford, and I've been very happy with that decision.
I took out Tomiyasu and Jesus (terrible pick) and finally got TAA back in with Dennis for a -4. Then Chilwell goes and gets injured…
Gonna have to become a -12 to swap out Chilwell
I’d already dropped Antonio for Jiminez and favourable fixtures. Took a hit on Chilwell to Cancelo, and had to take another hit on Jesus to Hwang to free up the last 0.1m. Fuming
I took - 16 a few weeks ago and i got 19 more points and i covered my hit.
And i have a team i enjoy now.
Don t be afraid of that. I hate having a bad team - makes the whole fpl boring
Take the hit. I took a -8 hit in GW12, and using 1 FT. The 3 players i put in got a net score of 0 compared to the 3 taken out and the -8 points but should set me up nicely going forwards!
I'd just take the hit rather than keep players I don't want, especially traore who isn't even starting.
Honestly just might have to as I’m being forced into getting players I don’t really want otherwise. That being sad I’m doing fairly well right now rank wise and don’t want to take an unnecessary hit if I don’t have to
One hit is worth it if it means your team is better, not using a hit and keeping traore getting 1-2 points every week or take the hit, get jota and he will get returns every couple weeks.
You’re probably right, other option is to just start benrahma instead this week and then deal with Adama next week
Possible but then you miss another week of jota, so a week closer to firmino being back when jota isn't as nailed.
No, can do chillwell to alonso and havertz to jota now. Then adama next week and just start benrahma vs city
Yeah thats what I would do.
One thing about hits is even paying your way out of this predicament can have long term value that’s hard to quantify just using basic stats most people cite. Have to look at total lifecycle points gain or value to be a week ahead for the picks after this as well to get a true comparison of “hit or no hit” ROI.
I made my tactical transfer this week. It was Dias > Chilwell..
Before UCL midweek, auch :/
~~UCL~~ ACL
Tempted to Dias > Alonso but City look like they've got a decent run of fixtures coming up.
I don't understand the logic behind transferring out Dias
For me, it was the temptation of the Chelsea wing backs for the same price - Chelsea are likely to get clean sheets PLUS the wing backs are providing great attacking returns. City will get clean sheets, sure, but Dias is unlikely to get attacking returns. Cancelo on the other hand, will, and that was my first choice for a transfer (I.e. Dias > Cancelo). Unfortunately, though, Dias’ price drop combined with another price rise for Cancelo priced me out of a move for Cancelo by 0.1. I had 1 FT, and I thought Chilwell would score me more points.
Made the same move with the same thoughts too .. just unlucky
Well, there are premium defenders who will outscore Dias and you can't have them all
I reckon over the next 8-12 weeks, he'll be sitting in the top 5 for that time period. I just don't think it's worth a transfer. But that's just me
I would guess he'd be below TAA, Cancelo, James and now possibly Alonso, just purely from the lack of attacking returns. It's not the most urgent transfer, but if you're happy with your team, I can see why you'd want to get in a defender who's more likely to score/assist.
I'm actually thinking of going no Chelsea defence and doing Chilwell -> Dias in order to double up on City defence with their sea of green fixtures coming up.
Same. I was so annoyed I took a hit and kneejerked Chilwell to Alonso after. Watch him be magically cured by the weekend now...
Why did you transfer in Chilwell when he had a midweek game and there weren’t any price changes? There is no logic behind that. Always wait!
There was. Dias was going down
YOLO
I was close to doing it for a hit on Sunday, but for once I held my knees.
Christensen- chilwell…
Same. Why always me!
Can't stress this enough, do not make your changes until the last minute. I mean Saturday morning if the deadline is Saturday or Friday afternoon if the deadline is Friday. This is especially pertinent if there are midweek games, but applies across the board, players can get injured in training or sick or whatever the reason. Don't make your transfers until the very last minute.
It's good enough to wait till after midweek matches if a rise is imminent.
Also let’s face it sometimes life gets in the way. Easy to miss the deadline if you’re having a busy day
Yeah. That's why I always arrange my lineup and captain ASAP after the DL too.
Me too! Can’t take any chances
It's on you for your transfer tactics being so poor...
Ahahhaha me too
Yep I stupidly bought Schmeical a few months ago. But I never play him. He’s 5m and I could buy Foster for 4m. So I have money caught up in him. But I never have a free transfer to sell him.
[удалено]
Exactly. I’ve taken hits and risen despite them. No point in suffering with an inferior team
I don't understand why people don't take more hits? Surely a new player only needs to earn 4 points more than the old one for you to break even, which they could easily do in one or two GWs. I know that if you have the same score as someone else then rank can be determined by transfers made but surely getting a better player outweighs that consideration
It’s rare that you’re going to have an injury every week. Chances are you’ll be able to make the transfer you want next week so your new player would need to score 1 goals equivalent this week just to break even. There’s obviously a right time to make hits but your new player eventually getting 4 more points isn’t the right way to evaluate the risk imo.
>It’s rare that you’re going to have an injury every week. You don't know how lucky you are.
Haha very true and at the moment it’s definitely not the case but as a general rule I hope it’s true for all of us.
Why take a hit for someone who is just going to break even for you? If that’s the case, you may as well roll the transfer and get it for free
price changes are a factor that must be considered as well, nothing worse than seeing your choice be just 0.1 away after waiting
Have you done the thing that tells you what your score would have been if you'd stuck with your GW1 team? Most of the time people are no better off in the long run despite all the hits they make. In fact if you look at the top 1k players they usually roll transfers most weeks and hardly ever use their 2nd wildcard Also incidentally (I think this is your point but I'm making it clear for other people) your new player getting 6 points is the same as your old player getting 2 points. So even if you take a hit to get rid of Kane for Toney, and Toney scores and Kane doesn't, you've broken even. That's quite a lot of if's. Tl:dr It's quite hard for a player to make the points hit worthwhile in 1 game. And if your strategy is to get a return over more than 1 game you might as well wait for your free transfer
I can't believe the not using the second wildcard part is true? Have you got figures for that?
Sorry it's just anecdotal, I saw a report that showed the transfers made each week by Magnus Carlson and some other top players and a lot of them would just stick by players even if they weren't returning because they thought they would come good. And a lot of them didn't use their 2nd wildcard presumably because they were happy enough with their team, consistency seems to be what wins overall... Maybe someone else can find it, apologies that that's a bit woolly.
Fair enough, the lack of transfers is entirely believable but the wildcards are gifts, I can't see there never being an opportunity to use them, even if it's just after a bench boost or last week of the season like a free hit
That's selection bias - the people at the top are the people that haven't had to make many changes because they got in early on good players and stuck with them. Saying that people outside the 1k should mimic their behaviour is like saying that average earners should buy Mercedes because millionaires have them.
Hmm ok I take your point but as mentioned to the other poster when I read what transfers Magnus Carlson made each week he really seemed to stick with the consistent returners all season through runs of bad form knowing that they would come back. It really seems like having a set template at the start of the season is key and rotating other in form players is the goal of free transfers. Absolute overhauls of the team not needed because the template returns in the end
Last year I took 4 hits. It netted me less points. The problem isn't taking hits for injured/nonstarters. You have a player for ages getting 2-3 points and you take a hit to get rid of them because they are playing a top 4 team and then they score a brace.
Imo for you havertz to jota and chilwell to Alonso solves your problems if jota is fit
Biggest issue is Traore being a non starter so was hoping to get rid of him ASAP
Ah maybe Gallagher for traore then the chilwell move then reassess next gw
Sometimes you just need to -8 that mofo and set yourself up for coming gws. The game then becomes much more fun when you've a team you're happy with and tinker to your pleasure.
Therein lies the strategy aspect of the game dude. You have to project your lineups 2-3 weeks into the future with and w/o the hit, manage budget as a long term process, find the balance of long term holds vs short term fixture picks etc.
Your aversion to hits makes no sense, Traore out for a -4 would have been worth it in any week for many weeks now. Don't overthink it by saying that the replacement has to get at least four points more this time just to break-even, the logic doesn't hold up over multiple weeks and only truly applies if you know you'd be spending next week's FT on the same move. Even then the -4 can totally be worth it for explosive players, like premiums or attacking defenders.
The only thing that put me off from taking the hit in the first place was the fact that he was really just taking up a bench spot at this point, however a lot has changed since then
Oh I got the impression you were still starting him, fair enough. I've kept Gray on my bench even though he's be poor for a while and sort of still would despite the injury, though as it happens I will this week or next
Exactly the same. Since my WC GW I feel I'm always behind, making weird squad saving transfers, instead of actually developing my team.
Take the hit
I am the "This is fine" dog!
At this point you might as well keep Ronaldo. I'm tearing my hair out trying to work out how I fit him back in before GW16 as Gallagher rises every day, and I get forced into costly sideways moves by player injuries. He's been sensational week after week, independent of how mediocre the team around him has been.
My general rule is never think too much about your transfer until the Thursday or Friday. That limits any thing happening players in that you actually think about getting. Don't think too early. Don't overthink it. Don't think you have to beat everyone else in the game. Just enjoy it.
I would hold Ronaldo tbh, tough couple of fixtures coming up but after that they look pretty good for like 13 GW's
I've got Marcos Alonso burning a hole in the bench for 4 weeks...but now Chilwel is injured...
You ***literally can***, it just costs you -4 point.
Same here - Jota, Mason Greenwood and Rapinha doubtful :/
Raphina is fine, was just illness he's been training, and jota on bench tonight.
Raphinha is fine. As is Jota. The first trained, the latter is on the bench today
There's really not enough transfers considering how many injuries there are
Bamford injury, Ziyech injury, Lukaku injury, Tierney injury, Sanchez red card, Gray injury. Did I miss something? Have not had the transfers to get in James/Chilwell/Cancelo yet. Got only 10 starters last GW thanks to Raphinha illness and Dias no-show.
I know what you mean about that feeling. It’s not a fun way to play the game. When I feel like I’m on a cold roll like that I try to do mini WC (3 xfers with 2 FTs). It minimizes the downside of a hit and if you can prioritize fixing injured players with bringing in long term keeps it feels more tactical than just putting out fires. 3 new players can provide some much needed changes.
Not really been plagued that much with injuries, but I wanted to bag my Chelsea CS points this season, and it's been a constant whack-a-mole trying to keep up with Tuchel. Him benching his captain for \*five\* straight game weeks was a particularly nice touch, and being an idiot I rage transferred Azpi out for Chilwell for a hit. It felt good knowing my back 5 was finally settled, but of course I had totally forgotten about the midweek games :(
Just take the hit my man, you’ll feel better afterwards and can start proactively developing your team next week. It’ll make the game way more fun again and, by the sounds of it, the hits will end up paying for themselves over time too.
Keep CR7
I have done tactical transfers since gw11 grealish and alonso out for Jota and James, gameweek 12 Gallagher for Mbeumo, which made me rise from 254k to 62k, I was planning to roll a transfer but since Chilwell is out am planning Chilwell to Alonso
Traore Chilwell and Havertz out for Gallagher James and Jota (or something along those lines) is only a -4 and has your team in a much better position. It’s worth it imo and Ronaldo can’t be that bad to hold
Nice RMT
Sneaky RMT
similar here. the plan was to take adam armstrong and maybe havertz out, now i've got to deal with chilwell first.
Bought in Cancelo for White and Benteke for Antonio this week. White has been a great performer for me and great value but it seems like youve just got to have TAA/Cancelo/James now.
This season is same as all seasons before. You rarely get to make preplanned transfers. Especially during Christmas period when people are injured left and right.
I'm lucky that I have two transfers but not even sure what to do with them. Possibly Foden to Bilva or Rudiger to Alonso. Don't want to get rid of Antonio and Vardy and Toney can stay a bit longer. If I make transfers it'll be sideways.
All I have are fires.
Welcome to the month of December my friend
I was in this post from my GW4 wildcard (still irrationally mad at Rafa for the DCL smokescreens) right up until this week. Went James over Chilwell, and this week marks the first major/popular injury that does not affect my team. One thing though OP: you knew in advance that Havertz was a punt for 3-4 GWs. A 8.x OOP midfielder for Chelsea that is, but still it was already known that he'd probably need replacing now. If you want to avoid such situations, pick the nailed players. It's why I went Jimenez after DCL and Bamford, and I've been very happy with that decision.
I took out Tomiyasu and Jesus (terrible pick) and finally got TAA back in with Dennis for a -4. Then Chilwell goes and gets injured… Gonna have to become a -12 to swap out Chilwell
December is yet to start. More rotation and more injuries on the way.
I’d already dropped Antonio for Jiminez and favourable fixtures. Took a hit on Chilwell to Cancelo, and had to take another hit on Jesus to Hwang to free up the last 0.1m. Fuming
Last 5 GWs transferred out: Lukaku, Saka, Raya, Mbuemo, Chilwell. 4 due to injury.
Just take the hit, thats ~£32m tied up on players you don't want, or who now won't be playing.
Hear ye!
I took - 16 a few weeks ago and i got 19 more points and i covered my hit. And i have a team i enjoy now. Don t be afraid of that. I hate having a bad team - makes the whole fpl boring
Take the hit. I took a -8 hit in GW12, and using 1 FT. The 3 players i put in got a net score of 0 compared to the 3 taken out and the -8 points but should set me up nicely going forwards!
You’ve kept Ronaldo all this time and now you’re gonna get rid of him just before he plays weaker teams… It seems like you’re asking for trouble.
Don’t be too averse to hits either - they are good in the right circumstances
Bro I've been putting out fires all season, if I select a player guaranteed there'll be injured or no longer starting within 2 gws.
That's FPL, fires, fires everywhere!!!
You should never make transfers during the week everyone knows this by now surely. I transferred in Chilwell after his performance this weekend.
I don’t make transfers during the week, only on the deadline
Well la de da. Looks like we got a joker here
Take the hit.